Free Republic

You are right, we ar far too drugged up people and withdrawals will not be nice should supply suddenly crash

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will continue to have the potential to be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Today contains stuff the past few days while out that caught my eye as being important.

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Globalism / Great Reset –

Illinois has become the first state in the nation to require annual mental health screenings for all schoolchildren beginning in the third grade, under a new law signed by Governor J.B. Pritzker. The initiative, set to take effect in 2027, has sparked heated debate among parents, educators, medical professionals, and privacy advocates. Supporters claim it will provide critical early intervention for struggling children, while critics argue it represents an unprecedented government intrusion into the private lives of families and a potential boon for pharmaceutical companies.

Renowned psychiatrist Dr. Peter Breggin, a prominent critic of mainstream psychiatry, denounced the plan as a pathway to “mass medicalization” of children. He argued that pharmaceutical companies and organized psychiatry are colluding to create new markets by labeling children as mentally ill and prescribing them neuro-toxic drugs with severe side effects. Breggin warned that stigmatizing children with diagnoses could demoralize them and trap them in a lifelong identity as “mental patients.”

Journalist Abigail Shrier, known for exposing what she calls the harmful effects of transgender ideology on youth, also blasted the program. She predicted that large numbers of Illinois children would be falsely flagged as mentally ill and funneled into treatment systems unnecessarily, creating devastating long-term consequences for families and children alike.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2025-08-17-illinois-mandates-schools-test-students-mental-health.html

OBSERVATION - Finger of globalists continue to worm their way into willing elements across the world. In this case, Pritzker has provided an opening. The potential for abuse is pretty clear, even from the initial details. As noted a the link, particularly hard hit will be homeschooled and private schools - a great target for the globalist loving teachers unions and progressive govts.
In the end, expect massive lawsuits to spring out of this action.

***
An investigation conducted by the World Economic Forum’s board on Friday cleared the body’s founder Klaus Schwab and his wife of wrongdoing, after a probe into whistleblower complaints.

“Following a thorough review of all facts, the Board has concluded that ... there is no evidence of material wrongdoing by Klaus Schwab,” the board announced.

In April, the Wall Street Journal reported that an anonymous letter sent to the prestigious institution’s board of directors accused Schwab and his wife Hilde of mixing their personal affairs with Forum resources without proper oversight.

OBSERVATION - The white wash

RELATED -
On 15 August, with the completion of the investigation into Klaus Schwab and his wife Hilde, Brabeck-Letmathe has stepped down from his role as interim Chairman.
On the same day, the World Economic Forum announced the appointment of Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, as interim co-chairman alongside André Hoffmann, Vice Chairman of pharmaceutical and diagnostic giant Roche. This appointment takes effect immediately.

OBSERVATION - New generation of evil doers, particularly with the emplacement of Fink. Both co-chairs have been the hands on elements of the WEF affecting the global economy. Hoffmann - big pharma gets their boy as well.

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CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
Crowds of mostly older whites protested across DC yesterday, demanding that the National Guard leave the city. No significant acts of violence noted, though in some instances protestors got into the face of NG elements and blocked vehicle movements.

Other misc protests notes elsewhere as well. Violence levels remained subdued.

OBSERVATION - The left continues to search for a triggering event to hopefully spring forth a repeat of the Floyd riots. Recent NG call ups have resulted in some protests, but nothing gaining traction. The reported demographics of the DC protests - older white liberals, lacking the presence of the majority of colored classes - is not going to go very far.

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Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

With the majority of the tariffs now fully in place, economists watching closely for inflationary impacts.

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POLITICAL FRONT –

Some Texas democrats are threatening to stay AWOL until Kalifornia’s redistricting has been completed.

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TRUMP Watch –

Big show on today with European leaders and discussion on next step with Russia and Ukraine.

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Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Trying to make heads or tails of the much abbreviated putin/Trump meeting Friday. Theories abound about what was presented / discussed. At the roughest, putin is holding to his June 2024 demands for the surrendering a third of Ukraine to Russia, no NATO membership, and a host of other issues. Zelenskyy ( and european leaders) is unlikely to accept.

Questions of what Trump offered circle around the final surrender of Crimea and a freeze on current lines plus other items.

Trump is meeting with european heads of state, could clarify that these offers are.

Meanwhile, putin appears to have achieved an initial goal of sowing confusion and discord among Ukraine and its supporters, weakening resolve.

If putin gets his demands, there is nothing to prevent him from taking the time to regroup his military and continuing the attack at a later date.

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Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range with a cooling trend towards there end of the period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Most recent - overnight, Russia launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones against Ukraine. Air defense downed or suppressed 88 Shaheds and decoy UAVs across the north, south, east and center. Strikes were recorded at 25 locations in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Kyiv regions.

Russian losses per 18/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+940 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukrainian drones attacked occupied Donetsk at night. Lots of explosions were reported, one big fire could be seen.

Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades liberated the villages of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk region. Russians reportedly suffered heavy losses

Summary —

Peace talks will be on the front burner today and likely the rest of the week. With all the competing views and reports, I have no clue as to which way they will go.

On the ground, local Ukrainian counter attacks have been regaining ground lost over the past week. Further evidence that Russia doesn’t have the capability to exploit and drive deeper.

Russian drone/missile attacks have been relatively low, but with the summit over, I expect some large attacks this week some time

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Europe / NATO General –

These leaders are reported to attend the meetings on the Ukraine war:

- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb
- French President Emmanuel Macron
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutt
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
- Ukraine president Zelenskyy

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ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- More hostage / ceasefire movements.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas terrorist organization negotiators in Egypt have reportedly eased some of the demands that previously derailed hostage talks, an Arab diplomat and an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Friday. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the Arab leader cautioned that despite this shift, significant differences remain between the parties

Arab mediators have since conveyed to Israeli officials that Hamas may have softened its stance. However, Israeli officials reportedly responded that they are no longer interested in a partial agreement. Jerusalem has indicated that Israel will only call off its planned military operation in Gaza City if Hamas meets its key demands.

https://allisraelnews.com/hamas-signals-flexibility-regarding-hostage-talks-israel-insists-terror-group-disarms

RELATED - Hamas has received a new Gaza ceasefire proposal and will respond today, Al-Araby reports. Al-Akhbar says Palestinian factions in Cairo are reviewing Israel’s conditions: Hamas disarmament, exile of leaders, return of all hostages, Israeli security control over 25% of Gaza, and a new government excluding both Hamas and Fatah that recognizes peace with Israel. Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya insists disarmament would only be possible within a political process leading to a Palestinian state.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel’s Defense Minister:
“We are imposing an air and naval blockade on them (Houthi) that is very painful for them, and this morning we attacked infrastructure and energy targets. This is just the beginning. The rest will be strong and painful.”

***
The IDF says air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired at Israel.

***
A missile fired by an Israeli naval vessel struck a Houthi power plant, setting it on fire

Local reports in Yemen indicate that leaders of the Houthis were present in the control room of the power station when it was attacked this morning by the Israeli Navy.
(The Telegraph)

OBSERVATIONS - Houthi influence has been minimal lately. Could be the cumulative effects of the economic strikes taking their toll as there are critical shortages of electricity and drinking water.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The recent hostage/ceasefire rumblings are unlikely to get anywhere in the short term. Evidence that Hamas is losing control over the famine narrative and is trying to play its hostage card in an effort to delay the next phase of Israeli action in Gaza.

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Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

A senior Iranian lawmaker declared that Iran now possesses the capability to strike targets across the globe - including the United States and Canada - using advanced long-range missiles, which he claimed are capable of inflicting devastation equivalent to nuclear weaponry.

“When we say that the Khorramshahr-5 [missile] has been upgraded, and has a range of 12,000 km, a velocity of several Machs, and a 2-ton payload, and that it can hit a target with precision - do you know what this means? It means that the kind of [damage] normally caused by 2-3 nuclear bombs could also be achieved with 10 Khorramshahr-5 missiles. This is deterrence. If the U.S. or Canada or any other country plans to attack you, you can strike them back, [on their soil],” Zohrevand said.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/413442

OBSERVATION - One of Irans long range goals is to develop reliable missiles that can strike the US. The current US defense missile system was designed based on that growing threat.

Another part of the interview notes that Iran is threatening to move some sort of naval asset within range of the US and fire from sea. The potential for a shipping container based missile platform has been one bantered around for many years now and there are prototypes out there. It has been considered to also be a platform for a nuclear weapon, smuggled into the US, hence radiation surveying equipment at US ports.

***
Iran’s Water Resources Management Company:
In 12 important and central dams in Iran for supplying drinking water and agricultural water, the water reserves are below 10%.
(Iran International)

OBSERVATION - Not only facing loss of drinking water but an agricultural disaster as well.

Imagine
- 125 degrees
- no power
- no water

But the ruling mullahs have both.

***
Explosion and large fire at Behran oil storage facility in Baqerabad Refinery, Shahr-e Rey The second explosion at an oil refinery in Iran today (yesterday)

OBSERVATION - Doesn’t have to be sabotage, but conditions are ripe.

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Iraq -

The Iraqi News Agency, citing an advisor to the Prime Minister, reports that the mission of the international coalition forces in Baghdad and at Ain al-Asad base will conclude in September.

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Lebanon -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem threatens civil war, threatens there will be “no life” in Lebanon if the government tries to disarm Hezbollah.
He added that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement were delaying street protests while there is still room for a political resolution.

Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam reiterates slams Hezbollah for threatening civil war, reiterates that no non-state parties in Lebanon are authorized to carry weapons.

Western diplomatic sources responded this evening to threats by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naeem Qassem on the “Al-Jadeed” channel: “Hezbollah must understand that it lost the war and cannot impose its conditions to stop it. Lebanon must commit to an international agenda to gain support and recover.”

OBSERVATION - The potential for a limited civil war remains, however, Hezbollah will continue to face Israeli strikes on weapons and munitions storages sites, harming Hezbollah’s capabilities.

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Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

The new Syrian regime has agreed to allow a humanitarian corridor from Quneitra, near the Israel–Syria border, to the Druze province of As-Suwayda.

OBSERVATION - As previously noted, the Syrian govt has essentially sought to completely isolate the Druze region in S Syria with essentially a blockade. How willing the govt is to keep the route secure is another thing. Special note is the origin near Israel.

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You may need to go farther back - to 9/11 when this themematic show got started

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

No posts - Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18) Well, hopefully I can get a weekend summary out on Monday.

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CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
(FO) Obama-era National Security Council officials Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson said they and other former officials no longer expect U.S. military leaders to resist President Trump’s “misuse” of the military.

NYT editorial FO cites is here -

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-military-power.html

OBSERVATION - Theirs as well as my analysis it the continued attempt to establish a foundation for mobilizing there left even as far as violent actions. The attempt is to delegitimize these NG deployments as an unconstitutional and tyrannical action, necessitating escalated response from the left.

So far, Trump’s NG deployments - LA and now DC have been tightly linked to clear law and use. Newscum’s lawsuit in kalifornia will eventually crash on the rocks and the DC deployment is recognized as legit by many (I’ll say moderate) democrats.

***
The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers are in for July 2025. This is the first month in almost six years that the adjusted NICS numbers estimate less than one million firearm sales.

The adjusted figures, as computed by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), are almost 22,000 sales short of one million at 978,731.
In July of 2024, the NSSF calculated adjusted gun sales of 1,064,791. These figures show an eight percent drop in gun sales from last July. The NICS checks themselves fell by only four percent, from 2,021,235 to 1,936,621. About half of NICS checks are being used for purposes other than firearm sales.

OBSERVATION - With Trump firmly in place and the threatened riots failing to gain traction, the pressure to arm have dropped off. Same seen in ammo prices, now the lowest in years. However, one cannot become complacent and now is a good time to make sure you are competent with your firearms and not wait until SHTF.

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Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group returned home after 269 days at sea, continuing a trend of longer-than-normal deployments for West Coast-based carriers.

***
According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of additional air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean Sea to counter drug cartels operating in Latin America. An official added that the assets committed would include several P-8A “Poseidon” Maritime Patrol and Surveillance Aircraft, as well as at least one warship and an attack submarine, with them to be used not just to carry out intelligence and surveillance operations, but also as a launching pad for targeted strikes if a decision is made by President Trump.

OBSERVATION - Eyebrows raised over the last statement. Remember, Trump reportedly has directed special operation forces to directly engage drug cartel operations / groups in Central and S America.

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POLITICAL FRONT –

A rogue, Biden-appointed judge who had articles of impeachment for corruption filed against him in February had his preliminary injunction preventing Pres. Trump from saving taxpayers billions of dollars lifted by a federal appeals court on Wednesday.

In a 2-1 decision, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia voted to lift U.S. District Judge Amir Ali’s order that the Trump Administration release the full amount of $2 billion of foreign assistance that Congress had appropriated for the 2024 budget year. Judge Florence Pan, also a Biden appointee, cast the lone dissenting vote.

In the majority opinion, Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson noted that the full financial import to taxpayers of lifting Judge Ali’s injunction could be as great as $6 billion:

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/rogue-judges-injunction-blocking-trump-saving-taxpayers-billions-lifted

OBSERVATION - Many decisions like this by activists judges at the district level are being overturned by higher courts on a consistent basis. They are becoming not much more than a speed bump.

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INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Italian officials were warned of possible Russian sabotage at Aviano air base, which hosts US forces and stores nuclear weapons. A female suspect was stopped after allegedly photographing the site. Arson attacks were also reported nearby. An investigation is underway and the PM has been briefed.

https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1956303663900639369

OBSERVATION - If this is true, not the best optics on the day before the big Alaska meeting.

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TRUMP Watch –
Show time in Alaska

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov says no documents are expected to be signed after today’s summit with Trump in Alaska, adding that “nothing was prepared and it’s unlikely there will be a document.” He said Putin will outline any understandings reached at a joint press conference, though Trump has suggested the presser might not happen if the talks go poorly.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1956301038715093024

OBSERVATION - Trump has pulled no punches with other leaders at post meeting pressers, and depending on how much putin ticks him off today, the presser could contain a lot of fireworks, if there is one.

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Illegal Immigration –

Border enforcement under the Trump administration resulted in historic record lows in the month of July, according to the latest data shared by the Trump White House as well as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/08/13/trumps-golden-age-border-enforcement-sees-record-breaking-lows-in-july-lowest-level-ever-recorded/

OBSERVATION - Incredible numbers in such a short period of time.

***
President Donald Trump said Thursday that approximately 275,000 illegal immigrants have been purged from the Social Security database, as well as tens of thousands more beneficiaries over the age of 160 who were still receiving checks.

OBSERVATIONS - Could be the tip of the iceberg IMHO

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Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand

Threat advisory has been removed due to stability in the situation over the past month.

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Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight into Aug 15, Russia launched 97 Shahed/decoy drones and 2 Iskander-M missiles at multiple regions. Ukrainian defenses downed or suppressed 63 drones; missiles and 34 drones hit 13 locations..

Russian losses per 15/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+940 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+40 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 aircraft

Major Ukrainian long-range drone raid into Russia reported tonight, with local channels already reporting impacts in Kursk.
Ukraine has now maintained nearly two weeks of major nightly raids, with tonight’s reportedly the largest so far as warnings go off across western Russia.

Ukrainian drones struck the Russian seaport of Olya on the Caspian Sea, heavily damaging and partially sinking the Port Olya-4, a vessel responsible for transporting key munitions and Shahed drone parts from Iran.

Russia’s JSC “Elastik” explosives plant reportedly suffered a catastrophic explosion this morning, destroying a gunpowder workshop and causing dozens of casualties, per Russian state media.

Ukraine had confirmed strikes at Syzran oil refinery and HQ of 51st army of Russian Armed Forces in Yenakiyeve This is the 8th Russian oil refinery to suffer major damage this month.

The War Zone reports, citing US Defense Intelligence Agency assessments, that Russia has upgraded its Iskander and KN-23 missiles, making Patriot air defense systems less effective. The missiles are now said to carry “radar decoys” and can fly quasi-ballistic trajectories, combining ballistic flight with maneuvering to complicate interception.

Summary —

Ukraine drones were busy overnight and many hits may be on the quiet side as to not embarrass putin in his meeting with Trump today. Russian drone attack levels have been relatively low this past week, perhaps so as not to poke the bear with the talks as well.

Looks like Russia’s “breakout” has been contained and is being reduced. While significant in that it showed localized weaknesses in the Ukraine defensive line, it is also significant in that Russian doesn’t have the capability to mass armor / mech forces to exploit a break thru like this.

Speaking of Russia ‘mechanized’ forces, reading reports of a defeated “Mechanized” assault by Russian forces. This ‘mechanized’ force consisted of a tank, cargo trucks, a few APC and motorcycles. The assault was stopped.
Now pause and think about this. The quality of Russian ‘mechanized’ forces have devolved to this rag tag operation.

Russia is relying heavily on numerical superiority of troops and glide bomb attacks, and no longer on an artillery or armor edge. This trend is why many analysts are seeing Russian military efforts hitting the wall in 2026.

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ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Mobilization for the next phase of Gaza operations is beginning

- Controversial new settlements in Judea and Samaria to begin.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF continues to hammer areas around Gaza City and new evacuation orders are being given.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announces start of construction of 3,401 housing units in Ma’ale Adumim’s E1 area, severing Palestinian territorial continuity between Ramallah and Bethlehem and isolating East Jerusalem

Speaking at a press conference in Ma’ale Adumim, Smotrich said the plan includes 3,401 new housing units and could begin within months if there are no delays. He framed the project as a direct response to international recognition efforts of a Palestinian state. “Those who try to recognize a Palestinian state will get an answer from us on the ground — not in documents or declarations but in facts: homes, neighborhoods, roads and more Jewish families building their lives,” Smotrich said.

The Yesha Council, representing Jewish settlements in the West Bank, said it will push Netanyahu to apply sovereignty over the entire West Bank at the next cabinet meeting. A letter signed by 19 council heads criticized what they called “Israeli hesitation” which they said fuels international support for a Palestinian state.

United States offered a more cautious response. A State Department spokesperson said a stable West Bank “keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region.”

OBSERVATION - Pushback on an entirely different level. This development/settlement will certainly put a kink in the demands by the two-staters for east Jerusalem to be its capitol. Should the two staters get more aggressive in their demands, full annexation of Judea and Samaria by Israel is on the table.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Over the past three weeks, only 8 ballistic missiles and 8 drones have been launched by the Houthis against Israel. No recent attacks in the Red Sea region.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

UN Human Rights Office: Israel’s decision to build a new settlement in East Jerusalem is an illegal step.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Intermission regionally as Israel preps for its next phase in Gaza. IMHO there is increasing pressure on Israel / Netanyahu to finish it. The last operation was presented as the closure for Gaza, and it fell short. Israel has to go honey badger mode and wrap things up.

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Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

With loss of electrical power and soon water supplies will be dry, Iran is facing even greater threat - Snapbacks

If the snapback mechanism is activated, all UN sanctions imposed on Iran between 2006 and 2010 would return. These include a full arms embargo, a total ban on uranium enrichment, a ban on ballistic missile tests capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and a ban on transferring technology and technical assistance in the missile field. In addition, it would impose asset freezes and international travel bans on Iranian officials and entities, and countries would be allowed to search Iranian cargo planes and ships of the national shipping company to find prohibited goods.

“An existential threat,” is how a senior Iranian official described the possibility of the powers activating the snapback mechanism. “The Islamic Republic has neither the economic nor military capability to withstand the return of UN sanctions. This will cause the people to protest again, and this time it could be different,” he told the Telegraph from Tehran. “Sanctions are more damaging than war,” another senior Iranian official added. “The Supreme National Security Council has asked the presidency to find a way to talks before it’s too late.”

