Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Happy and blessed day of giving thanks to all out there.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Facial recognition technology is increasingly used in airports, police investigations and sports venues.
Now Amazon’s Ring says it’s putting facial recognition for the first time into its home security doorbells and video cameras. It’s intended to identify your sister, a neighbor or other people you know.

While the feature will be optional for Ring device owners, privacy advocates say it’s unfair that wherever the technology is in use, anyone within sight will have their faces scanned to determine who’s a friend or stranger.

The Ring feature is “invasive for anyone who walks within range of your Ring doorbell,” said Calli Schroeder, senior counsel at the consumer advocacy and policy group Electronic Privacy Information Center. “They are not consenting to this.”

https://archive.is/20251006225144/https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/10/03/amazon-ring-doorbell-facial-recognition-pricacy/#selection-417.0-451.240

OBSERVATION - Facial recognition has been growing for a long time now. I first encountered it of Fakebook when posting photos of family and friends well over 10 yrs ago. Then it sought to “allow” me to sort by individuals recognized by recognition at that time. Now, anyone who uses the video call feature of messenger helps refine their algorithm via the funny little face thingies that seek a face to turn into a frog or whatever.

Ring takes this to a new level. Recognized because it interfaces with the internet, law enforcement can tap into the images. Adding a facial recognition package (and I’ll bet there is one already operating in the background) only sets up normalization for a much more surveillance state mindset. Tracking your associates, time line, etc.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025

NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Over the course of the years here at Threat Matrix, numerous scenarios for CW2 have been laid out and considered. The increasing development of what is being called a Color Revolution is seemingly pulling many of these scenarios into a more cohesive and focused effort.

COLOR REVOLUTION -

You are going to see more and more of this phrase in the coming months and year. Key CW2 related news will be placed under the corresponding area of the Color scenario. How I’m going to do this will be a work in progress. For now I’ll add a identifies as to the Phase and pillar being attacked (further below)

*** Recommend you cut and paste this somewhere for future reference ***

To reiterate - what is ‘color’ revolution?

It is a subversive program to gradually overthrow a govt that has been used time and again in recent years. It increases pressures over three distinct phases, each designed to win the hearts of the masses in part by trying to get the govt to overreact as well as stripping away social / military support mechanisms of that govt - to make it illegitimate in the eyes of the population.
It is composed of three recognizable phases.

PHASE ONE:

-Form underground opposition networks.

-Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools.

-Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear.

-The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure.

Actions in this phase include the various “Indivisible” rallies, “No Kings” rally, etc. With this is the selection of a “color” as a kind of flag to rally around. Earlier this year activists came together and designated “Yellow” as the color. These efforts have their start in earnest following Trump’s election in 2024.

The last bullet item can be linked in ways to Antifa’s increase in attacking ICE operations, an opening to an eventual increase in attacks on other infrastructure.

PHASE TWO:

-Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media, strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage.

-Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met.

-Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network.

-Issue ultimatums to the government, threatening violent uprisings if demands are unmet. The goal is to either have the government acquiesce or engage in violent repression, in each case thereby delegitimizing itself.

The first bullet item is being met by the Sedition Six, on top of the daily media blast against ICE/BP/DHS, National Guard and other elements of the administration.

We have been operating in early stages of this phase for a while now, but is promising to increase over the course of the next year.

Indivisible - by far the lead activist origination of the revolution has called for increasing direct action and civil disobedience in the coming year. Unspoken, they may attempt to increase violent actions against the govt. All designed to put the administration in a bad light. A further catalyst to this action is the 2026 midterm elections where the left will be putting out a full court press to retake at least one if not both houses of congress.

Buckle up folks - it only goes downhill from here

PHASE THREE:

-Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent.

-Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols.

-Coordinate media messaging. If the government attacks, media will accuse the government of attacking “peaceful protestors.” If the government makes concessions, it will appear impotent because protestors will not compromise.

-Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed.

-The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.

We’ve already seen this action to a degree with the MSM providing extensive cover for the violent, progressive/socialist left. The growth of violent actions will likely trigger violent pushback from the right. 2020 conservatives largely kept their powder dry, looking to our vote to maintain balance. That has been stripped away and organized elements may rise up deepening on the size and location of violence. Any where from ‘Rooftop Korean” elements to other self defense militias.

Throughout the development of this revolution, six key elements will be targeted as noted above. They called the Six Pillars. The Six Pillars describe the underlying foundations that keep a government functioning.

- Business,
- Labor,
- Faith,
- Education,
- Civil Service, and
- Military/Police.

Again, we’ve seen elements of revolutionary left working in all of these. Now, there will be increasing coordination of effort and a lot of outside (Soros) money thrown at them.

Finally, there is another component of a color revolution, a metric called the 3.5% Rule. FO sums this up as follows -

“In her book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, researcher and strategist Erica Chenoweth claims that no regime has survived a resistance campaign that includes 3.5% of a country.
In other words, a study of over 300 violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns finds that every campaign that achieved the active and sustained participation of just 3.5% of the population succeeded in toppling a government.
So to put this into perspective: the anti-Trump resistance needs 3.5% of the United States, or roughly 12 million people, to participate. In two national days of protests, we’ve seen mobilizations of around three million protesters, or roughly 25% of what’s needed to achieve the 3.5% Rule.”

For the first time, I’m actually seeing the frame work for CW2 evolve in a more definitive manner before my eyes. 2026 looks to be the year of destiny.

***

A left-wing group is putting up billboards in high-crime cities where President Donald Trump deployed the National Guard, telling military service members that is not what they “signed up for” and encouraging them to refuse “unlawful orders.”

Win Without War, a self-described “diverse network of activists and national organizations working for progressive foreign policy,” launched its billboard campaign in September in Washington, DC, before expanding to Chicago, Memphis, and the military bases Ft. Bragg and Camp Lejeune in North Carolina.

Social media users drew similarities from the billboards to the recent video made by Democrat senators and representatives telling service members to “refuse illegal orders” from the Trump administration.

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2025/11/26/billboards-urging-national-guardsmen-to-refuse-orders-from-trump-admin-sprout-up-around-country/

OBSERVATION - PHASE 2, Military / Police
The left is hitting this hard to reach those pre-Trump military members. Recruiting has reached all time high - due to support and confidence in Trump. These billboards only confirm their enlistments.
(FO) The theme around “illegal orders” is emerging in Trump Resistance narratives. This includes what appear to be psychological operations directed at military and civilian personnel intended to undermine the capacity of the Trump administration, both in domestic immigration enforcement and foreign policy.

***
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek has put Trump and the federal government “on notice” and vows to go after federal officers who “break the law.”

OBSERVATION - PHASE 2, Military / Police, Kotek will cross the line into federal supremacy clause should she be stupid enough to try this.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

A lot overnight, trying to sort this all out -

Two National Guard soldiers were shot near the White House and latest I’ve seen are in critical condition. A female guardsman was reportedly shot in the head. A third guardsman may have also been injured as he attacked the shooter with a knife. The shooter was also shot (by a fourth soldier) and was apprehended. The FBI has taken charge of the investigation as a potential terrorism incident.

The shooter has been identified as 29-year-old Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal. Lakanwal, 29, arrived in the United States in September 2021, one month after the Afghanistan withdrawal conducted under the Biden-Harris administration.

He entered the country through “Operation Allies Welcome,” the program created to bring Afghan nationals to the U.S. following the evacuation.

Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar.

Lakanwal visa expired and stayed here illegally.

Lakanwal was allegedly lying in wait before he rounded the corner near the Farragut West Metro Station in Northwest DC around 2:15 p.m., then opened fire, striking a female guard in the chest before shooting her in the head, according to law enforcement sources.

He reportedly yelled “Allahu Akbar” during the attack.

FURTHER CONTEXT

The shooting occurred in the context of Democrats and leftists saying that the National Guard troops are following “illegal orders” to be “Trump’s Gestapo.”

Don Lemon told illegal aliens to buy guns and “fight back” against federal officers, then two National Guard troops were shot near the White House. His rhetoric is dangerous and reckless.

Former CNN host Don Lemon urged “black and brown people here illegally” to arm themselves against federal officers, instructing followers to “take up weapons” and resist enforcement. His comments preceded the shooting of two National Guard troops near the White House, fueling outrage that media figures are stoking violence against U.S. forces. Lemon’s invocation of the Second Amendment to justify armed resistance by illegal aliens is historically false and legally dangerous. Critics say federal authorities must act before more troops are targeted.

Senator Slotkin just a few days ago claiming the National Guard was about to start shooting at American civilians.

Antifa and leftists on Bluesky are celebrating the ambush shooting of the National Guard troops near the White House. They repeat the false claim being popularized by leftists that those troops are following illegal orders from the President.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1993807754625175858?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

FLASHBACK: Email obtained by Sen Hawley shows the Biden admin ordered them to fill up planes with Afghan “refugees” even without vetting them.

OBSERVATION - A lot to swallow, but my first cut is that this is probably a lone wolf attack. The only doubt in my mind comes into play with the gunman’s history working with the CIA, illegal status (visa expired), coming all the way from Washington State and the deliberate ambush. Plus, where did he get a gun. Those areas of doubt could be indicators that he was linked to a larger operation.

Whether or not the FBI is open to publication of any links to a larger conspiracy is questionable, and we may not know.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Americans filed 216,000 new applications for unemployment benefits last week, down 6,000 from the prior week and marking the lowest level since mid-April, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The decline defied economists’ expectations for claims to rise to 225,000 and suggests companies remain reluctant to cut workers despite mounting economic headwinds and a string of high-profile layoff announcements.

The data paint a picture of a labor market in transition: Employers are pulling back sharply on hiring but haven’t yet resorted to widespread workforce reductions. Companies including HP, ConocoPhillips, General Motors, Paramount, Target, UPS, Verizon, and Amazon have announced plans to eliminate positions in recent weeks, though those cuts haven’t shown up meaningfully in unemployment statistics.

The weekly claims figures can be volatile around holidays, and on an unadjusted basis, new applications jumped last week ahead of Thanksgiving. The four-week moving average, which smooths out such fluctuations, declined to 223,750.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/11/26/job-claims-fall-to-seven-month-low-as-employers-hold-the-line-on-layoffs/

OBSERVATION - The Fed will be digesting these numbers as they are a growing component in any rate decrease calculation.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

In the aftermath of Wednesday’s shooting of two National Guard troops near the White House, War Secretary Pete Hegseth said President Donald Trump has requested the deployment of another 500 Guard members to the nation’s capital.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sedition Six pushback continues and even some elements of the MSM are questioning the purpose of the video. Majority of the MSM, however, is still painting them as the victims. With the attack on NG, their actions may come under greater scrutiny .

TRUMP Watch –

A judge grants the motion to dismiss the indictment against Trump in the Georgia election interference case

OBSERVATION - This makes 3 out of the 4 big cases against Trump either being overturned or tossed out. The only remaining case is the kangaroo court verdict in his alleged loan fraud. That will soon be overturned as well.

Illegal Immigration –

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has announced that it is immediately suspending all immigration requests related to Afghan nationals, following today’s targeted attack by an Afghani against members of the National Guard in Washington, D.C.

A 100% review of aliens let in by biden under similar amnesty programs - under the claims of being extensively ‘vetted’ is reportedly soon to be underway. This action was announced before the shooting of the NG troops in DC.

***
(FO) ICE is planning to expand a proposed “bounty hunter” program which will allow private contractors to track down, surveil, and serve legal documents to illegal aliens. According to government records, ICE removed a $180 million total spending cap on the program and increased possible contractor payments up to $280 million.

Japan –

Unconfirmed reports that Trump contacted the new PM of Japan and told her to tone the rhetoric towards China down following a call from China.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko accused the EU is preparing for a direct military confrontation with Russia

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another night, another drone attack, with Russia launching 142 strike UAVs from multiple directions, including over 90 Shaheds. Air defenses, EW units, and mobile fire teams downed or suppressed 92 drones across the north, south, and east. Strikes were recorded in 18 locations.

