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Jerome Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs
CNBC ^ | 07/01/2025 | Alex Harring

Posted on 07/01/2025 6:45:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have eased monetary policy by now if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.

When asked during a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again this year had Trump not announced his controversial plan to impose higher levies on imported goods earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.”

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

Powell’s admission comes as the Fed has entered a holding pattern on interest rates despite mounting pressure from the White House.

The Fed last month held the key borrowing rate steady once again, keeping fed funds at the same range between 4.25% and 4.5% where it’s been since December.

The central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicated via its so-called dot plot of members’ projections that there could be two cuts by the end of 2025. However, Powell also said at a press conference last month that the Fed was “well positioned” to remain in a wait-and-see mode.

On Tuesday, Powell was asked if July would be too soon for markets to expect a rate cut. He answered that that he “really can’t say” and that “it’s going to depend on the data.” Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a more than 76% likelihood that the central bank once again holds rates steady at the July policy gathering, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“We are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said during Tuesday’s panel. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table...

(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government
KEYWORDS: feds; inflation; interestrates; powell; searchandfind; searchworks; tariffs; taxesandtariffs
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1 posted on 07/01/2025 6:45:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The Fed would have reduced rates by now if he hadn’t been a vindictive bastard.


2 posted on 07/01/2025 6:46:51 PM PDT by mass55th (“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.” ― John Wayne)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Jerome Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs”

########################

Eccl 10:2 confirms that Jerome Powell is FOS.


3 posted on 07/01/2025 6:53:53 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: SeekAndFind
The key word: "forecasts". Not on empirical data, but what their "expert" predictions told them.

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

4 posted on 07/01/2025 6:54:27 PM PDT by Tell It Right (1 Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, >>less than expected<<”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/cpi-inflation-may-2025.html

.

“and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.”

Prog forecast it UP.
Reality is it’s DOWN.

Normalcy has been achieved.

.


5 posted on 07/01/2025 6:58:15 PM PDT by TLI (ITINERIS IMPENDEO VALHALLA)
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To: SeekAndFind

Powell is nothing more than a politic al hack.


6 posted on 07/01/2025 6:59:38 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Other countries aren't cutting because they are in wonderful shape. Many countries have made cuts because their economy sucks.

Powell is wise to not allow the dollar to be completely destroyed at this point. Any cuts will likely boost asset inflation higher pushing homes even more unaffordable.

Trump has already said that if inflation returns, we can simply raise rates again, etc. However, once that inflation spirit rises, its hard to tame.

7 posted on 07/01/2025 7:01:28 PM PDT by Theoria
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To: mass55th
I suspect that more than that is going on. Many banks are in trouble due to loans gone sour. Hoping to sell or otherwise work down their bad loans, these banks park their excess funds in the short term market or with the Fed in their master account for a relatively high and safe rate of return.

If the Fed drops the interest rate, at least some of these banks will be fatally impaired when revenues from such safe lending fall and can no longer cover the losses and imputed decline in the value of their overall loan portfolio. Many obscure loan assets ought to be marked down already, but the examiners seem to be going easy on the banks.

What Powell does not want is for this cauldron of trouble to tip over on his watch as Fed Chairman. He hopes for the problem to ease enough to make a clean get away at the end of his term.

8 posted on 07/01/2025 7:10:33 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: SeekAndFind

Jerome Powell confirms he is a Deep State, Globalist hack.

Like we needed confirmation.

Tarrifs were announced two months ago, where is the uncertainty?


9 posted on 07/01/2025 7:15:12 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: Rockingham
"What Powell does not want is for this cauldron of trouble to tip over on his watch as Fed Chairman."

So to protect his reputation and legacy, he'll let the economy go to shit to keep some banks floating.

10 posted on 07/01/2025 7:19:32 PM PDT by mass55th (“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.” ― John Wayne)
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To: SeekAndFind

“... if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan”

... if not for President Donald Trump’s existence. The guy isn’t even clever with his sabotage to undermine Trump. It’s in your face.


11 posted on 07/01/2025 7:31:13 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam (It's hard not to celebrate the fall of bad people. - Bongino)
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To: mass55th

More or less. In fairness to Powell and others in on it though, sometimes the economy nevertheless does well enough to solve or at least substantially diminish the problem. And if that happens, a recession and large bank bailouts can still be avoided.


12 posted on 07/01/2025 7:35:31 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: SeekAndFind; All

When people can’t be fired…


13 posted on 07/01/2025 7:51:17 PM PDT by wiseprince (Me)
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To: Theoria; GOPJ; Political Junkie Too; Eleutheria5

The only Trump actions contributing to inflation I can remember were the stimulus payments, which Powell recommended.


14 posted on 07/01/2025 7:57:36 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Re-imagine the media!)
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE

“Powell is nothing more than a politic al hack.”

He acts like he doesn’t understand that Trump can make his life miserable in many ways.


15 posted on 07/01/2025 8:06:12 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam (It's hard not to celebrate the fall of bad people. - Bongino)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
'The only Trump actions contributing to inflation I can remember were the stimulus payments, which Powell recommended.'

I wasn't referring to his 2020 covid response, which was more than mere stimmie payments and other gimmies.

But, his recent comments more simply raising rates again if inflation returns:

“Let’s say there was inflation. In a year from now, raise your rates. I don’t mind, raise your rates. I’m all for it. I’ll be the one to be calling you,”

16 posted on 07/01/2025 8:25:24 PM PDT by Theoria
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To: SeekAndFind

LIAR


17 posted on 07/01/2025 8:25:46 PM PDT by ridesthemiles (not giving up on TRUMP---EVER)
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To: Theoria
Thanks for the reply. My point is that Trump has a good record in general of low inflation, especially compared to Biden and I believe Kamala too would have been awful.

Sometimes Trump announces he wants to do something and decides not to do it. Would cutting rates at this time be dangerous? Difficult question. Lost of moving parts.

18 posted on 07/01/2025 8:54:04 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Re-imagine the media!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rates need to remain where they’re at and tariff policy needs to be cemented with trading nations at 10%.


19 posted on 07/01/2025 9:16:01 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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To: MayflowerMadam

The people that control Powell just don’t care.powell is an expendable pawn.


20 posted on 07/01/2025 9:41:25 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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