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/08/14/iran-moves-towards-dramatic-internal-conflict-and-another-war/

OBSERVATION - The mullah’s fixation for war with Israel is blinding them to the growing challenge in Iran itself. They may find their bubble burst in ways most unpleasant

***
The city of Tabriz has announced a water outage from 4 to 6 PM in the city, while asking citizens to sharply reduce their consumption of water.
Temperatures in Khuzestan today reach 51 degrees Celsius (124 degrees Fahrenheit) as power outages continue throughout the province.
One county in northeast Iran told state media sources that the sales of wheat have plummeted 75% due to drought and power outages.

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Lebanon -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem: We refuse to surrender our weapons while Israeli attacks continue. There will be no “life” in Lebanon if the government tries to confront Hezbollah. The Lebanese government’s decision to disarm us could lead to a “civil war.” He is prepared to fight a “battle” to preserve his weapons

***
The IDF reports it struck multiple Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. Many believed to be arms and ammo depots.

OBSERVATION - Israel continues to dominate Hezbollah and keep them in the hole. They refuse to give up their weapons, then Israel will blow them up. Very simple message. This facilitates and strengthens the Lebanese govt thru Israeli disarmament of Hezbollah. Beirut may complain about the air strikes, but I’m pretty sure that secretly they are thankful for the help.

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HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)

Things are deceptively quiet. Like the duck on a pond, placid at the surface while paddling strenuously under the surface

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CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
Overnight, Antifa and the far-left appeared to be rioting again at the local ICE facility in Portland. Almost a daily occurrence.

***
Increased probability of protesting in the DC area in response to federal takeover of local law-enforcement. Threat of violence during the day is low, increasing as darkness takes over and more radical elements attempt to take advantage of the cover for causing trouble.

The rest of the country is currently seeing very mild protests, mostly signs and some rallies.

As always, conditions could change rapidly.

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Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

U.S. wholesale inflation surged unexpectedly last month, signaling that President Donald Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports are pushing costs higher.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — was up 0.9% last month from June and 3,3% from a year earlier.

The numbers were much higher than economists had expected.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/wholesale-inflation-producer/2025/08/14/id/1222455/

OBSERVATION - These ‘economists’ have been hoping for the last several months to try to tie tariffs to inflation. Likely some impact at this stage, but is one looks far enough back these levels are not near what they’ve been predicting.

Reports note that lowered fuel and rental prices are taking some of the sting out of these numbers.

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POLITICAL FRONT –

Newscum’s threat to redistrict the state to squeeze out more democrat districts faces challenges.

1 California has an “independent commission”
2 State’s constitution only allows redistricting every ten years

To get past 1 & 2, A multi-step referendum would need to pass in a special election, suspending the commission and amending the state constitution.

Add to it a recent POLITICO poll showing California voters prefer keeping an independent line-drawing panel to determine the state’s House seats “by nearly a two-to-one margin” (64%) while only “36% of respondents back returning congressional redistricting authority to state lawmakers

Unless newscum goes full monte totalitarian, chances are slim to none that any districting will be accomplished prior to the 2026 mids and even the 2028 generals.

BTW, Kalifornia, as well as many other blue state, are gerry wandered to the max already, so it is questionable just how many more districts they can manage to flip.

***
(FO) Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor said federal workers should be at-will employees, and it is reasonable to not have federal workers who are attempting to “thwart the goals that the president has been elected to do.”

The Department of Justice (DOJ) quietly ended a Carter-era consent decree in the 1981 Luevano v. Campbell lawsuit, in which the Carter administration agreed to end the use of Pendleton Act Civil Service Exams for federal employment.

The Trump administration terminated union agreements for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) employees last week, exempting certain categories like police officers and firefighters.

OBSERVATION - IMHO there should be no unions for any govt employee - at any level, city state or federal.

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TRUMP Watch –

When asked in a Q&A session Wednesday by Newsmax’s Mike Carter if there will be consequences if peace isn’t agreed at Friday’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump said there will be “very severe consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to stop the Ukraine war.

OBSERVATION - Friday’s coming and we’ll see if Trump puts some sort of teeth to this statement. IMHO, putin will not give an inch thinking he’s split the NATO alliance’s support for Ukraine, giving him leverage over Trump.

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Illegal Immigration –

“Illegal aliens may be crawling out of the woodwork in D.C., but our officers will not stop until our nation’s capital is safe and prosperous once again,” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) declared Wednesday, cheering President Donald Trump’s deployment of federal officers to the city.

“Illegally present 32-year-old Guatemalan national Ludwin Lopez Hernandez was arrested on an administrative warrant and is now in our custody awaiting a deportation decision,” ICE added in one of a series of social media posts

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/ice-illegal-aliens-crawling-out-woodwork-dc

OBSERVATION - I’ve not seen any serious call for protests in DC this weekend. The only ‘protest’ action has been for residents to go outside, bang pots and pans for five minutes and yell.

Illegals are deeply embedded into DC as well as other liberal run hell holes because they have cover and copious benefits there. Shining the light via a multifaceted law enforcement effort is bound to expose illegals.

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China -

Indicators that China is conducting extensive search and rescue operations around the area where two of their vessels collided while harassing a Philippines coast guard ship.

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Phillipines –

Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Higgins has conducted a freedom of navigation operation near Scarborough Shoal, just 2 days after two PRC ships collided while harassing a Philippines coast guard ship in the same area.

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Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Lavrov, Ushakov, Belousov, Siluanov and Dmitriev will be present from the Russian side at the Putin-Trump meeting. Putin and Trump will hold a joint press conference following the talks — Ushakov

OBSERVATION - I see no indicators that Russia is going to move its position one inch. Friday’s discussions may produce another nothing burger or Trump will act decisively . Going to depend a lot on Russia/putin’s attitude towards Trump.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight into August 14, Russia launched 45 Shahed and other decoy drones, along with two S-300/400 missiles from Kursk region. Strikes targeted front-line areas of Donetsk and Chernihiv regions with drones, and Sumy region with missiles. Ukrainian air defense, EW units, UAV teams, and mobile fire groups downed or suppressed 24 drones over the north and east. Twenty-one drones hit 12 locations.

Russian losses per 14/08/25. Reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+990 men
+5 tanks
+3 AFVS
+29 artillery
+1 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Iskra and Scherbynivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims drones strike at the Lukoil oil refinery Lukoil-Volgogradneftepereravotka in Volgograd
Social media videos show the refinery is currently ablaze after a successful overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Multiple Ukrainian attack drones reportedly hit the facility, causing a major fire that continuing to burn into the morning.

Summary —

Ukraine continues it successful attacks on Russian petroleum assets. When they focused on it last year, they stripped a substantial amount of processing and transporting capabilities off the chart. Each successful strike hits Russia logistics as well as civilian as Russia has to pull fuel designated for civilian use to support the war - creating inflation for the population as supplies contract.

Little word on the breakout north of Pokrovsk, due both to OPSEC as well as fog of war. Some of this may be reflected in the generally low causality numbers above. As OSINT analysts noted, Russia did not / does not have the armor forces available to exploit such a penetration.

---

Europe / NATO General –

European and Ukraine leaders teleconferenced with Trump to convey their concerns and positions in advance of the meeting with putin.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF continues to hit targets in the Gaza City area.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Reports indicate the IDF plans to mobilize 80,000 to 100,000 reservists for the assault to seize control of Gaza City.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A ballistic missile launched a short while ago by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in Yemen was successfully intercepted by the Israeli Air Force.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan stresses the need for the international community to take immediate action to halt all provocative Israeli measures and statements that threaten regional stability and international peace and security.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Seemingly low news period, but a lot working behind the scenes. IDF has its orders and plans and should be fully ready to conduct operations against Gaza City and the whole of Gaza by the end of the month.

Voices crying about the ‘famine’ are gradually being silenced as video after video from Hama and Gazans showing Hamas hijacking of food and aid flood the inter web social sites.

Rumors that Hamas is increasingly desperate to put together some sort of international coalition to forcefully interject into the pending next phase in Gaza.

On other fronts, Lebanon is firming up its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and cauterize them from national govt. IAF strikes on Hezbollah arms storage sites are maintaining their weakness to respond.

Syria is relatively stable, however tensions are still present in the south as the govt plays a peace keeper game while essentially running a blockade to the Druze region. Turkey trying to apply leverage to get the govt to become more forceful to the Kurdish based SDF in the northeast.

For Iran - RUMINT continues to flow on a surprise attack by Iran and equally from Israel.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Govt officials in Tehran warn that reservoirs are at 19% and only half of that is usable. Threat of total loss of water is looming large on the horizon.

---

Lebanon -

Lebanese President Aoun to Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani:

“We want to cooperate with Iran within the framework of sovereignty and mutual respect; the discourse recently conducted by some senior Iranian officials does not help the situation. We will not allow anyone to bear arms in Lebanon except the security forces; we oppose interference in our internal affairs by any party.”

OBSERVATION - Very subtle hint to Iran to start minding their own business.

Later in the day Hezbollah leaders met with Ali Larijani and reiterated their allegiance to Iran and the goal to prosecute war against Israel.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Turkey will help Syria with the provision of weapons systems and logistical tools under a military cooperation accord signed on Wednesday, a Turkish defense Ministry source told Reuters, adding that Ankara would also train Syria’s army in the use of such equipment if needed

---

Mexico -

State Dept has issued a Level 2 alert for Mexico - Exercise increased caution in Mexico due to terrorism, crime, and kidnapping.

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

But now, a Big Tech-backed, Trump-approved digital personal health tracking system has appeared on the national landscape with a “Patient-Centric Healthcare Ecosystem” announced at a recent White House event hosted with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

This government-initiated Digital Health Ecosystem will work with Amazon, Anthropic, Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and others, including World Economic Forum (WEF) partners who are working with global elites to build sugar-coated, white-labeled Chinese credit system-esque frameworks worldwide.

Though the Digital Health Ecosystem has the intention of streamlining health care and riding the wave of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” it could shape up to be a globally harmonized health grid and tracking mechanism that plays right into the U.N. and WEF’s plan. The Digital Health Ecosystem could eventually mandate a digital ID to buy, sell, travel, pay taxes, or participate in the national or global public square.

https://harbingersdaily.com/a-national-forerunner-of-a-global-blueprint-the-grave-implications-of-a-digital-health-tracking-system-in-america/

OBSERVATION - The globalists never stop and their efforts work around more subdued means. While this US program isn’t the final solution, it can be adapted by those more vile down the road.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***

National guard elements began patrols in DC overnight. Yesterday, leftists became more vocal over the federal take over of police actions, claiming (as usual ) racism and even apartheid.

Police union contradicts the claims by the liberal city govt of lowest crime in decades, noting the widespread redefinition of numerous crimes.

Warning remains for this weekend as the left is looking to ramp up from rhetoric to protest and some levels of violence. Keep alert.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

From CNBC,
Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries.
For months, economists have sounded the alarm about runaway prices. The big spike still hasn’t shown up.
Inflation held steady at 2.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, just shy of the 2.8 percent bump Wall Street expected. It’s the same reading as June.

OBSERVATION - Some economists on the left tried to make the report into the apocalypse, but it didn’t gain traction.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Trump administration is evaluating plans to create units composed of hundreds of National Guard troops tasked with rapidly deploying into U.S. cities facing protests or unrest, The Washington Post reported Tuesday, citing internal Pentagon documents.

The “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force” plan calls for 600 troops, split into two groups of 300, to be on standby at all times so they can deploy in as little as one hour, the Post reported.

The troops would be stationed at military bases in Alabama and Arizona, the documents showed.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/pentagon-trump-admin-national-guard/2025/08/12/id/1222110/

OBSERVATION - Forward planning and thinking. I think that the leftist response in LA to ICE operations opened eyes to the potential for very rapid escalation of violence and showed the need for more flexibility and ability to get on the ground quicker during an incident. These teams would provide a stopgap while regular NG units are spun up to deal with a major event.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Texas House Democrats are reportedly ending their weeks-long standoff Tuesday and returning to Austin.

OBSERVATION - Optics for the democrats crumbled quickly and with Beto’s PAC under the guns for allegedly illegally funding the runaways (who have been ordered by courts to stop payments), the cost of such a misadventure is hitting their pocketbooks.
Next to watch and see if kalifornia tries to ram thru a redistricting effort of its own.
Noting again from what Ive said earlier, many blue states are gerrymandered to the max already, so what more can kalifornia do?

---

TRUMP Watch –

Friday’s meeting between Putin and Trump will be held at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, AK - CNN

---

Illegal Immigration –

More than 100,000 Americans have applied to join U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in just over two weeks following the launch of a nationwide recruitment drive, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed Monday, as reported by Fox News.
President Donald Trump’s administration began the initiative at the end of July, aiming to hire 10,000 additional ICE agents.

***
Press Sec. Leavitt: Zero illegal immigrants have been released into the United States at the border for the third consecutive month.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia’s position on peace in Ukraine has not changed and was set out by President Putin in June of last year.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 49 drones and two ballistic missiles overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 34 targets, including 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles and 32 Shahed or other decoy drones in the north and east. Seventeen drones hit 15 locations.

Russian losses per 13/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+890 men
+1 tank
+8 AFVs
+23 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Suvorove(Zatyshok) and Nikanorovka(Zapovidne) villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight attack at the oil pumping station Unecha, involved in supplying of Russian armed forces with fuel

Summary —

Action on the ground remains focused on the area north and east of Pokrovsk, where small teams of Russian forces reportedly are finding ways to infiltrate into the breakthrough region. Deeper penetration appears to have been blunted, but with the reported seizure of the main highway in the region, the damage has been done.

Coming to any agreement on Friday looks to remain distant as putin’s demands from June of last year remain front and center in Russia’s position. Increased pressure from European allies of Ukraine not to cede any terrain without full Ukraine sign off is pressuring from the other side.

My guess is that Russia will see the split between the US and Europe going in their way and will dig in and not make any concessions, calling trump’s bluff on increased sanctions and tariffs. The war will continue.

---

Europe / NATO General –

European and Ukrainian leaders meeting and contacting Trump on their positions regarding his meeting with putin.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Plans for the next phase in Gaza moving forward.

- Reports of some ground penetrations into Gaza City by Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli military Chief of Staff approved “main concept” for an attack plan in Gaza strip

***
Intense airstrikes around Gaza City and Khan Yunis.

***
Hamas says Israel carrying out ground incursions in Gaza City

***
Israeli FM Saar states the obvious that a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital would endanger Israel’s population centers and leave its borders indefensible.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

After saying yesterday that they’ve been quiet, two Houthi UAVs from Yemen were intercepted above the Red Sea near Eilat

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Washington Free Beacon reveals:
The UN secretly changed the criteria for defining hunger in conflict areas, in order to allow a declaration of hunger in Gaza.

In the report The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
published on 29.7, the criterion requiring that 30% of children in the conflict area be malnourished to declare hunger was reduced to only 15%.

In other words, the criterion for Gaza was cut by 50% compared to other conflict areas in order to allow a declaration of hunger.

***
After Germany halted new arms contracts deliveries to Israel, the CSU party, part of Chancellor Merz’s coalition, said it was not consulted. CSU lawmaker Stephan Pilsinger remarked, “Currently, we feel like we benefit more from Israel in terms of security policy than Israel benefits from us.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Noting of IDF ground incursions into Gaza City - most likely recon missions. Could see increased ground activity by the end of the month.

Political pressure on the international level continues, but is losing some traction as the famine narrative is losing some validity in the leftist view. Israel has weathered the worst and is going back into badger mode towards its plan to eliminate Hamas.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Netanyahu: 400 kg of enriched uranium in Iran was not damaged and we are closely monitoring this with Washington. We are on high alert for the possibility of Iran attempting to rebuild its nuclear program

OBSERVATION - Rest assured, Mossad has this location (s) under tight surveillance

***
The E3 Group, which consists of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, has informed the United Nations that they intend to reinstate major economic sanctions against Iran, if they do not return to the negotiation table regarding their nuclear program by the end of August, according to a report by the Financial Times.

OBSERVATION - This has Iran’s attention in a serious manner especially given the massive disaster with no power and no water for large areas of Iran.

***
Reports out of Iran are indicting that a missile test(s) was conducted by the IRGC, from in several areas of the country.

The reporting suggests coordinated volleys across separate districts rather than one static range, a deliberate choice to demonstrate coverage from multiple vectors.

OBSERVATION - Multiple launch sites were one tactic Iran used towards the end of the 12 day war to confuse/overload the Israeli ballistic missile defenses.

---

Lebanon -

Israel and the U.S. have informed the members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) that they oppose another automatic extension of the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which is scheduled for reassessment in a discussion later in August.
Israel has long criticized the peacekeeping force for failing to confront the terror group Hezbollah, which entrenched itself in southern Lebanon over decades without the UN force sounding the alarm or confronting the terror group.

Israel and the U.S. are now trying to convince UNSC members to support substantial changes to UNIFIL’s mandate, or to abolish it completely “in light of its prolonged failure to prevent Hezbollah’s infiltration into southern Lebanon, and to enforce the Lebanese government’s sovereignty in the area,” an informed source told the Jerusalem Post.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-88/

OBSERVATION - The UNIFIL has been worse than useless and has been shown on many occasions to have supported Hezbollah operations.

***
The head of the intelligence headquarters in the southern Dahieh area of Beirut, Brigadier General Maher Raad, was suddenly dismissed, as reported today (Tuesday) by local media.

The senior Lebanese officer, is considered to have close ties to the Hezbollah terrorist organization. The senior figure in the military intelligence apparatus is regarded as highly influential and has led the headquarters since 2017.

He is a native of the Shiite village of Jibaa in the southern Nabatieh district, and a relative of Hezbollah faction parliament member Muhammad Raad. He is one of the senior figures in the pro-Iranian terrorist movement these days, against the backdrop of the elimination of almost the entire leadership, headed by Hassan Nasrallah.

According to reports in Lebanon, Army Commander Rudolf Heikal appointed Colonel Samer Hamda as the new head of the intelligence headquarters of the southern Dahieh.

This unusual move comes in light of the approval of the American plan’s objectives to disarm Hezbollah. According to the leaked outline in Beirut, within four months the “armed presence” of Hezbollah in the area south of the Litani River, and even north of it, is supposed to end. The terrorist organization rejected the plan outright.

OBSERVATION - Some are noting that this is a significant step forward in prying Hezbollah out of Lebanese govt and military.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Syrian Foreign Minister: We face challenges, most notably Israeli raids that threaten our security. Our country is going through a delicate time after years of war that have affected every home in the country. Syria faces dangerous challenges, most notably Israeli interventions and attacks that threaten the country’s stability.

***
Syria, Jordan, and the US said Jordan hosted talks in Amman to reinforce the Suwayda ceasefire and advance stability. Syria pledged to investigate crimes, improve aid, restore services, rehabilitate areas, and promote reconciliation. A tripartite group will support the ceasefire, with more meetings planned in the coming weeks.

OBSERVATION - The Syrian govt has been all talk and little action on investigations in this manner. Far too much evidence that the ‘regular’ Syrian military forces took part in these atrocities.

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
As warned yesterday, leftists are trying to rally the ‘troops’ in opposition to the federal take over of law enforcement in DC -

In the wake of President Donald Trumpannouncing measures on Monday morning to curb violence in the nation’s capital, protestors in Washington, DC claimed that the efforts, including placing the city’s police department under federal control, was provoking “violence.”

“The President has been trying to provoke violence here, right here in the black communities and the brown communities,” a woman told the crowd. “Having ICE kidnap our neighbors. Having the black community be harassed and profiled and want a response. We say hell no, we won’t go. When we say we won’t go, that mean we’re not going into their, to those mass incarcerate—into, into their prisons and enslavement. We won’t go into their, to their ICE, those, what he call, his beautiful centers that he got. We won’t go to where alligators live. Hell no, we won’t go.”

https://thepostmillennial.com/far-left-group-protests-trump-making-dc-safe-from-crime-claims-president-is-trying-to-provoke-violence?utm_campaign=64470#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - There could be large protests and potential violence come this weekend as federal officers and National Guard troops hit the streets. However, with a new sheriff in town, some of the violence may be dampened by a sudden dash of reality in that the arrestees will not find a revolving door at the police precinct or courts. Facing real jail time can change an attitude.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Trump announced that the DC Police will be under direct federal control.

