Posted on 11/19/2004 1:41:51 PM PST by 4.1O dana super trac pak
It instantly became part of American political legend: President Bush received a hefty 44% of the Hispanic vote on Nov. 2, up sharply from the 35% he garnered in 2000. Pundits credited the Latino surge to the GOP -- as measured by two sets of media exit polls -- for Bush's wins in such battleground states as Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. Sounds impressive. But is it true?
Some Democratic and Hispanic activist say it's not. The William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, conducted its own exit polls, which found Bush winning 34% of the Latino vote - no better than four years ago. "Bad science is being used to misrepresent a community," says Robert Aguinaga, research director of the institute. Republicans who derided the media polls on Election Day - when they showed Democrat John Kerry running ahead of Bush - are now embracing them.
In fact, none of the polls appear to get the Latino vote right. BusinessWeek examined real election results from 62 jurisdictions in 13 states - mostly places where Hispanics made up 75% to 95% of the population. The bottom line: Bush improved on his 2000 performance in 85% of these heavily Hispanic areas, undercutting Dems' claims that he didn't make inroads. But his gains averaged just three percentage points - far less than the nine-point gain Republicans have been trumpeting.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessweek.com ...
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Yes, and according to exit polls, John Kerry is now president.
If Bush hadn't upped his Hispanic share considerably, he likely wouldn't have won by 3.5 million votes, and raised his overall votes by 8 or 9 million.
The fact is that Hispanic votes are truly non-monolithic, unlike African-American votes which are uniform and will remain so for at least another 4 year election cycle. Hispanic votes are growing much faster than black votes. Democrats know, in the backrooms, that they can't dip much further into the black vote well than they already are.
I think Rove et al. are spinning a mythical uptick in Hispanic votes for Bush to win over Republicans to the administration's open borders policy. I don't believe the evidence is there. But even if it were, even if Bush got 100% of the Hispanic vote, I would favor sharply reduced immigration.
The article says that Hispanics in more rural areas went much more favorably to Bush than in urban areas. This follows the national trend everywhere.
I'd be curious to see how Bush did among rural blacks as opposed to urban blacks.
The left trying to reassure themselves that they aren't loosing it.
The only monolithic voting groups in the last election were blacks, homosexuals, muslims and dare I say it...jews.
All other groups comprising 80% of the total vote went overwhelmingly for W.
I don't get it... Why is anyone putting any faith in these Exit Polls which were shown to be totally flawed?
The group is called nonpartisan. But that does not mean that it really is nonpartisan. I might trust the figures more if I knew something about this think tank.
It's not so much rural vs urban as it is suburban vs urban.
The suburban blacks that have escaped the shackles of democRAT enslavement tend to vote more with their brains than their emotions.
Blacks as a whole tend to align themselves with conservative principles but it's a culture shock for them to transfer those beliefs once they enter the voting booth. As a result, they vote RAT.
Where's that map again of US Red counties vs. Blue counties for 2004? Those counties all along the US southern border with Mexico, and chunks of New Mexico/Arizona?
I'd like to see BusinessWeeks research broken down by population of the counties. Chicagos 22nd Ward might have more population than 3 or 4 rural Illinois counties counties combined.
That's not so. Even if we use the exit polls showing Bush winning 44% of the Hispanic vote, the bigger deal as far as the national, popular vote is concerned was Bush's upping his share of the white vote from 54% in 2000 (poor for a winning Republican) to 58% this year. A four point gain among nearly 80% of the electorate yields more votes than a ten point gain among less than 10% of the electorate.
Though of course if the exit polling data concerning the 44% mark is wrong, then it also casts doubt on its findings with white voters. Having said that however, I find it easier to believe Bush gained 4 points with whites than he did 10 with latinos.
The fact of the matter is that Bush's best chance to pass his immigration reform "package" is to show that he is substantially increasing his percentage of the Mexican vote
Polls in my household reveal a 100% vote of the Hispanic population voted for Bush.
This is 80 point increase from the 2000 election.
Yes, English is my first language, though from that post you wouldn't know it.
Good job there Betis. :-)
AIT, search by using the keyword 'MAP', a bunch of threads with the map came up.
I noticed that the border counties were very blue.
Does it occur to Pres.Bush and his advisors that all LEGAL immigrants - and especially Hispanics RESENT illegals.
Considering the paperwork and regulations that legal residents have to comply with, it seems wholly unfair that immigrants who break the law are not punished or deported.
The TEMPORARY work visa is a good beginning, but it should be supported with a thorough background check and workers' payment into a fund that pays for passage back to country of origin if the TEMPORARY worker gets into financial or legal trouble.
Yes, the argument will be deflated completely, once a suitcase nuke is set off in some population center...and a few weeks later we get the word that the islamofascist culprit(s) came through out open, pathetic southern border, as any other illegal alien freely does these days, perhaps even with Central American gang complicity and support within our own borders. It may take that I'm afraid to close the border fully and have zero tolerance.
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