CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott. Ongoing
***
Weekend Forecast - Leftists moving forward on their “Mass Blackout”, there are no components of violence expected to he associated with it.
There have been reports of local attempts to physically block stores.
Other weekly sign waving and shouting events scheduled across the country. Low potential for violence unless local conditions change. Continued Antifa and related protests / low grade riots at ICE facilities noted above as well as any other developing active areas surges are occurring.
As alway, unforeseen events could trigger the leftists to surge in response. Keep abreast of local news.
***
COLOR REVOLUTION UPDATE
(PHASE 1/2, Civil and Miitary/police) Judge Boasberg gives Trump admin one week to file affidavits from all officials involved in decision to carry out Alien Enemies Act deportation to El Salvador despite Boasberg’s order to turn the planes around. ‘Contempt prosecution’ could follow
OBSERVATION - Boasberg has resumed his assault on Executive powers. Appeals and USSC has already ruled he has zero jurisdiction over immigration policies and that the deportations were allowable. He has become the Sen Kelly ‘FACE’ to the growing color revolution in the judiciary branch.
***
Mosab Hassan Yousef has seen how terrorist movements build from the inside, as he grew up the son of one of Hamas’s co-founders. Now he’s warning that jihadis are putting the same destructive game plan that turned Gaza into an Islamic terrorist cesspool into action in the United States.
Yousef began, “From the inside, it looks innocent — just kids at summer camps, families at mosques, neighbors sharing meals. But growing up in the West Bank, I saw only what few did: my father, Sheikh Hassan Yousef, wasn’t just a community leader. He was one of the architects of the Muslim Brotherhood’s project in the territories — a project that would birth Hamas. I was there in our living room when Sheikh Ahmad Yassin came from Gaza to plan with him. Not bombs. Not yet. Just schools, charities, mosques, research institutions. Building trust. Indoctrinating a generation. Waiting.”
OBSERVATION - Radical Islam as a factor in any CW2 scenario can operate out side of the current Color Revolution developing by the left. Opportunistic, in many instances it partners up with Antifa, democrat socialists, et al. But as Yousef continually notes, Islam sees itself as the ultimate ruler over socialists and other leftists - they are just pawns, useful idiots.
Of particular note is the concept of concentration of islamic imigration - setting up power bases that can progressively move outward and multiply to force islamic law and submission bit by bit. Dearborn MI case in point. Other sites in Texas, Illinois, NY etc are growing as well.
How islam will play in the Color Revolution perhaps as the violent sector? Haven’t fit this piece of the jigsaw puzzle yet. But on its own, its growing into its own serious threat.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
A Virginia high school principal and his brother were arrested for allegedly planning to carry out a heinous attack involving firearms and explosives to kill US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Wednesday.
John Wilson Bennett, and his brother Mark Booth Bennett, have each been charged with conspiracy to commit malicious wounding. According to DHS, the pair was overheard by Virginia state police officers on November 17 discussing alleged plans to “kill police officers and ICE agents.” Additionally, Mark was allegedly overheard stating his intention to meet with like-minded individuals in Las Vegas, Nevada, to purchase firearms with explosive rounds to carry out the killings, according to the press release.
OBSERVATION - In some ways parallel Color Revolution goals by stoking violence. This is the fruit of the constant propaganda spewed by congressional and other leaders on the left and amplified by the MSM.
***
Rahmanullah Lakanwal - continuing
“Working with the United States Attorney’s offices here at the Department of Justice and prosecutors across the country, we were able to serve search warrants literally overnight and through the night,” FBI Director Kath Patel said Thursday morning.
He added:
We were able to hit the house in Washington State. During that process, we seized numerous electronic devices, to include cell phones, laptops, iPads and other material that is being analyzed as we speak. Pursuant to that investigation and any known associates of the subject and of that house is how we ended up in San Diego, where interviews were conducted and are going to be continued to be conducted.
“We will go anywhere in the country or the world where the evidence leads us,” Patel said, adding:
There are unconfirmed reports that the FBI found pro-Taliban propaganda and “jihad against American soldiers” searches on his devices
OBSERVATION - Components of a lone wolf, nested in receiving radicalization and a push to target NG. Again, why drive across the country when deployed NG are in Oregon and Washington state?
