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Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum shoots to the top among Ohio likely Republican primary voters with 36 percent, followed by 29 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to a Quinnpiac University poll released today. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich runs third with 20 percent, while Texas U.S. Rep Ron Paul gets 9 percent. Three weeks before the March 6 primary, 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they may change their mind. The first survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered Republicans.

Here are the results of three recent polls of the GOP presidential contenders: -------------PPP (2/9-10)--FOX NEWS(2/8-9)---GDTP*(TODAY) SANTORUM-------38------------30-------------27 ROMNEY---------25------------30-------------34 GINGRICH-------17------------16-------------16 PAUL-----------13------------15-------------8 * 5 DAY GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL On January 26, 2012 except for a spike in his "horse race" numbers two weeks before Christmas to 37% of the GOP primary vote nationally with the Gallup daily tracking poll, Newt Gingrich hit his high-water mark of 32% after winning the South Carolina primary on January 21. That was to be expected. But what was NOT expected is that the former Speaker of the House would then proceed to drop from 32%...

Georgia judge today ruled that President Obama can be on the ballot in November. Possible result: Mitt Romney loses Georgia (GA) and its 16 electoral votes and thus loses a close election to Obama despite winning back Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida and 1 EV in Nebraska. Why? Unlike every state with high evangelical populations where Obama lost to McCain by double digits, Obama only lost GA by 5.2%. In other words, Romney could still win all the other states with "high evangelical populations" with lower evangelical turnout because he is so far ahead in party ID and...

Now that the dust has settled on the 2010 midterm elections, it's slowly becoming clear just how monumental the results really are. We saw an extreme left-wing agenda suffer a crushing defeat. At the ballot box, voters took Obamacare and the stimulus and wrapped them right around the necks of those same House members and senators who had arrogantly dismissed the concerns voiced in countless town halls and Tea Party rallies up and down the country. Voters sent commonsense conservatives a clear mandate to hold the line against the Obama agenda? Does that mean Republican candidates can look forward with...

The Cold Hard Football Facts are not just drinking the Tim Tebow Kool-Aid. We're mixing up big batches, grabbing innocent football fans off the street and pumping tubes of it down their throats--much like French farmers force-feed geese to fatten the bird's liver and make tasty foie gras. OK, that's overstating the case a bit. Foie gras is not so tasty. But the Cold, Hard Football Fact of the matter is that there is a fundamentally solid statistical foundation beneath the success of the Denver Broncos with Tebow at quarterback. Put most simply, Tebow consistently outplays the other team's quarterback,...

If you follow the NFL, you know that Tim Tebow is now the starting quarterback (QB) for the Denver Broncos and even if you are geographically challenged you probably also know that Denver is in the state of Colorado. And you also probably know Tim Tebow is extremely charismatic and religious and pro-life and leads a "squeaky-clean life and is very outspoken about his personal and religious beliefs. And you probably also know he is as hated and despised by sports pundits as Sarah Palin is hated and despised by political pundits. Well here is where the NFL intersects with...

Current results of first choice: PALIN-----------47.5% CAIN------------21.6% PAUL------------14.9% PERRY-----------8.1% ROMNEY----------2.7% GINGRICH--------2.1% HUNTSMAN--------1.0% CHRISTIE--------0.6% JOHNSON---------0.6% BACHMANN--------0.5% ROEMER----------0.1% GIULIANI--------0.0%

This Rasmussen poll result was originally released a full year ago on Sept. 20, 2010 and I believe is perhaps the most important poll conducted this election cycle. For the record this poll was conducted between Sept 18-19, 2010 of 1000 LIKELY VOTERS. This poll is equivalent to the movie Citizen Kane. Legend has it the movie's vast array of critics and many defenders of William Randolph Hearst tried their level best to obtain all the copies of the movie before it was released to theaters in 1941 and obliterate it from the public memory forever. In the same mode...

The $64,000 question: Was the recent Marist-McClatchey poll that showed Sarah Palin within 5 points in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama a fluke? Here are 10 reasons why I do NOT believe this particular result or the overall poll was a fluke: 1)The piece by pollinsider.com explaining in his usual analytical fashion why the result "is no fluke" http://pollinsider.com/2011/09/21/palin-47-obama-47-turnaround-why-marist-poll-is-no-fluke/ Besides his discussion of how the Democrats were oversampled by 8 points, he also points out that of the 6% undecided in the 49/44 head to head result in Obama's favor, 67% are independents, 20% are Republicans and only 13%...

Imagine you are Sarah Palin sitting in her living room today. You know that Mitt Romney needs "a parting of the Red Sea miracle" to win the GOP nomination, you already have known for several months that all the second-tier candidates, including Michele Bachmann, are toast, so you are faced with only 3 scenarios that you need concern yourself about as you move forward and that could derail your bid for the GOP nomination: a)Rick Perry b)The 11th hour entry into the race of Jeb Bush c) Barack Obama may not run for re-election Of course she knows all the...