TRUMP: “We’re declaring a public safety emergency in the District of Columbia — and AG Pam Bondi is taking command of the Metropolitan Police Department as of this moment.”

800 National Guard troops to be deployed to Washington, Trump says. It says the troops will NOT have arrest authority, but a military police unit may play a role in detaining suspects while waiting for local LEO to make an arrest.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth states that the District of Columbia National Guard has been mobilized and will begin to be deployed in the streets of Washington, D.C. “in the coming week.”

OBSERVATION - See CW2 above for potential leftist push back. However, law is clear on the subject, that Trump has full grounds and rights to place the police under direct federal control. This is in part due to the special status of DC as a creature of being a federal “district”.

Talk of Trump doing the same to other cities may face serious legal challenges, given that they are independent, not dependent like DC.

---

China -

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday evening extending the U.S.-China tariff truce for another 90 days, just hours before a midnight deadline that would have triggered massive tariff increases on Chinese goods. The order prevents high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from snapping back into effect, giving negotiators until mid-November to reach a more permanent trade agreement.

https://redstate.com/joesquire/2025/08/11/trump-extends-china-tariff-deadline-by-90-days-n2192707

OBSERVATION - Give more time to nail out what will be a very complicated agreement. However the swerving back and forth has probably go China’s economic planners heads spinning.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Russian Armed Forces have launched a major offensive action against the frontline in the Donetsk Oblast of Eastern Ukraine, as we approach Friday’s potential peace talks in Alaska between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin. Some of the heaviest fighting of the war so far is reported to be taking place along the “Kramatorsk Axis” with elements of the Russian Ground Forces having achieved a significant breakthrough near Dobropillia, stretching roughly 10 miles behind Ukrainian Defensive Lines. Reinforcements are being redirected from other areas of the front, as both the Ukrainian and Russian Air Forces carry out extensive airstrikes against positions on and around the T-05-15 Highway.

Overnight, Russia launched 48 Shahed-type drones and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 36 drones over the north and east. Twelve drones and three missiles struck seven locations.

Russian losses per 12/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+980 men
+5 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD systems

Ukrainian attack drones mounted a strike on the Russian city of Stavropol tonight, hitting the JSC Monocystal plant. The factory, responsible for creating synthetic glass used in missile seekers and other IR imagers, suffered a fire on the premises.

Ukraine forces also pushed back Russians in areas along the border with Sumy Oblast.

Summary —

The Russia ‘breakthrough “ is the big OSINT item today. This is along part of the salient north of Pokrovsk and is directed mostly towards the north. OSINT analysts note that the Russians have a created a narrow corridor to the T-05-15 highway, a key Ukrainian logistical route for the defense of Pokrovsk. OSINT also doesn’t see any follow up Russian armor / mechanized units to exploit or any significant ground forces elements. Some unconfirmed reports on the ground suggest that the Russian forces involved are limited and facing diminished reinforcements.

The key is whether or not Russia has the reinforcements capable to hold the shoulders of the penetration open or if Ukraine is able to pinch it off, trapping the Russian elements. Russian air strikes via glide bombs is intensifying to support the penetration, Russian artillery is attempting to support as well. Ukraine has already been maneuvering forces into the region to stabilize the front and prevent the encirclement of Pokrovsk,

I think it is coincidental that the is happening just days before the Trump/putin summit. Is not blunted and turned back by Ukraine, it could represent the most significant terrain capture by Russia since 2024.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Ukraine continues to rally European allies to strongly state that Ukraine will not cede land to Russia in any agreement and that Ukraine must have a full say in the matter.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel continues preparations for incursion into Gaza City and the rest of Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

General observation - pro-hamas European and arab govts cry warnings over Israel’s announced actions in Gaza. Other voices counter saying it is what needs to be done.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Intense airstrikes around Gaza City and Khan Yunis.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

An extended period of quiet from Houthis

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

A Hamas delegation is reportedly meeting with Egyptian officials today in Cairo, allegedly to renew ceasefire negotiations as Israel is preparing for a major military incursion into Gaza City.

According to Al Arabiya, Hamas leaders are also seeking to reconcile with Egyptian officials after senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya accused Egypt last week of complicity in the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Sources close to Hamas told “Rai Al-Youm” newspaper that Egyptian pressure on Hamas “has reached unprecedented levels” over the past three days.

The sources stated that Cairo is accusing Hamas for the failure of Gaza ceasefire negotiations as it seeks to remain in power in Gaza, knowing that this would be a major obstacle in ending the war.

The Egyptian pressure reportedly began following statements by Hamas leader in Gaza and chief negotiator, Khalil Al-Hayya, who publicly criticized Egypt for preventing the entry of aid into Gaza.

Egyptian mediators were quoted as saying that the Cairo was deeply angered by Al-Hayya’s comments, considering them “out of line, inappropriate, and inflammatory.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas trying to patch up relations with Egypt in the face of Israel’s plans to strike directly at the remaining Hamas stronghold of Gaza City. Egypt has no love for the Hamas backing ‘palestinians ‘, given their history of attempted overthrow of the Egyptian govt and other equivalent acts of rebellion / aggression to Egyptian rule. The support Egypt has been giving has been more to appease the deep pocketed gulf nations as their proxy.

Numbers on the left are warning that Israel doesn’t have a chance to obtain their objectives in Gaza. They are forgetting that they said the same about Hezbollah and Iran and that Israel controls 60% of Gaza already.

Indicators that the more intensive operations are still about a month out, as logistics and population movement will take time. This will give Hamas an opportunity to raise a new PR effort to try to rally more international opposition to Israel.

All this is looking to converge in September - with the Israeli push in Gaza and hamasphiles in the UN declaring recognition of a Palestinian ‘state’.

Meanwhile, the increased air strikes in and around Gaza City are evidence of battlefield preparation for the eventual ground operations.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iraq’s Electricity Ministry says a shutdown at the Hamidiya plant in Anbar has caused a blackout across central and southern regions.

OBSERVATION - Iran’s mullahs are focusing on rapid rebuilding of their air defenses and nuclear program - all at the expense of the rest of the country. With he heat of summer coming full on, no electricity or water is going to hit and hit hard. Potential for civil unrest will be on the rise.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

A Syrian government source told Al Jazeera: A delegation from the Syrian Democratic Forces arrived in Damascus for a new round of talks to complete the March 10 agreement.

OBSERVATIONS - The sunni / ISIS foundation of Syria’s current leadership is the main reason for groups like the SDF and Druze to move slowly in coming under the full control of Damascus. So far, the Syrian govts loose hand in stopping attacks like seen in the south against the Druze have not engendered any degree of trust to these other arab elements.

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today.

Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

Worth repeating (h/t PGalt)

https://www.weforum.org/communities/strategic-partnership-b5337725-fac7-4f8a-9a4f-c89072b96a0d/

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
The Trump administration has begun deploying roughly 120 FBI agents in overnight shifts to help D.C. police combat carjackings and violent crime, The Washington Post reported Sunday.

U.S. military is preparing for the activation of hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday.

The officials, who were speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a final decision was still to be made by President Donald Trump but the troops were prepared to deploy.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-administration-fbi-agents-washington-d-c/2025/08/10/id/1221962/

OBSERVATION - Why under CW2? Because previous uses of US forces have triggered responses by Antifa and related leftists - under the call against ‘martial law’. As the article notes, military may mostly fill in admin support, not actually on the streets. But that has never stopped the mind-hive of the leftists. Could see some increase in related violence.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Clock ticking down on Texas democrats

IN RELATED, Newscum is facing a barrier to his threatened counter redistricting effort -

“Newsom wants to call a special election to throw out the congressional maps drawn by the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission that voters established using the initiative power.

In 2008, a majority of California voters were disgusted with incumbent politicians in Sacramento drawing self-serving district maps to guarantee their own re-election. Using the initiative power, voters revoked the legislature’s map-drawing authority for state offices in 2008 and for congressional districts in 2010. The two ballot measures, Propositions 11 and 20, empowered a California Citizens Redistricting Commission to draw the district lines free from the control of politicians and lobbyists.”

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/08/in_his_california_redistricting_scheme_gavin_newsom_may_be_in_for_a_surprise.html

Given the surge in Republican support, and cynicism from more mainline democrats and independents, it would appear that Newscum may not be able to legally set aside the CCRC and draw his own districts. Big time lawsuits if he does.

---

China -

A flotilla of three Chinese cutters was spotted near the waters of Manila’s northernmost island chain, prompting the Philippine Coast Guard to track their movements in the Luzon Strait.

Manila began monitoring the formation on Thursday as it approached Batanes, a remote island chain between the Philippines and Taiwan in the Luzon Strait.

The agency utilized its Canadian-provided dark vessel detection system to detect and observe cutters Hailing (3301), Dahao (3304) and Zhongjian (4304), Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said in a statement. Pennants listed in the release show that the flotilla exclusively consists of Zhaoyu-class large patrol vessels, 110-meter-long cutters in the China Coast Guard.

On Friday morning, the Philippine Coast Guard deployed an Islander aircraft from Manila for a maritime domain awareness mission to challenge the vessels off Batanes.

Tarriela described the flotilla’s movements as “irregular” and said China did not respond to the Philippine challenges. Only one of the Zhaoyu-class cutters was observed due to weather conditions in the strait. While the Philippine Navy has yet to release a statement on the Chinese cutters, local media outlet Radyo Pilipinas Batanes noted that patrol ship BRP Emilio Jacinto (PS 35) was conducting a maritime patrol in the area.

https://news.usni.org/2025/08/08/irregular-chinese-flotilla-spotted-in-luzon-strait

RELATED -
While attempting to chase and corner a patrol boat with the Philippine Coast Guard near Bajo de Masinloc in the West Philippine Sea on Monday, a ship with the China Coast Guard (CCG-3104) collided with a Type 052D Destroyer of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (DDG-164). The incident reportedly caused “substantial damage” to the CCG vessel, rendering it unseaworthy, with offers of assistance by the Philippine Coast Guard being ignored by the Chinese.

OBSERVATION - Chinese activity has been on the increase lately. The incident with the Philippine patrol boat belays potential for even more violent encounters.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Ongoing soap opera and posturing for this Friday’s Trump / putin meeting. Not going to track too closely as full of PR and BS.

Muddled meanderings on Trump and the elusive peace in Ukraine. He has gained some remarkable points as a ‘peace maker’, but Ukraine seems to be the golden ring that is eluding his grasp. On a very basic level, putin should not be rewarded for his overt aggression against Ukraine - no matter who is running the country. putin is trying to reconstruct the Soviet Union through numerous territorial take overs - Moldova, Georgia and threats towards the Baltic states, just for starters. Any reward of territory to putin by Trump (without Ukrainian OK) will simply justify his behavior and encourage further aggression. Many former Soviet republics see this.

Not sure Friday will move the needle very much as far as fighting goes. But on a broader level may serve to produce a crack in putin’s designs for continued war. As I and many other observers have noted, Russia is running out of resources to maintain operations at the current level and can hit the wall next year. When it takes Russia 18 months to capture 30 sq km of territory for instance, this is not going to be a war won any time soon.

Russia lacks the “trained” heavy armored maneuver forces it started out the war with. Today, Russian attack positions on motorcycles and stolen trucks, rushing across a no man’s land of FPV drones to try to gain a toehold. The front is not much different than WW1 - only newer weapons.

Russian inflation already starting to skyrocket further, resources becoming scarce and with new and more aggressive sanctions and tariffs, things will only become worse.

Again, a lot can happen as a result of the Friday meeting, especially in light of recent successes of Trump to quell other global hot spots. But if progress, it will be at a glacial pace.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 71 Shahed and other UAVs from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 59 drones over the north, south, and east. Twelve UAV impacts were recorded in six locations, with debris falling in one more.

Russian losses per 11/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1000 men
+4 tanks
+7 AFVs
+37 artillery
+2 MLRS

Summary —

Overarching wait for the Trump / putin summit this Friday.

Lowered drone strikes suggest either a new series of large ones coming, or very possibly that putin doesn’t want to poke the bear too hard prior to this Friday’s meeting. The last time putin miscalculated and launched massive drone/missile attacks against Ukraine - triggering significant response by Trump in support of Ukraine (materials and weapons) as well as escalation of the sanctions / tariff war.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Australia and New Zealand to recognize a palistanian ‘state’ in September with UK and France.

- IAF increasing airstrikes in and around Gaza City

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Israeli army has killed Al Jazeera journalist Anas al-Sharif. An army spokesman reported that shortly before midnight via X and Sharif’s broadcaster confirmed his death shortly thereafter, along with that of six others, including four other employees of the news channel. They were killed when a press tent for a hospital in Gaza was attacked.
Sharif (28) was one of the most important active journalists in the Gaza Strip. He regularly shared stories and images about the impact of the Israeli attacks there.

OBSERVATION - It has also been documented that he and his cohorts also participated in the Oct 7 massacres along with other actions ICW Hamas terrorists. A terrorist wearing a press vest is still a terrorist.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF air strikes all around Gaza City.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that Australia will follow the lead of the United Kingdom, France, and Canada, in recognizing the State of Palestine during the U.N. General Assembly in September. “A two-state solution is humanity’s best hope to break the cycle of violence in the Middle East and to bring an end to the conflict, suffering and starvation in Gaza,” Albanese said in a statement, with him adding that Australia has received commitments from the Palestinian Authority (PA) including to hold general elections, continue to recognise Israel’s right to exist, and to demilitarize the Gaza Strip.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954764123209695710?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters: Considering recognizing a Palestinian state, a decision will be made in September at the Cabinet meeting

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

How Hamas pulled off such a PR win in having its murder, rapes and kidnapping rewarded by western nations is in some ways remarkable. However, the move to recognize a Palestinian “state” is in many ways going to backfire (and already is). Hamas may gloat now, but it has redoubled the resolve of Israeli leaders to eliminate the terror organization and bring forth its worst case scenario - complete occupation of Gaza. Hamas and supporters saying such a move will draw Israel into a quagmire and defeat. I think that they speak too soon. Similar rhetoric has been spewed by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran for months now - and we see how they ‘ve been dealt with. Hamas has effectively lost 60% of Gaza already. And as long as Trump stands firm behind Israel, all the bleats for a Palestinian ‘state’ will go no where.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Armenia and Iran to hold consultations today and tomorrow - Iranian Foreign Ministry

OBSERVATION - With the US lead peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran’s influence in Armenia has been struck a blow.

***
Iranian President Pezeshkian:

“We are facing a severe, unimaginable water crisis. If anyone has a solution, they should come forward. Sadly, we have no option but to shut off the water.”

OBSERVATION - Rumblings from the affected noting that the mullahs and their friends seem to have no restrictions. Iran playing with matches in the gunpowder bin. . . .

---

Lebanon -

Hezbollah supporters are organizing marches for the fourth consecutive day in Beirut’s southern suburbs, protesting the government’s decision to restrict the possession of weapons to the state.

OBSERVATION - Most visibly are the motorcycle parades through mostly Hezbollah controlled sectors of Lebanon and in particular Beirut.
RUMINT from Israeli sources suggest Hezbollah is demoralized and struggling at this stage to put up a front against the renewed efforts of the Lebanese govt to disarm them and push them out of positions of power.

IMHO, the Lebanese govt, though vocal about Israeli targeting of Hezbollah ammo and weapons stashes as well as leadership, is quietly thankful for the help in putting Hezbollah down and keeping them from redirecting these weapons and resources against the govt.

---

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

See Armenian / Iranian consultations above under Iran

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today.

Currently, it is extremely unlikely that there will be posts next Saturday thru Monday (Aug 16-18)

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
Iman Abdul, a former youth organizer for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, was arrested for urging her 25,000 followers to “attack” a NYC high school because Jewish students attend it. Abdul, 27, an organizer for AOC, has been arrested & charged with making a terroristic threat, acting in a manner injurious to a child, aggravated harassment, and making a threat of mass harm
She posted the school’s location and captioned it with “attack… all attend here.”

OBSERVATION - The hamas/jihadic front developing under CW2 conditions continues to grow. Remember AOC is not your ‘regular’ democrat, but a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Considerable squealing in the MSM over the full on imposition of tariffs, everything from tomato shortages to coffee price increases. We’ll see, especially as countries rush to get trade agreements in place and have those tariffs removed.

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Former vice president at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon:

“The design of these molecular structures in the vaccines... has no other purpose but to injure and kill.”

“The purpose of the pandemic... was to damage the economy, to get us used to doing what we’re told under a mock emergency, and to roll up our sleeves to receive these dangerous materials.”

“Some self-appointed group of very rich people have decided they don’t like 8 billion people being on the planet, and want it to be a much smaller number.”

https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1954113873595834560?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - His last lines above match perfectly the over arching goals stated by the WEF and other globalist entities. Normalize unreasonable and nonsensical govt dictated responses.

Fauci and others were the field generals in this effort. Whether or not they are brought to justice this side of eternity is yet to be seen. Their overlords will likely continue unabated in their efforts to not only bring humanity under control, but down size it considerably.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

“The Texas Supreme Court has now ordered the runaway ring leader of the derelict Democrats to respond to my lawsuit by Friday,” Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced Tuesday, providing an update on his effort to remove a Texas House member who fled the state.

OBSERVATION - He was given until 5 PM on Friday to respond. Its now Sunday, so Monday could be full of fireworks.

Of further note, Beto and his PAC apparently have been funneling the money necessary to offset hotel costs and fines for failing to do their job. A judge in Texas cut that lifeline off, so now, theoretically, these democrats are being forced to pay for this out of their own pockets. However, it is most likely some other PAC is feeding them money instead.

---

TRUMP Watch –

How will Trump’s dance with putin this Friday play out. With or without Ukraine input or say.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

RUMINT –

Russia is reinforcing the front in preparation for large-scale assaults, Mariupol mayor’s adviser Andryushchenko reports. Ammunition, troops, armored vehicles, and tanks are being sent continuously, with the biggest build-up on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, where intense attacks are expected soon.

NOTE - Same warnings have been made for most of this year, with nothing happening. However, in view of peace talks, putin may be taking a tack from previous interactions. Most recently, intensifying Russia drone attacks after teasing about ‘peace’. Donetsk is a more likely target as it has been the primary goal of the Russia ‘offensive’. Warnings about Zaporizhzhia have been out there for nearly a year as well, with nothing.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 100 Shahed and other UAVs from multiple directions, including occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 70 drones over the north and east. Thirty UAV impacts were recorded in 12 locations.

Russian losses per 10/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+950 men
+1 tank
+4 AFVs
+70 artillery
+4 MLRS

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratov oil refinery. Big fires are visible after several explosions. Saratov Governor Roman Busargin confirmed damage to an “industrial site”.

Ukrainian forces have liberated the village of Bezsalivka in Sumy region and fully cleared it of Russians, the general staff confirms

Summary —

Drone activity has been down for the past few days, suggesting that in the next couple Russia will once again spike with a major attack. This could be tempered because of putin’s meeting with Trump and not wanting to have an incident inflame him.

On the ground, the typical grind continues with moderate intensities of fighting.

An item to note. The once overwhelming effect of Russian artillery that dominated early fighting apparently has seen its better days. Russia doesn’t seem to have the ability to make up for lost artillery. Probably high on the list is the attacks from drones, but also materially. These guns require special steel alloys to stand up to the high temperatures and pressures of firing. Sanctions have made it virtually impossible to get the metals necessary. Russia has increasingly being relying on N Korean artillery pieces. However, that creates a logistic scenario as the NK guns do not fire standard Russian rounds. MLRS trucks have cease firing in mass due to attrition, now roam in onesies and twosomes in an effort to avoid detection and destruction. Russia has attempted to make up for this with increased use of long range glide bombs and their own tactical drones.

Ukraine still has a slight advantage in that the NATO artillery pieces are able to shoot farther away - keeping them more out of range of Russian assets.

