Free Republic

Running late, post will come up after lunch today.

No post expected tomorrow - Thursday.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Authorities nabbed an armed illegal immigrant after he allegedly placed a $10,000 bounty calling for the deaths of federal immigration agents in Dallas, Texas. Agents continue to face mounting threats all across the nation.

Mexican illegal immigrant Eduardo Aguilar called for “10 dudes in Dallas with determination who aren’t afraid to [two skull emojis],” and offered “10K for each ICE agent” in an Oct. 9 TikTok post, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The latest threat comes just weeks after a sniper opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing two detainees despite intending to target federal agents.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/armed-illegal-immigrant-arrested-after-offering-bounty-of-10k-for-each-ice-agent-in-dallas

***
9th circuit court rules trump can deploy NG to Portland.

A U.S. appeals court has ruled that the U.S. government can deploy National Guard troops for federalized service in Portland. A judge had previously sided with Oregon Democrats, believing the argument that it was not needed.

OBSERVATION - Follows same transjectory as the LA decision. Expect a similar decision in the Chicago appeal. Title 10 is pretty straight forward and NG deployments fit like a hand in glove to those requirements.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - NK 2.0 is drifting away into he past, a big geriatric nothing burger.

Freeing up NG for Portland may likely cause violence to flair up for a short period as Antifa tests the mettle of these forces. City leadership will likely squeal and push an appeal to the full 9th circuit, but that would be a waste of taxpayer money, thought that hasn’t stopped them before.

The lack luster NK 2.0 may cause a slow down in Antifa attacks on facilities, but may result in targeted attacks /assassination attempts on officers and families. Big hit money is floating around out there (see above) providing an incentive as well.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

GasBuddy reports that the U.S. national average price of gasoline has dropped under $3 per gallon for the first time since 2020.

OBSERVATION - Good and bad news. Cheaper prices is wonderful, however drops like this can also be a harbinger of worsening economic conditions that could reflect a recession.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats continue to refuse to cross the isle and support the clean CR. Now the republicans are putting forth separate funding bills for essential govt workers. Democrats have already rejected an earlier bill to fund the military, and will likely reject this bill as well. They will reject any CR that doesn’t contain their expensive political add ons - to include funding health care for illegals.

Things are pretty flat on the political commentary side over NK 2.0. There have been some rumblings that the actual turnout may have been in the 3 million range, but that hasn’t been confirmed. I don’t believe it was near the 7 million mark, which is likely overstated, but 3 million seems kinda low too.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Leftists have their underwear in a knot over renovations being done at the WH saying it is unprecedented. Sorry, FDR made substantial renovations and Truman redid the whole building for example.

---

Illegal Immigration –

DHS announces the start of “Operation River Wall” to secure the Rio Grande against “illegal immigration, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at our Southern Border. The Coast Guard will surge response boats, shallow watercraft, command and control assets, and tactical teams; beginning with more than 100 boats and hundreds of personnel.

OBSERVATION - The Rio Grande region has historically been the major smuggling axis from Mexico into the US. I’m not sure of the status of the wall in this sector, so it may still be under construction, still allowing illegal traffic.

---

China -

FOLLOW UP - On October 17, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party’s Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People’s Liberation Army.

The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/has-xi-jinping-lost-control-of-chinas-military-and-china-itself/

OBSERVATION - Some analysts are theorizing that the removals were not directed by Xi, but by his political enemies. They point to the removal of the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping’s No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi’s top enforcer in the military.

Bottom line - intrigue and a very slim chance Xi will be removed. Xi has been getting increased pressure from economic failures of the past 4 years but I’m not convinced that a soft coup is going to happen.

---

Japan –

Its official. Japanese parliament has elected Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

A planned meeting between advisors to Presidents Trump and Putin has been postponed. The delay follows a lack of progress in talks between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, who had differing expectations regarding ending the war - CNN

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine is ready to stop hostilities along the current front line. The current line of contact should become the starting point for negotiations, – joint statement by Zelenskyy and other European leaders

Overnight Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 4 3-300 missiles and 98 strike drones of different types, - Ukrainian air forces

Russian losses per 21/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1130 men
+8 tanks
+37 AFVs
+23 artillery

Russian assault crushed near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv front. Around 2 companies from the 71st Motor Rifle Regiment advanced with 26 vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and “Tigrs.” By 20:00, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 2 tanks, 12 BMPs, 6 BTRs, and 2 Tigrs. The rest were either wiped out or fleeing.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Low drone/missile activity, though I find it interesting of the minor change in tactics, including missiles to low numbers of drones. In the past , drone counts were much higher before substantial numbers of missiles were added to the mix.

Growing evidence that Russian attempts to force breakthroughs is failing as up to battalion sized units are being thrown against Ukraine defenses only to be soundly defeated. Not sure if the daily count of Russian losses includes the assault near Mala Tokmachka, but this is one of the highest counts of tank and APV losses I’ve seen in quite a while. This is along the southern part of the front along a road that leads eventually to Zaporizhzhia. Months ago there were rumors of a planned Russian attack in this sector. Whether or not this is part of that is uncertain at this time. If it is, then such an offensive is off to a pretty bad foot.

Russian has continued to receive heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector, north of the fortress town. The breakthrough there earlier this summer has been decimated and only a few pockets of isolated Russian forces reportedly remain. Until now, this was the main area Russia had thrown what little tanks and armor it had available to bring relief to the isolated forces.

On a strategic level, more talk and that’s all about a ceasefire and peace settlement. Its not going to get anywhere in the near term, only when Russia feels a greater economic pinch from Ukraine petroleum strikes and stricter economic sanction will the needle start to move.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

VP Vance in Israel on ceasefire talks and inspections

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas ceasefire violations continue:

Earlier today (Monday), the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them. They were taken out.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to send a clear message to Hamas leaders in Gaza through the American supervision mechanism:

- Every Hamas terrorist found beyond the yellow line in the territory controlled by Israel must evacuate immediately. Hamas leaders will bear responsibility for any incident.

- Anyone who remains in the area will be targeted without any further warning, in order to allow IDF forces to operate freely and immediately against any threat.

***
Following the return of the body of Tal Haimi, the bodies of 15 more deceased hostages are still in the Gaza Strip.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Palestinian outlets report Israeli operations tonight across nearly 20 towns and villages around Nablus

OBSERVATION - Hamas and other radical jihadists have been attempting to gain a foothold in Judea and Samaria for years now. They have been hampered in the past by the PA who views them as a threat to their rule.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Qatar’s Emir sharply criticized Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire in Gaza, without mentioning the terrorist organization and the serious incident in Rafah where 2 IDF soldiers were killed

OBSERVATION - No mention of the violation and attack by Hamas causing it. Qatar again showing that they are not the honest broker to be involved in this ceasefire.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas continues to walk a thin line with Israel ready to pulverize remaining areas of Gaza should a serious breach of the agreement occur again.

Nearly half of the remains of Israeli hostages have been returned. However, they do not hold the leverage that the living hostages had, but Hamas is attempting to milk as much anti-Israeli sentiment out of them as possible.

Near term, I expect Hamas to continue to probe Israel positions. The ultimate goal would be to be able to snatch some soldiers for more hostage conditions to resume. They ‘ve done similar in the past. I don’t think Hamas has enough reorganized force to go toe to toe with the IDF at this stage and will need a longer period to reconstitute its forces. In doing so, they could potentially see the wrath of Israel, with Trump’s full support, fall on them again. Trump does a lot of warning which Hamas may see as weakness, but they had better remember that same pattern of talk towards Iran just before the big bunker busters fell. That is a tool available for the US to use to directly punish Hamas. We are not going in on the ground to disarm them at this stage. However, the peace ‘partiners’ of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are not really being forward about the effort to disarm either. Eventually, that will require a military solution as their pseudo diplomatic solution is failing.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran announced: The agreement with the IAEA is canceled
The Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijani, announced today the cancellation of the agreement reached in Cairo last month, which was intended to allow a gradual return of supervision and inspections at nuclear sites in Iran.

OBSERVATION - That move is unlikely to cause the snapback measures to be removed, and likely will reinforce them instead.

---

Lebanon -

American Envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack:

“If Lebanon continues to hesitate on the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally.”

OBSERVATION - This has been the state of S Lebanon since the ceasefire. Israel has already continued to act unilaterally to strike Hezbollah targets. Not clear at this stage if IDF will advance northward again to clear out the region in detail or not. However, that is not off the table.

---

Colombia -

With the snap of a finger, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said they will need to “get rid of Trump” if the U.S. President doesn’t get rid of himself. In that snap, he made certain his words were not confused for some call for minor political action. Without directly saying the words, Petro insinuated that President Trump needs to be assassinated.

In a tense sit-down that left even the interviewer rattled, Petro declared his growing disdain for President Trump. Univision’s Daniel Coronell was at the presidential palace in Bogotá when Petro made the inflammatory remarks that are now sending shockwaves across borders. His intention was clear. The threat is real.

https://thelibertydaily.com/colombian-president-issues-not-so-veiled-threat-get/

OBSERVATION - Things have been collapsing since Trump was elected. Petro is a hard core leftist in the midst of a region that is shifting to the right.

***
Colombia has recalled its U.S. ambassador after a sharp diplomatic clash between Presidents Petro and Trump over American strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean.

---

I’m aware of that and there may be some fudging of the numbers to the plus side. I’d still be cautious going forward without more verification other than Grok

I’d be cautious running with this barring further support. The claim is a Gronk report. Can’t find additional evidence of these greatly reduced numbers.

We could use some Viking Kitties again. <P

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

The World Health Organization has introduced a major overhaul of its global monitoring network, unveiling an AI-powered platform that tracks online conversations and media activity in real time.

Known as Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources 2.0 (EIOS), the system is being presented as a new step in “pandemic preparedness,” but its reach extends well beyond disease surveillance.

The upgrade is part of a growing merger between health monitoring, digital tracking, and centralized information control.

While this is described as a tool for early warning, it effectively allows a global health authority to observe the world’s digital conversations under the banner of safety.

https://reclaimthenet.org/who-eios-ai-surveillance-public-health-monitoring

OBSERVATION - AI infrastructure being developed to allow the globalists to not only monitor, but to be able to eventually control people and narrative when the next “crisis” hits. This all goes hand in glove with the desire for a digital ID that is tied into credit and monetary controls.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

MORE NK 2.0 FALLOUT

Crowing by the NK leadership was pretty muted yesterday. The 7 million claim for Saturday is weak compared to the estimated five million people participated in the June 14 event. Observers note that the turnout wasn’t dominated by unhinged young leftists or gender-confused woke warriors, but rather by white baby-boomer liberals (Q-tips).

In traditional overseas regime-change operations, the CIA and State Department typically rely on young folks for color revolutions against ‘Kings’. Yet in the Democratic Party’s regime change operation to sway sentiment polls and ignite nationwide protests/riots. As I noted yesterday, Saturday was to be a step in the development of a much larger color revolution in the US.

The left (more than 200 left-wing groups, from the ACLU and Antifa to Indivisible, have helped organize the events ) burned through tens of millions of dollars via their NGO network to support protests this weekend, and apparently got very little for their money.

***
Clashes broke out in downtown Los Angeles on Saturday as “No Kings” protesters refused to disperse after repeated orders from law enforcement, leading to at least one arrest.

The demonstration was part of nationwide “No Kings” protests aimed at opposing President Donald Trump and his administration’s policies. While the event began peacefully, tensions escalated when some protesters stayed in the streets after police declared an unlawful assembly.

Los Angeles police formed a skirmish line and issued dispersal orders, warning protesters they would be arrested if they did not leave. According to ABC 7, at least one person was taken into custody as officers in riot gear on horseback moved in near the federal building downtown to push the crowd back.

Police said nearly 100 agitators marched toward Aliso and Alameda streets, with some using lasers and flashlights against officers and even targeting an LAPD pilot.

https://thepostmillennial.com/la-no-kings-protest-turns-into-riot-at-least-one-arrested-as-violent-crowd-refuses-to-disperse#google_vignette

***
Social media was flooded with interviews with participants of NK 2.0. A large number of them were advocating more assassinations of Trump and associated staff.

At separate “No Kings” event in Chicago, a man reportedly urged attendees to shoot U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
“You gotta grab a gun, we gotta turn around the guns on this fascist system. These ICE agents gotta get shot and wiped out,” the man, who stood in front of a banner for the Progressive Labor Party, apparently said. “The same machinery that’s on full display right there has to get wiped out.”

Another “No Kings” protester in Chicago seemingly made a “neck shot” gesture after passing a TPUSA counter protestors. She was later identified as a school teacher - with action being taken.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - The NK leadership may likely need to go back to the drawing board to try to generate ways to motivate protestor turnout. Not mentioned above was the abundance of paid protestors who received between $200-$500 to show up. The current political environment shows the tone deafness of the left. The general population is happy with the Trump actions on illegals, the economy and making our country safer. They are finding it gather traction in that environment.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***

The FBI is investigating after the Secret Service found a suspicious hunting stand with a direct line of sight to where President Trump exits Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport - FOX News

OBSERVATION - Doubt that this is a coincidence, but a deliberate placement for an opportunity to take another shot at Trump at a future date. Indicates a substantial intel effort to identify recurring patterns in Trump’s travels and try to covertly establish shooting positions.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

As noted above, NK 2.0 was pretty much a flop. Talking heads Sunday didn’t seem to pressure republicans on the point.

Now back to the govt shutdown. Among other looming factors, a big one is on the horizon and that is the loss of EBT and SNAP for low income types. Should the dems continue to block the CR, they may unleash a broad wave of civil unrest as an unintended consequence. I think Schumer et al didn’t think the republicans would remain monolithic against the democrat ‘compromise’.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Leftists heads were exploding over the memes put out with Trump as king.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin has reportedly hinted he’s willing to return occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to Ukraine, in exchange for full Russian control over Donetsk, according to The Washington Post. He told Trump this would be a condition for ending the war. The report also says Trump’s envoy, Witkoff, pressured the Ukrainian side to accept this deal.

Trump denies ever telling Zelensky to give up Donbas. “I never discussed that,” he said, adding the U.S. believes both sides should freeze the war along current front lines.

OBSERVATION - If Witcoff thinks that Russian speaking presence in Donbas is justification for turn over to Russia - he better pull his head out of his you know what. Russian control of the state effectively penetrates and deeply so, Ukraine’s eastern defensive system and move the Russia front dangerously close to Kyiv and other major Ukrainian towns. There is no guarantee that Russia wont violate any agreement and launch a new attack at a later date, after putin has been able to reconstruct the Russia army.

Personnel Issues –

Some OSINT analysts suggest that Russian casualties have recently been underestimated, especially in the Pokrovsk front. Recent numbers believed to be as high as 50K over the past month or so due largely to the focused efforts in that sector.

Also, observations that Russia is losing the ability to get replacements from their population and are increasingly looking to other countries to fill the gap in manning the war effort.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on October 20, Russia launched 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 60 attack drones, including around 40 Shaheds, from occupied Crimea and Russian territory. Ukrainian air defenses, jets, SAMs, EW units, and mobile fire teams, intercepted or jammed 38 drones. However, 3 missiles and 20 drones struck 12 locations.

Russian losses per 20/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+890 men
+2 tanks
+45 artillery
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Lenino(Molodetske) of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukrainian military had liquidated Russian saboteur group that infiltrated area of railway station in Pokrovsk

Analysis and Future Operations —

Seemingly minor ebb in the flow of battle, both in the air and on the ground. Noting the weather forecast, this could be due in part to deteriorating conditions.

Noting an interesting evolution in Ukrainian defense against Shahed’s - the development and deployment of kinetic kill drones. These cheap (about $1000 ea) are designed to take down drones via impact. Cost benefit being a big savings over more expensive missiles and allowing those missiles to be used to protect more critical areas.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel reopened access for aid to Gaza

- IAF airstrikes hit underground targets avoided earlier over concerns of the presence of hostages

——— GENERAL ——————————-

President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the U.S. thinks rogue Hamas militants might be behind the shooting in Rafah on Sunday. “We think maybe the leadership isn’t involved in that, that it’s some rebels within. It’s going to be handled toughly, but properly”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Following yesterday’s Hamas attack on IDF, aircraft struck with vengeance.

Summary of the wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip: Dozens of fighter jets attacked about 83 Hamas targets (using approximately 120 munitions), including terror infrastructures and many tunnels, with an emphasis on Rafah and a significant infrastructure in Nuseirat.

Several targeted eliminations by drones were carried out in the central and northern Gaza Strip - dozens of terrorists were successfully killed.

Netanyahu decided to close all crossings to the Gaza Strip and halt the delivery of humanitarian aid in response to Hamas’ violation of the ceasefire. The closure was later lifted

The Air Force attacked a number of terrorists who posed a danger to forces east of Khan Yunis this morning.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces launch a campaign of raids and arrests in the village of Al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Probably with Trump’s urging, Israel has scaled back its retaliatory strikes against Hamas. A very key observation is the reports that Israel hit major underground bases they avoided during previous fighting because of the presence of living hostages. Those hostages are no longer there and I’ll bet my bars that those hostages provided substantial info on locations of those bases to Israeli Intel. As I’ve said before, Israel will be more lethal towards these underground sites now that the living hostages are safe.

Trump’s comments that this was an act of rogue Hamas elements has the taste of PR to it. Hamas leadership has clearly stated they will not lay down their arms and ceasefire attacks like this are a common event among their group. Perhaps Trump is offering a face saving cover to Hamas to bring them back on line.

The next couple of days will decide if Hamas is going to pull back from the brink or go full metal jihad again. Israel has already shown they are more than ready to rain death on Hamas.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Sunday that the United States conducted a strike against a seventh boat Friday as the Trump administration ramps up its war on alleged drug smuggling.

---

Central / South America General-

It looks like Bolivia is done with socialism. For the first time since 2005, the country has officially elected a candidate who is not a part of Evo Morales’ Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. This comes as Bolivia faces a serious economic crisis — something that seems to go hand-in-hand with years of socialism.

OBSERVATION - More shifting to the right in central/south america. This win also puts a barrier to continued push by China, Russia, and Iran into the region.

---

Colombia -

President Trump announced, “AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF PAYMENT OR SUBSIDIES, WILL NO LONGER BE MADE TO COLOMBIA,” citing President Gustavo Petro’s encouragement of massive drug production that ends up in the U.S.

---

Phew - so glad I woke up and there was no king in America today.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

“No Kings 2.0” Initial Summary

Multiple, though subjective, observations on NK 2.0 suggest that the turnout wasn’t anywhere near what was projected. According to a press release, No Kings says approximately 7 million people participated in yesterday’s marches across the United States, calling it “one of the largest single-day nationwide demonstrations in U.S. history” This is far short of the 10-12 million hoped for.
It was so bad that the left was circulating a 2017 image of a protest in Boston. According to Grok, NBC is using footage from 2017 and labeling it as Live. Observers noted that this 2017 rally was larger than today’s turnout.

In NYC, crowds rapidly broke up after 1 PM local - like the end of the pay for the participants.

Demographics suggested no enlargement of their movement. As observed in 1.0, the majority of the participants were gray haired, white, retiree aged people. NBC Boston had to call it like it is upon observing the “No Kings” crowd...
“An OLDER crowd! A LOT of white hair! You see Q-tips...not a lot of young people!”

Q-tip - now Ive heard it all. I don’t think I have enough gray hair on my head to even come close to making a good Q-tip.

More radical elements were trying to use this event to recruit activists that could be swung to violence at a later date were likely sadly disappointed in their efforts. Aged hippies from the 60s and 70s don’t do well in a scrum.

Though touting the cry that they were defending democracy, speeches and signs throughout the 2700 sites speak a different story. It has already been demonstrated that Soros and other leftist/globalist billionaires provided the funding for this event.

The national organizers of the protests circulated a “Songs and Chants” sheet online, outlining the themes and messages that participants are expected to chant during marches in cities including Washington, D.C., New York City, and Portland.

The chants emphasize opposition to private education, property ownership, and capitalist structures, framing the demonstrations as a demand for “economic justice.”

One of the chants listed reads, “Education is a right. That’s why today we stand and fight. Oh oh oh oh oh, privatization’s got to go.”

The message calls for ending private education and expanding publicly funded systems, a recurring theme in the protests’ materials.

Other chants include, “I went down to the rich man’s house. And I took back what he stole from me. Took back my dignity, took back my humanity,” and “Protect the land and water. What do we want – protect our future.”
The lyrics for the latter chant note that “future” can be substituted with phrases such as “housing for all people” or “public education,” depending on the march’s focus.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/10/soros-funded-no-kings-protests-demand-end-to-private-schools-nationwide-watch/

This is blatant promotion of socialism - and completely incompatible with democracy or this US constitution (which they also claimed they were protecting).

Overall, there was very little violence associated with the main protests, however, that didn’t stop speakers from advocating violence. The Chicago mayor accused President Donald Trump of wanting a ‘Civil War’ rematch during a No Kings protest.

“Mayor Brandon Johnson ignited the crowd on Saturday by telling liberals to be ‘ready to defend this democracy’ and to be ‘ready to fight fascism.’
‘Are you prepared to destroy authoritarianism once and for all? We’ll let the world hear you, no kings!’ he said in an impassioned speech. “

“He warned Chicago residents to be prepared for a ‘rematch of the Civil War.’
‘The attempt to divide and conquer this nation will not prevail because when the people are united, justice always prevails,’ he said. “

“’If my ancestors, as slaves, can lead the greatest general strike in the history of this country, taking it to the ultra-rich and big corporations, we can do the same today.’”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15204165/no-kings-protests-national-guard.html

The most aggressive Antifa action associated with NK 2.0 was once again at the Portland ICE facility.

Antifa had posted flyers around Portland with addresses of other federal properties for their comrades to attack. The goal is to strike elsewhere while federal resources are focused on the ICE facility. Democrats have sued to block troops from protecting federal property in the state.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1979650931814719762?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Crowd grew so that by 4 PM the protest had shifted to a riot with federal agents using tear gas on rioters who were assaulting agents.

