Posted on 02/12/2012 6:28:12 PM PST by techno
Here are the results of three recent polls of the GOP presidential contenders:
-------------PPP (2/9-10)--FOX NEWS(2/8-9)---GDTP*(TODAY)
SANTORUM-------38------------30-------------27
ROMNEY---------25------------30-------------34
GINGRICH-------17------------16-------------16
PAUL-----------13------------15-------------8
* 5 DAY GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL
On January 26, 2012 except for a spike in his "horse race" numbers two weeks before Christmas to 37% of the GOP primary vote nationally with the Gallup daily tracking poll, Newt Gingrich hit his high-water mark of 32% after winning the South Carolina primary on January 21. That was to be expected. But what was NOT expected is that the former Speaker of the House would then proceed to drop from 32% to 16% in the horse race, all in a matter of the last 17 days.
Meanwhile on Jan. 26 Rick Santorum sat at 13% in the horse race and now has doubled his support to 27%.
On Jan. 26 Mitt Romney was sitting at 26% and now stands at 34%.
On Jan. 26 Ron Paul found himself at 13% and today sits at 9%.
Conclusion:
I have no doubt in my mind if these poll numbers stand this way going forward, you would have witnessed perhaps one of the colossal political blunders in GOP primary politics or politics in general anywhere.
My conclusion is based on the numbers and events of the recent past. Nothing is made up or exaggerated.
On January 21, 2012 Newt Gingrich won the SC primary. He was sitting in the mid 20's at the time with the GDTP and so was Mitt Romney. They were in a virtual tie.
Mitt Romney had won the NH primary but after losing SC, felt immense political pressure to win Florida, with the understanding that the Sunshine state was a must-win. In retrospect I don't know how true that would have been.
Using a football analogy, if you are behind two touchdowns with 5 minutes left to go in the game what do you do? You go to the air with a sense of urgency or desperation. You unleash everything you have. You don't save anything because you feel there is no tomorrow.
I believe this is how Mitt Romney felt in the week leading up the Florida primary on January 31. So in political terms he also went extensively to the air and flooded the airwaves with a multitude of attack ads attacking Newt Gingrich on a number of issues in a most vicious, mean-spirited manner. It has been referred to by pundits as carpet bombing which is defined as an extensive and systematic bombing intended to devastate a large target.
As it turned out Romney won Florida comfortably by 15 points. What was he worried about? But folks this is what bullies do when they are capable of doing it (vast advantage in money); they beat up on someone who is perceived to be a threat but at a disadvantage to wipe out the competition and to prove to the world they are the king of the hill.
Now folks, this is where it becomes interesting. Like John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney could have conceivably ridden into the sunset and laid claim to the nomination. Objectively he had no reason to believe Newt Gingrich would recover from such a mortal wound. Every poll showed a dramatic drop-off in support for Newt since the start of the carpet bombing.
Here is the dynamic which I think unfolded after the SC primary. Romney and Gingrich were like two warring crime families who believed if one could knock the other out of the game, the surviving gang would gain complete control of the city and rule with impunity and without any danger of being challenged for supremacy.
Meanwhile there was a third crime family in a neighboring city watching these events closely and wondering aloud, could these two crime families beat each up so badly and inflict permanent damage to each other that it proved a Pyrrhic victory for the victor and a devastating unrecoverable loss for the loser? In that case, this third family could move in suddenly with its resources and begin to take over because the the other two crime families had weakened themselves so badly and left themselves so vulnerable so that neither family had the strength to fight back.
In a nutshell, I believe this is exactly what happened to boost Rick Santorum to the top of the mountain and perhaps destroyed the candidacies of both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the process. Newt was the victim of carpet bombing. Mitt rolled over him as the Germans rolled over the French in 1940 on their way to Paris using blitzkrieg tactics. Again Newt has lost 50% of his support since the carpet bombing began.
