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Germany's centre-right Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, have failed to win a governing majority in Sunday's election, exit polls suggest. They indicate that the Christian Democrats will be the largest party in what is likely to be a hung parliament. Ms Merkel - who wants to introduce far-reaching reforms to revive a flagging economy - said she had a "clear mandate" to govern. But she could be forced into a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. Germany's ARD television puts with Christian Democrats in the lead with 36% of the vote - much worse than expected. Their preferred coalition...

A persuasive new theory explains why Kerry beat Bush in Election Day exit polls. Just don't expect those still crying "fraud" to believe it. http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/06/15/exit_polls/index_np.html

Better training of interviewers to get a proper sample of voters after they cast ballots will be key to improving the performance of exit polls, one pollster who handled the 2004 election surveys said Saturday. Exit polls on Election Day 2004 overstated support for Democrat John Kerry overall and in many key states, which led to widespread confusion that day about the election eventually won by President Bush. The exit polls contacted more supporters of Kerry than of Bush because of "the failure of interviewers to follow the selection rate," said Warren Mitofsky, who conducted the exit polls along with...

Tony Blair is on course to win an historic third term for Labour but with a much reduced majority, according to a joint BBC/ITV exit poll. The poll suggests Mr Blair's majority will be reduced from 160 to 66. The findings - based on 13,000 voters from 320 polling stations in marginal seats - were announced as polls closed in the 2005 general election. Counting is now underway with the first results of the night expected shortly after 2300 BST.

The Vote is under way!

Election 2004 - "Exit-Poll Disinformation Hoax Backfires?" Part V Manipulated Exit-Poll Data for Lethal Affect on Republican Voter Turnout Manipulated Exit-Poll Data to De-legitimize the Republican Presidency by Col. John H. Wambough, Jr. USAF (Ret.) j-bwambough@cox.net - www.nsar.us Election Reform: Count Votes - No More Winner Projections by Democrat Manipulated Exit Polls Permanent Link: http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp. [March 5, 2005] Manipulated Exit-Poll Data to De-legitimize the Republican Presidency - Whether the CACTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and December 5th Addendum) or analysis being done by statisticians such as Stephen F. Freeman (who likely understates sampling errors for Election 2004 exit polls), statistical analysis...

Statistical Analysis of Disinformation Exit Polls - Whether the CACTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and December 5th Addendum) or analysis being done by statisticians such as Stephen F. Freeman (who likely understates sampling errors for Election 2004 exit polls), their analysis is mainly focused on the backend of the exit-poll controversy (on data that emerged after polls closed). My concerns are at the front-end with the early disinformation data (before any polls closed) that hoodwinked the American people into believing Kerry would win the election. Why would any exit-polling company circulate data to the broadcast Networks that Kerry was winning in...

Key excerpts: Of the newly disclosed data in the Edison/Mitofsky report on this year's exit polls, some of the most important concern results from past elections. While it is is true that the average "within precinct error" (WPE) of 6.5 percentage points in Kerry's favor was, as the report states, "the largest...we have observed on the national level in the last five elections" (p. 31) there was also a similar error in 1992 and a bias favoring Democrats in every national exit poll conducted since the networks started doing a combined exit poll in 1988. Finally, one last gossipy tidbit...

SOME DEMOCRATS and liberals who refused to “moveon” after President Bush won reelection in November either fabricated or latched on to all sorts of conspiracy theories in their desperation and despair. None has been shown to have any basis in fact, and last week the very first conspiracy theory offered on Election Day was soundly crushed by a polling company investigation. Exit polls on Election Day showed John Kerry with sizable leads in state after state. The polls so consistently predicted a Kerry victory that conservative columnist Bill Buckley told a group of friends in an ominous tone, “It shall...

The report does give this as a possible reason, but gives very little evidence to support the thesis. In a few places, they point out how data being presented does fit that theory, but there are just as many cases where the data works against that thesis and they do not make such mention (I have tried to point out several of these instances in this post). I agree with Mark that “Speculation by NEP officials about a systematic non-response bias favoring Kerry is significant, because they are certainly in a position to confirm any such bias.” It is significant...

The companies that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations said yesterday that bad polling procedures caused them to overstate John Kerry's vote in key states that President Bush won. In a report to explain how early exit polls could be so far off from the actual results, the two firms blamed their problems on youthful, inexperienced poll takers, more motivated Democrats, early leaks of raw numbers by bloggers and a failure to follow interviewing rules. But an independent pollster said yesterday that the firms still had not told the full story behind the error-filled polls and questioned...

