Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041029/D8619VG81.html ^ | October 29, 2004 | IGH STROPE

[Blogger]

Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election

Oct 29, 3:53 PM (ET)

By LEIGH STROPE

(AP) President Bush speaks at a campaign rally Friday, Oct. 29, 2004, in Portsmouth, N.H. (AP... Full Image

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting.

The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department acknowledged Friday, "Clearly, this kind of armchair political analysis doesn't belong in government memos, even if they are entirely internal."

The Labor Department report, obtained by The Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John Kerry. Titled "In Focus: Predicting the Election Outcome," the memo says, "Nearly every single model has him winning."

"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models' inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate."

Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.

The Bush administration blamed midlevel employees for preparing inappropriate government material.

"This appears to be an internal ETA document prepared by midlevel ETA staff," said Labor Department spokesman Ed Frank.

Kerry's campaign contended the Bush administration was wasting taxpayers' money.

"If the Bush administration focused more on the economy and less on politics, George Bush would not be the first president in 70 years to lose jobs," said Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer. "George Bush has turned the government into his own taxpayer-funded political machine."

The document also includes a Washington Post story, an article from Monster.com and charts and briefs on the latest economic indicators.

One factor in the election that has been "downplayed is the president's popularity," a variable the report says may be important. "Fortunately, there are models (that) incorporate this concept," it says.

The economic models are not infallible, but they do "systematically measure past data, which is a far cry better than relying on anecdotal evidence," the paper says. The models looked at an array of economic indicators, including gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation.

The analysis also discusses a futures market that lets players bid on a probable election outcome. It also checked Web sites of oddsmakers in America and abroad.

[Blogger]

This article is slightly different from the one that shows up in search in that it gives the Kerry camp's reaction. Since when is a democrat concerned about wasting taxpayer dollars?

[Naplm]

I like it, more good news!

[Mister Baredog]

Since when is a democrat concerned about wasting taxpayer dollars?

Only if it's spent on defending our country(they hate "wasting" that money) or giving tax cuts to taxpayers(aka the "rich") to a DUmbocrat. LOL

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

The first thought that came into my mind was the Clinton staffers destroying and stealing equipment after W won. Wasting taxpayer money? Give me a break.

[Sunshine55]

Speaking of labor...I just got this interesting e-mail:

Please forward to your address book....

If it's worth even correcting, the John Kerry ad re: Timken Steele in Akron is 100% inaccurate. Although 3 parts (bearings manufact.) of the company are closing, ALL the workers are being transitioned into new positions, and no one is losing their jobs.

Additionally, the man in the commercial is in management, not even a line worker as he indicates. While he may or may not lose his job, it's not because of any Bush economic policies, it's because he took part in the ad.

For more information, contact Mr. Jason Saragin at Timken. His honeymoon vacation was cut short to deal with this horrible and blatant attempt to hijack the votes of undecided residents in the State of Ohio.

Thanks,
Rob Crockett

[Paleo Conservative]

At first I thought it was a British Labour Party memo. I actually agree with the Kerry campaign on this issue. It is not an appropriate use of government employees time to conduct such a study. I really would not want a DemocRAT administration to do these types of things in the future.

[Blogger]

I don't disagree with it. It shows whichever party how hard to prepare for a new administration. If it is a carry-over of the previous, they don't need to change as much.