Donald J. Trump’s Republican rivals will be playing catch-up ahead of the New York primary, according to a new poll released on Wednesday that shows the Manhattan businessman holding a substantial lead in his home state. A survey from Monmouth University found that 52 percent of likely Republican primary voters support Mr. Trump. Gov. John Kasich, who has only won his state of Ohio, comes in second with 25 percent, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas trails with 17 percent.