Polling firms blame youth, leaks for errors

THE WASHINGTON TIMES ^ | January 20, 2005 | By Donald Lambro

[Former Military Chick]

The companies that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations said yesterday that bad polling procedures caused them to overstate John Kerry's vote in key states that President Bush won.

In a report to explain how early exit polls could be so far off from the actual results, the two firms blamed their problems on youthful, inexperienced poll takers, more motivated Democrats, early leaks of raw numbers by bloggers and a failure to follow interviewing rules.

But an independent pollster said yesterday that the firms still had not told the full story behind the error-filled polls and questioned whether exit polling should be used to project the final outcome of an election.

"I'm not sure we're at full disclosure yet. An awful lot still needs to be explained," said pollster John Zogby, who expressed deep skepticism about the report's explanations and excuses. "The sum total of what we got today is enough to suggest that there should never be exit polls again."

Among the explanations offered by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, the two polling firms that were hired by a consortium of news organizations: Mr. Kerry's supporters were more likely than Mr. Bush's voters to agree to participate in exit poll interviews.

Polling errors were found to be made more frequently by younger interviewers, about half of whom were 34 or younger.

Early preliminary polling data collected during Election Day that was not supposed to be made public was leaked to blogger Web sites and suggested a wider Kerry lead than he actually had. Interviewers in many precincts were kept 50 feet or more away from voting places, potentially skewing the results toward Kerry supporters who were eager to participate in exit polling interviews.

[Former Military Chick]

There always has to be someone to blame, now it is our youth, has to make you wonder.

[Mo1]

FYI

[smonk]

this story seems to be everywhere I look tonight . . . .

[Waco]

Quite a few voters lie to the pollsters. Remember when that advice went around several years ago? It has not been mentioned this time around.

[nopardons]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm...passing the buck and not looking at their own methods closely. And Zogby's special sauce couldn't convince people to vote for Kerry/the Dems didn't manage to stuff enough ballot boxes,to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.

[VIDADDICT]

81 days later. They're still looking for answers. PATHETIC!

[Prime Choice]

The companies that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations said yesterday that bad polling procedures caused them to overstate John Kerry's vote in key states that President Bush won.

Bull. They were trying to throw the election for Kerry, just like the Leftist media had been trying all along.

[Texasforever]

If the truth is ever known I would put my money on the Kerry campaign. This was the equivalent of calling Florida before the polls closed in the panhandle. Kerry's campaign "leaked" the results to suppress Republican turn-out and it damn near worked.

[Apercu]

The Dems flooded the exit polls & then leaked the pro Kerry numbers to various media with the intent of influencing the vote turnout.Fortunately, the ploy did not work in this election. I believe there is an ongoing DOJ investigation concerning this tactic.

[Mo1]

Wasn't it already reported that the leak came from the Kerry camp?

[Graybeard58]

It has not been mentioned this time around.

Rush suggested it to his listeners before the election. How many listeners does he have? 20,000,000 or so?

[Texasforever]

Wasn't it already reported that the leak came from the Kerry camp?

Dick Morris implied it.

[Former Military Chick]

Anything to take away from Bush's big day .. I can only imagine it getting worse.

[blondee123]

They have a new excuse weekly now! They just can't face the fact that the majority of the people did NOT want sKerry to lead this country.

[BigSkyFreeper]

The exit pollers and the media were all in the same boat together with the Democrats.

[Mo1]

Oh .. I thought there was a more reliable source

Oh well

[smonk]

---Anything to take away from Bush's big day .. I can only imagine it getting worse.---

that's just it, though. it plays against W's detractors, and it's running in some pretty republican publications/web sites. the washington times is no NYT.

[smonk]

---Kerry's campaign "leaked" the results to suppress Republican turn-out and it damn near worked.---

I have never been as miserable in my life as I was between noon and around 11:30 p.m. on election day. I was sure we were cooked.

thank God that 2004's exit polls were like every other exit pool since 1988 (and something I will try to remember 4 years hence) and badly overstated the democrat vote.

[My2Cents]

two firms blamed their problems on youthful, inexperienced poll takers,

Pollster: "DUDE! Like, does Kerry ROCK or what!?"

[Texasforever]

I have never been as miserable in my life as I was between noon and around 11:30 p.m. on election day. I was sure we were cooked

The minute I heard that Georgia was too close to call I knew the exit pools were screwed up.