Final note for today. 2.0 lacked the motivation organizers were hoping for, growing a movement that could politically move the needle towards the left’s favor. In reality, it looks like protest fatigue is settling in. First the Indivisible protests, then NK 1.0 now NK 2.0 - all within a year.

***
The terror Antifa propaganda site “It’s Going Down” has officially announced it will be shutting down.

This coincides with the Trump administration’s crackdown on organized crime within Antifa networks. Over the years, “It’s Going Down” has posted numerous claims of responsibility for domestic terrorist attacks, including an attempt by an Antifa militant to derail a train, which led to the website being mentioned in a federal criminal complaint. The website has also posted manuals on carrying out crimes and evading detection for terrorist attacks.

OBSERVATIONS - Designation as a terrorist organization is causing Antifa et al to go to ground. The internet never forgets.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

I expect the leftists will try to leverage the NK 2.0 to political advantage on today’s talk shows. However the themes and claims echoed there have long been put down and is nothing fresh, so expect more regurgitation of spoiled talking points.

Mix in more about the govt shutdown. Some have thought Schumer is going to relent on the CR after the protest. Will he or won’t he? May get some better feeling today.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump and other agencies have officially signed on to bluesky, the uber leftist answer to “X” and have been raising a storm of trolling. Immensely funny memes and comments that instantly caused the liberal heads to explode. As much as I hold AI off at arms length, Trump’s crew masterfully uses it for video clips nailing the democrats.

---

Illegal Immigration –

Federal agents just wrapped up a major sweep in Massachusetts, hauling in over 1,400 illegal aliens who had no business being on American streets. Operation Patriot 2.0, running from early September through the end of the month, zeroed in on the worst offenders hiding out in sanctuary strongholds like Boston. Agents nabbed murderers, rapists, child predators, drug dealers, and hardened gangbangers from outfits like MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.

The tally speaks for itself: 1,406 arrests, with more than 600 carrying rap sheets loaded with violent crimes. Six were confirmed members of transnational gangs, and others were tight associates. Then there are the 277 who thumbed their noses at deportation orders, plus three flagged as known or suspected terrorists. Several came with Interpol Red Notices or warrants from their home countries for serious felonies.

https://discern.tv/massive-number-of-illegal-alien-murderers-rapists-and-gang-members-arrested-by-ice-in-boston/

OBSERVATION - Boston’s mayor resisted (and continues to do so) ICE efforts in Boston. Out of those numbers were uncounted self deportations or departures from the Boston area.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 62 strike drones, 40 shot down or taken out by EW(?) - Ukrainian air forces

Ukrainian attack drones just struck Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, reportedly setting part of the complex ablaze. The fire can be seen from the nearby city of Samara.

Ukraine drones also hit the Orenburg gas processing plant

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pretty standard day of fighting. With the continued low drone count, I expect the nest Russian blitz to be very soon.

Some OSINT observers and analysts are suggesting that the Russian effort in the Pokrovsk has cost Russian dearly. They note that it has pushed causalities back into the 35 - 42 K range / month while only being able to backfill 30 - 32K / month.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Europol and Latvian law enforcement dismantled five servers and seized 1,200 SIM box devices along with 40,000 active SIM cards

The criminal network was connected to more than 1,700 cyber fraud cases in Austria and 1,500 in Latvia, resulting in losses of several million euros - including €4.5 million in Austria and €420,000 in Latvia

OBSERVATION - This is becoming a grave concern. Two similar facilities were found in the US over the past few months. This suggests that there are many more floating around out there.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

Ceasefire appears to be holding.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas carried out multiple attacks across the “Yellow” line on IDF elements

- Netanyahu in talks with council on broader response to those attacks

- Remains of two more hostages released by Hamas.

- Hamas totally redefines the ceasefire agreement.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

US State Dep.: “The US has informed the guarantor nations of the Gaza peace agreement of credible reports indicating an imminent ceasefire violation by Hamas against the people of Gaza” This planned attack against Palestinian civilians would constitute a direct and grave violation of the ceasefire agreement and undermine the significant progress achieved through mediation efforts. The guarantors demand Hamas uphold its obligations under the ceasefire terms.

Should Hamas proceed with this attack, measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire.

The United States and the other guarantors remain resolute in our commitment to ensuring the safety of civilians, maintaining calm on the ground, and advancing peace and prosperity for the people of Gaza and the region as a whole.

Hamas: We call on the US administration to stop repeating the misleading narrative and to address its repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement, most notably its support for these groups and the provision of safe havens for them within the areas under its control.

***

The Israeli military said on Sunday that Hamas terrorists have carried out “multiple attacks” against Israeli forces beyond the “yellow line” buffer zone, including a rocket-propelled grenade and sniper fire, calling it a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire.

The IDF has confirmed two terrorists killed in Jabalia and believes at least one of the attacks was an attempted kidnapping of soldiers. Reports also indicate injuries among Israeli troops.

Israeli aircraft are now hitting terror targets in the Rafah area.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is holding a situation assessment following the serious incident this morning in Rafah.

Discussions are focused on resuming airstrikes and possibly scaling back aid, pending coordination with Trump.

***
Hamas leader Mohammad Nazzal in Qatar:
“Hamas will never surrender its weapons. This is non-negotiable.…We will gain either victory or martyrdom.”

“Hamas will not disarm. We will maintain control over Gaza’s security. This ceasefire is only a temporary ‘hudna’, a pause to rebuild our strength and regain some breathing room.”

***
Hamas transferred the bodies of two hostages to Israel

Netanyahu’s office: The Rafah crossing will not open until Hamas fulfills its commitments to return the bodies of the kidnapped soldiers

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The situation in southern Gaza is rapidly deteriorating. The attack overnight was coordinated and serious. Trump is already upset over Hamas killing Gazan civilians and their refusal to adhere to the signed peace agreement. With this act, he may allow Netanyahu to unleash the dogs once again. Trump may also urge Israeli restraint, instead pressuring Qatar to put Mohammad Nazzal in a head lock and force them back into line from their end. I don’t expect much from Qatar, they have been big Hamas supporters for so long. But if Qatar fails to reign in Hamas at this stage, their credibility will be further shot to pieces.

Until coordinator between Netanyahu and Trump is completed, I expect Israel to target Hamas elements in the Rafah area in a weapon’s free manner. Spreading it to other parts of Gaze could be next. This time around it will be substantially different since the living hostages have been returned to safety and are no longer an operational deterrent to the IDF.

Many have recognized the Hamas attempt at “hudna” in this fight. Problem is the agreement they signed would prevent it, were it to be followed.

What did Hama gain with their actions the past couple of weeks. Well, a limited time and breather space to reorganize and regroup. Shift of refugees back into N Gaza may complicate things, but not to the extent they might have wanted. Hamas doesn’t have the support it had and with this attack is beginning to burn bridges with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey - all of which signed on as guarantors of the peace. Hamas is flipping them the bird.

---

Syria -

Netanyahu:
“We will remain on Mount Hermon and in the areas we entered in Syria.”
“We will not allow attacks on the Druze in Syria.”
“The agreement will be about the demilitarization of southern Syria.”

OBSERVATION - Nothing really new here, but a continued, clear statement of Israeli goals and policy. A demilitarized S Syria keeps the jihadist radicals that support the regime in Damascus at bay. The result being a more peaceful border area for Israel.

---

OK, today I remembered to add the ping list :)

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

US-led alliance wins a year’s delay in adoption of green shipping deal

The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework will be up for approval again in October 2026, after the US and Saudi Arabia persuaded countries not to vote on it as planned

Joe Lo News editor

…
In April 2025, governments provisionally agreed the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF), which would penalise high-emitting ships around the world and use the money to fund the transition to cleaner vessels and fuels.
…
The NZF was scheduled to set emissions reduction targets for ships starting in 2028. But this – and the rest of the framework’s timeline – have now been plunged into doubt. Although some technical work can continue, political progress will have to wait until October 2026 when delegates will next take up the issue of whether to adopt the NZF.

Why a deferral rather than a cancellation?

Green obsessed member states and UN officials are likely still clinging to the hope they can shift the political landscape in favour of supporting this new tax on prosperity.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/17/winning-global-shipping-carbon-tax-one-year-deferral/

OBSERVATION - They will never give up their goals and are very willing to play a long game to get what they want, just like the delays in the WHO’s pandemic ‘treaty’, which only moved incrementally forward this year. For them, shifting the political landscape means finding some way to neuter Trump and the US will not be be under such a tax scam.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

Weekend forecast - There is increasing potential for varying levels of violence and vandalism associated with tomorrow’s NK 2.0 event. This time around there seem to be more calls for violence - see below.

Democrats trying to tie into the current shut down to gain attendance. The organizers of the “No Kings” protests say that gatherings will take place at more than 2,500 locations around the US.

NK 2.0 may spill over into anti-ICE direct actions in the usual places.

Overall, conditions are more unstable than in previous weekends.

***
Governors in Texas and Virginia have activated their state’s National Guard troops, however it is unclear how visible the military presence will be.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93xgyp1zv4o

OBSERVATION - In TX, potential threats of Antifa related violence is one reason for activation. Most likely area would be Austin, a hotbed of violent liberal activity.

***
Antifa have been posting flyers around the ICE facility in Portland calling for their violent militants to embed within the “No Kings” protest and agitate for violence. The call for that direct action originates on the Antifa online collective, Crimethinc.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1979175581099987322?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
George Soros’ foundations are funding the “No Kings” protests that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and tens of thousands of protesters will be participating in on Saturday.

Soros, a billionaire investor and notorious Democratic Party donor, is founder of the Open Society Foundations.

In 2023, the foundation, through the Open Society Action Fund, issued a two-year grant of $3 million to the Indivisible organization. The grant was “to support the grantee’s social welfare activities,” according to the Open Society Foundation’s website.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/soros-foundation-helping-fund-anti-trump-no-kings-protests-nationwide

MORE RELATED -
The Democratic Party’s dark-money NGO network, bankrolled by left-wing billionaires, is reportedly preparing to activate a coordinated, color-revolution-style mobilization across the U.S. this weekend - a replay of failed agitation attempts seen earlier this year targeting President Trump and Elon Musk. The operation, marketed under the “No Kings” banner and portrayed publicly as a grassroots movement, in reality functions as a professionalized protest-industrial complex. Its composition includes a blend of paid activists, white boomers suffering from Stage 4 Trump Derangement Syndrome, and a smaller contingent of organic, unhinged leftists who recite MSNBC talking points by heart.

Drilling down into the dark-money network funding No Kings are investigative researchers Peter Schweizer and Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute. Their new bombshell report exposes how the protest-industrial complex, dubbed “Riot, Inc.,” is, in their words, “FUELED BY BILLIONAIRES.”

“We traced $294,487,641 to the official No Kings 2.0 partners & organizers...all funneled through the same “Riot Inc.” dark-money networks: Arabella network $79.7M+ Soros network $72.1M+ Ford network $51.7M+, Tides $45.5M+, Rockefeller $28.6M+, and Buffett $16.6M+,” Bruner wrote on X.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fueled-billionaires-no-kings-prepares-color-revolution-style-mobilization-against-trump

OBSERVATION - The big buck communistic billionaires who’ve been funding these ‘protests’ has been pretty well known, and without their support, this ‘grass roots’ movement would never have gotten off the ground.

***
Fired CNN host Don Lemon argued that “black people and brown people” need to start carrying guns in the event that they’re swept up in an ICE raid - and indicated that it’s his belief that this is what the Founding Fathers had in mind when they crafted the Amendment.

Lemon made the comment on “The Left Hook with Wajahat Ali,” where he claimed that he was not “condoning or promoting violence” but that he was tired of “the niceties” while ICE agents were “rounding [people] up off the street without due process” and “sending them off to a gulag.”

“If you believe in the Second Amendment, if you believe in the Constitution, Black people, Brown people of all stripes, whether you’re an Indian American or a Mexican American or whoever you are, go out in your place where you live and get a gun legally. Get a license to carry legally,” Lemon said. “Because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away without due process as a citizen, isn’t that what the Second Amendment was written for?”

“Nobody is illegal,” Lemon argued, pretending to not understand that being an “illegal” alien pertains to their immigration status, not their status as a human being. “It is a misdemeanor to cross the border.”

https://silverloch.com/crazy-don-lemon-now-calling-on-people-to-arm-themselves-against-ice

OBSERVATION - Lemon is a wash out, but is still dangerous as the extremists of the left still follow him. He is speaking what they already want and plan to do. As such he is a useful idiot.

***
More Incitement (Stoicastric violence?)
Democrat governor who called Republicans “Nazis” and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “Gestapo” accused the White House of hate speech Thursday.

Responding to a social media post of comments by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) accused the administration of inciting hate:

“The White House says outrageous things to make you hate your neighbor.
“Your neighbor isn’t the problem. The White House is.”

Department for Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement that Walz’s “Gestapo” comments were “sickening,” and claimed similar rhetoric and demonization of ICE officers has led to a 413% increase in assaults on immigration officers.

In February, Gov. Walz was caught on camera accusing Republicans of being “fascists and Nazis” who are “stealing” the U.S.:

“I see the pundits on TV — ‘What’s wrong with the Democratic Party?’ What’s wrong is our country is being stolen by fascists and Nazis.”

Gov. Walz refused to apologize for the remark.

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/10/17/gov-tim-walz-gop-are-nazis-who-say-divisive-things-ice

OBSERVATION - Incitement to violence as the leftists are trying to normalize the characterization of their opponents as a group seen to be inhuman, thus justifying any violence directed against them.

***
Assassination culture.

That is where the Democratic Party is today.

Yet another example comes from Winnebago County, Wisconsin. The OshKosh Democrats put up a booth at the local farmer’s market, and among the things they handed out were bracelets with “Is he dead yet?” printed on them.

(NYPost) Wisconsin Democrats were tossed from a farmers market after a vile volunteer handed out “Is he dead yet?” bracelets — including to a young child — in an apparent reference to President Trump.
The Winnebago County Democratic Party will no longer host a table at the Oshkosh Farmers Market as incendiary rhetoric against Trump and his allies has ramped up since the Republican returned to the White House this year.
The latest instance of menacing words came when a volunteer handed out the hateful bracelet to an 8-year-old child, who then showed it to their mother on Sunday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2025/10/17/democratic-party-hands-out-is-he-dead-yet-bracelets-in-wisconsin-n3807956

OBSERVATION - More attempts to normalize violence directed against Trump and his supporters.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The U.S. budget deficit edged lower for 2025 as record-setting tariff collections helped offset what also were unprecedented numbers for payments on the spiraling national debt.
The red ink would have been worse had it not been for a massive surge in customs duties and a September surplus of $198 billion that also set a record for the month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/us-budget-deficit-lower-in-2025-tariffs-debt-payments-both-at-records.html

OBSERVATION - We’ve not seen tariffs of this magnitude in our lifetimes, therefore, the impacts are hard to predict. They have put the brakes on the deficit, temporally.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The New York Times reports Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down

The officer, Adm. Alvin Holsey, is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region in what it says is a major counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.

It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is suddenly departing, less than a year into what is typically a three-year job, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But one current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-masses-10000-troops-near-venezuela-top-admiral-resigns

OBSERVATION - There are two ongoing theories of the reason behind his stepping down. The first is apparent from the article - he didn’t support the president’s policy in the Caribbean. But there is a second rumor that this general was deep into DEI and apparently was unwilling, again, to follow the new direction of national leadership. For both he was probably given the option to leave the easy way or the hard.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Former special counsel Jack Smith was referred to the Department of Justice office that deals with professional misconduct — as well as for disbarment by two state panels — following “deeply disturbing revelations” that he surreptitiously obtained congressional Republicans’ call logs.

A Friday letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi led by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) accused former President Joe Biden’s DOJ of having “spied on duly elected members of Congress” and demanding that Smith be investigated by the department’s Office of Professional Responsibility.

The elected officials also accused Smith — whose eventual federal cases against President Trump received materials from the FBI’s “Arctic Frost” probe — of having infringed on the constitutional rights of elected officials and “trampled on this separation of powers principle that underlies our system of government.”

https://nypost.com/2025/10/17/us-news/ex-trump-special-counsel-jack-smith-referred-to-doj-for-probe-on-professional-misconduct-potential-state-disbarment/

OBSERVATION - The “No Kingers” clearly overlook this abuse of govt power. This is just the tip of the iceberg on this scumbag.

---

China -

Chinese military leadership was thrown into chaos after Chinese President Xi Jinping fired a slew of his top military leaders in an ongoing purge, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced Thursday.

Xi ousted nine military officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Friday after the government accused the officials of “serious violations of party discipline,” according to the Defense Ministry. The purge has reportedly shaken the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to its core as Xi moves to tighten his iron grip on power in the nation and its bureaucracy.

“In accordance with the Party regulations and national laws, the CPC Central Committee decided to expel the nine from the Party and transfer their suspected criminal matters to military procuratorial authorities for further review,” the Chinese Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

https://thelibertydaily.com/peoples-liberation-army-shaken-its-core-as-xi/

OBSERVATION - Xi seems to be nervous about the loyalty of his military in the face of severe economic conditions and his goals of a military build up. One obvious question is whether the shake up provides more competent leadership, or more boot lickers.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 164 strike drones of different types and 3 S-300 missiles, - Ukrainian air forces

Ukraine drones successfully struck the 500 kV Veshkama substation, an essential node linking the Urals and central Russia’s power grids. Explosions were also reported overnight in the Moscow region. Airports in Nizhny Novgorod, Penza, Samara, Tambov, Sochi, Kaluga, Ulyanovsk, and Ufa temporarily halted air traffic.

Ukraine’s General Staff confirms a wave of precision strikes on Russian military and fuel-energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight. Targets hit include an oil depot in Hvardiiske (RVS-2000 tank struck), the “Hvardiysky” Rosrezerv site in Karierne, a fuel depot in Dzhankoi, and a Nebo-U radar in Yevpatoria.

Russian losses per 18/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1150 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+41 artillery
+2 MLRS

Zelensky met with Trump yesterday in what BBC News described as a “friendly atmosphere”. As for the Tomahawks, those talks have been paused for now, according to Ukrainian officials.
Trump said he hopes to end the conflict without having to resort to releasing Tomahawks to Ukraine.

***

Analysis and Future Operations —

We’ll have to see how serious putin is to meet with Trump again.

Of note on strikes against major power stations. They contain major transformers that in some cases are one of a kind or have small stockpiles (at best). This is a similar weakness the US power grid has as well. Russia and Ukraine may be able to do some limited work arounds, but that will place stresses on the grids that later strikes can quickly eliminate.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

Delegations from Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban government are set to hold talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of fighting that left dozens dead and hundreds injured.

A 48-hour truce on Wednesday halted the clashes, but fresh fighting has since erupted.

Central to the dispute is Pakistan’s accusation that Afghanistan harbors militants responsible for attacks on its soil, a charge the Taliban government denies.

https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-and-afghanistan-set-for-crisis-talks-in-doha/a-74408862?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- More hostage remains returned to Israel

- IAF hits Hezbollah in S Lebanon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel says body of hostage handed over by Hamas to the Red Cross overnight and subsequently transferred to Israel has been identified as Eliyahu Margalit

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The current question I have is how long will Israel wait for Hamas to start being disarmed before they act? With the sudden reappearance of uniformed Hamas, surveillance activities (both HUMINT and IMINT) will provide a good data base to see where these terrotisivt are now operating out from.

A lot probably depends on Trump’s perception of Hamas’ intransigence against the ceasefire agreement.

Otherwise, I expect just more of the same. IAF hitting Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon as the govt there fails to up hold its end of the deal to disarm and remove them from the region.

Things in Syria seem to be settling down, but that can quickly change.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran says it is no longer bound by the “restrictions” related to its nuclear program — AFP

OBSERVATION - Well, now its official. They never felt bound by any restrictions or agreement in the past.

---

Lebanon -

Over the past 24 hours, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, officials said Saturday.

After residents near the Lebanon border reported Hezbollah operatives approaching the fence, the Galilee Division commander reassured locals while Israel launched major airstrikes and prepared for its biggest divisional drill since the war began.

IDF is intensifying pressure on Hezbollah amid the militant group’s attempts to rebuild its capabilities. Over the past 24 hours, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, officials said Saturday.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjgvjwlrgl

***
The Lebanese government promised to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025, as part of this agreement Israel included they would target infrastructure related to Hezbollah activities.

OBSERVATION - Well, we’re waiting.

---

Misc of Note –

I wanted to separate this out here so it wasn’t buried in the CW2 section — as it is important in its on stand.

Forward Observer analysts note the following in association with NK 2.0 today -

According to social media posts and their website, Indivisible and the No Kings protest campaign have chosen YELLOW as their unity color.

A color is an integral part of a Color Revolution because it’s a symbol of national unity against, in many cases, a dictator or autocratic regime. Of the nine classic Color Revolutions since 2000, six have coincided with challenged national elections (on the ground they were stolen), one occurred following the assassination of a prime minister, and two were triggered following the illegal expansion of executive authority.

There are three phases of this current movement:

protest >
resistance >
evolution.

We’re currently in the protest phase and transitioning into the resistance phase, which will feature both protests and nonviolent actions like civil disobedience, occupations, boycotts, and strikes, among other tactics. Protest organizers have previously said they would soon call on protestors and activists to “escalate” their tactics (presumably from protest to resistance) “in the months ahead.” Finally, the revolution phase is the unspoken part of this movement, with revolution remaining an available course of action dependent on the outcome and perceived legality of the 2028 election.

Incorporated into these phases are attacks on key sectors of society -

The Six Pillars describe the underlying foundations that keep a government functioning. They are: Business, Labor, Faith, Education, Civil Service, and Military/Police. Gene Sharp — the godfather of Color Revolutions — explains:
“By themselves, rulers cannot collect taxes, enforce repressive laws and regulations, keep trains running on time, prepare national budgets, direct traffic, manage ports, print money, repair roads, keep markets supplied with food, make steel, build rockets, train the police and army, issue postage stamps or even milk a cow. People provide these services… If people would stop providing these skills, the ruler could not rule.”

