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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is concerned the US economy could be in for a repeat of the problems that hampered the country during the 1970s. "Yes, I think there’s a chance that can happen again," he said during an appearance Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York. The economy in that troubled decade was constrained by stagflation, a combination of low growth and high inflation, and Dimon said such a risk exists again. "I worry that it looks more like the seventies than we've seen before," he added during a question-and-answer session with Marie-Josee Kravis, chair of...

Month-over-month inflation has been rising on average 0.4% for the past three months and 0.3% for the past six months. If inflation continues to rise at this pace for the rest of the year, then year-over-year core CPI inflation will increase from currently 3.8% to 4% to 4.5%, see chart below. Even if month-over-month increases in core CPI comes in at the historical average of 0.2% for the rest of the year, then year-over-year inflation will still end the year at 3%. To get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, core CPI for the rest of the year...

Congress is facing the most significant and transformational opportunity to strengthen the U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) since the end of World War II. The heritage equipment that the United States has provided to Ukraine for its self-defense in the face of the brazen and illegal invasion by Russian forces in 2022 needs to be replenished to ensure the United States is postured to continue to deter its adversaries. The new hardware will be produced at factories across the nation. Of the $113 billion appropriated by Congress to date related to the conflict in Ukraine, as much as $68 billion...

Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.The EconomyThe economy is a very broad category that encompasses inflation, jobs, unemployment, wages, rent, and housing.Other polls split the economy in various pieces, such as inflation and jobs. Not a single poll mentioned housing specifically.Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds? A: RentThe CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and GasolineThe CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent was up another 0.4 percent with gasoline...

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) blasted the House for passing foreign aid bills, arguing Congress is spending money that “we don’t have” and that the U.S. should be focusing on securing its own borders instead. “We’re gonna further mortgage and plunder our children’s future, over $100 billion,” Johnson said during his Saturday morning appearance on NewsNation. “We spend close to $900 billion on defense, but every time there’s some kind of defense action seems like we need to do a supplemental.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was “personally” grateful to “Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track” after Johnson shepherded a $61 billion Ukraine aid package through the House Saturday. The image of scores of Democrats waving Ukraine flags and cheering on the House floor as the bill passed will forever sting the conservatives from whose ranks Johnson rose, only to serve them with the ultimate betrayal.

One trite Wall Street saying is that copper is the only metal with a PhD in economics. This is because copper is an industrial metal, the demand for which waxes and wanes with economic growth and shrinkage. So falling copper prices can be a sign that economic trouble lies ahead, and the converse is also true. I would argue that copper's more reliable role is as a leading indicator of inflation, as illustrated in this week's chart. It shows the price of copper, shifted forward by 2 months to reveal how the growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)...

Does anyone remember when in 2016, Barack Obama mocked then-candidate Donald Trump over his campaign comments about revitalizing the American economy? Obama painted Trump as a naive and foolish con artist, because this was a complex issue and Trump lacked a “magic wand.” Well, what Obama either didn’t understand, or at least pretended to not understand—an effort to cover over calculated sabotage, no doubt—is that economic prosperity is perhaps one of the easiest things for any developed nation to achieve. It’s as simple as getting the government out of the market—which is exactly what Trump did when he got into...

During an interview with Nexstar Media that took place on Tuesday and was released on Wednesday, President Joe Biden stated that inflation “is being stubborn and not going down to the 2% we need. But, it’s significantly different,” than where it was and “the thing that really affects people’s lives are all the small things that add up to big numbers for people, all these junk fees.” Nexstar Washington Correspondent Reshad Hudson asked, “[R]ight now, for many Americans, life is too expensive. Are you concerned that stubborn inflation will hurt your re-election bid?” Biden responded, “Well, look, we’ve brought down...

@_wake_up_USA 🚨BREAKING: House Speaker Mike Johnson moves forward with a $95 billion dollar aid package, including funds for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. $61 Billion for Ukraine $26 Billion for Israel $8 Billion for Taiwan

The International Monetary Fund sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s rampant spending as “out of line with what is needed for long-term fiscal stability.” The latest forecast from the IMF — a Washington-based group tasked with fighting financial crises worldwide — warned that the ballooning national debt and the fiscal deficit threatened to exacerbate sky-high levels of inflation while posing a long-term risk to the global economy. The IMF noted in its forecast that the US federal budget deficit grew from $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2022 to $1.7 trillion last year. ... The debt held by the public, which...