Russian losses per 27/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+1 tanks
+3 ACVs
+21 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+2 aircraft (Taganrog)

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vasiukiuvka village in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

ISW.
Russian forces have been prioritizing completing the seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but have been slow to do so as Ukrainian forces have successfully stymied the rate of Russian advance in Pokrovsk to footpace. Russian forces entered Pokrovsk for the first time by July 31, and Russian forces have advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day in Pokrovsk from July 31 to November 26. Russian forces have not seized Pokrovsk — a town of 11.5 square miles — despite operating within the town for over 118 days. ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have consolidated advances in 66 percent of Pokrovsk as of November 26, a low percentage given the time and manpower (elements of at least two combined arms armies) Russia has dedicated to pursuing this effort.

OBSERVATION - Accepting this report as is since it reflects other OSINT on the subject. Many questions unanswered because the large effort (2 CAAs). Did / are Russian running out of reserve forces to seal the deal as I’ve said.
118 days in the town, nearly 2 years as a priority objective.

One thought, the sudden slow down in recent operations may reflect loss of fog cover, allowing Ukraine’ s FPVs to regain an upper hand.

Analysis and Future Operations —

ISW notes that the Russian rate of advance across the theater intensified since the Alaska summit on August 15, with Russian forces advancing an average of 9.3 square kilometers per day across the entire theater, between August 15 and November 20, but these advances are still constrained to footpace. Russian forces could seize the remainder of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast by August 2027, assuming a constant Russian rate of advance.

Other OSINT elements suggest that year to date Russia has only succeeded in capturing 1% more Ukrainian territory. They started out holding about 23%.

The increase is probably what Russia has put together for its Winter Offensive. A thought as to why Russian is spreading its attacks all across the front rather than identifying a good avenue of attack and focusing a much more massive assault along that axis - to shatter the Ukraine defenses at that point and potentially accelerate territorial seizure. Only the kremlin knows.

Continued don’t hold your breath for any ceasefire/peace agreement any time soon.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Air strikes in Lebanon

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Continued small numbers of Hamas trying to escape from their tunnels are being intercepted by Israel and either killed for forced to surrender.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

On-going anti-terror sweeps

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to lay siege to the Hamas elements hunkered down within the Yellow Zone. Time is not on the side of these Hamas elements.

Increasing focus on Israel going after Hezbollah in a big way - see Lebanon below.

Iraq -

Major drone strike by unknown forces on the Khor Mor Oil and Gas Field in the Iraqi Kurdistan. The immediate suspect: the pro-Iranian Shia militias in Iraq.

OBSERVATION - Could also be Turkish, since it impacts Kurdish territory.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Israeli airstrikes targeted the outskirts of Mahmoudiya, Al-Jurmuq, Al-Aysha, the heights of the Al-Tuffah region, Jabal Al-Rihan, and the Al-Tasa spring. IDF targeted Hezbollah terror infrastructure in several areas in southern Lebanon.

As part of the strikes, the IDF struck several launch sites where Hezbollah weapons were stored.

Additionally, the IDF struck a storage facility that contained weapons, military posts that were used by Hezbollah terrorists to advance terror attacks against IDF troops, as well as additional terror infrastructure sites.

***
IDF Spox: “One year ago today, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect.

Under that agreement, Hezbollah was supposed to fully disarm and dismantle its terror and military infrastructure. They did neither.
Instead, Hezbollah has spent the year rebuilding and rearming with the backing of the Iranian regime.

As long as Hezbollah poses a threat to Israel, we will continue to do whatever is necessary to defend ourselves.”

***
Lebanon’s Al Akhbar, closely aligned with Hezbollah, reports that Egypt’s foreign minister arrived in Beirut with a blunt message. He pressed Lebanese leaders on full disarmament south of the Litani, the start of disarmament north of it, a halt to all hostile activity against Israel, and a push to move into direct talks with Israel in Cairo under Saudi and American oversight.

He also delivered a stark warning. According to the paper, he told senior officials that an Israeli escalation before year’s end is all but certain and that “there are no limits to what Israel might do.” He repeated the same alert to Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Salam, stressing that Lebanon could face a sudden and rapid deterioration.

Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar dismissed the pressure outright, insisting the group’s arsenal will stay in place “as long as the Israeli enemy occupies land” and refuses to comply with international resolutions or the latest understandings tied to the war in Lebanon.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1994008317169938574?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Key note, the reported Egyptian warning echos an earlier one by the US, indicating that unless Lebanon gets more aggressive in disarming Hezbollah, Israel will be unleashed. I’ve noted that the window for the start of a substantial Israeli campaign opens in December - based on Trump’s warning. Israeli attack tempo has already picked up over the past few weeks, but not at the level it could.

Some speculate the Israel’s eventual attack on Hezbollah will be much larger than from the war a year ago. This is reasonable given that at that time Israel was dividing resources between Hamas and Iran. Now Israel can focus a lot of aircraft on Hezbollah targets, with an enhanced list being updated by Mossad as we speak. The fact that the US warnings appear to give Israel the green light to even hit targets in Beirut means things will get very ugly for Hezbollah. No signs of Israel moving on the ground further into S Lebanon at this time. Will likely require activation of some reserve units, giving us a couple weeks warning, but not ruled out entirely. An IAF campaign to shape the battlefield for ground forces would naturally precede ground movements.

Hope everyone had a restful and thankful day yesterday.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott, ongoing

***
Weekend Forecast - Leftists moving forward on their “Mass Blackout”, there are no components I’ve seen that indicate attempts to physically block stores.
Other weekly sign waving and shouting events scheduled across the country. Low potential for violence unless local conditions change. Continued Antifa and related protests / low grade riots at ICE facilities noted above as well as any other developing active areas surges are occurring.

As alway, unforeseen events could trigger the leftists to surge in response. Keep abreast of local news.

COLOR REVOLUTION -

Keeping this edited version up for another day.

*** Recommend you cut and paste this somewhere for future reference ***

To reiterate - what is ‘color’ revolution?

PHASE ONE:

-Form underground opposition networks.

-Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools.

-Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear.

-The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure.

PHASE TWO:

-Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media, strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage.

-Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met.

-Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network.

PHASE THREE:

-Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent.

-Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols.

-Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed.

-The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.

- Business,
- Labor,
- Faith,
- Education,
- Civil Service, and
- Military/Police.

Finally, there is another component of a color revolution, a metric called the 3.5% Rule. FO sums this up as follows -
In her book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, researcher and strategist Erica Chenoweth claims that no regime has survived a resistance campaign that includes 3.5% of a country.
In other words, a study of over 300 violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns finds that every campaign that achieved the active and sustained participation of just 3.5% of the population succeeded in toppling a government.
So to put this into perspective: the anti-Trump resistance needs 3.5% of the United States, or roughly 12 million people, to participate. In two national days of protests, we’ve seen mobilizations of around three million protesters, or roughly 25% of what’s needed to achieve the 3.5% Rule.

***
Connecting some key dots -

(PHASE 1/2, Military/Police) On November 11th - just days before the video - the National Lawyers Guild published a page urging service members to refuse “illegal” orders.

This page contained the same talking point in the Sedition Six video. Shows coordination by other groups with the Seditious Six. Sen Gallagos’ statement that he got his ‘script’ too late to join the video is further confirmation that this was not a spontaneous act, but one deliberately designed and set up.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

National Guardswoman Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, has died from injuries she suffered after being shot in an ambush-style attack near the White House in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday afternoon. President Donald Trump made the announcement Thursday evening before he made calls to the U.S. military on Thanksgiving. The other National Guardsman is in critical condition and “fighting for his life,” the president added.

Beckstrom had volunteered to work over Thanksgiving so other troops could be with their families for the holiday.

More word that the third guardsman that came to their rescue used a personal pocket knife to engage the attacker until a fourth armed soldier arrived and subdued the shooter.

***
More background on the shooter - Rahmanullah Lakanwal, is coming out. Some has already been reported but repeated here to tie some loose ends.

- In Afghanistan, he worked with a CIA and U.S. Special Forces (SOF) at an outpost in Kandahar

- Lakanwal was let into the U.S. in 2021 under Joe Biden’s administration, following Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Now get ready for this latest, strongly suggesting connections here in the US to the CIA and deep staters that strongly suggest his actions were not his own, but manipulated. Venturing up to the edge of the tinfoil zone, but so far these claims have been holding up

- The Soros-linked NGO “World Relief” funded the settlement of National Guard shooter Rahmanullah Lakanwal in Washington State, from Afghanistan. World Relief has received US TAXPAYER DOLLARS through USAID. This same NGO has worked with pro-migration and open borders groups in recent years that are heavily backed by Soros as well. 75% percent of the organization’s income came from government grants, primarily through USAID. (You think DOGE may have hit a raw nerve?)

World Relief also has been attempting to change how Evangelical Christians think about the subject. World Relief worked with the National Immigration Forum and Baptist Press to promote open borders. (Color PHASE 1/2, Religion)

- Valerie and Stanley Creighton, the rich white liberals in Bellingham, Washington allowed Lakanwal to live inside their home as they raised money for him and his family, are Democrat donors.
They have since deleted the GoFund Me page they created for their jihadist guest. Also have cleaned their other social media accounts to remove association to Lakanwal. You can bet they have associations with other deep state funders.

- Lakanwal, reportedly worked for the International Rescue Committee while in the US.

***What is the International Rescue Committee?***

A deep dive into the International Rescue Committee indicates it is a CIA front. I’ve gone down the link below and the claims and documentation seem pretty firm and it has support from other sources I’m comfortable with. It expands on it pretty well,. Again, recommend you read the link.

https://x.com/datarepublican/status/1994118842239610989?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Bottom line - International Rescue Committee is a CIA cover for transporting their CIA trained assets out of a country they’ve overthrown and is now being taken back by another force or its citizens.

Thus direct evidence of CIA involvement and influence. Why else would he drive all the way across the country (he could have shot NG in Seattle or Portland) to shoot NG in DC.

Folks, this could be a run down a rabbit hole, but at this stage i don’t think so. This information has pushed my thoughts of categorizing this under CW2 as PHASE 1/2, Military/Police and Civil Service.

It is no longer a Lone Wolf attack.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Today is the official Black Friday - named so because in the past, today’s sales would put businesses “in the black” for the year.

Traditionally, it has also been used as a gauge to measure how the economy is doing. It has been made harder recently because of all the pre-Black Friday sales and Cyber Monday impacts. Economists are leaning towards a good day and overall holiday sales, suggesting some improvement to the economy.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Very hard push back coming from the right as the marxist democrats have been attempting to put the blame for the death of a NG soldier and critical wounding of another onto Trump in one way or another. Key point coming out from the right is if NG in uniform are not safe in DC - heaven help the poor residents.

TRUMP Watch –

After announcing the death of Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, Trump reiterated the total cessation of any immigrants coming from third world problem countries and a full green card review of those allowed in by biden.

Illegal Immigration –

TPS has been removed for Haitians and those here are now being reviewed for removal unless they self deport.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin says Russia will halt hostilities if Ukraine pulls out from territories Moscow claims, otherwise, they’ll take them by force. He also whined that he didn’t expect new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil firms, claiming there were “no conflicts” with Washington after the Alaska summit. “I don’t even understand what’s happening,” he said.

OBSERVATION - putin doubles down on his maxamilist demands. These peace talks are going nowhere.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 72 strike drones and one Iskander-M ballistic missile at Ukraine. Around 50 were Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses, jets, SAMs, EW units, and mobile teams, downed or suppressed 63 UAVs across the north, south, and east. The missile and 9 drones hit five locations. Debris fell in another.

Russian losses per 28/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1100 men
+7 tanks
+15 ACVs
+21 artillery

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed strikes at Saratov oil refinery and UAV storage site at Saky airfield, as well as other military facilities

Last night, 500 kV substation “Shakhty” in the hamlet of Kireevka (Oktyabrsky District, Rostov region) was struck. This substation supplies major power flows across southern Russia,

Analysis and Future Operations —

Ukraine’s drone war maintains successes in the face of much larger, daily strikes from Russia. I will note that we hear less of some of the area Russia has hit due to OPSEC considerations, but news on massive hits on other targets like apartment buildings and shopping centers indicate Russia is still indiscriminately targeting Ukraine in many ways.

Rumbles and rumors of US / European counter offers for a ceasefire and peace keep bouncing around - much to putin’s joy. Nothing is going to come from all of this - just retracing steps of previous failures. Until Russia is facing a sever pinch, there is no incentive for Moscow to treat any of these proposals seriously - and maintain their maximalist demands of essential Ukrainian unconditional surrender

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas element in the Yellow Zone may have been eliminated.

