War Room (Exit poll favors Dems every year since 88, co-CEO was caught leaking data to Dems in 92)

Mystery Pollster ^ | January 27, 2005 | Mark Blumenthal

[Cableguy]

Key excerpts:

Of the newly disclosed data in the Edison/Mitofsky report on this year's exit polls, some of the most important concern results from past elections.

While it is is true that the average "within precinct error" (WPE) of 6.5 percentage points in Kerry's favor was, as the report states, "the largest...we have observed on the national level in the last five elections" (p. 31) there was also a similar error in 1992 and a bias favoring Democrats in every national exit poll conducted since the networks started doing a combined exit poll in 1988.

Finally, one last gossipy tidbit with appeal to those still smarting over the "bloggers blew it" meme: The cameras caught Carville charging into George's office with the very first leaked exit poll results. Carvile says:

"Popkin talked to Warren Whatever, the head of the VRS, and he's going to talk to him again in four minutes, but his initial impression is landslide, could be up to 12 [points], maybe 400 electoral votes."

Translation: Samuel L. Popkin, a University of California San Diego political science professor who had been advising the Clinton campaign in 1992 had talked to Warren Mitofsky, the head of Voter News Services (VNS, the forerunner of NEP) about the "first call" numbers. You can draw your own conclusions about whether the "initial impressions" belonged to Popkin or Mitofsky. The final result was a bit different. Clinton won the national popular vote by a 6.4% margin, not 12% and won 370 Electoral College votes, not 400.

So, assuming we believe James, the leak came not from some irresponsible blogger but from Mitofsky to Popkin to Carville.

[Cableguy]

Networks pay something like $10 million for a biased, faulty poll and the founders leak it to their Democrat buddies in the campaign and the media.

[flashbunny]

me: The cameras caught Carville charging into George's office with the very first leaked exit poll results. Carvile says:

"Popkin talked to Warren Whatever, the head of the VRS, and he's going to talk to him again in four minutes, but his initial impression is landslide, could be up to 12 [points], maybe 400 electoral votes."

That's the sweetest part of the whole thing: How the libs where wrapped up in euphoric feelings based on false info, only to see them come crashing down with a thud on the shores of reality.

[lormand]

For the first time in my life, I purposely avoided watching or listening to ANY election day stuff. When I got home, I told my wife that I did not want to know anything, and that the only TV I will watch is Food TV.

I went to sleep then woke up about 5 AM and found out that not only did Dubya won, but dAssHole lost his seat.

Doing so saved me another year of life and kept my blood pressure low.

[Jumper]

So does this constitute the same type of liberal money laundering as does $10M to Hillary for a book, or is it in the ballpark of the Newt Grin"grinch" $297K to charity?

[LasVegasMac]

The cameras caught Carville charging into George's office with the very first leaked exit poll results.

I wonder if the cameras caught Carville putting a trash can on his head.

Again.

LVM

[OldFriend]

LOLOL.....are you me????????????<<

I remembered Drudge putting up big headlines that Bowels was beating Elizabeth Dole big time.

Needless to say, Dole won and I was determined to avoid any news at all till my Dubya won!!!

[PhiKapMom]

In 1994, Dan Rather declared Texas for Ma Richards right after the polls closed but then backed off with too close to call and didn't call the election until five minutes before Ma gave her concession speech even though Pres Bush had been ahead of her the whole evening. After he finally said Bush had won he lectured us on how could we turn out such a lovely lady and he was almost crying. That was the end of Dan Rather in our House! Rather made a fool of himself then and some things never change! :)

[OldFriend]

Why am I not surprised. But it's not just Rather, it's the entire main stream media. And it has been ever thus.

[PhiKapMom]

It was funny that night -- CBS local declared the State for Pres Bush almost immediately against what their national was saying. ABC and NBC went for Pres Bush several hours before Rather.

[OldFriend]

I seem to remember Jean Carnahan conceding her senate seat loss before one of the channels was acknowledging the republican won.

I watched her concession speech and changed the channel to see the talking head discussing the race as tho it hadn't been decided.