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The war in Ukraine is primarily a war for control of people, not land. Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine twice not mainly because he desires Ukraine’s land, but rather because he seeks to control its people. Putin’s project, explicitly articulated in the 2021 article he published justifying the 2022 full-scale invasion, is the destruction of Ukraine’s distinctive political, social, linguistic, and religious identity.[1] Putin seeks to make real his false ideological conviction that Ukrainians are simply confused Russians with an invented identity, language, and history that a small, Western-backed minority is seeking to impose on the majority of...

#Ukrainian forces are for the first time confirmed to be operating armored vehicles (Stryker & Marder infantry fighting vehicles) beyond the Russian anti-tank ditch and dragon’s teeth obstacles near #Verbove. We are not yet prepared to say that Ukraine has broken through this portion of the Russian line since these vehicles have not yet penetrated the last visible prepared defensive positions in the area. But the ability to bring armored vehicles to and through the most formidable Russian defenses intended to stop them and to operate them near prepared Russian defensive positions is an important sign of progress in the...

Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas are "demonstrably degrading" the morale of Russian forces in Ukraine, and this "could threaten the stability of Russian defenses on multiple critical areas of the front," the ISW said.... The ISW said morale issues can quickly intensify and spread among Russian frontline units if one unit under pressure breaks, which in turn could "spread panic" and "significantly reduce the combat effectiveness of other Russian forces." "A broken Russian frontline unit would threaten the integrity of other frontline defenses, and such a break in the Russian frontline would provide a vulnerability that Ukrainian forces could...

The ISW report asserts that "several indicators" suggest the attack was staged, noting that Russia recently enhanced "domestic air defense capabilities" while arguing it was "extremely unlikely" that Ukrainian drones could have thwarted "multiple layers of air defense" and be destroyed "in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera."..."The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience," the ISW report states.

Ukraine’s military has set up positions on the eastern side of the Dnipro River near Kherson city, the Institute for the Study of War cites Russian military bloggers as saying. Infiltrating the area could be a first step towards trying to dislodge Russian forces from positions they are using to shell and shoot at Kherson. The constant attacks have made it impossible for residents to return to normal life months after Ukrainian troops liberated the city from occupation. Ukrainian military forays across the river could also mark the first tentative steps towards launching a long-awaited spring offensive to reclaim more...

WAGNER Group warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin fears Ukraine has built up a 200,000-strong reserve of troops ready to launch a huge counter-blitz. The Russian billionaire has warned his feared mercenary army to "prepare for the worst". -snip- Prigozhin, who heads the group, said they have used reconnaissance satellites to spot the reserves. In a post published by Concord group on Telegram, he said: "There is a joke that ends with the phrase: 'So big, but you believe in fairy tales'. "Therefore, the political scientist Ishchenko and other very positive kind guys may turn out to be the best military analysts in...

According to Monday's assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), members of the Wagner Group have reportedly committed war crimes in the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city, according to videos posted by Russian social media users "purportedly showing the remains of a head belonging to a Ukrainian serviceman on a spike at an unspecified area in Bakhmut." "Social media users recalled similar instances of skulls mounted on spikes in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast, where Wagner troops operated over spring-summer of 2022," the assessment read.

Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western Donetsk Oblast. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) observed that Gerasimov has failed to extend Russian control over Donbas during...

Putin’s reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO. ISW previously assessed that Russian conventional war threats against NATO do not correspond with Russia’s capabilities and that Russia uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.[23] Putin evidently values his domestic status quo and seeks to avoid risky and controversial policies to support his own aims. Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculated individual who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks—even while his perception of the situation he faces...

Vladimir Putin is said to have turned against the head of the feared Russian Wagner mercenary group after he 'failed to take the hint' and kept on bragging that his forces were achieving more success than Russia's army. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has fallen out of favour with the Russian president after he continuously gloated his private paramilitary fighters were more superior and successful than the country's conventional forces, experts say. Earlier this month, Prigozhin bragged that his fighters had single-handedly taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar, which has been razed by fighting. Putin is said to...

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian...

Ukrainian forces are completing the liberation of the western (right) bank of Kherson Oblast after the Russians retreated from it. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completed the withdrawal to the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River at 5am local time on November 11.[1] While contingents of Russian soldiers likely remain on the west bank, they are likely scattered throughout the Oblast and attempting to retreat as Ukrainian forces push towards the Dnipro River, although some may have remained behind to attempt to conduct partisan activities in small groups. It is unclear how many Russian...

Key Takeaways: 1) The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a second day in a row. 2) Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov stated on October 24 that the impact of Russian terrorist strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure is waning. 3) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts on September 30 ignited a schism within the Kremlin, which will likely intensify as Ukraine liberates more territories according to Budanov. 4) Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a...

Russia has withdrawn some officers and medics from around the annexed city of Kherson as fears of a major Ukrainian offensive grow, said The Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Moscow is in retreat across the Dnipro River in anticipation of an advance of Ukrainian troops on the regional capital, the US-based think tank said on Sunday. "Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective," concluded the ISW, in a Russian Offensive Campaign assessment, on Saturday. The think tank, quoting the Ukrainian General Staff, stated...

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their...

The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update that Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant to cover their withdrawal and prevent Ukraine's forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. According to the ISW, Russia "has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive." The ISW said Russian authorities may believe that blowing up the dam will provide a buffer zone around eastern Kherson...