In short, a government — a dictator, an autocracy, even a legitimately elected president — depends on these lines of support to function. When a resistance movement convinces elements of these pillars with withdraw their support, the regime collapses.

Think boycotts and other directed protests/actions.

Indivisible and the No Kings protest campaign said they selected YELLOW for their movement because it’s “bright and unmistakable,” and because of yellow’s historical significance. Protestors have worn yellow in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Ukraine to signify their national resistance and opposition to autocracy and invasion.

Protesters at this weekend’s No Kings 2.0 national day of resistance are being asked to wear yellow as a sign of unity and solidarity against the perceived injustices being committed by the Trump administration.

OBSERVATION -
I’m no color expert, but the phrase and organization has been used quite a lot over the past couple decades, focused on Europe and the middle east. I’m doing my homework on this subject so I can see things developing better.

To me the progression listed above depends a lot on the radicalization of the left. Escalation depends a lot on the willingness of the supporters to expose themselves to leverage more pressure on an administration - in this developing case Trump. This radicalization also depends upon the left gain more popular support over the policies of Trump. Right now, nationally Trump is experiencing some of the highest approval levels of any recent president - now surpassing even 0bama. To sway public opinion, the left has continued to blast blatant falsehoods and misrepresentations of Trump policies and actions over its MSM resources and blitzing social media. A prime example is the attempt to switch credit for the ceasefire in Gaza to biden over Trump. Other actions are too numerous to mention, but they’ve been documented many here in FR and TM over the months and years.

This brings about a whole new urgency to target financial support by leftist billionaires going to violent groups like Antifa and allied groups. As that funding chain gets broken up, links further up get disrupted as well and the funding that this early stage of a color revolution hits a speed bump.

What is the path were are on?

Let me double back on the three phases of this current movement: protest > resistance > revolution.

We are well into the “protest” phase, where Indivisible and affiliated leftist groups are trying to gain support and growing ‘peaceful’ protests. They are trying to build legitimacy for passive and active resistance.

Resistance phase is still in its infancy giving that traction is still developing under “protest”. There have been civil disobedience and other directed efforts to sway the “pillars” of the society and embarrass the Trump administration. Their goal is to trigger Trump to over react and give them fuel for further actions. Hence the side discussions of actions against ICE triggering declaration of the Insurrection Act to “prove” the King is a tyrant and is moving to martial law for the whole country. FO analysts suggest that over the next two years this phase my increase - given the midterms and their outcome. At this time looking into the crystal ball, the democrats are in a pickle and stand to loose a substantial number of seats in the House. Outcome from the Schumer shutdown may endanger Senate democrats. The left could seize on the results as illegitimate to bolster their protests. Part of this claim to illegitimacy is revealed in the current redistricting wars that may cause the democrats to lose as many as 30 seats in the House.

The final phase - revolution - would fit the next presidential election cycle. Legitimacy of the MAGA revolution to pass the baton to probably Vance and turmoil generated during the campaign season and beyond would add fire to the revolution.

I think that one must accept what the leftists are saying at face value. The fact that organizers of NK 2.0 have announced a selection of a color - YELLOW - to symbolize their movement is pretty clear that they are operating under a color revolution design and organization. It is important that we recognize this and the actions associated with each stage so that we can track and possibly disrupt their efforts.

Finally, in the light of this understanding of a broader organization of rebellion, the actions of Antifa, marxist moslems and other radical elements make some more sense. They are tied into the goals and efforts of these color revolutionary leaders.

I’m working to understand this better.

ping above

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

Weekend forecast - There is increasing potential for varying levels of violence and vandalism associated with tomorrow’s NK 2.0 event. This time around there seem to be more calls for violence - see below.

Democrats trying to tie into the current shut down to gain attendance.

NK 2.0 may spill over into anti-ICE direct actions in the usual places.

Overall, conditions are more unstable than in previous weekends.

***
NO KINGS -

It is incredible the social media blitz the left is throwing out there to rally the troops for NK 2.0. In some cases vile, others complete fabrications and repetition of points long debunked. They also seem to be followed by the bots cheering them on.

Also is a growing voice for adding violence to these protests in some manner. The previous marches did nothing to move the needle in their favor. Now, activists are reaching into the violence tool box to try to crank up the pressure. On the extreme end, some activists/influencers on the left are even calling for BLM like riots.

***
Gavin Newsom says that people attending the “No Kings” protest this weekend, need to DECLARE their independence from the US government..

OBSERVATION - As I noted earlier, this is a parallel current to the build up of the threat of violence this weekend. Borderline call for insurrection?

***
Crimethinc @Thinc_Exworkers, one of the largest and most influential violent Antifa organizing sites, has released a call-to-action for anarchist extremists to infiltrate the “No Kings” protest on Oct. 18.

The last No Kings protest was marred by deadly violence when one of the volunteer “peacekeepers” fired upon an armed far-left man, thinking the man was a MAGA threat, who was also there for “security.” The liberal “peacekeeper” shot and killed an innocent bystander. No one has been charged.

Antifa often embeds in larger liberal protests, using the crowd as human shields to commit vandalism or violence and then blend back in to evade detection. When police make arrests or use crowd control tools, lying journalists say peaceful protesters are being arrested. Antifa also uses these events to recruit and radicalize people by distributing texts or inviting attendees to training events or after-action meetings. Antifa are desperate to garner more mainstream support after President Trump announced he intends to dismantle their terror cells.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1978924902355783875?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
(FO) No Kings 2.0 organizers and activists said they are preparing for potential escalation with federal agents and military personnel during the planned 18 October demonstrations. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said it is providing de-escalation and know-your-rights training for activists, and is preparing for demonstrations in cities currently under federal surges. Portland, OR officials said they are also preparing for potential escalations between demonstrators and federal forces.

OBSERVATION - This is part of the puzzle where elements of the NK 2.0 are looking at conducting act of violence. They will try to cover it with claims of govt initiated violence or actions.

***

ANTIFA GENERAL -

Federal prosecutors in Texas have for the first time filed terrorism charges targeting antifa, FBI Director Kash Patel said Thursday, citing President Donald Trump’s recent designation of the far-left anarchist movement as a terrorist organization.

Cameron Arnold of Dallas and Zachary Evetts of Waxahachie, Texas, were charged on Wednesday with providing support to terrorists for their alleged role in the non-fatal shooting of a police officer at an immigration detention facility. Both were arrested in July with eight others and charged with attempted murder and weapons offenses.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/prosecutors-antifa-terrorism-charges/2025/10/16/id/1230734/

OBSERVATION - This will be the first court application of the new terror designation. Will the courts allow this to stick or not.

***
Chicago -

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) said the Illinois State’s Attorney and Attorney General are considering plans to prosecute ICE agents and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) officers over allegations of misconduct.

***

OTHER -

Socialist Rifle Association likes to portray themselves as a left wing gun rights/education organization, but they’re simply not, they’re a violent group connected to attacks including the Alvarado shooting (Benjamin Song was a member)

Also they don’t advocate gun rights, SRA chapters have directly stated their goal is disarming “those who stand in our way”

https://x.com/antifawatch2/status/1978900322920862101?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - SRA has regained some of the spotlight in recent months with leftist shooters being linked to this organization. Goal is to bring training to generally gun adverse leftists as a means to eventually develop an armed cadre for later revolutionary violence.

***
It is now being widely reported that food stamp SNAP benefits will end for many Americans starting Nov 1 if the government shutdown continues. The USDA reportedly does not have continuing authority to disperse funds, and it simply may not have the funds in the first place.

It’s not difficult to predict that if food stamp benefits are halted on November 1, we will have nationwide food riots by November 3, if not sooner.

Nine meals away from anarchy. Never forget that.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Democrats on Thursday blocked a bill that would have funded the Pentagon for a full year, thwarting an effort by Republicans to restart some federal funding as the government shutdown stretched into its 16th day.

The tally was 50-44, falling short of the 60 needed to advance the measure in the 100-member Senate. The vote was largely along party lines, with President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans voting in favor and all but three Democrats objecting.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/shutdown/2025/10/16/id/1230686/

OBSERVATION - Democrats digging themselves in deeper.

***
I’ve been watching the developments in the New York mayoral race and Zohran Mamdani. Odds are that he will be elected in spite of all the racial marxist goals he has espoused. It seems the voters of NY have lost their minds.

The destruction of NYC as a financial center, should Mamdani get elected and have his way, will send shock waves across the country and even the world. Free everything and we’ll just tax the rich to pay for it - until the mobile rich pick up and move, along with their fortune 500 company headquarters. Then the only ones left will be the functionally poor trying to support the massive tax structure and deliberately bloated budget.

This is a clear instance of marxist/islam looking to burn everything down to damage not only the city but the country as a whole.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Reporter: Did Putin try to dissuade you from selling Tomahawk missiles?

President Trump: Well of course. What do you think he’s going to say, “Please sell Tomahawks?” Is he gonna say, “Please sell those Tomahawks, I really appreciate it?” I did actually say, “Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand Tomahawks to your opposition?” I did say that to him — I said it just that way.

Reporter: And what was his response?

President Trump: He didn’t like the idea. He really didn’t like the idea. No, I said it that way — you have to be a little bit lighthearted sometimes. But no he doesn’t want Tomahawks — Tomahawk is a vicious weapon, it’s a vicious, offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants Tomahawks shot at them.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1978937043339338013?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Trump announced that in US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine, the American side will be represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

---

Illegal Immigration –

(FO) The Chief Justice of the Cook County, IL Circuit Court ruled that ICE cannot conduct immigration arrests in county courthouses without a judicial warrant. Chicago officials and activists urged the Illinois legislature to pass a law banning immigration arrests without judicial warrants at all Illinois courts.

OBSERVATION - A continuation of ‘lower’ level legal obstacles being thrown at ICE to thwart otherwise very legal operations. The apparent design of these activist judges is to flood the appellate and USSC with these appeals to generate a quagmire in law enforcement.

***
Chicago, IL activist group Belmont Cragin United is hosting “Whistlemania” training events. At the events, local activists assemble kits that include whistles, Know Your Rights guides, and community resource guides for illegal aliens to alert neighbors when federal immigration operations are nearby.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

On Thursday, following his conversation with Trump, Putin gathered the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in the Kremlin and provided a detailed account of the meeting, - according to Ushakov.

***
Trump: It was a very productive conversation with Putin. We spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the U.S. when the War with Ukraine is over. At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.

President Trump says he will meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest “within two weeks” for talks on ending the war in Ukraine, following what he called a “very productive” 2.5-hour phone call. Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC allows Putin to visit despite his arrest warrant.

OBSERVATION - Trump now focusing on the Ukraine war now that Gaza is handled for at least the short term. After Alaska, I think Trump will be more aggressive this time around and not yield the initiative to putin.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on October 17, Russia launched 70 attack drones, including Shaheds, Gerans, and other types, from multiple directions including Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 35 drones so far, mostly over northern and eastern regions.

Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, setting the facility ablaze. The depot supplie(d) fuel to a large portion of Crimea.

Overnight, Ukraine drones struck the “Vladimirskaya” substation in the Energetik suburb of Vladimir. This 750 kV energy hub is a critical node in Russia’s central power grid, essential for electricity transmission and supply stability across the Vladimir region and beyond.

Russian losses per 17/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+730 men
+5 tanks
+10 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 AD system

***

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Unconfirmed. Russia blew up an ammonia pipeline to poison Ukrainian defenders, then watched its massive relief column get obliterated anyway.

Russian commanders hoped the toxic cloud would clear a path for a massive assault column to reach trapped soldiers near Pokrovsk, deploying six tanks, over 40 armored vehicles, and hundreds of troops.

Instead, Ukrainian drone operators turned the advance into a massacre, destroying over 60 vehicles and killing more than 100 troops in a matter of hours.

By nightfall, the road to Volodymyrivka had become another “road of death” littered with burning wrecks, and the trapped Russian forces remained cut off.

Russians launched a large-scale Russian mechanized assault toward Dobropillia on 16 Oct, using 22 armored vehicles and IFVs. UKR destroyed 9 vehicles and damaged 4 with artillery, FPV drones, minefields, and coordinated counter-attacks.

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight on the northern flank of the Pokrovsk salient is developing into a substantial short term turning point in favor of Ukraine. The extent of Russian losses here may be part of the driving factor of elevated numbers over the course of the past month.

Russia managed a minor breakthrough in the area north of Pokrovsk, threatening encirclement from the north as well as interdiction of key supply routes. As with so many Russian operations, they failed to have sufficient follow up forces to secure the flanks and Ukraine pounced in counter attacks to cut the Russian forces off. OSINT analysts indicate that the Russian forces have been isolated into three pockets. The farthest pocket - Dobropillia - was the objective of the most recent Russia effort. They drove right into a trap and faced the Ukrainian buzz saw.

The Pokrovsk region in general is one of the axis Russia has rumored to be looking at as one of their objective areas for their ‘winter’ offensive. Not sure if current losses are playing into any Russian changes in planning, but clearly Russia will be facing some pretty smart Ukrainian commanders and troops should they try to push this sector.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Sweden will start filing up its silos with food for the first time since the Cold War amid fears of a war with Russia.
After ending its long-standing policy of military non-alignment and joining Nato in 2024, the Scandinavian country is taking some drastic measures to ‘build strength in the new total defence.’

Its government announced plans to invest £45 million (575 million kronor) – as part of the 2026 budget – to set up the grain reserves.

Civil defence minister Carl-Oskar said: ‘We are well aware that the risk of Sweden becoming completely cut off is very low, but the risk of complex supply chains being disrupted with major and unpredictable consequences in the event of war and conflict is unfortunately more likely.’

Bohlin said in a statement that the first emergency grain stocks will be in the north of Sweden, a region that risks being isolated in a conflict.

https://metro.co.uk/2025/10/15/sweden-begin-stockpiling-food-first-time-since-cold-war-24432144/

OBSERVATION - This goes along with other preparations by other countries to try to prepare the population for a war.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF hammers Hezbollah sites in S Lebanon
- Israel and other nations place pressure on Hamas to recover the remains of dead hostages.
- Hamas continues its reign of terror against Gazans.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

President Donald Trump issued his sternest warning yet of Hamas terrorists amid the tentative ceasefire enacted Monday.
“If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them,” Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/hamas-donald-trump-terror/2025/10/16/id/1230669/

***
Jerusalem Post: Israel has blocked the entry of a Turkish delegation that includes rescue teams and heavy machinery from entering the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials said, “Hamxs can immediately return the bodies of the abducted; there’s no reason to allow Turkish crews into Gaza.”
Senior Israeli officials added that Hamxs knows the location of most of the hostages’ remains. In many cases, they said, Hamxs is aware of where the bodies are buried and can reach them, though in some instances heavy equipment would be needed for recovery.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration warning that Qatar can’t be trusted in its role in Gaza, and that they won’t put any money toward Gaza’s reconstruction until Hamas is actually disarmed.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Potential for injection force to stop the indiscriminate killing of Gazans by Hamas is growing. Trump’s use of “we” not really firm - US alone or allowing Israel to launch strikes. Optimal would be Israel working with some of the clans fighting Hamas to use drone strikes on these groups of Hamas. They have made themselves easier to identify by dusting off their uniforms. Israel could justify on the basis that Hamas is violating the agreement to disarm.and that the weapons being used against Gazans can easily be used against them. Lets not forget, Turkey threatened to invade Israel not too long ago.

As noted before, hamas refusal to disarm will likely be the action that takes the whole peace plan down. With no living hostages to hide behind, Israel will be able to be far more aggressive in their push back into Gaza City.

Israel’s push back to Turkish assets going into Gaza is a clear display of who’s in charge. Turkish elements would only mess up the situation, should things go hot again. This is Israeli controlled territory and they are calling the shots. Israel further points out that at least half of the remaining bodies are easily accessible to Hamas.

---

Lebanon -

The Israeli army says it carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah sites near the southern Lebanon village of Mazraat Sinay, which were being used by the terror group to restore its capabilities. Among the targets was a quarry where Hezbollah produced concrete to rebuild its facilities that were destroyed during the fighting last year, according to the IDF.

OBSERVATION - Once again, this activity is what the Lebanese govt is suppose to be preventing, but isn’t.

---

Syria -

The Syrian government and the main Kurdish-led force in the country’s northeast have agreed in principle on a plan to merge the U.S.-backed force as a cohesive group into the national army, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told @Hogir_Abdo for the @AP

Thousands of SDF members join new army under deal

OBSERVATION - Very touchy move. With Turkish backing the govt, they could use this as an excuse to force Syria to try to disarm the SDF, making it easier for it to attack Kurdish elements in Northern Syria. It also doesn’t reduce pressure by the AQ related supporters of the Syrian govt who are separate from the military.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The U.S. military carried out a new strike in Caribbean against suspected drug vessel, there are survivors. - Reuters

---

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Energy Wright, and Secretary of Transportation Duffy-

President Trump has made it clear that the United States will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the United States or harms the interests of the American people. Next week, members of the IMO will vote on the adoption of a so-called NZF aimed at reducing global carbon dioxide gas emissions from the international shipping sector. This will be the first time that a UN organization levies a global carbon tax on the world.

The Administration unequivocally rejects this proposal before the IMO and will not tolerate any action that increases costs for our citizens, energy providers, shipping companies and their customers, or tourists. The economic impacts from this measure could be disastrous, with some estimates forecasting global shipping costs increasing as much as 10% or more. We ask you to join us in rejecting adoption of the NZF at the October meeting and to work together on our collective economic and energy security.

The NZF proposal poses significant risks to the global economy and subjects not just Americans, but all IMO member states to an unsanctioned global tax regime that levies punitive and regressive financial penalties, which could be avoided. The United States is considering the following actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers:

- Pursuing investigations and considering potential regulations to combat anti-competitive practices from certain flagged countries and potential blocking vessels registered in those countries from U.S. ports;
- Imposing visa restrictions including an increase in fees and processing, mandatory re-interview requirements and/or revisions of quotas for C-1/D maritime crew member visas;
- Imposing commercial penalties stemming from U.S. government contracts including new commercial ships, liquified natural gas terminals and infrastructure, and/or other financial penalties on ships flagged under nations in favor of the NZF;
- Imposing additional port fees on ships owned, operated, or flagged by countries supporting the framework; and
- Evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies that would burden American consumers, among other measures under consideration.

The United States will be moving to levy these remedies against nations that sponsor this European-led neocolonial export of global climate regulations. We will fight hard to protect our economic interests by imposing costs on countries if they support the NZF. Our fellow IMO members should be on notice.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/15/taking-action-to-defend-america-from-the-uns-first-global-carbon-tax-the-international-maritime-organizations-imo-net-zero-framework-nzf/

OBSERVATION - This carbon tax by the UN has been in the works for a while and the US told them to pound sand.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) urged furloughed federal workers to join the 18 October No Kings 2.0 demonstrations. AFGE said the protest movement has taken on more urgency with the Trump administration’s “authoritarian powergrab” during the federal government shutdown.

***
(FO) Anarchist collective Crimethinc published a call to action for anarchist affinity groups to organize anti-authoritarian blocs for the No Kings 2.0 demonstrations on 18 October. The anti-authoritarian blocs would hold post demonstration events to recruit demonstrators and teach direct action planning.

FO OBSERVATIONS (I concur)
The far left has been unable to spur mass mobilization since the 2020 election. Far left organizers likely see No Kings 2.0 as a potential catalyst for public mass mobilization and a recruiting nexus for direct actions.

***
CHICAGO -

An 8-foot security fence surrounding the Broadview, Illinois Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing facility has been removed at the order of a U.S. District Court judge.

Judge Lashonda Hunt ordered the removal of the security fence last Friday, claiming that the temporary fence was on municipal land without permission and allegedly violated local ordinances by blocking emergency vehicles.

Hunt had ruled that the fence violated safety code because the gate was 16 feet wide, rather than the 20-foot requirement adopted by the village under the International Fire Code.

The judge’s order stated: “DHS’s Beach Street gate creates a quasi-federal zone where the Village’s ability to respond to emergencies is hindered and only allows it to provide lifesaving services at the whims and fancies of the Federal Defendants.”

The timing of the removal of the fence has raised concerns that there will be one less barrier between ICE agents and protesters during this coming weekend’s large-scale “no kings day” protests scheduled across the nation.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/federal-judge-orders-ice-to-take-down-security-fence-at-broadview-illinois-facility/

RELATED -
Chicago that the south side of the ICE Broadview facility has been declared a “no protest zone” - after the FENCE was forced to be taken down by a judge.

“The demonstrators are now restricted to a small zone on the northeast side, and the protestors don’t like it!”

Activist group the Coalition Against Broadview ICE Facility said it will not obey the new order, and will continue demonstrating in previous protest zones.

OBSERVATION - Being appealed, but it is being forced down for now, leaving the facility dangerously exposed. This is a new tactic the left is using via lawfare to limit ICE - enforcement of local laws and regulations.

The city of Broadview has put in new limits on where free speech areas are allowed, no longer permitting protests where the fencing has been removed. However, since when have Antifa elements bothered to follow the law.
Should Antifa renew an attack on this side of the facility, I expect that the govt will reinstall the fence, demonstrating that the local police are incapable of backing up the judge’s order or maintain security. It could also trigger deployment of the TX NG contrary to another judge’s order to secure the facility, citing real security concerns that override the judgement.

***
(FO) Chicago, IL area anarchists vandalized three U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks in an “attack back,” retaliation for federal agents using those brands’ rental trucks during a major 2 October raid on a Chicago apartment complex. The anarchists urged activists and affinity groups to scout out U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks to vandalize.

***
BOSTON -
(FO) Boston, MA prosecutors charged 13 demonstrators with “promotion of anarchy,” after a 7 October pro-Palestine rally that turned violent. Officials said the “promotion of anarchy” charges were brought after police found social media advertisements for the event that included violent imagery.

