Posted on 11/06/2006 3:17:58 PM PST by excludethis
by Robert Novak Posted Nov 06, 2006
November 6, 2006 Washington, DC Special Edition To: Our Readers
Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.
In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed up by a post-election analysis on Wednesday.
Expectations Game: At this point, there will be no new polls, no major news events capable of significantly disrupting the election cycle.
We know one thing for sure: Republicans are going to lose ground in both houses of Congress. The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer.
If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.
If Democrats succeed, it will be for two reasons:
The first is an arrogant and politically tin-eared Republican establishment in Washington. In the handling of key issues such as the occupation of Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and a meaningful follow-through on Social Security reform, the White House displayed incompetence.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Republicans encouraged practices (such as earmarking in the appropriations process) that let corruption run free. When scandal hit, they handled it badly, particularly in the most recent case of disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.). They also went to great lengths to alienate their base on the issue of immigration reform, and they created an issue for Democrats in the form of embryonic stem-cell research. Recall that federal funding for embryonic research received a vote on the House floor only when the House Republican leadership made a deal with moderates in order to pass their budget in 2005.
Last, but not least, comes the brilliant candidate recruiting and fundraising on the part of two men – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). And should it occur, Democratic victory will come in spite of the total incompetence of Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean. But what about the unlikely event that Republicans succeed in keeping both the House and the Senate? Republican pundits deceive when they lower the bar, writing now of a Democratic sweep of the House as something that had always been inevitable. In fact, no one but the biggest Democratic dreamer could have expected a 15-seat gain in the House in 2006 after the historic 2004 election solidified GOP power around the country at the federal and, in most places, the state level. The thought that Democrats might actually take the Senate was not even in the minds of the most partisan Democratic dreamers.
But the reality of expectations has now changed. Republicans would be euphoric to cling to a one-seat advantage in the House and a 50-50 Senate. In fact, it would probably be demonstrative proof that, in the long haul, their grip on the nation is bulletproof. If you can't lose an election after all that has happened in the last two years, it may not be possible to lose.
If Republicans win, it will be for one reason: a superior turnout operation. The electorate will answer several questions tomorrow, but the most interesting one for Republicans is whether the Karl Rove-Ken Mehlman voter-turnout program is really all that powerful? Can it bring to the polls significant numbers of voters who in the past would have skipped the midterm, voting only in presidential contests? Can it be the Republicans' deus ex machina in the final act of the 2006 election, pulling the closest races out of the fire, and perhaps even providing some late surprises?
Late GOP Shift: Is there any truth to the late shift toward the Republicans that is being reported in the news and played out in some public polls? There are ways of knowing this.
First, there is a small hint buried in the discrepancies in responses between "registered" and "likely" voters in the public polls. For months, many polls have shown Democrats doing better among the carefully screened sample of "likely" voters than among the great unwashed mass of "registered" voters. Historically, it has been the opposite: Republicans have performed better when the likely non-voters are excluded. Polls are now reflecting a return to that historical normalcy -- Republicans perform better among "likely" voters.
This is a small but noteworthy sign that the GOP base is coming home and will vote rather than sit it out. If Republicans were to lose their historic advantage of their registered voters' turning out more reliably than those of Democrats, they would likely suffer a disastrous loss of more than 30 seats. They seem to have avoided the tsunami that everyone had been talking about.
Also significant is the GOP's late surge in the national generic ballot. We put almost no faith in the generic ballot's margin as an indicator of how the election will go. Recall that Republicans actually trailed by five points in the final Washington Post generic ballot in 1994. But trends in the generic ballot usually mean something. After favoring Democrats heavily for months, often by double digits, three generic ballot tests show Republicans closing the gap.
Late Results: Enormous Republican efforts to encourage early and absentee voting could dramatically skew exit polls. Do not be surprised if the apparent results Tuesday night are overturned by Wednesday morning in several close House races. Also, expect a few recounts.
See Articel For Specific Races
Watched Hardball and Chrissy and his democrat sycophants all had glum faces.
My prediction Pubbies keep control of the House with at most a loss of 5 seats.
2 Senate seats? I hope Novak's senility doesn't get any worse.
Boy, is he going to be wrong!
Novak is heavily infected with Beltway Virus. It's best to ignore his election forecasts
Brilliant campaigning by Schumer and Emmanuel if they win a mere 2 Senate seats adn 19 house seats an off year election? Give me a break!!!!
Well, well. If Novak has it at -19, maybe I need to increase my estimate to a +3. Clearly he is hearing that the Dems are in trouble. He has been the voice of doom all year, so this is very, very good news.
If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.
------
Bloodbath?? Yes, Dems cannot stand looking the mirror...they see themselves. When they do lose, maybe they will implode and give us a pretty super nova....and the end to the Socialist RAT party of criminals, freaks, losers, and all around "dark side" members of our society.
Can't wait until old Robert has to revise his picks downward one more time, on Wednesday morning.
Novak uses "tin earred" to describe the Republicans.
I think that means "they aren't listening to us Very Important Media people and Doing What We Tell Them. Don't they KNOW who WE are?!"
Nov-Hack smokin dope again
I used to think Novak was smart, but the more attention I paid to politcs the more I realized that was not the case.
I hope he is wrong and the GOP turnout machine is unstoppable.
My prediction last Sunday was 53 GOP Senate Seats, and 222 GOP House Seats.
Novak can shove it.
But Darth Vader has the numbers close to total victory.
And turnout could bring it to a total victory.
Of course everything must go perfect but still.
Perhaps Novak will lose his seat to Evans, or did that already happen?
Novak is WRONGO!!
Over the weekend, Novak was chanting doomsday for the GOP. Now he's changing his mind. If Novak is predicting -19 House seats and -2 Senate seats, then I think we might do better tomorrow. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.