Posted on 09/05/2018 6:36:53 AM PDT by MountainWalker
The midterms are right around the corner and political pundits everywhere are sounding off about the most likely outcomes. And despite the feeling that Democrats are about to regain majorities, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Republicans can maintain their stronghold.
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The problem for the Democrats is that they have to defend ten seats in states that Trump won in 2016. On top of that, there aren’t very many opportunities to take seats from Republicans.
The best chance the left has of regaining some control in Washington is to reclaim the House. They need to flip 24 seats here, which is neither unprecedented nor uncommon.
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All 435 House seats are up for grabs this year, with more than 10 percent of them considered highly competitive (tossups or slight leans towards one party).
Most pundits are predicting the Republicans hold on to their narrow lead in the Senate, while the Democrats regain control in the House -- albeit by a slight margin. So the idea of a red wave or blue wave doesn’t seem all that likely. However, as history has shown, it’s never smart to postulate the impossible. And while the blue version is certainly more probable, don’t count out a fiery red wave.
A Red Wave is Still Possible… And Here’s Why
Just as the Democrats need a lot to go right to facilitate a blue wave, the Republicans need a perfect storm of sorts. While some are more likely than others, here are a few of the reasons why a red wave is possible...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The Republicans need high turnout in about 25 close races and need to get out the Independent vote, not undoable.
A Red Wave is coming and unavoidable. There is not a single issue the Democrats support that voters want and several Democrat position are absolute deal breakers. Oh and don’t forget Hillary Clinton has a 95% chance of winning even at 7 PM on Election Night.
I don’t see a “red wave;” in fact, the communists will gain seats, but it remains to be seen if they actually can take control. Pretty sure the Repubs will hold the Senate.
After the stellar accuracy of the 2016 polls, what reason would anyone have to given one iota of credence to these predictions?
Dems, you better be looking over your shoulder for the red wave.
It way, way too early to dismiss a red wave. Trump is waiting to declassify material, I believe, that is going to be irrefutable evidence of Killary/Obozo crimes. Also, Trump hasn’t barely hit the campaign trail. When he does that, he fires up the base.
Yeah, I think the article is mostly trying to keep the troops motivated, but I guess we’ll see. Hopefully the president can help beat back the communist resistance in vulnerable districts and keep our losses to a minimum. I think we gain seats in the senate.
Anyhow, the left should have forever been red. Maybe the right should go white..
The lefties would go nuts..white (racist) get it.
Yup. I believe that Trump will declassify the pertinent documents 4-6 weeks out from the election - so in another 2-4 weeks give or take. This gives enough time to make sure the info can get out to the public and a short enough time that it can't be buried/forgotten.
I wish he’d define “wave.”
a wave to my thinking would be Republicans GAINING seats in the legislature, and by a healthy amount. Merely retaining a majority while losing seats isn’t a wave.
That plus the new Iran-Democrat collusion.
Nully's modest proposal to end voter fraud:
• Paper ballots with human readable marks. They may be computer generated, and/or computer counted, but there must be a paper audit trail of each vote.
• Purple fingers
• Mandatory free on demand BIOMETRIC (iris scan, nobody ever left their irises at a crime scene!) photo ID, with a database that instantly flags for arrest anyone seeking multiple IDs. Change of name? Simply have your old card voided when you apply for the new one.
• No precinct reports their totals until ALL precincts report they have totals. No results are released untill all results are in. This prevents the last to report precinct captains from knowing how much to fudge a report to give a win to their preferred candidate while maintaining some slight semblance of credibility.
• Repeal Motor Voter.
• End same-day registration where it exists, and allow ample time between registration and election for vetting of credentials of registrants.
• Instantly deport any non-citizen who registers to vote.
• Put a little ⩍ next to the names of those registered voters with death certificates, and detain and put a 72 hour psychiatric hold anyone claiming to be a dead person...
With enough vote fraud anything is possible, even a blue tidal wave.
With enough vote fraud anything is possible, even a blue tidal wave.