***
NATIONAL -
Mother Jones recently published an article that stated that “soft secession” could lay the groundwork for “a new confederacy”…
“With Trump provocatively sending troops into blue cities, and using recision and the shutdown to claw back congressionally appropriated funds from blue states, it’s time to turn the tables on him. Soft secession, powered by the presidential ambitions of multiple blue-state governors, could, should it come to that, be the proving ground of a new confederacy. Hopefully the threat of CalExit or a new Union will be enough. But that extreme measures might be necessary to ensure that American democracy shall not perish from the Earth is becoming more self-evident with every passing day.”

https://endoftheamericandream.com/talk-of-secession-by-blue-states-rises-as-incidents-of-violent-civil-conflict-become-more-common-in-major-u-s-cities/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Leftists say what they intend to do and those of us on the right seem immune to accept those threats as being real. Talk of a national divorce grew out of the 0bama days as red areas came under increasing oppression from blue sectors of the country. This was revealed in the now classical blue/urban versus red/rural standoff. Those dynamics have shifted to some degree with some red gains, however, the sentiment has changed little, nor have some of the potential dynamics.

Kalifornia, for example, is ruled by the leftists concentrated in the states large cities - SF Bay, Sacramento, LA, etc. Leave the city limits, the color quickly flips to red. On a land basis, nearly 3/4 of Kalifornia is red. Should the left in Kaliforina attempt to separate, there will likely be an internal schism as well, as the red counties will refuse to follow that leadership. There was an effort by those red areas to separate into a new state, not sure what the status of that movement currently is. But I’m confident that should kalifornia try to leave the union, it will have trouble within its borders. Should the S hit the fan big time, the blue urban areas will struggle keeping supplied as it would be easy for the red areas to enforce a blockade.

Now multiple this scenario across other “blue” states and things would get ugly fast.

Toss in the ascendant moslem movement/concentration for spice. . . . .

Are things actually moving in this direction? Recent events indicated that this movement has started in Kalifornia and Illinois in particular. Smaller levels in Chicago and Seattle.

***
Should the democrats regain power at the national level, one can expect the full militarization of the police/federal govt to lock up those who voted for Trump and followed his directives -

“The Illinois Governor is now threatening to throw ICE and other federal agents in PRISON.”

The massive Stasi actions under biden will pale under the hand of a democrat president and congress - you can bet your ammo box on it.

***
A new poll shows that the majority of voters in America support President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities across the United States.
A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 7 to October 9 shows that 52 percent of likely U.S. voters support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend ICE facilities, which have faced repeated attacks by left-wing protesters over the past several months. The 52 percent of voters who support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard includes 39 percent of likely U.S. voters who strongly support the deployment of National Guard troops to defend ICE facilities.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/10/majority-of-americans-support-deploying-natl-guard-to-defend-ice-facilities-poll-shows/#google_vignette

***
There is growing talk from both sides about Trump looking to implement the Insurrection Act to circumvent the current round of activist judges barring activation of NG for protection of govt facilities, namely ICE and DHS in hot bed cities.

IMHO, such action by Trump would be waaaaaay to early and without substantial justification at this stage. It is better to slog thru the appeals to these judges and (re)establish his authority as CinC than to make a major jump. What would trigger that jump? Again IMHO would be mass violence on the level seen in the 2020 Floyd /BLM riots. Anything less could easily be spun as a mad power grab the “See I told you so” elements of the left.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is looking to back Democrats into a corner by bringing a full-year Pentagon funding bill to the Senate floor on Thursday.

In doing so, Thune aims to force Democrats to take action — and perhaps move toward an end to Washington’s weeks of paralysis — as a government shutdown stretches into its third week with no end in sight.

Thune’s move marks a deliberate escalation by Senate Republicans, who hope to break the stalemate by daring Democrats to vote against military funding.

The Senate democrats have now rejected the House-passed stopgap nine times, including once on Wednesday, with another vote expected Thursday.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/shutdown-thune-democrats/2025/10/15/id/1230545/

OBSERVATION - Polls showing that public opinion is continuing to shift against the democrats on the shut down. This is a brilliant move, preserve national defense and strip a debate point from the dems at the same time.

***
Panic is worsening among Democrats after it sinks in just how many Republican House seats will be picked up through redistricting by 2026

“Democrats could lose 19 SEATS! This is a HUGE amount!”

“Florida could be a gold mine! [...] EVERYTHING left over is an advantage to the Republicans!”

“The Supreme Court is CONSIDERING the end of the Voting Rights Act!”

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1978137851637182750

OBSERVATION - Democrats have over the years over jerry rigged the congressional districts to gain their advantage. This season’s redistricting has come with republicans in power in many of these states and courts not interfering as they have in the past. Big ticket item is the growing likelihood that the USSC will eliminate special districts based solely on race. Look to discussions from yesterday’s hearing. The shockwaves will be huge and nothing Kalifornia can do will stop the surge.

MORE RELATED -

Political analysts are saying that if the USSC overturns the sections of the Voting Rights Act,, it could lead to the redrawing of congressional districts across the south that, by some estimates, could flip more than a dozen seats from Democratic to Republican.

Do the math - redistricting alone a +19, add +12 from the USSC decision to a huge +31 pickup for the republicans.

***
In another question, the Rasmussen Reports poll asked U.S. voters, “Do you agree or disagree with this statement: ‘We have seen, over the last nine months, an ongoing legal insurrection in which district court judges … have issued rulings that are flagrantly unlawful and unconstitutional’?” In response, 56 percent of likely U.S. voters agreed with the statement, while 31 percent of likely U.S. voters disagreed with the statement.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/10/majority-of-americans-support-deploying-natl-guard-to-defend-ice-facilities-poll-shows/

OBSERVATION - More public opinion running against the MSM/democrat narrative.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The US has issued an ultimatum to Putin: “It’s time to end the war and come to the peace table — or the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do,” said US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1978488628339974332

OBSERVATION - More likely along the lines of providing military systems like the Tomahawk and intel to enhance Ukraine deep strikes against strategic targets. The only other action I can see is actual intercept and seizure of Russian ‘black fleet’ ships under sanctions.

Economic Impact –

Some Indian refiners to move away from Russian oil, sources say.

OBSERVATION - Some related rumblings suggest that Trump tariffs are squeezing Indian oil refiners and forcing them to seek other sources. If they stop buying Russian oil, the Russian economy will take another serous hit.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the overnight drone/missile attack.

Shot down:
283/320 Shahed type drones
0/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
0/26 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
0/2 Iskander-K cruise missiles
5/7 Kh-59 cruise missiles

This includes 18 missiles that were lost by location

Russia launched drone and missile strikes hit the DTEK Naftogaz energy infrastructure. As a result, gas production facilities in Poltava region were forced to halt operations, the company reported.

Ukraine drones attacked an oil refinery in Kstovo of Nizhniy Novgorod region.
Ukraine also struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in the Saratov
Region. Saratov Oil Refinery is one of Russia’s oldest, processing 4.8 million tons of crude annually as of 2023 and supplying the Russian military.

In Volgograd region, the 500 kV “Balashovskaya” substation near Uryupinsk was hit overnight by Ukrainian drones according to Russian sources. The substation plays a key role in transferring electricity from the Volzhskaya hydroelectric plant to central Russia. Local officials confirmed the strike and resulting fire.

Russian losses per 16/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1080 men
+2 tanks
+9 AFVs
+42 artillery

Russian sources confirm the de-facto loss of Oleksiivka, Sumy region. Ukrainian forces are already in the center and control the southern part. Attempts to bring in Russian reserves are failing, with most units taking heavy losses before reaching the front. Russian channels admit Oleksiivka will have to be abandoned.
NOTE - This is one of the Russian penetrations from the past summer that failed to have follow on forces available to secure the flanks.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Russia ramping up for another large drone/missile strike within the next couple days. Ukraine power and oil/gas will be largely targeted as like last year.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hammer Russian petro industry and power. It seems Russia is unable to provide protection for these refineries and other related sites, like oil pumping stations. Successive hits are making these big producers go off line for at least months if not longer as the parts necessary to replace are scarce and costly.

On the ground, moderately heavy fighting is indicated. Ukraine apparently is continuing to have success pinching off Russian penetrations from the summer, and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, both in manpower and equipment.

Recent reports of increased company and battalion sized “armor” attacks could be considered to be probing / recon in force efforts ahead of the anticipated Russian winter offensive. So far it appears that each was decimated with heavy losses.

The “winter offensive” seems to be stalling out in execution, unless waiting for the ground to freeze following the upcoming mud season. The increased conscription call up may also be delaying it, as the Russian forces need more bodies to fill out their units. It may also be stalling out due to logistical impacts, currently potential fuel shortages, and interdiction of key rail roads. With the touted Russian Summer/Fall offensive turning out to largely be a nothing burger, the stakes are higher to successfully initiate a winter campaign. Russia has lost a lot of the initiative it was able to generate with the many limited penetrations of Ukraine lines. Now that has switched as Ukraine is eliminating these penetrations, and Russia is losing forces trying to retain them. The infiltration tactics Russia used for these limited breakthroughs are being countered by Ukraine defenses, making it harder to successfully conduct more such attacks.

---

Poland –

A new drone incident disrupted NATO’s Falcon Autumn drills in Poland, Rzeczpospolita reports. Belarusian-plated cars were spotted near a Dutch camp site, followed by unidentified drones that jammed communications. The exercise was restructured, and Dutch EW systems were flown in. Commanders called it a “valuable lesson” in operating under electronic threat.

---

Europe / NATO General –

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for stronger European military power, stating “only strength preserves peace.” He announced a national plan to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare and reaffirmed full support for Ukraine. Merz proposed using frozen Russian assets to give Ukraine €140B in interest-free military loans.

***
Poland’s Foreign Minister warned European leaders in London yesterday that Europe needs to be preparing for Russia to conduct strikes deep into Europe. NATO Secretary-General Rutte said that NATO and the EU are working together to set up a “drone wall.” German Defense Minister Pistorius announced an $11 billion investment into European drone defense to take the lead on the project.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

The Pakistani Air Force struck Kabul and Kandahar , Afghanistan overnight.

The Pakistani government and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban on Wednesday agreed to a temporary 48-hour ceasefire after fresh clashes erupted this week and saw more than a dozen civilians and troops killed.

OBSERVATION - The Taliban have no effective air force or air defenses. Pakistan can penetrate Afghan air space at their pleasure. On the ground, Taliban may have some edge if they can effectively coordinate their actions with coreligionists in Pakistan. At present , I don’t see either country seeking territorial gains, and a war of attrition is being set up.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Two more bodies of dead hostages turned over to Israel.

- More pressure on Hamas to adhere to the full agreement.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Today marks one year since the death of the monster Sinwar. He was the leader of Hamas and mastermind of the Oct 7 massacres.

***
Israeli Defense Minister ordered the IDF to prepare a plan to defeat Hamas in Gaza if fighting resumes. If Hamas rejects the Trump plan (return hostages, disarm, etc.), Israel, with US coordination, will resume operations to destroy tunnels and terror infrastructure.

Trump to CNN: I will consider allowing Netanyahu to return to fight in Gaza if Hamas refuses to fulfill its part of the deal - “As soon as I say the word”

***
Israeli Radio, citing an official, said: Israel does not intend to begin the second phase of the agreement before the bodies of all the kidnapped soldiers are returned.

Hamas says 19 hostage bodies are unaccounted for - and will remain so, in the absence of large-scale and foreign-assisted forensic excavation

***
Based on multiple Gaza-based accounts, once the crossings open, we may see as many as 500,000 Gazans flood out of the Strip.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli army updates: The Houthis in Yemen stopped launching drones and ballistic missiles at Israel with the start of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

The Houthi Chief of Staff targeted by the IDF has been confirmed eliminated. The Houthis only acknowledged it now — the strike occurred on August 28.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Delays in repatriating remains of hostages and refusal of Hamas to disarm and step down continue to lead the general situation. There are legitimate difficulties getting to some of the buried bodies, but Hamas had over a week to get it accomplished in preparation for the ceasefire.

Israeli / US actions against Hamas’ refusal to disarm and step aside from rulership of Gaza are likely weeks away. IIRC, the policing action falls on Egypt, Turkey and Qatar first to get this accomplished. However, only a fool will accept that Hamas will do this willingly.

Hamas is also continuing its campaign of terror by executing Gazas suspected of being favorable to Israel as well as fighting local clans for control.

If the rumors are correct, there will be a new refugee crisis should Egypt forcefully prevent these 500,000 Gazans from fleeing the war torn area. Historically, these so called ‘palestinians’ have been like locust to surrounding arab countries, causing trouble in Egypt, then Jordan and Lebanon.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Trump: “I received important intelligence indicating that Iran is once again restoring its nuclear capabilities - the US and Israel are closely monitoring these actions. If Iran continues on the path to building an atomic bomb, we will attack Iran again. Iran told us that it is acting to produce civilian, not military, nuclear material but our eyes are still on them.”

OBSERVATION - Rhetoric before action. Key is that Iran has to rebuild its uranium concentration operations to the extent necessary to get to the 60% and then fission grade 90% levels again. The stockpile of 60% enriched uranium seems to be securely buried under the rubble of the site taken out by US bunker busters. Chances are the containers have been broken and uranium is scattered about the underground facility - creating a serious radiation hazard should Iran attempt to recover what’s left.

---

Lebanon -

Lebanese Parliament Speaker: Lebanon adheres to Resolution 1701, and Israel must be compelled to implement the ceasefire, halt its daily attacks, and withdraw from the territories in the south.

OBSERVATION - Absent the proclamation is the fact that Lebanon has not disarmed Hezbollah as per the same agreement. Lebanon’s failure has given Israel the rights under 1701 to strike Hezbollah.

---

Syria -

Sky News Arabia correspondent: An agreement will be reached regarding the renewal of Russia’s control over its air and naval bases in Syria. Contracts will be signed with Russia to arm the Syrian army, especially in the field of air defense. Russian companies will contribute to the reconstruction of infrastructure in Syria. Russia will support the Syrian government in expanding its influence in the country.

OBSERVATION - Russia’s desperation to maintain those bases gave the new regime in Damascus the leverage to extract a lot of investment from Russia. One thing is for sure, the attempts to rearm Syria with air defense assets will result in routine Israeli airstrikes to turn those shiny toys into burned out hulks.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Several (3) U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers flew over the southern Caribbean Sea yesterday, approximately 300-500 km north of Venezuela’s coast. Venezuelan F-16s were reportedly scrambled in response.

***
The Trump Administration has secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert actions, including lethal operations, in the Southern Caribbean and Venezuela, as part of the latest step in the administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against drug trafficking cartels in the region and the Venezuelan Government under Nicolás Maduro, according to senior officials who spoke with the New York Times.

***
Venezuela launched three Integral Defense Operational Zones (ZODI) in Nueva Esparta, Sucre, and Delta Amacuro in response to the U.S. military’s presence yesterday. On Monday, Venezuelan President Maduro said that he would continue activating ZODIs through each state. The ZODIs are regional tasking zones for the Venezuelan military which include protecting oil and petrochemical plants, gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, and service stations “based on the possibility of U.S. military aggression.”

---

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
Congress collected 30 million lines of phone data in Trump J6 probe, raising civil liberty concerns

Congressional investigators collected a stunning 30 million lines of phone data mapping contacts between conservatives and the Trump White House in the name of investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol breach, a massive dragnet that raises civil liberty concerns about the lack of limits on the ability of lawmakers to snoop on Americans’ private phone calls.

The mountainous collection of phone records were revealed to the FBI led by Chris Wray in late 2023 by former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a GOP member on the Democrat-run House Jan. 6 select committee. The cache was offered to the bureau on the eve of the 2024 presidential election as evidence without requiring a warrant, according to an FBI document memorializing the offer that was reviewed by Just the News.

The memo says Kinzinger told the FBI that the phone data had been collected by then-former Rep. Denver Riggleman, an ex-Republican who was a staffer on the Capitol riot committee and who later helped Hunter Biden’s legal team in its efforts to cast doubt on the laptop belonging to Joe Biden’s son.

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/congress-collected-30-million-lines-phone-data-trump-j6-probe-raising-civil

OBSERVATION - Best said here-

“Congress secretly collected 30 million lines of phone data to map who might be a MAGA supporter for contacting the Trump White House and then tried to back door it to the FBI? Perhaps time for a refresher course on the 4th Amendment”

https://x.com/jsolomonreports/status/1978312723202035875?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

This is Stazi on steriods! Laying the groundwork for a massive assault on freedom loving Americans when the left can fully drop the hammer.

***
PORTLAND -

Portland Antifa tactics revealed: In order to hide riot supplies and potentially weapons from
@PortlandPolice
during sweeps of their illegal encampment outside
@ICEgov
, Antifa have rented a nearby storage space to stash their supplies.

@Tommy4Trump420
caught them transporting supplies to their secret base inside the South Waterfront Heated Storage business. This is in addition to their Antifa safehouse at 677 South Lowell St., Unit #152.

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1977935396517326903

OBSERVATION - Not surprising.

***
Big PR push with MSM and social media full court presses to try to convince the public that Antifa doesn’t exist as an entity but only as some amorphous concept.

***

CHICAGO -

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has vowed to prosecute Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in a post-Trump era.

Pritzker made the comments during an interview with FOX 32 Chicago this week as ICE agents step up their efforts across the city of Chicago.

“The tables will turn one day,” Prtizker explained.

”These people should recognize that maybe they’re not gonna get prosecuted today, although we’re looking at doing that, but they may get prosecuted after the Trump administration because the statute of limitations would not have run out.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/illinois-gov-j-b-pritzker-vows-imprison-ice/

OBSERVATION - States looking to essentially conduct war against US law enforcement enforcing the law.

***
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Monday that more than 1,500 illegal immigrants, including pedophiles, violent gang members, and armed robbers, have been arrested across Illinois under Operation Midway Blitz.
“Operation Midway Blitz is making Illinois SAFE again,” DHS said in an October 14 post on X.
“DHS law enforcement has made over 1,500 arrests across Illinois, including of pedophiles, vicious gang members, and armed robbers.
“@POTUS Trump and @Sec Noem WILL NOT allow criminal illegal aliens to terrorize our cities.”
https://slaynews.com/news/1500-illegal-aliens-arrested-massive-dhs-bust-illinois/

***
ELSEWHERE

Los Angeles County has declared a state of emergency over ICE immigration raids - ABC

Los Angeles County supervisors, in a 4-1 vote, branded federal immigration enforcement a local crisis to fast-track aid for those swept up in it.

The declaration unlocks emergency rental assistance for tenants facing eviction after ICE detentions.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

House democrats stormed the Speaker’s office with a bunch of demands only to find out he was at the Medal of Freedom ceremony for Charlie Kirk.

***
Democrats are trying to rally behind a ridicules claim that biden should receive the credit for the recent peace agreement over Gaza. Delusional.

---

TRUMP Watch –

As of today, Trump’s average job approval rating is a pretty healthy 45.3 percent. On this same day, during his second term (October 13, 2013), Barry Obama’s average approval rating sat at 44.4 percent. At this same point (October 13, 2005), George W. Bush’s approval rating was in a dive he would never recover from — 39.5 percent.

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2025/10/13/nolte-media-fail-trumps-second-term-job-approval-tops-obama/

***
Knowing the outline of the deal as first presented, I&I/TIPP asked voters: “Do you support or oppose the Trump peace plan for Gaza, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, hostage exchanges, and rebuilding Gaza under international supervision?”
The response was powerful: 59% said they would either support the deal “strongly” (30%) or “somewhat” (29%), while just 18% opposed the deal either “strongly” (9%) or “somewhat”. A large 23% of Americans said they were not sure.
The national online poll was taken from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, with 1.459 adults taking part. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

https://hotair.com/headlines/2025/10/14/trumps-israel-hamas-peace-plan-gets-a-big-thumbs-up-from-us-voters-n3807808

---

Illegal Immigration –

The Trump administration has revoked the visas of six foreign nationals who made social media posts critical of Charlie Kirk following his assassination.

The Department of Transportation has closed a loop hole that states used to issue CDLs to illegals.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 113 drones, mostly Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses downed or suppressed 86 of them across the north, south, and east. Strikes were recorded at 11 locations.

Ukrainian drones struck the oil depot in occupied Feodosia again, damaging 16 more fuel tanks that survived the previous hit. A large fire is ongoing, the General Staff reports.

Diesel fuel is unavailable at stations in Zuya, Alushta, and Perevalne, as well as ATAN and TES in Simferopol, occupied Crimea. The shortages are likely linked to the Feodosia oil depot strike, where tanks filled with diesel were destroyed.

Over 20 Shahed-type drones hit a power station in Kamianske of Dnipropetrovsk region. No electrical power and water supply in the city

***

Russian losses per 15/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1070 men
+3 tanks
+2 AFVs
+43 artillery
+2 AD systems

In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces have advanced into Oleksiivka, pushing back Russian forces who recently tried to reinforce the area.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Oleksiivka of Dnipropetrovsk region and Novopavlivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukrainian forces repelled a large-scale Russian assault near Pokrovsk. Russian troops attempted to breach Ukrainian engineering barriers but were caught in a deadly crossfire and suffered heavy losses.

***
ISW. Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine.

Russian forces have largely favored leveraging small groups of infantry to conduct infiltration missions and make slow advances throughout the front line over conducting mechanized assaults during the first nine months of 2025.

Russian forces are still leveraging infantry to advance but have conducted several comparatively larger mechanized assaults in their priority Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas of Donetsk Oblast in recent weeks.

Russian forces appear to be conducting larger mechanized assaults during rainy and foggy weather conditions, which complicate Ukrainian drone operations.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1978252417633333709?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of families from 40 villages near the devastated city of Kupiansk amid intensified Russian attacks. The area has faced months of bombardment. - Reuters

Analysis and Future Operations —

Key commentary on Russian tactics. Increasing the use of armor/tanks to try to break the general stalemate on the front, and getting chewed up in the process.

Russian attacks under foul weather conditions are one solution to negating much of Ukraine’s superiority of FPV drone defenses. Ukraine will have to rely on more expensive thermal optics equipped drones to counter these attacks. This causes me to wonder why Russia hasn’t been using smoke and airburst WP to provide cover for its attacking forces. IDK.

I expect another major Russian drone/missile attack soon.

