Posted on 09/29/2015 11:44:29 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Donald Trump is holding his ground- at least compared to where he was in the state six weeks ago. Trump leads with 26% to 21% for Ben Carson, 12% for Carly Fiorina, 10% for Marco Rubio, 9% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Mike Huckabee, 5% for Jeb Bush, 4% for John Kasich, and 2% for Chris Christie. Rounding out the field are Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rand Paul all at less than 1%.
Trump's 26% is almost identical to his 24% standing from mid-August. His 53/36 favorability rating with GOP voters is actually a little bit better than its 47/40 standing from a month ago. The only candidates really showing any momentum in North Carolina compared to our last poll are Carson whose support has increased 7 points from 14% to its current 21% standing and Fiorina who's gone up 6 points from 6% to her current 12% standing. With a 70/17 favorability rating Carson is easily the most popular of the GOP hopefuls in the state, and he's also the most frequent second choice with 16% saying he'd be their back up option.
Ranking second both for most favorable honors and for most frequent second choice honors is Rubio. 63% of GOP voters have a positive opinion of him to only 19% with a negative one, and 15% say he's their second choice. The only other Republican in double digits when it comes to second choice is Fiorina at 12% and her 58/23 favorability rating puts her near the top of the heap on that front as well.
2 candidates have noticeably headed in the wrong direction in North Carolina over the last month. Jeb Bush has gone from being in third place at 13% to being in seventh place at 5%. It wasn't that long ago- June- that Bush actually led the Republican field in North Carolina. Most concerning for Bush might be that not only are voters not supporting him, but they don't even like him- just 34% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. Voters on the right are especially distrustful of him- among those identifying themselves as 'very conservative,' just 25% see him favorably to 55% with an unfavorable opinion.
In June Rand Paul was polling at 12% in North Carolina. By July, that was down to 7%. In August that was down to 3%. And now he has so little support that it rounds down to 0- he does have a few supporters, but it's not enough to even round up to 1%. The basement level showing for Paul is similar to what we've found a lot of other places recently.
It's safe to say Ben Carson and Donald Trump's recent comments about Islam aren't going to hurt them too much with their base of supporters. 44% of Carson voters think Islam should be illegal in the United States, to only 38% who think it should be legal. And with Trump voters the numbers are even more extreme- 52% think Islam should be illegal to just 31% that believe it should be allowed. Republican voters in the state as a whole are evenly divided with 40% thinking the practice of Islam should be legal and 40% thinking it should not.
Given those numbers it's not surprising that on the more narrow issue of whether a Muslim should be allowed to serve as President, only 16% of Republicans say yes to 72% who say no. And this all feeds into a broader concern that President Obama is waging a war on Christianity- 72% express that sentiment to only 20% who disagree with it.
On the Democratic side, North Carolina appears to be a pretty strong state for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton leads with 37% but Biden's at 30% to 17% for Bernie Sanders, 3% for Jim Webb, 2% for Lincoln Chafee, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. The North Carolina data reaffirms previous findings that a Biden entry would hurt Clinton a lot more than Sanders- 46% of Biden voters say Clinton's their second choice to just 21% who say it's Sanders. Reallocate Biden voters to their second choice and Clinton would lead Sanders 51/23, tighter than her 55/19 advantage a month ago but still not terribly competitive.
Conservative Democrats are still a thing in North Carolina- 20% of the party's electorate- and it's them who are making Biden so competitive in the state. He gets 40% to just 14% for Clinton and 8% for Sanders. When you look at the race just among liberals and moderates, Clinton has a much more comfortable lead with 42% to 28% for Biden and 19% for Sanders. Sanders continues not to do that well in the South. The race is relatively close three ways when you look just at white voters- 31% for Clinton to 26% for Biden and 23% for Sanders. But Clinton (47%) and Biden (34%) are far stronger with African Americans than Sanders (8%) and that leaves him in a distant third place in the state overall.
Republicans are leading Clinton across the board in the general election match ups in the state now. The strongest ones are Carson (51/41) and Rubio (50/40) who each lead Clinton by 10 points. They're followed by Huckabee and Fiorina who lead Clinton by identical 7 point margins at 48/41. Bush (46/41) and Trump (47/42) each lead Clinton by 5. The closest match ups are with Kasich who leads her by 4 at 44/40 and Cruz who leads her by 3 at 46/43.