Meanwhile, contrary to the evidence so far, the MSM is trying to portray him as a poor immigrant with little to his name. Right
Also being remembered are the attacks on US forces that these afghan “allies” perpetuated, informing Taliban of operations and security.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Black Friday numbers being crunched and we won’t likely see any initial figures until Monday at the earliest.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Suddenly, democrats have the orders for all Epstine files to be released and suddenly there is silence from the left.
More fallout from the Seditious Six and documented linkage to a wider, subversive plan - See CW2 in recent posts on Color Revolution.
With the death of the Specialist, will the MSM continue to try to blame Trump and the presence of NG in DC for the death, or will they try to let that spin down?
TRUMP Watch –
Trump announced the termination of all presidential orders signed by Biden using the “automatic pen,” which are actually most of the orders and documents approved during the previous administration
Among those autopen orders is the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson
OBSERVATION - Rumbling for the past several months, the volcano is entering the eruption phase with guaranteed titanic court fights. I read somewhere that this could affect upwards of 80% of biden’s actions. Needs clear documentation that these ‘signatures’ were done without biden’s authorization - documents released over the summer indicate this being case.
Illegal Immigration –
The Trump administration is working toward cutting illegal migrants off from federal tax benefits and money transfer services, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday.
“At [President Trump’s] direction, we are working to cut off federal benefits to illegal aliens and preserve them for U.S. citizens,” Bessent wrote on X.
As part of the effort, the Treasury Department will propose new regulations “clarifying that the refunded portions of certain individual income tax benefits are no longer available to illegal and other non-qualified aliens, covering the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Additional Child Tax Credit, the American Opportunity Tax Credit, and the Saver’s Match Credit,” according to the the Trump administration official.
OBSERVATION - Financial incentives is one of the strongest motivators of the recent flood of illegals. They’ve been able to suck billions of dollars out of the federal budget as well as the economy in general. You take away the money and incentives, you take away the ability to sponge off the system. Coupled with deportations and arrests, this will encourage many to self deport.
***
Customs and Border Protection forces have left Chicago, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is still taking criminal illegals off the streets of the Windy City.
ICE noted that it has not put a halt to its mission of arresting dangerous criminal illegals “despite resistance from activists and sanctuary politicians like Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson,” the agency said in a press release.
RELATED
(FO) Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) said she was informed that ICE is planning to triple its staffing levels at the Broadview, IL ICE facility by January 2026 ahead of a second surge. Underwood said ICE is also planning to expand its office space in the city.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia does not recognize the US-proposed peace plan as a serious agreement and indicated that Russia is not interested in ending the war on the Trump administration’s desired rapid timeline.
Putin reiterated that Russia cannot sign any peace or other agreements with the current or future Ukrainian government and reiterated accusations that any Ukrainian government not under the Kremlin’s control is illegitimate, another clear rejection of the US peace proposal.
Putin demanded Ukraine’s withdrawal from unoccupied parts of illegally annexed Ukrainian regions as a precondition for a ceasefire, not a peace deal. Such a concession would force Ukraine to withdraw to lines that are indefensible against renewed Russian aggression and would consign millions of Ukrainians to life under Russian occupation, therefore failing to guarantee a lasting peace.
Putin also demanded that the international community recognize Russia’s territorial conquests in Ukraine, likely to set legal grounds to justify a reinvasion of Ukraine at the opportune time.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994656800965075050?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Lucy/football
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv. Cruise and ballistic missiles, including Kalibrs and possible Kinzhal, struck residential areas and energy infrastructure. Explosions hit Nivky, Solomianskyi, and nearby Vyshneve. A child was injured, and western Kyiv is without power
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight combined missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
558/596 Shahed and other type drones
1/5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
12/23 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles
4/4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
2/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
The Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, was attacked by Ukraine last night. The facility, frequently used in Russia’s military supply chain, has been targeted multiple times throughout the war.
An energy facility in Kazan, southwestern Russia, was reportedly hit in a Ukrainian strike last night. A substation exploded, causing a blackout across parts of the city.
Russian losses per 29/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+910 men
+1 tank
+15 ACVs
+3 artillery
ISW. The frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse despite recent Russian gains and Kremlin assertions.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994656800965075050?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Russian Territory –
Two Russian oil tankers were attacked and set on fire in the Black Sea. Ukrainian forces used Sea Baby naval drones in the attack. Both tankers are on the sanctions listing and are part of the “shadow” fleet.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Though Ukraine has been successfully hitting Russian targets over the past months, Russia by shear volume continues to smash into Ukraine. The latest being one of the largest in the past couple months. Targets being power/heat, unspecified military and civilian (terror).