Ukraine continues to double and triple tap Russian petroleum targets. Not only creating shortages in the near term, but extensive damage to keep them off line for the longer term. As noted many times before, fuel stations are out of gas/diesel in occupied areas and facing skyrocketing prices and shortages as far east as the Moscow region. The related hits to the Russian economy which depends heavily on oil and gas are big and growing.

---

Europe / NATO General –

NATO SecGen Mark Rutte warned: “Let me address the Russians directly, if they deliberately try anything against NATO, we have the means and authority to defend every inch of NATO airspace and territory.”

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

New clashes erupted early on Wednesday between Pakistani and Afghan forces at the joint border, with both sides accusing the other of having begun the hostilities.
https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-fresh-clashes-on-afghan-border-leave-several-dead/a-74364795?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas turned over 4 more bodies to Israel, only three were hostages, the 4th unknown

- PIJ and other affiliated jihadists rejecting the peace plan, saying they are exempt from it.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he had communicated to Hamas that the militant group must disarm or it will be forced to.

“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” Trump said during a meeting at the White House with Argentine President Javier Milei.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-hamas-disarm/2025/10/14/id/1230307/

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israel Air Force conducted an airstrike against the movement of several suspects towards the IDF troops in the Shejaia area of the Gaza Strip on Wednesday morning.
According to military sources, the suspects approached an area where Palestinian movement is prohibited and posed an immediate threat to the forces.
According to a military source, two Palestinians were wounded in the attack.
Drones later dropped non-lethal weapons against Palestinians who approached the forces, and three smoke plumes rose in the sky over Shejaia.
“Palestinians are approaching. They continue to challenge (the established lines),” said a military source.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2025-10-15/live-updates-870442#google_vignette

***
Hamas openly admits it has no intention of disarming or giving up power in Gaza—two core requirements of the ceasefire deal it accepted just days ago.

In an interview last night, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem declared the group will reject all Israeli demands related to weapons, saying:

“We will not be prisoners to Israeli terminology or demands. This will be a key focus in the next phase of our struggle.”

Qassem also signaled that Hamas plans to reinterpret the signed agreement on Gaza’s governance—pushing for a governing body that aligns with its agenda and preserves its influence.

https://x.com/israelwarroom/status/1978020976487985620?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Palestinian Authority president’s office condemns “executions carried out by Hamas in recent days against dozens of civilians in Gaza without fair trials,” calling them “heinous and unacceptable crimes under any excuse.” - Statement

***
Deputy Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement:
“The resistance factions did not agree to disarmament and we do not accept threats to forcibly disarm.”

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkey is sending 81 search and rescue personnel to Gaza along with necessary equipment and vehicles to locate bodies. The word in Ankara was that they would unearth dead Israeli hostages

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

I said earlier, repatriation of the dead Israelis will take longer. However, it looks as if Hamas is dragging its feet. Injection of Turkish elements may speed things up. Until then Israel has full justification to refuse further pullout.

Hamas refusal to disarm and exit Gaza governance, though they signed the document agreeing to it, will eventually bring about another crisis. However, this crisis will also severely impact the arab nations that guaranteed that Hamas would hold to the deal. What will they do? Over their head, Trump hangs warning that their failures will affect them financially.

Related to this are the smaller, terror groups like PIJ, who essentially claim they are exempt from the agreement. Perhaps technically they are correct, but then that gives Israel carte blanc to hammer them when the time comes. It will take a lot of work to demilitarize the Gaza Strip of not only Hamas, but other factions like PIJ.

As recent airstrikes expose, Hamas et al is trying to attack Israeli forces to provoke an incident that they can use to turn the public against it again.

---

Syria -

Russian Foreign Ministry: Moscow and Damascus discuss Russia’s presence in Syria and restructuring its military facilities.

OBSERVATION - Russia is desperate to maintain its bases in Syria. Syria OTOH appears to be willing to allow retention, as long as their ‘purpose’ is changed into more of a humanitarian stop over point for relief headed to Africa.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

President Trump has announced another military strike against a boat off Venezuela suspected of trafficking drugs on Tuesday, which killed all six people on board.

Trump stated that the vessel was “affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization” but did not name any organization or issue specific evidence to back this, only releasing unclassified video of the strike.

This marks the fifth known strike on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea in recent months, with the prior four instances having killed 21 people total. A prior strike had been disclosed by the Pentagon in early October.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/six-killed-after-us-strikes-boat-venezuela-5th-such-operation

OBSERVATION - There have been growing reports that smuggler sea routes are being adjusted in an effort to avoid detection and destruction.

---

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

The world’s top central bankers and finance ministers have descended to Washington DC for the semi-annual World Bank meetings.
Among the issues to be discussed are global trade in the era of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and economic growth.

***

Ignorance of basic human biology and the woke propagandising of food ‘science’ to control global human behaviour lies behind the recently-published second version of the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD). Produced by dozens of credentialled cretins around the world, it restricts meat and dairy consumption to levels not seen since the Second World War. Pasty-faced and possibly protein-starved researchers suggest around 15 grams of red meat a day and promote a mainly plant-based diet. A suggestion to cut agricultural emissions by 50% within 25 years means using much less hydrocarbon-produced fertiliser, and that would lead to mass global starvation. But then this potty planetary piss-take could only have been suggested by people who believe that, whatever societal devastation they cause, the soy latte will magically appear as they make their way to Whole Foods to pick up their organic humous.

The few people still watching CNN were treated to the suggestion that the diet could feed 9.6 billion people “equitably” by 2050, save $5 trillion yearly and prevent 15 million deaths. All this, of course, came from a ‘business-as-usual’ computer model which used a scenario similar to the widely discredited RCP8.5. More than a daily allowance of salt needs to be taken with this made-up agitprop. Second World War total calories of 2,500 are suggested, with land-hungry whole grains, vegetables, legumes, nuts and unprocessed oils providing the vast proportion of the diet. Competing with all those wind turbines, solar farms and rewilding schemes, hard-pressed farmers, facing increasing ‘carbon’ taxes on artificial fertilisers, will still be expected to provide City-based wokies with their virtue-filled home deliveries. Haloes can be polished while they luxuriate in the glow caused by knowing that their sainted scoff has been produced by “inclusive governance that centres indigenous knowledge and community voices”. Who knows what that guff actually means in practice, although it is good to know that it is a “transformative action”.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/14/one-daily-beef-chipolata-and-a-small-nibble-of-cheese-eco-nutters-reveal-new-planetary-health-diet/

OBSERVATION - Once again, the way to control a population is via food. The road to poor nutrition will equally lead to poorer health and increase the number of associated deaths as a result. Of course, population reduction is a fundamental principal of globalists, though in articles like this they don’t really want to come out and say it. BTW, the ‘elites’ will still get their heaping portions of beef and other food, while the peasants starve.

***
Newsom signed AB 495 into law on Sunday night and pretended that the law, proffered by a Democrat to hide kids illegally in the country from Immigration authorities, kept parental rights intact and preserved parents’ relationships with their own children. Instead, it made every child in California schools, preschools, and state-licensed childcare facilities a target.
Newsom had the hubris and temerity to tout it as “a bill to protect parents’ rights and children.”

That is false. Indeed, it’s worse than false. It’s a license allowing anyone to take your child without your permission and act as that child’s unapproved “guardian.” As the California Family Council (CFA) put it, “Anyone falsely claiming kinship can easily sign the affidavit, access a child, obtain medical care, and enroll them in another school. Even the most basic safeguard of a notary is not required to confirm the true identity of the person accessing your child. AB 495 violates fundamentally constitutionally protected parental rights, endangers California’s children, and will be appropriately legally challenged and struck down.”

https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2025/10/13/ab-495-n4944800

OBSERVATION - The globalists want absolute control over all aspects of your children, in order to indoctrinate them to their plans and desires. The willing globalist syncopates in Kalifornia are assisting in that movement here in the US. Expect aggressive lawsuits to overturn this law.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
Family members of law enforcement officers are facing threats from individuals affiliated with the far-left extremist group Antifa, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in an Oct. 10 X post.

“Antifa terrorists are threatening the families of our law enforcement,“ DHS stated in the post. ”We will hunt these sickos down and put them behind bars. In Texas, the spouse of an [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] ICE officer received a voicemail filled with violent threats.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/antifa-is-threatening-families-of-law-enforcement-homeland-security-5927976?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

***
Far-left extremists were reportedly infuriated to see patriotic counter-protesters arrive outside the ICE facility in Portland. The numbers of these counter protestors have grown in recent days, challenging Antifa et al’s claim to being ‘peaceful’. Such a pushback is not unprecedented, the Berkeley riots of 2017 saw the rise of conservatives and “Base Stick Man” groups which forcefully met Antifa protestors and eventually drove the leftist agitators off the campus and forced the city to get Antifa and allies to stand down.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats still trying to beat the drums of no military pay, find that rug pulled out and now are threatening to sue the administration for funding shifts to keep them payed as well as other critical funding.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Today, President Trump will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Charlie Kirk to Erika Kirk who receive this award on her husband’s behalf.

On Monday, in separate announcements, the presidents of Egypt and Israel each awarded U.S. President Donald Trump one of their respective country’s highest honors for his work brokering a peace agreement designed to end the war in Gaza.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Personnel Issues –

ISW. Russia may begin to mobilize members of Russia’s active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine, but it is unlikely to conduct a large-scale involuntary reserve mobilization to expand the size of the Russian military dramatically at this time.

The creation of a mechanism for small, rolling mobilizations would be a major inflection in Russia’s force generation strategy, which so far has sought to generate recruits through growing financial incentives and sign-up bonuses to avoid mass compulsory mobilization after the challenging involuntary reserve call up of late 2022.

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity passed a new draft amendment that effectively removes the current legal barriers against deploying reservists to combat in the absence of an officially declared mobilization or war.

OBSERVATION - This is a potential crack in the dam that has prevented Moscow from mobilization of larger numbers of its military. By calling the war a “police action” it has been able to circumvent laws preventing conscripts from fighting an undeclared war. Now with this move, most likely a test run, Russia is testing the waters to potentially drastically increase forces against Ukraine without current legal restraints.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine was hit by 96 Russian drones overnight, including around 60 Shaheds launched from multiple directions including Russia and occupied Crimea. Air defenses shot down or suppressed 69 of them across the north, south, east, and center. Strikes were recorded at 7 locations.

Russian losses per 14/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1200 men
+5 tanks
+29 artillery

Ukraine’s 33rd Assault Regiment and 24th “Aidar” Battalion broke through Russian defenses in the Orikhiv sector, Zaporizhzhia region. They’ve liberated Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and parts of Stepove, and captured Russian troops to expand the exchange fund.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pretty much status quo for the fight. No significant breakouts expected from either side. Both sides at a relatively low cycle for drone / missile activity.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 -

No further significant fighting reported, looks like things are settling down.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas and clans continue to fight.

- Only four bodies have been returned to Israel

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Reports of Hamas militants carrying out field executions of Palestinians in Gaza.

Explosions being reported in Gaza from fighting between Hamas and clan forces.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

All 20 living hostages returned, only 4 of the 28 dead have been returned. Failure to return the remains of the hostages will soon become a sticking point and one where Israel can and likely will drag their feet on any withdrawals.

The euphoria of the 20 will soon break down as the requirements of Hamas to disarm, remove themselves from power and turn governing over to other nations / entities will hit reality. As of now, the Eqyptian accord holds the arab nations to a pretty straight forward requirement to hold Hamas accountable. Of note that accord does not address anything to do with a two state solution.

---

Happy Columbus Day

Israeli hostages are free

And the Redoubt feels the first real storm of the season.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
Pretty much standard weekend for protests. Things were heated as usual in Portland, Chicago and even Seattle. Use of lasers by Antifa et al were prominent. Even medical helicopters were prevented in some cases from flying over downtown Portland due to laser attacks.

Feeling empowered by the local successes of PR claims to non-violent protests, Antifa et al responded by stepping up violence.

***
On the hit parade this weekend is the latest “No Kings” protest / rally. Organizers are expecting 10 million to turn out across the country. Previous protests, though vocal, have not really moved the needle in their direction and away from Trump. The main rallies are expected to be peaceful, though in some areas I expect after dark violence and vandalism directed towards ICE / DHS facilities.

I wonder now that the Treasury dept and FBI are bearing down on the supporters of leftist rioting, how heavily hit will the organizers of “No Kings” , primarily Indivisible be?

***
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Sunday that Americans “should be forcefully rising up” against the federal government following the indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James on federal bank-fraud charges.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Sunday that Americans “should be forcefully rising up” against the federal government following the indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James on federal bank-fraud charges.

His comments came during an interview with MSNBC host Al Sharpton.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/10/chuck-schumer-calls-for-americans-to-forcefully-rise-up-over-letitia-james-indictment-watch/

OBSERVATION - This is not the first time Schumer has incited violence. We’ve seen what this ‘rising up’ is composed of -
- 2020 Floyd/BLM riots
- Arson of Tesla vehicles and dealerships
- Assassination attempt on Trump
- Assassination of Charlie Kirk

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Some commentators are trying to toss him a mulligan saying he’s just under pressure from extremists like AOC. He’s a big boy and should know full well that his words can cause others to act in violence. He has no excuse, AOC or otherwise.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Apparently crypto took a big hit when Trump announced 100% tariffs on China. Same with stocks, but they have recovered today.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Reports that some of the TX NG that were deployed to Chicago were not in compliance with height/weight requirement and were sent home.

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

I’ve noted the term OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop in previous postings, its and intelligence and operational term. Successful elements have a tighter OODA loop, meaning their opponents cannot react quickly enough to changes in the situation before the situation changes again. Trump and his team are a prime example of this principle in action. Trump commands the news cycle, moving forward with action, probes and trolls the left with other comments keeping them off balance. By the time the democrats make some kind of response, Trump is onto his next agenda item, leaving the left floundering for response. Today it is the govt shutdown. First by sombreros, now by quickly shifting funds to keep military paid and other critical feature funded, items that the left thought they had caught Trump on and could cash out on to gain the upper PR hand. The response caught them flat footed, showing that the democrats don’t care about Americans.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump trumped the arab summit in Egypt for failing to invite Netanyahu to the conference on Gaza. Result is the flew with Trump on AF1 to the conference.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
The delivery of Tomahawks could end badly for everyone, and most of all, for Trump himself, - Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Medvedev threatens the President of U.S.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine was attacked by 82 Russian drones overnight, including Shaheds, Gerans, and others. Air defense forces managed to shoot down or suppress 69 of them across the north, east, and south. Strikes were recorded at 7 locations.

Ukrainian drone attack on occupied Crimea, the Simferopol CCGT-TPP), a combined-cycle gas turbine power plant located near Simferopol, was also hit.

Both a fire near the 220 kV “Kafa” electrical substation and a large fire at the Feodosia oil depot are visible on FIRMS.

Russian losses per 13/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+3 tanks
+21 artillery
+2 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kozatske(Moskovske) of Donetsk region and Borovska Andriyivka of Kharkiv region of Ukraine

Analysis and Future Operations —

Trump has been increasing focus on Ukraine ever since putin stiffed him following the Alaska summit and getting a hand on the Gaza conflict. The consideration of sending some Tomahawk missiles is a case in point. Not sure if that bridge is to be crossed soon, as it is apparent that US intel has been helping Ukraine to target the Russian petroleum sector, and very effectively too, with their indigenous drones and missiles.

Fighting along the front continues at moderately heavy levels. Drone/missile activity at minimum, likely building up for another big wave later this week if the pattern holds.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 - UPDATED

Fighting has slowed from over the weekend. Widely scattered incidents from what I’ve been able to gather.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- All remaining living hostages released

- Trump addressed the Israeli parliament.

- Near civil war conditions in Gaza as Hamas fights local clans

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

All remaining living hostages have been released overnight by Hamas. Remains of dead hostages expected to begin to be repatriated later today.

***
US President Donald Trump has told cheering Israeli lawmakers that “this is the historic dawn of a new Middle East”, after helping to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
During the first such address by a US president since 2008, Trump said Monday was a “day of profound joy” after “two harrowing years”.
Trump’s address to the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, comes on the day that the last 20 living hostages held in the Palestinian enclave were released by Hamas.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c709jxxrrvlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

***
At least 27 people have been killed in fierce clashes between Hamas security forces and armed members of the Dughmush family in Gaza City, in one of the most violent internal confrontations since the end of major Israeli operations in the enclave.

Masked Hamas gunmen exchanged fire with clan fighters near the city’s Jordanian hospital, witnesses said.

A senior official in the Hamas-run interior ministry said security units surrounded them and engaged in heavy fighting to detain them. The ministry said eight its members were killed in “an armed assault by a militia”.
Medical sources said 19 Dughmush clan members and eight Hamas fighters had been killed since fighting began on Saturday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5e551j593o

***
Word from Hamas is that they are increasingly unwilling to disarm and step aside from leadership as per the agreed plan demands. They have been forcefully reestablishing their rule in areas formerly controlled by Israel

***
Also, Hamas is being accused of delaying the return of the remains of dead hostages. Some Israeli calls to delay release of Hamas terrorists until the bodies have been returned.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

As much as Trump wants to say the war is over, it wont be until Hamas is fully disarmed and out of power in Gaza. They are focused on only one thing - destroy Israel - and even though they technically lost this round, they are already planning on round 2. Unless Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and others put their foot down to enforce the agreement, like they apparently had in order to force the release of all the hostages, fighting will resume in weeks, if not in days.

Hamas is close to setting off a civil war with Gazan clans for control post war. Though hammered by Israel, Hamas does have the edge in personnel and equipment, especially as they go after clans in a singular manner. The hurt will come should the clans band together against Hamas.

---

Quick report rather than a biggie tomorrow.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
The weekend so far has been relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm. Threat of violence against ICE / DHS facilities is growing.

***
Overnight, two individuals were arrested in Dallas for shining lasers and firing weapons towards a Texas DPS (state trooper) helicopter.

***
CHICAGO -

A large clash erupted at Chicago ICE facility between rioters and Illinois police yesterday.
Illinois State Troopers stood shoulder-to-shoulder with ICE, pushing back the chaos outside Broadview’s detention center near Chicago.

***
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s security now includes 150 Chicago Police Department Officers

- Average officer salary is $150k
- 150 officers cost $22.5M in base salaries + benefits

With overtime Brandon Johnson’s security is estimated to cost taxpayers $33.7 million PER YEAR

His own private army

***

PORTLAND -
More arrests from violent attacks on the Portland ICE facility .

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

A media blitz to depict ANTIFA as just an ‘idea’ and not an actual organization continues to be promulgated by MSM and antifa supporters. At this time it doesn’t seem to be gaining traction.

Also part of a propaganda blitz is the narrative that the Antifa actions are peaceful and nonviolent. MSM pushing the narrative with lots of photos taken during the day of people caring signs and chanting slogans - even wearing animal ‘inflatable’ costumes to soften the image. This narrative has also been pushed hard on social media.

However, when the sun goes down, Antifa elements show up in black bloc to continual their nightly attacks on the facilities absent the smiley cameras of the media.

Yesterday, it seems Antifa let the mask slip thinking that they had sufficiently deflected criticism. In both Portland and Chicago DAY TIME violence spiked upward as the weekend terrorists showed up. Illinois state police had to respond to calls for help by ICE and in Portland more daytime arrests of those assaulting federal agents.

Lawfare continues regarding deployment of NG to both cities and it seems the USSC will be forced to step in to get these activist judges snapped back into line.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Gold and silver are expected to continue to climb, while oil continues to drop.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Nimitz is now operating in the Southern Indian Ocean (via @USNINews fleet tracker), creating a gap in carrier coverage of the Persian Gulf region.

The Ford CSG is reportedly steaming eastward across the Med towards the ME, but no clear info if they will be coming under CENTCOM control as a replacement for the Nimitz.

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

More evidence coming out that Pfizer doctored its reports on how long the spike protein would remain active in recipients of the wuhan jab. Removed evidence that the protein would remain in the system for years and be transmitted to others.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Trump is directing US DOW Secretary Pete Hegseth to pay military personnel despite the federal government shutdown. Funds being redirected from research and development accounts.

***
Dominion Voting systems has been acquired by founder and chairman of Liberty Vote Scott Leiendecker, in a deal which included dropping lawsuits against conservatives.

Leiendecker, former GOP election reform advocate, has officially become the sole owner of Dominion after making the deal contingent on dropping several remaining lawsuits against prominent conservatives and One America News Network (OANN).

https://dailycaller.com/2025/10/09/dominion-voting-systems-acquisition-scott-leiendecker-election-integrity/

OBSERVATIONS - Reports that democrats are now calling for the banishment of Dominion systems from being used for voting. Suddenly democrats are concerned about the security of the system.

***
Hard layoffs and closures of entire agencies is expected to accelerate this next week as democrats continue to filibuster the CR thinking that they are winning the hearts and minds of citizens.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump’s rapid solution to paying our military and keeping other services functional has sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the democrats attempts to blame Trump for lack of funding. It is now doubled back onto being a democrat caused crisis.

---

Illegal Immigration –

Reports that between arrests / deportations and self deportation, now over 3 million illegals are believed to have left the country.

---

China -

China beginning to feel pushback over its sudden control of rare earth materials by numerous other countries.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –

Peskov claims that long-range missiles like the Tomahawk could carry nuclear warheads and warns that Russia can’t know whether Ukraine might use a “dirty bomb.” He questions how Russia should interpret such launches, saying Western experts “must understand this.”

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 118 drones and one Kh-31 missile at Ukraine overnight. Air defense, electronic warfare, and mobile units shot down or suppressed 103 drones across the north, east, and south.

Russian losses per 12/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1240 men
+1 tank
+10 artillery

Ukrainian units of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion “Aidar” together with the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade have liberated the village of Mali Shcherbaky in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

NOTE - Today’s numbers do not seem to reflect the reports of the blunting of a fairly large Russian armor assault yesterday.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Low part of the drone/missile cycle for Russia.

Daily casualties continue on the rise, with these number not being seen at this level for several months. Ukraine and Russians forces have been reclaiming and gaining land with what seems to be a more aggressive, across the front successful effort by Ukraine.

