Free Republic

Perhaps the only thing that might stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in a few weeks would be a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report. Just don’t count on it. Hiring has slowed sharply since the spring after the Trump administration launched the biggest trade wars in decades. Even with those trade disputes dying down, businesses have been slow to add new employees. The U.S. economy added an average of only 35,000 new jobs from May through July, marking the smallest three-month increase since the pandemic in 2020. Wall Street isn’t expecting a big uptick in August, either. A...

The job market is on such shaky ground that the Federal Reserve may soon need to cut interest rates to support the economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday at a key central banking forum. In one of his most consequential speeches, Powell suggested the labor market could benefit from lower rates, which the Fed has kept unchanged for eight straight months. “Downside risks to employment are rising,” Powell said in prepared remarks for his keynote speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He said the possibility of Trump’s tariffs having...

Markets had been nearly certain the Fed would cut rates in September, but fresh producer price data are weakening those odds ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While investors still see an 85% chance of a cut, Bank of America now expects rates to hold, warning tariffs and sticky inflation could keep policy tighter for longer. Analysts will be eyeing the back end of this week for the market-moving news. Analysts have long priced in a number of cuts to the base rate in 2025. With just a handful of meetings left to go this year, September has...

NEW YORK (AP) — A top official at the Federal Reserve said Saturday that this month’s stunning, weaker-than-expected report on the U.S. job market is strengthening her belief that interest rates should be lower. Michelle Bowman was one of two Fed officials who voted a week and a half ago in favor of cutting interest rates. Such a move could help boost the economy by making it cheaper for people to borrow money to buy a house or a car, but it could also threaten to push inflation higher. Bowman and a fellow dissenter lost out after nine other Fed...

What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.

The two Federal Reserve governors who dissented from the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady this week said they did so, in part, because they worried about the health of the labor market. “While the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed,” Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said in a statement posted on the central bank’s website.

In a rare Presidential visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters, President Donald Trump publicly pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver sharp interest rate cuts while criticizing the central bank's $2.5 billion renovation project. What Happened: On Thursday, Trump once again pushed for a rate cut, saying, “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” while standing next to Powell during a tour of the Fed’s headquarters, which is currently under renovation, according to a Reuters report. This visit comes just days before the Fed's rate-setting committee meeting, where the central bank’s 19 policy-makers are widely expected to hold benchmark interest...

There are several reasons why Jerome Powell should be fired or forced to resign:Powell pretends he cares about budget deficits and inflation, but the cost for the Federal Reserve building renovations surged $700 million past the initial budget, or almost 40%:The Federal Reserve has defended itself from White House criticism that ongoing, costly renovations at the central bank’s headquarters in Washington are the result of mismanagement.Last week, Russel Vought, the director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, said the Fed was turning its headquarters into a ‘palace.’ The cost of the renovation has risen to $2.5 billion,...

Russia has more potential agricultural area than anywhere else in the world but it has run out of potatoes and onions. Even President Vladimir Putin conceded there is a problem. "It turns out we are short of potatoes," he recently said, noting the lack of sugar beet and some other vegetables too. That came after the price of potatoes soared in Russian shops, almost tripling within the last year, according to official figures. Meanwhile the price of onions has doubled. Cabbage is now 50% more expensive than it was a year ago, says statistics agency Rosstat. Russians had to pay...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have eased monetary policy by now if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.When asked during a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again this year had Trump not announced his controversial plan to impose higher levies on imported goods earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.” “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at European...

I have been saying this for a while now, but I think the Federal Reserve is fighting a mythical “boogeyman” that doesn’t exist. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed wants “greater confidence” that inflation is cooling. And not just in headline numbers, but in core services and housing, where inflation has remained stubbornly sticky. So, the Fed’s decision to hold key interest rates steady last week was no surprise. And it wasn’t a shock either to learn that they are still in “wait-and-see” mode. But as I mentioned in a Market 360 article last week, I think they’re...

Is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman trying to sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid? It’s quite possible. The Saudi leader, known as MBS, has made clear his disdain for President Biden, and his fury over insults lobbed at him by this White House. He is a powerful force behind the current surge in oil prices, which could — if sustained — contribute to Biden’s defeat. Oil prices are soaring — up 19 percent since the start of the year. Since they lag behind crude oil, gasoline prices have only jumped 14 percent so far. But, unless oil markets take a...

The Federal Reserve is set to extend its pause on interest rate cuts on Wednesday amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs will unleash fresh inflationary pressures while also hurting growth, a tricky combination that could lead to painful trade-offs for the central bank. A decision to stand pat would keep interest rates at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, a level reached in December after a series of cuts in the second half of 2024. Fed officials are in wait-and-see mode for now. They are closely tracking the incoming data for signs that consumer prices are rising again after a multiyear...

As RedState reported earlier, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) did an interview on "Meet the Press" Sunday, where he dropped facts on Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) on the issue of whether suspected MS-13 gang member Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was deported to El Salvador in March, had been afforded due process."In my judgment, [Van Hollen] is utterly and gloriously wrong," Kennedy told host Kristen Welker. "I mean, most of this gauzy rhetoric is just rage bait. Unless you’re next-level obtuse, you know that Mr. Garcia is never coming back to the United States ever," he also remarked."The other point I...

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year, looking to prop up an already struggling economy that will take a large hit from US tariffs. The bank announced a cut of one-quarter of a percentage point, which brings its benchmark deposit rate down from 2.5% to 2.25%. The move will immediately benefit tracker mortgage customers and put downward pressure on other rates. The ECB has been lowering borrowing costs as post-pandemic price pressures retreat and recent trade-related turmoil on global markets is adding to the case for further policy easing. […] While US...

While President Trump projected confidence, the White House was haunted during the latest round of tariff turmoil by the possibility of a “bond market death spiral.” Having worked as a venture capitalist before entering politics, Vice President J.D. Vance had previously regarded the phenomenon as one of his greatest concerns. A plunging stock market took center stage, but it was another sell-off that alarmed Wall Street. Ahead of the tariff deluge, investors offloaded government securities, sending the yield on Treasury bonds ever higher. Amidst the trade uncertainty, the 10-year Treasury bond climbed to 4.51% while the 30-year hit 5% –...

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries extended heavy losses on Wednesday in a sign investors are selling even their safest assets as a global market rout unleashed by U.S. tariffs takes an unnerving turn towards distress and a dash for the safety of cash. "This is beyond fundamentals right now. This is about liquidity," said Jack Chambers, senior rates strategist at ANZ in Sydney. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the globe's benchmark safe-haven anchor, was up 20 basis points and rising in Asia - a remarkable move in a time zone where it's usually fairly steady. At 4.46% the yield is...

A key Treasury auction this week could test one of the central planks of President Donald Trump's tariff strategy as markets reel amid the largest swings in Treasury yields in more than two decades. President Trump has insisted that his tariff plans, which will impose sweeping levies on goods imported from virtually every nation in the world, paid for by American companies and consumers, will ultimately benefit the domestic economy with lower interest rates even they slow growth and stoke inflation along the way. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, wants to see more evidence of their impact on the world's biggest...

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related. Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This...

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock opened as much as 12% higher on Wednesday after the company announced it would expand into financial services, including cryptocurrency funds and other investment vehicles like customized exchange-traded funds. According to a press release, the company will invest as much as $250 million into the rollout, which will launch under the brand name Truth.Fi. That investment, which is less than a third of the company's total cash pile of $700 million, will be kept under the custody of Charles Schwab. Schwab will also "broadly advise" on investments and strategies. Trump Media, which operates...