Free Republic

I have been saying this for a while now, but I think the Federal Reserve is fighting a mythical “boogeyman” that doesn’t exist. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed wants “greater confidence” that inflation is cooling. And not just in headline numbers, but in core services and housing, where inflation has remained stubbornly sticky. So, the Fed’s decision to hold key interest rates steady last week was no surprise. And it wasn’t a shock either to learn that they are still in “wait-and-see” mode. But as I mentioned in a Market 360 article last week, I think they’re...

Is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman trying to sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid? It’s quite possible. The Saudi leader, known as MBS, has made clear his disdain for President Biden, and his fury over insults lobbed at him by this White House. He is a powerful force behind the current surge in oil prices, which could — if sustained — contribute to Biden’s defeat. Oil prices are soaring — up 19 percent since the start of the year. Since they lag behind crude oil, gasoline prices have only jumped 14 percent so far. But, unless oil markets take a...

The Federal Reserve is set to extend its pause on interest rate cuts on Wednesday amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs will unleash fresh inflationary pressures while also hurting growth, a tricky combination that could lead to painful trade-offs for the central bank. A decision to stand pat would keep interest rates at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, a level reached in December after a series of cuts in the second half of 2024. Fed officials are in wait-and-see mode for now. They are closely tracking the incoming data for signs that consumer prices are rising again after a multiyear...

As RedState reported earlier, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) did an interview on "Meet the Press" Sunday, where he dropped facts on Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) on the issue of whether suspected MS-13 gang member Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was deported to El Salvador in March, had been afforded due process."In my judgment, [Van Hollen] is utterly and gloriously wrong," Kennedy told host Kristen Welker. "I mean, most of this gauzy rhetoric is just rage bait. Unless you’re next-level obtuse, you know that Mr. Garcia is never coming back to the United States ever," he also remarked."The other point I...

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year, looking to prop up an already struggling economy that will take a large hit from US tariffs. The bank announced a cut of one-quarter of a percentage point, which brings its benchmark deposit rate down from 2.5% to 2.25%. The move will immediately benefit tracker mortgage customers and put downward pressure on other rates. The ECB has been lowering borrowing costs as post-pandemic price pressures retreat and recent trade-related turmoil on global markets is adding to the case for further policy easing. […] While US...

While President Trump projected confidence, the White House was haunted during the latest round of tariff turmoil by the possibility of a “bond market death spiral.” Having worked as a venture capitalist before entering politics, Vice President J.D. Vance had previously regarded the phenomenon as one of his greatest concerns. A plunging stock market took center stage, but it was another sell-off that alarmed Wall Street. Ahead of the tariff deluge, investors offloaded government securities, sending the yield on Treasury bonds ever higher. Amidst the trade uncertainty, the 10-year Treasury bond climbed to 4.51% while the 30-year hit 5% –...

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries extended heavy losses on Wednesday in a sign investors are selling even their safest assets as a global market rout unleashed by U.S. tariffs takes an unnerving turn towards distress and a dash for the safety of cash. "This is beyond fundamentals right now. This is about liquidity," said Jack Chambers, senior rates strategist at ANZ in Sydney. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the globe's benchmark safe-haven anchor, was up 20 basis points and rising in Asia - a remarkable move in a time zone where it's usually fairly steady. At 4.46% the yield is...

A key Treasury auction this week could test one of the central planks of President Donald Trump's tariff strategy as markets reel amid the largest swings in Treasury yields in more than two decades. President Trump has insisted that his tariff plans, which will impose sweeping levies on goods imported from virtually every nation in the world, paid for by American companies and consumers, will ultimately benefit the domestic economy with lower interest rates even they slow growth and stoke inflation along the way. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, wants to see more evidence of their impact on the world's biggest...

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related. Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This...

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock opened as much as 12% higher on Wednesday after the company announced it would expand into financial services, including cryptocurrency funds and other investment vehicles like customized exchange-traded funds. According to a press release, the company will invest as much as $250 million into the rollout, which will launch under the brand name Truth.Fi. That investment, which is less than a third of the company's total cash pile of $700 million, will be kept under the custody of Charles Schwab. Schwab will also "broadly advise" on investments and strategies. Trump Media, which operates...

