Posted on 08/10/2011 9:32:20 PM PDT by techno
Marist-McClatchey came out with a head to head poll today showing President Obama beating Sarah Palin by 21 points (56-35). Here is basically how MM arrived those numbers:
------------ OBAMA PALIN
OVERALL 56(56) 35(30)
DEMS 86(86) 11(10)
GOP 23 (22) 60(66)
INDEPEND 48(52) 42(28)
MODERATE 63(63) 26(19)
CONSERV 29(36) 64(49)
MEN 46(54) 45(28)
WOMEN 64(58) 28(33)
Brackets mid-June 2011
Analysis and conclusions:
1)To prove any poll of this type is bogus you need to start with the President's recent overall job approval numbers:
Gallup daily tracking poll today: 41%
Rasmussen daily tracking poll today: 43%
CNN (released yesterday) 44%
Reuters/Ipsos (released today) 45%
In addition Rasmussen has also polled the same question with LIKELY VOTERS over the last several months and concluded that Obama is NOT getting above 50% against any potential GOP nominee, declared or undeclared.
Furthermore the most recent Gallup weekly summary has Obama's job approval with WHITE voters at the low-water mark for his presidency at 33% and don't forget WHITE voters represent roughly 75% (3/4)of the electorate.
Even assuming Obama receives 80% of the non-white vote in 2012 as he did in 2008 (even Ruy Teixeria a Democratic pollster feels that is highly unlikely in 15 months) that gives him 20% of the overall vote. To reach 56% overall, 36% of Obama's vote would therefore come from WHITES, which if you do the calculations, Obama would have to get roughly 47%-49% of the WHITE vote against Palin which appears very unlikely as traditionally one's re-elect number in a demographic invariably is a point or two lower than the approval number. To jump from 33% to the high 40's is unrealistic especially with Obama only getting 43% of the WHITE vote in 2008.
Just to give you an indication of what may happen in 2012, let's assume Obama still manages to convince 3/4 of the non-white voters to vote for him and Obama manages to convince 37% of WHITE voters to also support him (the same percentage as supported the Democrats in 2010) and assuming a 75% WHITE, 25% non-white breakdown in 2012 here is the share of the vote Obama would get:
75 x 25= 18.75% (non-white)
37 x 75= 27.75% (white)
Total 46.50%
Now let's assume Obama only gets 36% of the WHITE vote:
75 x 25= 18.75% (non-white)
36 x 75= 27.00%
Total 45.75%
Now let's assume Obama only gets 72% of the non-white vote and the WHITE share of the electorate is 75.5% (it was 77% in 2010):
72 x 24.5 17.64%
36 x 75.5 27.18%
Total 44.82%
I think where you can see where this is headed. There is no way based on the current political and economic environment that Obama could come anywhere close to getting 56% of the overall vote against Palin or anyoe else.
And remember in a two-party race it is a zero-sum game so Palin would end up with roughly 51% to 53% of the popular vote depending on the turnout of WHITE voters and she would therefore win the 2012 election comfortably.
One other thing about the WHITE vote. The Democrats lost the WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTE (non-college grads) to the GOP in 2010 by a 63% to 33% margin. Palin's strength in the national and GOP primary polls is amongst this demographic. In addition Obama lost these folks to Hillary by a two to one margin in the 2008 primaries. Ruy Texeira doesn't see Obama narrowing this 30 point margin with these folks anytime soon.
2)And as I have pointed out often the Rasmussen healthcare poll has shown for the past 18 months that on average 54% of LIKELY VOTERS favor repeal of Obamacare and about 39% oppose repeal. For Obama to get 56% of the overall vote against Palin 1/3 of these folks who favor repeal would have to cut their own throats or sabotage their own positions to cross over and vote for Obama who we all know opposes the repeal of Obamacare. That is virtually impossible.
3)Now if there is a more egregious number than the 56% of the overall vote Obama would receive against Palin, it is the 60% of the vote MM says Palin would receive from her own party.
And by the way MM shows Mitt Romney receiving 87% of the GOP vote against Obama.
Let's begin with John McCain. I wish I had a dollar for every post I have read at FR over the last three years that folks on our side only voted for McCain because of Palin on the ticket but the facts are despite lukewarm response to McCain by many many conservative Republicans, he, according to the 2008 exit polls, still got 90% of the GOP vote.
