Posted on 09/17/2011 2:28:31 PM PDT by techno
Imagine you are Sarah Palin sitting in her living room today. You know that Mitt Romney needs "a parting of the Red Sea miracle" to win the GOP nomination, you already have known for several months that all the second-tier candidates, including Michele Bachmann, are toast, so you are faced with only 3 scenarios that you need concern yourself about as you move forward and that could derail your bid for the GOP nomination:
a)Rick Perry
b)The 11th hour entry into the race of Jeb Bush
c) Barack Obama may not run for re-election
Of course she knows all the filing deadlines for each state and fully understands the bureaucratic morass and jungle she and her team will need to navigate to become an official presidential candidate.
She fully comprehends the anti-Palin forces on both the Left and the Right will do everything in their power to stop her from announcing a presidential bid and after she enters the race to resort to sabotage to stop her from winning the nomination.
She understands she will in all likelihood be outraised by Team Perry. But that has been the hallmark of all her campaigns.
And there is now a rumor afloat via firelight at conservatives4palin.com that the GOP leadership is prepared to ambush Sarah Palin once she enters the race by moving up the early primaries/caucuses significantly with a Iowa caucus date sometime in Dec 2011, to prevent Palin from having enough time to win enough hearts and minds in the early primary states and to set up an organization after she enters the race.
And she realizes that she is now in the ascendancy in the polls while both Perry and Romney are now both on the decline despite not being a candidate yet.
And finally she is fully cognizant of President Obama's falling poll numbers and speculation he may not run for a second term.
Now your folks are all intelligent adults--given all this information and data and taking into mind the various political considerations, what would you do or at least consider doing?
Here is what I would do if I were Sarah Palin (I am not privy to any inside info):
a) Wait another week or two to see if there are more stirrings or rumors out of the Jeb Bush camp or GOP establishment. She knows the GOP establishment will NOT go quietly into the night and in acquiescent fashion accept defeat due to Romney's poll numbers now tanking. If it has a plan, it must act quickly and decisively. One thing that hardly anybody brings up is that the window may be closing for Palin to get into the race but by the same token it is also closing on any other new potential entrant as well. Jeb has to act quickly; she knows that. And that is as good a reason to delay her entry into the race as any.
b)Palin knows Perry has damaged himself in his first to debates (see CBS/NYT poll released yesterday)and eventually his overall support would begin to fall off. She is politically savvy and understands the nature of vetting and what can result from it. Like everyone she has an opinion on far Perry's poll numbers will sink or whether he will bottom out and start to rebound but she is certain the longer she stays out of the race the more Perry will be exposed, especially to Tea party supporters, who she needs to move over to her tent en masse to win the nomination.
"When your opponent is falling, don't get in the way."
And for the time being Sarah Palin won't.
c)The McGinniss/Levi Johnston books are more of a nuisance than anything but why subject yourself to the political spotlight when you know all the reporters want to ask you is whether you slept with Glenn Rice. Let it pass (books released next week) and besides neither Romney nor Perry appear that they are going to become any more viable in a period of a week or 10 days.
d)And by waiting as late as possible to enter the race you prevent the GOP leadership from changing the primary docket in such a dramatic way because of the bureaucratic procedures involved in moving up so many races. And if the GOP leadership does it before she enters the race, the grassroots will be complaining and screaming about interrupting Christmas and having the unmitigated gall to changing the rules in midstream and as a consequence donations could dry up and the GOP leadership could take a major hit to its credibility. And Palin knows this: The GOP leadership will not make its move until she enters the race.
e) And Palin like everyone else is probably wondering if Obama would pull a Truman (1952) or a LBJ (1968) and not seek re-election.
She is also fully aware that no prominent Democrat would challenge and then deny "the first Black President" a second term in office without alienating the massive Black vote for the Democrats.
I think Palin is pretty confident that the egomaniac, Narcissist, Soros puppet will be running but I think she doesn't want to be blindsided by Obama not running because of health reasons.
f) And finally most people focus on the narrow window for Palin to compete in the GOP primaries if she enters late, but what the focus should be on is that it gives her enemies in the media and the permanent political class less opportunity to beat her up as well before the first vote is taken in Iowa.
And lest you forget, Sarah Palin has The Undefeated as her ace in the hole. If they attack her on her record as governor of Alaska she will say, "Watch The Undefeated." And the longer she waits, the more people will have seen the movie, both in theaters and in private homes.
In conclusion, Sarah Palin does NOT need to enter the presidential race now unless she feels she indeed made a promise to get in by the end of September. For those who fear PROSELYTIZATION, as I once did, she is now in the ascendancy in the polls.