As for Mitt Romney, I believe he has suffered some serious political fallout from adopting these brutal tactics against Gingrich and the fallout is especially most pronounced from conservatives and evangelicals who at CPAC told Mitt don't you dare use these tactics against Rick Santorum. And furthermore these tactics simply reinforced why conservatives and evangelicals have not taken to Romney in the first place.
Mitt probably thought that if he won Florida that he would like McCain be declared by the media as the presumptive winner and that conservatives and evangelicals would gradually filter over to his tent as had been done in the past when the media declared a winner.
And this is where Romney's FATAL FLAW (besides Romneycare) came back to bite him in the rear end. Mitt Romney has had 6 long years to sweet-talk, cajole, rap with, have one-on-one conversations, engage groups in informal discussions, visit churches, speak to conservatives and evangelicals from the stage, break bread with them--whatever you want to call his interaction with conservatives and evangelicals--and it has gone for naught. He has never succeeded n building a bridge to the party base. If Romney had, enough of them in theory might have been able to embrace him as the nominee as they did with McCain four years earlier. Instead the greater majority of these folks still consider Romney as an anathema and I believe after the Florida primary rededicated themselves to stopping Mitt Romney from winning the nomination.
Contrary to popular belief and my occasional comments questioning the intelligence of the base, these folks for the most part are NOT so stupid or clued out that they cannot come to terms with the new political reality. And I believe as the new lay of the land began to emerge, a good number of Gingrich supporters did come to conclusion, although reluctantly, that Romney had indeed succeeded in inflicting a mortal wound to the Gingrich campaign which Newt would have a very difficult time to recover and rebound from.
Now why do I come to that conclusion? Look at the poll numbers. Since Jan. 26 and after Florida primary, Newt Gingrich's national poll numbers have been on a constant downward spiral while Rick Santorum's poll numbers have soared through the roof. Three polls now show Newt sitting at 16% or 17%. After his win in SC, Newt was in the high 20's or low 30's.
Santorum has turned out be that third crime family. In the PPP poll released in the middle of December he was sitting at 4% nationally. As you can see 7 weeks later he is now at 38%. And in essence here is why Romney's decision to carpet bomb Newt may be looked upon by political historians one day as a blunder of monumental proportions. There is no way in hell that Rick Santorum could have moved up the ladder so precipitately if not for Romney's decision to carpet-bomb Newt. Santorum was really an afterthought leaving Florida. There was talk he would drop out of the primaries. Now he has become 'the man'. And the reason he has become 'the man' can be summarized by what poster HitNRun posted at Hot Air a couple of days ago: "Santorum was the fifth choice of conservatives; he certainly wasn't the first."
As they say timing is everything. Santorum was the last conservative standing besides Newt. Conservatives and evangelicals over the last week or two have deserted Newt and gone over to Rick in huge numbers. This is not me offering idle speculation. Look at the numbers.
Now this begs the question what are the prospects that Newt Gingrich can win these folks back from Santorum? Let me offer an analogy. A woman who has often contemplated leaving and divorcing her husband finally reaches a point of no return and divorces him and eventually begins dating again with a man she likes and is comfortable with. Yes, there are cases where women who divorce their husbands come to "see the light" sometime down the road and marry him again but in the great majority of cases, once a woman has moved past the divorce and is comfortable in a new relationship she does not go back--she has burned her bridges and does not look in the rear-view mirror. And I would venture to say for many conservatives, evangelicals, and even Tea Party supporters that is the case for Rick Santorum. They are not about to anytime soon to return to Gingrich's tent. They have moved on and at least in the short term Newt in all likelihood will not be able to win the greater majority of them back. Over the long term, I guess anything is possible.
And finally there is an economic or metaphysical law called THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES in which outcomes are NOT what the proponent of a particular action intended, expected or envisioned.