- IDF raid into S Syria

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Unconfirmed reports that indications are emerging in Israel that the last remaining terrorists in the Rafah tunnels have been eliminated overnight.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli army is sending military reinforcements towards Tubas in the northern West Bank.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

Turkey is still hopeful that Israel will allow its troops to participate in the International Stabilization Force’s implementation in Gaza, KAN News reported on Thursday, citing an Arab diplomat from a nation involved in the mediation of the ongoing Israel-Gaza ceasefire.

The diplomat said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is counting on “continued hesitation by other countries to send troops” and expects the United States to eventually press Israel to accept Turkish involvement.

OBSERVATION - Not. . . . Gonna . . . . Happen

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel’s siege of the Hamas terrorists holed up in Yellow Zone Rafah tunnels has apparently been successful at little cost to the IDF. With these forces neutralized, IDF can more aggressively push into these pockets and eliminate the tunnel / bunker complexes after intel has had a chance to exploit any finds.

IDF raid into S Syria puts terror elements on notice that they will be hit and hurt.

See Lebanon for refined countdown for resumption of large scale attacks on Hezbollah.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

The US has reportedly given Lebanon until Dec. 31 to disarm Hezbollah, or accept responsibility for what follows.

OBSERVATION - This appears to be an extension of a month from a previous deadline. It also coincides on a promise by the Lebanese govt to have disarmament accomplished by.

This suggests that the window of opportunity for large scale Israeli strikes on Hezbollah is now moved into Jan 2026. History of the war over the past year has shown that once Washington’s deadlines have passed, Israel has quickly acted to attack targets. I don’t see any change to this pattern. The US continues to indicate that it is supportive of a large scale effort against Hezbollah.

Syria -

IDF troops arrested two brothers in Beit Jan, southern Syria, around 3 a.m., suspecting them of planting bombs and firing at Israeli forces.

As the soldiers left with the detainees, terrorists opened fire from about 200 meters, wounding six reservists in a nearby vehicle.

The IDF returned fire, killing several attackers, and called in an Air Force strike to secure the area. The suspects were taken to Israel for interrogation, and the wounded troops were evacuated to Rambam and Sheba hospitals.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

President Trump says US land action against alleged drug trafficking networks in Venezuela will start “very soon”.

OBSERVATION - “SOON” is a relative term and in this context more to drive PSYOPS against Madero than anything else. I have no doubt strikes on land targets is planned. Proclamations like this also loosen up narco-terror communications for exploitation and targeting at a later time.

Misc of Note –

Couple of a quick points I’ve should have mentioned much earlier.

1. Winter is here and if you are driving to destinations, make sure you have a minimum amount of emergency supplies in your vehicle should you get stuck on the highway - blanket, food, water etc. There are an abundance of internet based resources available to check road and weather conditions - use them

2. Holiday safety - There is always an increase in parking lot theft this season as criminals scope out potential targets to steal their purchases and money.

- Be alert! Have your keys ready before you leave the store so you aren’t focusing on getting them out at your vehicle - and ignorant of robbers approaching you.

- Park in well lit areas. Darkness is the friend of criminals

- Be armed if possible, at least have pepper spray handy, like attached to the key ring you got out before leaving the store.

- Scan the parking area - do you see suspicious people just hanging around.

- Some stores / malls have offered in the past an escort service to your car. Check

- Remember, noise and disruption is something robbers don’t want. Brings attention to their actions. Hit the HORN key on your key fob, setting off the alarm

- Try not to shop alone but go with a spouse or friend

- Last but not least, IMMEDIATELY lock your doors after entering your vehicle. Criminals may not reach you as you load, but may try to open the door to force the robbery or even car theft. If threatened, drive over the robbers.

Sorry for the paranoia the above may generate, but every year these thefts get worse and worse.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott. Ongoing

***
Weekend Forecast - Leftists moving forward on their “Mass Blackout”, there are no components of violence expected to he associated with it.
There have been reports of local attempts to physically block stores.
Other weekly sign waving and shouting events scheduled across the country. Low potential for violence unless local conditions change. Continued Antifa and related protests / low grade riots at ICE facilities noted above as well as any other developing active areas surges are occurring.

As alway, unforeseen events could trigger the leftists to surge in response. Keep abreast of local news.

***

COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE

(PHASE 1/2, Civil and Miitary/police) Judge Boasberg gives Trump admin one week to file affidavits from all officials involved in decision to carry out Alien Enemies Act deportation to El Salvador despite Boasberg’s order to turn the planes around. ‘Contempt prosecution’ could follow

OBSERVATION - Boasberg has resumed his assault on Executive powers. Appeals and USSC has already ruled he has zero jurisdiction over immigration policies and that the deportations were allowable. He has become the Sen Kelly ‘FACE’ to the growing color revolution in the judiciary branch.

***

Mosab Hassan Yousef has seen how terrorist movements build from the inside, as he grew up the son of one of Hamas’s co-founders. Now he’s warning that jihadis are putting the same destructive game plan that turned Gaza into an Islamic terrorist cesspool into action in the United States.

Yousef began, “From the inside, it looks innocent — just kids at summer camps, families at mosques, neighbors sharing meals. But growing up in the West Bank, I saw only what few did: my father, Sheikh Hassan Yousef, wasn’t just a community leader. He was one of the architects of the Muslim Brotherhood’s project in the territories — a project that would birth Hamas. I was there in our living room when Sheikh Ahmad Yassin came from Gaza to plan with him. Not bombs. Not yet. Just schools, charities, mosques, research institutions. Building trust. Indoctrinating a generation. Waiting.”

https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2025/11/28/muslims-are-using-gaza-tactics-in-us-warns-hamas-co-founders-son-n4946445

OBSERVATION - Radical Islam as a factor in any CW2 scenario can operate out side of the current Color Revolution developing by the left. Opportunistic, in many instances it partners up with Antifa, democrat socialists, et al. But as Yousef continually notes, Islam sees itself as the ultimate ruler over socialists and other leftists - they are just pawns, useful idiots.
Of particular note is the concept of concentration of islamic imigration - setting up power bases that can progressively move outward and multiply to force islamic law and submission bit by bit. Dearborn MI case in point. Other sites in Texas, Illinois, NY etc are growing as well.
How islam will play in the Color Revolution perhaps as the violent sector? Haven’t fit this piece of the jigsaw puzzle yet. But on its own, its growing into its own serious threat.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

A Virginia high school principal and his brother were arrested for allegedly planning to carry out a heinous attack involving firearms and explosives to kill US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Wednesday.

John Wilson Bennett, and his brother Mark Booth Bennett, have each been charged with conspiracy to commit malicious wounding. According to DHS, the pair was overheard by Virginia state police officers on November 17 discussing alleged plans to “kill police officers and ICE agents.” Additionally, Mark was allegedly overheard stating his intention to meet with like-minded individuals in Las Vegas, Nevada, to purchase firearms with explosive rounds to carry out the killings, according to the press release.

https://thepostmillennial.com/virginia-high-school-assistant-principal-and-brother-arrested-for-alleged-plot-to-kill-ice-agents#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - In some ways parallel Color Revolution goals by stoking violence. This is the fruit of the constant propaganda spewed by congressional and other leaders on the left and amplified by the MSM.

***
Rahmanullah Lakanwal - continuing

“Working with the United States Attorney’s offices here at the Department of Justice and prosecutors across the country, we were able to serve search warrants literally overnight and through the night,” FBI Director Kath Patel said Thursday morning.

He added:
We were able to hit the house in Washington State. During that process, we seized numerous electronic devices, to include cell phones, laptops, iPads and other material that is being analyzed as we speak. Pursuant to that investigation and any known associates of the subject and of that house is how we ended up in San Diego, where interviews were conducted and are going to be continued to be conducted.
“We will go anywhere in the country or the world where the evidence leads us,” Patel said, adding:

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/11/27/kash-patel-fbi-seized-evidence-at-afghan-gunmans-house/

There are unconfirmed reports that the FBI found pro-Taliban propaganda and “jihad against American soldiers” searches on his devices

OBSERVATION - Components of a lone wolf, nested in receiving radicalization and a push to target NG. Again, why drive across the country when deployed NG are in Oregon and Washington state?

Meanwhile, contrary to the evidence so far, the MSM is trying to portray him as a poor immigrant with little to his name. Right

Also being remembered are the attacks on US forces that these afghan “allies” perpetuated, informing Taliban of operations and security.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Black Friday numbers being crunched and we won’t likely see any initial figures until Monday at the earliest.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Suddenly, democrats have the orders for all Epstine files to be released and suddenly there is silence from the left.

More fallout from the Seditious Six and documented linkage to a wider, subversive plan - See CW2 in recent posts on Color Revolution.

With the death of the Specialist, will the MSM continue to try to blame Trump and the presence of NG in DC for the death, or will they try to let that spin down?

TRUMP Watch –

Trump announced the termination of all presidential orders signed by Biden using the “automatic pen,” which are actually most of the orders and documents approved during the previous administration

Among those autopen orders is the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson

OBSERVATION - Rumbling for the past several months, the volcano is entering the eruption phase with guaranteed titanic court fights. I read somewhere that this could affect upwards of 80% of biden’s actions. Needs clear documentation that these ‘signatures’ were done without biden’s authorization - documents released over the summer indicate this being case.

Illegal Immigration –

The Trump administration is working toward cutting illegal migrants off from federal tax benefits and money transfer services, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday.

“At [President Trump’s] direction, we are working to cut off federal benefits to illegal aliens and preserve them for U.S. citizens,” Bessent wrote on X.

As part of the effort, the Treasury Department will propose new regulations “clarifying that the refunded portions of certain individual income tax benefits are no longer available to illegal and other non-qualified aliens, covering the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Additional Child Tax Credit, the American Opportunity Tax Credit, and the Saver’s Match Credit,” according to the the Trump administration official.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/28/us-news/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-moves-to-cut-off-illegal-migrants-from-tax-benefits-and-cross-border-money-transfers/

OBSERVATION - Financial incentives is one of the strongest motivators of the recent flood of illegals. They’ve been able to suck billions of dollars out of the federal budget as well as the economy in general. You take away the money and incentives, you take away the ability to sponge off the system. Coupled with deportations and arrests, this will encourage many to self deport.

***
Customs and Border Protection forces have left Chicago, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is still taking criminal illegals off the streets of the Windy City.

ICE noted that it has not put a halt to its mission of arresting dangerous criminal illegals “despite resistance from activists and sanctuary politicians like Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson,” the agency said in a press release.

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/11/27/ice-continues-to-arrest-violent-illegal-migrants-in-chicago/

(FO) Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) said she was informed that ICE is planning to triple its staffing levels at the Broadview, IL ICE facility by January 2026 ahead of a second surge. Underwood said ICE is also planning to expand its office space in the city.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia does not recognize the US-proposed peace plan as a serious agreement and indicated that Russia is not interested in ending the war on the Trump administration’s desired rapid timeline.

Putin reiterated that Russia cannot sign any peace or other agreements with the current or future Ukrainian government and reiterated accusations that any Ukrainian government not under the Kremlin’s control is illegitimate, another clear rejection of the US peace proposal.

Putin demanded Ukraine’s withdrawal from unoccupied parts of illegally annexed Ukrainian regions as a precondition for a ceasefire, not a peace deal. Such a concession would force Ukraine to withdraw to lines that are indefensible against renewed Russian aggression and would consign millions of Ukrainians to life under Russian occupation, therefore failing to guarantee a lasting peace.

Putin also demanded that the international community recognize Russia’s territorial conquests in Ukraine, likely to set legal grounds to justify a reinvasion of Ukraine at the opportune time.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994656800965075050?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Lucy/football

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv. Cruise and ballistic missiles, including Kalibrs and possible Kinzhal, struck residential areas and energy infrastructure. Explosions hit Nivky, Solomianskyi, and nearby Vyshneve. A child was injured, and western Kyiv is without power

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight combined missile and drone attack.

Shot down:
558/596 Shahed and other type drones
1/5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
12/23 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles
4/4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
2/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

The Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, was attacked by Ukraine last night. The facility, frequently used in Russia’s military supply chain, has been targeted multiple times throughout the war.

