Posted on 09/17/2011 1:20:17 PM PDT by techno
First, here are the results of the CBS/NYT poll conducted between Sept 10-15 of GOP primary voters (after both debates)and released yesterday. Sarah Palin was NOT a part of the mix, but 3% of the respondents "volunteered" her name without being prompted by the pollster to do so. In addition Huckabee received 2%, McCain 1% and Christie 1% of the vote in the same manner.
Again do not be mislead by Palin receiving 3% of the vote. She was NOT included as an option. Only announced Presidential contenders were part of the mix.
So here are the results:
PERRY 23%
ROMNEY 16%
GINGRICH 7%
BACHMANN 7%
PAUL 5%
CAIN 5%
HUNTSMAN 1%
SANTORUM 1%
NO ONE 2%
OTHER 4%
UNDECIDED/DK 22%
VOLUNTEER:
PALIN 3%
HUCKABEE 2%
MCCAIN 1%
CHRISTIE 1%
10 Takeaways or conclusions:
1)Again Palin was not in the mix. Compared to the NBC/WSJ poll conducted between Aug 27-31 (two weeks earlier) Rick Perry has fallen back 15 points (38 to 23) and Romney has fallen back 7 points (23 to 16). And compared to the Politico/Battleground poll conducted two weeks earlier Perry has fallen back 13 points (36 to 23).
2)Meanwhile recent ABC/WAPO (14%) and CNN (15%) polls both show Sarah Palin in the ascendancy over those two weeks. Palin has NOT been as high in the polls since mid-July 2011 when ABC/WAPO reported her at 16%. And then you have to go back to late May and early June to see Palin in that range consistently, perhaps caused somewhat by Huckabee's decision not to run, which he announced on May 14.
3)Could the polling community, many of its members get its marching orders from the Obama WH or the GOP establishment have made a huge mistake by trying to "ignore a sleeping giant" in an arbitrary fashion by not including Palin the mix for the past month or so? Would it perhaps been better to report her numbers and to keep the race tight rather to report on Perry's and Romney's sudden steep declines without Palin in the mix? By taking her out of the mix, they can't use her as an excuse to why both first tier candidates have suddenly fallen on hard times.
4)All polls need to be confirmed but the one recent polling stat that should be shouted from the rooftops if you prefer Perry not be the GOP nominee is that based on a CNN poll released a few days ago 59% of Tea Party supporters disagree with Perry's characterization of Social Security as a Ponzi scheme or monstrous lie and this poll was conducted BEFORE the second debate on Monday. Did you hear the boos in the audience directed at Perry for his position on illegal immigration and in-state tuition for illegals? And of course there is always Gardasil to stick the knife into Perry a little deeper.
5)Of Perry supporters taken as a whole and Romney supporters taken as a whole, CBS/NYT reports that in both cases 3 of 5 supporters "have reservations" about their candidate. Translation: The majority of support for both Perry and Romney is "soft".
6)Many pollsters in the past few months have touted "the electability argument" over "the share one's values argument" (especially among Tea party supporters) to artificially give Mitt Romney an upper hand in the primary race. Well this poll shows that 48% of GOP primary voters feel it is important to have a nominee that shares their values while 48% say it is more important to have a nominee who can beat Obama in 2012. This is definitely counterintuitive. Team Romney and the GOP establishment will not be happy with this revelation and certainly don't want the yokels in the hinterlands to get wind of this apparent shift in political sentiment.
7)And in case you are beginning to think this poll treated Sarah Palin fairly by not officially polling her for the GOP horserace, here is a polling stat for the ages: CBS/NYT claims in this poll that only 36% of Republican voters now favor Palin and that 39% now give her the thumbs down while 25% have no opinion.
This is an absolute joke. All we need to do is to go back to the most recent national PPP poll of GOP contenders conducted between Aug 21-24, three weeks before the CBS poll (PPP did not poll Palin for its Sept national poll of GOP contenders) to find Palin favored by 62% of GOP primary voters while 30% said at the time they had an unfavorable view of her and 9% said they were not sure. Ad if you go back into the PPP archives month by month in 2011 you will see similar numbers.
And now suddenly CBS is reporting a 35 point swing in fortune for Palin, especially in the wake of her two widely-acclaimed speeches over the Labor Day weekend. This particular result is obviously bogus and wreaks of desperation. Why? Because CBS/NYT found both Perry and Romney now on the decline in the horse race and they know again from recent ABC/WAPO and CNN polls that Palin is now on the upswing. They had to find a way to slap her down.
8)CBS/NYT is also reporting that the GOP now has a 16 point lead over the Democrats (44% to 28%) in a measurement called the "enthusiasm gap" which is essentially a barometer of how committed each side is to going to the polling station in 2012. As a point of reference and in contrast about the same point in the election cycle in 2007, the Democrats led the GOP by 37% to 18% in the "enthusiasm gap".
This is simply a continuation of the "enthusiasm gap" found in the six months leading up to the 2010 midterm election and also confirmation that "the angry white voter" is still angry. (White voters made up 89% of McCain's vote in 2008.)
9)About the same time in the last election cycle here is where the GOP presidential contenders stood:
GIULIANI 34%
THOMPSON 23%
MCCAIN 16%
ROMNEY 9%
Two points: It was at this time that McCain hit his lower-water mark in his campaign, while confessing he was now low on funds, carrying his own luggage and flying commercial. And Mitt Romney is only doing 7 points better than he was doing in 2007 but without Palin in the mix. That is what Romney's multi-million dollar fundraising this election cycle has yielded so far.
