Back in the early spring, I bet Michael Barone that Kerry would win this election. I'll buy him a drink if I'm wrong. And to be honest, I don't know who's more likely to win at this point. But here's a prediction I don't mind making. This election won't be close. Presidents seeking re-election very rarely win or lose a second time narrowly. Either they get trounced - Carter, Bush 41 - or they get re-elected handily - Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton. People make a simple decision whether the guy's worth re-electing. Of course, the alternative makes a difference. My...