Sarah Palin is definitely one of the most influential people in the Republican party and conservative circles. It was mainly because of her recommendation to vote for Newt in SC that Newt won there and also she deserves a lot of credit for the primary process still continuing and for Romney to be denied his coronation. But it is also because of her actions that Rick Santorum is now where he is in the polls. What Palin did over the last 60 days was to galvanize conservatives, evangelicals and TP supporters to awaken from their pessimism and doldrums and to instead vigorously oppose the nomination of Mitt Romney. They have followed her lead and done that. Mitt Romney is no longer the inevitable candidate. But what they have NOT done is to embrace the man she is championing, Newt Gingrich. Instead Rick Santorum is now the man of the hour.
The law off unintended consequences, my friends.
I’m not all that pumped about any of them—I’ve tried to be, but it just isn’t happening.
I would like to see Sarah run—then I could get excited, but many say she couldn’t beat FUBO-——
Deep thoughts...
/johnny
I’ve been musing over the past few weeks that whoever emerges from the four remaining candidates as the nominee is going to lose....
Now, that’s not what I wish for and i wont give up and throw in the towel; I will try my best to support whomever but I just don’t have any true confidence in any of the current candidates...nine of them seem to have that “it” factor that every presidential winner usually has....you either got it or don’t.
I’m sure that’s a typo and you meant NONE of them—LOL!
Whoever the not Obama candidate is, that’s who I will have to vote for............
We’re really screwed this time around IMHO.
Surely we have better conservative candidate material than what’s out there now.
Alaska 27 Georgia 76 Idaho 32 Massachusetts 41 North Dakota 28 Ohio 66 Oklahoma 43 Tennessee 58 Vermont 17 Virginia 49 Wyoming 29 Total 466 Total to date 811 - 35% To Nominate 1144
Of the group I still say Newt is the man with the experience and Conservatism needed for our country. I just don’t think Santorum has been around long enough. IMHO he would be a good VP under Newt and then in 8 years he would be more than ready for the job. Mitt is a RINO and Paul is a nutjob on foreign policy.
Our guys aren’t that bad. Newt has perfect recall and can argue facts anytime any day with anyone.
Rick is ‘severely’ conservative and would go a long way toward America’s recovery from the Obama years.
Even Paul is brilliant when it comes to money and would honestly try to reverse the damage if he were President. We won’t discuss foreign policy here.
I’ll get back to you on Romney, trying to find something good to say.
Is VA going to allow write-ins?
we need to be thinking long and hard about winning four senate seats. This battle favors us much more than the battle for the white house and the payoff is just as sweet. If we have both houses of legislature and they have the white house, they’re fu**ed and we’re golden.
Tha Santorum stuff hasn’t come out widely yet. Like the 2 mill house he got evidently for nothing and the home school tricks and not living in PA, etc etc
It’s coming and where are those tax returns?????
Is VA going to allow write-ins?
For what it’s worth with the last line being the closer.
February 6th, 2012
On February 3, the Virginia House passed HB 1132, the bill to allow write-ins in primaries, if the party holding the primary wants write-ins. The vote was 50-49.
Republican legislators were more supportive of the bill than Democratic legislators. Republicans supported it by a margin of 38-28. However, Democrats opposed it, with 11 “yes” votes but 21 “no” votes. The lone independent, Delegate Lacey Putney, voted in favor of write-ins.
Now the bill goes to the State Senate, where there are almost as many Democrats as Republicans. Virginia already allows write-ins in general elections, and the State Constitution requires write-in space on general election ballots. One wonders if the legislators who voted “no” on this bill would also like to eliminate write-ins in general elections. The mainstream Virginia press is not covering this bill. I could only find one news story about the bill, and it was written before the bill passed the House.
In 1984, the Democratic National Convention unanimously passed a resolution that said, “The Democratic Party of the United States recognizes the right to vote as the most fundamental of all rights in our democracy. And no duty of the Party is more important than protecting the sanctity of this right.” The right to vote is meaningless without the right of choice for whom to vote.
If this bill passes, it would not take effect in time for the March 6 presidential primary, in which only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are on the ballot, with no write-in space.
How about if they cross out Romney and print Newt or Rick in the margin?
