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Facts don’t care about your fear-mongering. In an outcome completely foreseeable after 50+ years of failed climate predictions, it seems that a whopping 36 climate models overestimated warming in America’s Corn Belt — by a lot. Longtime climate truth-teller Steve Milloy tweeted out evidence from Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D., a climatologist, author, and former NASA scientist. Spencer and Milloy both shared a chart showing how wildly inaccurate climate models were compared to the actual measured temperature trend from 1973 to 2022.Climate model clown show:All 36 climate models used to advance the climate agenda in the US way overestimate observed warming...

Climatologists and statisticians of Ca' Foscari University of Venice have elaborated a method to accurately estimate systematic errors affecting decadal climate predictions. The proposed method promises great progress toward the achievement of reliable near-term climate forecasts. The numerical models currently employed in decadal climate prediction systems are affected by severe systematic errors (or biases) in key regions of the ocean and atmosphere, due to their imperfect representation of fundamental physical processes. Because of these biases, the simulated mean state of the climate can be significantly different from the observed one over large regions. As in the case of weather forecast,...

A new statistical tool for modeling large climate and environmental datasets that has broad applications—from weather forecasting to flood warning and irrigation management—has been developed by researchers at KAUST. Ying Sun and her PhD student Huang Huang developed a new method that uses a hierarchical low-rank approximation scheme to resolve the computational burden, providing an efficient tool for fitting Gaussian process models to datasets that contain large quantities of climate and environmental measurements. The model was applied to a spatial dataset of two million soil-moisture measurements from the Mississippi River basin in the United States. They were able to fit...

For a 2-billion-year-long span, ending about 715 million years ago, Venus was likely a much more pleasant spot that it is today. To observe Venus now is to witness a dry and toxic hellscape, where the planet heats up to a scorching 864 degrees Fahrenheit. A super-strong electric wind is believed to suck the smallest traces of water into space. With apologies to Ian Malcolm, life as we know it could not find a way. But travel back in time a few billion years or so. Ancient Venus, according to a new computer model from NASA, would have been prime...

A group of scientists recently put out a new study confirming the 15-year "hiatus" in global warming. That study made headlines, but what went largely unnoticed was a major admission made by the paper’s authors: the climate models were wrong. "There is this mismatch between what the climate models are producing and what the observations are showing," John Fyfe, Canadian climate modeler and lead author of the new paper, told Nature. "We can't ignore it." "Reality has deviated from our expectations - it is perfectly normal to try and understand this difference," Ed Hawkins, co-author of the study and United...

.........."Everyone by now is familiar with the 'pause' or 'slowdown' in the rate of global warming that has taken place over the past 20 years of so, but few realize is that the observed warming rate has been beneath the model mean expectation for periods extending back to the mid-20th century-60+ years," Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger, climate scientists at the libertarian Cato Institute, write in a working paper released in December. Michaels and Knappenberger compared observed global surface temperature warming rates since 1950 to what was predicted by 108 climate models used by government climate scientists to predict how...

* Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records * It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC * Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming * These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report Global warming hasn't happened as fast as expected, according to a new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records. The research claims that natural variability in surface temperatures over the course of a decade can account for increases and dips in warming rates. But it adds that these so-called 'climate...

The German Ministry of Environment has falsified the conclusions of a UN climate change report in the German-language version released last week, in an attempt to hide the fact that the country's 'green policies' are useless. The ministry’s four-page summary of the report contains outright contradictions and falsifications of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendations, apparently made to hide UN criticism of the way the German government has turned emissions-trading into a cash cow for futile renewable energy projects. Die Welt said on Sunday that parts of the thousands of pages-long English-language report which the ministry found embarrassing were...

One of these things, is not like the others. Let’s see, we knew back in September, 2013; that the 222 year old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a lousy winter. Some where, some place, a medicine man reading chicken entrails probably got it right, as well. And the AGW folks? Well, where are their models? Show us the “polar vortex” in your models and while you are at it, tell us what next winter will be like so we know if you have a clue as to what you are talking about. However, also let us know if your models showed “alarming...

At the request of the authors, this was converted from a poster displayed at the AGU Science Policy Conference, Washington, June 24-26. – AnthonyBy Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute, Washington DCINTRODUCTIONAssessing the consistency between real-world observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem but one that is essential prior to making policy decisions which depend largely on such projections. National and international assessments often mischaracterize the level of consistency between observations and projections. Unfortunately, policymakers are often unaware of this situation, which leaves them vulnerable to developing policies that...