And on June 13/2011 Rasmussen came out with a poll stating that 83% of Republican primary voters were then prepared to vote for the GOP nominee regardless if their preferred choice lost in the primaries or not. And only 7% would vote for Obama. (60-23) vs (83-7): a net difference of +39. Do you think that turnaround alone might make a significant difference to the overall spread between Obama and Palin?
Bottom line: There is no way in hell in this political and economic climate that any GOP nominee is only getting the vote of 6 of 10 party members in 15 months.
4) And we're supposed to believe that Sarah Palin, a Reagan conservative, would get less than 2/3 of the vote of conservatives and Obama, a confirmed Marxist would get nearly 30% of their vote. That proposition is insane.
First in 2010, only 13% of conservatives voted for the Democrats and 84% for the GOP house candidates.
So "Tea party terrorists" are planning "to pal around with Obama" in and after 2012 and in so doing betray the cause they have worked so hard to build over the last two and one-half years. I'm not buying that for one second.
And finally on March 29/2011 Rasmussen found in a poll on ANGER, that 89% of conservatives self-identify as at least somewhat angry at the federal government and its policies (code words for Obama). Doesn't sound like these folks are ready to embrace the Messiah anytime soon, especially with what happened in the debt ceiling debate.
5)And finally MM is reporting that Obama would receive 64% of the FEMALE vote in 2012 against Palin (he got 56% of it against McCain). Who did MM poll? Mostly A/A and Hispanic women who are huge supporters of Obama. Because they couldn't have polled many WHITE WOMEN because AP-GfK on June 22/2011 reported that only 37% of WHITE WOMEN felt that Obama deserved re-election.
In addition the most recent Gallup weekly summary showed Obama is only receiving the approval of 43% of all females. So how magically does the Messiah get to 64%? By MM pulling the numbers out of a hat? That;s an awful lot of 'white guilt" to conger up.
6)Finally despite the MM narrative, Palin has made significant progress against Obama in several categories:
INDEPENDENTS +18
MODERATES +7
CONSERVATIVES +22
MEN +25
And this happened over a period of 6 weeks despite MM trying their level best to establish a negative narrative about Sarah Palin.
In summary, the more desperate Palin's enemies get the more ridiculous and fanciful their numbers become.
I cut and pasted Sarah’s latest Facebook post into an email - without including her name anywhere - and sent it to a died in the wool liberal. The email I got back basically accused me of not agreeing with some of what was in the article (which isn’t true). So, he didn’t disagree with what she said. I’m waiting for him to ask me who wrote it. He appears to be a Sarah fan without knowing it.
Describe her accomplishments and integrity without naming her, and you would be surprised at the number of people who keep asking “and who is that?” I don’t tell them, or I lie and keep saying stuff like “and he took out the corruption in his own party too”. Her name has been so thoroughly slandered that many people’s programming by the MSM gets triggered.
The msm should be very afraid.
The MSM and their RAT friends would rather see the US burn than it be turned back into a happy productive society by a Republican - and especially one named Sarah.
They are despicable.
Sarah inspires me! If she doesn’t run I’ll be very sad but will understand as I think she and her family would be in great personal danger.
We are all in great personal danger.
What Good Can a Handgun Do Against An Army?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2312894/posts
The 29% “Conservatives” who would vote for 0bambi need a serious session in the woodshed.
29% of idenetified “conservatives” will vote for Obama?
Do those 29% know what a Conservative is?
ALL the pollsters are anti Palin! She will never lead a poll, but will win the White House if she wants it! That`s all we have to keep in mind.
Meanwhile Crazy eyes is falling fast, much of her support was manufactured by the pollsters anyway!
Just heard a report on the news about Palin attending the Iowa Straw Poll. The talking head went to great lengths to make it clear that she’s just trying to stay relevant, and in no way is she running.
He must have an egg-proof face.
HIGHLY unlikely Obama will do that well. While he has lost little of his black support (because he's still black and that's the only issue in that cohort), Hispanics have been fleeing Obama like rats off a sinking ship. Big gains for serious conservative Republican Hispanics Rubio, Martinez (NM Governor), Sandoval(NV Governor) and a passel of House seats have also raised the "respectability factor" for voting GOP in Hispanic areas. Tea Partier Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 in a state that is over 50% Hispanic.
Want to get AA upgraded to AAA? At least two Gop governors have done that. Sarah Palin is one of them.
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