Posted on 11/11/2006 8:24:50 AM PST by NYC Republican
Take a look at Ras' homepage... Look at the closest races, or if you prefer, all of the races they polled. Pretty darned accurate. http://rasmussenreports.com/
This answered a big question of mine about the ability of pollers to do accurate stuff.
To think, I almost fell for the polyanna, state of denial I heard here... Can you say conspiracy? While it's obvious there's a huge liberal bias, to think that all of the media outlets are in cahoots to lie, come on...
This ranks up there with our esteemed, fellow FReepers thinking that the MSM is dying, and thinking Hillary has no shot... Both of these assertions are ignorant, misguided, and utterly foolish. OK, enough of my rant.
They knew the results way before the actual voting on Nov.7.
Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.
Almost all of them were close or in the ballpark... I'm disappointed that I was given a false sense of assurance here... Next time, count me as a firm believer in the polls. LS, sorry bud, but the LS rule just can't ever be injected into any threads in '08... actually you can, but you'll be reminded of '06 time and again.
OK Borat, nice try. Of course we need to vote, all I'm saying is stop discounting all of the polls, sounding conspiritorial (is that a word?)
The truth is that they aren't always accurate. Take a look at the 2000 elections. If they had been Kerry would've won. Polling is far from being an accurate science. The trouble is that everyone wants to know ahead of time what is going to happen and it's just impossible to really know.
| STATE | CANDIDATES | ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS AS OF 9:30AM on 11/9/06 | FINAL RASMUSSEN POLL |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZONA | Jon Kyl (R) | 53% | 51% |
| Jim Pederson (D) | 44% | 42% | |
| CALIFORNIA | Dianne Feinstein (D) | 60% | 58% |
| Richard Mountjoy (R) | 35% | 35% | |
| CONNECTICUT | Joseph Lieberman (I) | 50% | 48% |
| Ned Lamont (D) | 40% | 40% | |
| Alan Schlesinger (R) | 10% | 9% | |
| FLORIDA | Bill Nelson (D) | 60% | 54% |
| Katherine Harris (R) | 38% | 37% | |
| HAWAII | Daniel Akaka (D) | 61% | 58% |
| Republican Candidate | 37% | 30% | |
| MAINE | Olympia Snowe (R) | 74% | 70% |
| Jean Hay Bright (D) | 21% | 24% | |
| MARYLAND | Ben Cardin (D) | 55% | 50% |
| Michael Steele (R) | 44% | 45% | |
| MICHIGAN | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 57% | 56% |
| Mike Bouchard (R) | 41% | 40% | |
| MINNESOTA | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 58% | 54% |
| Mark Kennedy (R) | 38% | 40% | |
| MISSOURI | Jim Talent (R) | 47% | 49% |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | 49% | 48% | |
| MONTANA | Jon Tester (D) | 49% | 50% |
| Conrad Burns (R) | 48% | 48% | |
| NEBRASKA | Ben Nelson (D) | 64% | 54% |
| Pete Ricketts (R) | 36% | 34% | |
| NEVADA | John Ensign (R) | 55% | 52% |
| Jack Carter (D) | 41% | 43% | |
| Robert Menendez (D) | 53% | 48% | |
| Tom Kean, Jr. (R) | 45% | 43% | |
| NEW MEXICO | Jeff Bingaman (D) | 71% | 56% |
| Allen McCollough (R) | 29% | 32% | |
| OHIO | Sherrod Brown (D) | 56% | 54% |
| Mike DeWine (R) | 44% | 43% | |
| PENNSYLVANIA | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | 59% | 55% |
| Rick Santorum (R) | 41% | 42% | |
| RHODE ISLAND | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) | 53% | 52% |
| Lincoln Chafee (R) | 47% | 44% | |
| TENNESSEE | Bob Corker (R) | 51% | 51% |
| Harold Ford (D) | 48% | 47% | |
| TEXAS | Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | 62% | 60% |
| Barbara A. Radnofsky (D) | 36% | 34% | |
| VERMONT | Bernie Sanders (I) | 65% | 62% |
| Richard Tarrant (R) | 32% | 34% | |
| VIRGINIA | George Allen (R) | 49% | 49% |
| James Webb (D) | 50% | 49% | |
| WASHINGTON | Maria Cantwell (D) | 57% | 54% |
| Mike McGavick (R) | 39% | 42% | |
| WEST VIRGINIA | Robert Byrd (D) | 64% | 63% |
| John Raese (R) | 34% | 30% | |
| WISCONSIN | Herb Kohl (D) | 67% | 64% |
| Robert Gerald Lorge (R) | 30% | 25% | |
the real lesson here is that the so-called "undecided" went hugely for the Dems.
Now why that happened is a differnet question.
I do think most of the polls are really biased until the last week before the election. SurveyUSA is famous for doing that.
I did not get worried until the polls got worse in the end, instead of better.
Polling is very accurate when those being polled are those who count the votes.
Thanks for printing that. Pretty darn accurate, no?
I, for one, will open up a can of whoopass on you
Thanks for the link. I remembered Rasmussen, Pew and Mason-Dixon failing to catch the late shift to Gore in 2000, convincing Bush/Rove to quit campaigning on the Thursday prior to the election, perhaps costing the popular vote and nearly the election. Only Zogby caught it. The data convinces me the state of the art has advanced a long way in six years.
"To think, I almost fell for the polyanna, state of denial I heard here.."
Well at least you would be in good company--Try President Bush--and Carl Rove for starters!!
I never understood why people get upset at polls. The pollsters want to be accurate so they make more money.
POlls in the end show a snapshot of the election at one moment in time. In the end polls are our friend and should be used to help us
Nah, part of the reason we lost is we didn't trust the polls. We said that the polls are all wrong, we are fine, we don't need to do any corrections because after all the polls are wrong and we are really winning, so let's just keep forward with the same strategy.
Polls aren't useful for all that much, but when your message isn't working, polls do pick that up, if you listen to them.
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