Free Republic

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in March, with Democrats’ expectations for the economy hitting an all-time low, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, highlighting an unprecedented partisan divide in economic outlook. The survey’s headline index dropped to 57.9, down from 64.7 in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2022. While sentiment declined across income levels and age groups, Democrats saw the sharpest deterioration, with their expectations index plunging to 28.2—a level lower than during the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, or Donald Trump’s first term. By contrast, Republican expectations remained high at 95.7, marking a...

While Reagan, Sean McNamara's new movie, has received largely negative reviews from critics, it has beaten box office expectations during its first weekend, ranking No. 4 on the charts. The Ronald Reagan biopic, which depicts the life of the actor and politician, stars Dennis Quaid as the 40th president and Penelope Ann Miller as Nancy Reagan. The film is loosely based on The Crusader: Ronald Reagan and the Fall of Communism, a 2006 book written by Paul Kengor. Reagan tells the story of its subject from his childhood through his acting career—with a focus on his struggle against communists in...

The challenge for Iran in retaliation was trying to go beyond its April attack on Israel. Iran now wants to message about how it reserves the right to at some later date. Almost three weeks after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, the Iranian regime is trying to step down from its early claims it would carry out an attack on Israel in retaliation. The regime in Tehran has built up a lot of expectations regarding how it would attack Israel. Now it is trying to shift messaging. The challenge for Iran in retaliation was trying to...

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to new Commerce Department data released Thursday. Economists had expected gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.9 percent in the three-month period between April and June, closer to the 1.4 percent growth posted in the first quarter of the year. The strong report comes as the Federal Reserve is set to meet next week to consider changing interest rates, which it has held steady since last July. The central bank has kept rates at a two-decade high, as inflation has remained...

On Friday’s broadcast of Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein reacted to the March PCE report that showed the yearly PCE inflation rate increasing with the annual core rate holding steady along with 0.3% monthly growth in both overall and core PCE, the same as it was in February by stating that “It was nice to hit the expectations number for the PCE, both headline and core, this morning.” And said that “we expect inflation to continue a bumpy path down towards target.”

U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year, and prices rose at a faster pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 2.4% following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the previous period. Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain...

Private sector job creation slowed further in November and wages showed their smallest growth in more than two years, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added just 103,000 workers for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and missing the 128,000 Dow Jones estimate. Along with the modest job growth came a 5.6% increase in annual pay, which ADP said was the smallest gain since September 2021. Job-changers saw wage increases of 8.3%, making the premium for switching positions the lowest since ADP began tracking the data three years ago.

URBANDALE, Iowa — Longshot Republican presidential candidate Doug Burgum insists he’s staying in the 2024 race at least long enough to “beat expectations” in January’s Iowa caucuses — a goal which he joked should be easy to meet, since he has “the lowest expectations.” The billionaire North Dakota governor failed to qualify for the third RNC debate earlier this month, is unlikely to make the stage for the next debate Dec. 6 in Alabama, and is averaging just 2.7% support in the Hawkeye State, according to RealClearPolitics — a mere 44.3 percentage points behind former President Donald Trump. So what,...

Gross domestic product (GDP) levels came in hot in the second quarter, growing at a 2.4 percent rate that marked the fourth straight quarter of positive growth and underlined the resilience of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Bloomberg had been expecting GDP growth of around 1.8 percent, meaning the 2.4 percent growth was a pleasant surprise — especially with other recent data indicating slowing inflation. The numbers from the Commerce Department are the latest sign of strength in the U.S. economy, and they come a day after the Federal Reserve reversed its March prediction of a “mild recession” to...

The U.S. added 339,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The job market scrambled the expectations of economists in May. Expert forecasters projected a gain of roughly 195,000 jobs last month, according to consensus estimates, but for the jobless rate to stay largely even at 3.5 percent. The jobless rate has bounced between 3.4 percent — its level in April — and 3.7 percent since March 2022. The Labor Department also revised March and April’s job gains up by a combined 93,000 jobs, the latest sign...

