Posted on 10/18/2008 6:32:49 AM PDT by hoosiermama
Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)
First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation.
It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on O’Reilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans.
One of those “”A-HA!” moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested “D” ballots. Several even winked or smiled knowingly. They were part of Operation Chaos.
Listening to Mary Matelin the other evening explaining that the polls use a percentage of registered voters to determine the percentage of party members to canvas. I imagine in Indiana that number is influenced by the actual ballot requested in the Primary. Is Operation Chaos still doing it’s thing?
BTW I was polled this week. It occurred to me and I dutifully reported to the poller that several of my “D” neighbors were supporting Mc Cain. (I suppose according to Murpha we would be considered a “racist” community)
My questions for fellow freepers: How much influence did the OC movement have on the vote in your state? Is it more influential than the Bradley affect? Rush listeners, which states are you in and how many of them voted heavily for Hillary? Are the potential voters not only enough for McCain to win, but win in a landslide?
Yes, McCain is winning and he will win.
How many of those newly-registered Democrat voters are ACORN frauds? Dead people, second graders, Disney characters?
Yes, he has been in the lead since Palin was announced, and maybe even before. The polls are complete garbage.
If Repubs registered as RATS for Operation Chaos in the primary, when would they switch back? Election day?
In my opinion, the pollers are overestimating the % of Democrats this year, I just don't know by how much. In my gut, I DO think the Dems will outvote the Republicans by several percent, but not quite as high as the pollsters think. But don't kid yourselves, McCain is still probably significantly behind, and it will be a small miracle if he wins. It is VERY doable though.
Excellent analysis. Let me just say that there is no way Obama is going to win Hillary’s 18 million voters. I’d guess half of them voted for Hillary because they saw her as the lesser of two evils.
Yeah, I’m not sure the pollsters are being that methodical about it. Some of these polls just have large party ID differentials, most likely to provide a certain favorable result to a certain favored candidate.
Good point, here in Oregon the paper was talking 100K that switched from R to D and you knew it was operation chaos. That said, the pollsters are using mixes that have no relation to past voting patterns and yes McCain is very likely ahead and moving farther.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
I’ve been saying this for a while. Two facotrs have skewed the poll weights, both related to over-registration on donks. One is Operation Chaos. The other is ACORN. In fact, I believe this is one of the main goals of all the fraudulent voter registrations by ACORN - to skew the polls so an Obamanation win seems inevitable, getting McCain voters to stay home, and thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
How many poll respondents are lying about being registered just so they can say they are supporting Obama?
There are probably a lot of ineligible voters being polled.
Here in TX, not only did lots of us cross over and vote for Hillary, we went to the local caucuses that night.
Man what a field trip.
Those people can’t even count heads for totals and hands for votes in their own meetings.
Your friends are like a few of my family members who live in a heavily blue congressional district. The voting decision for the congressdonkey er congressperson is always in the primary. They figure that this way they are participating in the election process. They also get the pleasure of voting against the donkey du jour twice.
Makes sense to me.
I think four factors will come into play on Nov 4 that may prove the polls off by quite a bit:
1) the “Bradley Effect”
2) Dem registration numbers due to Op Chaos
3) Republicans hate the Leftist Media scum so much, I hear a much higher % of people than normal are hanging up on pollsters — most of those are probably McCain voters.
4) I think a greater than usual number of people are lying to pollsters due to pure hatred of the Obama media. If they called me, I would either hang up on them or lie to them.
No a Powell endorsement of Obama on Sunday will effectively end McCain’s campaign /sarc
It’s still an extremely close race, but it doesn’t look good for Mac.
And yes, Dems are oversampled, but for the simple reason there are more dems than Republicans.
The local paper has reported that people in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area were continuing to register as D in big numbers long after the primary. The paper is a Dem party rag however. (The paper who's reporter was the only person to hear "kill him" at the Palin rally in Scranton.)
I think the shift to D is partly explained by Op Chaos, partly ACORN and the like, but also there is still a lot of anger blaming Republicans and esp W for the mess were in even before it was a mess.
People have been complaining about the economy even when it was really good because the MSM and dems had them convinced it was bad even when it wasn't.
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