An energy facility in Kazan, southwestern Russia, was reportedly hit in a Ukrainian strike last night. A substation exploded, causing a blackout across parts of the city.

Russian losses per 29/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+910 men
+1 tank
+15 ACVs
+3 artillery

ISW. The frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse despite recent Russian gains and Kremlin assertions.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994656800965075050?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Russian Territory –

Two Russian oil tankers were attacked and set on fire in the Black Sea. Ukrainian forces used Sea Baby naval drones in the attack. Both tankers are on the sanctions listing and are part of the “shadow” fleet.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Though Ukraine has been successfully hitting Russian targets over the past months, Russia by shear volume continues to smash into Ukraine. The latest being one of the largest in the past couple months. Targets being power/heat, unspecified military and civilian (terror).

Eyes continue to be primarily on Pokrovsk, but Russian forces appear to be stalled sealing the deal. OSINT I’ve seen roughly suggests that Russia is attempting to penetrate deeper on the north and south to better interdict Ukraine supplies to the city, rather that continue frontal assaults (which may resume if they are successful in cutting off resupply).

Poland –

Eastern Polish airspace shut down over night as NATO aircraft scrambled to meet any threats posed by Russia’s drone and cruise missile raid on Ukraine. There have been reports that a number of Russian drone penetrated into Polish airspace.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Remarkably mostly on the quiet side. Some action in Lebanon and some strikes in Gaza, but nothing substantially noteworthy.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Actions pretty much constant with spikes in activity . The big future event is resumption of intense air strikes and likely ground active in S Lebanon. It is highly unlikely IMHO Lebanon will do much more against Hezbollah, so Israel will be free soon to resume taking it apart. More under Lebanon.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Petrol is going to become more expensive for many motorists in Iran, as from December 6 they will have to pay higher prices at gas stations if they use more than 160 liters a month.

The fossil fuel is heavily subsidized in Iran, where gasoline offered to consumers is the cheapest globally. The Middle Eastern country also has the fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-biggest natural gas reserves in the world.

In recent decades, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has massively expanded its economic influence and become closely intertwined with the country’s oil and gas industry.
“As long as these problems remain unresolved, the state will shift the burden onto the population without implementing any far-reaching reforms,” Jamshid Assadi, an expert on the Iranian economy warned.

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-gasoline-price-hike-risks-more-public-unrest/a-74936945?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

OBSERVATION - The last time Iran jacked gasoline prices up, riots broke out in parts of the country. Now with drought and persistent power outages / shortages while the regime pushes to rebuild its military and nuclear programs, the masses may be poked into another round of protests.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Hezbollah threatens Israel that it will retaliate for the taking out of its #2 leader at a time and place of its choosing.

Central / South America General-

Peru will declare a state of emergency along its border with Chile, President José Jerí said on Friday, as migrants seek to cross into the country following a Chilean presidential frontrunner’s vow to expel undocumented migrants.

Honduras is set to have national elections tomorrow. Trend is leaning towards hand picked leftist candidates with a heaping dose of fraud.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott. Ongoing

***
Weekend Forecast - “Mass Blackout” continues. Several potential protest related reports of local attempts to physically block stores.
Other weekly sign waving and shouting events scheduled across the country. Low potential for violence unless local conditions change.

Continued Antifa and related protests / low grade riots at ICE facilities noted above as well as any other developing active areas surges are occurring.

As alway, unforeseen events could trigger the leftists to surge in response. Keep abreast of local news.

***
NYC (Nov. 29) — Open border extremists rioted in the street to try to shut down and block immigration officials. Rioters used Antifa style tactics to tear up private property to construct barricades to prevent ICE from exiting a parking structure. l

OBSERVATION - They face little to no consequence for their actions by local prosecutors as do so many other criminals in NYC.
Intensity and growth of violence warranted establishment of a Local Threat Level - ADVISORY notification.

***
PHILADELPHIA: Masked pro-Hamas protesters burned dozens of U.S. flags outside City Hall — Palestinian flags waving above the flames as crowds filmed and chanted.

- Around 400 marched through Center City
- Scuffles with police & vandalism reported
- Several arrests
- Hezbollah & Hamas symbols openly displayed

OBSERVATION - May have some rooting in the assassination of two NG soldiers by an Afghani refugee. Timing may also be based upon the start of the Christmas shopping season and islamic attempts to suppress any celebration of the season by Christians and Jews.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

Another Afghan national brought to the U.S. under the same operation as the National Guard shooter has been arrested and charged with making a terroristic threat.

Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, who gained permanent resident status in 2022 through Operation Allies Welcome, was arrested Tuesday after posting a video on TikTok indicating he was building a bomb to target the Fort Worth area.
Of special note, he was listed as “white” in the booking records.

OBSERVATION - We don’t need to make arguments that these unvetted foreigners are a threat to our country. Their actions are making it for us.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The United States has deployed, installed, and activated a long-range, phased-array, military, radar at a main airport in Trinidad & Tobago. It covers the entire Venezuela coastline and deep inside the country.

The AN/TPS-80 G/ATOR is a multi-mission radar system for the U.S. Marine Corps that can perform air surveillance, air defense, air traffic control, and ground weapon locating.

OBSERVATION - Another key command and control feature that speaks to the ability to conduct a very intense military operation against Venezuela should the word be given.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Trump may be angling to nullify DEI judge appointments made by the Biden White House, as the Biden DID NOT sign their commissions as required by law

DEI Justice Ketanji Brown-Jackson could be in danger of losing her seat, for example.

Statutes dating back to 1792 (1 Stat. 281) and still in force (28 U.S.C. § 172, 5 U.S.C. § 2902, and others) require that commissions be “signed by the President” and “sealed with the Great Seal.”

If a staffer used the autopen to “sign” Biden’s name without his authorization on the commission for Article III judges, the argument can (and should) be made that their rulings are not enforceable.

OBSERVATION - Part of this analysis suggests that biden had no idea or approval of these selection in general. Making a case against KBJ would be hard because of the many public pronouncements by biden of her being his choice. The technicality would be in using autopen versus physical signature.

But the autopen scandal, as noted before, extends far beyond this aspect, into pardons, and other executive actions that now could be considered null and void. This day has been coming and now it is here.

Illegal Immigration –

The Treasury Department published a memo warning that they will now be seizing any and all remittances sent abroad by illegals.
As part of his escalating crackdown on illegals, President Trump’s Treasury has issued a memo stating it will begin seizing remittances sent abroad by illegal aliens, with all suspicious transactions over $2,000 to be flagged.

pic.twitter.com/a2h2xQG9R1

OBSERVATION - Illegals sending remittances to out of nation ‘family and friends’ has long been a problem as millions (billions) of dollars have left the economy via that route. Shutting this off would reportedly create havoc in the economy of Mexico, for instance, given that the inflow of US money has a huge impact on spending (or money available for spending). Same to for other Central/South American countries, to varying degrees. Once again, stripping a financial incentive from the illegals and making them vulnerable to arrest will create more leverage to self deport.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Economic Impact –

Putin has signed Russia’s 2026 budget, allocating at least $166 billion to the war against Ukraine, one-third of all spending and the highest military outlay since the Soviet era. To fund it, Russia slashed social programs.

OBSERVATION - This budget is also loaded with a lot of tax increases boost funding. Given the amount of funding and the glacial advance pace in Ukraine, the Russia people are not getting much for their money and pretty soon it will bounce back against putin.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

RUMINT –
Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, put it to the Ukrainian leadership that their country’s long-term interests would be better served by a tariff relief rather than long-range Tomahawk missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

This comes days after a Bloomberg News report that Witkoff told Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide that the two should work together on a ceasefire plan for Ukraine and that Putin should raise it with Trump.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/artc-what-good-was-a-handful-of-missiles-going-to-accomplish-report-claims-witkoff-offered-ukraine-tariff-relief-instead-of-tomahawks

OBSERVATION - WTH, Witkoff is becoming a Russian asset.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 122 attack drones and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 104 drones, including Shaheds and Geran variants. Hits from 18 drones and both missiles were recorded across 13 locations. Debris fell in 2 more.

Overnight, Ukrainian drones once again attacked energy infrastructure in occupied Donetsk region. Several explosions were reported, as well as power outages across the region.

Russian losses per 30/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1160 men
+5 tanks
+14 ACVs
+7 artillery
+2 MLRS

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia appearing to making another push from the north after a few days of relative inactivity.

***
(NOTE - this is another analysts view/report of actions around Pokrovsk. While containing a hint of propaganda, views seemingly are parallel to other analysts)

POKROVSK: UKR forces have inflicted stinging defeats on Russian troops over the past 48 hours, frustrating Moscow’s long-running bid to capture the city.
Despite dense fog and a 15-to-1 numerical disadvantage, UKR defenders repulsed more than two dozen Russian assaults, reclaimed contested city blocks along the Donetska Railway, and kept vital supply lines open to Myrnohrad.

UKR Airborne troops and SOF , backed by relentless FPV-drone strikes, destroyed three Russian BMPs, wiped out a company-sized assault near Rodynske, (north of Pokrovsk) and killed or wounded an estimated 400 attackers across the sector.

Precision F-16 raids obliterated a Russian command post and drone launch site in the rear. Ukrainian commanders say aggressive counter-attacks and interdicted Ru logistics have turned Pokrovsk into a graveyard for Russian momentum.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Indicators suggest that the fight for Pokrovsk is anything but over.

A point I made a while ago is more pertinent now. Russian ‘assaults’ have withered to small squad and maybe platoon infiltration attempts. Russia is unable to mount larger unit attacks due to personal and equipment shortages. Any movement of tanks/armor get swarmed by drones almost immediately and inspire of the creativeness of Russian designs to protect them, they get disabled and destroyed anyway. Coordination between adjacent units is also lacking. Russia throws small units of men into conflict with little more than hope that the fog holds out.

“Modern” warfare states that forces should be concentrated for a breakthrough with follow-on forces moving quickly behind to exploit any successes. That hasn’t been seen by Russians since early periods of the war, when they still had a lot of tanks and armored vehicles.

This all comes around to say that, though Russia has a degree of initiative in Pokrovsk, they are doing so at great cost.

Finally, the more I read about Witkoff and his negotiating blunders, the madder I get. He is clueless should these reports be verified. Tariff relief will mean nothing if your country is ruled by Russia. And if, as it appears, he is in essence operating as an agent for Russia, he needs to be dumped ASAP.

Europe / NATO General –

ISW. Lithuanian authorities reported on November 29 that they detected over 60 balloons flying into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus overnight and that an unspecified number of balloons forced the Vilnius International Airport to temporarily suspend operations in the early morning of November 29, impacting 22 flights and 3,000 travelers. Aerial incursions have forced Vilnius International Airport to suspend operations several times in recent months.

ISW continues to assess that Russia is increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and the ongoing Russian airspace violations are likely part of “Phase Zero” — Russia’s broader informational and psychological condition-setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

Belarus is Russia’s de facto cobelligerent in the war in Ukraine, thus, Belarusian incursions into NATO airspace

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994994805256949855?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Not directly identified, the launching sites for these balloons is Belarus.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas continues to be reduced in Gaza, both inside and out of the Yellow Zone.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Rafah: 3-4 militants were killed while trying to escape from a tunnel in Jenin district of Rafah. Israeli army forces this morning identified a number of militants who were trying to escape from an underground tunnel in the Jenin neighborhood in Rafah. An aircraft attacked the cell, and it is estimated that between three and four militants were killed. Israeli army forces are currently conducting scans of the area in order to locate the bodies, identify the dead, and check whether among those killed are also Hamas commanders who were involved in managing the underground operation.

https://t.me/yediotnews25/114073

***
Israel launches a series of airstrikes on the city of Rafah, Shuja’iyya neighborhood in Gaza City, and in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces launched a campaign of raids and arrests during a raid on the town of Al-Zawiya in the city of Salfit at dawn today.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Intensity of IDF actions in Gaza remain at a relatively low level. IDF methodically eliminating Hamas when they get identified and located. I suspect that the level of action is concurrent with Trump’s desire to get an international force together to disarm Hamas. How long Trump/Israel will let that float is uncertain. Given that Hamas absolutely refuses to disarm will require a pretty substantial and experienced combat force - and few nations want to step up for that mission.