And as to her strategy, has Sarah Palin decided not to focus on making herself MORE ACCEPTABLE to the GOP primary voters, but instead focused on making both Perry and Romney LESS ACCEPTABLE to them, thereby narrowing the gap by bringing them down to her level (increasing their negatives) rather than striving to climb up to their level of acceptance (according to the pollsters). If that is indeed her strategy, it appears to be working so far.
Either he's fibbin' or he's telling the truth. He's an author. It's what he does.
AND IT'S CALLED PART OF THE GAME OF "POLITICS".
Just ask Thomas Jefferson...
For those suffering from anxiety, it will be soon enough.
foget about jeb bush, aint happenin’. Sarah starts/sept 24/oct 1st...gets ready...Go Sarah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Run Sarah Run.
At this point, I’d like to see Palin get in not just to win, but to take a dagger to the heart of the GOP establishment. I want blood all over the walls, figuratively speaking, To take on the whole political class and their evil minions in the media. She’s really the only one who could do this. They’ve done all they can do to destroy her already, save for killing her outright.
Jeb Bush! Yes,,, she should wait to see if he wants it. After all,,, most Americans are clamoring for another Bush. And a Mexican born first lady too! Sheer lunacy,,,, I’m done with the Bush clan, 100%.
Gee, and I was thinking all the time that the 2012 election was ABOUT DEFEATING the leftists/marxists in DC. How could I have been so wrong these almost three years. I really NEVER knew it was all about getting Sarah Palin elected. Honestly.
BTW, I've been thinking: WHY was Palin going around the east coast in a painted bus if she wasn't going to run for president? If she wanted to take her family on that trip, they could have done it in an unmarked motor home. Why was she trying to draw attention?
People who claim to be Palin supporters appear to become more and more delusional. At this point I am starting to have serious doubts that they really believe that Palin will enter the race. Nobody can be this naive.
IMO, it’s more likely that these are people who just want to stop Perry’s momentum and con the gullible into continuing to “wait for Palin” to help Romney.
This kind of tactic is not unheard of.
Of course some of them probably really are that gullible, but not all of them who claim to be “faithfully waiting for Palin”.
The excuses they are using for her not having declared by now are more and more incredible.
There is NO real reason for her not to have declared by now, IF she intended to run. The ONLY reason for her to keep people guessing, is to maintain her fame. Maybe she will NEVER actually announce she is not running and if people can’t figure it out, it’s their problem.
Big difference...AFTER of course. It’s called smart “politics”.
Exactly. The GOP establishment is at least as big an enemy of the country as the liberals and the islamofascists.
Really deep thought there, ace.
So did you think another McCain type Rino would be the one to do it?
a) Wait another week or two to see if there are more stirrings or rumors out of the Jeb Bush camp or GOP establishment.
I have a better chance of being elected in a General than does another Bush.
b)Palin knows Perry has damaged himself in his first to debates (see CBS/NYT poll released yesterday)and eventually his overall support would begin to fall off. She is politically savvy and understands the nature of vetting and what can result from it.
He’s toast. And should be.
c)The McGinniss/Levi Johnston books ...
Next....
d)And by waiting as late as possible to enter the race you prevent the GOP leadership from changing the primary docket in such a dramatic way because of the bureaucratic procedures involved in moving up so many races.”
Time for waiting is up within two weeks. After that, too late. This is no longer a “normal cycle” that she can delay in.
e) And Palin like everyone else is probably wondering if Obama would pull a Truman (1952) or a LBJ (1968) and not seek re-election.”
Not going to happen. He’s on a mission from Allah. (Please report to www.attackwatchmywhiteirishass.com)
f) And finally most people focus on the narrow window for Palin to compete in the GOP primaries if she enters late, but what the focus should be on is that it gives her enemies in the media and the permanent political class less opportunity to beat her up as well before the first vote is taken in Iowa.
See answer to d. above.
And lest you forget, Sarah Palin has The Undefeated as her ace in the hole. If they attack her on her record as governor of Alaska she will say, “Watch The Undefeated.”
No impact. None.
That’s about it from here. Oh. One more thing. If we get stuck with Mittens, we might as well call in the dogs, piss on the fire and head home. There will officially be no more two party system. The socialists will have won either way.
The Grand OLd Potty needs to be flushed. New blood.
Your touching concern is duly noted....
No, I’m not a McCain fan. In case you have forgotten, in 2010 it was our beloved Sarah who endorsed the demented SOB. Otherwise, we would now not have an idiot senator to deal with for five more years. I get your general point — but your example was, well, INcondsiderate.
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