10) And without Palin in the mix, Mitt Romney only captures 10% of the evangelical vote, 10% of the VERY CONSERVATIVE vote, and 12% of the Tea party vote. CBS/NYT reports than 2 out of every 3 GOP primary voter considers himself or herself as a conservative (Gallup has reported of GOP members 72% self-identify as conservative)
And via the 2008 exit polls evangelicals made up 44% of all GOP primary voters.
And CBS/NYT is reporting that Tea party supporters now comprise 49% of the GOP primary voters in 2012.
And bearing these parameters in mind and polling so poorly among conservatives, evangelicals and TP supporters Romney expects to win the nomination.
And again for the last time, Sarah Palin was not polled.
What Romney needs is "a parting of the Red Sea miracle" to win the nomination. I don't think he is going to get it.
Once Palin enters the race look for Romney to move back to third spot almost instantly. As always the numbers never lie.
“Only announced Presidential contenders were part of the mix.”
As it should be.
What makes you think Palin is going to enter the race?
The frequency with which her name is mentioned would indicate the contrary.
Because Tokyo Rove said so.
My next post will go into that.
Simply I have read the tea leaves over the past 2 and 1/2 years.
Why did Palin not take full advantage this summer while her kids were out of school and go on a paid speaking tour to maximize her income?
Why did Sarah Palin not sign on for a second season of Sarah Palin’s Alaska (SPAK) and thus forgo the opportunity to bank millions more?
And why has Sarah Palin not told Organize4Palin to cease and desist, knowing that hundreds of thousands of volunteers across the country await word she is running (Peter Singleton interview)?
“Rick Perry has fallen back 15 points (38 to 23) and Romney has fallen back 7 points”
Palin will jump in soon.
Amazing that Gingrich can poll 7% while barely campaigning.
At this point, I seriously question the judgement of die-hard Palin supporters.
Uh...did you just try and say the top numbers of a different poll should be subtracted from this poll? LOL
That isn’t how it works. You compare the SAME POLLING COMPANY to itself to determine trends.
9)About the same time in the last election cycle here is where the GOP presidential contenders stood:
GIULIANI 34%
THOMPSON 23%
MCCAIN 16%
ROMNEY 9%
Quite frankly that is the most important part of the entire story. Go Palin!!!! We still believe in you and need you DESPERATELY!!!!!
I don’t care if you question my judgement one bit. President Palin will change your mind right away. I suppose you are a Perry supporter.....roll eyes.
| Poll | Date | Perry | Romney | Palin | Paul | Bachmann | Gingrich | Cain | Santorum | Huntsman | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 8/27 - 9/15 | 29.9 | 19.4 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | Perry +10.5 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 9/10 - 9/15 | 23 | 16 | -- | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Perry +7 |
| Bloomberg | 9/9 - 9/12 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Perry +4 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 9/9 - 9/11 | 30 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Perry +12 |
| PPP (D) | 9/8 - 9/11 | 31 | 18 | -- | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | Perry +13 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 8/29 - 9/1 | 29 | 23 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Perry +6 |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 8/28 - 9/1 | 36 | 17 | -- | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | Perry +19 |
| FOX News | 8/29 - 8/31 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | Perry +8 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 8/27 - 8/31 | 38 | 23 | -- | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Perry +15 |
Bookmarked for later.
It's not like he doesn't have anything to offer, but he's on the wrong side of a couple of critical issues, first and foremost illegal immigration.
If he presents a good and convincing case for a viable solution to our illegal immigration problems, he might have a better chance, but I think his own words and past actions will be effectively used against him.
He might also be able to put a pretty spin on his life as a demonrat and campaigning for Algore, but I'd be surprised if that happens.
It's true that Reagan switched parties and we love him for it, but consider that Perry didn't switch parties until after Reagan, not during his time as POTUS.
If he had switched during Reagan and because of Reagan, that would be a 'he's one of us' talking point, but looking at his conversion time line, I don't think that's the case. He's a bit too slow out of the gate to make that case.
Good analysis. I think Palin is letting Perry take out Romney and letting the other fade, before she announces.
Work smarter, not harder.
Idle speculation.
How long will you wait for her?
Do you have a link for any of this?
In Palin's case, I believe looking at the striations in the bearskin is the proper approach...
Why did Palin not take full advantage this summer while her kids were out of school and go on a paid speaking tour to maximize her income?
Because a book, a movie, and a $3,000,000 FOX News contract got in the way? Note that the contract prohibits Palin from speaking to/for other news organizations - and that might include a paid speaking tour with other people/organizations. Why take a risk on making a few hundred thousand per engagement when you have 3 million dollars locked-in?
Why did Sarah Palin not sign on for a second season of Sarah Palin’s Alaska (SPAK) and thus forgo the opportunity to bank millions more?
Probably wouldn't be allowed with the FOX News deal she has. You know, the one with the guaranteed $1,000,000 a year for three years.
And why has Sarah Palin not told Organize4Palin to cease and desist, knowing that hundreds of thousands of volunteers across the country await word she is running (Peter Singleton interview)?
Who do you think would read her books or see her movie? What better way to sell books and tickets than to have those loyal fans hang on her every word? Do you think her movie would have done as well as it did if she had announced she was NOT running for President?
Now a question for you: why would Palin sign a 3 year contract with FOX if she was planning to run for President? Breaking contracts early nearly always carry penalties and are not clean at all - why not sign a 6 month or 1 year deal, rather than a 3 year deal?
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