If anything, this war has shown huge adaptations and changes to warfare that will definitely project to the future.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Poland, the UK, Finland, and the European Commission stated ahead of Trump-Putin talks that peace negotiations on Ukraine are impossible without Kyiv’s participation and a ceasefire, borders cannot be changed by force, and the current frontline should be the starting point.

OBSERVATION - Not certain how much Trump will listen. He seems to be OK with a treaty that at minimum allows Russia to keep the territory it has captured. Ceding any more - without direct Ukrainian approval - will doom any talks given beyond Friday.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel makes preparations for expanded Gaza operations.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

U.S. Sec. State Rubio:

“Britain and France caused the collapse of the Israel-Hamxs ceasefire talks.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel estimates some 10,000 Hamxs fighters remain in Gaza City, entrenched over a tunnel network with command centers and weapons depots.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is seriously considering unilaterally declaring the formation of a Palestinian State at the upcoming UN General Assembly in NY in September

***
Defense Minister Israel Katz says IDF forces will stay in the Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams refugee camps in northern Judea and Samaria until at least year’s end. He cites an eight-month offensive that drove out residents, killed gunmen, and destroyed Iran-backed terror infrastructure, cutting terror alerts by 80%.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis have been quiet for a while, and like a little child that can be dangerous.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Germany has announced itself as the latest European nation to suspend its arms exports to Israel, noting that these could be used in human rights violations and potential war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Berlin backs the anti-Hamas fight, however.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear as Israel’s military is poised to take over Gaza city his government will not approve or transfer any exports of military equipment to Israel that could be used in Gaza until further notice.

***
U.S. HITS UN OFFICIAL WITH SANCTIONS
Francesca Albanese cynically used her UN post to push ICC charges on Israelis & and Target U.S. companies.

White House calls her a national security threat and hit her with sanctions, including property blocks & visa bans.

State Dept spox: “We will protect Israel & all allies from illegitimate ICC attacks.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Some analysts suggest that the final push in Gaza may take some time to formally kick off for as much as two months.

The reasons?

1. Reserves stretched thin — Chief of Staff Zamir warns they’re tired, and hostages could die in the chaos of urban combat.

2. Foreign pressure — U.S. & Gulf envoys leaning hard to pause the fight and push a deal.

3. Internal unrest — Protests grow as hostage families demand a ceasefire, not escalation.

In the coming days, the IDF will present its plan to the political leadership to expand operations in Gaza, including the call-up of roughly 250,000 reservists.

Gaza City is a major urban area. Fierce fighting will leave Gaza City in ruins. It will take considerable amounts of resources. Hence, part of the Israeli goal is to remove as many of the civilians as possible and then encircle the city and progressively squeeze Hamas out.

The other matter growing the growing push for a Palestinian “State” be recognized one way or another in September. Outside of the security council resolution, this acknowledgement of such a ‘state’ by the broader UN membership is non-binding, but sets precedence and allows countries to more aggressively pursue their anti-Israel policies with UN ‘support’.

The most extreme definition of this ‘state’ demand that Israel withdraw to it pre-1967 boundaries, giving up the Golan, Judea, Samaria and Gaza and plops the capitol of this so called ‘state’ in E Jerusalem. We can see just how wonderful this will be as muslims were not satisfied in pre-1967 times to peacefully coexist with Israel and have launched numerous wars. 67 saw the first inching forward to a regional peace, finalized after the 73 Yon Kippor war between Israel, Egypt and Jordan.

Fundamentally, the so called two state solution is just the nose of the camel under the tent flap towards a one state solution - elimination of the jews in total from the middle east.

The current situation, nothing will happen without elimination of Hamas, and Hezbollah. Syria will remain largely an antagonist given its hostile sunni ISIS related leadership. And Israel has spent too much capitol in its attempts to subdue Gaza.

This fall may be more turbulent as Hamas and Hezbollah will see European / UN designation of a Palestinian ‘state’ as a victory in its terror war against Israel and will further crank the PR up to leverage that ‘victory’ into an Israeli concession in the current fight.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Authorities in Iran are preparing to impose a lockdown due to water and electricity shortages

Iranian President Masoud Pezhkian said yesterday that there is a severe shortage of water and electricity and that the government aims to establish a large power plant to meet the needs, but there is currently no choice but to impose a lockdown due to the shortage of water and electricity.

The purpose of the lockdown is to reduce electricity and water consumption in public places (for example, government offices and various companies)

OBSERVATION -
A power with some of the largest energy resources in the world is going to impose a lockdown on its citizens due to electricity shortages. I think the rank and file Iranian realizes that the country has wasted hundreds of billions of dollars pursuing its military goal and leaving them on the sidelines to get the crumbs.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

Syrian govt and Druze are continuing another round of negotiations on how to work differences out.

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

AB 495 is formerly called “the Family Preparedness Act of 2025” and is authored by Democratic Assemblywoman Celeste Rodriguez. The bill would essentially allow an adult, who is not required to be a relative, to pick up a child from school or daycare. All they have to know is the child’s name and birthday, fill out an eight-question affidavit, say that they tried to reach out to the parents, and leave with the child—no proof required. It also allows that adult to make medical decisions on the child’s behalf.

https://harbingersdaily.com/calling-9-1-1-on-ab-495-critics-fight-back-against-dangerous-california-bill-being-called-a-child-traffickers-dream/

OBSERVATION - Key info at link. One of the overarching goals of globalist and communists in general is to destroy the nuclear family and remove any control of children by their parents. This bill, should it pass endangers parental rights in a massive way.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
(FO) According to a senior police source, the FBI is leading an investigation into four previously undisclosed break-ins at Tennessee National Guard armories in late 2024. The four break-ins took place over a seven week span and thieves stole night vision and thermal devices, laser target designators, and other equipment. According to a confidential memo, evidence suggests that the thieves had help from an insider.

OBSERVATION - Not much on the open media on this yet. Items taken are important to covert / night operations.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Trump signs Pentagon directive to begin using military force against Latin American drug cartels — NYT

Trump’s clandestine directive orders the Pentagon to deploy military force, possibly on foreign soil, marking a drastic shift from law enforcement to military-led operations.

OBSERVATION - Not sure how well this will play out. Cartels may choose to start attacking on US soil in response, especially given the large numbers of central American based illegals in country .

MORE UNDER INTERNATIONAL GENERAL

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

According to a federal government memo, the Trump administration is finalizing the removal of a Biden government-era policy by directing federal agencies to scrub employees’ COVID-19 vaccine status from their records. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is set to issue a directive instructing agencies to delete any data related to vaccine compliance, exemption requests, or noncompliance with mandates.The guidance also prohibits agencies from considering an individual’s COVID-19 vaccine status in hiring or employment decisions. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we’re making sure the excesses of that era do not have lingering effects on federal workers,” OPM Director Scott Kupor stated.

Biden’s original Executive Order, issued shortly after he took office in 2021, required federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Following the revocation, OPM issued guidance advising agencies to ensure that job postings no longer included compliance with the rescinded mandate as a requirement.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2025/08/08/trump-admin-ends-final-vestiges-of-biden-govts-vaccine-policies-for-federal-workers/

OBSERVATION - Fortunately I retired before biden’s memo came out. It was another piece of govt tyranny that biden/deep state used to put the screws to Americans that was parallel in the private sector

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

(FO) President Donald Trump said he ordered the Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new Census which would exclude illegal aliens.

Biden-era Census Director Rob Santos resigned in February, and Trump has not yet nominated a replacement.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) quietly introduced the Making American Elections Great Again Act in July, which would allow the Trump administration to conduct a mid-decade census and only count U.S. citizens for apportionment of House seats and Electoral Votes.

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said that Democrats stood to make sizable gains if illegals are again counted in the census, and added that the 2020 Census gave them extra seats. “They [Democrats] stole 20 or 30 House seats by counting illegal aliens in the census, and now you have Democrats talking about, ‘Oh, Republicans can’t change their congressional maps!’ You have literally brought invaders into this country by the tens of millions to rig the results of the census, and the apportionment of congressional seats.”

OBSERVATION - Has the potential of a nuclear weapon against democrats. With illegals counted, states with high concentrations - California for one - gained districts over states without numerous illegals. This could titanically shift the distribution of vote to red states bigly.

***
Governor Greg Abbott (R) said the FBI is assisting the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) return Texas Democrats to the state Capitol. Abbott added that any Texas Democrats who received benefits for breaking the Texas House quorum will face removal from office and potential bribery charges.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has just filed with the Supreme Court to declare 13 Democrat House seats VACANT

“The rogue Democrat legislators who fled the state have abandoned their duties, leaving their seats vacant,” Paxton said

“These cowards deliberately sabotaged the constitutional process and violated the oath they swore to uphold.”

“I have asked the Texas Supreme Court to declare what has been clear from the beginning: that the runaway members have officially vacated their offices in the Texas House.”

---

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

U.S. President Donald J. Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare options for use of military force against several drug cartels in Latin America that were designated as foreign terrorist organizations earlier this year, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke with the Wall Street Journal.

Options under discussion are said to be focused on special forces operations, intelligence support and precision targeting, with any military action to be coordinated with Mexico as well as other foreign partners in Central and South America.

During a phone call in April, President Trump reportedly pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to allow the U.S. military to become more involved in the fight against the country’s drug cartels, according to people familiar with the discussions. U.S. and Mexican officials are currently drafting an agreement that would include intelligence sharing and enforcement coordination in acting against the cartels. Sheinbaum, who has said she expects it to be signed soon, has emphasized that “respecting our territory” is essential to the deal with the United States.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1954051528630628596?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump and Putin to meet next Friday, Aug 15th in Alaska.

There will be more details in the coming days, but right now putin et al continues reiterate his demand for total control of eastern Ukraine as well as overarching influence on the government of what would remain “Ukraine”. Ukraine (and many former soviet union countries) are saying “Neyt” to effectively awarding Russia land for its aggression. See Ukraine below for further discussion.

---

Illegal Immigration –

Owner of “Trump Burgers” being deported for overstaying his tourist visa.

---

China -

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the Philippines not to get involved in China’s “internal affairs” with Taiwan after Philippine President Marcos’ comments this week. “Geographical proximity and large overseas populations are not excuses for interfering in others’ internal affairs,” per the MFA.

---

Japan –

Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) will conduct its largest-ever live exercise with the U.S. Marine Corps next month, simulating the defense of remote islands across multiple regions of the country.

According to the GSDF, the exercise—known as “Resolute Dragon”—will run from September 11 to 25, taking place in Kyushu, Okinawa, Hokkaido, and on Iwo Jima in the Ogasawara Islands.

The drill will bring together about 12,000 personnel from Japan’s Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces, alongside roughly 1,900 troops from the U.S. Marine Corps and other American units.
https://defence-blog.com/japan-u-s-marines-to-hold-record-size-joint-drill/

OBSERVATION - Growth in exercise due mostly to the growing threat from China in the region.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

See Ukraine below on observations regarding the Ukraine war and bargaining issues.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 47 Shahed and other UAVs plus two Iskander-K cruise missiles. Targets included frontline areas in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions, and missiles struck Dnipro. Ukrainian air defenses downed one Iskander-K and 16 drones, while 31 UAV impacts were recorded at 15 locations.

Russian losses per 09/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+940 men
+5 tanks
+1 AFVs
+41 artillery
+1 AD system

This morning, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated more than 1200 km into Russian airspace, successfully striking a key Russian logistics facility in Nizhnekamsk a Shahed storage terminal in Kzylyul, Tatarstan, hitting a logistics hub with ready-to-use drones and foreign components.

Summary —

In light of the developing potential meeting between Trump and putin, the following assessment by ISW does better than me in outlining the situation on the ground.

Putin is likely attempting to frame Russia’s seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Kremlin demands. Russia’s occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year endeavors.

ISW assesses that Russia has yet to seize roughly 6,500 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast, or about 25 percent of the region.

Russian advances aimed at enveloping Pokrovsk have accelerated in recent weeks, but Russian forces have spent the last 18 months trying to seize an area of about 30 square kilometers.

Russian forces have been fighting to seize Chasiv Yar (pre-war population of 12,000) since April 2024, and it took Russian forces 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from western Bakhmut to western Chasiv Yar.

Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar and Toretsk directions are increasingly threatening the southern tip of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast at Kostyantynivka.

Kostyantynivka is roughly 30 kilometers from Slovyansk, the northern tip of the fortress belt, and the cities in the fortress belt (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk) collectively had a pre-war population of roughly 373,000.

Russian forces have not demonstrated the capacity to seize cities of this size since mid-2022, and ISW continues to assess that the seizure of the fortress belt will be a difficult, multiyear effort.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953844108574777842?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Future Russian operations to seize the entirety of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts will require significant river crossing operations that Russian forces have historically struggled to complete since 2022.

Russian forces still have to seize roughly 7,200 square kilometers of Zaporizhia Oblast (about 26 percent of the region) and roughly 7,000 square kilometers in Kherson Oblast (about 26 percent of the region).

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1953871330031313177?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

As they note, Russia is struggling and expending a lot of money, people and equipment for the limited gains. I can’t read Trump’s mind and cannot conceive Ukraine giving up a state like Donetsk when Russia only controls a small fraction of the area.

Now from Ukraine’s view, losing land is a non-starter and Ukraine’s president said he is ready for talks, but warned against “stillborn decisions” made without Kyiv.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said his country deserves a “just peace” based on international law and respect for territorial integrity.
Sybiha was responding to media reports that US-Russian peace talks are considering asking Kyiv to cede control of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said the plans are unworkable, labeling them “stillborn decisions” by the US and Russian sides.
Sybiha said: “Russia must not be rewarded for starting this war,” lamenting that the Kremlin “continues its terror against civilians, ignores deadlines, and shows no genuine interest in ending the war.”

He said Kyiv remains open to “meaningful dialogue and real solutions negotiated together with Ukraine.”

IMHO, its anyone’s guess who’s gonna blink. Should the fighting continue, the constant assessment is that Russia is facing multi-year efforts to obtain the territories it demands. Russia doesn’t have multi years, and generally assessment is that 2026 Russia faces steep obstacles in sustaining the current level of operations.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Baltic leaders have condemned efforts to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory, warning that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia could be next, the Financial Times reports. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said, “If borders can be changed by force, no one can feel safe. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are cornerstones of global stability. We will not tolerate aggression in Ukraine or anywhere else.”

OBSERVATION - Former Soviet Union nations know the terror putin and a resurrected “soviet” Russia pose.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel intensifies bombing around Gaza City

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel prepositioning forces for the next stage of fighting in Gaza

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Kinda abbreviated Israel section this morning. Israel moving forward with plans to capture Gaza City and the rest of Gaza as necessary to obtain the surrender and destruction of Hamas and release of hostages.

On the other side, Hamas’ video treatment of hostages from released videos have silenced for the moment the anti-Israeli bleats of European supporters. Israel will face a massive PR effort against its next phase in Gaza.

---

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

In shocking news, it has been announced that Trump has brokered a peace accord/deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In it the US is moving to strengthen cooperation in energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence.

Azerbaijan’s Aliyev, Trump, and Armenia’s Pashinyan.
“They fought for 35 years, now they are friends,” Trump says.

OBSERVATION - Clearly coming from out of the blue.

---

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time. Going to try to catch up today. Saturday is iffy.

Meanwhile, a taste of fall here in the Redoubt as the furnace kicked on this morning. Coolest July in a long time and August is looking to be below average as well.

200 days of Trump’s second term are past - and the wild ride is still continuing.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
With the weekend approaching, there is nothing serious on my radar to indicate any large scale violent protests. With that said, there is always a possibility that at any of the minor protests currently tagged as peaceful, some level of violence and vandalism could break out. Recommend as always situational awareness.

***
Far-left mayoral and prosecutor candidates in Seattle are outperforming the incumbent center-left politicians, signaling an even more pro-crime future for the state in a city that is already virtue signaling itself to death.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1953179870042681388?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFc

***
Portland (Aug. 7) — Dozens of Antifa and far-left rioters have mobilized to attack the ICE facility. The federal agents are deploying pepper gas to try to disperse the mob.

OBSERVATIONS - Portland cemented its hold on the title of the center of Antifa violence for a long time. If the far left gains control, one can expect a mass exodus from the city and further skyrocketing crime.

***
(FO) Left wing organizers are promoting a 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September to coincide with Constitution Day on 17 September.

Participants are asked to update their W-4 tax forms to tax exempt so they temporarily stop paying taxes; show up to work, but work slowly; remove money from major banks; and avoid making purchases of any kind, including fuel and eating at restaurants.

The group’s demands include removal of the Trump administration, a national living wage, expanded social programs, accountability for law enforcement and politicians, and the release of the Epstein Files.

OBSERVATION - Trying to build upon the one day protests of this manner, I don’t see much impact by this buy-cot either.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Errors in employment estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BSL) have been four times greater in recent months they were in previous years, BLS historical data reveal.

On Friday, after the BLS announced it had revised its employment estimates for May and June down by more than a quarter million jobs (258,000 lower combined), President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

McEntarfer, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden and confirmed in January of 2024, had a “history of inaccuracies and incompetence” and had “completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions,” the White House explained in a statement regarding Entarfer’s dismissal:

“Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later.”

Indeed, in August the BLS admitted in a preliminary estimate of its annual benchmark revision that there were actually 818,000 fewer nonfarm jobs added during the 12 months ending in March than it had previously reported:

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/bls-employment-report-errors-have-been-four-times-greater-usual

OBSERVATION - More at link. Additionally, under biden they overstated job creation by over 1.5 million to make the fake biden economic recovery seem real.
Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer wasn’t a shooting of a messenger, but taking out a generator of false information that the economy needs to have accurately presented in order to plan.

***
Apple is investing $2.5 BILLION in Corning to make 100% of iPhone & Apple Watch glass at Corning’s Harrodsburg, KY plant.

The Harrodsburg facility will feature a large-scale smartphone glass production line, which is expected to increase Corning’s workforce in Kentucky by 50%.

Apple also plans to create 20,000 new jobs in the U.S. over the next four years, primarily in areas such as research and development and engineering.

OBSERVATION - Effect of tariffs, rebuilding the manufacturing sector of the US

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Nimitz CSG still in operation in CENTCOM area of operations.

The Ford CSG is in the western Med.

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

A whistleblower lawsuit filed in the Superior Court of California, Fresno County, accuses Community Regional Medical Center of covering up a dramatic rise in stillbirths following COVID-19 vaccination.

Nurse Michelle Spencer, who has worked at the hospital since 2017, says the spike began in spring 2021, shortly after the rollout of COVID shots. Prior to that, the hospital reportedly saw about one stillbirth per month. After the vaccine push, that number jumped to approximately 20 each month — and has remained high ever since.

According to the complaint, hospital management had access to internal data showing that nearly all the stillbirths occurred among vaccinated mothers, but suppressed that information. Spencer says the hospital left official files blank when asked to provide the data to regulators and continued to promote COVID-19 vaccines to pregnant women.

https://sharylattkisson.com/2025/08/california-hospital-covered-up-surge-in-stillbirths-after-covid-shots/

OBSERVATION - I do not expect to see anyone go to jail from the wuhan plandemic mRNA program and cover up. At best, continual and growing numbers of lawsuits to sue the living daylights out of perpetrators like this as a means of accountability.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

The White House on Thursday announced President Donald Trump has authorized an increased presence of federal law enforcement officers in touristy areas of Washington, D.C. as Republicans slam the city for failing to prosecute minors

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-increases-federal-law-enforcement-presence-washington-dc-over-city

OBSERVATION - DC cops altered arrest data too boot. Big Balls was assaulted by 15 yr olds. Large numbers of car jackings are being conducted by those as young as 12. The criminal justice system is a revolving door with no consequences to the criminals.