Former President Trump blamed the “abortion issue” for Republicans underperforming expectations in the 2022 midterm elections. Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday that many in the GOP handled the issue poorly, especially those who “firmly” insisted on no exceptions to bans on the procedure, including in instances of rape and incest. He also said he is not to blame for the party’s performance, responding to many in the GOP who have pointed to him as a reason for its losses.

Tesla’s Q3 sales of its cars and SUVs broke records as the company's factory in Shanghai got past pandemic-related supply chain issues but still fell far short of expectations The electric vehicle and solar panel company said Sunday it sold 343,830 cars and SUVs in the third quarter, compared with the 254,695 deliveries it made from April through June.

President Joe Biden continues trumpeting his agenda on the fundraising circuit even as he quietly prepares his supporters for a Republican takeover. “If we lose control of the House and Senate, we have a different world,” Biden told supporters in New York City on Wednesday. “I’ll be spending all my time with the veto pen, but it won’t be a lot of initiatives.” During his fundraising trip through New York City, the president spoke to donors about “enormous, enormous, enormous opportunity” in the next few years of his presidency, but he is also setting the stage to hold his ground...

Another day, another contradictory economic data point.Just one business day after the latest UMichigan report showed consumer sentiment in January tumbled to the lowest level since 2011, driven in large part by the continued surge in inflation expectations which hit a whopping 5.0% for the 1-year window, the highest since 2008 and a remarkable 3.1% for the 5-10 year period, the highest since 2011 and following a relentless increase over the past two years… … moments ago the NY Fed published its own contradicting view on the critical issue of consumer inflation expectations – critical because the higher it rises,...

Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations reached a record high in October, according to survey results released Monday by the Federal Reserve of New York. Heads of households surveyed by the New York Fed expected consumer prices to rise by a median of 5.7 percent over the next year, according to the bank’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations. The one-year inflation rate projected by consumers rose 0.4 percentage points since September and reached the highest level since the survey began in 2013. The median expectation for the inflation rate for the next three years stayed even at 4.2 percent, a record set...

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent, an unexpectedly poor showing falling well below expectations. The meager showing exposed unexpected gaps in a recovery that some economists were fretting would "overheat" by recovering too quickly. "For those who feared the US economy would overheat, the bigger risk may be that it is undercooked," said The Atlantic Council's Josh Lipsky.

Bad teaching is a common explanation given for the disastrously inadequate public education received by America’s most vulnerable populations. This is a myth. Aside from a few lemons who were notable for their rarity, the majority of teachers I worked with for nine years in New York City’s public school system were dedicated, talented professionals. Before joining the system I was mystified by the schools’ abysmal results. I too assumed there must be something wrong with the teaching. This could not have been farther from the truth. Teaching French and Italian in NYC high schools I finally figured out why...

New statistics released by the Congressional Budget Office projected record breaking GDP growth throughout 2018; smashing expectations and signaling a robust US recovery under President Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress. According to CNS News, the strong data shows Gross Domestic Product growing by at least 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018; the highest level of growth seen in at least 15 years. “In CBO’s projections, real GDP expands by 3.3 percent this year and by 2.4 percent in 2019,” says the CBO report. “It grew by 2.6 percent last year.” “In our economic...

Speaking at a Rotary Club gathering in Kentucky on Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell vented about how President Donald Trump's lack of political experience has led to him setting “excessive expectations” for legislative priorities. McConnell, R-Ky., told the group in Florence that he found it “extremely irritating” that Congress has earned the reputation of not accomplishing anything. “Part of the reason I think that the storyline is that we haven’t done much is because, in part, the president and others have set these early timelines about things need to be done by a certain point,” said McConnell, a Republican...

Many people are wondering how it’s possible to track the CoC/Wall Street Jeb Bush election strategy, outlined here. While I usually don’t post these types of research material links (it can get rather wonky), perhaps this will assist readers in understanding what leads to our road-map. Since the advent of the Citizens United decision, the GOPe affiliates have used Super-Pacs to fund political candidates. Unfortunately, this means you don’t get to see the actual donors to those PAC’s – which means there’s an additional curtain to the donor. The development of, and refinement of, this strategy (which took place in...