Heads up. I will not be able to post this coming Sunday thru Wed mornings as usual. Numerous other events that will be taking priority.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NYC - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Nov 30, 2025
Twin Cities region (Minneapolis and St Paul MN) Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Dec 3, 2025
CHANGES - Seattle and the SF Bay area dropped from watch, but things have the potential to flare up. Added the Twin Cities region.
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COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE
(PHASE 2/3 - Military) On Wednesday on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) argued the “uniformed military may help save us from” President Donald Trump.
He added, “Remember, this is an administration that has treated the uniformed military with unprecedented disrespect when they were all brought to get a pep rally in front of Hegseth and Trump. “This is an administration that’s fired, you know, uniform generals from the head of the NSA, the head of the Defense Intelligence agency. I think in many ways, the uniformed military may help save us from this president and his lame people like Hegseth, because I think their commitment is to the Constitution and obviously not to Trump. I expect (Admiral) Bradley to adhere to that.”
OBSERVATION - Since Trump’s reelection, there have been elements within the military higher command that have bristled at having to follow his orders. It is known that some generals and high placed civilians in the Pentagon have set up a group to sabotage Trumps orders. It would not totally surprise me if these elements try to stage a coup in the next three years. The big question is will the lower ranks follow THOSE orders? Reality is, the higher the rank, the more kissing of rear ends of politicians become the standard - politics drives assignments and promotions. There may be enough mid level leadership to follow this path to career termination but almost equally enough that will say no.
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(Phase 1/2 - Military/Police) Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara urged Somalis to call 911 on masked individuals detaining people—clearly referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents—suggesting they might be kidnappers.
“Folks that are masked—when people aren’t sure if they’re law enforcement, or if they may be kidnapping people—we have had those reports. I want to be clear to the community: the community should know that if you see something like that and you don’t know whether someone is law enforcement, you should call 911 and provide as much information as possible,”
O’Hara said.His comments follow reports that a large federal immigration operation is being prepared in Minnesota’s Twin Cities, with more than 100 agents reportedly assigned to target Somalis.
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) reiterated the city’s refusal to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on civil immigration enforcement, reaffirming a long-standing policy that blocks local involvement in federal immigration actions, despite the threat migrant criminals pose to the public.
OBSERVATION - It doesn’t take much to note that the sheriff is setting down a line inferring the ICE actions are ‘kidnappings’ and that he is willing to send deputies to confront ICE and other federal agents conducting legal apprehensions of illegals. Will cooler heads prevail? I really don’t think shooting will break out, but suspect that deputies may show up to ‘document’ any violations, as has been happening in other places, particularly Chicago.
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(PHASE 1/2 - Military / Police) California’s top elected officials announced a new online portal Wednesday with the stated purpose of having members of the public share information with the state’s Department of Justice about “potentially unlawful activity by federal agents and officers across the state.”
Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta issued a press release from the governor’s office, acknowledging that “Federal agents have broad authority to enforce federal laws, including federal immigration laws,” but adding that “they must do so lawfully.”
The portal allows citizens to submit videos and photos to help “create a record of potential unlawful conduct by federal agents, and inform possible legal actions the state may take to protect Californians’ rights.”
OBSERVATION - Further attempts to intimidate federal law enforcement with state level charges for doing their job. More dangerously is that this ‘database’ will also serve as a mechanism to doxx the identities of these agents. Kalifornian leadership essentially has defined any and all arrests of illegals as violating some kind of law as it considers that illegals are “Californians”.
Bonta would do well to prosecute the crimes by his illegal “Californians” and protect real citizens, but he wont.
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(FO) (PHASE 1/2 - Civil Service) During a press conference on Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) hinted that Democrats will pursue federal criminal charges against Trump administration officials and Republicans if Democrats take back the White House in 2028.
“The one thing that should be clear, to all of these Republican extremists and sycophants and the people who are either actively involved in corruption, violating the law, engaged in extrajudicial activity, is that the statute of limitations for any crimes being committed now… will extend well beyond the end of the Trump administration,” Jeffries said
Forward Observer Analysis: Democrats are likely planning to levy federal criminal charges against Trump administration officials if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028. Jeffries appears to be hinting that this could expand to include not only federal employees who do not disrupt the Trump administration, but possibly elected Republicans who do not oppose the Trump administration’s agenda. The likely intent of this threat is to undermine the capacity of the Trump administration by paralyzing the executive branch and deterring political support from Republicans.
MY OBSERVATION - I see Jeffries threat to extend to ALL Trump supporters, in a witch hunt fashion modeled after J6. Its one thing to strike the leadership, but they have to instill fear into the citizenry in order to prevent an election repeat of 2024 - and that means serious suppression.
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(PHASE 1/2 - Business and Military / Police) Illinois state officials warned rental car companies that they could be held legally liable for ICE agents swapping license plates to disguise vehicles. The Illinois Secretary of State sent warning letters to 19 rental car companies and revoked at least one license plate in response to the practice.
