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Take a look at Ras' homepage... Look at the closest races, or if you prefer, all of the races they polled. Pretty darned accurate. http://rasmussenreports.com/

Despite exhaustion and sleep deprivation, we want to take a few minutes today to a very quick and very preliminary look at how the preelection polls did as compared to yesterday's results. Since some precincts are still out and some absentee and provisional ballots are still being coutned, this quick looks is inherently preliminary and subject to change, but at the statewide level, the average of the last five polls in each races did reasonably well. In every case that we have examined so far, the leader in the average of the preelection polls was the leader on election day....

HOUSE: 222 D, 213 R (D +19) SENATE: 51R, 49D (D+4)http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/11/rcp_projections.html

by Robert Novak Posted Nov 06, 2006 November 6, 2006 Washington, DC Special Edition To: Our Readers Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them. In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed...

K-Lo has asked a bunch of us to make predictions, I sent mine in. But I picked the brain of a very good friend of mine who follows these things with much personal and professional passion. He is admittedly an optimist in favor of the GOP. FWIW, here's the relevant bit from his email (elipses mine): All right JG, ever the optimist... 1) What will the House look like? (Number split and any additional commentary.) House: GOP loses 13 seats, pick up 1. Net -12 (see bottom for breakdown) 2) What will the Senate look like? (Again, number split and...

Stuart Rothenberg updated his House rankings a few days ago. And yowsa!! He sees 34 to 40 seats flipping. That is quite a large number.But take a look at the assignment of races to each category. I don't think those numbers add up. PURE TOSS-UP (20 R, 0 D)CA 11 (Pombo, R) CT 2 (Simmons, R) CT 4 (Shays, R) FL 16 (Open; Foley, R) FL 22 (Shaw, R) IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R) KS 2 (Ryun, R) MN 1 (Gutknecht, R) MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R) NM 1 (Wilson, R) NY 20 (Sweeney, R) NY 26 (Reynolds, R)...

With one day to go, the situation is still very fluid. This weekend, we had a potentially pro-GOP event, the sentencing of Saddam Hussein, and a potentially pro-Democratic event, the unveiling of Rev. Ted Haggard's family values hypocrisy. The Crystal Ball's initial guess was that both news headlines, while attention-grabbing, would have only a marginal impact on the vote (and it's also worth noting that a record percentage of voters will have voted early this year, softening any impact of the last-minute headlines). Yet something is happening. Both the Washington Post/ABC News poll and the new Pew survey show a...

Polling Data Poll Date Sample GOP (R) Dems (D) Spread RCP Average 11/01 - 11/05 - 41.3 52.7 Dems +11.4 CNN 11/03 - 11/05 LV 38 58 Dems +20.0 USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/05 1362 LV 44 51 Dems +7.0 ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0 Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0 Newsweek 11/02 - 11/03 838 LV 38 54 Dems +16.0 Time 11/01 - 11/03 679 LV 40 55 Dems +15.0