Clock continues to tick on expanded operations against Hezbollah.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran just launched a ballistic missile from its western Ilam province.
Target: Iraqi Kurdistan

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards: “The Iranian Air Force recently attacked bases loyal to Israel in the Iraq area and attacked military positions of armed Kurdish militias carrying out actions for Israel”

In previous cases Iran blamed Iraqi Kurdistan to be a base of an Israeli Mossad station

This is the first time since the 12-day war in June that Iran has launched ballistic missiles not as a test, but as an actual strike.

OBSERVATION - Some analysts are saying that this is part of the effort by Iran to rebuild its “tough guy” image in the region.

***
Anti-regime protests erupted again in Iran, this time in Qir and Karzin County, Fars Province. Iranian protesters fought back against the Islamist regime’s oppressive security forces, forcing them to retreat after stones were thrown. The protests began when regime agents attempted to confiscate citizens’ vehicles, prompting locals to resist and spark the protests. Videos of the confrontation have gone viral on Iranian social media, with calls for other cities to join and for a new uprising against the totalitarian regime.

OBSERVATION - The general public is increasingly oppressed and the fuse is short. I have no understanding why the regime would try to confiscate private vehicles, unless it is to bolster their supply lost in the 12 day war.

***
Iranian state news agency IRNA reported yesterday that electricity production has been stopped at Kharkheh Dam, the largest earthen dam in the Middle East and one of the largest in the world, due to a “decrease in the reservoir’s water levels.”

OBSERVATIONS - It has reached what is called zero pool. Double hit, no power and no drinking water.

Iraq -

Patriotic Iraqi Shia Movement/PSM political party leader Muqtada Al Sadr refuses to discuss what his group wants. Since the national elections on November 11, Sadr’s party has aligned itself with factions that control 137 of the 329 parliamentary seats. While that’s only 42 percent of the seats, adding a few more small factions could give Sadr a chance to form a new government. The current government is led by Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who is no friend of Sadr and will have to make deals with several factions to hold onto his job. Sudani also wants to maintain good relations with the United States and continued assurances of American assistance in dealing with an increasingly unstable and aggressive Iran. While Iran maintains outwardly peaceful relations with Iraq, that could change if the new Iraqi government goes through with a plan to disarm the pro-Iran PMF/ Popular Mobilization Forces militia. Iran sees this as another effort by Israel and the Americans to curb Iranian power in the reg

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/2025113055332.aspx#gsc.tab=0

OBSERVATION - Sadr continues to play a big role in Iraqi politics, even though largely sitting the latest election out on the sideline. Though Sadr’s alliance religiously is linked to Iran, they maintain a relative strong independence streak from Iran and the US as well.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Trump inferred that he was shutting down Venezuelan airspace “in its entirety” amid a surge in drug trafficking from the South American nation, he announced Saturday morning.

“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Trump wrote in a morning Truth Social post.

OBSERVATION - No orders reportedly have been given, but the inference is enough to put further pressure on the Madaro govt and keep the PSYOPS level high.
Should the US choose to attack land based Venezuelan sites, the most probable scenario would be air strikes and missiles. Boots on the ground one of the least likely, early scenarios.

We have a good supply of Marines in the region and the 82d Abn just a short flight away, but I think the last thing Trump wants is the potential for US ground forces to get bogged down in action and have casualties that the left will pounce upon here in the States.

Central / South America General-

The Dominican Republic has agreed to allow U.S. forces restricted access for refueling and logistical operations, including KC-135 tanker aircraft for maritime patrols and C-130 Hercules cargo planes for disaster relief and reconnaissance.

Dominican President Luis Abinader emphasized the temporary nature of the deal, citing a tenfold increase in drug seizures due to U.S. collaboration. However, critics suspect broader geopolitical motives, particularly against Venezuela.

Misc of Note –

La Niña, associated with cool water over the tropical Pacific, has a significant impact on Northwest weather, influencing temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.
As described below, La Niña has strengthened recently, and some decidedly La Niña weather is now in the forecasts.

According to the latest observations, we are about to transition from a weak to a moderate La Niña. (Previous forecasts did not indicate a transition)

La Niña winters tend to be associated with an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and associated cold northerly flow over the Northwest. La Niña winters tend to be cooler than normal over the Northwest, generally with more snow than typical.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/30/la-nina-strengthens-what-are-the-implications-for-this-winter/

OBSERVATION - While still largely in the tea leaves stage, weather forecasters have an abundance of historic data from which to base their predictions on. A strengthening La Nina will make for an interesting winter season. Check your winter preps. Monitor for severe weather as forecasts become more shorter ranged and accurate.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Dying With Dignity Canada, a euthanasia (actually, murder) activist group, believes that “maturity” rather than age should determine who is eligible for medical assistance in dying and “recommends minors as young as 12 be included in the program, and goes as far as to suggest 16 and 17-year-olds shouldn’t even need parental consent to be killed by a doctor if they fit broad criteria.”

But why draw an arbitrary line at 12 years old? Why not younger? And we’ve already seen activists pushing for parents to be allowed to end the lives of disabled newborns and babies (and, of course, abortion is legal at any stage of pregnancy across Canada already). Yes, it’s a slippery slope when humans decide to be their own authority for who lives and dies.

https://harbingersdaily.com/canadian-activists-call-for-child-euthanisia-including-without-parental-consent-for-older-minors/

OBSERVATION - Global depopulation continues to be a major theme of the globalists, and they support any means by which to kill off people, be it “euthanasia”, abortion, murder drugs masked as ‘vaccines’, etc.
They continue to press their agenda thru individual, willing countries.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott. Ongoing

***

Over 150 anti-ICE agitators were seen descending on lower Manhattan on Saturday after there were reports of illegal immigrants being detained. The agitators were seen clashing with police in the city as they attempted to block ICE agents in a parking garage.

NYPD responded and eventually cleared the mob away

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-150-left-wing-agitators-target-ice-agents-clash-with-nypd-arrests-made#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Incoming Mayor Zohran Mamdani campaigned on blocking ICE enforcement in NYC. It is uncertain if his meeting with Trump changed his mind at all. It remains to be seen what policy New York City will have under his tenure.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

National Guard members are on the move in Washington DC, trying to make their patrols less predicable in the wake of the ambush that left one soldier dead and another critically wounded.

Before Wednesday’s shocking attack, Guard members were stationed, often in pairs, at fixed locations including DC’s Metro, main thoroughfares and the National Mall.

“We’ve got to set everything to kind of a higher standard, versus kind of relaxed, you know how it used to be,” one Guardsman, who asked for anonymity, told The Post.

The Washington Post reported that DC police will accompany Guard troops at least temporarily, in a shift that acknowledges the risks of the status quo.

“Officers will conduct high-visibility patrols with the national guard and provide assistance as needed,” according to an email to DC leadership obtained by the Washington Post.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/29/us-news/national-guard-utilizing-roving-patrols-in-dc-after-ambush/

OBSERVATION - Still, MSM is trying to make it the fault of the NG and Trump that the soldiers were shot.

***
Rahmanullah Lakanwal is being portrayed as a poor immigrant with depression as the reason he drove all the way across the county just to murder NG in DC.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The typical U.S. listing saw $25,000 in cumulative price cuts in October, according to a new Zillow analysis. According to the real estate platform, typical price cuts remain near $10,000, but multiple price reductions are becoming more common as homes take longer to sell.

“These discounts are bringing more listings in line with buyers’ budgets and helping fuel the most active fall housing market in three years. Patient buyers are reaping the rewards as the market continues to rebalance,” Kara Ng, a Zillow senior economist, said.

https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/5626418-record-price-cuts-us-homes/

OBSERVATION - This may not be as wonderful as the article infers. Interest rates are still very high and these cuts only put a dent in its effects.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Marine Corps announced it met its fiscal 2026 retention goals weeks after the target window opened, signaling strength and disciplined execution from the service.

Commandant Gen. Eric Smith noted in a video produced in October and released after the government shutdown that the effort was achieved “earlier than ever before.”

This outcome appears to be a direct reflection of steady leadership and a policy environment aimed at strengthening readiness.

https://wokespy.com/marines-hit-retention-goals-ahead-of-schedule-officials-say/

OBSERVATION - Too early to tell if the Seditious Six’s message has reached these new recruits, but I think that those signing up know full well the BS they have tried to inject into the system.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Pfizer has never announced the results, sitting on them for years. They show older adults who received mRNA had MORE flu infections, deaths, and side effects than those who got a standard flu shot.
Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine for influenza failed when tested against the standard flu shot in a 27,000-person trial of older adults — a failure Pfizer has not announced for years.

Almost three times as many people who received the mRNA shot suffered acute respiratory failure or major kidney problems. More died, too. Overall, mRNA patients were much more likely to report side effects than those who got the standard flu shot.

But mRNA shots did not protect patients from the flu better than standard shots.

mRNA Covid jab sales have already cratered. This new failure may effectively end development of mRNA shots for respiratory viruses — and many other viruses too.

Pfizer has never publicly announced the failure of the trial.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/11/very-urgent-pfizers-mrna-flu-shot-failed-its-pivotal-clinical-trial-in-adults-65-and-older/

OBSERVATION - While watching a bible teaching program last night, I was reminded about a couple of things. First was the now destroyed and removed “Georgia Guidestones” (remember them) saying the design was to reduce the human population to about 500 million - a reduction of 90%. The second item was a statement by Bill Gates saying that population reduction of 10-15% could be achieved by VACCINES! Evidence continues to point to a large conspiracy concerning the wuhan jabs produced by Pfizer and Moderna - killing and injuring more than they protected. Same flawed methods now being applied to a flu “vaccine”, and again, with damning results being buried and not reported.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A lot of back and forth on the NG deployment and a new faux scandal with the Sec War. It seems that the recent PR offensive by the left has crested for the time being as their point guards - the Seditious Six - have encountered major pushback across the board.

Illegal Immigration –

Reports that some elements within ICE and DHS are deliberately sabotaging deportation arrests and removals - slowing them down so that the goal of one million cannot be attained.

This is not surprising given the extent of infection by the deep state across govt.

North/South Korea –

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has hinted that the country’s air force has been equipped with nuclear weapons to “repulse provocations of the enemies”. The 41-year-old rotund despot has been seen in new photographs issued by the state news agency inspecting military aircraft and speaking with pilots

Speaking to state media, Kim said the fighter planes will be equipped with “new strategic assets”, the word strategic has often been used by the leader to refer to nuclear weapons.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2140378/north-korea-kim-jong-un-ww3-nuclear-fighter-jets

OBSERVATION - Kim’s main efforts have been medium to long range missiles for nuclear deterrence. Shorter range systems IMHO have lagged. Using the aircraft they have a delivery means for nukes is practical as well as indicating that they’ve achieved technology to scale down the war head size that can be carried on an jet fighter. The question is can these jets successfully penetrate SK air defenses and fighter screen to accomplish their mission.

Japan –

Last week, Tokyo’s top defense official toured Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) and Coast Guard facilities across the southwestern islands – including a base located 70 nautical miles away from Taiwan.

On Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, Defense Minister Shinjirō Koizumi visited garrisons in the Ryukyu Islands, a strategic archipelagic chain running between Taiwan and Kyushu. Over the last three years, Japanese forces stationed in this region have weekly run-ins with Chinese vessels and aircraft transiting in and out of the first island chain. According to a Ministry of Defense release, Koizumi inspected units at the Miyakojima Air Base, Ishigaki Garrison and Yonaguni Garrison.

The last 10 years have seen the gradual build-up of military bases and other defense-related infrastructure around Japan’s southwestern region amid increasing concerns from Tokyo of a spillover from a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The visit to these bases coincided with a diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo following comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding potential involvement in a Taiwan contingency if the situation was deemed detrimental to the survival of Japan. Since Takaichi’s initial comments, Chinese diplomats and defense officials have vowed to enact a “heavy price” in the event of Japanese military involvement.

https://news.usni.org/2025/11/28/japanese-defense-minister-koizumi-tours-military-bases-near-taiwan

OBSERVATIONS - These islands would become a significant target in either Chinese scenario to capture Taiwan - Encirclement/Siege or direct assault.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

US envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Moscow today to discuss a potential peace deal with Putin, after talks in Florida. Washington reportedly proposed Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, Ukraine rejected it. As of now, no final agreement exists. Discussions covered elections, territory issues and various compromise options.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian Air Defense shot down or jammed 63 out of 89 Russian drones overnight, mostly Shaheds, launched from Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo, occupied Crimea & more.