With Gaza out of the way for now, Trump will likely focus more on the Ukraine/Russian war, following a newer, two pronged approach. First is to provide longer range munitions to put the hurt to Russian strategic assets like the petroleum sector and war related factories in range. Second will likely be ratcheting up sanctions with the help of EU.

Russia seems to be expanding its efforts to intimidate NATO and eastern European nations, first using drones and now aggressive displays along borders - see Estonia below. These are designed to try to cow Europe into reducing support for Ukraine.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Board has temporarily closed the Saatse Boot passage after detecting increased Russian border activity. The narrow Estonian road briefly cuts through Russian territory, where vehicles may normally pass without stopping. Authorities say more Russian patrols than usual were seen Friday, prompting the closure to prevent provocations. Extra patrols are deployed, and traffic is being rerouted.

OBSERVATION - Provocation by Russia to put fear into Estonia. Putin has been unable to break the large status quo along the front lines in Ukraine and would be foolish to attempt any military action against any of these baltic nations. But such displays have worked to keep these nations off balance.

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 12, 2025 - UPDATED

A great deal of fog of war is currently over the extent of conflict along their shared border. Here is some info for consideration which is likely accurate do a degree.

Afghanistan’s 201st Khalid bin Walid Army Corps has launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistani outposts in Nangarhar and Kunar following Pakistan’s recent airstrike on Kabul. Heavy artillery fire now reported along the Gavi–Kurram border, the Pakistan-based Khorasan Diary reports

Afghan Defense Ministry announces the end of retaliatory operations against Pakistani forces along the Durand Line. They warn of a strong response if Pakistan violates Afghan borders again.

Taliban Forces seen heading in the direction of the border with Pakistan, amidst ongoing cross-border clashes between the Islamic National Army of Afghanistan and the Pakistani Army.

Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi strongly condemns the incidents of unprovoked firing by Afghanistan on Pakistani territories.
The firing by Afghan forces on civilian populations is a blatant violation of international laws.

Multiple Afghanistani posts have been attacked by Pakistan’s artillery fire, with footage shared directly from field HQ and validated by the network. Including missile strikes on Afghan military positions.

Pakistan’s security forces conducted a precision strike that destroyed the Afghan Taliban’s Barikot base camp across the Chitral sector. Preliminary reports of multiple casualties at the site

OBSERVATION - This isn’t really an even fight. Pakistan has the hardware and experience edge. They are not fighting on the ground within Afghanistan where the Taliban would have an advantage.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Clock ticking on hostage release

- Hamas seizes areas after Israeli withdrawals and immediately begins killing civilians suspected of aiding Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Financial Times: Hamas began regaining control of the Gaza Strip hours after reaching a ceasefire agreement with Israel.

Hamas will not attend the Gaza peace deal signing ceremony, an official has reportedly told AFP

***
Hamas might not return all the bodies of the deceased hostages in Gaza as part of President Donald Trump’s peace deal, according to Israeli officials.
Three unnamed Israeli sources reportedly told CNN this week that the Israeli government knows, due to its intelligence reports, that Hamas might not know the location of and is unable to retrieve the bodies of the 28 deceased hostages.

https://www.christianpost.com/news/hamas-might-not-return-all-deceased-hostages-report.html

***
The terrorist organizations – Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) – opposed “foreign guardianship” over the Gaza Strip in a joint statement on Friday, according to Reuters. The three militant groups in Gaza emphasized that local governance of the Strip is a “purely internal Palestinian matter.”

https://allisraelnews.com/hamas-opposes-foreign-guardianship-in-gaza-refuses-to-disarm

***
Videos posted to social media show Hamas has re-entered areas vacated by Israeli forces in Gaza, reportedly detaining and executing individuals accused of collaborating with Israel or opposing the group.

Sources in Gaza say Hamas internal security launched tonight a large-scale operation to crackdown on dissent in Gaza City. At least 15 members of the Dughmush clan were killed, with intense clashes in the Tel Al-Hawa & Sabra neighborhoods. Hamas vows to execute those it arrested.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas’ aggressive take over of areas once controlled by Israel should give its European and arab supporters pause. Following years of accusing Israel of atrocities, they are silent over Hamas’ wanton murder of gazans.

Hamas has become even more outspoken about refusing to turn in their weapons and in parallel, refusing to step away from ruling Gaza. This is a big red flag that negotiators of the current ceasefire are allowing to pass. As long as Hamas stays in power, there will be no peace in the region.

With these signals that Hamas isn’t serous about the longer term implications of the peace plan - so called Phase 2 - it becomes even more critical that all the hostages are released as promised.

It would not be beyond Hamas’ MO to play games with the release at the last minute. And I fear that the celebrations are premature. Call me a pessimist, but history in the region speaks against current hopes that Hamas will keep their promises.

---

---

Again, it is likely that I wont be posting tomorrow.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
The weekend forecast for protests and the like. Generally, planned protests are still expected to be relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm.

***
CHICAGO -

Four anti-ICE protesters were arrested at a chaotic demonstration outside a DHS facility in Chicago on Friday after a federal judge blocked President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to the Windy City.
Illinois State police in riot gear clashed with an unruly crowd near the ICE facility in Broadview as protests continue to rage in Chicago in the wake of Trump’s illegal immigration crackdown, WLS reported.

Friday’s demonstration came a day after protesters Ray Collins and Jocelyn Robledo — who were carrying loaded weapons when they clashed with ICE officers outside the same Broadview ICE facility on Sept. 27 — had their felony charges dropped after a local grand jury refused to indict them.

This will get worse, long before it gets better.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/the-battle-for-chicago-rages.php#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - this alone should silence the narrative that these protests are ‘peaceful’’ What is disgusting is that this grand jury refused to indict these two Antifaites. Rule of law is rapidly breaking down here and in other large cities, where the residents for some perverted reason prefer violence and crime over making the streets safer.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices drop below $60/barrel for the first time since May 2025.

This comes just one day after President Trump said gas prices will fall to $2.00/gallon.

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1976639792000729394?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Lower prices will help lower transportation costs for products here and take the edge off of any inflation.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

House Speaker Mike Johnson revealed on Fox News this morning that the Democrats will likely keep the government shut down for more than another week until after a scheduled “No Kings” protest against the Trump Administration on October 18.

“It’s being told to us that they won’t be able to reopen the government until after that rally because they can’t face their rabid base.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/speaker-mike-johnson-reveals-democrats-plan-keep-government/

OBSERVATION - Likely speculation on Johnson’s part, though the logic makes sense. A big driver forcing the democrats hand has been the very vocal leftists in the party. If Schumer allows it to go past the “No King 2” protests, then the leftists can vent, having a ‘cause’, then pull the rug out to get things restarted. Bad point for Schumer and the good point for Trump is that this additional week will give Trump more time to execute his govt shrinkage efforts and maintain the narrative that the democrats are doing this to gain favor of their vocal leftist elements - over the needs of the country.

***
The White House began conducting mass layoffs on Friday amid a prolonged government shutdown, including slashing an entire department under the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The entire staff at the Community Financial Institutions Fund (CDFI) received a layoff notice on Friday, an administration official confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation. The program’s elimination comes as White House officials repeatedly warned that the administration would pursue mass firings and budget cuts if Democrats did not reverse course and reopen the government.

The CDFI fund was targeted because the program illegally doled out awards based on race and espoused left-wing gender ideology and radical climate policies, according to the administration official.

The fund awarded $4.9 million to the “Local Initiatives Support Corporation,” which publishes material condemning “whiteness” in community development. It has also supported LGBTQ clinics that provide so-called “gender-affirming hormone therapy” to clients “of any age,” and granted $6.7 million to the Clearinghouse CDFI, which hosted a fashion show promoting transgenderism.

https://dailycaller.com/2025/10/10/trump-admin-fires-entire-agency-in-one-swift-move-amid-schumer-shutdown/

RELATED -
Unions representing scores of federal workers have asked a judge to intervene and halt the government shutdown-related layoffs that the Trump administration announced Friday.

According to Bloomberg, the emergency request was filed with U.S. District Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco after Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, posted about the firings on social media.

“The RIFs have begun,” Vought wrote Friday afternoon on X, using the abbreviation for reductions in force.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/government-shutdown-layoffs-labor-unions/2025/10/10/id/1229880/

MORE RELATED -
The Trump administration revealed in a court filing that more than 4,000 federal workers were fired Friday as a result of the ongoing partial government shutdown.

The mass layoffs will affect government workers in at least seven Cabinet-level agencies, according to the document filed in the District Court for the Northern District of California, where federal employee labor unions are suing to stop the Trump administration from downsizing amid the lapse in federal funding.

The bulk of the layoffs took place at the Treasury Department and the Department of Health and Human Services, where approximately 1,446 employees and up to 1,200, respectively, were axed.

The Department of Education fired 466 employees; the Department of Housing and Urban Development let go of 442 employees; the Department of Commerce terminated 315 employees; the Department of Energy cut 187 employees; and the Department of Homeland Security laid off 176 employees.

The Justice Department filing notes that other agencies have issued “a general ‘intent to RIF’ notice.”

The Environmental Protection Agency, for example, notified approximately 20-30 employees that they may be fired in the future.

The United States Patent and Trademark Office separately issued shutdown-related RIF notices to 126 employees on Oct. 1.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/11/us-news/shutdown-layoffs-affecting-more-than-4000-federal-workers-begin/

OBSERVATION - Expect another round of massive court cases, with rogue district judges once again trying to usurp the Executive power with their judicial activism. The law is pretty straight forward on Trump’s actions in his favor. It hasn’t been applied in the past because politicians feared the political fallout. It wont be finalized until the USSC likely has to rule on it. Appeals courts likely will side with Trump. Of note the current lawsuit was filed in San Fran - 9th circuit territory, probably hoping that there are enough hard liberals in that court to back up the liberal district judge.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump should be departing soon for Israel.

---

Illegal Immigration –

A lot of focus continues to be on big city efforts. I’m seeing unconfirmed estimates that now up to 3 million illegals have departed the US, many self deporting.

---

China -

President Donald Trump on Friday said that the United States will impose an additional 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls on critical software starting on Nov. 1.

Trump accused Beijing of adopting “aggressive” export controls on nearly all of its products, referring to the Chinese regime’s recent rule changes aimed at restricting shipments of rare earth elements.

He warned that tariffs could be implemented sooner, depending on Beijing’s reaction. He also said China’s new export controls, which would affect all countries, appeared to be a strategy devised by Beijing years ago.

“It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History,” he wrote.

Items containing more than 0.1 percent of rare earth ingredients sourced from China will require export licenses, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. The curbs are set to take effect on Dec. 1.

Rare earths, a group of 17 elements critical for products such as electric vehicles, military jets, and submarines, have become a key issue in the U.S.–China trade talks.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-cancels-meeting-with-chinese-leader-xi-5927613?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=section-1https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/trump-suggests-dropping-spain-from-nato-alliance-over-defense-spending-5927515?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=section-1?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - China surprised the world with these additional restrictions on key metals and related. It has been vocalized loud and long that they were in the process of corralling the global supply of these rare earth metals, to likely use as a hammer against the rest of the world.

The key thing to watch are any impacts to their economy, which so far have been hurt by previous tariffs. Now with an 100% tariff being levied, it will place China in a difficult place where they will almost have to retaliate in some manner either with more restriction on rare earths and the like or add tariffs themselves.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

During the night of October 10–11, Russia launched 78 attack UAVs (Shahed, Geran, and others) from multiple directions including Oryol, Millerovo, Kursk, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s air defense, using EW, drone units, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 54 of them. 21 drones hit six locations.

Russian forces struck energy infrastructure in Odesa region, causing power outages across several settlements.

Russian losses per 11/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1060 men
+1 tank
+6 AFVs
+21 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukrainian Air Assault Forces repelled a major Russian assault on the Dobropillia axis. Russians attempted to capture Vodymyrivka and Sofiivka using 6 tanks, ~40 IFVs, 40+ vehicles, and several hundred troops. Ukraine destroyed 3 tanks, 13 IFVs, 41 vehicles, and eliminated around 100 personnel. Vodymyrivka is now being cleared.

Ukraine drones attacked Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa

Analysis and Future Operations —

A slight easing in the drone attacks, but a substantial number got thru anyway to hit power related targets.

The reports of the scale of fighting in Vodymyrivka and Sofiivka are a little eye opening. For the most part, Russian unit attacks have been on a much smaller scale, hoping to probe into a weak spot in the Ukraine defenses. In this instance, Russia tried to force it with a much larger force supported to a degree with tanks and APCs. Final results will show up on tomorrow’s casualty summary. This attack also shows another thing - Russia still has great difficulty in organizing a good combined arms attack with support from other units. They consistently throw these forces essentially with little support against Ukraine defenses, and nearly every time it seems that Ukraine drones and artillery chew them up. Russia still has no real good answer to Ukraine drones.

---

Belarus -

Ministry of Defense of Belarus: troops were put on the highest readiness alert due to President order to check combat readiness

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Clock ticking on hostage release

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Gateway Pundit: “The official stressed that no U.S. military personnel will be deploying to Gaza, but that 200 U.S. servicemembers will be operating from inside Israel. In addition to monitoring the ceasefire, the coordination center will help with the flow of humanitarian, logistic and security assistance into Gaza, according to the official.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that he had instructed the Israel Defense Forces to respond with “great force” to any threat or attack by the Hamas terrorist group during the interim stage following the Cabinet’s approval of the ceasefire deal.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Houthis in Yemen threatened new attacks against Israel on Saturday following overnight Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, even as a ceasefire in Gaza took effect after Israel approved a hostage-release deal brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Senior Houthi official Hazam al-Assad, who frequently posts in Hebrew on the social platform X, accused Israel of aggression, writing that “Zionist aggression struck the al-Musayla area before dawn. It seems they want to go back into their shelters.”

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1u25dwtgg#autoplay

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Many are holding their breath to see if Hamas will follow thru on its end of the agreement and release ALL living hostages by the end of Monday, local Israel time. If they refuse to do so, many of their allies will wash their hands as Israel moves forward to finish them off.

Ceasefire movements of Gazans back to the north would interfere with any resumption of Israeli operations as they would want them cleared out before attacking. It took weeks to get Gaza City nearly emptied. Resumption of fighting would result in mass migration back to the south. Buried in this mob are likely Hamas fighters using the crowd to redeploy to these northern portions of Gaza, making Israel’s operations a little more difficult.

Then again, many of these gazans will be going back to rubble, and Israel likely will encourage them to work to leave Gaza altogether.

International components of the ceasefire agreement are quickly moving into place, needing to do so before the hostage release if possible.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran is preparing to file a legal case against Israel and the United States at international courts over the June airstrikes that hit Iranian territory, a senior government official said on Saturday

---

Lebanon -

10 Israeli airstrikes target Wadi al-Najariyah in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army says it targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Israel/Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes targeted bulldozers and other engineering equipment being used to restore Hezbollah bases / facilities.

OBSERVATION - The Lebanese govt has whined about this strike to a degree, but the underlying issues are still present- Hezbollah is actively trying to restore its presence in the south and the Lebanese govt and military are not stopping it in any meaningful way.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The Venezuelan government has formally requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to address recent U.S. military actions in waters off its coast, citing “mounting threats” and the expectation of an “armed attack.”

---

Potentially no post for this coming Sunday

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
Initial weekend forecast for protests and the like. Generally, planned protests will be relatively calm as in the past. Key trouble spots will remain in major cities, particularly Portland and Chicago around ICE facilities where after dark violence has become the norm.

Other potential violence can be expected from pro-hamas / pro-jihadi pop-up protests spinning off from recent ceasefire actions in Gaza. Many will try to promote that Hamas was the winner in the conflict, that Israel must accept a two state ‘solution’ or better yet (for the protestors view) be wiped off the map entirely. These protest will be local an quite likely near Jewish synagogues and other families like religious schools.

***
(FO) California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker threatened to leave the National Governors Association if the bipartisan group did not condemn the Trump administration’s federal surges into Democrat-controlled states. Pritzker said governors of all states should be “standing as one” against the idea that President Trump can federalize National Guard units against the will of governors.

OBSERVATION - This move could begin the process of these blue states setting up a united govt system to oppose the national one. Establishment of a parallel govt is a dangerous step towards CW2

***
PORTLAND -
In posters spread around the town, Portland Antifa announced they’re going to shine lasers at law enforcement helicopters this weekend.

OBSERVATION - Use of these are the types of high powered lasers rioters have used to damage the eyes of law enforcement during the 2020 riots. Four illegals were found and arrested after a laser attack on a fed helicopter just a couple weeks ago and another arrested earlier this week shining a laser at police.

***
Now that the local and national press have started to cover the Portland ICE area round-the-clock in reaction to the President, Antifa have devised a plan where they are encouraging one another to come in animal costumes.

The costumes serve the function of masking the violent extremism to make the direct action appear like a family-friendly gathering on camera, and to whitewash the past ultraviolence.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976507813259010143?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

During the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots, this was the tactic Antifa used to make their violence seem less threatening on camera. They put the females at the front, and the rioters used lasers and projectiles at the back.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1976509848540828142?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - The narrative being pushed by civic leaders and Antifa are that the nightly riots are ‘peaceful’ and non threatening, a story that got filtered into the district judge’s decision against US deployment of OR NG to protect ICE and other govt facilities. Antifa is using lessons learned from 2020 to try to gain PR support here.

***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals scheduled a hearing on the Trump administration’s appeal of Oregon-based Federal District Judge Karin Immergut’s ruling today. A three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Court reversed Immergut’s ruling against federalizing the National Guard, but allowed the block on deploying troops in Oregon to stand.

CHICAGO -

U.S. District Judge April Perry has ruled that the Trump Administration’s deployment of federalized troops with the Texas National Guard to Chicago violated the 10th and 14th Amendments, as well as the Posse Comitatus Act, granting a temporary restraining order to prevent the further deployment and/or mobilization of Texas Guardsmen to assist with federal operations in Illinois.

This order comes as National Guardsmen are now on the ground outside the Broadview ICE facility near Chicago Per Border Patrol Commander Bovino, 150 National Guardmen are at that ONE ICE facility

OBSERVATIONS - Another contorted ruling by an activist judge who doesn’t
even get the constitution correct.

***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE violated a Biden-era consent decree that placed restrictions on ICE agents conducting warrantless collateral arrests of illegal aliens in states under the jurisdiction of the Chicago, IL ICE Field Office. The consent decree was scheduled to end in May 2025, but Cummings ruled that the decree will remain in force until February 2026 and restrict how ICE agents can conduct collateral arrests during Operation Midway Blitz.

***
(FO) Illinois Federal District Judge Sara Ellis ruled yesterday that federal agents must limit the use of force for the next two weeks, in response to a lawsuit filed by protestors and journalists. Federal agents are restricted from using riot control weapons unless an immediate and serious threat of harm to a person exists, cannot use force to take someone to the ground unless an immediate threat exists, and cannot use gas canisters or compressed air launchers unless federal agents would otherwise be authorized to use lethal force.

OBSERVATION - This ruling will likely encourage Antifa et al to become more violent in its actions knowing that ICE and federal agents have their hands tied.

***
(FO) According to a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) internal report, Chicago gangs were offered bounties for assassinating ICE agents and officials.

“Gangs in the Pilsen and Little Village neighborhoods have ‘spotters’ stationed on building rooftops, armed with guns, monitoring law enforcement activity in those areas. Communication is conducted via radio,” according to the report.

The report said ICE agents have a $5,000 bounty and high-ranking officials have a $50,000 bounty.

DHS said bounties and directions were allegedly directed from Mexico.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/3844197/bounties-assassinate-ice-chicago-came-from-mexico/

OBSERVATION - Gang bangers were warning before the ICE operations in Chicago that they would target federal agents. Ongoing legal wrangling may well encourage these gangs to pursue lethal actions knowing that the CPD will not go after them in an aggressive manner.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
During a roundtable event at the White House yesterday, President Donald Trump said he will direct Secretary of State Marco Rubio to designate Antifa groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).

The FTO designation would unlock new authorities the Trump administration could use to target far left groups and their support networks. Under the Bush-era Executive Order 13224, the Trump administration can freeze the assets of any FTO as well as individuals or entities that provide support, services, or assistance to FTOs.

(FO) According to Trump administration officials, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller is playing a central role in the Trump administration’s effort to investigate domestic terror networks, which includes the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF), the IRS, the Treasury Department, the Justice Department, and the Department of Homeland Security.
According to a White House document provided to Reuters, George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, ActBlue, and activist group Indivisible were named as donors or fundraisers for protests where violent incidents occurred since 2016. “The goal is to destabilize Soros’ network,” a White House Official added.
OBSERVATION - This will affect Antifa actions in CW2 realm bigly . Follow the money, honey

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Army is canceling billions of dollars in traditional weapons programs and replacing them with commercial-style drones after an experimental brigade achieved three times the normal enemy kill rate using tactics borrowed directly from Ukraine’s drone revolution.

Col. Joshua Glonek’s 3,500-soldier brigade from the 10th Mountain Division killed three times as many enemy fighters as typical units during an 11-day winter training exercise in Germany, according to senior Army officials. The dramatic results came after the Army equipped his unit with approximately 150 drones and dozens of loitering munitions—the same consumer-grade technology dominating battlefields in Ukraine.

During the February training exercise at a U.S. Army base in Germany, Glonek’s brigade used inexpensive reconnaissance drones to spot roughly two dozen enemy vehicles hiding under trees. Within 10 minutes, his artillery battalion aimed all cannons at the target. A volley of about 144 simulated artillery rounds followed, enough to destroy most of the vehicles.

The results impressed Gen. Randy George, the Army’s chief of staff, who touted the brigade’s success to Congress. The training demonstrated that Army formations were “capable of rapidly improving their lethality,” he told lawmakers, according to the NY Times.

But the real story goes deeper. The exercise revealed that about 90% of the brigade’s fire missions began with a drone finding the enemy and monitoring the kill. “We had more targets than we had assets to shoot them, just because the drones were so much more capable,” Glonek said.

