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It will be a few more weeks before we know exactly what went wrong with the 2004 exit polls. But this much we know right now: The resulting furor was the best thing that could have happened to journalism, to polling and to the bloggers who made this year's Election Day such a cheap thrill. That's because the 2004 election may have finally stripped exit polling of its reputation as the crown jewel of political surveys, somehow immune from the myriad problems that affect telephone polls and other types of public opinion surveys. Instead, this face-to-face, catch-the-voters-on-the-way-out poll has been...

The exit polls this year indicated a big lead for John Kerry. But when final vote tallies came in George Bush had earned a decisive victory

It instantly became part of American political legend: President Bush received a hefty 44% of the Hispanic vote on Nov. 2, up sharply from the 35% he garnered in 2000. Pundits credited the Latino surge to the GOP -- as measured by two sets of media exit polls -- for Bush's wins in such battleground states as Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. Sounds impressive. But is it true?Some Democratic and Hispanic activist say it's not. The William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, conducted its own exit polls, which found Bush winning 34% of the Latino vote - no...

In May 2003, I suggested in this space that the exit polls would need more than a makeover. I also questioned the wisdom of putting veteran exit pollster Warren Mitofsky in charge. Shortly thereafter, I received a telephone call from Mitofsky, who, naturally, expressed his disagreement with my opinions. Later in the year, I heard from Mitofsky again when I criticized his exit polls in the California gubernatorial recall election. I’ll say this for him: Mitofsky is a great flack. And he must be a great salesman. Anyone who can talk the networks into giving him $10 million for the...

Election Day 2004 threw a bucket of cold water on Democratic hopes that America's changing demographics would necessarily improve their future prospects. Exit polls indicate the Bush campaign increased its share of the white vote even as it expanded its appeal to minorities, especially Hispanics. And there were decisive Republican victories in the bubbling multiculture of Florida and in increasingly diverse Nevada, not to mention a narrow win in heavily Hispanic New Mexico. Until Nov. 2, Democrats had viewed the nation's growing diversity as their ace in the hole: As America became less white, they reasoned, the party's fortunes would...

On Election Day, as exit polls boded well for Kerry—until they didn’t—we conducted one of our own at several polling places in the city. Would people really leave the country? And what were they thinking about campaign 2005? Did you vote for Kerry or Bush? Kerry (78) Bush (20) Nader (1) Wouldn’t say (1) What do you think was Kerry’s biggest mistake? “Focusing too much on Vietnam.” “Not strong enough on national security.” “Teresa Heinz.” “Mary Cheney.” “Not having a real plan for Iraq.” “Too intelligent for America.” With a Bush victory, would you think about moving out of the...

Voting Machines and the Underestimate of the Bush Vote Summary 1. A series of claims have been made in recent days alleging that discrepancies between exit poll results and the presidential vote in certain states provides evidence of malfeasance in those states. These claims seem to be concentrated on states using electronic voting systems. 2. Exit polls predicted a significantly greater vote for Kerry nationwide than the official returns confirmed, but there is not any apparent systematic bias when we take this same analysis to the state level. 3. Analysis of deviations between the exit polls and the official returns...

(CNSNews.com) - An emerging conspiracy theory among some political left wingers acccuses Republicans of stealing the 2004 presidential election. While many Americans wonder why Election Day exit polling was so inaccurate and showed Democrat John Kerry winning, liberal bloggers and activists insist the exit polls were correct and that Republican forces used fraud to help President Bush win re-election on Nov. 2. But the controversy isn't confined to bloggers and activists. Greg Palast, a contributing editor to Harper's magazine, conducted an investigation into voter fraud for BBC television's Newsnight. "I know you don't want to hear it. You can't...

When the bogus exit polls began coming in on Tuesday, they were a jarring shock to everyone following the presidential campaign on all sides. Returning from Texas to the White House, administration officials on Air Force One reportedly became sickened at the prospect of a vast landslide against President Bush. The president, however, was quoted as saying upon learning this news: "It is what it is."

Just because it was November, didn't mean that the Kerry camp and its network shills couldn't come up with some more "October surprises." After all, for the Democrats and their media affiliates, it's always October. No ExitOn Election Day, the early returns from the Big Media-commissioned "exit polls" were that Senator John Kerry was drubbing President Bush across the East, especially in the two states Bush had to carry, Florida and Ohio, if he was to have a chance at winning the election. Keep in mind, that unlike the network election coverage, which begins in earnest only after the polls...