***
The real reason Democrats are afraid of gerrymandering. This breakdown ends the Democrat Party
“This is why Democrats are so scared of gerrymandering. Because every blue state is already gerrymandered to the maximum possible extent.

https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1953078888042733821?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Interesting, didn’t consider this before. Democrats are guilty of some of the worst examples of jerrymandering - even in blue states. It has provided them an advantage that is now appearing to crumble. Republican redistricting in places like Texas remove these abominations and democrats are panicking.

***
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has launched an investigation into whether former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s (D-Texas) political group is breaking laws by allegedly “bankrolling” the out-of-state travel of Democrats attempting to stop the passage of the newly proposed GOP-favored congressional maps.
Paxton, in a Wednesday press release, said Powered by People, a group led by O’Rourke, may have violated bribery laws. He added that O’Rourke’s group and the Texas Democrats who fled the state may have also “violated other Texas laws, including, but not limited to, those governing campaign or officeholder contributions and expenditures, coercion of a public servant, and abuse of office.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/5440270-paxton-investigates-orourke-group/

OBSERVATION - Beto could be in trouble plus the optics of these Texas runaways could face the reality of FO if not back by today.

***
(FO) Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Chris Murphy (D-CT) are urging Senate Democrats to withhold their votes on must-pass spending bills when the Senate returns from its August recess. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said Democrats can use the must-pass bills to make legislative deals with Republicans.

---

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

President Trump on Wednesday said he could announce further tariffs on China, similar to the 25% duties placed on India over its continuing purchases of Russian oil. Trump is trying to prod a reluctant Russia to agree to a truce in its protracted war with Ukraine.

---

Phillipines –

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told Indian media that due to their geographic location and large diaspora in Taiwan, the Philippines could not avoid entering a war between Taiwan and China. Marcos also expressed confidence that the United States would defend the Philippines if China challenged it in the West Philippine Sea (the Philippine term for the South China Sea).

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

An agreement has been reached to hold a meeting between Putin and Trump in the coming days, and the parties have begun working on it, Aide to Putin Ushakov said.

“Witkoff proposal on trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelensky Moscow left without response”

OBSERVATION - Nothing set in stone so far, a lot of speculated dates. Some view Putin’s agreement to meet Trump as a delaying tactic, WSJ reports. The Kremlin may offer to keep part of the occupied territories in exchange for withdrawing from others. A refusal from Kyiv and Europe would let Putin blame Ukraine for prolonging the war and allow Trump to shift responsibility onto it.
Putin maintains the condition to essentially force Ukraine to surrender unconquered area in the east on top of other measures - all of which fail to prevent further, future Russian military action.

Logistics –

After 42 months of grueling fighting in Ukraine, Russia’s stocks of modern armored vehicles are low. So low, in fact, that Russian technicians are pulling out of long-term storage derelict tanks that, until now, were widely considered unfit for combat.

Closely inspecting recent satellite imagery of Uralvagonzavod, the sprawling Russian tank plant in Nizhny Tagil 1,600 km from Ukraine, open-source analyst Jompy spotted something he’d long anticipated as Russian tank losses exceeded 4,000 earlier this year. That’s as many tanks as Russia had in front-line service before widening its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

“Just like that, there are a lot of likely T-72As parked in the yards outside UVZ now,” Jompy wrote, using the abbreviation for Uralvagonzavod. When tanks appear outside Uralvagonzavod, it’s usually because they’re gradually being brought inside the factory for refurbishment and possibly upgrade before being shipped off to front-line regiments, including those fighting in Ukraine.

The T-72As’ impending return to front-line service is the latest evidence of the steady “de-mechanization” of the Russian army as it suffers catastrophic losses in heavy equipment in Ukraine. The T-72As’ resurrection doesn’t mean the Russians are losing, however. What the Russian army lacks in modern tanks, it more than makes up for with manpower.

These days, Russian regiments in Ukraine mostly attack on motorcycles or on foot. They suffer heavy losses usually totaling more than 20,000 killed and wounded a month. But with generous signing bonuses and deceptive contracts, the Kremlin manages to recruit 30,000 fresh troops a month.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/08/russia-t72a-tanks-siberia-ukraine/

OBSERVATION - More at link. Russia claims to be maintaining a relatively high new tank production. However, most likely factoring in the rehabs of mothballed tanks. Analysts still see 2026 as the ‘wall’ Russia will hit for both personnel and military supplies in the Ukraine fight.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on August 8, Ukraine faced an attack of 108 aerial targets, including 104 Shahed and other UAVs, plus 8 high-speed drones launched from Russia and occupied Crimea. Air defense shot down or suppressed 82 targets—3 high-speed drones and 79 Shaheds/decoys. Strikes were recorded in 10 locations, debris in 8.

Russian losses per 08/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1040 men
+7 tanks
+7 AFVs
+52 artillery

NOTE ON THE ABOVE - Most recent numbers, not far off from previous day.

Russian forces likely advanced to the western outskirts of Kupyansk and secured positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication into the town. Russian forces are likely to use advances in these areas to support the envelopment of Kupyansk and pursue further advances west and northwest of Kupyansk.

Summary —

The fighting at Kupyansk has been a see-saw affair, but it looks like Russia is finally gaining the upper hand. Note that the fight here has been going on for nearly a year, so its capture would not be a harbinger of a collapse of the Ukraine lines.

Impacts from potential Trump / Putin talks would be seen for a while. Putin is not backing down on any of his demands. Trump has to be prepared to go deep with sanctions and tariffs - hitting the Russian economic softness with a blow that putin cannot ignore. The tariff attack on Russia oil is a case in point. How long China and India will hold out on related sanctions/tariffs for Russian oil is yet to be seen for instance.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel to expand Gaza operations, focusing on Gaza City

- Lebanese govt votes to demilitarize Hezbollah.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir: Israel has the ability today to create new security borders (on all fronts) through continuous targeting of our enemies. We will continue to fight on all fronts, and the echo of our raids is heard throughout the Middle East.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

After 670 days in captivity, the Red Cross is now in talks with Hamxs about delivering food and medicine to the Israeli hostages.

***
Senior Israeli official tells: The operation that the IDF is currently preparing for is only in Gaza City. The goal is to evacuate all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps and other areas by October 7. A siege will be imposed on the Hamas militants who remain in Gaza City, and at the same time, a ground offensive will be carried out in Gaza City. The Prime Minister and the Defense Minister have been authorized to approve the IDF’s final operational plan

After 10+ hours behind closed doors, Israel’s Cabinet has approved a full military takeover of Gaza.

Goals:
• Eliminate Hamas
• Recover every hostage
• Disarm the Strip
• Maintain IDF security control
• Install a new civilian authority — not Hamas, not the PA

***
Commercial satellite imagery shows the Israel Defense Force is building up troops and equipment near the border with the Gaza Strip that would support a potential new ground invasion, according to three U.S. officials who spoke with NBC News.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish Foreign Ministry: “We strongly condemn Israel’s decision to expand its military operations in Gaza”

Starmer reacted to the Israeli decision:
“This action will do nothing to bring an end to this conflict or to help secure the release of the hostages. It will only bring more bloodshed.”

Report in the British “Times”: Israel threatens to sever its security ties with Britain if it recognizes a Palestinian state. The “Times” adds that Israel provides a lot of information regarding terror threats in Britain, and this could have ‘serious consequences.’

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is preparing to take a bigger bite at Gaza. Gideon’s Chariot only realized 60% of Gaza coming under Israeli control. Netanyahu while calling for the whole remainder of Gaza is apparently focusing first on Gaza City - the main city and Hamas stronghold. The fake humanitarian crisis that the anti-Israel globalists put out has not deterred Israel, but stiffened its resolve - especially when Hamas released the hostage video. Hamas has lost the hostage leverage.

A key component of the operation is to migrate ‘civilians’ out of the city to Israeli controlled zones where they will get food and medical care. Then Gaza City will be completely cut off and piece by piece dismantled as necessary to kill as many Hamas as possible and free hostages. Most likely will see some desperate hostage rescue attempts to get as many out alive as possible.

Depending how quickly Hamas is finally eliminated in Gaza City, will drive Israeli control over the rest of Gaza. Gaza City is the key linchpin for control.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

RUMINT - Iran is planning a surprise attack on Israel in the near future.

OBSERVATION - Iran has always been threatening such an attack and it is unknown if the current threat is based on impending enlarged operations in Gaza.

The US is maintaining the Nimitz CSG in the region and the Ford CSG can quickly brought in from the western Med as needed. And of course, strategic bombers at Diego Garcia and CONUS are at Trump’s call.

---

Lebanon -

The Lebanese Council of Ministers tasked the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on August 5 with creating a plan to establish a state monopoly on arms across Lebanon by the end of 2025.

This plan would require Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah has continued to reject calls to disarm, which suggests that it will oppose and challenge any LAF plan to establish a state monopoly on arms.

Hezbollah released a statement on August 6 that condemned the council’s decision and deemed it a “major sin,” but is unable to delay or veto the council’s decision.

Hezbollah’s recent political losses and declining political leverage are unlikely to prevent Hezbollah from attempting to block efforts by the state to disarm it. Hezbollah has long used its military capabilities and political influence within other state institutions to sway the Lebanese government’s decision-making.

https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/1953253081262522441?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Hezbollah supporters staged large protests in response to the Lebanese govt decision to disarm the terror group..

***
ISW. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened Israel directly for the first time in months during his televised speech on August 5. Qassem acknowledged that Hezbollah suffered a 45% casualty rate during the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, which almost certainly rendered Hezbollah combat ineffective. Hezbollah suffered 12.5% killed in action from its total force during the war.

***
The Israeli Air Force carryed out a significant wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah military infrastructure, including munition production and storage facilities, in Southern Lebanon. Drone strikes have continued, targeting Hezbollah leaders.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - It seems continued IAF strikes on Hezbollah leaders and ammo/weapons dumps has weakened them enough for the Lebanese govt and military to think that they can disarm them by the end of the year.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

Druish Sweida has cut ties with Syria
“The Supreme Judicial Committee of Sweida” declares self-rule and appoints a security commander.

***
Syria: a humanitarian convoy delivered 70 tons of flour and other vital food supplies to Suwayda today

OBSERVATION - Syrian leadership has essentially imposed a blockade of Suwayda since the sunni tribal attacks on the Druze occupied region.

---

Added

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Errors in employment estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BSL) have been four times greater in recent months they were in previous years, BLS historical data reveal.

On Friday, after the BLS announced it had revised its employment estimates for May and June down by more than a quarter million jobs (258,000 lower combined), President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

McEntarfer, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden and confirmed in January of 2024, had a “history of inaccuracies and incompetence” and had “completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions,” the White House explained in a statement regarding Entarfer’s dismissal:

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/bls-employment-report-errors-have-been-four-times-greater-usual

OBSERVATIONS - Numbers like these have always been high questionable. Started in earnest back under Clinton IIRC and not only involved jobs but inflation data cooking as well. It got to be standard fare to expect significant re adjustments in the month’s following. While some may view as killing the messenger, real reform and transparency is necessary for these reports.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House Oversight Committee has issued subpoenas for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former President Bill Clinton, and a host of other high-profile Democrats seeking to compel testimony regarding Jeffrey Epstein.

Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) issued additional subpoenas to former Attorneys General Merrick Garland, Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, William Barr, Jeff Sessions, and Alberto Gonzales, as well as former FBI Directors James Comey and Robert Mueller.

https://redstate.com/rusty-weiss/2025/08/05/huge-bill-hillary-clinton-slapped-with-subpoenas-for-testimony-regarding-jeffrey-epstein-n2192456

OBSERVATION - Paybacks now hitting home to democrats.

***
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton set a Friday deadline for Democratic state lawmakers to return to work in the Legislature or else face removal from office.

Mr. Paxton said he’ll ask a court to declare vacant the seats of every House Democrat who fled the state earlier this week in a bid to block a GOP plan to redraw congressional district lines.

The GOP-led Texas House voted Monday to issue civil arrest warrants for the missing Democrats. Sen. John Cornyn asked the FBI to help track down the lawmakers and carry out the arrests. He wants the FBI to investigate potential bribery.

https://www.independentsentinel.com/tx-dems-on-the-lam-have-3-days-to-return-or-lose-their-jobs/

TX Attorney General Ken Paxton will file to VACATE Democrat seats if they do not return to vote by the Speaker’s Friday deadline

“Starting Friday, any rogue lawmakers refusing to return to the House will be held accountable for vacating their office,” Paxton said

TX House Speaker Burrows gave members until Friday, August 8 to return.

OBSERVATION - The session ends in two weeks. Two democrats have returned, only need six more for quorum.

RELATED -
The New York State Senate introduced a state constitutional amendment that would allow New York to redraw congressional districts before the 2030 census, if another state conducts mid-decade redistricting first.

OBSERVATIONS - Highly doubtful NY could get a redistricting done prior to the 26 midterms.

Democrats are also facing efforts to eliminate the counts of Illegals for redistricting purposes. This will force states like Kalifornia, etc to LOSE seats due to lowered population.

***
Fox News host Laura Ingraham reported Tuesday that the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Maryland is investigating Democratic California Sen. Adam Schiff for alleged mortgage fraud.

The probe follows a month-old revelation that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) had referred Schiff’s case to the Department of Justice (DOJ), accusing him of falsifying bank documents and property records to secure more favorable loan terms, according to Fox News.

Schiff and his wife allegedly misrepresented their Maryland home as their primary residence to obtain a lower interest rate on a Fannie Mae-backed mortgage, according to the FHFA’s letter. They allegedly continued this misrepresentation through multiple refinancing transactions from 2003 to 2019, despite Schiff representing California in Congress during that period.

https://patriot.tv/adam-schiff-under-federal-criminal-investigation-for-mortgage-fraud/

OBSERVATION - No one is above the law. Democrats are particularly fond of these kinds of schemes. If new reports, information available in the open arena have Schiff down cold.

***
President Donald Trump expanded on his proposal for a federal takeover of Washington, D.C., saying he will stop violent crime in the city by young ‘thugs.’

The president said that a young man who was working for DOGE was ‘very badly hurt’ and ‘beat up by a bunch of thugs in D.C.’

The identity of the 19-year-old young man involved in the reported incident is Edward Coristine, famously nicknamed ‘Big Balls’ by his peers.

‘My friend Big Balls is a hero,’ wrote Coristine’s friend Marko Elez on X, who said he ‘took this photo after Edward protected a young woman from an attempted carjacking by 8 thugs near Dupont Circle.’

‘Violence like this in the heart of DC is completely unacceptable,’ Elez concluded.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14974037/donald-trump-federal-takeover-washington-dc-doge-beaten.html

OBSERVATION - Lawlessness in the nation’s capitol is a national disgrace and the willingness of the leftists in charge of the DC police to allow it and essentially condone it have made it far over due for their replacement.

---

China -

China’s biggest solar firms fired nearly one-third of their workforces last year, a Reuters analysis of company filings shows, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses. Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei collectively shed some 87,000 staff, or 31% of their workforces on average last year, according to a Reuters review of employment figures in public filings.

The job cuts illustrate the pain from the vicious price wars being fought across Chinese industries, including solar and electric vehicles, as China grapples with massive overcapacity and dismal demand (which has prompted China to dump its exports into any country that will accept them). As a frame of reference, the world produces twice as many solar panels each year as it uses, with most of them manufactured in China.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-solar-industry-quietly-fired-third-its-workers

OBSERVATION - Economic woes continue for China. Other sectors have been quietly downsizing as well.

***
(FO) Taiwan’s state media reports that the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) has quietly been intruding on Taiwanese waters in the outlying islands “on a near-monthly basis.” The latest occurred yesterday when the CCG sent four vessels near Kinmen with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) off but were turned away by the Taiwanese Coast Guard Authority (CGA). Kinmen is an outlying island for the Republic of China – Taiwan – and is separated from mainland China by only a small channel on three sides.

OBSERVATION - Moves by China to tire and stretch thin Taiwanese defenses. In the event of a move on Taiwan, Kinmen will likely received and amphibious assault while the rest of Chinese naval power will attempt to blockade Taiwan.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Putin received US President’s special envoy Steven Witkoff in the Kremlin

***
According to Bloomberg, Russia is considering an “air truce” with Ukraine, ending its campaign of long-range drone and missile strikes against cities throughout Ukraine, as a potential concession to U.S. President Donald J. Trump and to prevent him from imposing major sanctions against Russia after his Friday “deadline” of August 8th. Officials believe that the possibility of such a truce is unlikely, as Russia currently has no plans of ending its ongoing war against Ukraine, with Trump expected to present Russian President Vladimir Putin with “one last chance” to begin serious negotiations to end his invasion of Ukraine during a meeting this week in Moscow with his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1952838286898282957?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Putin sees the tactics of Iran and Hamas on the US and hope its delay tactics will work as well.

***
Follow up -

Last week’s widely reported underwater earthquake off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula (on July 30) resulted in a tsunami which appears to have impacted the Rybachiy naval base, newly published satellite images show.

International reports say that when the earthquake struck, two Yasen-class nuclear-powered attack submarines were observed docked at the base – and in the path of the tsunami; however, there’s as yet no evidence of damage to the vessels themselves.

Crucially the Rybachiy base is Russia’s primary hub for nuclear submarines in the Pacific, and so was bound to feel some level of impact from an earthquake measuring 8.8 in magnitude which erupted just 140km away.

. . . . . some of the base infrastructure has been observed as suffering damage, according to satellite imagery analysis featured in The Telegraph.

“A section of one pier has bent away from its original position, possibly indicating that it was detached from its moorings, images taken by the Umbra Space satellite on Thursday morning have revealed,” the report says.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/08/russian-nuclear-submarine-base-damaged-by-tsunami-satellite-images-reveal/

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Air defenses neutralized 36 out of 45 drones launched at Ukraine overnight. There were strikes at three locations, with debris falling at another sites.

Russian losses per 06/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1010 men
+1 tank
+52 artillery
+3 MLRS

Ukraine drones attacked Tatsinskaya station in Rostov region once again

Summary —

The daily grind continues on the front lines and in the air.
Witkoff’s meetings with putin today are unlikely to bring about any breakthroughs. More likely warning (again) to putin on sanctions and tariffs that could throw big wrenches into the cogs of his war machine. Doubt seriously putin takes any of this with concerns.

---

Belarus -

The first echelon with Russian military personnel and equipment arrived in the Republic of Belarus for preparation and further participation in the joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of Belarus and Russia “West-2025”

OBSERVATION - There is currently no threat that Russia forces will use this exercise to mass and invasion force to strike toward Kyiv again.

---

Poland –

Nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki took the oath of office as Poland’s new president on Wednesday.

Nawrocki, a political novice, led a narrow victory in the June election, in which he had the backing of US President Donald Trump.

The prime minister in Poland has most day-to-day power, but the president has power to initiate or veto laws and influence foreign policy.

Nawrocki vowed to be the voice of Poles who want the country to retain its sovereignty as part of the European Union.
He said he opposed illegal migration and joining the euro single currency, and called for revamping the Polish constitution.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-trump-backed-nawrocki-sworn-in-as-new-president/a-73544170?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

OBSERVATION - His election is due to set off a confrontation with the liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel moving toward total occupation of Gaza

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel evacuated its embassy staff in the Greek capital, Athens, due to mounting anti-Israel protests in the country The move was carried out following demonstrations opposing Israel’s war in Gaza, according to media reports

***
United Nations says 89% of their Gaza aid trucks have been looted since May.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF issued two abandonment and leave orders in areas of Central Gaza, warning civilians on increased military operations.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

30 Palestinians arrested during raids in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem, early today.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egyptian President El-Sisi: “The war in Gaza is no longer a war to achieve political goals or to free the hostages, but has turned into a war of starvation, genocide, and elimination of the Palestinian issue. The situation in Gaza is being used as a political bargaining chip. We are issuing a call to global public opinion that the situation in the Gaza Strip is being used as a political bargaining chip.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Time will tell if Israel finally drops the other shoe and takes the whole of Gaza away. Some of the wind opposing Israel - the false ‘famine’ game - seems to have lost some of its fury with revelations of Hamas treatment of hostages and UN data showing 87% of the aid trucks being hijacked by Hamas.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Reports of several explosions and air-defense activity at a ballistic missile launch site operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) near Shiraz in Southern Iran. IRGC-affiliated channels claimed that unknown aircraft, possibly drones, were spotted earlier over the Fars Province.