If that won’t work we need to get ‘Operation Paul Chaos’ working. If Paul wins, Romney doesn’t get 49 delegates.
Just like the super bowl. Brady tried to run 8 minutes off the clock to win but threw an interception in the process; just enough to give the Giants an opening ...
Probably not.
Santorum is not conservative by any stretch.
Conservatives are not that stupid.
Santorum will step on his own organ, and either Romney, or Gingrich will be the beneficiary. (probably Romney)
Palin will continue to hang back.
Public policy polling
Via Twitter:
Rick Santorum up in Michigan by 10-15 points on Mitt Romney. Poll to be released tomorrow.
What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like
NEA
Voted for taxpayer funding of the National Endowment for the Arts.
Voted against a 10% cut in the budget for National Endowment for the Arts.
Bankruptcy
Voted for a Schumer amendment to make the debts of pro-life demonstrators not dischargeable in bankruptcy.
Defense and Foreign Policy
Voted for the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Voted against requiring the President to certify that the CWC is effectively verifiable.
Voted against requiring the President to certify that that Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, and all other countries determined to be state sponsors of terror have joined CWC prior to submitting the instrument of ratification.
Voted for the START II Treaty.
Voted to allow the sale of supercomputers to China.
Voted to ban anti-personnel landmines.
Voted against increasing defense spending offset by equivalent cuts in non-defense spending.
Voted to require that Federal bureaucrats get the same pay raises as uniformed military.
Voted to allow food and medicine sales to state sponsors of terror and tyrannical regimes such as Libya and Cuba.
Voted to limit the President’s authority to impose sanctions on nations for reasons of national security unless the sanctions were approved by a multilateral regime.
Voted against requiring Congressional authorization for military action in Bosnia.
Voted to give $25 million in foreign aid to North Korea.
Voted to weaken alien terrorist deportation provisions. If the Court determines that the evidence must be withheld for national security reasons, the Justice Department must still provide a summary of the evidence sufficient for the alien terrorist to mount a defense against deportation.
Voted against delaying the India Nuclear until the President certified that India had agreed to suspend military-to-military exchanges with Iran.
Voted against the Conventional Trident Missile Program.
Nominations
Voted for Richard Paez to the 9th Curcuit (cloture).
Voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Circuit Judge.
Voted for Richard Holbrooke to be Ambassador to the UN.
Voted for Margaret Morrow to be District Judge.
Voted twice for Marsha Berzon to the 9thg Circuit.
Voted for Mary McLaughlin to be District Judge.
Voted for Tim Dyk to be District Judge.
Voted for James Brady to be District Judge.
Labor
Voted against National Right to Work Act.
Voted against repeal of Davis-Bacon Prevailing union wages.
Voted for Alexis Herman to be Secretary of Labor.
Voted for mandatory Federal child care funding.
Voted for Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Voted for Job Corps funding.
Voted twice in support of Fedex Unionization.
Voted against allowing a waiver of Davis-Bacon in emergency situations.
Voted for minimum wage increases six times here here here here here and here.
Voted to require a union representative on an IRS oversight board.
Voted to exempt IRS union representatives from criminal ethics laws.
Voted against creating independent Board of Governors to investigate IRS abuses.
Guns
Voted to require pawn shops to do background checks on people who pawn a gun.
Voted twice to make it illegal to sell a gun without a secure storage or safety device.
Voted for a Federal ban on possession of “assault weapons” by those under 18.
Voted for Federal funding for anti-gun education programs in schools.
Voted for anti-gun juvenile justice bill.
Reform
Voted for funding for the legal services corporation.
Voted twice for a Congressional pay raise.
Voted to impose a uniform Federal mandate on states to force them to allow convicted rapists, arsonists, drug kingpins, and all other ex-convicts to vote in Federal elections.
Voted for the Specter “backup plan” to allow campaign finance reform to survive if portions of the bill were found unconstitutional.
Voted to mandate discounted broadcast times for politicians.