Kaspiysk, Dagestan: A powerful explosion hit the city this morning, damaging homes & at least 15 cars. Local reports suggest a Ukrainian drone strike targeting the Dagdizel naval weapons plant.

Russian losses per 01/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1060 men
+1 tank
+6 ACVs
+14 artillery

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Klynove village in Donetsk region of Ukraine

The Panamanian-flagged and Turkish-owned oil tanker, M/T MERSIN, alleged to be affiliated with the Russian Shadow Fleet, is currently sinking off the coast of Dakar, Senegal in Western Africa, after reportedly coming under attack overnight by several uncrewed surface vessels, in possibly the third attack in the last week by Ukrainian Intelligence Services against a tanker linked to Russia.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Looks like Russia is attempting to split the Ukraine pocket by simultaneously attacking from the south and north along highway H-32 that connects Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Continued brutal fight for Pokrovsk. As noted, Russia still having problems sealing the deal and now looking to apparently redouble some of their efforts to close the pocket in a more coordinated manner.

Standard low day for Russian drone attacks. If Ukraine hit the sanctioned Russian oil tanker off the coast of Dakar, Senegal, a new stage of the economic war has been attained. Indicates Ukraine has managed to get an ocean platform to launch the sea drones from as well as establishing where these sanctioned tankers are at. A difficult task to find since due to their sanctioned status, they generally run with transponders off or with a fake ID. Three tankers lost in two days is pretty good hunting.

Soap opera city as Witkoff goes to talk to putin. Lucy/football.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IDF reports that the 200 Hamas in tunnels have essentially been liquidated.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

A major Ynet report says Washington’s “New Gaza” initiative aims to:
- Relocate up to 2 million Palestinians into temporary neighborhoods under IDF-controlled areas
- Strip Hamas of territory and control
- Build housing, infrastructure & job programs with international funding
- Establish small aid hubs to block Hamas theft of supplies
- Create a security strip and strongpoints along the “yellow line” dividing Hamas and IDF zones

The IDF currently controls ~57% of Gaza as part of the initial pilot in Rafah
US planners expect the process to take many months, likely years
Hamas forces would eventually be isolated in a limited enclave with major pressure to disarm or leave

https://x.com/mossadil/status/1995213744834810167?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF killed a Hamas battalion commander, his deputy, and two others as they emerge from tunnels in eastern Rafah. More and more Hamas terrorists who were trapped beneath Rafah in a massive tunnel network are now crawling up to the surface and surrendering.

With these recent hits, IDF says roughly 200 Hamas fighters who were barricaded in underground positions in Rafah and refused to surrender have been neutralized in a recent operation.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

EU diplomats blame Israel for stalling Gaza stabilization — while ignoring Hamas’ refusal to disarm and PA terror payments.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The “New Gaza” initiative sounds very practical. Progressively isolate the Hamas controlled sector of Gaza by blocking / limiting aid and taking away their human shields. Meanwhile, Israel cleans up Hamas from the Yellow Zone and prepares for migration of screened/searched Gazans for resettlement. In doing so, they can win back some of these Gazans now freed from the harsh rule of Hamas. Initiative remains in Israel’s hands, while accomplishing their goals with minimal fighting.

Meanwhile, in the Yellow Zone, operations to eliminate the approximately 200 Hamas troops trapped in tunnels appears to be reaching an end. Operations continue to destroy all remaining tunnels to prevent future use.

Syria -

The Security forces, working with Intelligence services, dismantled 2 ISIS cells in overnight raids in Idlib province (area of Dana & W. of Idlib). 2 members who refused to surrender were killed; others were arrested. Weapons, explosives and suicide belts were seized

US announced that, in collaboration with Damascus forces, it destroyed over 15 ISIS weapons caches in Damascus province a few days ago through airstrikes and controlled ground detonations.

OBSERVATION - Given the new govt’s association with AQ, attacking ISIS is interesting.

Al Qaeda and ISIS draw on similar schools of thought. Both are inspired by the works of medieval scholar Ibn Taymiyya, 20th century Egyptian ideologue Sayyid Qutb, and later scholars, such as Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi, a Palestinian-Jordanian who taught former al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi. Both groups claim their hardline interpretations are reviving the purity of the faith when it was founded in the seventh century. But most influential jihadist ideologues, including Maqdisi, have remained loyal to al Qaeda.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/al-qaeda-v-isis-ideology-strategy

The AQ based support of Jolani would see ISIS as a challenge to his rule as a competing faction.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

President Donald Trump has reportedly rejected Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s request for broad amnesty during a newly disclosed phone conversation last week, telling Maduro and his top advisers to drop their demands and swiftly exit Venezuela as US military pressure intensifies, which has lately included an order to halt all flights in the country’s sovereign airspace.

https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-rejects-maduro-request-amnesty-newly-disclosed-phone/

OBSERVATION - There have been a number of these unconfirmed reports. I suspect that there is a heaping dose of propaganda / PSYOPS mixed in.

Globalism / Great Reset –

In a recent interview with Axios, Bill Gates expressed his views on the controversial topic of solar geoengineering, a subset of technologies aimed at cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space. Gates is a major funder of research into these technologies.

Gates emphasized that the world is largely on track to avoid the worst climate impacts, thanks to the increasing adoption of clean energy solutions. However, he also acknowledged the possibility of especially dire consequences driven by climate tipping points, scenarios in which warming triggers reinforcing feedbacks or secondary effects that accelerate climate change. In such extreme cases, Gates said, “You would then need to reach for some other type of intervention.”

The tech tycoon also acknowledged the two main arguments against solar geoengineering, which he considers legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. The first is political: relying on solar geoengineering could potentially undermine efforts to cut fossil fuel use, which Gates sees as a major drawback. The second is scientific: researchers need a clear understanding of how injected particles would affect communities, including the risks of altered rainfall or drought patterns.

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2025/12/01/bill-gates-funds-geoengineering-to-dim-the-sun-after-saying-climate-change-is-not-a-threat-to-humanity/

OBSERVATION - The goal isn’t global cooling, but denying necessary sunlight for crops to grow. No food, famines begin and he achieves a goal of population reduction.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month in November, with factories facing slumping orders and higher prices for inputs as the drag from import tariffs persisted.
The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2 last month from 48.7 in October. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy.

https://stocks.apple.com/AYy4jH_YhQiq4VcgvXofZUg

POLITICAL FRONT –

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is in the sights of the left and MSM and has been for a while, only now the pressure is increasing.

IMHO due to two key points.

1 He is not the deep state’s man, loyal to Trump and will not bend should the Color Revolution go hot (2026)

2 The growing probability that he will call Sen Kelly back to active duty for court marshal and sweep other officers in with him for the same.

Latest attack circulates from the accusation that Hegseth ordered a second strike on a drug boat. The Washington Post claimed, according to “sources,” that a second strike was ordered to kill two survivors clinging to the boat’s wreckage in the water pursuant to instructions from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth

Take a deep breath - unidentified ‘sources’ and Washington Post in the same sentence. Reassuring huh.

WP failed to report key aspects

“According to five U.S. officials, who spoke separately and on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter that is under investigation, Mr. Hegseth, ahead of the Sept. 2 attack, ordered a strike that would kill the people on the boat and destroy the vessel and its purported cargo of drugs.
But, each official said, Mr. Hegseth’s directive did not specifically address what should happen if a first missile turned out not to fully accomplish all of those things. And, the officials said, his order was not a response to surveillance footage showing that at least two people on the boat survived the first blast.

Admiral Bradley ordered the initial missile strike and then several follow-up strikes that killed the initial survivors and sank the disabled boat. As that operation unfolded, they said, Mr. Hegseth did not give any further orders to him.

The two officials questioned whether the surviving people were Admiral Bradley’s intended target in the second strike, as opposed to the purported drugs and the disabled vessel. They argued that the purported cargo remained a threat and a lawful military target because another cartel-associated boat might have come to retrieve it.

https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2025/12/02/more-on-hegseth-actions-re-strikes-n2196720

It is also worth noting should he stick his nose into it. Sen Kelly was involved in a similar action during the gulf war. He hit an Iraqi patrol vessel with a Harpoon missile, then while crew were abandoning ship, he ordered a follow-on air strike on same boat.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff was due to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, taking to the Kremlin an embryonic peace plan that Washington hopes can bring about an end to the nearly four-year war in Ukraine.

***
Putin has ordered the creation of a “security zone” along the Ukrainian border in the area of responsibility of Russia’s “North” grouping. In effect, this signals plans to expand control over border areas in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.

Logistics –

Sudan opens its doors to Russia: Khartoum offers Moscow its first naval base in Africa – WSJ. On Red Sea

Economic Impact –

Putin starts a 2-day visit to India from December 4, pitching for more sales of Russian oil, missile systems and fighter jets in a bid to restore energy and defence ties hit by U.S. pressure on the South Asian nation.

OBSERVATION - Some analysts believe the conditions of Russia’s economy are in very severe condition to the point that putin is out trying to sell his wares.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down or jammed 39 drones overnight out of 62 launched from various directions including Bryansk, Oryol, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Crimea, and Donetsk. Most were Shaheds. Strikes hit 8 locations with 20 drones.

Russian losses per 02/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1110 men
+1 ACV
+14 artillery

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Dobropillia and Zelenyi Hai villages of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine

ISW. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Stepnohirsk in western Zaporizhia Oblast and in the Dobropillya direction near Pokrovsk.

Russian-flagged tanker, MIDVOLGA 2, was reportedly attacked about 80 miles off Turkey’s coast while sailing from Russia to Georgia with a cargo of sunflower oil. All 13 crew members are said to be in good condition but have requested assistance.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia has formally announced Monday its forces have captured the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, the long fought-over strategic military logistics hub, as well as the city of Vovchansk in the northeast. Pokrovsk has long been seen as military gateway for control over the whole east

NOTE - Russian mil-bloggers are not so certain, saying that the fight for Pokrovsk is not clearly won yet and the struggle continues to be fierce. Thoughts are this is a PR announcement by the Kremlin to bolster support for the continued war.

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk is still ongoing and fierce, but as noted, not all Russian reporters are agreeing with Moscow’s claims. The general trend shows Pokrovsk gradually slipping away from Ukraine control, but it isn’t finished. The loss of this fortress city damages the eastern front defense, but Russia doesn’t have the forces to rapidly exploit any capture.

Belarus -

Ursula von der Leyen:
“EU preparing sanctions on Belarus over ‘hybrid attack’ on Lithuania”

Europe / NATO General –

Germany’s military and political establishment is quietly preparing for what it now openly warns could be the gravest threat to Europe since the Cold War: a potential Russian attack on NATO by 2029.
The assessment, revealed in a detailed Wall Street Journal report, underscores how profoundly Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shattered Europe’s decades-long confidence in stability and exposed the continent’s chronic neglect of defense.
Two and a half years ago, a dozen senior German officers gathered inside Berlin’s understated Julius Leber Barracks to draft a classified 1,200-page war plan known as Operation Plan Germany, or OPLAN DEU.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/germany-russia-attack/2025/12/01/id/1236557/

***
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone an Italian admiral who currently serves as Chair of the NATO Military Committee since January 2025, said NATO could consider a “pre-emptive strike” as a defensive response to Russian hybrid attacks.
He did this in an Interview with the London Financial Times. What did he mean “Russian hybrid attacks?” If Moscow keeps waging what NATO calls cyber sabotage, energy disruption, election interference and drone harassment, NATO might hit first.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/natos-top-general-utters-the-phrase-pre-emptive-strike

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Isreal - Phase 2 on hold until Hamas releases the bodies of the final two Israelis

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu: We expect Syria to establish a demilitarized zone from Damascus to the buffer zone, especially Mount Hermon. Netanyahu: In good spirits and with an understanding of our principles — it’s possible to reach an agreement with the Syrians

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Heavy airstrikes hit the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

***
Hamas terrorist Abdullah Hamad, the son of senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, was killed in Rafah on Sunday, according to social media posts by the family and reports in local Palestinian media. Hamad was one of the terrorists killed by the IDF while trying to flee from a tunnel in Rafah on Sunday, the Hamas-affiliated Quds News Network reported. Sources within the Hamad family also reportedly confirmed the death to The Palestinian Information Center.

