TO: Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign LeadershipFM: Matthew Dowd Chief StrategistRE: The Democratic convention and its effect on the presidential race John Kerry becomes the first presidential candidate since 1972 to receive a negative bounce from his convention. Kerry’s performance in Gallup's post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling. "An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should...