Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (Polls and 10 random thoughts to chew on)

August 30, 2011 | techno

[techno]

On Monday and early Tuesday morning five heady polls were released:

1) The CNN poll of GOP contenders with a complete demographic breakdown.

2) The Gallup weekly summary (GWS)of last week's daily tracking poll results with an accompanying demographic breakdown.

3) The weekly Daily Kos poll (conducted by Public Policy Polling)showing a complete demographic breakdown, Obama's approval/disapproval and how Obama would do in the 2012 election if the election were held today.

4)Rasmussen's weekly healthcare poll of the repeal of Obamacare showing 57% want it repealed and only 37% want it kept the way it is and the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot where 45% would vote for the GOP congressional candidate in 2012 and only 36% would vote for the Democratic candidate, and that includes 50% of white voters who favor the GOP and only 31% who favor the Dems.

With these five polls in mind here are ten random thoughts:

a)Last week Rasmussen published a poll that showed President Obama defeating Sarah Palin in a head to head matchup 50% to 33% which included Obama getting 43% of the white vote and Palin 38%.

For that to happen based on the results of the generic congressional ballot today white voters would most likely overwhelmingly vote to elect or re-elect GOP House members and most likely to convert the Senate to be one led by the GOP Senate leader in 2013 but by a swing of 24 points (50-31 to 38-43) decide to keep Obama as President and not only that facilitate a Goldwater landslide.

I assume you are all adults and rational. What are the chances that the Dems could lose both Houses of Congress and in the same election see Obama win a Goldwater landslide over anyone, including Sarah Palin?

Voters are NOT that schizophrenic.

b)As most of you know Sarah Palin favors a full repeal of Obamacare and Obama wants to keep it.

For Sarah Palin to receive only 33% of the popular vote against Obama, of the 57% who currently favor repeal over 40% of those favor repeal would have to not vote to elect Palin as President and in that breakdown 24% would have to vote to re-elect Obama and about 16-18% would have to vote for a third party. And of those voting 3rd party, most of them would know before voting they would be ensuring Obama a second term and that Obamacare would never be repealed.

Sure pollsters can manipulate the numbers all they want but simply the desire for a third party is not that great among GOP primary voters (a great majority of them favor repeal). On June 14 Rasmussen found only 5% of GOP primary voters would opt to vote for someone other than Obama or the GOP nominee.

c)The CNN poll is confirmation of the polls released last week by Gallup and PPP. Here is the comparison of the overall results;

--------------CNN-------GALLUP------PPP

PERRY---------27---------25----------27

ROMNEY--------14---------14----------17

PALIN---------10---------11----------13

GIULIANI------9----------9------------

BACHMANN------9----------7-----------10

Clearly Rick Perry has a double-digit lead on the field, which makes him a formidable candidate imho and the chances of him plummeting to single digits as Bachmann has done is the difference between slim and none. Perry is a "player" and should not be discounted or dismissed. Yes, he could be the next President of the USA.

d)Mitt Romney is in deep political trouble. For the first time I believe in a national poll of GOP presidential contenders, Romney has fallen below Sarah Palin in MODERATE support in the CNN poll--15% for Palin and 11% for Romney. And to add insult to injury he is now tied with Michele Bachmann as well.

And CNN and PPP show Palin 4 points behind Romney and Gallup 3 points behind Romney. Once she enters the race, expect her to surge past Romney into second spot and vie eventually with Perry for top dog.

Now am I saying Romney is toast? No, not yet. But his demographics need to drastically improve and because of Romney's lack of support among voters who self-identify as VERY CONSERVATIVE and/or Tea Party supporters, I don't see much of a likelihood of a rebound or "second act" for Mitt.

And if and when some or a lot of his MODERATE support act like rats abandoning a sinking ship, you might even see Mitt slide into single digits despite his willingness to spend $50m of his own fortune to stay afloat.

e)And another reason Romney is so vulnerable now is that Perry has eclipsed Mitt in his 3 main strongholds, seniors, college grads and those making over $50K a year.

Check out the data at CNN if you don't believe me. Perry has basically driven a stake into the heart of Romney's political stronghold which only Huckabee had only been able to do to a certain extent when he was in the race.

f)Now Perry also leads among Tea Party supporters at 37% with Sarah Palin according to CNN only getting the support of 6%. Look for that dynamic to alter considerably once she enters the race and for Perry to slip back a bit with TP support while Palin leverages her cachet with the Tea party to close the 17 overall point gap that now exists between her and Perry according to CNN.

Now am I predicting the downfall of Rick Perry. Again no. Am I predicting Sarah Palin will beat Perry? No. But I am shifting my opinion on the final showdown scenario which I projected it would be Romney vs Palin. Now I see it as Perry vs Palin and I am not at this time going to pick a winner.

g)But I will say if things go according to how I see events unfolding and Romney falls out of contention eventually I could see the 2012 GOP nomination being decided by five main factors:

1)Where Romney's MODERATES eventually end up; as both Perry and Palin are perceived as anti-establishment candidates I can't predict that.