This is not my day for posting. *sigh*
It’s funny; as much as Democrats aren’t running on a platform other than ‘we hate Trump’ (and a bevy of nonsense concepts like eliminating ICE, etc), Republicans aren’t stacking behind the president’s policies either.
Obamacare is still out there, insurance rates are going up (expect announcements as to how much right before the election, and picture a 12-15% increase with up to 20% in California...), you’ll also have a whole lot of ‘global warming is killing us’ stories as fires sweep through California (thank you Trump for starting the process of thinning the forest, but there’s a whole lot of (federal) forest land and a stack of judgments from courts saying you can’t do a dang thing about it because of spotted owls, tiny frogs, etc...)
I don’t want the status quo, I want to keep winning, so Republicans really need to get on the ball, coordinate with the white house, and actually push agenda items forward.
All in all, it seems like the parties are heading towards not much change either way. All politics are local when it comes to congressional races, of course, but if either side wants a wave, they need to put someone’s hand on the wheel and steer it towards something or it’ll be a push come November.
It’s funny; as much as Democrats aren’t running on a platform other than ‘we hate Trump’ (and a bevy of nonsense concepts like eliminating ICE, etc), Republicans aren’t stacking behind the president’s policies either.
Obamacare is still out there, insurance rates are going up (expect announcements as to how much right before the election, and picture a 12-15% increase with up to 20% in California...), you’ll also have a whole lot of ‘global warming is killing us’ stories as fires sweep through California (thank you Trump for starting the process of thinning the forest, but there’s a whole lot of (federal) forest land and a stack of judgments from courts saying you can’t do a dang thing about it because of spotted owls, tiny frogs, etc...)
I don’t want the status quo, I want to keep winning, so Republicans really need to get on the ball, coordinate with the white house, and actually push agenda items forward.
All in all, it seems like the parties are heading towards not much change either way. All politics are local when it comes to congressional races, of course, but if either side wants a wave, they need to put someone’s hand on the wheel and steer it towards something or it’ll be a push come November.
Check Rasmussen’s “Heading in the Right Direction” poll and the latest numbers are at minus -9, with 43% saying in the right direction versus 52% saying in wrong.
At this point in 2010 (Aug 23-29, 2010), it was a gap of -35, with 29% saying in right direction versus 64% saying in wrong (when Obama lost Congress later that November).
Further historical reference:
2012-(period of Aug 27-Sept 2)-gap was -31%, with 31 percent saying in right direction versus 62 percent saying in wrong (Obama kept White House and Dems kept Senate, but failed to get Congress back).
2014 (Aug 25-Aug 31)-gap was at -41%, with 25 percent saying in right direction versus 66 percent saying in wrong direction. About two months later for his last midterm elections, Obama and Democrats still fail to win back Congress and also lose control of Senate.
2016 (Aug 28-Sept 1)-gap was at -37%, with 28 percent saying country headed in right direction versus 65 percent saying headed in wrong direction. Hillary Clinton loses White House and Dems fail to recapture either Congress or Senate.
I present these numbers as an observation, and not as a last word as I do not have a crystal ball or Doctor Who’s Police Call Box (or even Michael J Fox’s DeLorean from “Back to the Future”) to predict what will happen in November.
However, there seems to be that very serious disconnect concerning the media and how many, many voters at the grassroots level perceive issues. The President who was in office from 2010 through 2016 was very much admired and supported by media and entertainment industry elite, but could not really convince these voters about the positive effects of his policies and thus was rejected in many instances. The current President receives the opposite treatment from these media and entertainment elites, but likely has been able to connect more effectively with these same voters.
In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold a 51 to 49 lead. There are 35 seats up for grabs this year, of which 26 are held by Democrats. Considering that they need to gain two seats in order to take control, the Democrats face an uphill battle. They’ll essentially need a clean sweep — plus two additional seats.
The problem for the Democrats is that they have to defend ten seats in states that Trump won in 2016. On top of that, there aren’t very many opportunities to take seats from Republicans.
The best chance the left has of regaining some control in Washington is to reclaim the House.
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