The drone success is forcing unprecedented budget cuts. Gen. George eliminated the M-10 Booker light tank after spending more than $1 billion developing it. The reason? Military planners concluded it could be easily destroyed by a $500 to $1,000 kamikaze drone.

The Army also slashed its Joint Light Tactical Vehicle order from 50,000 units to just 18,000. The 7-ton armored troop carrier was designed to survive roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan, but makes less sense in drone-dominated warfare.

Savings are being redirected to the Infantry Squad Vehicle—a dune-buggy-style troop carrier with nine seats, an engine, and roll bars. Instead of armor, it relies on speed and ability to move under tree cover to evade drone attacks.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/u-s-army-scraps-1-billion-tank-bets-on-consumer-drones-after-experimental-brigade-triples-kill-rate/

OBSERVATIONS - Military planners need to really look closely at the rapidly evolving tactics and weapons of the Ukraine war. Then plan appropriately.

Big key here is ‘commercial grade’. The procurement side has killed many good ideas with the desire for ‘military grade’ which explodes the cost of these items by orders of magnitude.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats digging holes -

“Chuck Schumer’s disgusting claim that “every day gets better“ is a sickening display of elitist indifference as the Democrat Shutdown plunges hardworking Americans into anxiety, despair, and financial ruin. His arrogance lays bare the Democrats’ sick betrayal of service members missing paychecks, families turning to food pantries to survive, small businesses teetering on the brink, and travelers facing excruciating delays.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/10/schumer-taunts-americans-as-democrat-shutdown-crushes-them/

OBSERVATION - Democrats may think that hurting the American people is good for them in this standoff. I don’t think that is playing like that across the country.

***
The FBI has terminated two special agents linked to Jack Smith’s investigations into President Donald Trump, with personnel action taken against a third. These moves come amid growing scrutiny over the bureau’s role in what many see as a politically motivated operation against Trump and his supporters.
Details emerged this week that the agents were part of “Arctic Frost,” an FBI probe launched in April 2022 that laid the groundwork for Smith’s federal cases against Trump. That investigation zeroed in on Trump’s handling of classified documents and efforts surrounding the 2020 election, culminating in the January 6 events. Revelations show the FBI obtained phone toll records from eight Republican senators during this probe, tracking numbers dialed and call durations without content.
https://thelibertydaily.com/jack-smiths-dominoes-start-falling-two-fbi-agents/

OBSERVATION - Accountability time, not political retribution. Since they had the gall to do it to senators, just think what they were willing to do to you simply for your political views.
On a side issue, I expect that many of the FBI agents that were mixed in the J6 protests will also be on the curb for their willingness to instigate violence and rioting.

***
Speaking of accountability - A grand jury has indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on a fraud charge, a person familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Thursday.
The evidence, produced publicly, is very clear that she deliberately misrepresented property for loans and other govt related reasons. I wouldn’t be surprise if more charges come out sooner than later.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Nobel peace prize went to an unknown Venezuelan individual who has opposed Maderao regime from the shadows. Not surprising given the ultra leftists that are on the committee. Remember, they gave the prize to 0bama who did absolutely NOTHING to further peace.

---

Illegal Immigration –

A lot of focus continues to be on big city efforts.

---

Phillipines –

Washington and Manila kicked off the latest iteration of the Sama Sama naval drills on Monday in the vicinity of a western Philippine province located near South China Sea hotspots.

Sama Sama, a Tagalog word that translates to “together,” originally began as a series of maritime security drills in 2017. Since then, the U.S.-Philippine co-hosted exercise has grown to include more combat activities, as well as anti-piracy and humanitarian missions, amid Manila’s naval modernization efforts.

Participants and observers for 2025’s iterations include the U.S., Philippines, Australia, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Thailand, Italy, Canada and New Zealand. BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151), BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177), USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) and JS Ōnami (DD-111) are among the vessels confirmed to participate in the exercise, which is set to run Oct. 6-17.

While most activities and location areas remain unclear, a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force news release stated that Onami will hold a tactical exercise to improve anti-surface warfare capabilities with U.S. and Philippine forces.

https://news.usni.org/2025/10/08/u-s-and-philippine-forces-drill-near-south-china-sea-flashpoint
OBSERVATION - Growth in these exercises to counter Chinese aggressive actions in the region.

***
Manila provided supplies and protection to Philippine fishermen against a fleet of Chinese patrol ships, warships and aircraft operating in the South China Sea near two disputed maritime features on Tuesday.

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) dispatched a total of 15 cutters and offshore vessels early Tuesday to resupply and escort fishermen operating in the vicinity of the Scarborough and Sabina shoals, according to an agency press release. The assistance mission falls under the country’s Kadiwa Initiative, which aims to bolster Filipino fishery output in the disputed waters amid Chinese harassment and supply constraints.

The deployment included the country’s largest cutters, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) and BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702).

Chinese forces responded by deploying 34 cutters and maritime militia vessels around the two shoals and engaged in “intimidation tactics,” according to the PCG. Footage from the PCG shows Chinese forces shadowing and closing in on the agency’s vessels.

Despite the Chinese presence, around 100 Philippine vessels received fuel, food and other supplies to extend their fishing operations in the South China Sea, reads the PCG’s news release.

https://news.usni.org/2025/10/08/philippine-coast-guard-resupplies-fishermen-in-the-south-china-sea-despite-chinese-harassment

OBSERVATION - I’m becoming more and more convinced that the first shots of a war with China will not break out with a move on Taiwan, but from eventually combat against the Philippines.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian military strength in 2020 was third to China and the United States. Russia had nearly a million active duty troops and about 12,000 tanks. Most of them are older models. By 2025 Russia was still number 3, but three years of war in Ukraine had destroyed most of Russia’s tanks, killed or wounded about a million soldiers and caused over a million Russian military age men to flee the country. Ever-growing Western economic sanctions have weakened the economy and by 2025 nearly all the national cash reserves had been spent keeping the economy going. Between now and 2030 Russian and Western economists agree that the Russian economy is in bad shape, a condition made worse since the government has converted it to a war economy, meaning civilian and infrastructure needs are neglected to support the war effort.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/2025101061552.aspx#gsc.tab=0

***
A Russian Navy Pacific Fleet surface group is in the Philippine Sea en route to Southeast Asia, according to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).

The JMSDF tracked the Russian ships Sunday as they passed between two Japanese southwest islands to enter the Philippine Sea.

The Russian Pacific Fleet routinely deploys to Southeast Asia to conduct joint exercises, training, engagement and port visits with countries in the region, except for Singapore, which imposed sanctions on Russia in February 2022 over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation, Russia in March of the same year placed Singapore on its list of unfriendly countries. Russian Navy ships no longer call into Singapore as the force had done in the past.

Russian Pacific Fleet deployments to Southeast Asia are sometimes coupled with deployments to the Middle East, as was the case with the last deployment to Southeast Asia. However, there has been no indication that the current deployment will include a voyage to the Middle East.

https://news.usni.org/2025/10/09/russian-navy-surface-group-sailing-to-southeast-asia

NUCLEAR THREATS –

ISW. The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. The Kremlin is trying to invoke memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to threaten the United States.

ALSO - There are rumors that Russia has moved some nuclear weapons into Venezuela as a counter to US actions in the region.

Economic Impact –

Russia’s metallurgical industry is facing its worst crisis since the 1990s, Moscow Times reports. Due to plummeting demand, high interest rates, and collapsing output, steel plants are cutting staff and considering four-day workweeks. Sanctions have wiped out a third of exports, and production is down over 10% year-on-year. Even the arms industry’s demand can’t offset the decline.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1976562167865340129?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - A point of sanctions are special metals necessary to strengthen steel for military purposes. Those metals have been hard for Russia to come by due to sanctions.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight missile and drone attack.

Shot down:
405/465 Shahed and other type drones
1/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
4/14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
9/12 Iskander-K cruise missiles
1/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

In addition, 4 missiles did not reach their targets (lost locationally, crash sites are being clarified).

Emergency blackouts have been implemented in parts of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions following Russia’s mass strike, DTEK reports. Power cuts are ongoing in Brovary and Boryspil districts, while in Kryvyi Rih, rolling outages are underway. Critical infrastructure is switching to generators, according to local officials. Additional power outages across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, and more.

Russian losses per 10/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1120 men
+5 tanks
+14 AFVs
+13 artillery

Russia is heavily counterattacking near Dobropillia after earlier Ukrainian gains. Yesterday, they launched multiple mechanized assaults on Vodymyrivka, deploying at least 16 vehicles, including IFVs, tanks, and motorcycles, and landed a large infantry force of 50–75 troops in the village. Heavy fighting is still ongoing.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Heavy drone/missile strikes on Ukraine power grid, like Russia did last year. This has spurred talk of Ukraine targeting power production around the Moscow region, so that they can feel the same pain. Ukraine has a lot more capability in that realm than last year and Russia has shown great weakness in protecting its petroleum industry, now poetically having to spread available assets even further.

Spike in Russian armor losses, reflecting increased combat on the ground. The ‘gray zones’ on the battlefield continue to be lethal kill zones for Russian equipment and soldiers. FPV drones supported by surveillance drones continue to rule the battlefield.

---

Europe / NATO General –

NATO’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, will be hosted by the Netherlands and start next week, with 71 aircraft from 14 nations taking part, officials from the Western military alliance said on Friday.
The exercise “sends a clear signal to any potential adversary that we will and can protect and defend all allies against all threats,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.

Jim Stokes, NATO’s director of nuclear policy, told reporters at alliance headquarters in Brussels that Steadfast Noon was “routine” and “not directed at any country”.
“It’s also not linked to any real-world events,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-start-annual-nuclear-exercise-steadfast-noon-october-13-2025-10-10/

---

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 10, 2025 - NEW

Pakistan’s Air Force conducted an air strike against Noor Wali Mehsud, a high-ranking member of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, in Kabul, Afghanistan this week. The Pakistani Defense minister warned Afghanistan that strikes would continue against militants and their backers.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Both sides have finalized their agreements to the Phase 1 plan. 72 hour clock is now ticking.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The United States is sending about 200 troops to Israel to help support and monitor the ceasefire deal in Gaza as part of a team that includes partner nations, nongovernmental organizations, and private sector players, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not authorized for release, said U.S. Central Command is going to establish a “civil-military coordination center” in Israel that will help facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid as well as logistical and security assistance into the territory wracked by two years of war.

OBSERVATION - The US is not the only country that will be sending forces into Gaza, but will be the biggest and directing the actions of all.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Overnight, the Israeli government approved the ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

The Israeli army officially announces that the ceasefire agreement has come into effect as of 12:00 PM local time, 20 minutes ago. Israeli forces have taken up positions along the updated deployment lines (Yellow) in accordance with the ceasefire framework and the return of the hostages

Reports from Gaza indicate that IDF tanks have pulled back from the coastal road in Nuseirat, opening the way for residents to move freely between the northern and southern parts of the Strip.

Large numbers of Gazans are making their way back to northern Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Authorities warned of a possible terrorist infiltration in the West Bank settlement Kohav HaShahar on Friday morning.

A report of a suspected attempt to break into a house in Kohav HaShahar was received by the IDF earlier this morning, the military confirmed. Security forces were dispatched to the scene to conduct searches for the suspected intruder in the area.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-870007

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis in Yemen use Western cellphones to track merchant ships in the Red Sea. They do this by pinging ships for their GPS locations. Even on warships, where communications are encrypted, sailors’ phones are not. This allows ships to be tracked and attacked with drone speedboats armed with explosives, anti-ship missiles, or naval mines.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/2025100963910.aspx#gsc.tab=0

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Let me clear something up - this war is far from being over. Hamas has pledged to remove Israel off the map, one way or another. Many expect them to fully resist the implementation of Phase 2 - their disarmament and total removal from power. For right now, the euphoria of the hostage release is obscuring that fact.

If Hamas keeps its word, all the living hostages should be returned to Israel by Monday afternoon (Israel time) at the latest.

There are some nasty rumors that the vehicles carrying the hostages back to Israeli hands will be mobbed by Gazans. One view is that they will try to prevent the release and ‘recapture’ them. This is fully possible and they did it with previous handovers, though they didn’t try to recapture them. Also unconfirmed is that Israel has warned Hamas that any attempt by these mobs to try to prevent the repatriation of the hostages will be met by lethal means.

So far there have been no serious violations of the ceasefire. Uncontrolled flow of gazans back to the north may well contain Hamas forces moving under the cover of the masses, which may in the future become an issue.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran warns that “the ceasefire in Gaza may be the reason for the collapse of the ceasefire in other places,” according to an advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

OBSERVATION - Rather vague statement, but may be one of concern that Israel will be free to direct more pressure on Iran with possibly more strikes on attempts to rebuild their nuclear program.

---

Central / South America General-

Peru’s Congress voted overnight to remove former President Dina Boluarte (a socialist) and replace her with President of the Congress Jose Jeri (Christian democrat) after several members of Congress were injured in a concert shooting. Jeri immediately promised to “declare a war on crime.”

OBSERVATION - A rightward shift in Peruvian politics. Reflects other recent rightward shifts in central and south America.

---

Surprising breakthrough in Gaza overnight. Trying to make sense of it all, see below.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
A crowd of Islamists in NYC waving Hamas flags declare that they will presumably carry out attacks in the US.

“We did not act enough! We will show up, stronger than we did the first October 7th!”

https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1975765993075908636

Violence broke out in downtown Boston Tuesday night when a pro-Palestinian demonstration escalated into a full-blown riot, leaving four police officers injured and leading to 13 arrests. The clash unfolded on the two-year anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, as hundreds gathered in what organizers called a “Flood Downtown for Palestine” event.

Boston police reported that the trouble started when protesters refused to clear the roadway near the Soldiers and Sailors Monument on Boston Common, blocking emergency vehicles and surrounding cruisers.

As the situation worsened, additional units arrived, but protesters kept fighting back.

“As violence escalated,” police said, more officers were deployed while agitators “continued to resist dispersal.” In total, four officers ended up needing medical treatment for injuries ranging from facial trauma to other assaults sustained in the scrum.

https://thelibertydaily.com/marxist-boston-mayor-pretends-be-tough-after-city/

OBSERVATION - With the current hostage/ceasefire agreement moving forward combined with the two year remembrance of the Oct 7 attack by Hamas, pro-Hamas protestors took the opportunity to raise a ruckus. This action continues to show that their goals is to continue to press for the elimination of Israel and to do so here in the US. They are not satisfied with just holding signs, they are more violence shifted.

***
CHICAGO -

Bulletins from CIS & DHS state four Chicago ICE facilities, including Broadview have been surveilled with detailed layouts, diagrams & photos— posted to an Antifa website with pics of ICE Agents names & faces.

https://x.com/Dapper_Det/status/1975728209191673977

OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous development that could lead to better coordination of Antifa et al attacks on these facilities and agents. Shows a higher level of organization being present.

PORTLAND -

Attorneys general from 20 states have stepped into the dispute between Oregon officials and the Trump administration over the use of National Guard troops to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents who have come under assault from protesters in Portland.

Led by Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, Brenna Bird of Iowa, Gentner Drummond of Oklahoma, and South Carolina’s Alan Wilson, the attorneys general filed an emergency appeal amicus brief with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Oct. 8, charging that Portland police failed to protect ICE agents from “violent rioters,” and that “President [Donald] Trump’s deployment of a small number of National Guard members to defend against this lawlessness is responsible, constitutional and authorized by statute.”

The brief in support of the Trump administration was also signed by attorneys general from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/20-state-ags-back-trump-admin-in-fight-with-portland-over-national-guard-troops-5926749?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

OBSERVATION - This brief shows that Trump is not alone in this showdown with Portland and Chicago in regards to NG activation and deployment under Title 10.

***
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday unanimously voted to lift Judge Immergut’s Temporary Restraining Order on Trump’s mobilization of Oregon National Guard Troops.

However, the Ninth Circuit left in place Judge Immergut’s block on troop deployment.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/breaking-appeals-court-lifts-judges-order-blocking-trump/

OBSERVATION - I am assuming that the ‘blocked on troop deployment’ may refer to CA NG forces being deployed to Portland. From the read, Trump can activate OR NG, but not CA NG. Again, that is outside the lines for judicial action - military deployments are the strict purview of the Executive Branch. The whole of the 9th will likely have to weigh in on this and probably even the USSC before it is all done.

***
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - The above show two fronts of the overall leftist assault on the US that is growing. The pro-Hamas /jihad element, with leftist support and the Antifa / anti-ICE front. Common thread - leftist backing for both.

---

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
(FO) Louis Geri, the man arrested on Sunday ahead of the Washington, D.C. Red Mass at St. Matthews Cathedral had more than 200 homemade explosive devices and Molotov cocktails in his possession.

According to court records, after D.C. police approached Geri, he handed them a manifesto which included threats to Supreme Court justices and ICE.

Geri was also charged with possession of a destructive device and false report of a weapon of mass destruction connected to an incident at the same church in September.

OBSERVATION - No announcement of motivation by media or law enforcement - not surprising since for all appearances this is another leftist. FO sees this as another “lone wolf” incident where the individual has been radicalized to action by leftist social media.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Gold and silver continue to rocket upwards.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has announced that as of today, October 8, federalized members of the Texas Army National Guard, under Title 10 Orders and the command of NORTHCOM, have been deployed into the Greater Chicago Metropolitan Area. According to Northern Command, these Soldiers will be employed to protect federal property and federal government personnel who are performing federal functions, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Another senate vote, and democrats refuse to cross the isle to get the govt running again.

(FO) The Senate Majority Political Action Committee (PAC), linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, told Democrats it would be a mistake to take pressure off of Republicans by voting to end the government shutdown. The Senate Majority PAC said Democrats are winning the shutdown public messaging campaign, in a memo circulated to Democrats that included polling showing likely 2026 voters blame Republicans for the shutdown.

OBSERVATION - They are dangerously clinging to their ‘polling’. I really don’t think the general public has been impacted very much by the shutdown. Republicans are continuing to hammer and win on the democrat funding for illegals medical care.

---

TRUMP Watch –

Trump on Truth Social:

“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”

---

Illegal Immigration –

Leavitt -

“Unlawful crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2025 plummeted to the lowest annual level since the early 1970s, amid the Trump administration’s sweeping clampdown on illegal immigration.”

https://x.com/PressSec/status/1975522156185292850

---

Japan –

Japan’s Joint Staff office disclosed that the Japan maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) conducted a minelaying exercise with a minesweeper tender and destroyer escort last week in Japan’s southernmost islands, which China also claims.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Logistics –

There are reports that a large fire has broken out in Novosibirsk at a factory that manufactures electronics and microchips for the Russian defense industry.

It’s unclear whether a drone from Ukraine was behind the blaze, or whether it was a sabotage incident, or possibly an accident, which the cause of the fire being under investigation. The location is in southern Siberia.

The facility produces electronics, microchips, and services electrical equipment.

According to open sources, the factory also works in soldering components, defense-related equipment, communications, and radio electronics for the Russian defense-industrial complex.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1975934205302575129

OBSERVATION - Unconfirmed reports that the factory is a near total loss.

Economic Impact –

Russian stocks fell to a three-year low after the Foreign Ministry said ties with the US were “destroyed to the core.” The Moscow Exchange dropped over 4%, with heavy losses for Gazprom, Sberbank, VTB, and Rosneft, as analysts cited panic selling after Deputy FM Ryabkov’s remarks.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 112 strike drones, mostly Shaheds. By 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses had shot down or jammed 87 drones across the north, south, and east. Twenty-two strikes hit 12 locations

Bloomberg reports that recent Russian strikes destroyed over half of Ukraine’s domestic gas production, forcing Kyiv to seek emergency fuel imports worth about €1.9 billion to get through winter.

According to sources, the massive Oct. 3 attacks on energy sites in Kharkiv and Poltava regions wiped out roughly 60% of national output.

Power blackout in Chirnomorsk of Odesa region after Russian strikes at critical infrastructure. Russia also attacked port infrastructure in Odesa region

Ukraine drones have reportedly attacked an oil depot in Matveev Kurgan of Rostov region

A fire is currently burning at the Efimovka Oil Pumping Station on the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk Pipeline, which runs between the Ural Mountains and the Black Sea, following a drone strike earlier tonight by Ukraine.

Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant in Kotovo, Volgograd region. The local governor reported debris falling on a boiler facility and a fire at fuel and energy infrastructure sites. FIRMS data confirmed fires at the Kotovo plant and at the Yefimovka pumping station, about 8 km to the south.

Russian losses per 09/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1020 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+15 artillery

From reports, the bulk of the Russian attacks have been in the Pokrovsk sector. Northern and southern fronts relatively quiet.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Drone wars are going at it hammer and tongs, with both sides targeting oil/gas production and distribution. This is critical for both sides, though Ukraine is likely in a better shape since they’ve been able to adapt to the past several winters with affected supplies of oil and gas. Russians not so, now feeling a real pinch in gasoline supplies and other economic woes. for the first time.

Watching the Pokrovsk sector as indicators are that this is where Russia will attempt its next offensive. A key factor on when this will kick off may well be determined by the availability of fuel to haul troops and supplies to the front. In addition to enhanced Ukraine defensive fortifications, the area continues to swarm with Ukraine FPV drones.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Macron held talks with the leaders of the two chambers of parliament on Tuesday, hinting at a possible move to dissolve the lower-house National Assembly and trigger snap elections. The talks come as outgoing PM Sébastien Lecornu holds “last-ditch” negotiations with political parties aimed at breaking the country’s political deadlock.

OBSERVATION - Macron’s status in the world is crumbling as he can’t keep things going at home, let alone on the rest of the world’s stage

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas and Israel come into agreement on a Phase 1 plan for hostage releases and ceasefire.

- Trump to head to Israel this weekend and speak before the Knesset

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Trump announced early Thursday that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his peace plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said shortly after, “With God’s help, we’re bringing everyone home.”
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump will arrive in Israel and on Sunday address the Knesset in Jerusalem, according to Ynet.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas and Israel have come to an agreement for a Phase 1 ceasefire. Details of the agreement are still trickling out but here’s what I’ve been able to put together so far.

