Posted on 11/06/2006 12:46:04 PM PST by meg88
K-Lo has asked a bunch of us to make predictions, I sent mine in. But I picked the brain of a very good friend of mine who follows these things with much personal and professional passion. He is admittedly an optimist in favor of the GOP. FWIW, here's the relevant bit from his email (elipses mine):
All right JG, ever the optimist...
1) What will the House look like? (Number split and any additional commentary.)
House: GOP loses 13 seats, pick up 1. Net -12 (see bottom for breakdown)
2) What will the Senate look like? (Again, number split and any additional commentary.)
Senate: Lose these two seats (OH, PA). Hold either RI or MT. MO, VA, TN all hold. We pick up one Dem senate seat (MD or NJ, i think the former). Net results. Dems plus 3.
3) Two surprises of the night. Texas 22 and Steele. But i've got to tell you, the biggest upset would be John Hostettler in Indiana-8. Every sage has said the race is over. But Hostettler went from 23 points down to seven about three weeks ago, and there's only been one two week old RT Strategies poll since showing him down .... He didn't start advertising until 2 weeks ago and if any members are going to be helped by a GOP generic/rally it's those in solid red districts. Writeup here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/indiana_8-33.html . While his Pelosi radical homosexual agenda radio ad got a lot of ridicule, nationwide, he's said and done crazier things and always getting reelected....
I think the interesting story here is the decline of accurate polling, particularly in House races. The RT/Majority Watch folks are going to look like fools, and they are the only reason people think that thirty or forty seats are in play. And the generic polling, which has already shown itself to be an incredibly flighty number, will be shown to be even more useless.
Here's my rationale for the House:
Here are the toss up and lean races. An L means i think we lose it. W-L means it's a tossup. W means we win it. The L-Ws are the only Dem seats in play.
For the 13 R losses, I see: 6 Ls, 12 tossups so I'm just betting we win four of those races. And frankly to hold the house, we need to win just four of those 18 seats without winning one D seat which i think is very very doable, in the total absence of new polling numbers in a lot of these R-leaning districts...
Toss Up (13) Leans GOP (22) TX-22: Open (DeLay) W-L >> NM-1: Wilson W-L >> MN-6: Open (Kennedy) W AZ-8: Open (Kolbe) L NH-2: Bass W >> NY-26: Reynolds W FL-16: Open (Foley) L IN-2: Chocola W CT-2: Simmons W IN-8: Hostettler W-L IN-9: Sodrel W WI-8: Open (Green) W PA-10: Sherwood L PA-6: Gerlach W WA-8: Reichert W CO-7: Open (Beauprez) L CT-4: Shays W VA-2: Drake W OH-18: Open (Ney) L CT-5: Johnson W-L FL-22: Shaw W PA-7: Weldon W-L IL-6: Open (Hyde) W-L KY-3: Northup W-L NY-24: Open (Boehlert) W FL-13: Open (Harris) W-L CO-4: Musgrave W IA-1: Open (Nussle) L AZ-5: Hayworth W KY-4: Davis W NC-11: Taylor W-L OH-1: Chabot W PA-4: Hart W NY-20: Sweeney << W-L CA-11: Pombo << W NV-2: Open (Gibbons) W OH-15: Pryce << W-L OH-2: Schmidt << W-L NY-25: Walsh W AZ-1: Renzi W NY-29: Kuhl W NY-19: Kelly W PA-8: Fitzpatrick W
CA-4: DoolittleW
NV-3: Porter W
ID-1: Sali W
MN-1: Gutknecht W
NJ-7: Ferguson W Democratic Seats Leans GOP (0) Toss Up (2) Leans Dem (4) GA-12: Barrow < IL-8: Bean L-W GA-8: Marshall << L-W VT-AL: Open (Sanders) IA-3: Boswell IN-7: Carson L-W
Hey, Jonah - from your lips to God's ears!
Everyone vote!!!!!!!
I wish people would stop counting DeWine out. My gosh, the ONLY way he can lose is if the REPUBLICANS don't support him, and so far (one month of canvassing) I've seen ZERO "DeWine hatred." Even hard-core peeps who were torching him for his stupid "Gang of 14" have sucked it up a LONG time ago and started working for him. He'll squeak this out. I still think Blackwell will surprise, and he was further back than DeWine.
I think he's largely right. I've been pessimistic about the House for a long time...but if you break it down race by race, they have all been leaning back toward us. If we lose, it won't be by much.
I see some of the girlie-men are starting to come around.
..many are underestimating Ohio's great GOTV...
Yeah,where's that Lil Bitch Novack!
If the GOP keeps BOTH houses, there will be mass Democrat suicides.
Generally seems reasonable - he's a bit too optimistic about the Senate, I think, Dems pick up 4.
Anyone else notice that Goldberg added (-1) to 2 and got 3? His predictions yield a net gain of only ONE for the Demonrats in the Senate, not three!
I've never been a wiz at math, but doesn't this work out to only a plus 2 for the Dems? (Loss of OH, PA, and then either RI or MT -- loss of three; hold the rest; and then pick up either MD or NJ....Net loss of 2.)
I trust LS's assessment: DeWine isn't yet toast, and since the polls at this point mean nothing, and turn-out is everthing, I'm not counting Santorum out either. And if given the choice, I'd rather pick up Steele than Kean, but if the turn-out is huge for the GOP, we may pick up both.
I'm OK with that.
...shouldn't that be Dems plus 2? At any rate, I don't think we're going to lose OH and PA...I see GOP +1.
Which would be the only thing the Dems would have done for the good of the country in the last 60 years...
Good catch, dangus.
However, he said win EITHER Oh or PA, so actually he has us down 2 in the Senate, not one.
either RI or MT, I mean.
My bad....
To quote Conan the Barbarian, I want to see my enemies driven before me and to hear the lamentations of their women.
The National Review folks are starting to tick me off. They keep posting Survey USA polling results, which show doom for Republican candidates. Unfortunately, these polls are sampling significantly more Democrats than Republicans; thus, they are bogus. So NR is posting these erroneously results like they are in stone (i.e., with little background information). Are they trying to depress the conservative/Republican crowd?
Good news for Maryland and New Jersey. It is supposed to rain tomorrow. This might be enough for a 2% advantage for Republicans.
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