Free Republic

The U.S. finished the 2026 fiscal year with a budget deficit of nearly $2 trillion, the latest measurement to underscore the extent of the country’s financial stress. The $1.992 trillion figure was about 12% higher than the $1.775 trillion deficit in the prior fiscal year, the Treasury Department reported Friday. It’s the third-highest annual deficit in U.S. history, behind only 2020 and 2021, when the federal government was doling out trillions of dollars in financial stimulus amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The 2026 fiscal year saw record sums for both receipts and outlays, according to a Treasury Department official. With Friday’s...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month following a 2.1-percent increase in August. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The index for food...

September brought little relief to the accelerating cost of living, as consumer prices increased again and kept the inflation rate well above the Federal Reserve’s goal. The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the 12-month rate at 3.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected respective gains of 0.6% and 3.6%. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI rose 0.3% for the month and was up 2.6% on an annual basis, compared to...

That spending increase was primarily driven by entitlement programs, the military, and interest payments on the national debt. The CBO notes that Social Security spending increased by 5 percent last year due to "increases in average benefits and in the number of beneficiaries." There was an 8 percent increase in spending on both Medicare and Medicaid, while military spending increased by 5 percent.

Ten-year interest rates have vaulted from around 4.5 percent in July to nearly 5.3 percent this week. That may not seem like a lot, but in the history of the bond market, such a rapid rise in rates is almost without precedent. The last time it happened was in 1994, when the "bond vigilantes" relentlessly sold bonds in response to Hillary Clinton's vision of "managed competition" in healthcare. The person on the street knows much more about the stock market than the government bond market, but it is the bond market that has the ability to impose fiscal discipline on...

I created this cool app to explain inflation to my kids. I used 1957, the year of my birth. According to the CPI $1 of goods in 1957 cost nearly $12. But look at housing, gold, silver, the Dow, the S&P 500. You will be shocked as I was and this has been my business for 16 years. www.DollarTimeMachine.com

France is on the precipice of a dangerous financial spiral. The global surge in interest rates has exposed the country, once considered an oasis of relative stability in Europe’s financial markets, as one of the continent’s weakest links. France now pays more to borrow than former crisis hot spots like Greece and Italy. Its government is running a budget deficit surpassed only by the United States among its peers. Last week, a slow-burning selloff in France’s government bond market took an alarming turn as it spread across the continent, reviving memories of the eurozone debt crisis last decade. France’s 10-year...

The US debt load crossed $40 trillion in August 2026. The Treasury publishes the number and updates it every business day. $32.4 trillion of it is borrowed from investors, pension funds, and foreign governments. Another $7.7 trillion is owed to the government's trust funds, including the funds that pay Social Security and Medicare. I spent two terms chairing the House Financial Institutions Committee, reading numbers like these, page after page. The pace worried me more than the total ever did. Everyone quotes the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline when they talk about where the debt is headed. CBO is the nonpartisan...

President Donald Trump is once again promising Americans $5,000 checks if Republicans retain control of Congress, repeating a pledge he first made last month as the midterm elections enter their final stretch. At the same time, the administration is already sending out much smaller federal payments, including $90 payments to millions of eligible Medicare beneficiaries and $500 refunds to certain Affordable Care Act customers. That has created an unusual mix of real payments, campaign promises and growing questions about what Americans could actually receive.The distinction matters. While the $90 and $500 programs are already funded and underway, the proposed $5,000...

President Donald Trump said “certain levels of inflation” can reduce the burden of the national debt “very rapidly,” putting a long-running bond-market concern into unusually direct language. The remarks came in a TIME interview conducted Monday and published Thursday, and were reported by the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos. Trump also said Federal Reserve interest-rate policy is hurting the economy more than inflation and blamed high rates for making it harder to reduce federal deficits. “Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly.” Pressed on how Washington could bring down the debt burden, Trump...