2)How the Tea party vote gets divvied up

3)The ability of Sarah Palin to pick up support from Bachmann, Cain and Santorum and to coalesce the movement conservatives/grassroots around her candidacy.

4)Ground strength and game

5)Gaffes and/or campaign performance

NB: I expect Perry and Palin to be both well-funded and whichever one loses it will not be because of a lack of financial wherewithal.

g)Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster, in an exclusive interview with Newsmax, asserted that if the 2012 election were held today, Obama would lose.

Here from the GWS some terrible demographic APPROVAL numbers for Obama:

FEMALES-------------41%

18-29---------------46%

50-64---------------38%

EAST----------------43%

SOUTH---------------35%

WHITE---------------32%

HISPANICS-----------44%

COLLEGE GRAD--------37%

POSTGRAD------------46%

$2000-4999/MO-------38%

LIBERALS------------68%

CONSERVATIVES-------20%

WEEK/MONTH CHURCHGO-37%

MARRIED-------------34%

All the above numbers represent an all-time low in Obama's presidency so far or are tied for the all-time low with Gallup.

And as many of you know Obama hit 38% overall job approval with the Gallup tracking poll a couple of times in the last 7 days. When Carter did the same thing at the same time in his presidency in 1979, he paid the ultimate price in 1980 by being swept aside in a Reagan landslide.

h)The GWS and the DK poll shows Obama currently approved by only 35% and 33% respectively among INDEPENDENT voters. It is hard to imagine now that in 2008 Obama received 52% of the INDEPENDENT vote.

The DK poll on Obama's 2012 re-elect number vs. A GOP generic candidate shows Obama only receiving 37% of the independent vote. The Dems got 38% in the 2010 midterms.

i)Overall in the 2012 Obama re-elect poll, the Messiah would only receive 44% of the popular vote and to boot only 80% of Democrats are willing to support him now while 87% of Republicans are willing to vote for the GOP generic candidate and only 7% would be prepared to vote for Obama. So much for a 3rd party on the right.

In addition only 37% of white voters and only 50% of Hispanic voters are now willing to vote for Obama. In 2008 he got 43% and 67% respectively from these two groups. And remember this poll was conducted by PPP, a Democratic pollster for Daily Kos, which is heavily in the tank with Obama and the Left.

j)And finally let me add a perspective to all these numbers. The first official GOP vote won't be cast in Iowa until Feb 6/2012, 5 months away. There is still plenty of time for the lay of the land to change and for Sarah Palin to get into the race. Anything can happen. The GOP primaries are currently in a state of flux and the situation on the ground is extremely fluid at the moment.

So if you are a Palinista, which I am, don't despair or become extremely anxious or worried or if you are a Perry supporter, don't think you are the cock of the walk and it is an absolute certainty your man is going to win the nomination; but if you are a Romney supporter what I wrote stands: Your man is in a political quagmire right now from which he may not be able to escape.

And finally regarding the fate of Obama in 2012, if this were a game of chess, I would say his queen is very vulnerable right now and he better do something quick to shore up his defenses to protect her from capture because if he doesn't he won't have enough firepower in his arsenal in 2012 to protect his king from being checkmated by how he is handling the economy.

The #1 goal of Team Obama is for the Messiah to face the weakest GOP opponent possible. The #2 goal is to facilitate the creation of a viable 3rd party movement to bleed off white voters from voting for the GOP in 2012.

If neither of these goals can be accomplished by the treachery and machinations of Team Obama, the President can pretty well kiss off his chances at a second term in office based on the bleak nature of his current poll numbers, especially with whites and Hispanics.

[hocndoc]

Great review and discussion!

[don-o]

There is still plenty of time for the lay of the land to change and for Sarah Palin to get into the race.

I'll disagree with that because 5 - 6 months will not be enough time for Sarah to fix her negatives. Some believe she has successfully absorbed and parried all the attacks that the Slime Machine can mount.

I think not. I think that if / when she announces, it all begins all over again, and it will mire her down. I think she knows this. I don't think she runs this year.

And, for the record: I think with my own brain.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

(((((PING)))))

[techno]

I might have thought so too if it were not for The Undefeated.

The Undefeated is a game changer. Throughout the movie, Stephen Bannon champions Sarah Palin’s fiscal conservative credentials and in his words proves once and for all that Palin is NOT “Caribou Barbie.”

And it goes out on DVD release and pay per view and direct TV in a few days for more people to see.

Is it possible that fiscal conservative/social moderate voters (pollsters label them as moderates) have seen the movie and “the light” and changed their attitude towards Palin and her fiscal conservative credentials once they absorb all the facts and realize what a fantastic job she did as governor of Alaska?

