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  • New Ukraine positions near Kherson could signal spring offensive – report

    04/25/2023 4:33:13 AM PDT · by Timber Rattler · 66 replies
    The Guardian ^ | April 23, 2023 | Emma Graham-Harrison
    Ukraine’s military has set up positions on the eastern side of the Dnipro River near Kherson city, the Institute for the Study of War cites Russian military bloggers as saying. Infiltrating the area could be a first step towards trying to dislodge Russian forces from positions they are using to shell and shoot at Kherson. The constant attacks have made it impossible for residents to return to normal life months after Ukrainian troops liberated the city from occupation. Ukrainian military forays across the river could also mark the first tentative steps towards launching a long-awaited spring offensive to reclaim more...
  • Wagner Group Accused of Beheading Ukrainian Servicemen

    04/12/2023 4:04:12 PM PDT · by familyop · 23 replies
    Newsweek ^ | April 11, 2023 | KAITLIN LEWIS
    According to Monday's assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), members of the Wagner Group have reportedly committed war crimes in the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city, according to videos posted by Russian social media users "purportedly showing the remains of a head belonging to a Ukrainian serviceman on a spike at an unspecified area in Bakhmut." "Social media users recalled similar instances of skulls mounted on spikes in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast, where Wagner troops operated over spring-summer of 2022," the assessment read.

    04/02/2023 7:14:53 AM PDT · by Timber Rattler · 32 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | April 1, 2023 | Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan
    Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western Donetsk Oblast. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) observed that Gerasimov has failed to extend Russian control over Donbas during...
  • RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN UPDATE, FEBRUARY 5, 2023 [Putin Not Likely to Use Nukes.]

    02/07/2023 10:12:07 PM PST · by familyop · 11 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | February 5, 2023 | Kateryna Stepanenko and Mason Clark
    Putin’s reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO. ISW previously assessed that Russian conventional war threats against NATO do not correspond with Russia’s capabilities and that Russia uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.[23] Putin evidently values his domestic status quo and seeks to avoid risky and controversial policies to support his own aims. Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculated individual who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks—even while his perception of the situation he faces...
  • Paranoid Putin 'turns against' Wagner chief after the mercenary boss 'failed to take the hint' and kept bragging that his forces achieved more success than Russia's

    01/23/2023 1:31:19 PM PST · by marcusmaximus · 19 replies
    Daily Mail ^ | 1/23/2023 | Rachel Bunyan
    Vladimir Putin is said to have turned against the head of the feared Russian Wagner mercenary group after he 'failed to take the hint' and kept on bragging that his forces were achieving more success than Russia's army. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has fallen out of favour with the Russian president after he continuously gloated his private paramilitary fighters were more superior and successful than the country's conventional forces, experts say. Earlier this month, Prigozhin bragged that his fighters had single-handedly taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar, which has been razed by fighting. Putin is said to...

    11/28/2022 9:11:32 AM PST · by Timber Rattler · 73 replies
    The Institute for the Study of War ^ | November 27, 2022 | Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan
    The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian...

    11/11/2022 11:22:38 PM PST · by TigerLikesRoosterNew · 115 replies
    ISW ^ | Nov 11, 2022 | Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
    Ukrainian forces are completing the liberation of the western (right) bank of Kherson Oblast after the Russians retreated from it. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completed the withdrawal to the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River at 5am local time on November 11.[1] While contingents of Russian soldiers likely remain on the west bank, they are likely scattered throughout the Oblast and attempting to retreat as Ukrainian forces push towards the Dnipro River, although some may have remained behind to attempt to conduct partisan activities in small groups. It is unclear how many Russian...

