Free Republic

Wow! What are they going to do about those "flipped by discovered votes"seats?

Gov. Rick Scott declared victory Tuesday with a slim 0.68 percentage point win over U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who conceded even though his campaign raised issues with ballot counting in several South Florida counties. Nelson advisor Dan McLaughlin told supporters at Nelson’s election night event at the Embassy Suites in Orlando that the campaign had concerns about ballot counting in several south Florida counties. But just after midnight, the Nelson campaign said he would concede. “This is obviously not the result Senator Nelson's campaign has worked hard for,” said Pete Mitchell, Nelson’s campaign manager. “The senator will be making a...

While Tuesday night was not a complete win for Republicans, there was no blue wave, either. By most measures, Republicans beat the odds of history and nearly everyone’s expectations, while Democrats were left disappointed as the fantasy of Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams and others winning fizzled. Not one new progressive Democrat was successful bursting onto the scene. It will take a few days to process the meaning of this year’s election returns, but the instant analysis is clear: Democrats may have won the House, but Trump won the election.

President Donald Trump issued a triumphant tweet about Tuesday's midterm elections "Tremendous success tonight," Trump said. "Thank you to all!" Republicans made significant gains in the Senate, picking up key seats from incumbent Democrats in states where Trump won in 2016 and also turning back possible challenges in high-profile states like Texas. Holding the Senate gives Trump the opportunity to continue the historic pace of judicial nominations that have dominated the chamber's calendar in recent months. The GOP also got major wins in toss-up governors races in states like Florida and Ohio

President Trump, who constantly reminds us of his zest for winning, is about to embark on a campaign blitz.  He will visit eight states and his campaign will spend millions on advertising.  This will begin on Wednesday and last until election day.The result of the Trump campaign blitz will be big wins for the Republicans on election day.  The GOP will maintain a majority in the House of Representatives and increase their majority in the Senate to 56 or 57, but perhaps as high as 60.There are a number of reasons why the Democrats will again perform poorly in...

Sure, there’s probably some Kavanaugh effect at work here. Plus a little red-state effect. Plus a little “Heidi Heitkamp’s campaign committed one of the great unforced errors in recent political history” effect. Either way, it’s ballgame in North Dakota. In an exclusive poll by KVLY, KFYR and Strategic Research Associates of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 – 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of...

If you're a regular reader, this trend doesn't come as a surprise.  We've been tracking and flagging it since the Kavanaugh ordeal, which galvanized legions of previously-disengaged or underwhelmed GOP-leaning voters.  We've demonstrated how that impact has continued to reverberate, particularly in Senate races.  And now, the mainstream conventional wisdom appears to be catching up.  Charlie Cook, who leads the vaunted Cook Political Report, is out with a new detailed analysis pointing to a clear uptick in Republicans' fortunes: Charlie Cook: “One question that keeps coming back up is whether those who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against...

The battle over the confirmation of Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court has helped Republicans in the short term more than Democrats. Since the stunning “thumbs down” moment by the late Senator John McCain, R-Ariz., Republican enthusiasm has ebbed-and-flowed, while Democrats consistently reported higher levels of interest. For Republicans, the challenge this election cycle was two-fold: combating voter complacency and maintaining the more moderate wing of their coalition, specifically women, and even more specifically, Republican women. There was no downside for the GOP. They needed to increase enthusiasm, something the controversy over the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh...

Red Wave: Despite reports and questionable polling that indicates the House may go back to the Democrats — we don’t believe them, mind you — Republican leaders see opportunities to pick up Senate seats and are now going on the offense in key races the party believes it can win. Fox News reports that with less than one month before the November midterms, several Senate races are trending away from Democrats and toward the GOP, reinvigorating the party and convincing Republican leaders they can expand their slim majority in the upper chamber.

