Free Republic

Below is my column in the Messenger on the odds of Trump going to jail (as opposed to being convicted) and an interesting option for President Joe Biden: pledge to commute Trump’s sentence.Here is the column:“Can you give me the odds?” The question from a foreign correspondent this week was blunt but understandable. Legal analysts often are asked to give the percentages on a case’s outcome or conviction. This reporter wanted the odds on Trump being convicted. As in the past, I declined to offer a spread. For most of us, convictions are what gamblers call “off the board” bets;...

Fatal accidents account for a significant number of deaths in the U.S. every year. For example, nearly 43,000 Americans died in traffic accidents in 2021.However, as Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu explains below, without the right context, it can be difficult to properly interpret these figures.To help you understand your chances, we’ve compiled data from the National Safety Council, and visualized the lifetime odds of dying from various accidents.Data and MethodologyThe lifetime odds presented in this graphic were estimated by dividing the one-year odds of dying by the life expectancy of a person born in 2020 (77 years).Additionally, these numbers are...

The debate between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz on Tuesday night shifted the betting odds 20 points in favor of Oz, according to PredictIt betting market. Before the debate started, Oz was favored to win the Pennsylvania Senate seat by 53/100 cents. After the one-on-one, those odds dramatically changed. Wednesday morning odds showed Oz favored by 64/100 cents, an 11 point swing.

Emblem Road rallied with a wide, sweeping move on the outside to win the $20 million Saudi Cup at 99-1 odds on Saturday, beating Bob Baffert-trained Country Grammar by a half-length. Ridden by Wiggy Ramos, Emblem Road ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.52 in the world's richest horse race at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh. It was a huge win for Saudi-based trainer Mitab Almulawah and owner Prince Saud Bin Salman Abdulaziz. Their other entry, Making Miracles, finished fourth. U.S.-bred Emblem Road has seven wins in nine career starts. His sire, Quality Road, was a standout who won the Florida...

Joe Biden 29.41% Donald Trump 70.92%

US stock market researchers found that President Trump has an 87% chance of winning the presidential election in November.Charles Payne went on with Stuart Varney this morning to discuss the recent market poll that gives President Trump an 87% chance of winning. And this poll was taken before the Joe Biden Crime Family “laptop from hell” reporting broke this week.The Socionomic Institute released their polling findings earlier this week. Via CBS: The research, going back to George Washington, found 16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than...

The most unusual Triple Crown horse racing season in history will finally continue Saturday, Sept. 5 (7:01 p.m. ET post time, NBC) with the 2020 Kentucky Derby. The first jewel was postponed from the first Saturday in May, which now makes it the second jewel. Tiz The Law, which cruised to victory at the Belmont Stakes on June 20 and followed that up with another big win at the Travers Stakes on Aug. 8, will be looking to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive and well ahead of the Preakness (Oct. 3), trading his home-state tracks in New York for...

In a trend that began in July, the once-slumping odds that President Trump will win reelection have risen from 36% to an average of 50-50, with some gambling sites giving him a better than even chance of winning. Oddschecker’s Pete Watt said Friday that Trump’s odds haven’t been this positive since May 28, 92 days ago, and come on the morning after the president accepted the Republican Party’s nomination to run for a second term. Joe Biden still has a slight edge with the gamblers, at 52%. He had a 63% chance of winning in mid-July. “This election has ebbed...

Betting odds have shifted dramatically toward President Donald Trump, ...

The first jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown will look a bit different in 2020. Instead of the Kentucky Derby acting as the opening event, the Belmont Stakes—typically the final leg of the Triple Crown—will kick off the sport's championship season. Oddsmakers aren't too hopeful fans will see the first Triple Crown winner since Justify accomplish the feat in 2018. Bovada lists the odds of a Triple Crown winner in 2020 at +700 (bet $100 to win $700) while the odds that there will not be a Triple Crown winner are -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100). That doesn't mean...

I'm 68 y/o, not in bad shape, but not excellent, have historical issues. I live in CA (central valley). Bottom line: I'm not convinced I'll contract COVID, but I do believe I won't survive it if I do. This has me getting my life in order, in my case, a herculean effort to get it done before possible contraction. Need to brush up my will, personal finances, administration..........then there are physical assets, misc. deals I'm working on. It's a huge job and I must get it done quickly. Lastly, I'm going to show my daughter how to give FR updates...