***
Israel has informed Washington that it will NOT move to Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire until the bodies of the two remaining captives are returned. It has now been over 7,600 hours, and Hamas is still holding two hostages: Ran Gvili and Sudthisak Rinthalak.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Pretty much status quo. Pressure towards resumption of the war with Hezbollah grows as does additional stakes on Iran are on the horizon.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Videos posted to Iranian social media by Iranian opposition channels show footage they claimed showed Israel’s strike on Iran.

OBSERVATION - There has been growing friction with the regime by some elements of the military .

***
Iran’s Central Bank: Inflation in Iran was reported at 41% last year.
And if this is what the Central Bank is willing to publish, the real number is likely far higher - perhaps even ten times higher.
(Iran News)

Iraq -

Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria, during a visit to Baghdad on Monday, warned the Iraqi government to remain on the sidelines of a potential new conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

According to the Saudi state-run al-Hadath news outlet, Barrack signaled that a new escalation between Hezbollah and Lebanon could be coming soon and warned Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani that Israel could broaden its strikes to Iraq if the local Iran-backed Shia militias intervened on the terror group’s side.

https://allisraelnews.com/us-envoy-warns-israel-will-attack-iraqi-terror-groups-if-they-help-hezbollah

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

ALMA: Lebanon’s institutions are collapsing, and the Lebanese Armed Forces are struggling just to survive. The army is being kept afloat by U.S., Qatari, and French funding that covers salaries, fuel, food, and basic equipment.
But with a largely Muslim rank-and-file and deep Hezbollah penetration, the LAF has neither independence nor the capacity to confront the group. Foreign money keeps the army standing, yet does not create a force able or willing to challenge Hezbollah.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1995455996395667508?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - That is narrowing it down to one solution - resumption of Israels war against Hezbollah.

Syria -

A new analysis warns that multiple terror groups, including PIJ, ISIS, Houthi-linked cells, and Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, are building up in southern Syria, plotting attacks toward the Golan Heights.

Israel has already carried out a major raid in Beit Jann, and has warned the new Syrian regime:
Stop the terror buildup, or Israel will take action itself.
The report also notes the regime still isn’t stopping Iran-to-Hezbollah weapons smuggling through the area.

Relatively calm hump day.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NYC - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Nov 30, 2025
Twin Cities region (Minneapolis and St Paul MN) Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Dec 3, 2025

CHANGES - Seattle and the SF Bay area dropped from watch, but things have the potential to flare up. Added the Twin Cities region.

***

COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE

Speaking of islamic action, I’m continuing to assess the moslem component to CW2 and the ongoing Color Revolution. There is certainly coordination between the marxist left and the islamic leaders of radicalized moslems. However, the objectives of islam as being observed, show a primary push to place all infidels under their islamic laws, and that includes the left.

The coordination appears to be focusing on the common threat - Trump and supporters (enemy of my enemy is my friend). If that ever ceases to be a common objective, the goals of the two will start to separate rapidly IMHO.

***
OTHER UPDATES

***
Anti ICE actions, mostly by somali elements, is expected to significantly increase in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St Paul MN) region as there are reports of hundreds of agents staging for operations. Target 1 are somalis who are here illegally, the largest ethnic group in the area.

I fully expect some significant violence with this action. I’ve assessed the Local Threat Level - ADVISORY in part due to the Somali illegal targets as well as societal volatility expressed in the Floyd riots of 2020 still present in some measure.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Some analysts are saying that the housing market bubble is about to burst and the results will be worse than 2008. Similar analysts have been warning of a bubble burst for several years now, but current economic trends since 2020 are beginning to reinforce this view.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Aftyn Behn by 9 points. District +10 though went for Trump by 22. Behn was known as the Tennessean AOC. The left flooded the state with money expecting to flip the seat blue. They did over perform but not enough to bridge the gap.

***
Democrats and some weasel republicans are still pushing the narrative that the double tapped drug boat was ordered by the Sec War. However, the NYTs over the past few days put cold water on the narrative, but it is the only game in town for the left at the moment.

***
MN gov Walz is up to his eyeballs in Somali money scams. We’er talking in the billions of dollars level.

***
Meanwhile, KA gov newscum is moving closer to a declared candidacy for president.

***
House minority leader Jeffers resuming his threats against Trump supporters should the left return to power.

***
House Democrats urged Republican leadership to allow Representatives to hire full-time armed staff members for security.

OBSERVATION - Something must either have smacked the democrats on the head and are realizing they let the genie out the bottle with all their calls for violence, or worse, they know in the background they are about to unleash violence aimed at the right / Trump supporters that could result in equally violent push back onto them.

TRUMP Watch –

Ripples are beginning to spread outward following Trump’s declaration that the thousands of biden autopen orders are null and void. Until tested in court, the proclamation by Trump may or may not take effect.

Illegal Immigration –

The Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St Paul MN) are expecting a surge in ICE actions, with the large Somali community in their sights. Besides all the criminal corruption, ICE/DHS is indicating that most of the visas are fraudulent. Deep corruption by MN pols like Walz and others will work towards trying to thwart ICE operations.

***
NYC is holding over 7000 illegals in jail on various crimes and are refusing to honor ICE retainers to turn them over for deportations proceedings. Another 7000 plus have been released and not turned over to ICE either.

China -

According to a newly released report, China’s weapons manufacturers had a 10% overall drop in revenue in 2024 due to the corruption purges. However, China’s top shipbuilder reported an 8.7% increase in revenue during 2024.

https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-11/fs_2512_top_100_2024.pdf

North/South Korea –

SK President Lee Jae Myung on Tuesday dismissed calls for South Korea’s own nuclear armament, saying it would be “impossible” to gain the international community’s approval.

Lee made the remark during a Cabinet meeting amid renewed calls from some opposition lawmakers to push for the country’s nuclear armament.

The calls have come in light of the United States’ recent support for processes leading to South Korea’s civil uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing for peaceful use.

“The uranium enrichment and nuclear reprocessing issues are in some ways not proceeding smoothly and swiftly. The reason for that is there are concerns about nuclear armament,” Lee said during the meeting at the presidential office, citing “various kinds of talk” in some departments of the U.S. government.

“If we were to go nuclear, it would be impossible to gain the approval of the U.S. or the international community, and economic and international sanctions would immediately follow. Would we be able to bear that?”

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20251202006200315?section=national/defense

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals.

OBSERVATION - The massive Lucy and the football soap opera of the past couple weeks ended as expected, with some platitudes from putin but otherwise a hard no.

***
Russia threatening to increasingly target Ukrainian port facilities after 4 shadow fleet tankers were hit and severely damaged / sunk.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

December 3, Russia launched 111 attack drones, mostly Shaheds, across Ukraine. Air defenses shot down or jammed 83 of them. Strikes hit 13 locations, with significant damage to civilian infrastructure and homes in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Odesa regions.

Ukrainian attack drones hit a Russian oil storage depot in Tambov Oblast tonight, setting the facility ablaze.

The Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia was hit again, this time near Kazinskiye Vyselki on the Taganrog-Lipetsk section, Ukraine’s intelligence reports. The pipeline supplies Russian oil to Europe, including Hungary. The attack used a remotely triggered explosive device with incendiary compounds to intensify the fire.

Russian losses per 03/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1200 men
+6 tanks
+3 ACVs
+12 artillery
+3 MLRS

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukraine counterattacks gaining more success as defenses again look to stablize in and around Pokrovsk. Fighting remains fierce and Russia maintaining a lot of pressure on Ukraine defenders.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Peace talks with putin went about as I expected. putin wants only his way or the highway. Knew that was going to be the outcome no matter what concessions the US offered.

Monitoring the reported Russian casualties suggest to me an overall increasing trend in losses. Some days lower, but higher counts are becoming more prevalent. One possibility is that Russia is losing the fog advantage and troops and equipment are becoming more visible and exposed to FPV strikes.

Action in Pokrovsk suggests that Russia is only able to make incremental gains of late. It could be weeks before any decisive victory can be declared - at best for Russia.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Body handed over by Hamas was not one of the remaining hostages

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Relatively routine reduction in Hamas forces and facilities / tunnels continues in the Yellow Zone, as well as strikes of opportunity in Hama controlled Gaza.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Relative calm in comparison to past operations continues over Gaza. No major offensive actions by Israel, only methodical reduction of Hamas and underground tunnels/bunker complexes. Resumption of reports of more Hamas elements essentially trapped in their tunnels, now for over 100 days, running out of food and water. This was a draw back that Hamas may not have fully planned for - an extended siege of tunnel networks. Then again, Hamas didn’t plan on Israel launching a massive invasion of Gaza, unlike other fights in the past.

Informational battlefield being prepared for resumption of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. Continued warning of Israeli strikes in the light of revealed failures of Lebanon to disarm them, failures of Syria to shut off all smuggling, Iranian money being funneled via Turkey, etc.

Again, at present I don’t see the window opening now until the first of the year, given latest deadline by DC. However, an increase in strikes leading up to full assault is very likely.

Syria -

Syrian Interior Ministry security units thwarted a shipment of some 1,250 landmines destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to the Ministry, four suspects were arrested at the smuggling site in Al-Jobeh near the Syria-Lebanon border, and a fifth killed in a firefight.

Heads up. I will not be able to post this coming Sunday thru Wed mornings as usual. Numerous other events that will be taking priority.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

CHANGES - Seattle and the SF Bay area dropped from watch, but things have the potential to flare up. Added the Twin Cities region.

***

COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE

(PHASE 2/3 - Military) On Wednesday on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) argued the “uniformed military may help save us from” President Donald Trump.

He added, “Remember, this is an administration that has treated the uniformed military with unprecedented disrespect when they were all brought to get a pep rally in front of Hegseth and Trump. “This is an administration that’s fired, you know, uniform generals from the head of the NSA, the head of the Defense Intelligence agency. I think in many ways, the uniformed military may help save us from this president and his lame people like Hegseth, because I think their commitment is to the Constitution and obviously not to Trump. I expect (Admiral) Bradley to adhere to that.”

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2025/12/03/mark-warner-says-uniformed-military-may-help-save-us-from-this-president/

OBSERVATION - Since Trump’s reelection, there have been elements within the military higher command that have bristled at having to follow his orders. It is known that some generals and high placed civilians in the Pentagon have set up a group to sabotage Trumps orders. It would not totally surprise me if these elements try to stage a coup in the next three years. The big question is will the lower ranks follow THOSE orders? Reality is, the higher the rank, the more kissing of rear ends of politicians become the standard - politics drives assignments and promotions. There may be enough mid level leadership to follow this path to career termination but almost equally enough that will say no.

***
(Phase 1/2 - Military/Police) Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara urged Somalis to call 911 on masked individuals detaining people—clearly referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents—suggesting they might be kidnappers.

“Folks that are masked—when people aren’t sure if they’re law enforcement, or if they may be kidnapping people—we have had those reports. I want to be clear to the community: the community should know that if you see something like that and you don’t know whether someone is law enforcement, you should call 911 and provide as much information as possible,”

O’Hara said.His comments follow reports that a large federal immigration operation is being prepared in Minnesota’s Twin Cities, with more than 100 agents reportedly assigned to target Somalis.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) reiterated the city’s refusal to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on civil immigration enforcement, reaffirming a long-standing policy that blocks local involvement in federal immigration actions, despite the threat migrant criminals pose to the public.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2025/12/03/minneapolis-police-chief-calls-on-somali-community-to-report-masked-ice-agents-pledges-intervention/

OBSERVATION - It doesn’t take much to note that the sheriff is setting down a line inferring the ICE actions are ‘kidnappings’ and that he is willing to send deputies to confront ICE and other federal agents conducting legal apprehensions of illegals. Will cooler heads prevail? I really don’t think shooting will break out, but suspect that deputies may show up to ‘document’ any violations, as has been happening in other places, particularly Chicago.