OBSERVATION - Sanctuary blue states using every means to inhibit ICE operations. License plate swapping is common and legal for law enforcement actions like ICE. Illinois seeking to chill rental companies from working with ICE.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents apprehended Jaan Shah Safi in Waynesboro, Va., on suspicion of providing support to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan (ISIS-K), according to the Department of Homeland Security. Safi’s arrest makes him the third Afghan national originally brought into the U.S. by a Biden-era evacuation program to be taken into custody in a week.
https://thelibertydaily.com/third-afghan-released-us-under-biden-program-arrested/
OBSERVATION - There are likely thousands more of these terrorists hidden out there.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Payrolls processor ADP reported that private payrolls surprisingly declined by 32,000 in November. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 40,000 for the month. Despite the tough reading, traders were likely betting that the private job losses will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its last meeting of the year next week as a way to rev up the U.S. economy after it’s seen some weakness.
OBSERVATION - Not good news headed into the holiday season selling. As noted, it will be hard for the Fed to justify not lowering the prime rate.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Anyone else notice the absolute silence from the left now that the law to release all Epstine records was passed and signed by Trump . . . . . .
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Attacks continue on Sec War. The left has got to get him out so that planted generals and SCS civilians can retake the pentagon and drive policy and not the WH.
TRUMP Watch –
On the anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine President Trump declared “I am proudly reasserting this time-honored policy.” Trump explains that the remigration policies, naval buildup, Panama Canal negotiations, counternarcotics mission, and trade deals in Latin America are part of the renewed Monroe Doctrine.
OBSERVATION - More than just rhetoric, hostile nations like China, Russia and Iran have wormed their way into key Central and South American nations to essentially set up forward operating bases and intel collection sites. Venezuela is one example of Russian and China influence. Cuba hosting a growing Chinese contingent - with a lot of intel collection assets.
Illegal Immigration –
A NGO headquartered in Minnesota is getting paid $2,375 for every Somalia immigrant they bring into the United States
“Why are Somalians in America? I looked into it — The main group bringing in Somalians is Lutheran Social Services — it turns out they get $2,375 for every Somalian they bring over”
The money is a one-time Reception and Placement grant of $2,425 per refugee (updated from $2,375 in recent years), paid by the State Department to cover immediate arrival costs (e.g., airfare reimbursement, first-month rent, furniture, airport pickup)
Lutheran Social Services is ONE OF 10 national Voluntary Agencies contracted by the U.S. State Department to handle logistics for refugees
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1995530834947047869?t=-gCbg85fh2o-raRZiIc5rQ&s=19
OBSERVATION - I would certainly hope the funding got dried out this year as these numbers reflect older data (some of it 2018)
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(FO) According to an internal email, ICE was ordered to prioritize the deportation of 1,860 Afghan nationals illegally in the U.S. with final deportation orders. The email said U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and ICE officials are working to ensure Afghan nationals admitted into the U.S. under the Biden administration are properly vetted.
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President Donald Trump said Tuesday that National Guard troops will soon head to New Orleans and bring another federal surge to the city that is already awaiting a separate immigration crackdown that is expected to begin this week.
Trump did not say how many troops would be sent to New Orleans or exactly when they would arrive. Republican Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who asked the Trump administration in September for up to 1,000 troops to fight crime, told reporters Monday that he expected the Guard to arrive in New Orleans before Christmas.
OBSERVATION - ICE entering friendly state territory with a Rep Gov. Will be interesting to see how this goes off. There are reports of potential violent resistance being planned, so the NG forces may have their hands full.
China -
China massing large number of naval vessels in East Asian waters, over 90 vessels as of Thursday morning, the largest show of force from China “to date.” - Reuters
OBSERVATIONS - Could well be the start of another blockade exercise of Taiwan. Great concern when numbers reach this size is that such an ‘exercise’ could turn into the real thing. Historical example was the ‘routine’ Egyptian and Syrian military exercises that resulted in the Yon Kippor war of 1973 which caught Israel off guard. Multiple exercises lulled Israel into a state of ‘oh another one’.
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President Trump signed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act into law last night which mandates a review of the U.S.-Taiwan interaction guidelines every five years. Taiwan is touting this as a way to have more official diplomatic relations with the U.S. and potentially even visit U.S. federal agencies. China said the U.S. should stop all official interactions with Taiwan.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin: Russia didn’t agree to any of points proposed by U.S. on peace in Ukraine, Russia is not going to join G8 again and will wage war until all of Donbas and “Novorosiya” is under Russian control
ISW. Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials have recently intensified their cognitive warfare efforts that aggrandize battlefield claims to convince the United States that Russia is winning in Ukraine, such that Ukraine and the West should acquiesce to Russian demands now during negotiations.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996459454347547044?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - putin is having the time of his life, jerking the chain of the US and European nations. By this stage, the west should have figured out they are being played and stop the soap opera nonsense. But they cant pass another chance of kicking the football Lucy is holding.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 degree range, mostly cloudy. Cooling into the 20s by weeks end
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia fired two Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and launched 138 attack drones (about 85 Shaheds) at Ukraine. Air defenses, plus EW units and drone‑hunting teams, intercepted 114 drones. Ballistic hits plus 24 drones struck 14 locations.
