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Generic Congressional Ballot: Final Polls 2006
Real Clear Politics ^
| 11/5/06
Posted on 11/06/2006 8:10:50 AM PST by finnman69
Polling Data Poll Date Sample GOP (R) Dems (D) Spread RCP Average 11/01 - 11/05 - 41.3 52.7 Dems +11.4 CNN 11/03 - 11/05 LV 38 58 Dems +20.0 USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/05 1362 LV 44 51 Dems +7.0 ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0 Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0 Newsweek 11/02 - 11/03 838 LV 38 54 Dems +16.0 Time 11/01 - 11/03 679 LV 40 55 Dems +15.0
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; final2006polls; finalpolls2006
Day before election polls. Some of these pollsters are going to be very very wrong.
Generic Congressional Ballot
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| Poll |
Date |
Sample |
GOP (R) |
Dems (D) |
Spread |
| RCP Average |
11/01 - 11/05 |
- |
41.3 |
52.7 |
Dems +11.4 |
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| CNN |
11/03 - 11/05 |
LV |
38 |
58 |
Dems +20.0 |
| USA Today/Gallup |
11/02 - 11/05 |
1362 LV |
44 |
51 |
Dems +7.0 |
| ABC News/Wash Post |
11/01 - 11/04 |
LV |
45 |
51 |
Dems +6.0 |
| Pew Research |
11/01 - 11/04 |
LV |
43 |
47 |
Dems +4.0 |
| Newsweek |
11/02 - 11/03 |
838 LV |
38 |
54 |
Dems +16.0 |
| Time |
11/01 - 11/03 |
679 LV |
40 |
55 |
Dems +15.0 |
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1
posted on
11/06/2006 8:10:50 AM PST
by
finnman69
To: finnman69
This link shows just how inexact a science polling is and why political coverage shouldn't be as much about the poll horserace. None of these numbers look good but the fact that their is a 14 point spread suggests these pollsters don't have their act together.
To: finnman69
Amazing, from 4 to 20%. I assume they all claim a +/-3% error. More likely a +/-20% error.
To: finnman69
Looks more like a level-of-bias indicator than a list of polls.
4
posted on
11/06/2006 8:18:52 AM PST
by
rivercat
(The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers. - William Shakespeare)
To: dcam
Exactly, certainly CNN, Time and Newsweek found what they wanted to find.
5
posted on
11/06/2006 8:21:28 AM PST
by
JLS
To: SmoothTalker
The average Dem lead is 11.3, but the standard deviation is 6.5, which makes the numbers so volatile that they're practically random. Plus the trend is massively favoring the GOP.
6
posted on
11/06/2006 8:24:18 AM PST
by
Question Liberal Authority
(If Not For George W Bush, Saddam Hussein Would Be In Charge Of Iraq Today AND He Would Have NUKES.)
To: finnman69
These are averages of averages, a poor but sometimes useful tool.
1) some of the polls/data are dated and do not reflect recent changes towards the R's.
2) These numbers tend toward overall attitudes as opposed to local leaning where locals tend to vote for incumbents.
To: Question Liberal Authority
So much for trends. #$#$#$
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