Last month, during the thick of the holidays, I found myself in a rare though not totally unprecedented predicament: I wasn’t sure which way to bet on the stock market in the year ahead. In my December column, I told you there were three possible 2025 outcomes – all of them seemingly likely, and to a vexingly similar degree. I also told you that I’d come back to you when I could conclude which is, in fact, the most likely. Well, I’m back – and with an answer that has surprised me in more ways than one. Recall the three...

President Donald Trump said Thursday he would apply pressure for interest rates to fall, paving the way for a possible confrontation with the Federal Reserve as its first rate decision of the year approaches. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told an assembly of global leaders that interest rates both in the US and internationally were too high and that he would call for an instant move toward lower rates. “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” he said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.” Trump...

U.S. stocks finished lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst day in over four months after the Federal Reserve decided to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points but reduced its forecast for further rate cuts in 2025. The Dow fell 1,123.03 points, or 2.6%, to end at 42,326.87. The blue-chip index fell for a 10th straight session, logging its longest losing streak since October 1974, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 was off 178.45 points, or nearly 3%, to finish at 5,872.16. The large-cap index suffered its largest one-day...

Biggest loosening in 14 years likely just the beginning as Beijing braces for Trump’s sky-high tariffs to comePresident Xi Jinping says he has “full confidence in achieving this year’s economic growth target” and in China “continuing to play its role as the world’s largest economic growth engine.” Global markets seem less sure, though. Pledges this week for bold new stimulus steps by China’s Politburo barely got global investors’ attention. On Monday, Beijing

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank deeper into the history books on Wednesday, with the storied index on track for its 10th straight losing day following a disappointing rate outlook by the Federal Reserve. The Dow lost 624 points, or 1.4%, on track for its worst losing streak since an 11-day slide in 1974. The 30-stock average posted a nine-day losing streak on Tuesday, its longest since 1978. The S&P 500 lost 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.9%. The central bank reduced its overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as...

Valley investor David Sacks will serve as President-elect Donald J. Trump’s new artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto czar, advising the White House on the two critical emergent technologies. Sacks was an early backer of Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) during the 2024 Republican presidential primary but later jumped ship as the campaign struggled, eventually backing Trump’s bid to retake the White House.A close ally of technology and space exploration mogul Elon Musk, Sacks, too, hails from South Africa. He was born in Cape Town before his parents emigrated to Tennessee. In 1999, Sacks—then a business consultant with McKinsey & Company—joined the...

In Amsterdam attacks on Israeli fans after a soccer match involving a visiting Israeli team... The US Federal Reserve Board lowering the key interest rate .25 percent... In Israel completion of the cabinet shuffle with "Right" politician Gideon Sa'ar becoming Foreign Minister... In Argentina three people charged...death of One Direction singer Liam Payne... President-Elect Donald Trump appointing campaign manager Susie Wiles as his Chief of Staff... Six US Senators including Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina want the International Criminal Court to delay any arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister... US politics the Associated Press projected Elissa Slotkin Democrat winner...

On Friday’s broadcast of Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein stated that bond market interest rates and mortgage rates have increased and that’s partially due to “the stronger economy” under President Joe Biden, but “I also think there’s a policy element going on in that spread, in that interest rate. And I think it has to do with the idea that one of the candidates is talking about massive tariffs — acting as a sales tax on the middle class –, massive deportations — terrible idea for the labor market –, and compromising...

Michelle Bowman, who advocated for 25 basis points of rate cut, believes moving at measured pace will ensure bringing inflation down to 2%Michelle Bowman, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said Friday she views the central bank's jumbo interest rate cut as a "premature declaration of victory" on inflation. Bowman, who was the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee voting for a 25 basis points of rate cut instead of 50 basis points, said core inflation remains above 2.5%. "We have not yet achieved our inflation goal," she said in a statement. "I see...

The six one-offs that drove growth and pulled the global economy out of bubble-bust recessions for the past 30 years have all reversed or dissipated. Absent these one-off drivers, the global economy is stumbling off the cliff into a deep recession without any replacement drivers. Colloquially speaking, the global economy is toast.Here are the six one-offs that won't be coming back:1) China's industrialization.2) Growth-positive demographics.3) Low interest rates.4) Low debt levels.5) Low inflation.6) Tech productivity boom.Cutting to the chase, China bailed the world out of the last three recessions triggered by credit-asset bubbles popping: the Asian Contagion of 1997-98, the...