The threat of further sanctions on Russia has caused global crude oil prices to surge. U.S. business cycle history suggests that a sharp spike in oil prices may portend a recession. That the Federal Reserve missed the window of opportunity last year to painlessly remove monetary accommodation and initiate monetary tightening has made the current situation particularly dicey. With inflation rates already at 40-year highs, and yet to peak, a stagflationary outcome is hard to rule out.