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Tuesday that America’s recent economic performance is partially the result of the country’s unsustainable fiscal practices, creating risks for the global economy. “The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability,” the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook. “This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks...

Summary Due to high government spending and a series of hot inflation reports, Treasury yields are near 20-year highs, with implications for housing, autos, banks, tech, and the stock market. The potential for much higher yields is supported by theoretical, practical, and historical reasons. We could easily reach 6% for 10-year Treasury yields, 9% for mortgages, and 8% for car loans in 2024. Since late October, large-cap U.S. stocks have seen a furious 25% rally based on the idea that the Fed will soon pivot and dramatically cut interest rates. The move in stocks has been driven almost entirely by...

A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt. ... inflation not tamed ... Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at multidecade highs for .. years to come. The 10-year yield—the benchmark for borrowing rates on everything from mortgages to corporate loans—finished the week around 4.5%... At the same time, the government is poised to sell another $386 billion or so of bonds in May—an onslaught that Wall Street expects to continue no matter who wins November’s presidential election. While few fear a failed auction—an...

An equation to understand the current confusion: National debt = issuance of Treasury bonds = printing dollars (Q.E.), and increasing the supply of money = federal spending. Therefore, national debt = federal spending. It’s the principle of equivalency. All those who work for a living, and who make their own way, pay this debt. The recipients of this spending, like welfare and entitlement beneficiaries and federal subsidies like E.V. credits, ride on the effort of those who work. Corporations don’t pay debt; they increase the price of their products and pass it along to buyers. Bottom line: Every citizen bears...

“Why Inflation Is Biden’s Most Stubborn Political Problem” by Andrew Restuccia and Sam Goldfarb at WSJ was one of those coffee-spilling articles that gave Grumpy his nickname. Not the article, which was well written, but the contents. In response to rising inflation, 'Biden and his senior aides aren’t planning any major policy or rhetorical shifts. They plan to continue talking about the president’s proposals to lower the cost of housing and prescription drugs, while slashing student-loan debt and eliminating surcharges tacked on to everything from concert tickets to banking services.' The most simple and pleasurable lessons of economics show you...

Let’s check in on the not exactly impressive energy and inflation results of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)...Data from the BLS, chart by MishBiden’s energy policy has been an inflationary disaster. And make no mistake, the IRA was nothing but energy policy, more precisely, climate policy.The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate BillBloomberg flashback, August 15, 2022: The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill. Just Don’t Call It One.“It does seem kind of wacky and counterintuitive for the most consequential climate legislation ever to be called the ‘Inflation Reduction Act,’” says Angela Bradbery, a professor of public interest communications...

We are in an election year. President Biden, a seasoned politician, has failed miserably in tackling inflation and is now attempting to shift blame for "Bidenflation" onto Trump, a move even noted by The New York Times, which dubbed it Biden's Plan B. Commenting on the latest CPI release, President Biden said: We’re better situated than we were when we took office where we— inflation was skyrocketing. And we have a plan to deal with it, whereas the opposition — my opposition talks about two things. They just want to cut taxes for the wealthy and raise taxes on other...

As we approach what is likely to be the most chaotic presidential election in U.S. history, troubling signs are starting to erupt for the U.S. economy. In fact, CNN is actually admitting that “the long-predicted storm clouds in the economy may actually be forming”. I can’t remember the last time that I saw a CNN article with a headline like that. But at this point, it is becoming extremely difficult for the mainstream media to avoid the truth. Inflation is getting worse at the same time that many key sectors of our economy are slowing down. If you thought that...

The Biden-Harris regime should be embarrassed. The latest inflation numbers are out, and they don’t look good. Core inflation – a general inflation estimate tool that leaves out volatile things like gasoline, food and beverages – is up 3.8% per year. And that means that when you add in those cleverly-removed items – you know, all the things you really spend your money on, day in and day out – your real inflation level is still well over 10%. And that’s now, after it’s settled down a bit from the double-digit nightmare levels of the first two years of the...