    10/25/2022 8:19:38 AM PDT · by Timber Rattler · 14 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 24, 2022 | Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, and Fredrick W. Kagan
    Key Takeaways: 1) The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a second day in a row. 2) Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov stated on October 24 that the impact of Russian terrorist strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure is waning. 3) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts on September 30 ignited a schism within the Kremlin, which will likely intensify as Ukraine liberates more territories according to Budanov. 4) Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a...
  • Russian officers and medics evacuated from Kherson region leaving inexperienced soldiers to defend the annexed city from advancing Ukrainian forces, says think tank

    10/23/2022 5:30:39 PM PDT · by Timber Rattler · 28 replies
    Business Insider ^ | October 23, 2022 | Bethany Dawson
    Russia has withdrawn some officers and medics from around the annexed city of Kherson as fears of a major Ukrainian offensive grow, said The Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Moscow is in retreat across the Dnipro River in anticipation of an advance of Ukrainian troops on the regional capital, the US-based think tank said on Sunday. "Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective," concluded the ISW, in a Russian Offensive Campaign assessment, on Saturday. The think tank, quoting the Ukrainian General Staff, stated...
  • Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

    10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT · by Widget Jr · 52 replies
    The Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 21, 2022 | Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
    The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their...
  • Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26

    02/26/2022 1:58:32 PM PST · by tlozo · 106 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | Feb 26,2022 | Download the PDF Mason Clark, George Barros, and Katya Stepanenko
    Russian forces’ main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian airborne and special forces troops are engaged in urban warfare in northwestern Kyiv, but Russian mechanized forces are not yet in the capital. Russian forces from Crimea have changed their primary axes of advance from a presumed drive toward Odesa to focus on pushing north toward Zaporizhie and the southeastern bend of the Dnipro River and east along the Azov Sea coast toward Mariupol. These advances risk cutting off the large concentrations of Ukrainian forces still defending the former line...
  • Syria: Dozens killed as bombers strike in Homs and Damascus

    02/21/2016 11:20:35 AM PST · by Vostok-1 · 5 replies
    CNN ^ | 1717 GMT (0117 HKT) February 21, 2016 | Yousuf Basil and Tim Hume
    Dozens of people were killed in separate car bomb and suicide attacks in Homs and southern Damascus on Sunday, Syrian state media reported, citing local officials and security sources. ISIS claimed responsibility for the Sayyidah Zaynab and Homs attacks via the Telegram messaging app.
  • ISIS Carried Out A 'Complex And Penetrating Attack' In The Capital Of Iraq For The First Time

    09/18/2014 9:27:56 PM PDT · by blam · 12 replies
    BI ^ | 9-18-2014 | The Institute for the Study of War
    The Institute for the Study of War September. 18, 2014 On September 18, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) launched a complex attack likely targeting the Adala Prison in Baghdad’s Kadhmiyah neighborhood in northern Baghdad. According to the Baghdad Operations Command, the attack was intended to break into the prison but was foiled. ISIS also launched another attack in Baghdad’s Iskan neighborhood that likely targeted the offices of the Iraqi Shi’a political group and militia, the Badr Organization.Institute for the Study of War The Attack ISIS’s attack included mortar rounds, Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs), and Suicide Borne...
  • Obama’s ‘Strategy’ Has No Chance of Success

    09/11/2014 8:58:38 AM PDT · by mojito · 27 replies
    The Weekly Standard ^ | 9/10/2014 | FREDERICK W. KAGAN and KIMBERLY KAGAN
    President Obama just announced that he is bringing a counter-terrorism strategy to an insurgency fight. He was at pains to repeat the phrase “counter-terror” four times in a short speech. Noting that ISIL is not a state (partly because the international community thankfully does not recognize it), he declared, “ISIL is a terrorist organization, pure and simple. And it has no vision other than the slaughter of all who stand in its way.” Neither of those sentences, unfortunately, is true. ISIL is an insurgent group that controls enormous territory in Iraq and Syria that it governs. It maneuvers conventional light...
  • [September 4, 2013] Meet the Syrian Islamist Organization Controlling Senator McCain’s Agenda

