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In case y’all missed it, the boss-lady was up at 2am, forwarding the latest NHC data.

Nauti’s still earning her stripes.

Ahhh...missed it by 7 miles. Musta been that eastern turn they were calling for.

;-)

I was checkin the old eyes for cracks. Beef veggie soup and brownies contributed to my delinquincy.

What speed did the winds max out at? Before or after she came ashore? I had her aimed directly at Perry, or about 8 miles NW of Dekla beach at around 0300. Where did landfall actually end up?

The eyewall was weird around 2-ish. West side kept splitting into two layers, transforming energy from the inner to the outer, but each time it re-merged into one band on the south side instead of going fully ERC.

I made brownies. :-)

Phat fingers. Mine get that way too.

I’ll believe AI is a reasonable threat when the big iron can predict the weather right at least 72 hours out.

I made brownies. I made several gallons of beef vegetable soup. Need to go get some Tupperware and freeze it.

My house (studio) is torn completely...well...97.3 percent, this control room is still functional... apart, to swap a mixing console Sweetwater warned me not to buy, for 32 of the thickest, richest old-school analog Midas pre-amps ever manufactured, the chainsaw is in-op, the half of the 70 foot tree a storm dropped on a neighbor’s fence is cut and stacked, but the remaining half that had to come down is yet to go, and the grass is a bit taller than I’d like, but life is good here now.

How’s your world?

Who won, you or the dog?

EMS confirmed tornado on the western edge of Avon Park ion Highlands Co, about 0145. Healthy feeder band moving up the center of the peninsula.

Possibly but it’s a timing thing. This may peak at or after landfall, in which case, yes the ERC helped the beach area, but nailed the bits further inland.

Latest discussion (11PM) has wind peaking at or just after landfall...115 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST
24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

958.

Eyewall went from 80 degrees of +50 DBZ (red) precip at 1 am to 180+ by 0200.

At one point the algo showed half inch hail...or else intense rain. Peaks of 56 DBZ.

If the last half hour’s eastward component is a wobble, it is a substantial one. Fully half the eywall diameter off the earlier track now.

Not crystal clear yet, hut the western eyewall looks to be in early ERC.

Jonesing for chocolate now. Or some popsicles. I may go make brownies. Nearest open store at 2 am here is probably 25 miles. Not counting gas stations.

Ahem...

That was The Indianapolis Blizzard of 78... we had wind chills to minus 65. Cleveland was just in a feeder band.

;-)

Somehow I just don’t see you excited over a thread about... Hillary.

:-)

There were a cluster of buildings at the foot of the lighthouse, but I can’t even see foundations now. Radical changes to the beach as well.

Elsewhere on Sanibel and Captiva, there are areas where visible damage on overhead imagery is so light, that both Cedar Dave and I originally thought there was a mistake, and pre-storm imagery had been posted. You have to really zoom in to find it.

Since we know the surge made it to Periwinkle Way, on the spine of the island, a lot of sheetrock, and insulation will need replaced, and my guess is that the whole US will be hurting for window glass replacements, but overall, structural damage west of the causeway seems light. A few buildings down here and there, and fewer still missing.

Not at all like Ft. Myers Beach.

Maybe... to be expected. Before the computer models got as good as they’ve become, my rough model for surge forecasting was zero to minimal at center and left of the eyes’ landfall, out to a maxima at landfall of the right eyewall, then tapering down to minimal, 2 to 3 radii out.

Geography and geometry always play a role, but in general, that’s what I see here, too. Huge storm, very powerful, and long lasting, but it didn’t ramp up to cat 5 level till shortly before landfall, and the widespread 25+ foot surge it might have sent in, didn’t have time to build up.

The power curve has me guessing. Ian ramped up after Cuba relatively slowly. That jump to cat 4/5 mostly happened at night, and then landfall failed to knock it down as rapidly as I expected.

Best guess... a pocket of exceptionally warm water just before the core started coming ashore?

At a gig, limited bandwidth of many varieties, but quick scan says Sanibel and at least the Blind Pass end of Captiva dodged a bullet. (Copyright jeffers, 2022, I just made this phrase up all by myself... ;-))

Gap in the eyewall?

Ft. Myers Beach and points east and south, obviously not. Lighthouse area and causeway, some sand moved around.

First floor sheetrock/insulation needs replaced... maybe second too. MUCH trash.

No new breaches. No wall of debris, no missing neighborhoods, no... bare sand.

There’s a breach on the second causeway landing that I hadn’t seen earlier. Both high sections... look.. intact.

Devil’s in the details.

Early yet, but I’m not bumming over anything seen yet on those two islands. Not compared to what.. probably... should.. have been.

Thx.

Some error there, but my time is tight atm. Mainly causeway, causeway, causeway...

Landing A isn’t gone, there’s a 300 to 500’ breach. Doesn’t look too deep but who knows. The rest could be open in 30 days if motivated and unemcumbered by red tape, bid process, competing priorities, pork, etc.

Somebody... COE best guess, fished up 17 slab spans and reset them, then cut the ribbon in 2.5 weeks, on the NOLA/Lake P. Causeway after Katrina.

Dozers and pans already ON the McG/tollbooth approach, as of crack-o-dawn Thur.

We’ll see.

Eyewall replacement cycle and shallow water and maybe magic, busted up the right side eyewall well before Charlotte Bay landfall.

That gap is the biggest part of what passed over Sanibel.

Dot.gov is spoon feeding us, so far. Sad music sheriff aerials, with zero location data... and scary words. Biblical, catastrophic, etc. Selling soap flakes, reaching for Fed $$, no solid info yet.

A few anecdotal snippets. Causeway island breach..SE to NW flow regime. Steel Lighthouse intact, on decimated SE point, two woodframe structures gone, one foundation remains, one MIA.

I have family about to commit Hari-Kari, radar data showing greens and light yellows at worst eyewall passage, the main (protective?) axis of the island in line with the causeway breach and sand spills, and a coupla pix with 99.9 percent of wood frames on Sanibel.. missing shingles.

Outside the lighthouse base...maybe 0.1%... “biblical.”

Typically dot-gov shoots gridded aerials, but I have gigs this weekend. Starting like 30 minutes ago, thru Colts kickoff Sunday.

Any links to those aerials, or any other comprehensive data on greater Sanibel... will ease a fair bit of friction on my end.

TIA.

Glad to hear you’re ok. Did the... ahh... critical supplies...survive?

:-)

This site says Lake P. causeway lost 17 spans and was open 2.5 weeks after Katrina.

https://www.worldatlas.com/places/lake-pontchartrain-causeway.html

This link says the US 90 Bay St. Louis bridge had to be replaced, which took 21 months. Pictures indicate it lost a lot more than 17 spans, and another site indicates there were structural problems with the piers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_Bay_Bridge