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky Internationalfor the National Election Pool (NEP)Executive SummaryOn November 2, 2004, the Election System created by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP) produced election estimates and exit poll data for analysis in 120 races in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In addition, between January and March 2004, Edison and Mitofsky conducted exit polls for 23 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses. For every election, the system delivered on its main goals: there were no incorrect NEP winner projections, and the exit poll...

I am still in shock. Here we are, less than twenty days from the inaguration of W. part II and John Conyers is still protesting the election in Ohio! My first question is why? Didn't his buddy Michael Moore have hundred of election day observers with video cameras stationed all around the state looking for trouble? They found none, but that isn't good enough for John. Conyers is claiming there were serious election irregularities and "significant disenfranchisement" of Ohio voters. As claim of this, he and his buddies have compiled a 102 page report listing what they say is enough...

Mickey Kaus continues to cement his reputation as a Democrat with an actual brain. Today he links to an excellent takedown of Edison/Mitofsky, the firm that conducted the Exit Polls for the 2004 Presidential Elections, by the blogger Mystery Pollster. Kaus points out the following: As late as 7:33 P.M. on Election Day, Mitofsky and Lenski were apparently telling their clients (NBC, CBS, CNN, AP, etc.) that after "weighting" Kerry was beating Bush by 9 points among women and losing by only 4 among men. He backs his claim with this Edison/Mitofsky actual report that was forwarded to the National...

What with President Bush's reelection, the expanded GOP majorities in the Senate and House, the aggressive reshuffling of the Cabinet, and speculation about tax reform, judicial nominations and more in W's second term, it's not surprising that discussion of the exit polling fiasco has been so quickly pushed to the side. In a way, I suppose, it doesn't matter, particularly if you agree with Billy Shakespeare that "all's well that ends well."But before the matter is forgotten (at least until next Election Day), I wanted to bring the issue up once more, because it remains a profound outrage, one that...

The journalists were convinced Bush would lose. Backstage at rallies, reporters plugged the latest poll numbers into electoral math calculators on the Web. Kerry came out ahead every time. On Election Day the early exit polls seemed to bear out the correspondents' predictions: Bush was losing Florida and Ohio and was getting demolished in Pennsylvania. When I got to RNC headquarters near Capitol Hill, Griffin was marveling at a bank of four TV screens. "We're gonna win big!" he exclaimed. The numbers kept getting better. Griffin's face was aglow. "Isn't this some kind of night?" he cried.

Some blogs were wrong about the meaning of the exit polls but right about CBS. Engberg conveniently ignored the fact that the media were wrong about the 2000 election calls. Jay Evensen, editor of the Deseret Morning News editorial page, calls the 2000 election night a "perfect storm." "It was when we in the news business had to hunt for the Dramamine because of the motion sickness," he recalls. One wonders what Engberg would say about Cleveland anchor Sharon Reed of WOIO, who decided to go naked for a story in a craven race for ratings during November's sweeps.

In an unsolicited e-mail to Countdown, Warren Mitofsky wrote that he was “struck by the misinformation” in our program. He heads Mitofsky International, which along with Edison Media Research, conducted the election night exit polling for the television networks and the Associated Press. I referred to the variance among the early and late exit polls, and the voting. Insisting “there were no early exit polls” released by his company or Edison, Mr. Mitofsky wrote “the early release came from unauthorized leaks to bloggers who posted misinformation.”Mitofsky compared those leaks to “the score at half time at a football game” and...

I'm hoping I'm not the only person who has noticed this. The Bush administration in the past has viewed democrat election fraud and the machinations of the mainstream media on behalf of the DNC as either victimless crimes or something they had no options other than to live with. Nonetheless, as today's news from the Ukraine should make sufficiently obvious, the stunt which the MSM pulled with the exit polls in our recent election was not a victimless crime. The victim was the credibility of the United States government when it tries to say anything about exit polls not matching...

In yesterday's Washington Post, director of polling Rich Morin wrote about the abysmal failure of the exit polls to predict the winner on election day. To review the bidding, beginning in early afternoon, exit polls showed Senator Kerry leading by a little in most of the battleground states and by a lot in some others. For example, the early polls had Kerry leading in Florida by about four percentage points and in Pennsylvania by 16. [When the votes were actually counted, Bush won Florida by five percentage points (52-47) and Kerry won Pennsylvania by about two (51-49).] As was stated...