Free Republic

Global markets are increasingly unstable as sovereign debt burdens grow, social unrest brews, and confidence in traditional systems erodes. Against this backdrop, Martin Armstrong, founder of Armstrong Economics and creator of the Economic Confidence Model, brings rare insight into the cycles reshaping the world. In this conversation, Armstrong breaks down how centuries of historical data, political shifts, and rising debt pressures are converging into a major global reset. From sovereign defaults to civil unrest, he explains why the patterns are undeniable—and what they mean for the future of markets, governments, and society itself.

South Africa’s human rights court deemed the song permissible and not a hate crime. While the EEF is an opposition party for the ruling Democratic Alliance (DA), President Ramaphosa failed to comment after the rally. Trump demanded that Malema be arrested and explained that such an event would not be allowed in the US—or elsewhere, for that matter. The African National Congress (ANC) came to power under Nelson Mandela in 1994 and implemented a series of racially-based policies under Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE). White state workers in every sector were immediately fired and forced...

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I have followed Socrates for over a year now. I was told by friends you run the most unbiased site in the industry. I greatly appreciate how objective it really has been. ….. ANSWER: I believe that pressure is building within the system, and it is that pressure that compels people to react. The computer forecasts that pressure, not some order that Trump may or may not sign. Trump is compelled to take action because of the pressure. The computer tells us when that pressure will reach a turning point that compels a response. We have lost...

American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies. Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a recession by the second half of this year, with 15% believing the recession will come in 2026. When this survey was conducted last quarter, prior to the tariff wars and trade volatility, only 7% of CFOs believed the nation was heading into a recession. This figure...

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related. Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This...

The European Parliament President Roberta Metsola has completely sealed the fate of Europe and its desire for self-destruction. She is now claiming that it is Ukraine that is defending Europe against a full-scale invasion by Russia. Ukraine is fighting for the security of Europe. Some people only understand a story if it is explained as a picture. Xxx This is the image that Metsola is promoting to try to inspire Europeans to throw their lives away for these ethnic hatreds that are as unsolvable as the Middle East battle between Suni and Shite. The Neocons have full control of the...

The United States is in the process of creating a new embassy in Lebanon that is far larger than any government facility in the nation. In fact, the 19 building, 43-acre compound is 2.5X larger than the White House and accompanying land and 10X the size of Nine Elms in London. The only larger embassy is the one the US built in Iraq. “The Land of Plenty,” as the structure will be called, will cost US taxpayers an estimated $1.2 billion. Why does the US government need a mega compound in Lebanon? It is all about Israel. The site in...

Hope all is well and Happy New Year. Are you keeping track of this new virus going around in China? Is is apparently in the Ukraine now too? Any updates? Could this be what the 9th of January was targeting? Disease and War cycle? ANSWER: I am aware of this new virus. I went to see my doctor, who, when she asked me if I got vaccinated, I said NO! Her response was GOOD! She is actually from Sereavo, and oddly, I knew I looked familiar since I had advised the government there about the breakup of Yugoslavia. She believes...

QUESTION: Regarding CBDC, will they convert all the savings/cash in your bank account, will they convert everything in your brokerage accounts (all stocks etc.) will they go after gold and silver you have in storage (Brinks, for example)? KS ANSWER: Everything will be converted to the new CBDC. The money in your bank account is already just an electronic book entry. This is why banks are closing branches everywhere in the USA as well as Europe. They are preparing for CBDCs, which means without physical paper money, bank branches are no longer needed. You can deposit a check on your...

The West has funneled more money into Ukraine than the entire nation’s GDP. The nation was considered a corrupt pariah by the West who would not allow Ukraine into any bloc formed from NATO to the European Union. Now, the European Union is virtue signaling by claiming it has covered Ukraine’s budget deficit next fiscal year. None of these nations can overcome their deficits. Of course, the funding did not come from these governments but rather from the stolen Russian funds confiscated at the beginning of the war. The next €30 billion of transferred stolen assets will allegedly pay off...

Ukrainian intelligence agencies released a serious claim that the Russian Ministry of Defense leaked the Kremlin’s final plan for Ukraine that involves separating the nation into three territories. ( See proposed map). Ukraine News states that their source will propose the divided territories to Donald Trump once he enters the White House, with plans taking until 2045 to achieve. Although no one can confirm this information with certainty, the proposal—which no one will accept—is quite interesting. To begin, Russia will absorb the eastern regions, including but not limited to currently Russian-occupied territories. The second territory, the “pro-Russian state entity,” would...

