Posted on 10/13/2017 7:07:13 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
Climatologists and statisticians of Ca' Foscari University of Venice have elaborated a method to accurately estimate systematic errors affecting decadal climate predictions. The proposed method promises great progress toward the achievement of reliable near-term climate forecasts.
The numerical models currently employed in decadal climate prediction systems are affected by severe systematic errors (or biases) in key regions of the ocean and atmosphere, due to their imperfect representation of fundamental physical processes. Because of these biases, the simulated mean state of the climate can be significantly different from the observed one over large regions.
As in the case of weather forecast, these models are initialized – they assimilate observed data so that the simulated climate evolution is as close as possible to the observed one. To predict the future evolution, the model is "set free". In the first phase the model is thus "forced" to follow the observations; then, from the moment it is "set free" it progressively departs from the observed mean climate and relaxes toward its own, specific mean climate. As if these were two separate parallel worlds: observed and simulated realities. By the time the model evolves freely without observational constraints, the model drifts, with a progressive "transition" from the first to the second (biased) reality.
(Excerpt) Read more at phys.org ...
Simply using the solar cycle yields far more accurate results, but that doesn’t give the desired result.
Scientism translation:
Got caught with a intentionally biased model using faked numbers so here’s why common sense doesn’t mate up with the models.
If Dr. Watson were writing this up, it would be “The Case of the Tangled Web”.
that’s what it sounded like to me. It’s hard to make actual observations on such a large area, so we’ll make a few observations and let a model calculate the rest, except the model is incorrectly crafted and deviates in the same direction from the observations every time. Need more observations, and a better model.
Their predictions will have to start coming true if they want me in their church.
Seems to me to be just another way to fudge the real (raw) data.
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a giant nuclear furnace that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the sun’s planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?
i love this story.
Free translation into English:
The computer predictive models of the last 50 years, fueling 'global cooling'/'global warming'/'CO2 armageddon' hysteria, aren't worth a s**T!!!
Not even a tiny surprise for most of us here on Free Republic.
In the old days didn't they sacrifice virgins?
True. Seems like today they rape them.
Bkmk
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.