***
(PHASE 1/2 - Military / Police) California’s top elected officials announced a new online portal Wednesday with the stated purpose of having members of the public share information with the state’s Department of Justice about “potentially unlawful activity by federal agents and officers across the state.”

Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta issued a press release from the governor’s office, acknowledging that “Federal agents have broad authority to enforce federal laws, including federal immigration laws,” but adding that “they must do so lawfully.”

The portal allows citizens to submit videos and photos to help “create a record of potential unlawful conduct by federal agents, and inform possible legal actions the state may take to protect Californians’ rights.”

https://justthenews.com/accountability/california-announces-new-online-portal-public-report-alleged-misconduct-federal

OBSERVATION - Further attempts to intimidate federal law enforcement with state level charges for doing their job. More dangerously is that this ‘database’ will also serve as a mechanism to doxx the identities of these agents. Kalifornian leadership essentially has defined any and all arrests of illegals as violating some kind of law as it considers that illegals are “Californians”.
Bonta would do well to prosecute the crimes by his illegal “Californians” and protect real citizens, but he wont.
***
(FO) (PHASE 1/2 - Civil Service) During a press conference on Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) hinted that Democrats will pursue federal criminal charges against Trump administration officials and Republicans if Democrats take back the White House in 2028.

“The one thing that should be clear, to all of these Republican extremists and sycophants and the people who are either actively involved in corruption, violating the law, engaged in extrajudicial activity, is that the statute of limitations for any crimes being committed now… will extend well beyond the end of the Trump administration,” Jeffries said

Forward Observer Analysis: Democrats are likely planning to levy federal criminal charges against Trump administration officials if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028. Jeffries appears to be hinting that this could expand to include not only federal employees who do not disrupt the Trump administration, but possibly elected Republicans who do not oppose the Trump administration’s agenda. The likely intent of this threat is to undermine the capacity of the Trump administration by paralyzing the executive branch and deterring political support from Republicans.

MY OBSERVATION - I see Jeffries threat to extend to ALL Trump supporters, in a witch hunt fashion modeled after J6. Its one thing to strike the leadership, but they have to instill fear into the citizenry in order to prevent an election repeat of 2024 - and that means serious suppression.

***
(PHASE 1/2 - Business and Military / Police) Illinois state officials warned rental car companies that they could be held legally liable for ICE agents swapping license plates to disguise vehicles. The Illinois Secretary of State sent warning letters to 19 rental car companies and revoked at least one license plate in response to the practice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/illinois-rental-car-license-plates-immigration-agents-illegal-rcna246115

OBSERVATION - Sanctuary blue states using every means to inhibit ICE operations. License plate swapping is common and legal for law enforcement actions like ICE. Illinois seeking to chill rental companies from working with ICE.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents apprehended Jaan Shah Safi in Waynesboro, Va., on suspicion of providing support to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan (ISIS-K), according to the Department of Homeland Security. Safi’s arrest makes him the third Afghan national originally brought into the U.S. by a Biden-era evacuation program to be taken into custody in a week.

https://thelibertydaily.com/third-afghan-released-us-under-biden-program-arrested/

OBSERVATION - There are likely thousands more of these terrorists hidden out there.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Payrolls processor ADP reported that private payrolls surprisingly declined by 32,000 in November. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 40,000 for the month. Despite the tough reading, traders were likely betting that the private job losses will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its last meeting of the year next week as a way to rev up the U.S. economy after it’s seen some weakness.

OBSERVATION - Not good news headed into the holiday season selling. As noted, it will be hard for the Fed to justify not lowering the prime rate.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Anyone else notice the absolute silence from the left now that the law to release all Epstine records was passed and signed by Trump . . . . . .

***
Attacks continue on Sec War. The left has got to get him out so that planted generals and SCS civilians can retake the pentagon and drive policy and not the WH.

TRUMP Watch –

On the anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine President Trump declared “I am proudly reasserting this time-honored policy.” Trump explains that the remigration policies, naval buildup, Panama Canal negotiations, counternarcotics mission, and trade deals in Latin America are part of the renewed Monroe Doctrine.

OBSERVATION - More than just rhetoric, hostile nations like China, Russia and Iran have wormed their way into key Central and South American nations to essentially set up forward operating bases and intel collection sites. Venezuela is one example of Russian and China influence. Cuba hosting a growing Chinese contingent - with a lot of intel collection assets.

Illegal Immigration –

A NGO headquartered in Minnesota is getting paid $2,375 for every Somalia immigrant they bring into the United States

“Why are Somalians in America? I looked into it — The main group bringing in Somalians is Lutheran Social Services — it turns out they get $2,375 for every Somalian they bring over”

The money is a one-time Reception and Placement grant of $2,425 per refugee (updated from $2,375 in recent years), paid by the State Department to cover immediate arrival costs (e.g., airfare reimbursement, first-month rent, furniture, airport pickup)

Lutheran Social Services is ONE OF 10 national Voluntary Agencies contracted by the U.S. State Department to handle logistics for refugees

https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1995530834947047869?t=-gCbg85fh2o-raRZiIc5rQ&s=19

OBSERVATION - I would certainly hope the funding got dried out this year as these numbers reflect older data (some of it 2018)

***
(FO) According to an internal email, ICE was ordered to prioritize the deportation of 1,860 Afghan nationals illegally in the U.S. with final deportation orders. The email said U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and ICE officials are working to ensure Afghan nationals admitted into the U.S. under the Biden administration are properly vetted.

***
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that National Guard troops will soon head to New Orleans and bring another federal surge to the city that is already awaiting a separate immigration crackdown that is expected to begin this week.
Trump did not say how many troops would be sent to New Orleans or exactly when they would arrive. Republican Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who asked the Trump administration in September for up to 1,000 troops to fight crime, told reporters Monday that he expected the Guard to arrive in New Orleans before Christmas.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-says-national-guard-will-sent-new-orleans-couple-weeks-rcna247081

OBSERVATION - ICE entering friendly state territory with a Rep Gov. Will be interesting to see how this goes off. There are reports of potential violent resistance being planned, so the NG forces may have their hands full.

China -

China massing large number of naval vessels in East Asian waters, over 90 vessels as of Thursday morning, the largest show of force from China “to date.” - Reuters

OBSERVATIONS - Could well be the start of another blockade exercise of Taiwan. Great concern when numbers reach this size is that such an ‘exercise’ could turn into the real thing. Historical example was the ‘routine’ Egyptian and Syrian military exercises that resulted in the Yon Kippor war of 1973 which caught Israel off guard. Multiple exercises lulled Israel into a state of ‘oh another one’.

***
President Trump signed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act into law last night which mandates a review of the U.S.-Taiwan interaction guidelines every five years. Taiwan is touting this as a way to have more official diplomatic relations with the U.S. and potentially even visit U.S. federal agencies. China said the U.S. should stop all official interactions with Taiwan.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin: Russia didn’t agree to any of points proposed by U.S. on peace in Ukraine, Russia is not going to join G8 again and will wage war until all of Donbas and “Novorosiya” is under Russian control

ISW. Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials have recently intensified their cognitive warfare efforts that aggrandize battlefield claims to convince the United States that Russia is winning in Ukraine, such that Ukraine and the West should acquiesce to Russian demands now during negotiations.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996459454347547044?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - putin is having the time of his life, jerking the chain of the US and European nations. By this stage, the west should have figured out they are being played and stop the soap opera nonsense. But they cant pass another chance of kicking the football Lucy is holding.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia fired two Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and launched 138 attack drones (about 85 Shaheds) at Ukraine. Air defenses, plus EW units and drone‑hunting teams, intercepted 114 drones. Ballistic hits plus 24 drones struck 14 locations.

Attacks by Russian forces have knocked the Kherson TPP out of operation, the plant suffered heavy damage after waves of drone, artillery, and other strikes. Key facilities and equipment were hit, forcing its shutdown. As a result, 470 buildings and more than 40,500 residents are left without heating.

Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit one of the largest chemical plants in southern Russia tonight, Nevinnomyssky Azot. The plant is one of Russia’s largest producers of ammonia products, and videos posted to social media show it engulfed in flames.

Russian losses per 04/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+3 tanks
+3 ACVs
+29 artillery
+1 MLRS

ISW. Russian forces achieved the tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025, likely in part by concentrating and committing a force grouping comparable in size to the one operating in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction.

This significant force concentration suggests that Russia will likely need to concentrate even more forces and deprioritize other frontline sectors to exploit tactical advances around Hulyaipole and attempt to develop them into operational successes.

The 5th Combined Arms Army’s (CAA) tactical breakthrough north and northeast of Hulyaipole could enable Russian forces to achieve operational successes in both the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996438509670805886?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Note. Facing crossings of the Halchur River on the south and the Vovcha River to the north - both limits current front. Russia has had very poor success at river crossings throughout the war.

***

SW. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996438512619618798?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

Fighting continues to seem to be hitting Russia harder of late. I’ve noticed not only an increase in personnel losses, but equipment - especially artillery. Why is this important? It gives evidence that fog conditions have cleared and FPVs are able to locate and attack these pieces staged away from the front once again. Improvement of flying conditions also boosts the ground troops on the front to hit Russian attacks early and often.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- A body of an Israeli hostage was turned over to Israeli authorities overnight

- Strong airstrikes in retaliation for Hamas attack earlier in the day

- Negotiation on a civil / economic level begin with Lebanon. (Lebanon below)

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

AP: An Israeli official says Israel will open the Rafah crossings for Gazans to leave if they choose, adding that if Egypt chooses not to receive them, that is Egypt’s issue.

***
Israeli aircraft are striking targets in Khan Younis, according to Palestinian reports.
The response comes after Hamas operatives attacked IDF forces in the Rafah area, leaving five Israeli soldiers wounded earlier yesterday.

***
The body of Thai hostage Sudthisak Rinthalak has been returned to Israel and formally identified. Rinthalak was murdered on Oct 7 and his body was held by Islamic Jihad in Gaza for more than two years.

The body of Israel Police officer Ran Gvili remains in Hamas custody.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Houthi terrorist organization has released the crew of the Eternity C cargo ship, reports Reuters. They were reportedly transferred from Yemen to Oman on Wednesday.

The Houthis attacked and sunk the Eternity C in the Red Sea in July, and took 11 of its crew members hostage, including 9 Filipinos, one Russian, and one Indian.

OBSERVATION - Houthi’s remain silent and haven’t messed with any recent shipping.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

One body left and then the process officially moves to Phase 2. That involves full disarmament and removal from power of Hamas. Isn’t going to happen folks. That’s why the isolation plan I posted a couple of days ago is being crafted.

More terrorists hiding out in undetected tunnels - more focus on cleaning up the Yellow Zone. Unconfirmed Israeli reports now suggest another 80 terrorists are holed up in the Zone.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

The UN nuclear watchdog says Iran is still blocking access to key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
These are the same sites damaged in US strikes during the 12-day war.
Tehran suspended cooperation and is now refusing inspectors unless they get special conditions.

OBSERVATION - This group has been essentially worthless over the past decade with Iran granting access whenever and to what ever they wanted, not what the nuclear agreement said.

Iraq -

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are unlikely to attack Savaya due to the potential repercussions that such an action would have on the militias’ domestic political efforts, however, Kaabi threatened that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would “shove a rock down [Savaya’s] mouth” if the United States does not stop his “interference.“ Kaabi also suggested that the Iraqi federal government has adopted “timid and silent stances” toward Savaya.

OBSERVATION - Likely some bravado following the strengthening of Iran backed parties in the recent election.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Civilian representatives from Israel and Lebanon met for the first time in US-mediated discussions aimed at advancing economic cooperation. The Prime Minister’s office said the sides agreed to develop ideas for economic collaboration, while stressing that the disarmament of Hezbollah remains obligatory regardless of any civilian dialogue. Lebanese diplomat Simon Karam, a Maronite Christian and outspoken opponent of Hezbollah, headed the Lebanese team in what Israeli officials described as a breakthrough compared with past negotiations.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/12/04/in-first-ever-civilian-talks-israel-and-lebanon-confront-hezbollahs-grip/

OBSERVATION - Positive news, however, the looming resumption of attacks on Hezbollah are closing in on the horizon. Whether or not these talks are fruitful enough to delay the inevitable is yet to be seen.

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