Sarah Palin: Why the Marist poll showing Palin within 5 points of Obama is no fluke!

September 22, 2011 | techno

[techno]

The $64,000 question: Was the recent Marist-McClatchey poll that showed Sarah Palin within 5 points in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama a fluke?

Here are 10 reasons why I do NOT believe this particular result or the overall poll was a fluke:

1)The piece by pollinsider.com explaining in his usual analytical fashion why the result "is no fluke"

http://pollinsider.com/2011/09/21/palin-47-obama-47-turnaround-why-marist-poll-is-no-fluke/

Besides his discussion of how the Democrats were oversampled by 8 points, he also points out that of the 6% undecided in the 49/44 head to head result in Obama's favor, 67% are independents, 20% are Republicans and only 13% are Democrats and that "in this case those undecideds are mostly Obama-disapproving Independents followed by Republicans". In other words pollinsider.com is making the argument that the above result is no fluke because Palin is actually doing better against Obama than the current 5 point deficit and is actually tied with Obama at 47% apiece if the sample had been adjusted to the 2010 exit polls and the undecideds as expected would have gone mostly to Palin.

2)What many folks missed about the independent demographic is that in a head to head matchup in August 2011 Obama was supported by 48% and Palin 42% of indie voters despite overall Palin polled 21 points behind Obama (57 to 36). In other words the result this month of Palin taking a 4 point lead over Obama among independent voters (47 to 43) is no more than a natural progression made even more possible by Obama's declining approval rating of his job performance by independent voters.

3) A key point that few people have brought up elsewhere in the right-wing blogosphere is that the greatest contribution in Palin narrowing her margin by 16 points over the course of a month from 21 points to a mere 5 points was the seismic shift in her polling numbers among those who know her the best, Republicans, Tea Party supporters and conservatives. I have long made the argument that the primary reason Palin had heretofore shown to be 15-25 points behind Obama in head to head polls is because of only 60%-70% of her own party members supporting her in these polls. At currently 81% support from the GOP, 87% support from TP supporters and 74% support from conservatives, she is now back in the game.

Note that Mitt Romney garners 93% of the GOP vote to Palin's 81%. But Romney only commands the same percentage of the overall vote as Palin against Obama: 44%. Much of the 3 point spread between the Obama-Romney showdown vs the Obama-Palin showdown (46-44 vs 49-44) can be attributed to this difference in support by party members.

Once Palin becomes a declared candidate I expect her to move towards Romney's level of support within the GOP or to at least match Rick Perry's current Republican support which is now at 87%.

4)Polls must be put in context. If the Palin poll result is considered a fluke then many of the individual demographics attached to the result must be askew or simply way off the mark. Examine the demographics of the other four GOP prospects or candidates polled and you will see that Palin's poll numbers are NOT out of line with the others.

Let's take 3 categories: Whites, independents and conservatives:

-------------GIULIANI--ROMNEY--PALIN--PERRY--BACHMANN

WHITES---------34/58----41/50---42/52--43/50--45/47

INDEPENDENTS---37/51----40/44---43/47--43/43--48/38

CONSERVATIVES--13/79----21/74---19/74--21/73--23/72

I suppose one could argue that Rudy's numbers "are a fluke", but we are dealing with Palin here, not Rudy.

5)As a follow-up on #2, Obama has shown a fundamental weakness in several polls over an extended period even before Marist released this poll. In those polls the Messiah was shown with approval numbers in the low 40's and re-elect numbers in the high 30's and low 40's. And furthermore if you compare Obama's approval numbers at the time of the midterm election to now you will see Obama is falling short. Here are three glaring examples from the Gallup weekly summary:

Approval rating at midterms vs now:

--------------MIDTERMS----NOW---NET DIFFERENCE

WHITES----------36%-------31%----- -5

FEMALES---------49%-------43%----- -6

SOME COLLEGE*----43%-------37%----- -6

*Those who attended college but did not graduate with a 4 year college degree.

Based on Obama's falling support from the midterms, is it any surprise that Palin has cut into Obama's lead?

However, what is completely off base is in the wake of this meltdown by Obama is for any pollster to make the outrageous claim that Obama would blow Palin out in the general election reminiscent of the Goldwater blowout in 1964.

6)If this poll result was a fluke why did Real Clear Politics alter its policy of including Palin on its board of GOP contenders by promptly erasing her name from the rolls? Coincidence: I think not. If this result was a fluke shouldn't RCP have just dismissed its importance, ignored it and moved on? Was removing Palin's name from the board an acknowledgement of the validity of the poll result of Palin only trailing Obama by 5 points and a sign of fear, desperation and panic by the GOP establishment and Beltway crowd that the meme that Palin is unelectable is beginning to develop serious cracks and not as believable as it once was?

7)And if this poll result were regarded as a fluke why have "the smart people" reacted accordingly by causing a lot more trading activity on Palin's Intrade account in the past couple of days?

8)When polled recently by Marist, CNN and ABC/WAPO in the horse race polls of the GOP presidential contenders, Sarah Palin has shown up in the mid teen range which is better than she had been polling since mid-July. In other words here is another measurement which shows a boost in support for her among GOP primary voters recently. So therefore is it any wonder in a head to head matchup with Obama in September that she should bring over that increased "base" support with her to narrow her margin against him? I think not.