Voted for a McCain amendment to require state and local campaign committees to report all campaign contributions to the FEC and to require all campaign contributions to be reported to the FEC within 24 hours within 90 days of an election.
Immigration
Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators.
Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens.
Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.
Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to the earnings of their sponsors.
Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border patrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.
Taxes
Voted against a flat tax.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.
Voted twice for internet taxes.
Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.
Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.
Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.
Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.
Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.
Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.
Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.
Welfare
Voted against food stamp reform.
Voted against Medicaid reform.
Voted against TANF reform.
Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion.
Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.
Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.
Waste
Sponsored an amendment to increase Amtrak funds by $550 million.
Voted to use HUD funds for the Joslyn Art Museum (NE), the Stand Up for Animals project (RI) and the Seattle Art Museum’s Olympic Sculpture Project (WA).
Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion.
Voted to increase NIH funding by $1.6 billion.
Voted to increase NIHnding by $700 million.
Voted to for a $2 million earmark to renovate the Vulcan Monument (AL).
Voted for a $1 billion bailout for the steel industry.
Voted against requiring that highway earmarks would come out of a state’s highway allocation.
Voted to allow Market Access Program funds to go to foreign companies.
Voted to allow OPIC to increase its administrative costs by 50%.
Voted against transferring $20 million from AmeriCorps to veterans.
Voted for the $140 billion asbestos compensation bill.
Voted against requiring a uniform medical criteria to ensure asbestos claims were legitimate.
Voted to increase community development programs by $2 billion.
Spending and Entitlements
Voted to make Medicare part B premium subsidies a new entitlement.
Voted against paying off the debt ($5.6 trillion at the time) within 30 years.
Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF.
Voted to raid Social Security instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.
Health Care
Voted to allow states to impose health care mandates that are stricter than proposed new Federal mandates, but not weaker.
Voted twice for Federal mental health parity mandates in health insurance.
Voted against allowing consumers the option to purchase a plan outside the parity mandate.
Education
Voted to increase Federal funding for teacher testing.
Voted to increase spending for the Department of Education by $3.1 billion.
Voted against requiring courts to consider the impact of IDEA awards on a local school district.
Energy
Voted to allow the President to designate certain sites as interim nuclear waste storage sites in the event that he determines that Yucca Mountain is not a suitable site for a permanent waste repository. Those sites are as follows: the nuclear waste site in Hanford, Washington; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; Barnwell County, South Carolina; and the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee.
Voted to make fuel price gouging a Federal crime.
How sweet that evangelicals, after standing aside watching Romney unload below-the-belt at Gingrich, have let Romney know in no uncertain terms that they won't tolerate the same against Santorum or his wife! Harrrummmph!
Meanwhile, where are the "attacks" on political philosophy? Romney can't attack Santorum on much of anything except gay rights, "denying" global warming, and national health care -- aside from not wanting mandates, where does Santorum stand on it, by the way? They agree pretty much on Daddy State Government stuff like minimum wage and government charity like Head Start.
Gingrich, on the other hand, TALKS TURKEY about the moves he plans to take in order to restore limited government and lower taxes, as anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear knows. Santorum used to call him his mentor, for Pete's sake. Between Santorum and Gingrich, Newt is easily the more qualified guy.
The stupid destructiveness of "values" politics of the compassionate conservative right's social conservatives has created a situation where neither Romney nor Santorum dare attack Newt or each other on their actual political platforms.
Godspeed Newt Gingrich.
SO, you know secrets about Santorum that nobody else knows, and they are coming out?
Actually, nothing you mentioned (well, nothing that resembles the bizarre misinterpretations you mention) is new. That’s how you know it. A good rule of thumb is, if you know something, it probably means everybody already knows it. You aren’t going to be the source of a really good leak, or some deep investigative breakthrough.
I can tell you one thing — not one person in Virginia will care where Santorum lived or didn’t live during his 2006 senate race. He’s running for President of the United States, and as long as he’s a citizen, that’s all that matters.
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