AN ASTEROID which came crashing into Earth and NASA had no idea it was coming reiterates the need to keep a closer eye on the sky in case a massive space rock comes hurtling towards our planet. A small asteroid shot towards Earth at 14.9 kilometres per second, and NASA admitted it did not know it was coming. The space rock known as 2019 MO was just three metres wide and exploded when it hit the planet’s atmosphere on 22 July above the Caribbean, but the way it approached unexpectedly reaffirms the need for more eyes on the sky. NASA...

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) suggests the odds of passing gun control when the Senate reconvenes in September are better than ever. Toomey is specifically referencing the gun control bill he and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) first pushed after the December 14, 2012, Sandy Hook Elementary School attack; a bill which they have now revived as part of their push for universal background checks. CBS News reports that Toomey has been talking with White House about he and Manchin’s bill, and Politico quotes Toomey saying the chances of passage now are “better than they have ever looked at any time.”

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's early picks for the Kentucky Derby. Omaha Beach 7-2 Roadster 7-2 Improbable 5-1 Maximum Security 6-1 Game Winner 7-1 Tacitus 14-1 By My Standards 14-1 War of Will 16-1 Code of Honor 18-1 Vekoma 20-1 Spinoff 25-1 Win Win Win 25-1 Anothertwistafate 40-1 Haikal 50-1 Long Range Toddy 50-1 Cutting Humor 60-1 Tax 60-1 Bodeexpress 100-1 Country House 100-1 Gray Magician 100-1 Master Fencer 100-1 Plus Que Parfait 100-1 Signalman 200-1 Sueno 300-1

Since 2007, Joey Chestnut has dominated the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, winning the event 10 times in the last 11 years. The 34-year-old professional competitive eater, nicknamed Jaws, will look to defend his title this Wednesday and win the $10,000 top prize in New York City. Chestnut is a -550 favorite on the hot dog eating contest odds with the field going off at +325 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In the days leading up to the event, Chestnut has shown plenty of confidence, claiming that he will be shooting for the world record in this event on...

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds PP Horse *ML Odds 1 Justify 4/5 2 Free Drop Billy 30/1 3 Bravazo 8/1 4 Hofburg 9/2 5 Restoring Hope 30/1 6 Gronkowski 12/1 7 Tenfold 12/1 8 Vino Rosso 8/1 9 Noble Indy 30/1 10 Blended Citizen 15/1 *Morning Line Odds are created by Belmont Park Head Oddsmaker Eric Donovan

2018 PREAKNESS STAKES ODDS (5/19/18) Post Position Horse *ML Odds 1 Quip 12/1 2 Lone Sailor 15/1 3 Sporting Chance 30/1 4 Diamond King 30/1 5 Good Magic 3/1 6 Tenfold 20/1 7 Justify 1/2 8 Bravazo 20/1 *Morning Line Odds are created by Pimlico Race Course oddsmaker Keith Feustle

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds The 2018 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday May 5 from Churchill Downs, Kentucky. The first leg of the Triple Crown is known as “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” and certain horses are already receiving interest at the betting counter. Sportsbook.ag is offering up Fixed Odds for the 2018 event and listed below are the early entries that are expected to be part of the 20-horse field. Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/5/18) - per Sportsbook.ag Justify 5/2 Bolt D'oro 7/2 Magnum Moon 4/1 Mendelssohn 11/2 Audible 6/1 My Boy Jack 6/1 Good Magic...

Odds to win 2017 Kentucky Derby (5/6/17) - per Sportsbook.ag Always Dreaming 4/1 Mc Craken 17/4 Classic Empire 5/1 Irish War Cry 8/1 Gormley 10/1 Gunnevera 10/1 Girvin 14/1 Irap 15/1 Practical Joke 15/1 Hence 20/1 Lookin At Lee 20/1 Patch 20/1 Tapwrit 20/1 Thunder Snow 20/1 Battle of Midway 30/1 J Boys Echo 30/1 State of Honor 40/1 Untrapped 40/1 Fast and Accurate 50/1 Sonneteer 50/1 Will there be a 2017 Triple Crown Winner? - per Sportsbook.ag Yes +550 No -850

Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,President-elect Trump won 306 electoral votes versus Hillary Clinton's 232 (24% less electoral votes).  Similar to 2000, the surrendering party then reversed course and put the nation through a recount, just for the sake of it.  What are the odds that such an exercise here would yield successful for Ms. Clinton?  Based on statistical randomness of re-assessing voter intent, the chance of Hillary emerging as the victor is far less than 10%. Anything can happen, but these lean odds do not rise to the level of putting our peaceful democracy into the hands of a temptuous recount scheme...