Updated Late Afternoon NumbersMucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance. By Jack  ShaferUpdated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT FloridaKerry     51Bush       49OhioKerry   51Bush     49MichiganKerry   52Bush     46Nader     1  PennsylvaniaKerry   53Bush     46IowaKerry   50Bush     49WisconsinKerry     51Bush       48Nader       1MinnesotaKerry     52Bush       46Nader         2New HampshireKerry     54Bush       44Nader       1New MexicoKerry     50Bush       48Nader       1ColoradoKerry     49Bush       50Nader       1ArkansasKerry     45Bush       54Nader       1MissouriKerry     47Bush       52New YorkKerry     62Bush       36Nader       2NevadaKerry       49Bush         48Nader         1New JerseyKerry       54Bush         44Nader         1West VirginiaKerry       45Bush         54Nader         1Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads  by...

When I spoke with Jeff Fisher this morning (Saturday, November 06, 2004), the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Florida's 16th District said he was waiting for the FBI to show up. Fisher has evidence, he says, not only that the Florida election was hacked, but of who hacked it and how. And not just this year, he said, but that these same people had previously hacked the Democratic primary race in 2002 so that Jeb Bush would not have to run against Janet Reno, who presented a real threat to Jeb, but instead against Bill McBride,...

Just because it was November, didn't mean that the Kerry camp and its network shills couldn't come up with some more "October surprises." After all, for the Democrats and their media affiliates, it's always October. No Exit On Election Day, the early returns from the Big Media-commissioned "exit polls" were that Sen. John Kerry was drubbing Pres. Bush across the East, especially in the two states Bush had to carry, Florida and Ohio, if Bush was to have a chance at winning the election. Keep in mind, that unlike the network election coverage, which begins in earnest only after the...

Pop quiz! It's been a long time since a sitting president has had a son. President Bush has Twinkle and Turquoise -- the Secret Service code names for Jenna and Barbara, respectively -- and the Clintons have Chelsea. So quick: Who was the last presidential son? Was your answer Ron Reagan Jr.? That seems to be the first name that pops to mind. Or maybe you thought of the male offspring of Jimmy Carter or Gerald Ford. All wrong answers. The last presidential son, of course, was . .. George W. Bush. Tricky! Reminds me of the old brain-twister about...

From the White House to Kerry campaign headquarters to TV news rooms to radio stations and newspapers across the country to the blogosphere, the "inside" word Tuesday afternoon and early evening was that President Bush was in big trouble. That's because we were all relying on exit polls. Who knew the damn things were going to be a dependable as Ashlee Simpson with acid reflux and no voice track? ***** George Bush won. The president garnered more than 3.5 million more votes than the challenger, and he carried the Electoral College fair and square. As you might recall, some two...

On election day,while the market was way up, before the exit polls were questioned by Fox,someone was shorting the Market.Wonder who?

I hear all of DUmpsterland crying and whining about voter fraud. The number one reason they believe this is because of the deviation of the actual results from exit polls (nevermind the fact they were yelling how inaccurate exit polls were all Tuesday morning!). http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html FINAL Ohio 2004 Exit Polls (courtesy CNN, that far-right wing kook cable network /sarcasm off). 2,020 Ohio Respondents Gender: 53% Female - Bush 50%, Kerry 50% 47% Male - Bush 52%, Kerry 47% Let's see.. Female vote went 50-50, Male vote went to Bush by 5%.. That equals........... Kerry wins!! Diebold strikes! "Wait Wait.. They...

Rove says early exit polls made him 'ill' Associated Press Last update: November 08, 2004 WASHINGTON -- Reflecting on how he delivered President Bush his second term, White House political adviser Karl Rove admitted Sunday that John Kerry's vote for, then against, funding in Iraq and Afghanistan was the "gift that kept on giving." The deft strategy of Rove, whom Bush calls the architect of his re-election campaign, is credited with helping move the nation from the 49 percent to 49 percent stalemate of the 2000 election to a 51 percent to 48 percent split in the Republicans' favor. "The...

There's a lot of talk of vote-machine fraud in Dem circles, i.e., that electronic voting machines gave Bush an advantage by creating votes. "Proof" of this is the discrepency with exit polls, which showed Kerry much stronger in states with e-voting machines. I have no idea whether there is any evidence of this. BUT, let's assume this discrepency exists. Whose to say that it isn't the exit polling that was skewed to produce a favorable result for Kerry, and that it was skewed exactly in states, i.e., states with e-voting machines, that would allow the Dem's conspiracy theory to develop?...

We all know the exit polls were dead wrong. They had Kerry winning Virginia, South Carolina and North Carolina not to mention every swing state. Aren't all these statistics about X% of voters claiming morality was their main priority or Y% of Catholics voted for Kerry, etc just the internals of the these same atrociously wrong exit polls? Why are we still seeing these results quoted as authoritative? (rhetorical) You can take every article by some pundit who's told us who we are based on those internals and deposit it in the nearest parakeet cage. Because these exit polls were...