OBSERVATION - There are plenty of unconventional warfare elements in Iran. Some are Israeli, others are affiliated with the son of the shah. Others representing other alienated elements of Iran. Still, the reports of drones, suggests more Israeli involvement than any.

---

Lebanon -

Israeli army: Hezbollah operative Hussam Qassem killed in airstrike in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley yesterday

***
Hezbollah Secretary General: We will launch rockets at Israel if it returns to war in Lebanon

***
Lebanon’s cabinet on Tuesday tasked the army with formulating a plan for disarming the Hezbollah terrorist organization by the end of 2025, AFP reported.

The cabinet met for nearly six hours under President Joseph Aoun. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam confirmed that the army has been instructed to devise an implementation strategy to ensure that weapons are restricted solely to state security forces.

“The plan is to be presented to the cabinet by the end of August for discussion and approval,” Salam stated during a press conference.

In recent months, Hezbollah’s influence has visibly eroded. Israeli strikes have significantly degraded the group’s capabilities, and much of its senior leadership has been eliminated.

The international community has made it clear that further aid to Lebanon hinges on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the consolidation of state authority. President Aoun recently reiterated that Lebanon is “committed to removing weapons from all armed groups including Hezbollah.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/412816

OBSERVATION - Gradual progress. If Lebanon is to rid itself of Hezbollah, they need to get on it as Hezbollah will only try to regrow itself as quickly as possible.

---

Egypt –

See statement under “Israel” above.

---

Grandkids and puppy delayed today’s pose :)

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

Another ‘Conspiracy theory’ proven true

A federal judge allows case against BlackRock for “buying up coal companies just to shut them down and force green energy initiatives, all while jacking up prices and pushing ESG policies”

And it goes so much deeper

“Based off this court ruling in Texas today of the State of Texas vs BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street, I am onto something. Let me break it down for you.

BlackRock, Vanguard and State street just lost a major court ruling today in federal court and a federal judge in Texas agreed that they can be sued. The lawsuit says that they formed an investment cartel to control U. S Energy markets. They allegedly bought up coal companies just to shut them down and force green energy initiatives, all while jacking up prices and pushing ESG policies that nobody voted for. If you don’t know what an ESG policy is, it’s environmental, social and governance.

https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1951821290647810216

OBSERVATION - These investment ‘firms’ are doing the evil work of the globalist behind the scenes. With ooodles of money, they’ve been purchasing their way into enacting the agenda. Also noted in the recent housing crush - buying houses to flip into rentals.

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Canada’s liberal government is advancing plans to roll out a new Covid mRNA “vaccine” to “vaccinate” the general public using aerosols.
The Canadian government is ramping up testing for a disturbing new Covid mRNA “AeroVax.”
The new AeroVax seeks to overcome “vaccine hesitancy” by using aerosols to “vaccinate” the general public.

Unlike traditional “vaccines” that are deployed using injections, the new AeroVax is an atomized spray that is inhaled.
The new “vaccines” are sprayed in aerosol form and breathed in by recipients.
The AeroVax was developed by researchers at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation-funded McMaster University in Canada.

https://slaynews.com/news/canada-advances-plan-vaccinate-public-covid-mrna-aerosols/

OBSERVATION - Again, forced ‘vaccination’ on the populous. There is a great deal of evil in Gates funding alone, let alone Canada’s great leftist push.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Supreme Court is considering banning “Racially-Based” Congressional District maps, as it violates the Civil Rights laws of the USA.
This could cause Democrats to lose 10-25 House seats in 2026 midterm elections.

***
Attorney General Pam Bondi directed Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors to begin a criminal investigation into allegations that former national security officials conspired to undermine President Donald Trump’s administration in 2017. The location of the grand jury to be used by the DOJ has not been released, and the DOJ did not comment.
Latest info indicates that the Grand Jury would be in Florida

OBSERVATION - Definitely moving forward.

---

Illegal Immigration –

(FO) According to an alleged Department of Homeland Security (DHS) internal memo, DHS and the Department of Defense (DOD) held a meeting on 21 July to discuss increasing cooperation for immigration enforcement in “future L.A.-type operations” in the United States.

OBSERVATION - Placing this here as it has to do with decoration operations, but it indicates straying over into CW2 realm recognizing that the left can locally rally troops to attack ICE and military support planning is necessary on the front end, not in a response mode.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia no longer considers itself bound by moratorium on deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range land-based missiles, - Russian Foreign Ministry

OBSERVATION - Russia has been dropping nuclear related agreements with increasing actions. This is likely a Russian response to US boomer relocations.

Economic Impact –

India’s Foreign Ministry has responded to accusations over Russian oil purchases, stating that India has become a target for the US and EU. The ministry called Russian oil imports a “vital national need” and pointed to ongoing trade between the West and Russia. India highlighted that EU-Russia trade in 2024 totaled €67.5 billion in goods and €17.2 billion in services in 2023, far exceeding India’s trade with Russia.

OBSERVATION - Some Indian oil companies have sought to purchase oil from other sources in an effort by those companies to avoid tariffs and other sanctions. I think India will essentially buckle.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on August 5, Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 29 out of 46 Russian Shahed drones and decoys launched from several directions, as well as repelling an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Bryansk. Drone hits were recorded in the east, along with missile and debris impacts at several locations.

Russia launched its most massive attack on Lozova, Kharkiv region, since the start of the war. One man was killed and at least 10 people, including two children, were wounded. The city’s railway infrastructure, train station, apartment buildings, and residential areas were all hit.

Russian losses per 05/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1120 men
+2 tanks
+12 AFVs
+28 artillery

Ballistic missile strike was reported in Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky district of Kherson region

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Sichneve village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

The daily grind continues on the front lines and in the air.

---

Moldova/Transnistria -

Governor of Gagauzia in Moldova, Evghenia Guțul, has been sentenced to seven years in prison for illegal campaign financing linked to the banned pro-Russian “Shor” party during the 2023 election. Prosecutors had requested a nine-year sentence, and Guțul was charged under four articles related to election funding violations.
With elections coming up, the next few months are crucial for Moldova’s EU ascension aspirations.

OBSERVATION - Off the radar for a while as Russia attempted to stir up issues to deflect European attentions from Ukraine.

---

Poland –

Germany has deployed its Eurofighter jets to Poland ahead of the planned Russian-Belarusian “Zapad 2025” exercises, according to Bild. The jets are now based east of Warsaw and will begin missions today. The German Air Force calls this a clear sign of NATO solidarity for reliable deterrence and joint airspace defense.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu and cabinet decide to go with the annexation of all Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Prime Minister’s Office briefed this evening that a decision has been made by the PM for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip, including operations in areas where hostages are held, and conveyed a message to the Chief of Staff: if this does not suit him, you should resign

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster is reporting that the Israeli government has made the decision to occupy the Gaza Strip on a permanent basis.

Correspondent Amit Segal reports Monday, “Senior official in Netanyahu’s office: The decision has been made — we’re going to occupy Gaza.”

The top official has been further quoted as saying: “If we do not act now, hostages will die of starvation and Gaza will remain under Hamas control.”

https://thelibertydaily.com/netanyahu-opts-permanent-military-occupation-gaza/

OBSERVATION - Trump is supportive of this plan.

***
IDF forces continue their operations in the Gaza Strip under the direction of the Shin Bet and Military Intelligence.

The 36th Division eliminated terrorists in the south, while the air force attacked 30+ targets, including buildings used by Hamxs.

The 188th Brigade destroyed a building hiding an underground mine. In the north, the Givati Brigade destroyed weapons and tunnels in Beit Hanoun, and the 99th Division is searching for and destroying terrorist infrastructure

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A missile from Yemen was intercepted by Israeli army overnight

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Another shift in the war plan for Gaza. Gideon’s Chariot was designed to place increased pressure on Hamas - it was working, however, their international supporters generated the fabricated starvation narrative and forced the breaks on it. I noted yesterday that I think Hamas overplayed its hand after releasing the videos of the abused and starving hostage. Not a good PR ploy, directed to insult Israel. International cries of famine still echo, but now they are tempered with evidence that the pushback by Israel is not what they expected.

Israel now plans to directly assault on the ground, remaining Hamas strongholds, avoided so far because of the concentration of hostages. The emaciated hostage shows that Hamas is going to kill rhe remainder of living no matter what. Israel sees this now at the time to go for broke.

---

Lebanon -

Hezbollah decides to escalate against an expected decision to hand over its weapons, starting with popular protests.

Reports in Lebanon that Hezbollah is preparing to ignite widespread riots across the country if the proposal to disarm the organization passes tomorrow in the Lebanese government meeting.

OBSERVATION - Much of the population is not shia but a mixture of other ethnic and religious groups and have generally been oppressed by Hezbollah’sdomination of many factors of the country. Today’s vote could be critical to the path forward without Hezbollah.

---

Some delay this morning as my attention has been divided by a six pound bundle of puppy weiner dog

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

(FO) In a post on social media, Indivisible co-executive director Ezra Levin called for “widespread blowback” against Colombia and Brown Universities for capitulating to the Trump administration.

OBSERVATION - University activists formed a foundation for protestors/rioters last year. That changed dramatically this year when Trump put the screws to the schools to clean up their act or face funding cut off. I don’t see Indivisible generating any significant ‘blowback’.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

(FO) In a new report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said there were about 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 July, the lowest mid-year cattle count since 1973. According to the USDA report, the number of cattle placed in feed lots before going to slaughter was at the lowest level since 2017. Ag economists said the new USDA data showed very little indication that U.S. beef producers are rebuilding herds, and beef prices are likely to remain elevated for years.

OBSERVATION - The cattle industry is still recovering from the shocks of wuhan plus a drought period that forced cattlemen to downsize herds. There is still considerable concern over growing the herds given the continued high costs and risks.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Army deployed its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon system overseas for the first time during Talisman Sabre 25, showcasing the advanced missile in Australia’s Northern Territory.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Texas Governor Abbott has issued a warning that if House Democrats do not return by 3 PM tomorrow, he will move to declare their seats vacant and replace them

OBSERVATION - Fleeing an approved redistricting plan that has the potential to increase republicans in the House by 5. Arguments coming out that Abbott doesn’t have the authority to do this. Remains to be seen.

---

China -

China rejects US request to halt oil imports from Iran and Russia

OBSERVATION - China’s reliance on Russia oil is key and the threat of slapped on sanctions and tariffs could cause China to revisit as they hit the economy.

***
Chinese Defense Minister issues direct warning to U.S. allies

“If China’s sovereignty over Taiwan is challenged, American military bases in Japan and South Korea will be considered legitimate targets.
Beijing will not tolerate foreign interference.”

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The devastating 8.8 mag earthquake that struck the area is also where Russia’s most important strategic submarine command centers are located raising suspicion of severe damage to nuclear facilities.

Economic Impact –

India’s largest oil refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, has urgently purchased 7 million barrels of US crude for September delivery, according to Reuters. The move comes as India reduces Russian oil imports amid sanctions and geopolitical pressure.

Indian govt officials had also said they will not stop purchasing Russian oil. Companies see it differently and apparently want to avoid sanctions.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 162 Shahed-type drones, and aeroballistic Kh-47 M2 missile, - Ukrainian air forces

Lviv took the brunt of the attack overnight.

Russian losses per 04/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1010 men
+1 tank
+8 AFVs
+28 artillery

Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck the Archeda railway station in Volgograd region, damaging a building with relay cabinets and causing partial power loss along the railway line. Train delays have been reported.

Summary —

Russia continues to press the Pokrovsk sector with moderately heavy fighting along the front. Ukraine continues its targeted attacks on Russian oil and logistical nodes.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Recent pressures for ‘humanitarian’ aid has caused Gideon’s Chariot operations to stall.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Palestinian President: We renew our demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

After nearly four months of limited ground operations in Gaza, Israel’s offensive known as Gideon’s Chariots appears to be winding down without meeting its primary goals of securing the release of hostages while decisively weakening Hamas.

The recent weeks have seen a notable decline in combat intensity and casualties, aligning with unilateral ceasefires Israel initiated under international diplomatic pressure. Political leaders have sought a visible achievement from the prolonged campaign, but internally, military and political officials remain divided over the operation’s outcomes and next steps.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjvoh36vlx#autoplay

***
Israel PM Netanyahu is pushing to widening the fighting in Gaza to areas where hostages are being held, despite the threats to their life, according to Israeli official, who says that Hamas is not interested in a deal

***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he spoke with the International Red Cross’s regional head, Julien Lerisson, and requested his involvement in providing food and medical care to hostages held in Gaza.
NOTE - The Red Cross has been totally AWOL in seeing and demanding protection of the hostages.

***
A source familiar with the matter told i24NEWS that Hamas is conditioning its return to negotiations on the entry of at least 250 aid trucks per day into Gaza

NOTE - Most of which will be hijacked by Hamas for their own use and resale.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday pledged to reinforce Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and its holy sites, as Jews around the world marked Tisha B’Av, the annual fast commemorating the destruction of the First and Second Temples. “Two thousand years after the destruction of the Second Temple, the Western Wall and the Temple Mount are again under the sovereignty of the State of Israel,” Katz wrote on X following a visit to the Western Wall in the capital’s Old City. “Israel haters around the world continue to make decisions against us and protest, and we will strengthen our hold and sovereignty over Jerusalem,” he added.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The IDF shot down a Houthi drone from Yemen over Bnei Netzarim in the Negev desert, with no reported injuries or damage.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Irish President Michael D. Higgins is calling for military action in Gaza.
He’s urging the UN to invoke Chapter 7, which would authorize an international force to secure and defend humanitarian aid corridors.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

International pressures to stop the faux “famine” in Gaza has slowed Israeli ops and given Hamas more leverage for its demands - all absent any address of hostages. However, Hamas appears to have over played its hand in publishing videos of emaciated hostages being tortured.

Israel is being forced into a ‘damned the torpedos’ moment, and it appears Trump is supportive.

Targeted strikes continue in S Lebanon against Hezbollah leaders and infrastructure. No end in sight. Hezbollah is powerless to stop Israel. Lebanese govt is weak and unable to neutralize Hezbollah either.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

East Azerbaijan’s (Iran) governor warns Tabriz has less than 75 days of water left as Bukan Dam drops to one-third capacity and protests erupt in multiple cities over worsening water and electricity shortages

***
Last month Iran received Chinese HQ9B air defense systems. These restored the Iranian losses to recent Israeli airstrikes that wiped out most of their air defenses. That led to an unofficial truce between Israel and Iran.

It is essential that China restore Iranian air defenses because China is dependent on Iranian oil to keep their economy going. China is being paid for the HQ9B purchase with Iranian oil.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/202508040930.aspx#gsc.tab=0

OBSERVATION - Unrest is on the increase as Iran buys military hardware and essentially ignores its population.

---

Lebanon -

Drones carry out an airstrike targeting the city of Khiam in southern Lebanon.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

SDF: Our forces exercised their right to confront an attack on their positions in the village of “Al-Imam”. At exactly 3:00 AM on Monday, factions affiliated with the Syrian Transitional Government forces launched an attack against four positions of our forces in the village of “Al-Imam” in the Deir Hafer area. Our forces dealt with the attack and responded as necessary to defend their positions and fighters, with clashes erupting that lasted 20 continuous minutes

***
Internal Security regains control of Tal al-Hadid, Rima Hazem, and Walga in the Sweida countryside. Source: SANA

---

Mexico -

President Donald Trump extended the current 25% tariff rate on imports from Mexico for 90 days. Trump said the complexities of a trade deal with Mexico are different than other trade partners due to problems and assets on the southern border.

---

Had to take an extra day. After a long days driving, got home to a search and rescue callout for a couple of out of state hikers lost in the hills. Made for a very short night. However, it was quickened by the fact that we purchased a portable Starlink system and were able to communicate to the lost hikers (they still had cell coverage, we didn’t) via that system, speeding up location and getting them out. Powerful system.

Sorry if today’s post is a little jagged as a result.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

From FO -

The latest push from Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, is training a million organizers who will be holding in-person meetings to recruit and organize additional activists over the next two weeks.

- Each organizer is called to host two meetings: the first is designed to orient new recruits to resistance strategies like strategic noncooperation, and the second is to plan a local resistance event or campaign.

- The ultimate goal is to use mass mobilization and strategic noncooperation to weaken the pillars of support for the Trump administration – a so-called authoritarian regime – through undermining its legitimacy and making authoritarian action impossible or, at the very least, difficult.

- Strategic noncooperation includes actions like internal resistance by federal workers, refusing compliance with Trump administration policies, information leaks, workers strikes and slowdowns, and other forms of nonviolent civil disobedience, in addition to mass protests.

MY OBSERVATIONS - This level of organizing to me indicates that the left (and Indivisible is very much an astroturf organization in many ways) is still having trouble establishing a foundation of opposition. Its protests have see mostly a yawn by the majority of Americans as being out of touch with the key issues Trump has successfully moved forward on.

However, they are not the organization is reformation mode. The violent left is also working to regain its base and retool its actions to try to gain momentum once again. For Antifa et al, evidence of this weakness is that they are essentially been limited to operations / violence in some its stronghold cities along the west coast.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

America’s spring homebuying season just hit its weakest point in over a decade
— marking the slowest market since 2012 and sparking fears that a full-blown price collapse could be next.

Spring is traditionally the hottest time for pending home sales but that’s no longer the case in the in the now struggling US housing market.

In 2025, April through June brought the lowest sales in 13 years, according to Redfin.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14962943/Home-sales-crater-13-year-low-realtors-warn-step-Americans-worst-fear.html

OBSERVATION - I keep saying it that the housing market is a key indicator of economic health. A collapse of the system will cause an immense chain of bankruptcies - and with fed rates being maintained at current highs, money will still be relatively unattainable for a home but for a few.

Lower rates + lowered prices = kickstart to economic fundamentals.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Trump reports two nuclear boomers redeployed closer to Russia.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

US federal officials say they have opened an investigation into former special counsel Jack Smith, who led two federal criminal cases against President Donald Trump before resigning from his post earlier this year.

The OSC does not have authority to lay criminal charges against Mr Smith, but it can initiate disciplinary action or refer its findings to the Department of Justice.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1levr1l07go

OBSERVATION - Pay back time? We’ll see.

***
The Senate left Washington Saturday night for its month-long August recess without a deal to advance dozens of President Donald Trump’s nominees, calling it quits after days of contentious bipartisan negotiations and Trump posting on social media that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer can “GO TO HELL!”

Without a deal in hand, Republicans say they may try to change Senate rules when they return in September to speed up the pace of confirmations. Trump has been pressuring senators to move quickly as Democrats blocked more nominees than usual this year, denying any fast unanimous consent votes and forcing roll calls on each one, a lengthy process that can take several days per nominee.

“I think they’re desperately in need of change,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of Senate rules Saturday after negotiations with Schumer and Trump broke down. “I think that the last six months have demonstrated that this process, nominations is broken. And so I expect there will be some good robust conversations about that.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/senate-confirmations-nominations-trump-schumer-thune/2025/08/03/id/1221072/

OBSERVATION - I notified my senator (a republican) over my dissatisfaction on their handling of Trump’s nominees. Time for them to start acting like the party in control and not a bunch of democrat-lite wimps. Additional slap is Thune taking actions to prevent recess appointments. With republicans like him, who needs democrats.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Watching Trump’s responses to Medvedev, who’s been talking nukes since the start of the Ukraine war. Is Trump calling his bluff?

---

Illegal Immigration –

9th circuit maintains the prohibitions essentially of illegal sweeps of businesses commonly known to employ illegals -circumventing the clearly established precedent that the DHS can arrest illegals buy saying it is based on racism, etc.