9)And putting the Marist poll in historical context, this poll was taken after Palin's two spectacular speeches to TP supporters over the Labor Day weekend and the later write-up by Anand G. at the New York Times giving her good reviews on her devotion to the topic of crony capitalism. Bearing in mind that Obama's fortunes are even sinking within his own base (Steve Chapman of the Chicago Tribune called on Obama not to run again) and the positive reception again to the above speeches, wouldn't it seem reasonable to conclude that this would translate into Palin's poll numbers against Obama improving as well?

Sure, I suppose you could make the argument that her overall poll numbers against Obama might have improved by as much as 8 points but to improve by 16 points over the course of a month beggars belief or defies the law of gravity. To that argument I would submit that I don't think it would be possible either unless the President was currently in free fall and headed for the abyss. And objectively that is apparently what is happening to Obama now and over the past month. Sometimes when you live through a historical moment you don't realize what is happening or that a fundamental shift may be occurring. Sept 2011, in terms of the GOP primaries and the 2012 general election may be one of those times.

10)And finally the reason this result showing Palin only 5 points in arrears of Obama head to head is no fluke is the current implosion of the Bachmann campaign and Rick Perry's sub-par performances in his first two debates. As a result more and more GOP primary voters see Sarah Palin as more viable and electable; again witness the net +29 gain among both Republican members and TP supporters and a net +20 gain among conservatives over the course of only one month.

And finally there are continued rumblings that Palin is about to throw her hat into the ring by the end of September, convincing more and more GOP primary voters that she is running and that she should be seen now as a serious presidential candidate. And that includes the changing perceptions of many independents as well.

[vicar7]

Wow!! Without even getting in the game or declaring: Game On she is doing well. I cannot wait til “Game On” and she starts “Fighting Like A Girl.”

[RedMDer]

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

An outlier can be an outlier for many reasons, wrong analysis is just one issue.

What other polls have her within 10?

[vicar7]

Thanks for the pic

[tlb]

The very same poll also includes the following:

By 72 percent to 24 percent, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do not want Palin to run for president in 2012. Even among tea party supporters - a group that likes Palin - 68 percent do not want her to run.

Taken together isn’t this poll really showing more that Palin qualifies as “Generic Republican” vs Obama? ie - “We’ll even vote for Palin if we HAD to, but we’d rather nominate somebody other then Palin.”

[RedMDer]

Had to be done :)

[GlockLady]

I think her two speeches during Labor Day weekend and the ensuing articles/discussions about it are a major factor in her increase in popularity. The crony-capitalism issue wins a lot of Democrats and Independents. Dems place a lot of stock in the New York Times and that article by Anand G. really woke a lot of them up. Stephen Bannon’s screenings of The Undefeated to bloggers and Liberal reporters has cause them to take a second look. CNN also has a different take on her since the Don Lemons interview during the Iowa fair. Once she gets out there more visible as she formally campaigns, she will run away with it. So many had been just working off of the old memes that the detractors spun up since the 2008 election.

[reasonisfaith]

At the risk of repeating myself to an annoying degree, I must say it sure will be interesting to see what happens to Palin’s support as more and more people get a chance to see The Undefeated.

[Strategerist]

You could have saved a lot of typing time by just stating “this poll is right because the result is what I want.”

[Strategerist]

I must say it sure will be interesting to see what happens to Palin’s support as more and more people get a chance to see The Undefeated.

I must say it sure will be completely uninteresting.

It hasn't been in theaters since August 11th. It grossed an astounding $116,381.

I can't begin to fathom who would watch it on DVD other than someone that is already a Palin supporter (other than perhaps people having a humorous "Mystery Undefeated Theater 3000" party).

[Elle Bee]

Palin/McCotter 2012

Rep. McCotter Ponders 2012 Presidential Run
Wall Street Journal ^ | May 24, 2011 | Jonathan Weisman

McCotter: Dems support shutting down govt for more spending (4.7.2011)

Gutfeld: Why Thaddeus McCotter Should Run for President (4.22.2011)

Thaddeus McCotter, guitar hero and 2012 dark horse: A Michigan star rises in Washington

.

[techno]

McCotter just withdrew from the race and now is backing Romney.

[Elle Bee]

awwww .... well he was wrong on the auto bailout but given his district I can see why he voted that way

but he was preety good on a lot of the other bailout garbage .... he was only running for VP anyway

Thaddeus McCotter talk about Sarah Palin

The BailOut Fiasco: I Am With Them

McCotter Rejects 700 Billion Dollar Bag of Dung

The Best of Thaddeus McCotter: Humor

Rep. Thad McCotter on Obama's problems in Michigan

The BailOut Fiasco: Rep. Thaddeus McCotter

McCotter: Dems support shutting down govt for more spending (4.7.2011)

Gutfeld: Why Thaddeus McCotter Should Run for President (4.22.2011)

McCotter Grills Kashkari on TARP at Financial Services Hearing

McCotter Grills Chairman Bernanke at Financial Services Committee Hearing

Thaddeus McCotter on Congress's Blog Ban

Chris Matthews interview with Thaddeus McCotter on his resolution to Have Obama Apologize to the Cambridge Police for pre-judging their actions

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[techno]

This Marist poll result says it all about Mitt Romney:

PERRY 20%

GIULIANI 14%

ROMNEY 13%

PALIN 13%

When a man who has been running for president for 7 years can only a tie an undeclared candidate with a zero burn rate, he is in deep, deep trouble.

[reasonisfaith]

We’ll see about that.