First, here are the results of the CBS/NYT poll conducted between Sept 10-15 of GOP primary voters (after both debates)and released yesterday. Sarah Palin was NOT a part of the mix, but 3% of the respondents "volunteered" her name without being prompted by the pollster to do so. In addition Huckabee received 2%, McCain 1% and Christie 1% of the vote in the same manner. Again do not be mislead by Palin receiving 3% of the vote. She was NOT included as an option. Only announced Presidential contenders were part of the mix. So here are the results: PERRY 23%...

One of the most important articles ever written about Sarah Palin was by Paul Goldman, a Democratic political strategist and former chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party,in September 2010, about 6 weeks before the 2010 midterm election. This article was originally posted at FR and at the WAPO: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2590825/posts http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR20100901606348.html In the article Goldman claims there is a good possibility that Sarah Palin has saved the Republican party (from extinction)by not going the third party route (via the Tea party) and in Goldman's words "to allow Republican anger to boil, yet not boil over." And then Goldman reflects on the...

On Monday and early Tuesday morning five heady polls were released: 1) The CNN poll of GOP contenders with a complete demographic breakdown. 2) The Gallup weekly summary (GWS)of last week's daily tracking poll results with an accompanying demographic breakdown. 3) The weekly Daily Kos poll (conducted by Public Policy Polling)showing a complete demographic breakdown, Obama's approval/disapproval and how Obama would do in the 2012 election if the election were held today. 4)Rasmussen's weekly healthcare poll of the repeal of Obamacare showing 57% want it repealed and only 37% want it kept the way it is and the Rasmussen generic...

There is a familiar aphorism among Palinistas and right-wing blogs that Sarah Palin plays chess while everyone else plays checkers. I agree. What I would like to do is illustrate how Sarah Palin is playing chess so deftly, what moves she plans to make once she enters the presidential race (the political lay of the land) and at the same time explain the deficiencies in the chess game prowess and execution of Mitt Romney and how these deficiencies may lead to his eventual downfall in the GOP primaries. In interest of full disclosure I am one of the worst chess...

In June 2011 Rasmussen published a poll showing in a head to head matchup with Barack Obama, Sarah Palin would best him among INDEPENDENTS 40% to 38%. This week in the Gallup weekly summary, Gallup pegged Obama's approval with INDEPENDENTS at 35%. Now here is living proof that the Messiah can turn water into wine. Public policy polling yesterday released a poll yesterday showing Obama beating Palin among INDEPENDENTS 59% to 30%. Now you all all adults. Do you see any inconsistency here?

Consider this a companion piece on my discussion of the fallacy or false narrative of the Goldwater blowout perpetuated by Rasmussen and other pollsters in respect to the possibility of President Obama beating Sarah Palin in a political landslide in 2012. First let me bring a a historical note. "Push polls" are designed to act as propaganda tools, nothing more and nothing less. Imho, we must first acknowledge that the far-fetched results published by pollsters about Sarah Palin in relation to how she would fare against President Obama in a general election are similar to the propaganda tactics leveled at...

I have often brought up the concept of "the Goldwater blowout" to describe the false narrative circulated by the anti-Palin forces to convince GOP primary voters not to vote for Sarah Palin, for fear of President Obama winning by a landslide margin similar to Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) beating Barry Goldwater in the 1964 Presidential election, if Sarah Palin becomes the GOP nominee. The Rasmussen poll released on August 22, 2011 follows the same pattern by claiming if the 2012 general election were held today, Obama would "kick Palin's butt and defeat her by 17 points in the popular vote (50%...

According to the Austin-American Statesman's Politifact Texas Perry-O-Meter Rick Perry at least twice promised he would not not run for President in 2012: a)He told a questioner at a January 2010 debate that he would "absolutely" serve out his full new 4-year term. b)In December 2010 Perry told Reuters, "I don't want to be president of the United States. I'm not going to run for the presidency of the United States." And from EFC polfacts: a) In a Nov 8, 2010 interview with Newsweek (after he had been re-elected): "Not going to run for president. Not going to be a...

Marist-McClatchey came out with a head to head poll today showing President Obama beating Sarah Palin by 21 points (56-35). Here is basically how MM arrived those numbers: ------------ OBAMA PALIN OVERALL 56(56) 35(30) DEMS 86(86) 11(10) GOP 23 (22) 60(66) INDEPEND 48(52) 42(28) MODERATE 63(63) 26(19) CONSERV 29(36) 64(49) MEN 46(54) 45(28) WOMEN 64(58) 28(33) Brackets mid-June 2011 Analysis and conclusions: 1)To prove any poll of this type is bogus you need to start with the President's recent overall job approval numbers: Gallup daily tracking poll today: 41% Rasmussen daily tracking poll today: 43% CNN (released yesterday) 44% Reuters/Ipsos...

Your Preferred Presidential candidate: Palin 40% (2309 votes) Perry 33% (1888) Bachmann 8% (442) Romney 5% (293) Pawlenty 4% (224) Cain 4% (211) Paul 3% (172) Bolton 1% (75) McCotter 1% (39) Santorum 1% (36) Johnson 1% (32) Giuliani 0% (26) Huntsman 0% (22) Gingrich 0% (7) 5776 votes cast