Heads up. I will not be able to post this coming Sunday thru Wed mornings as usual. Numerous other events that will be taking priority.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NYC - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Nov 30, 2025
Twin Cities region (Minneapolis and St Paul MN) Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Dec 3, 2025
CHANGES - Seattle and the SF Bay area dropped from watch, but things have the potential to flare up. Added the Twin Cities region.
***
Friday again brining the unrest forecast for the weekend. So far, nothing national is planned by the left. Announced protests continue to be the generic sign waving and shouting at various locations across the country. As usual, things can change based on current unforeseen events. Be alert
The most serious areas for violence is the developing ICE surge in the Twin Cities area. Open statements by Somali civic leaders (and other democrat officials) is that they are ready for violence and direct actions to disrupt and stop arrests and deportations. They are well studied on the tactics used in Chicago that achieved a degree of success. This is also a region that still has a lot of components of the 2020 riots still simmering and feeling confident enough to potential resume burning the cities down again.
From what is seems from the Fed side, recent revelations of the massive fraud Somali’s have committed, plus the incredible numbers of violent criminal acts by these placed ‘refugees’ seems to have crossed the line and Trump is more ready to cross swords if necessary. Court appeals to NG deployments are swinging his way and should things get nutz that option remains open.
If violence develops in the Twin cities area, it could stimulate similar acts of violence in other areas ICE enforcements are occurring.
All in all, keep alert
COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE
The Los Angeles County, CA Board of Supervisors voted 4-0 to ban face coverings for local, state, and federal law enforcement operating in Los Angeles County. The Board is required to vote on the ordinance again on 9 December, and the ban will take effect in January 2026.
***
According to a senior law enforcement official, the federal surge into Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN began yesterday. According to previous reports, the federal surge into Minneapolis and St. Paul will consist of 100 ICE agents and target Somali-nationals with final deportation orders.
OBSERVATION - Again, I expect significant resistance due to the Somali presence as well as BLM and Antifa elements the helped create the firestorm in 2020.
***
(FO) Far left collective CrimethInc released a guide for activists to resist ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) operations during federal surges. According to CrimethInc, the guide was compiled from tactics, techniques, and procedures used by Chicago, IL activists to resist Operation Midway Blitz.
This guide reportedly contains sophisticated operational planning guide which activists are adopting across the U.S., based on Chicago activists’ perception that they successfully disrupted Operation Midway Blitz and pushed the Trump administration out of Chicago. The guide includes communications planning, intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB), techniques for developing intelligence networks, digital tradecraft, and even site exploitation.
OBSERVATION - The rapid sophistication of the resistance shows the underlying nationwide network pulled together to fight deportations.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have arrested Afghan national Jaan Shah Safi, an alleged ISIS-K supporter brought into the country under former President Joe Biden’s Operation Allies Welcome, in Waynesboro, Virginia.
Safi was arrested as President Donald Trump and his administration confront a surge of terror cases tied to Afghan arrivals that occurred under the Biden administration.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Wednesday that Safi arrived in the U.S. on Sept. 8, 2021, in Philadelphia.
He applied for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), though his application was terminated when DHS Secretary Kristi Noem ended TPS for Afghans.
***
The pipe bomber investigation hit the news yesterday. After years of “no leads” and a pile of excuses, the FBI suddenly announced they’ve arrested a man named Brian Cole.
For starters he is a black man, being described as having anarchist leanings. Naturally, people are wondering if that means Antifa, but there’s no official word on that yet.
OBSERVATION - Reports are Cole was identified during there biden regime, but nothing further was done. The question WHY is answered by the fact that the democrat narrative was the individual was white and a white supremist. Something that the real identity would not support.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
CENTCOM standing up Drone strike forces in the middle east region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senate Democrats now have their plan to extend expiring Obamacare subsidies, but it’s unlikely that Senate Republicans will give it the green light.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., unveiled Democrats’ plan to prevent the subsidies from expiring by the end of this year on Thursday. Senate Democrats’ strategy, which mirrors the option on the table put forth by House Democrats, would extend the subsidies for three years with no tweaks or reforms.
“I’m announcing that Senate Democrats will introduce legislation for a clean, three-year extension of the current [Obamacare] tax credits,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “This is the bill, a clean, three-year extension of [Obamacare] tax credits that Democrats will bring to the floor of the Senate for a vote next Thursday. And every single Democrat will support it.”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schumer-unveils-democrats-obamacare-fix-plan-likely-dead-water
OBSERVATION - This does nothing to address the root problem of 0bamacare except, nothing the 3 year timeframe, causes the festering rot to reappear just in time for the next presidential election cycle.
Again, I ask where it the republican plan -they’ve had a decade to prepare it.
***
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration is planning to stop Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funding to Democrat-controlled states unless the states can provide detailed information on SNAP recipients. Rollins said the USDA will begin curtailing federal funds to states next week.
***
The left’s attack on the SecWar continues, though its case is weakening. They may try to continue the assault on the Sunday talk shows, but it is an issued that doesn’t appear to be gaining traction with the public. In fact, some poll numbers show something like 70% support.