As per N12News:

-Once the agreement is signed (scheduled for 12:00 PM local time today), IDF troops will withdraw to the designated line within 24 hours of signing.
NOTE - This ‘line’ leaves Israel in control of 53% of Gaza.

-All living hostages will be released at once from Gaza by Monday at the latest; deceased hostages will be released later, in stages.
NOTE - Conflict may have caused access problems to some of the bodies, so recovery may be delayed.

- 1700 detained Gazans and 250 Palestinians serving life sentences are expected to be transferred to Turkey

-Hamas Nukhba terrorists who participated in the October 7 attack will not be released.
NOTE - This was the military unit that lead the attack into Israel on Oct 7.

-The IDF will control an estimated 53% of Gaza until the last hostage is released.

-Hamas will not hold ceremonies to release the hostages.

-The Rafah Crossing will be opened in both directions.
NOTE -Rafah Crossing is Egyptian controlled and may have lax inspection protocols

-600 trucks of aid will be brought into Gaza each day.

- Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and the US have signed as guarantors of the agreement.

Netanyahu’s office: The ceasefire in Gaza will take effect after the Israeli government approves it this evening.

A leading Palestinian source told Al Jazeera: Progress has been made on the prisoner exchange lists and guarantees that there will be no return to war after the release of prisoners. The Jerusalem Post, citing Israeli officials: no Nukhba terrorists who actively participated in the October 7 massacre will be released.

Palestinian media reports that the Israeli army deployed tanks to the Rashid coastal road to prevent Palestinians from returning to Gaza City and the Strip’s north. Footage shows the tanks firing shells near a crowd of Palestinians gathering in the area

The IDF is on especially high alert as a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is expected to take effect.

The IDF is concerned that Hamas may attempt to exploit the final hours before the deal takes effect to launch additional attacks, fire rockets, or carry out abduction attempts.

Speaking Wednesday night, IDF sources welcomed the deal but stressed that all forces remain under strict operational directives. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir instructed troops operating deep inside Gaza and along the northern front to remain fully alert, focus on defense, and be prepared for any unexpected developments.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/416009

***
There are reports of Red Cross ambulances entering Gaza to undisclosed locations

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Shin Bet and IDF announced on Wednesday that they had dismantled a major arms smuggling operation from Iran, intended for terrorist cells operating in the West Bank.

According to the military statement, the intercepted cargo included a considerable arsenal: 15 anti-tank rockets, 29 Claymore charges, 4 drones (including two explosive drones), an RPG launcher, 3 warheads, 20 hand grenades, 53 pistols, 7 assault rifles, 9 machine guns, as well as 750 pistol rounds.

Security services have arrested an arms trafficker from the Ramallah region, whose interrogation led to the uncovering of the supply network.

The operation resulted in the identification of the network responsible for the smuggling, linked to the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force, headed by Ezatollah Bakri.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-israel-thwarts-large-iranian-arms-smuggling-operation-to-west-bank

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Gulf Cooperation Council: Gaza agreement must be the beginning of a path leading to a two-state solution

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Boy did I ever miss this call! All trends pointed to efforts to fail. It appears that Hamas folded under concentrated pressure from Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, making it clear to them there was no room for maneuver. At least I caught that much, just doubted they wouldn’t be this effective.

We are not out of the woods yet as it appears that the agreement is still only partial and that there will be considerable wrangling over a “Phase 2”.

Questions remain.
What Hamas must do and will they do it:

1. Hamas must lays down their weapons.

2. Hamas gives up rule in Gaza.

3. Gaza must be deradicalized terror-free zone.

These three items are probably Hamas’ greatest sticking points and may have support from Turkey, Egypt and Qatar to retain some control and presence in Gaza. Being trigger happy, this part of the deal may fall apart and resumption of fighting resume to some degree.

It is being made clear by some officials that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will resume operations, this time without hostage related constrictions.

There has been a lot of speculation on just how far Israel will eventually pull out of Gaza. Most speculation suggests that Israel will maintain control of the Philadelphia corridor - area along the Gaza / Egyptian border - as well as a security buffer zone around the area plus and extended presence in N Gaza, given that this area poses a threat as a rocket launch area towards more populated areas of Israel.

Heightened alert by Israeli forces for attempts to kidnap IDF soldiers. By Hamas thinking, they are not covered by the current agreement, thereby allowing them to retain a “hostage” leverage for the ongoing talks. If they do this during the ceasefire, it would be a violation and all bets will be off.

Hostages were the biggest card in Hamas’ hand and should the agreement be followed, they will lose that edge. It is therefore more likely that Hamas will be tamed to a degree. The loss of military and political power in Gaza will hurt it substantially. Already there is increasing word of fighting between Hamas elements, gangs and tribal clans for control of areas. Enough hard core Hamas followers will likely be able to go to ground that they could try to resurrect the movement at a later date.

International talk looking to use this agreement as a spring board to a two state solution will go on but nothing but talk will happen in the near term. Israel would almost have to be forced at the barrel of a gun to permit a Palestinian ‘state’ and have Jerusalem divided. LETS REMEMBER, in 2005, Israel removed all jews from Gaza, left a well developed and profitable agriculture industry for the arabs, and allowed them to govern themselves. Within two years, Hamas took control with the popular vote of the people and now here we are today. Neither Hamas or the PA in their charters acknowledge Israel’ right to exist and both have been committed to the elimination of the nation. Gives us a preview of how this ‘two state’ solution will pan out.

Over the course of the next week, we’ll see if Hamas is going to play by the rules. I am hopeful that the hostages get returned without delay of monkeyshines by Hamas. But unless Hamas is completely eliminated from the scene, the terror clock has only been reset and what ever radical jihadi sect takes control of Gaza begins working towards the next attack.

With a tentative halt to the fight in Gaza, Israel will once again be fixing their eyes on Iran and the Houthis, their only active proxy. With Trump expressing a willingness to go after any nuclear weapons program again, Iran is treading carefully.

Houthis are cockroaches, able to hide drones and rockets for attacks on Israel, but their Red Sea blockade seems to be losing its grip. Also, Houthis will be losing their moral justification for attacking Israel with a successful ceasefire.

---

Lebanon -

The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday killed Hezbollah terrorist Mahmoud Ali Issa in the Deir Aames area of Southern Lebanon’s Tyre District. Issa served as Hezbollah’s representative in the nearby Kara area, where he was responsible for managing the Iranian proxy’s financial and military ties with local residents.

OBSERVATION - Israeli actions against Hezbollah will not be affected by a ceasefire in Gaza. I expect these operations to continue until the Lebanese army and govt fully stand up and remove Hezbollah.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has announced the activation of the “Independence 200 Plan” in the Carabobo and La Guaira Integral Defense Zones of Northern Venezuela, in response to “aggressive maneuvers” by the United States in the Southern Caribbean, with the plan involving all elements of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela, including the Bolivarian National Militia.

As part of the plan, defensive and protective measures have been put in place at critical infrastructure sites, including airports and ports, in Caracas and across Northern Venezuela, specifically mentioning the mobilization of military forces to Maiquetía International Airport.

Earlier today, Buk-M2E Surface-to-Air Missile Systems were already spotted having been deployed at Generalísimo Francisco de Miranda Military Air Base in Caracas, while anti-tank concrete barriers were seen pre-staged on the Caracas - La Guaira Highway near Maiquetía Airport.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1976101516667912435?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Efforts at the airbase / airports and other locations reflect a defensive method seen at Grenada where the airport runways were blocked off, preventing the arrival of follow on aircraft and troops to support the initial paratroopers of the 82d ABN.

At this stage, I don’t see a major US ground operation against Venezuela. Higher probability of bombing / missile strikes against inland narco-terrorist targets with possible seizures of naval facilities that have been supporting the drug flow via the ocean. The US has the forces available to execute such operations right now and could do so as ordered.

---

---

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United Nations just put a giant target on the backs of homeschoolers worldwide. Under the guise of “human rights,” the U.N.’s controversial “education” bureaucracy is officially demanding that all governments regulate and control home education—if they allow it at all.

The U.N.’s demands include “education standards” for homeschooling, as well as “accountability” to government. The outfit is also demanding mandatory registration, forced “evaluations” of homeschoolers by authorities, compulsory “home visits,” and much more. In fact, the agency is even calling for U.N.-approved values and attitudes to be imposed on children across a wide array of issues, with U.N. control of “education content.”

The new U.N. Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) report on home education, titled “Homeschooling through a human rights lens,” lays out the most draconian global assault on home education in history. The powerful global agency, long dominated by card-carrying communists, claims governments must bring homeschooling under their thumb—for the benefit of the children, of course.

https://harbingersdaily.com/god-given-parental-rights-experts-decry-un-education-agency-for-seeking-to-take-over-homeschooling/

OBSERVATION - The left’s unending efforts to brainwash our children, in addition to controlling other aspects of their lives and essentially removing them from the control of their parents has been very evident here in the US and exposed in a greater detail during the wuhan plandemic. The UN, among other globalist entities, provides the support and impetus towards this goal.

***
Another domino fell Friday in the collapse of collusion by financial institutions seeking to impose net-zero ideology on the American marketplace, as the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) closed its doors.

“Net-zero,” which envisions achieving zero-sum emissions of so-called “greenhouse” gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is one element of the radical-left’s ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) ideology. Financial institutions belonging to groups such as NZBA agree to discriminate against, or in favor of, companies based on whether or not they adhere to net-zero mandates.

“On paper, the NZBA, which was convened by the UN Environment Programme finance initiative but led by banks, encouraged members to slash the carbon footprint of their investments and help drive the transition to net zero emissions by 2050,” The Guardian noted Friday.

Over the past two years, such collusive efforts have come under scrutiny for being potential anti-trust violations.

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/10/06/another-financial-industry-climate-collusion-cohort

OBSERVATION - The influence of net zero globalists have been taking serious hits over the past year as the waste and excessive costs of these green energy schemes have come to fruition. The inertia of the drive will continue for a while, but hopefully smart govts can breach the losses and get back to sound science and energy production.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***

CHICAGO -

Chicago Mayor Johnson just declared that war with Trump is “on the table” during a press conference after signing an EO establishing “no ICE zones” across the city.

When asked what’s on the table if the Trump administration continues deporting noncitizens, he replied, “Everything.”

He escalated further, reminding the press that he thinks the “right-wing” in America wants a “Civil War rematch,” adding that the “President of the United States has declared war.”

https://x.com/MediasLies/status/1975220254356730094

Chicago’s Democrat Mayor Brandon Johnson suggested on Tuesday that the Chicago Police should arrest ICE agents and other federal officers who he claims are breaking his new executive order aimed at hampering immigration enforcement.

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/10/07/chicago-mayor-brandon-johnson-calls-for-arrests-of-ice-officers/

OBSERVATION - Johnson is treading on very thin ice. His approval rating by one poll is down to 4% and such inflammatory statements are crossing over into insurrection. 96% probably would approve of his arrest for such.

Still stinging from the national rebuke for failing to come to the aid of federal law enforcement, Chicago police will not be stupid enough to try to arrest feds on city property.

***
FBI Director Kash Patel just revealed that he’s surging FBI resources to Chicago to take on violent crime and make the streets safe and help DHS.

***
Federalized Soldiers with the Texas Army National Guard have arrived at the Elwood Army Reserve Center in the far southwestern suburbs of Chicago, after several hundred were ordered there earlier this week by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth against the wishes of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.

OBSERVATION - Likely waiting for final deployment to the ICE facility once some to the legal wrangling are over.

PORTLAND -

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Fox News Tuesday that she issued an ultimatum to Portland’s top officials to contain Antifa demonstrations.

Noem said she told Portland’s mayor point-blank that federal authorities would “cover him up” with a surge of manpower if city leadership failed to enforce basic security measures.

Noem said she delivered the warning during face-to-face meetings with both the mayor and the city’s police chief. She also met with the state police superintendent.

“I met with [the police chief] and also the superintendent of the state police. I told them what we wanted. We wanted more security here at the building, a bigger buffer zone to keep our officers safe. We wanted to have their streets opened up again and not let the anarchists run this city anymore,” Noem said.

https://americafirstreport.com/i-told-them-what-we-wanted-kristi-noem-delivers-blunt-warning-to-portland-officials-on-antifa/

OBSERVATION - Key to this is a face to face dressing down of Portland officials. Videos showing the participants leaving the meeting showed the police chief with a very red face looking like he got a serious a$$ chewing. Noem knows she has the full backing of Trump in this matter and made it painfully clear they better shape up.

---

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

A Dallas-based auto lender built on giving car loans to illegals has just gone belly up, and it’s dragging Wall Street down with it.
Tricolor Holdings was once hailed by the US Treasury as a “community development” success story. Now, they’ve just filed for bankruptcy as fraud allegations and a full-blown federal investigation overtake them. The company, which sold overpriced used cars to illegals and wrapped the scheme in a feel-good “social lending” label, is leaving major US banks like JPMorgan, Barclays, and Fifth Third staring at massive losses.

https://revolver.news/2025/10/the-country-is-healing-a-company-that-provided-car-loans-to-illegals-just-went-belly-up/

***
Gold has broken past $4000/oz mark, due to a dollar weakened over concerns on the duration and depth of the ongoing govt shutdown.

Silver poised to break $40/oz.

***
(FO) The Trump administration could announce a bailout plan for U.S. farmers hit by the U.S.-China trade war as soon as today. According to sources familiar with the plan, initially the bailout plan will give $15 billion in aid to farmers, but the government shutdown could hinder implementation.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told Newsmax on Tuesday that former members of the Biden administration should face criminal consequences following reports that Republican senators were surveilled by U.S. intelligence agencies.

Tuberville’s comments came after Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, asserted Monday that the Biden administration’s FBI targeted eight Republican senators as part of an election-related investigation, calling it “worse than Watergate.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/tommy-tuberville-biden-administration-fbi/2025/10/07/id/1229422/

OBSERVATION - Absent motivation from Bondi to get the job done, those involved, including Smith, are likely to skate.

***
New Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:

71% of Americans support using the U.S. military to kill drug traffickers in Latin America, including:

- 89% of Republicans

- 67% of Independents

- 56% of Democrats

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/10/07/new-harvard-capsharris-poll-says-dems-missing-more-than-just-the-drug-boats-n3807595

OBSERVATION - Democrats are once again finding themselves on the losing side of the argument.

***
The Schumer Shutdown is the gift that keeps on giving. Not only did the Democrats leave open the door to massive federal workforce layoffs, as we’ve reported here at PJ Media, but now they’ve created a situation where the Trump administration finally broke the Democrat gridlock in getting its nominees confirmed.

Tuesday night, the Republican majority in the Senate was able to confirm a batch of 107 of Donald Trump’s nominees. It did so through a party-line vote and reduced the number of nominees waiting for confirmation to “double digits,” according to Fox News.

OBSERVATION - More evidence that the democrat decision to block the CR was a knee jerk reaction to the rabid leftists in the party and the consequences not well thought out.

---

China -

(FO) Taiwanese officials are reviewing the national medical logistics to isolate it from exploitation from China. Taiwanese defense officials are reopening negotiations with the United States on acquiring the MH-60R anti-submarine helicopter for the Republic of China Navy.

---

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
The momentum for a Ukrainian settlement that emerged after Putin and Trump’s meeting in Alaska has been exhausted, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov.

Logistics –

Russia has lost most of the 12,000-strong tank force it had in 2022. Currently, Russia has fewer than 3,000 tanks and uses them sparingly due to the lethality of Ukrainian drones

Economic Impact –

Belarus quadrupled its gasoline exports to Russia in September as Moscow faced fuel shortages due to Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, Reuters reports. About 49,000 tons (14,500 barrels/day) were shipped by rail from Belarusian refineries to Russia last month, according to agency sources.

---

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 183 strike drones (Shahed, Gerbera, etc.) on various fronts of which 100 were Shaheds. As of 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses shot down or neutralized 154 of them. 22 hit 11 target locations.

Overnight, Russian drones targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A strike on a thermal power plant injured staff and caused serious damage to the station’s equipment, according to DTEK.

Russian losses per 08/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1010 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novohryhorivka village of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine

Russian media confirm a railway line between Stroganovo and Mshinskaya was blown up in the morning, causing a locomotive and several cars of a military cargo train to derail. Traffic on the section has been halted, with passenger and freight trains rerouted and delayed for several hours. Security services are clearing the site.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Moderately high Russian drone count. Action on the ground still moderately intense based on reported Russian losses.

Report on Belarus exports of gasoline to Russia further identifies the fact that Ukraine’s offensive against Russian oil industry is hurting it deeply. I wouldn’t be surprised to see concentrated attacks on Belarus pipelines on the Russian side of the border to impact this source as well.

---

Europe / NATO General –

Germany will authorize police to shoot down threatening drones, says the interior minister. The country is also exchanging information with Israel and Ukraine to strengthen its own anti-drone defenses. — AFP

***
After his seventh chosen Prime Minister resigned a month after being appointed and just hours after presenting the ‘new cabinet’, French President Emmanuel Macron is in the deepest crisis of his troublesome mandate.

The British Times writes that Macron has become a ‘lame duck running out of options.’

French newspaper Le Monde adds that Macron faces a hard choice of three scenarios: 1) appoint a new prime minister, 2) dissolve the National Assembly again and hold elections, or 3) – in the worst case – resign himself.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/lame-duck-macron-clings-power-after-another-french/

OBSERVATION - Once the pretty boy of European politics, Macron has hit the wall. His popularity is low, due in part to the unregulated immigration of moslem third worlders who’ve turned large portions of France into a cesspool, as well as an economy in a world of hurt.

***
Czech election this past week saw a billionaire, ex-premier, and pro-Trump nationalist named Andrej Babiš roared back into the catbird seat, nearly wiping the floor with his campaign opponents.

The 71-year-old Babiš, head of the ANO (YES) Party and no stranger to the national stage, has pledged to work as a pro-Western, pro-European leader. Nonetheless, he has some positions that have Ursula von der Leyen and the Brussels Brahmins very skittish about this latest populist takeover.

For one thing, Andrej Babiš is considered too friendly with the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have proven to be obstinately opposed to European plans for Ukraine and Russia.

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/10/07/populists-retake-czech-government-headaches-ahead-for-cruella-de-von-der-leyen-n3807581

OBSERVATION - Another populist victory but one that is concerning in another way. Opposition to the EU leadership has allowed some degree of affinity to Russia to creep into national positions.

***
The Latvian Ministry of Defense has announced it is extending the nighttime airspace closure along its eastern border with Russia, stating that the restrictions would remain in effect nightly from October 8, between 8:00pm and 7:00am EEST, adding that they would remain in place “until further decisions are made” regarding coordination with other Baltic States and NATO Operation Eastern Sentry.

---

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Talks continue in Egypt, with representatives from Turkey, Qatar and the US in attendance

- Hamas increases its demands on Israel in exchange for hostage releases.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Interesting metric on how the fight in Gaza has gone -

On October 7, 2023, Hamas fired 4,300 rockets at Israel in a single day.
October 7, 2024: 14.
October 7, 2025: one.

***
The Israeli Navy has intercepted a new flotilla attempting to break the blockade of Gaza, and is escorting the ships and their passengers to an Israeli port.
The nine ships set sail from Italy with about 100 activists on board. The IDF says all passengers are safe and will be deported soon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Significant difficulties in talks in Sharm el-Sheikh. Hamas refuses the disarmament clause, demands a full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, and insists on agreeing on all the outline’s clauses before releasing the hostages. In fact, Hamas has not moved from its positions in previous rounds and does not accept the Trump outline.

There are disagreements within the organization, but currently the side with the tougher stance (the miiltary side) is prevailing. Israel is disappointed with Qatar and Turkey, who promised to bring Hamas’s agreement to the outline, and so far again have failed to deliver.

Hamas: “Lists of prisoners to be released were exchanged today according to the agreed-upon criteria and numbers”

Hamas is now demanding that Israel return the bodies of its slain leaders, Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar, as part of the Gaza negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Top US envoys and prominent regional figures (Turkey and Qatar) have joined the third day of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt on President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza.Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is also due to arrive on Wednesday afternoon.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Four Houthi drones fired from Yemen were intercepted over Eilat in southern Israel today, with no immediate reports of casualties.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish official: Director of Turkish Intelligence İbrahim Kalın will attend the ceasefire negotiations on Gaza tomorrow in Sharm El-Sheikh. The priority for Turkey is achieving a ceasefire, conducting a hostage/prisoner exchange & ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas playing the ‘yes, but’ negotiation tactic it has for the past years. The others are in a limited toleration mode. Should Hamas fail to make serious concessions, these talks will break down once again as in the past. The capitol they may have gotten from a recognition of a palestinian ‘state’ is fast running dry.

Meanwhile, Israel forces continue to prosecute the assault on Gaza City. Israel is set to continue the fight until Hamas agrees on the plan and starts the 72 hour clock.

Trump’s support for Israeli action to militarily remove Hamas still stands should Hamas refuse to the plan.

As negotiations have begun to fall apart, I don’t see any break thru coming any time soon.

---

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran is reportedly pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are probably driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn.

OBSERVATION - Reflects a degree of desperation on the part of the mullahs. If the economy continues to go down (it is already in a downturn, this would only accelerate it), the motivation for civil unrest will rise proportionately .

---

Syria -

More clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Al Qaeda-linked Syrian regime elements in Aleppo.

---

Turkey –

Erdogan: We will not allow a cycle of instability in Syria; We are closely monitoring all developments related to Syria; The SDF must fulfill its promise and fully integrate with the Syrian state; The territorial integrity of Syria is essential to us; Turkey will continue to stand by the Syrian people

OBSERVATION - That wont carry water as long as Turkish backed militias continue to attack the Kurds.

---

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

DOJ’s office of legal counsel has produced a classified legal opinion that justifies lethal strikes against a secret and expansive list of cartels and suspected drug traffickers—beyond just those designated as militants by Trump admin, sources say

The US reiterates that it has no diplomatic presence in Venezuela and avoids commenting on the alleged attack plot against its embassy.

---

Wonder if this is going to be pressed forward to other govt buildings