War Sweden & Finland Warn Prepare for War Sweden & Finland Warn Prepare for War Posted Nov 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong | SPREAD THE LOVE Sweden wants war All the European leaders wanted war desperately so they could (1) try to hold together the failing Eurozone and (2) end up with an excuse to default on their debts. The average Russian, European, American, Canadian, Japanese, and Chinese are uninterested in war. The average person wants to get along and deal with everyday life. Sweden and Finland are telling their people to prepare for war. There is nobody in power...

BlogEventsShopKnowledge Center Contact Us Store Account Blog Economics The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand Posted Nov 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong | SPREAD THE LOVE WEC 2016 Orlando QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for the WEC. Many people feel this was your best. Your solution to save our country was spectacular, and you deserved the standing ovation. My question is that you said that Trump and RFK would not listen to you despite everything you have done. You did not explain why. May I ask why? FP ANSWER: As I...

QUESTION: Are you ever wrong? PSH ANSWER: Personally, we are all wrong on various things in life. To be a trader, you only learn from your mistakes – not your victories. I try to separate what is my OPINION from the forecasts by the computer. We have clients around the world. We have probably been the largest adviser ever. But that is not because of my opinion – that is Socrates. I have often stated I try my best to defeat my own computer – I am the one who ends up wrong. There is a new film coming out...

QUESTION #1: Why does the West hail Zelensky when I have family in Ukraine who see him as a traitor to Ukraine? Asking Turkmenistan to arrest Putin is asking them to commit suicide. Zelensky is a war criminal, for he takes orders from the West against his own people. Your 172-year cycle that turned in 2020, did that mark the rise of the Neocons with Biden? Also, when will this war end? QUESTION #2: Zelensky’s speech to the Ukrainian Parliament is World War III. There is no compromise on anything. He wants immediate NATO entry, long-range missiles to destroy Russia,...

President Richard Nixon had threatened the head of the CIA, saying: “I know who killed JFK.” When he was driven out of office, Nixon refused the protection of the Secret Service. This recent attempted assassination was according to their proven playbook. Use a claimed lone shoot, kill him to make sure there is never a trial, and the problem is eliminated. I have often said that history is merely a map to the future, for human nature never changes. ... There were assassinations and attempted assassinations of Roman emperors by rivals and sometimes bureaucrats who were trying to weasel in...

My sources have confirmed that not only did Russia make a stop in Cuba, but China is also present, and they are constructing spy installations to watch what is going to take place, especially with our elections. Most likely, they will put missiles in Cuba in retaliation for this Proxy War to conquer Russia. Guess what! This is two Pi Cycles from 1962 (2024) – right on schedule. They are well aware that Biden is NOT running the country. This is in the hands of the Neocons, and both Garland and Blinken just so happen to be Ukrainian Jews with...

Your future will be utterly destroyed because of these Neocons who are consumed with personal hatred of Russians. They are pushing American policymakers, arguing that Putin is bluffing and we can, therefore, destroy Russia, and he will never fire a shot. They insist that Putin won’t put his money where his mouth is regarding escalation. Adam Kinzinger, who is the classic Neocon – a Republican congressman from Illinois who jumped ship and ran to CNN so he could preach World War III after losing the election because of his views. He is now CNN’s senior political commentator. This is the...

Martin Armstrong sees striking similarities between the multitude of crises that plague the modern world and the conditions just before the fall of the Roman empire. Martin argues that endless debt issuance, wars for profit, unchecked migration, and rampant political corruption are setting the stage for a future where many Western countries cease to exist as we know them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again offering Ukraine the option to end this senseless war. Putin said that he would order an immediate ceasefire and call a truce if Zelensky 1) withdraws troops from four annexes regions, and 2) declines any invitation to join NATO. Putin is effectively attempting to prevent World War III. He knows that a global conflict will erupt instantaneous if Ukraine joins NATO thanks to Article V. His comments were given ahead of the summit in Switzerland in which world leaders are allegedly going to discuss peace talks. The option for peace has ALWAYS been...