---

Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level ADVISORY as of Aug 3, 2025

Downgraded to ADVISORY due to stabilizing peace, but still locally volatile.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

On Tuesday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued the Kremlin’s response to President Trump’s Monday announcement from Scotland that he’s reducing a deadline for Russia to agree a peace settlement from 50 days to 10 or 12 days, citing ‘disappointment’ in Putin not ending or at least winding down the war.

Medvedev warned: “Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran” and thus that “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”

That followed comments by Medvedev that Trump ‘steamrolled, humiliated’ Europe with his trade deal.

Then Thursday, Trump told Medvedev to “watch his words”

On Friday morning, President Trump took to his Truth Social account and escalated from words to actions moving two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” based on “highly provocative” statements from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/08/trump-deploys-2-nuclear-subs-after-medvedevs-foolish-inflammatory-statement/

***
“Well, a former president of Russia who’s now in charge of one of the most important councils, Medvedev, said some things that were very bad, talking about nuclear.”

Trump continued, “And when you mention the word ‘nuclear,’ you know, my eyes light up and I say, ‘We better be careful,’ because it’s the ultimate threat.”

Medvedev had on Thursday posted on Telegram that Trump should recall “his favorite films about the ‘walking dead’” and while referencing Soviet Union nuclear strike doctrine.

Trump explained in the new interview, “He shouldn’t have said it. He’s got a fresh mouth. He’s said things in the past, too. And so we always want to be ready. And so I have sent to the region two nuclear submarines. I just want to make sure that his words are only words and nothing more than that.”
https://americafirstreport.com/trump-issues-further-explanation-on-moving-2-nuclear-submarines-closer-to-russia/

OBSERVATION - With the 10 day count down now down to a few days, Russia is trying to play its nuclear card, and Trump sees it and raises it by two boomers. Putin may think Trump won’t respond in kind should Russia finally use a nuke. They are dangerously wrong. This is the same Trump that dropped a MOAB on the Taliban as well as sortied 6 B2s to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Additionally, the US still has its land based capabilities (NOTE - in my road trip Saturday, I passed by numerous Minuteman silos here in the Redoubt).

At this stage I don’t see things crossing the nuclear threshold either in Ukraine, the rest of Europe or US. The burden is on Russia and should they choose to open that box, they will have chosen poorly.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Over night, Russia launched a combined missile and drone attack.

Shot down:
60/76 Shahed and other type drones
0/5 S-300/400 ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
1/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile

Hits were recorded in 8 locations.

Russian losses per 03/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+920 men
+2 AFVs
+43 artillery

Overnight, Ukraine continued its new summer drone strike campaign, successfully hitting a Russian fuel depot at Sochi International airport.

Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries, were also recently hit, triggering large fires. It also said it struck the Annanefteprodukt oil storage site in the Voronezh region, which was likely a long-range drone attack, but few details were disclosed.

Ukraine drones also attacked an oil depot in Adler, causing massive fire. Fire reported in the area of oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhniy Novgorod

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) - New Main Effort

Rumors that the situation in this area over the past few days has deteriorated against Ukraine. Reports also indicate much larger and more intense Russian attacks in the sector. Some reports suggest Russia may have finally gained a toe hold in the southern part Pokraysk.

Summary —

If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, this would represent the largest gain that Russia has obtained on over a year. Earlier this year, Russia declared this to be the axis for their main effort. Higher level commanders have successfully actually employed strategic levels of maneuver to encircle the town on the north and south, creating a pocket and threatening supply lines. Ukraine as to decide to either reinforce and counter attack to relieve pressure, of accelerate the construction of a fall back line of defense.

Given the fierceness of the attack in the Pokrovsk sector, the Russia causalities seem alittle on the low side.

Ukraine has resumed a successful strategic drone operation targeting Russian petroleum facilities. Last year, Ukraine’s attacks put a serious pinch on the fuel Russia needed to move their forces in the region - as well as placing economic pressure on the nation and locals.

Low numbers of Russian drones and missiles likely indicates that another major attack is only a few days away.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas hails European pressure on Gaza food and Palestinian statehood.

- Hamas releases video of hostages showing their abuse and starvation.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu spoke with the families of hostages Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David after distressing videos of them, condemns Hamas’s cruelty and reaffirms Israel’s ongoing efforts to secure the hostages’ release.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Reports: Hamas has cut off contact with mediators, effectively ending ceasefire negotiations and likely guaranteeing the expansion of Israeli military operations in Gaza

***
Rumors that all remaining hostages have been placed in underground facilities in order to thwart potential Israeli rescue operations.

***
Trump in his response to the released hostage videos appears to have hardened himself against Hamas calling for their total elimination.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is not starving Gaza, if anyone is guilty of that it is Hamas. Yet Hamas has convinced its ever loving European supporters that such a plague is real and caused by Israel. This has resulted in a nearly unprecedented move to recognize a ‘palistianian state’ and punish Israel for its Oct 7 response - all to the joy and glee of Hamas.

Now emboldened, Hamas released a demented video showing hostage Evyatar David, a 24-year-old Israeli civilian kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival.
- Starved.
- Tortured.
- Bones visible beneath his skin.
- Forced to dig his own grave.
- Kept 666 days in darkness.

All with accompanying silence from France, Britain, Canada and other Euro Hamas loving countries.

Hamas refusal to return to the negotiating table and their brazen release of hostage videos showing gross mistreatment, Israeli leadership is becoming steeled to go after them at all costs. Included in this is the increasing potential of annexation of Gaza.

For Syria and Lebanon, Israel to continue strikes on key weapons sites as Israel identifies and sees fit.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Supporters of the Shah are increasing organization and interconnection as they prepare for a potential challenge to the theocratic rule of the mullahs. A big part of this movement is the abysmal state of the infrastructure and the stress that places on the general civilian class — outside of the supporters of the mullahs. Tehran is reportedly down to its last 20% of water, gasoline and other energy prices continue to rise and the regimen is spending its money on its military and nuclear program. All conditions for increasing civil unrest.

---

Lebanon -

Lebanese Justice Minister: We will not allow Hezbollah to drag Lebanon with it if it chooses to commit suicide and refuses to hand over its weapon

***
Over the past few days, Israel’s Minister of Defense Israel Katz confirms that the Israeli Air Force carried out a wave of strikes within the last few hours against Hezbollah “strategic weapons”manufacturing and storage infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley of Northeastern and Southern Lebanon. The primary target of the strikes appears to have been Hezbollah’s largest weapons production plant for precision-missile manufacturing, which had been struck a number of times previously, located near the village of Brital. Katz further added, “Any attempt by the terrorist organization to restore, reestablish itself, or pose a threat, will be met with uncompromising force.”

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

Druze factions captured the strategic Tell Hadid (West Suwayda). They also took advantage of absence of Defense ministry troops and withdrawal of tribal fighters (few remain). Few days ago, a video emerged showing them monitoring the Security forces deployed on the hill. Now that they control it, they have a visual dominance over the entire Western Suwayda countryside

***
The Israeli army revealed that it carried out a raid on targets in southern Syria and seized weapons on Saturday evening.

---

There will be no post tomorrow, Friday the 1st. Traveling

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

Looking into the weekend. Declining numbers of protests, little chance of riots / violence except for Antifa strongholds in the west. Reminder, local conditions can quickly change as the left is growing increasingly frustrated at the inability of these protest to move the needle into their favor.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

No active warnings I’ve seen. Still be alert to lone wolf actions.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Preliminary government data released Wednesday showed that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased by an annualized 3% after shrinking at a 0.5% rate in the previous period.

The Bureau of Economic Analysts report further showed that net exports added 5 percentage points to the GDP, after subtracting the most on record in the first three months of 2025.

OBSERVATION - Good news.

***
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it will still not lower interest rates, despite calls by President Donald Trump and two Fed governors to do so.

In a 9-2 vote, with one governor not voting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate range unchanged (4.25%-4.50%).

Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle wanted a quarter percentage point cut and voted against the decision – marking the first time in more than 30 years that at least two governors dissented, as Yahoo! Finance explains:

“Two Fed governors haven’t dissented at the same meeting since December 1993 under then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, when governors Wayne Angell and Lawrence Lindsey both opposed the Fed’s bias toward looser monetary policy and wanted to hike rates.”

While the central bank cut interest rates in its last three meetings in 2024 under President Joe Biden, it has declined to reduce rates in all five of its meetings this year.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/feds-refusal-lower-interest-rates-draws-most-governor-dissent-1993

OBSERVATION - This adds fuel to the fire that Powell and the Fed are deliberately looking to damage the economy going into next years midterm elections. Currently, the economy is meeting all of the Fed’s declared standards for rate decreases. Whether or not Trump has the authority to fire Powell is debatable, but something has to give.

---

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump signs executive order placing a 40% tariff on Brazil, calling its government “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security.

He cites Brazil’s “politically motivated persecution” of Bolsonaro and his supporters as a “serious human rights abuse.”

***
President Trump reveals a trade deal has been reached with South Korea.

$350 billion in investments of Trump’s choice.
$100 billion in liquefied natural gas and other energy.
South Korea tariffed at 15%. NO tariffs on American products.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the US has made trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand.

OBSERVATIONS - Trump’s tariff policy continues to bear fruit as countries seem to be rushing to beat the Aug 1 deadline.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Openly states that Pelosi should be investigated for insider trading given has her stock portfolio has grown so much, so quickly.

---

China -

China trying to get another 90 day pause in the imposition of Trump tariffs for more negotiations.

---

Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level WATCH as of Jul 24, 2025

It appears that the ceasefire continues to hold in spite of claims of minor violations over the past few days. Violations consist generally of sporadic small arms fire between he two forces.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

After a recent post by the Deputy Chairman of the Russia Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threatening President Trump and the United States. President Trump has just released a fiery midnight post on Truth Social, stating that India and Russia “can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” Adding that, “Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way,” before ending the post with, “and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1950791978758615288?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - War of words heating up. Observers suggest that Trump is tired of Russia speaking one thing to him and OTOH increasing attacks on Ukraine on the other.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another big air attack by Russia overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 291 air targets overnight, including 288 Shahed-type drones and 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, out of 317 launched by Russia. The main focus of the attack were Kyiv and Pavlohrad. Kyiv suffered significantly.

Overnight, Ukraine continued its drone campaign against Russian logistical hubs. Explosions have been reported at the Kotelnikovo railway station in the Volgograd region.

Explosions were also reported in Penza, Russia, at the “Radiozavod” plant. This particular plant specializes in producing advanced communications systems for the Russian armed forces

Russian losses per 31/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1070 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+16 artillery
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Chasiv Iar town in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

The war continues its current cycle of varying drone/missile attacks and moderately heavy fighting on the front. More minor gains by Russia of a village reduced to rubble.

Waiting to see if Trump’s warnings of tariff/sanctions against Russia will have any effect when his 10 day period is over. As observed recently with Iran, Trump appears to display weakness and only bravado until his deadline is passed, then action. I think putin may believe Trump is toothless. I wouldn’t underestimate my opponent to that extent.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage negations dead

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel has issued a formal response to a position paper sent by Hamas several days ago, where Israeli officials made it clear they reject Hamas’s demand to release live terrorists in exchange for the bodies of hostages.

Hamas has informed mediators that it will not enter negotiations with Israel until the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves, according to two sources who spoke with The Jerusalem Post.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Canadian Prime Minister: “We will recognize a Palestinian state in September”

President Trump threatened Canada last night, following the stupidity of the “recognition of a Palestinian state”: “It will be difficult for us to make a trade deal with them.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas has won a global victory of sorts with the declaring of nations favoring the establishment and recognition of a Palestinian State in September. It has hardened its stance in refusing to release hostages and given it a relatively short period of time that it needs to hold out. Israel seems prepared to continue to focus down on the elimination of Hamas, knowing full well that they will not be getting the hostages back short a complete Israeli surrender, and then it would be unlikely.

Talk increases on annexing Gaza into formal Israeli territory, probably the biggest stick Israel can wield against the two staters across the globe.

In spite of Lebanons complaints, Israel will continue to strike hezbollah members and sites since the Lebanese govt has been very slack in enforcing the disarmament and exclusion Hezbollah from S Lebanon.

Syria will continue to see sporadic Israeli air strikes on weapons storage areas. Israel will also continue to closely monitor sunni “tribal” militias in S Syria.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

In its largest Iran-related action since 2018, US Treasury is sanctioning more than 115 individuals, entities, and vessels that make up a vast shipping empire controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, son of a top political advisor to the Supreme Leader.

OBSERVATION - The economic noose is drawing tighter. Now comes the enforcement phase.

---

Lebanon -

Lebanese President: We have confirmed our readiness to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons and hand them over to the Lebanese Army.

We asked the US for an immediate halt to Israeli air, land, and sea attacks.

We asked the US for Israel to withdraw behind the internationally recognized borders.

Israel has not adhered to its commitments under the ceasefire understandings.

Israeli attacks leave no opportunity to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty

OBSERVATION - As noted under Israel above, Lebanon has been very slack in its requirement to disarm and remove Hezbollah from S Lebanon. Hezbollah maintains a very strong presence in the Lebanese govt, providing its operatives a degree of cover from persecution.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

Israeli warplanes targeted Brigade 107 in the Jableh countryside, Latakia Governorate, Syria. Thought not specified, most likely an ammo storage site.

---

News world flooded by tracking the 8.8 quake and tsunami’s watch

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

(FO) An editorial published at a Far Left media outlet said the anti-Trump movement doesn’t have the power or organization yet to launch mass resistance, but encouraged activists and militants to continue organizing.
In the interim, the editorial called for the Far Left to continue building local organizations, preparing for labor union strikes, and engaging in “increasingly disruptive protests” against the Trump administration.

OBSERVATIONS - FO notes that the violent left is struggling to gain traction to support violent confrontation of Trump. In part linked to the democrats being underwater according to recent polling. The next target being ready to disrupt the country during the 2026 midterms, which are rapidly approaching and that time frame is working against the left as well.

All bets are off should a large ,unifying national level event take place.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Stick a fork in this one, not a terror incident but an act of a very mentally unstable person.

Shane Tamura, the NYC gunman who killed 4 before taking his own life, left a suicide note expressing grievances with the NFL and claiming he suffered from CTE, a disease linked to head trauma. The attack took place at an office tower housing NFL headquarters. - CNN

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose in July on the strength of higher expectations for the future, the think tank reported on Tuesday.

At 97.2, July’s preliminary index (through July 20) is up 2.0 points from June’s 95.2 final tally and 4.2 points higher than the June level initially reported by the Board.

“All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income,” Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said in a press release announcing the results. “Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed,” Guichard reported.

At 74.4, the Expectations Index component increased 4.5 points from June, with consumers expressing greater optimism for the next six months:

- Business conditions will improve: 18.4% of consumers, up from 17.1%.
- More jobs will be available: 17.5%, up from 15.9%.
- Personal incomes will increase: 18.2%, up from 17.6%.
- Fewer expect inflation: 5.8%, down from both 5.9% in June and a peak of 7.0% in April.
- Fewer expect interest rates to rise (53.0%, down from 57.1%) and more expect rates to fall (21.2%, up from 18.4% in June).
- More expect stock prices to rise from April’s 16-month low (47.9%, up from 37.6% three months earlier).

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/improved-expectations-future-drive-consumer-confidence-higher-july

OBSERVATION - Subjective, but is a reflection of ground realities of peoples wallets. Major anchor to continued growth are exceptionally high fed interest rates.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

House and senate republican leadership have left over 150 key Trump appointments sitting on their desks while they head out for another extended time off. They will ‘meet’ every five days to prevent any recess appointments as well.

---

China -

China has indicated that it will not stop importing Russian oil due to its requirements for petroleum. Also said it is ready to challenge any punitive tariffs and sanctions.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 51 Russian drones overnight, out of 78 launched by Russia from multiple directions. The attack included up to 8 jet-powered drones in the north. Strikes were reported at 7 sites, with debris falling in 2 locations.

Russian losses per 30/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+890 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+30 artillery

Russian drones attacked Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk region, damaging the railway station and other rail infrastructure.

Russian sources have released footage of another Iskander missile strike with a cluster warhead targeting a Ukrainian training ground in Chernihiv region. Recon drone video shows no personnel in the open, suggesting Ukrainian troops likely took shelter before impact.
Commander Syrsky recently forbade Ukrainian troops from gathering in large groups.

Security Service of Ukraine has recorded over 10,000 chemical attacks by the Russian Federation. These include the use by the Russians of aerosol grenades “K-51”, “RGR” and “RG-Vo”, which they equipped with poisonous irritants - CS (chlorobenzylidene malonitrile) and CN (chloroacetophenone). There are also frequent cases of the use of ampoules with a poisonous substance - chloropicrin.

Summary —

Use of chemicals of this nature by tyrannical regimes is not a surprise. In Russia’s case, who’s going to stop them or hold them to account? Just like the documented mass murders of civilians by occupying Russian forces there is nothing to deter them.

Use of cluster munitions in an Iskander missile documented for the second time. Reports of some Ukrainian soldiers being wounded, but apparently most got to shelter prior to the strike. Very effective anti personnel warhead.

Otherwise, another standard day in the war.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- France and Britain threaten Palestinian statehood recognition

- Hamas hardens it hostage position

——— GENERAL ——————————-

President Trump:

I have never discussed with Britain the recognition of the State of Palestine if Israel does not change its actions in Gaza, the US is “not in that camp”

I will deal with the points of food distribution in Gaza, together with Israel

You could say you are rewarding Hamas if you do this (recognize a Palestinian state), and I don’t think Hamas should be rewarded. I’m not in that camp, honestly, because if you are in that camp you are rewarding Hamas, and I don’t intend to do that.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-backed Houthis at Central Israel was successfully intercepted by air-defenses of the Israeli Air Force.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

UK PM Starmer told his cabinet the UK will recognize the State of Palestine in September—before the UN General Assembly—unless Israel takes substantive steps to end the “appalling” situation in Gaza, agrees to a ceasefire, rules out West Bank annexation, and commits to a long-term peace process aimed at a two-state solution.

Prior to today’s “ultimatum” issued by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reportedly spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for several hours, with Bibi said to have rejected the conditions set by Starmer, which included Israel ruling out the future annexation of the West Bank and a commitment towards a two-state solution with Palestine.

***
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have signed onto a statement calling for Hamas to disarm and end its rule of Gaza.

“In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The one - two punch of pro hamas / anti-israel actions by key European nations in the form of the false ‘famine’ claims and threats of acknowledgement of a Palestinian state - BOTH TOSSING THE HOSTAGES UNDER THE BUS WITH NO MENTION has placed Israel in a difficult position. Clearly Trump has their back in this matter.

Hence one option Israel has is annexation. According to Israeli law, lands annexed become essentially impossible reverse ownership. So the threat of a palestinian ‘state’ becomes questionable as far as Gaza goes. For Samaria and Judea, similar annexation would inhibit demands made by Saudi Arabia and others, to make East Jerusalem the capitol of this new ‘state’. Indicators I’ve seen suggest that Trump is ok with those options by Israel.

The successful PR campaign has freed Hamas of the whole hostage issues, except obliquely as noted above in the above statement by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

---

Lebanon -

The US will no longer dispatch envoy Tom Barrack to Beirut for negotiations with Lebanese officials, or pressure Israel either to stop airstrikes or pull its troops from south Lebanon, according to the sources

OBSERVATION - Lebanon’s govt appears to be increasingly split regarding Hezbollah. Some accept the requirement to disarm and exclude Hezbollah from the country. Other factions support Hezbollah, evidence of the decades of Hezbollah infiltration into Lebanese govt affairs.

Absent significant Lebanese action to neutralize Hezbollah, Israel will continue to have a free hand in hitting sites that Hezbollah is trying to (re)establish for bases and supply centers. Hezbollah doesn’t have the real capability to strike back, so it will suffer under Israeli strikes.