The 5 percent barrier has long since been left behind. This week, the yield on 30-year American government bonds hit 5.6 percent, its highest level since way back in 2002, while the cost of ten-year borrowing rose to its highest level in 20 years. However hard the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tries to control it, the interest rate the American government has to pay to finance its vast deficit keeps on rising relentlessly. As it climbs towards 6 percent and perhaps even higher, surely we must soon see a change in the political debate. Three decades of financial complacency will...

You don't have to work on Wall Street to care about Treasury yields. You don't have to own a farm to care about diesel prices. And you don't have to be shopping for a house to care about mortgage rates.Eventually, these numbers have a way of finding all of us.America is entering a period in which several economic warning signs are flashing at the same time. None of them, by itself, proves that a recession or financial crisis is around the corner. In fact, parts of the economy remain remarkably resilient.But taken together, they tell us something important: the financial...

President Donald Trump is searching for ways to ease the affordability squeeze on American households, but nearly every proposal is colliding with another part of the economy.Beef relief risks hurting ranchers. Restricting fuel exports could distort energy markets. A proposed $5,000 payment to American adults would require congressional action and could add enormous new spending power to an economy where inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target.For investors, the bigger story is becoming clear: there may be no quick political fix for an affordability problem being driven at the same time by energy costs, interest rates, inflation and weak purchasing...

Yes, the gas prices are high, but I live in California, where gas prices are always going to be higher than in the rest of the country. I don't blame President Trump, nor do I blame the conflict in Iran. If Iran wasn't trying to blow us up in a nuclear holocaust, then there would have been no reason for the United States to attack them! California shut down two refineries, and they add taxes and fees on top of more taxes and fees. Don’t scream at Trump, blue state residents. Blame your own incompetent state governments! Am I happy...

Apparently, Democrats’ internal polling suggests gas prices won’t be enough to sweep them into power in the Midterms. They may also suggest endlessly mouthing “affordability” isn’t that hot either, which is plausibly why AI, in development for many years, has suddenly become their newest source of imminent doom. Happily, for Americans, it appears AI hysteria isn’t going to work very well either. Americans seem to have learned from the COVID hoax. The other day, I paid $4.17 for gas. That didn’t make me happy, but I know it’s temporary. President Trump’s policies, based in reality and a solid understanding of...

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Democrats are preparing a vast oversight agenda, with investigations of President Donald Trump, his family and his administration if the party sweeps control of the chamber from Republicans in the November elections. The undertaking is as robust as it is daunting, spanning several House committees. With majority power comes bigger budgets and staff, and the ability to investigate, subpoena and potentially course-correct what the Democrats say are widespread corruption and abuses of power. Impeachment of the Republican president and Cabinet officials is not off the table. “There is a cost to the American people of the...

Did you know that recently released Census Bureau statistics show the poverty rate in the United States fell to a record low in 2025? That's an extraordinary development, but it has so far not attracted a lot of media coverage and discussion. What about a big White House event featuring President Donald Trump touting a welcome decline in poverty and increase in income? There hasn't been one. "I dunno, but if I were president and the poverty rate dropped to the LOWEST RATE ON RECORD, I might make a big deal out of it — a lot bigger deal than...

Add it all up, and the future looks more expensive. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that if yields remain more than 80 basis points over baseline projections, the U.S. will spend $2.7 trillion on annual interest payments by the end of the decade—more than Medicare or Social Security retirement benefits. “The real threat is the debt spiral. If interest begets debt, and debt begets interest, eventually debt will spin out of control. A fiscal crisis, once unthinkable, is now a distinct possibility,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the CFRB, said on Monday. The budget watchdog and others have...

The Iran and Ukraine wars have exposed the world’s reliance on the Middle East and Russia for diesel Persian Gulf states and Russia have invested tens of billions of dollars in refineries over the past decade to grab a bigger share of the global diesel market. Now, war in both regions has sent exports plunging, squeezing supplies of a fuel that powers much of the global economy. Diesel prices are soaring—they eclipsed $6 a gallon in the U.S. for the first time last week and have kept climbing, hitting $6.45 on Friday. The surge has rattled governments and markets around...