Again, for the leftists burrowed into the military, they cannot viably have a military force for a coup with him in charge.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 137 attack drones including nearly 90 Shaheds from multiple directions. Ukraine’s air defenses, EW units, and mobile groups downed or jammed 80 of them. Still, 57 drones hit 13 locations across the country.
Ukraine launched a large drone attack overnight, striking targets in Crimea and other sites, including petroleum related facilities in Russia.
Russian losses per 05/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1240 men
+1 ACV
+34 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 aircraft (MiG-29)
***
Analysis and Future Operations —
The uptick in Russia losses continue as well as substantial numbers of artillery pieces taken out. Both indicate that Russia is losing the fog that had given them protection from the eyes of FPVs in recent weeks. Also indicates losses in other sectors seeing some increase in fighting.
Finally, contrary to what Russians are saying, Pokrovsk has not fallen. However, if Ukraine is going to save it in the long run, they must nip the pincers surrounding the town in a quick and fierce manner so as to restore logistical lines and bring relief. Ukraine had partial success on the northern pincer, but to succeed they need to launch a major counterattack in the region.
The clown circus of a ceasefire / peace agreement continues to spin down, with putin laughing at the goat rope talks in the west have devolved into.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, Gen. Grynkewich, said the continent can withstand a reduction in the 85,000 U.S. troops stationed there, citing strong European & Canadian capabilities. Comments come as U.S. shifts focus to Asia and Russia escalates hybrid threats
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Large airstrikes in Lebanon
- Talk of Phase 2 moves forward.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US President Donald Trump is preparing to announce before Christmas that the Gaza peace process will advance into its second phase, unveiling a new governance structure for the enclave, Axios reported on Thursday.
The move, according to two US officials and a Western source directly involved, comes as Washington seeks to consolidate what it views as the most significant foreign policy achievement of Trump’s second term.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet Trump in the US before month’s end to discuss the next stage. In a phone call Monday, Trump told Netanyahu he expects him to be a “better partner” on Gaza, the Axios report said.
The second phase envisions Israel withdrawing further from Gaza, the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF), and the establishment of a new governing structure led by the Trump-chaired Board of Peace. The UN Security Council has authorized both the ISF and the board. US officials say preparations are nearly complete, with rollout expected within weeks.
“All of the different elements are pretty well-advanced. It’s all moving ahead, and the aim is to announce it before people break for the holidays,” a Western source told Axios.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/418849
OBSERVATION - There will be no Phase 2 until Hamas is disarmed and out of power. I also don’t see the components of this plan coming together - again absent disarmament of Hamas.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Within weeks, the IDF will finish destroying all Hamas infrastructure above and below ground in the IDF-controlled areas of Gaza, reports N12 News, citing a security source.
Additionally, an estimated 50 terrorists remain in terror tunnels beneath Rafah. More than 44 terrorists who were hiding out there have been eliminated in the past month.
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1996667693106188519?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As been reported, Israel has methodically been reducing Hamas presence in the Yellow Zone. Numbers keep jumping around on just how many Hamas elements are trapped in tunnels in the Zone, but what is clear is that on a daily basis they are exiting the tunnels to either attack IDF forces or flee to Hamas controlled portions of Gaza. Both generally terminate the lives of the terrorists, with a few choosing to surrender instead.
I have strong doubts on Phase 2. It is hinged on disarmament of Hamas, an action that has been flat out rejected by the terrorists. One of two things will occur, this peacekeeping force will have to become a war fighting force to make Hamas disarm, or they will turn into another UNIFIL - like force that is totally useless except to get in the way of Israel doing the job.
On paper the plan looks wonderful. In reality the ugly presence of Hamas ruins it.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran begins a naval exercise, issuing a stern warning to American vessels in the area. The drill’s purpose: demonstrating deterrence capabilities and sending a “dual message” to the region
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Hezbollah Secretary General: America and Israel have no say in the decisions we make in Lebanon, nor in how we organize our internal affairs.
We cooperate with the Lebanese state and we stand with it so that it may continue on the diplomatic path it has chosen.
Hezbollah will not agree to disarm.
OBSERVATION - Hezbollah was allowed to reorganize and now they are in essence running the country again.
***
The Israeli Air Force on Thursday afternoon began conducting strikes on Hezbollah terrorist targets in Southern Lebanon. The attacks occurred about an hour after the IDF warned residents of two Lebanese towns to stay clear of Hezbollah infrastructure. “In the near future, the IDF will strike military infrastructure belonging to the Hezbollah terror organization across Southern Lebanon, in order to address Hezbollah’s prohibited attempts to rebuild,”
These targets were reported to be weapons storage facilities located in the heart of the civilian population. This is yet another example of Hezbollah’s cynical use of Lebanese civilians as human shields, and continued operations from within civilian areas.
***
UNIFIL: Yesterday’s Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon occurred in our area of operations. Israel and Lebanon must abide by the ceasefire agreement.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah targets and the targeting will be shifting to battlefield preparations the closer we get to the first of the year and the opening of the window for full on IDF attacks on Hezbollah.
The Lebanese govt is showing itself to be weak, which in arab terms sets Hezbollah as the leader. This is not going to end well, as Hezbollah will be facing an undistracted IDF with no significant combat in Gaza, Iran or against the Houthi to divert assets too.