---

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

Southern Syria:
Report of 40 jihadist terrorists eliminated tonight in an Israeli air force strike on the suburbs of Sweida. There is also an (unconfirmed) report that Israel is transferring large quantities of weapons to the Druze.

OBSERVATION - I wonder, if true, if Israel is supplying the Druze with weapons captured from Hamas and Hezbollah.

---

Misc of Note –

A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula overnight, making it the sixth strongest ever recorded and the most powerful since the 2011 Japan quake. It appears to have ruptured the fault zone for a distance of at least 600 to 700 Kms. Tsunami warnings were issued across several Pacific nations, with evacuations conducted in coastal Japan and Hawaii. Kamchatka and Sakhalin suffered the most, seeing waves up to 3–4 meters and significant flooding.

Results I’ve seen in US lands. Midway Island saw a 7 foot wave, Hawaii 4-5 feet and some locations in California 1 foot.

In comparison to the 2011 Japan quake, the tsunami that hit Kamchatka was substantially smaller than Japan. Many factors drive size, one being the geometry of displacement of the earth. I’m sure analysis of the differences between the two quakes will be coming out for months.

Brings me back around to the threat the Cascadia Fault has on the Pacific NW and coast. Geologic evidence collected in the US for the 1700 quake event indicates a very large tsunami was generated - Japan sized. Freepers should be careful to note if they live in WA, OR or N CA where they live, and proximity to the coast. The potential tsunami generated by a Cascadia mega quake will not over top the coastal ranges but will hammer locations along the coast, many of which will have been already severely damaged by the quake itself.

Please don’t take this a fear mongering, like so many others out there, but this is a hard assessment of reality, just as assessments of tornado alley and hurricane threats along the Gulf and southern Atlantic regions. The first step to disaster preparedness is recognition of threats - man made and natural - and taking steps to mitigate harm in the event something major happens.

---

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

Near term still looks like general calm as far as the CW2 sector is concerned. ICE riots, Tesla protests, pro-Hamas actions in particular are down. IMHO, the left is trying to maneuver into another touchstone event to trigger greater protests, but that event has not jelled.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

A shooting at a Midtown Manhattan office building on Monday left at least five people dead, including an off-duty New York City police officer, officials said.

Police identified the gunman as Shane Tamura, 27, of Las Vegas, and said he fatally shot himself. He had a ‘documented mental health history,’ but the motive is still unknown, Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at a news conference.

“We are working to understand why he targeted this particular location,” Tisch said.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nypd-manhattan-gunman/2025/07/28/id/1220444/

The gunman reportedly had just arrived in NYC and immediately initiated the attack. He took his own life before police could reach him.

Though motive is still uncertain, the skyscraper he attacked houses a number of major firms and businesses, including finance giant Blackstone ... and is the national headquarters of the National Football League.

Social media sleuths claimed that Temura had won six awards during his football career and had even played in Canada at one point. Given that the building houses NFL HQ, many assume he that was the target of his attack.

Other people have pointed to different reasons for the rampage. The location of the shooting was the #5 target on a list first distributed by “Globalize the Intifada” activists in November 2023. The list was posted by WOL Palestine (Within Our Lifetime). The same pro-Hamas organization that “protests” every single week in NYC. They were also heavily involved in the college encampments in April of 2024.

https://notthebee.com/article/manhattan-mass-shooter-just-took-the-cowards-way-out-after-a-rampage-heres-what-we-know

OBSERVATION - This was a deliberate act, very possibly terror associated, because one doesn’t drive all the way from Las Vegas to attack offices in a specific building and specific floor. Many questioning his rifle - a Palmetto State Armory lower, a sling, a sight, and a tactical flashlight as indicative of knowledge of firearms.

CNN declared Temura to be a white man, even though photographic and other evidence showed otherwise.

IMHO, this may not be a lone wolf terror attack but some other mentally deranged shooter. Time may or may not tell.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Indicators continue to point to no change in the Fed rate, even though there are cracks developing among the board of governors.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Attorney General Pam Bondi on Monday announced that the Justice Department (DOJ) has filed a misconduct complaint against U.S. District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg over comments he’s made about the Trump administration.

The judge has overseen multiple Trump administration cases, including the high-profile deportation flights case, where the Trump administration deported suspected members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang to El Salvador. He also oversaw the administration’s Signal chat case in March.

Bondi did not state what comments the complaint was directly related to, but it accuses Boasberg of making “improper public comments” about President Donald Trump and his administration.

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/justice-department-files-misconduct-complaint-against-judge-boasberg-bondi

OBSERVATION - The delay in filing this complaint make sense in that it could have clogged up the appeals process. Now it appears that the FO phase for this rogue judge is beginning.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump continues to conduct foreign policy visits with European leaders while in Scotland.

---

Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level WATCH as of Jul 24, 2025

Situation continues to be tense as the news reporting is relatively scarce and that which is out there borderlines propaganda - depending on source. Here are some snippets of the reported action

***

The Royal Thai Army is reporting that the ceasefire has been broken and fighting has erupted again near Chong Bok in the Ubon Ratchathani Province, with the Cambodian Army launching a surprise artillery barrage against Thai Soldiers on a nearby hill in the area, sparking retaliation from the Thai Army.

The Thai and Cambodian militaries have agreed not to deploy more troops on their border, following a ceasefire deal to end five days of intense fighting, a Cambodian official said

There have been ceasefire violations on the Thai-Cambodian border, but negotiations are still ongoing between the two countries

NOTE - CONTRADICTORY NEWS ON NEGOTIATIONS

Following several ceasefire violations throughout the night and into this morning by Cambodia, today’s meeting between delegations of the Cambodian and Thai Armed Forces has been postponed indefinitely, with the Royal Thai Army currently responding to several cross-border attacks by the Cambodian Army.

OBSERVATION - Its going to take some more time to get this ceasefire settled in.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Trump: I’m going to make a new deadline: 10 or 12 days from today.” “There is no reason for waiting”

Trump previously set a 50-day deadline starting 14 July for Putin to avoid what he described as “very severe tariffs” during a meeting in the Oval Office with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte.

Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation: Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road

OBSERVATION - Russia whistling past the grave yard on this one IMHO. They’ve downplayed a lot of the Trump post election bravado, going as far as to increase broad, drone/missile attacks since the election. Yet Trump still is to unleash the full power of sanctions and tariffs. This has allies China, Iran and N Korea nervous. The sanction/tariff combo would seriously hurt their economies to an extent where it would be too costly to continue to support Russia - even at their current “covert” levels. For Russia, one of the biggest threats is their oil export business, already hard hit by loss of the European market and now threats to the Asian markets too.

Trump may have reached the decisive moment for action. To dither further would down grade any other warnings and to keep his threats real, he will need to act decisively.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 32 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight on July 29, out of 37 launched along with ballistic Iskander-M missiles and drone decoys.

Russian losses per 29/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1050 men
+4 tanks
+39 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Temyrivka village of Zaporizhzhia region and Novoukrainka of Donetsk region of Ukraine

A massive Ukraine drone attack is reportedly underway on occupied Donetsk, with early reports suggesting the railway station may be among the targets.
According to Russian monitoring channels, the attacks in occupied Donetsk/Makiivka are part of a broader attack. Incoming reports of UAV activity in Kamensk, Rostov and the whole of occupied Luhansk region. Lots of UAVs are reportedly flying. There are lots of power outages reported.
Ukrainian forces have increasingly focused on disrupting Russian railway logistics, and tonight appears to be no exception.

Summary —

Low drone day and moderately heavy fighting along the front. Possibly a couple more low drone days before the next surge. Russian advances along the front continue to be ponderously slow and costly.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Pushback on the ‘Two State Solution” conference

- Potential annexation of portions of Gaza by Israel

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Haaretz: Netanyahu will propose to the security and political cabinet to annex parts of the Gaza Strip

Israel PM’s office:
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conversation between the two leaders was on the issue of Iran.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar says that Israel will not sacrifice its security to satisfy Europe’s political agenda, saying, “We won’t be the 21st-century Czechoslovakia.” He emphasized that 50 hostages remain in Gaza while Hamas refuses to release them or disarm, adding that international pressure should be directed at Hamas, not Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The IDF says it struck dozens of terror targets in Gaza over the past day, including Hamas operatives, weapons depots, tunnels, and buildings used by terror groups.

Meanwhile, the 98th Division is expanding operations in Gaza City’s Shejaiya and Zeitoun neighborhoods to dismantle Hamas infrastructure and stop rocket attacks.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The two-state solution conference, led by Saudi Arabia and France, has begun at UN headquarters in New York. The conference is a diplomatic push to recognize and legitimize a future Palestinian state.

The United States has officially rejected a Two-State Solution Conference, calling it a publicity stunt, a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th, a reward for terrorism, and an action that keeps the hostages trapped in the tunnels.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel to continue to hammer Hamas in spite of the faux humanitarian issues and attempts to force a two state solution to the region - at the expense of the 40 or so hostages still being held by Hamas. Gaza annexation is the next biggest stick Israel has to force the issue of Hamas surrender and expulsion. This goes beyond the maintenance of a military zone previously presented.

It is also a major pushback to those pushing a two state solution. Reality check, there was essentially a two state situation in Gaza since 2005 when Israel pulled completely out of Gaza. All that did was encourage terrorists like Hamas to step up their terror attacks against Israel.

The situations in S Lebanon and S Syria remain stable but can erupt in targeted violence any time.

The situation with the Houthis is volatile and on the short term one can continue to expect sporadic missile attacks as well as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

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Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.

“We want Israel.” Protesters in Sweida demand Israeli protection during a demonstration against the current Syrian administration, in light of recent events in the province.

A Red Crescent humanitarian convoy (3rd one since the ceasefire) is preparing to enter Suwayda today. It contained around 200 tons of flour, medical supplies and 1,000 food baskets

OBSERVATION - Still shows a tense situation between the Druze and the sunni Syrian govt. These sunni ‘tribes’ imposing a partial blockade on S Syrian Druze lands.

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Venezuela -

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) as a specially designated terrorist group. According to OFAC, Cartel de los Soles is a Venezuela-based criminal group headed by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking government officials which provided material support to the Sinaloa Cartel and Tren de Aragua.

OBSERVATION - Maduro getting ideas from his Iranian allies by setting up proxy groups throughout the Americas to extend his influence and now growing terror efforts.

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Globalism / Great Reset –

Randi Weingarten just announced “a partnership with the World Economic Forum to create a curriculum..”

OBSERVATIONS - Few things scream Orwell than Weingarten’s proclamations and the national teacher’s union plans.

***
A team of researchers in California drew notoriety last year with an aborted experiment on a retired aircraft carrier that sought to test a machine for creating clouds.

But behind the scenes, they were planning a much larger and potentially riskier study of salt-water-spraying equipment that could eventually be used to dim the sun’s rays — a multimillion-dollar project aimed at producing clouds over a stretch of ocean larger than Puerto Rico.

The details outlined in funding requests, emails, texts and other records obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News raise new questions about a secretive billionaire-backed initiative that oversaw last year’s brief solar geoengineering experiment on the San Francisco Bay.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/27/california-sunlight-dimming-experiment-collapse-00476983

OBSERVATION - These so called scientists should be banned from doing any science because of this nonsense. One very fundamental principle is being ignored - you reduce sunlight, you reduce crop production and growing season. An indirect attempt at furthering the globalist goal of downsizing the population of the earth via man induced famine?

We’ve already seen this film. The Year Without a Summer refers to the year 1816, when severe climate abnormalities caused global temperatures to drop significantly due to the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815. This led to widespread crop failures and food shortages, particularly in Europe and North America. Ejecta from this eruption blocked sunlight across the globe.

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CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

Democrats are organizing a “Shut Down of America” this coming August 9. They will not be working or shopping to show how important they are to the economy.

OBSERVATION - This isn’t the first call by the left to try to damage the Trump economy with this kind of a strike. Previous attempts were a big nothing burger with no discernible impacts.

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Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Knifeman at WalMart is turning out to be a nut job with a history of violence and needing to be in a mental hospital rather than on the streets. Prosecutors are adding a terrorism charge, mostly for keep bail high, a charge that most likely will be eventually dropped.

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Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Administration notes that the end of the 90 day freeze on tariffs will be ending on Aug 1 and no extensions are planned. The exception appears to be with China where the US has frozen export controls to China to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing and help Trump secure a meeting with President Xi Jingping. - FT

***
Today, President Trump secured a massive trade deal between the U.S. and EU

The EU will:
Invest $600 Billion in U.S.
Purchase $750 Billion in American Energy (eliminating Russia as a supplier)
Open Markets to U.S.

Deal with the European Union opens its $20 trillion economy to us.

OBSERVATIONS - Critics focused on Trump playing golf and ‘neglecting’ presidential duties. Welp, this just blew that narrative out of the water. It is yuge.

***
The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump’s chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that’s not to say there won’t be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs.

The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump’s tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal, outweighing for now worries about the labor market.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/fed-rates-jobs/2025/07/28/id/1220297/

OBSERVATION - See massive deal with the EU on this related to tariffs. It is much more obvious that the fed is more concerned about politics and lowering the rate than they are the American people and unleashing the economy. The EU deal will explode many sectors of the US economy and create thousands of new jobs. Lagging high prime rates will be an anchor to that growth.

***
President Donald Trump will meet with British Prime Minister Kier Starmer on Monday as he wraps up a Scotland trip that resulted in a trade deal with the European Union. Trade talks and Ukraine on the agenda

***
Trump has secured deals with Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the United Kingdom, among other countries, during the 90-day window between the announcement of his “reciprocal tariffs” and their threatened enforcement date.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said no extensions or grace periods would be offered after Friday, meaning time is ticking for other deals to be finalized.
More than 20 countries have not yet made a deal with the U.S.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/trump-uk-prime-minister-starmer-eu-tariffs/

OBSERVATION - This will drive these countries to either try to suck up the impacts or compromise further to have these tariffs removed.

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TRUMP Watch –

Even while playing golf, Trump is executing the work necessary for America

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China -

China is riding an exception to the tariff reinstatement in order not to upset current negotiations.

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Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level WATCH as of Jul 24, 2025

Situation continues to be tense as the news reporting is relatively scarce and that which is out there borderlines propaganda - depending on source. Here are some snippets of the reported action

***
The Thai military reports a slight improvement in the border situation with Cambodia, as the number of active combat zones has decreased - Thai Enquirer

***
Cambodia and Thailand are expected to begin high-level talks this morning in Malaysia, mediated by officials from the U.S. State Department, in the hopes of establishing a ceasefire to end the ongoing cross-border clashes, which are now believed to have killed over 100.

RELATED - Less than 24 hours after Trump warned he wouldn’t make any trade deal with Thailand or Cambodia unless they stopped the fighting, both countries agreed to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire starting at midnight.

***
Cambodia will begin conscripting civilians into its military beginning next year, Prime Minister Hun Manet said on Monday, amid simmering tensions along its border with Thailand.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/07/cambodia-to-begin-conscripting-civilians-amid-border-row-with-thailand/#google_vignette

OVERALL OBSERVATONS- Things beginning to calm down further. Evidence that a new arms race could be developing in the region in the future is appearing.

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Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Economic Impact –

The hacker groups Cyberpartisans and Silent Crow announced the complete destruction of Aeroflot’s internal IT infrastructure. They claim that they had been inside the airline’s corporate network for a year, going deep into the very core of the infrastructure – Tier0

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Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another day, another massive Russian aerial attack.

Shot down:
309/324 Shahed drones
2/4 Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles

The Ukrainian Air Force adds that the Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles did not reach their targets.

The attack was mainly aimed for Starokostyantyniv (which hosts an air base) and Kropyvnytskyi.

Russian losses per 28/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1000 men
+4 tanks
+1 AFV
+4 artillery
+1 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Boykivka and Belhiyka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) - New Main Effort

Russian forces are pressuring the town of Rodynske, located north of Pokrovsk.

Summary —

Contrary to Ukraine’s claims, Russia likely hit some important targets in Central and Western Ukraine in this attack. Russia also being deliberately sloppy in its flight paths of some Shahed drones, overflying NATO countries as a obvious statement and warning.

Slight gains by Russian in the central front region and pressuring the growing Pokrovsk pocket.

No significant breakouts on the near term radar.

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Poland –

Poland scrambled fighter jets overnight due to Russia’s mass attack on Ukraine. According to the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command, air defense and radar systems were placed on high alert. Measures were taken to ensure security in regions bordering threat zones.

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Europe / NATO General –

An Emergency Alert has been declared this morning throughout the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, after an unknown drone, believed to likely be Russian, crossed into the country from Belarus and was spotted earlier over the city, with a mass search for the drone currently underway by the Lithuanian Police Force and Armed Forces.

The incursion occurred the night after Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Dovilė Šakalienė was hosted at the Pentagon by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, alongside her Latvian and Estonian counterparts during a trilateral meeting.

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ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Relief convoys enter Gaza, many hijacked by Hamas.

- Calls continue for the recognition of a palestinian state

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

UNRWA: Opening all crossings and allowing aid into Gaza is the only way to avoid further worsening famine among the population.

OBSERVATION - This is the same UNRWA that openly supported Hamas during the years of build up to Oct 7 and afterwards.

***
Gazans report all 30 humanitarian aid trucks that entered Gaza were looted by Hamas as they reached Khan Younis. Not a single truck carrying Egyptian aid reached the UNRWA warehouses.
(Ariel Oseran)

Canned meat that was airdropped into Gaza by Jordan marked “Not for Sale” has already reached the market in Central Gaza and is being sold for $45-$60 per can.
(Imshin)

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Houthis: We have decided to escalate our actions and attack any ship belonging to any company working with Israeli ports, regardless of its origin, whenever we can.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas appears to have successfully wielded the false ‘famine’ narrative into a tool against Israel and withdrawing attention on the plight of the hostages. Initial results are what were projected - Hamas hijacking most of the shipments to go into their storehouses for their own forces and resale on the black markets to fund their operations. “He who controls the food, controls the people” I can expect the world will continue to be flooded with images of emaciated children being held by very fat parents.

The massive push to allow food back into Gaza has put a kink in Israels operational plans. I suspect that Israel will soon close down this bogus effort to derail the anti-Israeli globalist agenda.

This whole famine charade has emboldened Hamas in its negotiation demands with Israel - even more than threats to the well being of the hostages. Especially talk by nations lead by France of a push for a recognition of a Palestinian state (many calling for its capitol to be in east Jerusalem). This only guarantees future terror and fighting against Israel.

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Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, one of the most powerful clerics in Iran’s theocratic system, has issued an official fatwa — a religious decree — calling for the murder of President Donald J. Trump.

On top of that, reports from inside Iran reveal that the regime and its supporters have reportedly raised more than $40 million in a crowdfunding campaign to murder Trump.

https://worldisraelnews.com/bring-the-head-of-trump-iran-offers-million-dollar-reward-to-behead-us-president/

OBSERVATION - This news in particular has been out there for about a week and isn’t a surprise except that Iran just got done having its clock cleaned by Israel and US airstrikes. Similar call was put out during Trump’s first term. However, in today’s US political environment at least three attempted assassinations have been made against Trump, so the fields are ripe for a jihadi to try to collect the money.

***
Iran has banned the use of mobile phones inside parliamentary chambers and committee meetings due to rising security concerns, state media reported on Sunday.

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Iraq -

Iran backed Kataib Hezbollah terrorists stormed the Agriculture Directorate in Baghdad’s Saydia district, sparking clashes with Federal Police. At least 8 were injured. Iraqi police captured 14 Hezbollah terrorists.

According to sources cited by Saudi outlet Al-Hadath, Hezbollah has raised its alert level and instructed the majority of its operatives to be ready for any potential development.

Iraqi security source: Counter-Terrorism forces are being deployed to the Baghdad site amid fears of escalating violence.

OBSERVATION - Kinda obscure actions in Iraq. Especially in the light that these Iranian backed militias are supposed to be subjugated to the national military. Unclear as to motives.

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