This answered a big question of mine about the ability of pollers to do accurate stuff.
To think, I almost fell for the polyanna, state of denial I heard here... Can you say conspiracy? While it's obvious there's a huge liberal bias, to think that all of the media outlets are in cahoots to lie, come on...
This ranks up there with our esteemed, fellow FReepers thinking that the MSM is dying, and thinking Hillary has no shot... Both of these assertions are ignorant, misguided, and utterly foolish. OK, enough of my rant.
They knew the results way before the actual voting on Nov.7.
Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.
| STATE | CANDIDATES | ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS AS OF 9:30AM on 11/9/06 | FINAL RASMUSSEN POLL |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZONA | Jon Kyl (R) | 53% | 51% |
| Jim Pederson (D) | 44% | 42% | |
| CALIFORNIA | Dianne Feinstein (D) | 60% | 58% |
| Richard Mountjoy (R) | 35% | 35% | |
| CONNECTICUT | Joseph Lieberman (I) | 50% | 48% |
| Ned Lamont (D) | 40% | 40% | |
| Alan Schlesinger (R) | 10% | 9% | |
| FLORIDA | Bill Nelson (D) | 60% | 54% |
| Katherine Harris (R) | 38% | 37% | |
| HAWAII | Daniel Akaka (D) | 61% | 58% |
| Republican Candidate | 37% | 30% | |
| MAINE | Olympia Snowe (R) | 74% | 70% |
| Jean Hay Bright (D) | 21% | 24% | |
| MARYLAND | Ben Cardin (D) | 55% | 50% |
| Michael Steele (R) | 44% | 45% | |
| MICHIGAN | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 57% | 56% |
| Mike Bouchard (R) | 41% | 40% | |
| MINNESOTA | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 58% | 54% |
| Mark Kennedy (R) | 38% | 40% | |
| MISSOURI | Jim Talent (R) | 47% | 49% |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | 49% | 48% | |
| MONTANA | Jon Tester (D) | 49% | 50% |
| Conrad Burns (R) | 48% | 48% | |
| NEBRASKA | Ben Nelson (D) | 64% | 54% |
| Pete Ricketts (R) | 36% | 34% | |
| NEVADA | John Ensign (R) | 55% | 52% |
| Jack Carter (D) | 41% | 43% | |
| Robert Menendez (D) | 53% | 48% | |
| Tom Kean, Jr. (R) | 45% | 43% | |
| NEW MEXICO | Jeff Bingaman (D) | 71% | 56% |
| Allen McCollough (R) | 29% | 32% | |
| OHIO | Sherrod Brown (D) | 56% | 54% |
| Mike DeWine (R) | 44% | 43% | |
| PENNSYLVANIA | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | 59% | 55% |
| Rick Santorum (R) | 41% | 42% | |
| RHODE ISLAND | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) | 53% | 52% |
| Lincoln Chafee (R) | 47% | 44% | |
| TENNESSEE | Bob Corker (R) | 51% | 51% |
| Harold Ford (D) | 48% | 47% | |
| TEXAS | Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | 62% | 60% |
| Barbara A. Radnofsky (D) | 36% | 34% | |
| VERMONT | Bernie Sanders (I) | 65% | 62% |
| Richard Tarrant (R) | 32% | 34% | |
| VIRGINIA | George Allen (R) | 49% | 49% |
| James Webb (D) | 50% | 49% | |
| WASHINGTON | Maria Cantwell (D) | 57% | 54% |
| Mike McGavick (R) | 39% | 42% | |
| WEST VIRGINIA | Robert Byrd (D) | 64% | 63% |
| John Raese (R) | 34% | 30% | |
| WISCONSIN | Herb Kohl (D) | 67% | 64% |
| Robert Gerald Lorge (R) | 30% | 25% | |
the real lesson here is that the so-called "undecided" went hugely for the Dems.
Now why that happened is a differnet question.
Thanks for the link. I remembered Rasmussen, Pew and Mason-Dixon failing to catch the late shift to Gore in 2000, convincing Bush/Rove to quit campaigning on the Thursday prior to the election, perhaps costing the popular vote and nearly the election. Only Zogby caught it. The data convinces me the state of the art has advanced a long way in six years.
How accurate was your "LS Rule" this year ("Take any poll and add 5-10 points to the GOP side")? 100% wrong?
I read somewhere that 25 million Republicans voted and 32 million Democrats voted. If true, what is the problem? Thanks to Savage and his radio program, he caused at least some Repubs to stay home. He pulled the 21st century's first Perotism. (Perotism = divide the Republican vote and Democrats win)
Good job. Thanks for this public service. Freeperland was super-denial land over the past few weeks, and these resutls should be an eye-opener.
Since we know pollsters 'tighten up' the polls right at the end, so they look accurate in analysis's like this one, I want a comparison from two weeks out.
Nancee
Just blind luck. ;)
Wow, the *final* poll was pretty close. But who cares about the final poll? What about the polls 1, 2 and 4 weeks out?
The 1948 Dewey defeats Truman poll was done in 1948, and since then, sampling techniques have radically improved. The 1948 polls used phone sampling, and many poorer people in 1948 didn't have telephones. Not as bad as the famous Literary Digest poll in the 1930s, but still not good.
Polling has gotten more accurate, but there have been some hiccups. First, in many cases when a Black is running against a white candidate, many people will lie about supporting the black candidate. However, this isn't bad sampling technique, because if you asked everyone in the voting area who'd they'd vote for, you'd probably get an overrepresentation of blacks.
In the early to mid 1990s, there was another problem with phone polling. Up until then, the middle digits of all area codes had been 0 or 1, but the explosive growth in internet, faxes and the like caused new area codes to be introduced. Several national pollsters omitted these area codes, either because they had on file the old numbers with the old area codes or their automated equipment couldn't dial the new area codes. This of course eliminated suburban and exurban areas, as inner cities kept the old area codes and rural areas didn't get new area codes either. But this has long since been corrected, and was probably only a problem around the 1992-1996 cycles.
I don't buy the line that everyone wants to be a winner, so a GOPer will vote for a Dem in that scenario? BS
the puzzle is why Rove acted like he had "68 polls" that disagreed with the "public polls" and then had no apparent strategy to cope with the shots below the water line ,like Foley.