    09/10/2014 9:03:06 PM PDT · by Ray76 · 9 replies
    Frontpage Magazine ^ | September 4, 2013 | Daniel Greenfield
    (September 4, 2013) A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ran a high profile article from one Elizabeth O’Bagy arguing that the majority of the Syrian rebels were actually moderates. Senator McCain mentioned Elizabeth O’Bagy’s op-ed during the Senate hearings, when he wasn’t playing poker, and tweeted it. That should come as no surprise, considering that O’Bagy is credited with arranging McCain’s infamous photo op with the Syrian rebel leadership. The Wall Street Journal lists O’Bagy’s role as the Institute for the Study of War. It leaves out the fact that she is the political director for the Syrian...
  • ISIS Works to Merge its Northern Front across Iraq and Syria (Analysis)

    08/12/2014 10:10:33 AM PDT · by mojito · 11 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | 8/8/2014 | Jennifer Cafarella
    ...Through a significant escalation against the Syrian regime and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga beginning in mid-July, ISIS forces have made large advances in a campaign to consolidate internal control within the Caliphate. The Syrian regime’s Regiment 121, Division 17, and Brigade 93 military bases have fallen to ISIS, and indicators have emerged of an upcoming ISIS attack against the Tabqa military airbase southwest of ar-Raqqa City. ISIS has also seized the Peshmerga stronghold at Sinjar in the west of Iraq’s Ninewa Province, successfully consolidating its internal line of control across the Jazeera desert into Syria. The breath of these linked...
  • Meet the Syrian Islamist Organization Controlling Senator McCain’s Agenda

    09/05/2013 7:50:08 AM PDT · by maggief · 32 replies
    Frontpage Mag ^ | September 4, 2013 | Daniel Greenfield
    A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ran a high profile article from one Elizabeth O’Bagy arguing that the majority of the Syrian rebels were actually moderates. Senator McCain mentioned Elizabeth O’Bagy’s op-ed during the Senate hearings, when he wasn’t playing poker, and tweeted it. That should come as no surprise, considering that O’Bagy is credited with arranging McCain’s infamous photo op with the Syrian rebel leadership. The Wall Street Journal lists O’Bagy’s role as the Institute for the Study of War. It leaves out the fact that she is the political director for the Syrian Emergency Task Force...
  • US Government Paid Propagandist Commited Perjury

    09/13/2013 8:11:39 AM PDT · by Red Statements · 7 replies ^ | 09/13/2013 | Steven H Ahle
    Elizabeth O'Bagy, who was paid by the British and US government to provide propaganda favorable to the Islamists fighting in Syria has apparently committed perjury in the trial of American Eric Harroun, who was accused of fighting alongside al-Nusra in Syria., an Al Qaeda linked group. O'Bagy submitted an affidavit that his group was not Islamist.Until recently, their web site included a picture of the US Capitol in flames. Click here to see affidavit.
  • Embattled Syria analyst vouched for rebel group that depicted burning US Capitol (O'Bagy)

    09/13/2013 7:13:29 AM PDT · by RoosterRedux · 35 replies ^ | 9/13/2013
    Elizabeth O’Bagy, a pro-Syrian opposition analyst whose credibility has come under fire, might have even more explaining to do – as court documents show she once vouched for a rebel group whose website displayed extremist and anti-American images. Among the pictures was one showing a burning U.S. Capitol. O’Bagy was fired earlier this week by the Institute for the Study of War for allegedly lying about her academic credentials. Her writings had been used by U.S. officials to bolster their case for military action against the Assad regime. O’Bagy discussed the rebel group in question in a June 19, 2013...
  • Wall Street Journal sat on knowledge of O’Bagy’s link to Islamists

    09/13/2013 12:19:46 AM PDT · by Nachum · 20 replies
    Daily Caller ^ | 9/12/13 | Charles C. Johnson
    Contrary to claims from its editorial pages editor, a Wall Street Journal editor knew of Elizabeth O’Bagy’s connections to the Islamist Syrian Emergency Task Force and took at least three days to publish a clarification. “We were not aware of Elizabeth O’Bagy’s academic claims or credential when we published her Aug. 31 op-ed, and the op-ed made no reference to them,” editorial pages editor Paul Gigot told Politico in a statement on September 11. “We also were not aware of her affiliation with the Syrian Emergency Task Force, and we published a clarification when we learned of it,” Gigot wrote....