[deport]

The first official GOP vote won’t be cast in Iowa until Feb 6/2012, 5 months away. There is still plenty of time for the lay of the land to change and for Sarah Palin to get into the race. Anything can happen. The GOP primaries are currently in a state of flux and the situation on the ground is extremely fluid at the moment.

---

True about the dates but it takes some time to get organizations in place and do the things on the ground to get on the ballot. States vary with requirements but here are three drop dead dates that are approaching with regard to ballot access for that state’s primary.

Oct. 31, Florida
Nov. 2, South Carlolina
Nov. 18, New Hampshire

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

And, for the record: I think with my own brain.

Nobody cares what you think.

[Diogenesis]

Milt Romney is the DNC’s “GOP-spoiler”.

How Milt truly LOVES his job.

[don-o]

I might have thought so too if it were not for The Undefeated.

That's an interesting game plan - to hinge a campaign roll out on the expectation that voters are going to purchase and watch a movie about a person they already have an unfavorable opinion of. Maybe it will work. I doubt it.

But, thank you for the civil exchange. These days, it's the exception around here.

[USS Alaska]

I think not. I think that if / when she announces, it all begins all over again, and it will mire her down. I think she knows this. I don't think she runs this year. And, for the record: I think with my own brain.

You've given your opinion, the only semi-fact is you think, you think with your own brain.

I think, you think with your pituitary gland or your sphincter because your opinions are over blown and stink.

[don-o]

Nobody cares what you think.

And you know that exactly how?

[techno]

Fact: Many GOP primary voters have already seen the movie in theaters and have told their family and friends what they absorbed.

And by the movie going out on DVD in September it gives other GOP primary voters ample opportunity to view the movie before casting their votes sometime next year.

And finally only a few states will be casting ballots in February 2012. For residents in most states they will have a 6 month window to watch the movie before making their vote.

Of course Sarah Palin will be at the same time on the ground giving speeches, granting interviews and participating in GOP debates and many forums.

[taildragger]

That's an interesting game plan - to hinge a campaign roll out on the expectation that voters are going to purchase and watch a movie about a person they already have an unfavorable opinion of. Maybe it will work. I doubt it.

I plan on buying a S&!+load of them and not lend them to the converted, but to Liberals, Swishy Moderates, Political Agnostics and Republicans, especially the thin veneer ones still enamored with Romney who do not read the stitches on the fast ball like we do here on FR...

That will make all the difference in the world...

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

My FRiends will be along shortly to show you.

[BuffaloJack]

My Opinions:
PERRY-———probably a good candidate; the USA loves presidents from Texas
ROMNEY———not a chance. summed up in one word: RINO
PALIN-———Reagan in a skirt. best chance for the country to find its way out of socialism. I’d vote for her above all others.
GIULIANI——less of a chance than ROMNEY: also a RINO
BACHMANN——Palin without the experience.

[techno]

The Undefeated is part of Sarah Palin’s unconventional strategy but to be fair and objective, Palin had absolutely no part to play in the concept, development, filming, final editing or release of the movie except I believe to alert her friends and family that Stephen Bannon would be calling them up sometime down the road for background info.

Palin was not even interviewed for the movie and although she is the “star” of the movie, she is not interviewed by Bannon at anytime during the 2 hour film.

It is for this reason the movie can be released on DVD and not jeopardize Palin’s campaign and I believe cause her to run afoul of the FEC.

In other words Palin had to rely on or have faith in Stephen Bannon (and his company) that he would not botch her record or make her look foolish and unworthy of being President.

By all accounts, he did a wonderful job.

[wtc911]

The Undefeated is a game changer? It couldn’t even stay in as few as four theaters. Nobody cares anymore (except the true believers). Time and tide wait for nobody.

[Louis Foxwell]

And, for the record: I think with my own brain.

Some things are best kept off the record.

[wtc911]

You do realize that your interpretation of palin’s(tm) use of The Undefeated is virtually an accusation that she is intentionally subverting the law, don’t you?

[techno]

Look, The Undefeated is not only going to be shown in theaters but distributed through Wal-Mart.

Objectively a hell of a lot of white working and middle class folks shop at Wal-Mart and are going to buy the DVD.

I think you are being a bit facetious because a person of the 21st century you know as well as I do, that there are many avenues from which a movie can be released to the general public and eventually seen.

By the way have you ever heard of the concept of the House party? Popularized by network marketing companies like Amway or Tupperware, it is a way The Undefeated can shown in more intimate settings without having to get dressed up or spend $10+ to see a movie.

Sure it is unconventional but this type of marketing works. As a former Amway distributor I have seen it work firsthand.

And before the jokes come, the host or hostess of the house party is inviting folks over to view The Undefeated and not to sell them Amway products.