A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment. Arizona Kyrsten Sinema: 47% Martha McSally: 45% Indiana Joe Donnelly: 43% Mike Braun: 41% Missouri Claire McCaskill: 43% Josh Hawley: 43% North Dakota Kevin Cramer: 53% Heidi Heitkamp: 41% Tennessee Marsha Blackburn: 48% Phil Bredesen: 43%

The midterms are right around the corner and political pundits everywhere are sounding off about the most likely outcomes. And despite the feeling that Democrats are about to regain majorities, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Republicans can maintain their stronghold. --- The problem for the Democrats is that they have to defend ten seats in states that Trump won in 2016. On top of that, there aren’t very many opportunities to take seats from Republicans. The best chance the left has of regaining some control in Washington is to reclaim the House. They need to flip 24 seats...

Democrats who still hold out hope for a takeover of the senate in November are fretting about the prospects of one of their most vulnerable incumbents. Senator Bill Nelson is being outspent, out manuevered, and out classed in his race to keep his Florida senate seat blue. His opponent, Governor Rick Scott, has been all over the state, contrasting his vigorous campaign with that of the 75 year old Nelson. Any hopes of Democrats taking over the senate hinge on them holding seats in states won by Trump in 2016. All are locked in tight races with excellent GOP challengers....

A recent Survey Monkey poll (exposed by Wiki leaks as a Democrat collaborator willing to create fake poll results) showed bad news for a few Democrat Senators who will be running for re-election in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. This “survey” is a pile of crap that makes no sense. The popular interpretation of the results of the recently released Survey Monkey (SM) polls are wrong. They surveyed the re-election chances of Democrat Senators in states that were won by Donald Trump in 2016. SM found four of these vulnerable Democrats were already behind; and given the political...

Last December, Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate race in Alabama by defeating a horribly flawed Republican candidate Roy Moore. For the first time, it appeared that the Democrats had a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in 2018. The Republican advantage was trimmed to a 51-49 margin and a net change of two seats would make New York Senator Chuck Schumer the new Senate Majority leader. To win the Senate, all the Democrats had to do was win GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and successfully defend all of their incumbents. At the time, the Democrats...

The survey found that Tester would score 42 percent of his state's votes, with 55 percent saying they would vote Republican. Manchin is at 43 percent, with 52 percent voting Republican. Donnelly has 45 percent of votes, with 51 percent voting Republican. McCaskill is down 44 percent to Hawley's 52 percent. The polling was closer for Heitkamp. The survey said she would garner 47 percent, versus 49 percent for a generic Republican challenger.

There are new Senate ratings in five states. Updated bottom lines for these races are below. Our full ratings chart can be found here. 

As bad as things are for the GOP right now, remember that it’s even worse for Democrats. Case in point, the Cook Political Report just moved 4 2018 Senate races in the GOP’s direction:

December 27, 2016 President Obama claims he could have won a third term if he had been allowed to run – but even if he's right, his coattails haven’t done much for the rest of his party. While Obama’s tireless campaigning, broad demographic appeal and message of “hope” and “change” helped propel him to two terms in the White House, his skills on the stump haven’t translated down the ballot. The Democratic Party suffered huge losses at every level during Obama’s West Wing tenure. The grand total: a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and...

According to the Internet, the last time the Republicans had the Presidency and both houses of congress was 1928. That's 88 years ago! In 2010 President Obama called it a "Shellacking" when he lost the US House. When he lost the US Senate on top of that in 2014 the press said he was unrepentant. Now Obama and the Democrats have lost all three plus lost control in more state legislatures and governorships than in a long time. In short, the Democrats had a Blowout and the Question is whether they will learn from it and turn from the hard...

This month’s election produced great newsfor Republicans but sobering news for Democrats in the Pennsylvania Legislature. The question, however, remains if the GOP will capitalize on its expanded political fortunes to enact sound public policies. Not only did Republicans expand their House majority by three seats, they won a veto-proof majority in the Senate, which, of course, is a very important tool with a a governor of the opposite party. The House will have its largest majority in nearly 60 years. That Senate majority will be the largest in nearly 70 years. And with fewer moderates among the majority party’s...