The Next Pope: Who Are The Frontrunners to Succeed Pope Francis?

With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the Catholic Church is preparing for a transition that will determine its direction for the foreseeable future. As the first Latin American pope, Francis brought significant change as Bishop of Rome, focusing on social justice, environmental issues and a more inclusive Church.

Now, the College of Cardinals prepares to gather at the Vatican for a conclave that will shape the Church's future. Their choice won't just name the next leader of 1.37 billion Catholics—it will set the course for doctrine, transparency and the Church's outreach to its flock.

Will the next pope continue Francis's progressive reforms, or will the cardinals pivot back toward theological conservatism? The answer will be clear when the symbolic white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel.

The next pope will face a Church shaped by Francis's appointments and reforms. His tenure saw major structural changes, including the decentralization of the Vatican's power and the appointment of more non-European cardinals than any of his predecessors.

However, his governance style has also left the College of Cardinals in an uncertain position. "He selected the majority of the cardinals who possess the right to vote," said Ulrich Lehner, professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame.

"However, his approach to governance, characterized by unilateral decisions made without consultation with the College of Cardinals, has made it impossible to form interpersonal relationships among them."

A key issue for the conclave will be Francis's handling of sexual abuse cases, which has divided Church leaders. "Most importantly, can the voters trust that the person they elect is not a sexual predator who could be exposed?" Lehner asked.

Here are the front runners:

* Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Currently the betting favorite at 3:1 odds, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is considered a strong contender to continue Pope Francis’s progressive agenda. Tagle, an advocate for inclusion and evangelization, has significant experience leading the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and was a trusted figure in Francis’s inner circle.

Overall, I think the fact that by my count over 100 of the eligible papal electors were appointed by Francis could have a profound effect on the outcome,” said Cristina Traina, a professor at Northwestern University. “That is, we may not get a pendulum swing away from Francis’ priorities.”

Tagle’s Asian heritage also makes him a compelling choice, as Catholicism is growing rapidly on the continent, particularly in the Philippines, one of the most populous Catholic countries in the world.

If elected, Tagle would be the first pope fluent in English, which could enhance his ability to connect with diverse congregations worldwide.

* Pietro Parolin (Italy)

At 4:1 odds, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is one of the most experienced Vatican officials. In his role as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, he has played a major part in diplomatic affairs, including sensitive negotiations with China and Middle Eastern governments.

Parolin is seen as a moderate theological candidate, someone who could provide stability while still maintaining some of Francis’s reforms. His deep ties to Vatican bureaucracy make him a strong contender for those who favor continuity.

* Peter Turkson (Ghana)

Currently at 5:1 odds in betting markets, Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, is a well-known figure in the Church’s social justice circles. As former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, Turkson has been vocal on issues such as climate change, poverty and economic justice.

Turkson’s election would mark a historic moment as the first African pope in centuries. The most recent African pontiff was Pope Gelasius, who served from 492 to 496 AD. Born in Rome to African parents, Gelasius was known for his extensive theological writings and strong advocacy for charity and justice for the poor.

* Peter Erdő (Hungary)

A leading conservative candidate, Cardinal Peter Erdő, 72, is currently at 6:1 odds. A respected canon law scholar, Erdő has been a strong advocate for traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He previously served as head of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences and has emphasized theological orthodoxy.

For those seeking a return to the conservatism of John Paul II and Benedict XVI, Erdő would represent a major shift away from Francis’s approach.

(We all want Cardinal Péter Erdő to be the next Pope.)

He’s an ally of traditional Catholic values, Erdő has previously resisted pressure to liberalize the Church’s stance on communion for divorced couples and has drawn praise for defending Europe’s Christian roots. Viewed as pragmatic and diplomatically competent, he’s also fluent in multiple languages—a bridge builder without compromising the truth.

(Matteo Zuppi would be good.)

Zuppi has downplayed Church sex abuse scandals in Italy while pushing for interfaith compromise and cultural relativism. Conservatives view him as a walking extension of the current leftist Vatican regime.

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