Biden at this point does an average of 7 points better than Clinton in head to head match ups with the Republicans we tested him against. He actually leads Bush by 5 at 47/42 and ties Trump at 45/45. He trails Fiorina (45/44) and Carson (47/44) by narrow margins but at least comes a lot closer to them than Clinton. Sanders performs similarly to Clinton, doing on average a point worse than Clinton in match ups against the quartet of Bush/Carson/Fiorina/Trump.
Full results here
“Trump’s 26% is almost identical to his 24% standing from mid-August.”
LOL. If it was the other way around they would say that Trump was crashing.
That’s got to hurt paul to be linked to grahmnesty in the same sentence and percentage.
Oh boo hoo. Snot nosed punk who is one of Mitch’s boys
So true lol!
poll
carson 21%
carson 14%
carson 18%
carson 09%
carson 13%
carson 11%
How does this guy bounce around like that?
The polls on him are essentially worthless.
Rand can do some good positions on issues but in my opinion he cannot be trusted on defense and international matters (like his Daddy). Shame. Who is Lindsey? I don’t believe I have heard of him or her before....thanks...
OH Lindsey Graham, I see!
I would not even consider voting for LG
thanks, tho
I’m telling you. i am scared of Biden. For some insane reason moderate democrats think he’s moderate?!?!
he’s not moderate. but he polls SEVEN points better than Clinton and that’a slot.
And he Crushed Ryan in the debate. He is ruthless.
Someone make me feel better and tell me i’m wrong.
If he runs against Hillary it will be an aggressive primary and they will attack each other. Would be interesting to see how that played out. It will be difficult for Biden to differentiate himself from Obama as well.
why does he do seven points better than clinton? i hope he says out and she wins.
We will then take the White House!!
carson 21%
carson 14%
carson 18%
carson 09%
carson 13%
carson 11%
How does this guy bounce around like that?
God wanted it that way:
...A man can receive nothing, except it be given him from heaven.--John 3:27
You are wrong. Both Romney and Ryan threw the election. Anybody with a set of stones can eviscerate Biden on his record. All Biden does is lie about everything and a lightweight debater will not be able to counter that. Now, he did so very great against Palin didn’t he?
I want to be wrong. I hope you are right.
What I see is him up seven points more than Clinton and he is not an unknown.
I didn’t say he cant be beaten, but i do think people are underestimating him, or he would have been gone a long time ago.
Check out Rand’s website. He’s got a link to the eight people in the entire country that endorse him. One of them is his dad.
“...The polls on him...(anyone)....... are essentially worthless.”..........
Sorry but I don’t put much faith in polls. Poll questions can be, and are easily manipulated to get a desired answer leaning in what you favor. As I have stated many times, the only poll that counts will be the one in November 2016
Love to see Bush tanking LOL...next debate he will be at the kiddie table!
As far as the rest of them Im content just to watch and see how things go.
As we stand right now, can you even imagine Biden against Trump? Trump’s allure with the electorate right now is that he will call out a liar, straight to his face. Biden lives in a sound bite world and he will die in a sound bite world.
He has been totally wrong on every foreign policy stance he has taken, he orchestrated the Clarence Thomas “High Tech Lynching”. His constant gaffes, ie; Obama in clean and articulate; Indian accent to run a 7-Eleven, and we can go on and on. In a campaign, those will come out and the media will have no choice but to play them to some degree. Plus, he has been at the Captain’s right arm through these last to be 8 years of misery.
The landscape is ripe with fruit for someone with the whit and brashness of Trump. If he is the nominee, I also predict he will tap Cruz for Senate President (AKA, VP) and also his cabinet choices who would also be out there picking the fruit. Sarah Palin will be one and we know how she clipped Biden even with the restraints of McCain and his bunch. Imagine her unleashed.
That made me feel a lot better.
It’s so early and he is a buffoon.
that seven point advantage could disappear quickly.
Hillary was up by 30 points at one point against Cruz. Now she’s down by 3!!!!
I SO want her to be the dem candidate, running while the justice department and FIB build a case against her.
The FBI will not submit a case until there is a new AG. All the Obama tribe is up to now is to make sure she and Bill do not end up with the reins of power after the election. They will diminish her to the point of irrelevancy so there will be no change of power in the Socialist Party (Democrats and there is nothing democratic about them).
Putting her under indictment leads to discovery and the tribe cannot take any discovery because it implicates them all in the “what do you know and when did you know it” meme.
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