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Part I: Real Pollsters Who Work for Campaigns As we enter the homestretch of this election and we all hang by every thread of polling data, I thought I would share some insights into polling data that I have gleaned from being involved in elections for the past 26 years. Some of this content has been provided by smart posters here, and by other folks like Jay Cost at the Weekly Standard. But some content might surprise you and hopefully allow you to discern between good polls and bad ones, when to be concerned, when to be skeptical and above...

Charleston, South Carolina (CNN) - With Newt Gingrich creeping up in the polls and potentially on the cusp of a South Carolina victory, one of Mitt Romney's senior advisers sought to change expectations ahead of Saturdays' pivotal presidential primary. Though his campaign has competed aggressively in the state and is hungry for a win here, Romney strategist Stuart Stevens said the idea of a loss to Gingrich on Saturday is not far-fetched. "Do I think we could lose South Carolina? Sure. Of course," Stevens told CNN after Thursday's presidential debate in Charleston. "The very idea that we are sting where...

There are many interesting conclusions one can reach from recent Rasmussen Daily Tracking Polls -- including the massive spreads now defined by the two latest indices—the “Empty Tent Index” and “Post Racial Index.” The Empty Tent index is constructed to demonstrate the massive vote loss the McCain Campaign and other “big tent” Republicans suffered thanks to the strategy to “reach across the aisle” and not go after McCain’s “honorable opponent” and so on. We could call this the “Colin Powell Impact Index” or the “David Brooks Crease in the Pants” index, but we will stick with “Empty Tent” index...

John McCain has the upper hand in the November 4th election. How can I say that when the polls show Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out) to 13 from the folks who brought you Dan Rather and the use of forged documents to try and steal the election just four years ago. A brief look at the methodolgy of these polls -- the degree of over-sampling of Democrats corresponding almost to perfection with the degree of Obama's "lead" in them -- shows a tight race, with McCain actually leading by a...

Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity) First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation. It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on O’Reilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans. One of those “”A-HA!” moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested “D” ballots. Several...

I was eating lunch today with the wife on her birthday. The table next to us was a gentleman and a young lady, well dressed, curiously looking at papers spread out over the table. The fellow had a briefcase with a huge McCain\Palin Victory sticker. Wife and I whispered about who they can be. Wife turned around and just had to ask. Well this was a Republican party of Pennsylvania honcho in charge of the Victory campaign for the good guys. We got into an interesting discussion about the debates, polling, etc. This what I heard…. It was very encouraging,...

In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following: Whip up a tasty, representative poll after the Republican Convention.Three weeks later, make the same dish, but this time adjust the mix of ingredients by radically oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans, thereby creating a false illusion of momentum in the campaign of Barack Obama, and of decline in John McCain's.Hope people don't notice the changes in the recipe. Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's...

The New York Times fails to put the polling metrics on its website, but CBS News did. Surprise, surprise. They sampled the following self-identified voters: Republican: 362 out of 1257 respondents Democrat: 396 out of 1257 respondents Independents: 355 out of 1257 respondents They "re-weighted" the sample for the "results" as follows: Republicans:312 Democrats: 380 Independent:328 So apparently not satisfied with oversampling Democrats in the first instance, they re-weighted it to reflect even more Democrats. For those wondering, in the 2004 election, Dems and Republicans were split at 37%, with indies making up about 26%. So if the ol' gray...

I’m beginning to think the political world has been “punked” by the guys at Insider Advantage/Poll Position (IA/PP) Yes I cherry picked this poll, but as you will note it is well deserved. See for yourself. From Nevada a IA/PP Sept 11 poll reported John McCain winning the Black vote. I could stop there, but there is more. IA/PP says McCain gets a stunning SEVENTY THREE percent of Nevada’s 7% Black vote. From there, the poll of 518 Likely Voters reports McCain losing men 46/44, but winning 46/45 overall. An IA/PP Virginia poll of 518 likely voters reported on Sept....

Private RNC polling shows McCain lead By: Jonathan Martin April 9, 2008 06:45 PM EST Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee’s state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month. He’s moved ahead of the two Democrats by consolidating support among...

…from the First Read (note the eye-popping Romney internal poll, fwiw): …don't assume that the $3 million or so that Giuliani and McCain save from not competing is somehow helpful for the later states. (What exactly does $3 million buy in California? Not much.) This decision was not about the calendar as it was about not giving Romney an opportunity for a major win this August. Don't over-read into this decision by both campaigns. Remember, Romney was spending endless amounts of money to win this straw poll. Indeed, the Los Angeles Times sees the decision as about slowing down Romney....

Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election Oct 29, 3:53 PM (ET) By LEIGH STROPE (AP) President Bush speaks at a campaign rally Friday, Oct. 29, 2004, in Portsmouth, N.H. (AP... Full Image Google sponsored links 2004 Election Issues - Inform undecided voters Free printable fact sheets www.udecide.org Should Kerry Be Elected? - Respond Now And You Can Get A Free Laptop Computer! (aff) www.willkerrywin.com WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting. The Kerry...

LATEST SNAPSHOT % GEORGE W. BUSH 51   % JOHN KERRY 46   % RALPH NADER 1   Oct 22 - 24, 2004Based on Likely Voters View complete trend

Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state -- save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day. The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about...