Attacks by Russian forces have knocked the Kherson TPP out of operation, the plant suffered heavy damage after waves of drone, artillery, and other strikes. Key facilities and equipment were hit, forcing its shutdown. As a result, 470 buildings and more than 40,500 residents are left without heating.
Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit one of the largest chemical plants in southern Russia tonight, Nevinnomyssky Azot. The plant is one of Russia’s largest producers of ammonia products, and videos posted to social media show it engulfed in flames.
Russian losses per 04/12/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1140 men
+3 tanks
+3 ACVs
+29 artillery
+1 MLRS
ISW. Russian forces achieved the tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025, likely in part by concentrating and committing a force grouping comparable in size to the one operating in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction.
This significant force concentration suggests that Russia will likely need to concentrate even more forces and deprioritize other frontline sectors to exploit tactical advances around Hulyaipole and attempt to develop them into operational successes.
The 5th Combined Arms Army’s (CAA) tactical breakthrough north and northeast of Hulyaipole could enable Russian forces to achieve operational successes in both the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996438509670805886?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Note. Facing crossings of the Halchur River on the south and the Vovcha River to the north - both limits current front. Russia has had very poor success at river crossings throughout the war.
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SW. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1996438512619618798?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Analysis and Future Operations —
Fighting continues to seem to be hitting Russia harder of late. I’ve noticed not only an increase in personnel losses, but equipment - especially artillery. Why is this important? It gives evidence that fog conditions have cleared and FPVs are able to locate and attack these pieces staged away from the front once again. Improvement of flying conditions also boosts the ground troops on the front to hit Russian attacks early and often.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- A body of an Israeli hostage was turned over to Israeli authorities overnight
- Strong airstrikes in retaliation for Hamas attack earlier in the day
- Negotiation on a civil / economic level begin with Lebanon. (Lebanon below)
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
AP: An Israeli official says Israel will open the Rafah crossings for Gazans to leave if they choose, adding that if Egypt chooses not to receive them, that is Egypt’s issue.
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Israeli aircraft are striking targets in Khan Younis, according to Palestinian reports.
The response comes after Hamas operatives attacked IDF forces in the Rafah area, leaving five Israeli soldiers wounded earlier yesterday.
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The body of Thai hostage Sudthisak Rinthalak has been returned to Israel and formally identified. Rinthalak was murdered on Oct 7 and his body was held by Islamic Jihad in Gaza for more than two years.
The body of Israel Police officer Ran Gvili remains in Hamas custody.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthi terrorist organization has released the crew of the Eternity C cargo ship, reports Reuters. They were reportedly transferred from Yemen to Oman on Wednesday.
The Houthis attacked and sunk the Eternity C in the Red Sea in July, and took 11 of its crew members hostage, including 9 Filipinos, one Russian, and one Indian.
OBSERVATION - Houthi’s remain silent and haven’t messed with any recent shipping.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
One body left and then the process officially moves to Phase 2. That involves full disarmament and removal from power of Hamas. Isn’t going to happen folks. That’s why the isolation plan I posted a couple of days ago is being crafted.
More terrorists hiding out in undetected tunnels - more focus on cleaning up the Yellow Zone. Unconfirmed Israeli reports now suggest another 80 terrorists are holed up in the Zone.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
The UN nuclear watchdog says Iran is still blocking access to key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
These are the same sites damaged in US strikes during the 12-day war.
Tehran suspended cooperation and is now refusing inspectors unless they get special conditions.
OBSERVATION - This group has been essentially worthless over the past decade with Iran granting access whenever and to what ever they wanted, not what the nuclear agreement said.
Iraq -
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are unlikely to attack Savaya due to the potential repercussions that such an action would have on the militias’ domestic political efforts, however, Kaabi threatened that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would “shove a rock down [Savaya’s] mouth” if the United States does not stop his “interference.“ Kaabi also suggested that the Iraqi federal government has adopted “timid and silent stances” toward Savaya.
OBSERVATION - Likely some bravado following the strengthening of Iran backed parties in the recent election.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Civilian representatives from Israel and Lebanon met for the first time in US-mediated discussions aimed at advancing economic cooperation. The Prime Minister’s office said the sides agreed to develop ideas for economic collaboration, while stressing that the disarmament of Hezbollah remains obligatory regardless of any civilian dialogue. Lebanese diplomat Simon Karam, a Maronite Christian and outspoken opponent of Hezbollah, headed the Lebanese team in what Israeli officials described as a breakthrough compared with past negotiations.
OBSERVATION - Positive news, however, the looming resumption of attacks on Hezbollah are closing in on the horizon. Whether or not these talks are fruitful enough to delay the inevitable is yet to be seen.
Thanks for your work Godzilla.
I hope your time off involves lots of fun.