I was aware of this story yesterday, but I didn’t like the original plot, (see at the end of this post) since use of straight line linear trends doesn’t accurately reflect the reality of the observation data. While it is often hard to find any reality in climate models, linear trend lines mask the underlying variance. Today, Dr. Spencer has produced a graph that I feel is representative and very well worth sharing, because it does in fact convey an EPIC FAIL speaking directly to the accuracy of an ensemble of climate models. – AnthonyDr. Roy Spencer writes: In response...

Researcher calls the conclusions of the UN's IPCC incomplete and flawed Even the best climate models are affected by uncertainty in how much aerosols contribute to global warming. That uncertainty could mean that emissions cuts could reduce warming -- or that it might continue to increase for a while, despite cuts. Those are the conclusions of a recent review published by a University of Washington grad student. (Source: NOAA)***************************Kyle Armour, a doctoral student in physics at the University of Washington is boldly challenging that certain assertions of the Nobel Prize-winning International Panel on Climate Change, in their current state, may be flawed.  He argues...

One of the biggest, if not the biggest issues of climate science skepticism is the criticism of over-reliance on computer model projections to suggest future outcomes. In this paper, climate models were hindcast tested against actual surface observations, and found to be seriously lacking. Just have a look at Figure 12 (mean temperature -vs- models for the USA)  from the paper, shown below: Fig. 12. Various temperature time series spatially integrated over the USA (mean annual), at annual and 30-year scales. Click image for the complete graph The graph above shows temperature in the blue lines, and model runs in...

It transpires that thousands of flights were cancelled simply because of a mathematical model A glimmer of light has pierced the gloom, both literal and metaphorical, caused by the cloud of ash spewed skywards by the Icelandic volcano. From this morning, planes will be able to fly in the airspace above northern Britain. Since last Thursday, the entire country and much of northern Europe has been closed to air traffic, with potentially disastrous financial consequences for the airlines and causing severe inconvenience to millions stranded around the world. When this extraordinary event began, it was greeted as an example of...

Two problems arise when comparing a model’s integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast to the observations themselves. Verifying the model with an analysis, we compare two equally sized “grids”; verifying the model with observations, we compare a tiny number of model grid points with reality. Now, some kinds of screwiness in the model are also endemic in the analysis: the model and analysis are, after all, built from the same materials. Some screwiness, therefore, will remain hidden, undetectable in the model-analysis verification. However, the model-analysis verification can reveal certain...

Nearly all---the exceptions to this are rarer than sober Paul Krugman columns---statistical models, and many physical models, are checked against the data that was used to fit, or create them. Since it is an elementary theorem that any model may be made to fit perfectly---not just closely, perfectly---to any set of historical data, to claim that your model is good because it fits old data well is a hollow boast.

The problem with existing climate models:The problem with existing climate models:Guest post by Stephen WildeFrom ETH, Zurich - Climate model (Ruddiman, 2001) Even those who aver that man’s activity affects climate on a global scale rather than just locally or regionally appear to accept that the existing climate models are incomplete. It is a given that the existing models do not fully incorporate data or mechanisms involving cloudiness or global albedo (reflectivity) variations or variations in the speed of the hydrological cycle and that the variability in the temperatures of the ocean surfaces and the overall ocean energy content are...

What is, and isn't, settled about climate science? Guests Hadi Dowlatabadi is Canada research chair and professor in Applied Mathematics and Global Change at the University of British Columbia. Richard Lindzen is a professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For more information see Professor Lindzen's bio. Producers Wodek Szemberg is a senior producer on The Agenda with Steve Paikin. He is also producer of Big Ideas and the Best Lecturer Competition. Follow Wodek on Twitter.

As an engineer schooled in the slide rule era, I have been trying to educate myself about the nature of climate models. The details of the specific construction of the models have been hard to find. I am old enough that I have been through the evolution of computers and calculators from those earliest HP scientific models that cost $400 in 1972 dollars. Computers are not electronic brains, they are just very fast electronic slide rules and adding machines. So I want to figure out the thinking process behind the models. As a summer intern in the thermodynamics department at...

Many policymakers have traditionally seen climate models as irrelevant, but Gavin Schmidt argues that recent advances are making such models an essential tool in informing policy choices Wrong but useful A quick tour of the Internet reveals some very strong feelings on the subject of climate models. Unsurprisingly, on climate contrarian sites, such models are described in all sorts of unflattering terms and dismissed out of hand as fundamentally useless. However, in more rational forums, and sometimes even among scientists themselves, one occasionally comes across a basic ignorance of whether climate models are any good, and, even more importantly, what...