Eyes continue to be primarily on Pokrovsk, but Russian forces appear to be stalled sealing the deal. OSINT I’ve seen roughly suggests that Russia is attempting to penetrate deeper on the north and south to better interdict Ukraine supplies to the city, rather that continue frontal assaults (which may resume if they are successful in cutting off resupply).
Poland –
Eastern Polish airspace shut down over night as NATO aircraft scrambled to meet any threats posed by Russia’s drone and cruise missile raid on Ukraine. There have been reports that a number of Russian drone penetrated into Polish airspace.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Remarkably mostly on the quiet side. Some action in Lebanon and some strikes in Gaza, but nothing substantially noteworthy.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Actions pretty much constant with spikes in activity . The big future event is resumption of intense air strikes and likely ground active in S Lebanon. It is highly unlikely IMHO Lebanon will do much more against Hezbollah, so Israel will be free soon to resume taking it apart. More under Lebanon.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Petrol is going to become more expensive for many motorists in Iran, as from December 6 they will have to pay higher prices at gas stations if they use more than 160 liters a month.
The fossil fuel is heavily subsidized in Iran, where gasoline offered to consumers is the cheapest globally. The Middle Eastern country also has the fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-biggest natural gas reserves in the world.
In recent decades, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has massively expanded its economic influence and become closely intertwined with the country’s oil and gas industry.
“As long as these problems remain unresolved, the state will shift the burden onto the population without implementing any far-reaching reforms,” Jamshid Assadi, an expert on the Iranian economy warned.
OBSERVATION - The last time Iran jacked gasoline prices up, riots broke out in parts of the country. Now with drought and persistent power outages / shortages while the regime pushes to rebuild its military and nuclear programs, the masses may be poked into another round of protests.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Hezbollah threatens Israel that it will retaliate for the taking out of its #2 leader at a time and place of its choosing.
Central / South America General-
Peru will declare a state of emergency along its border with Chile, President José Jerí said on Friday, as migrants seek to cross into the country following a Chilean presidential frontrunner’s vow to expel undocumented migrants.
Honduras is set to have national elections tomorrow. Trend is leaning towards hand picked leftist candidates with a heaping dose of fraud.
If I close one eye and squint “John Wilson Bennett, and his brother Mark Booth Bennett,” blurs to John Wilkes Booth Benedict (Arnold)...
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NYC - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Nov 30, 2025
DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott. Ongoing
***
Weekend Forecast - “Mass Blackout” continues. Several potential protest related reports of local attempts to physically block stores.
Other weekly sign waving and shouting events scheduled across the country. Low potential for violence unless local conditions change.
Continued Antifa and related protests / low grade riots at ICE facilities noted above as well as any other developing active areas surges are occurring.
As alway, unforeseen events could trigger the leftists to surge in response. Keep abreast of local news.
***
NYC (Nov. 29) — Open border extremists rioted in the street to try to shut down and block immigration officials. Rioters used Antifa style tactics to tear up private property to construct barricades to prevent ICE from exiting a parking structure. l
OBSERVATION - They face little to no consequence for their actions by local prosecutors as do so many other criminals in NYC.
Intensity and growth of violence warranted establishment of a Local Threat Level - ADVISORY notification.
***
PHILADELPHIA: Masked pro-Hamas protesters burned dozens of U.S. flags outside City Hall — Palestinian flags waving above the flames as crowds filmed and chanted.
- Around 400 marched through Center City
- Scuffles with police & vandalism reported
- Several arrests
- Hezbollah & Hamas symbols openly displayed
OBSERVATION - May have some rooting in the assassination of two NG soldiers by an Afghani refugee. Timing may also be based upon the start of the Christmas shopping season and islamic attempts to suppress any celebration of the season by Christians and Jews.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Another Afghan national brought to the U.S. under the same operation as the National Guard shooter has been arrested and charged with making a terroristic threat.
Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, who gained permanent resident status in 2022 through Operation Allies Welcome, was arrested Tuesday after posting a video on TikTok indicating he was building a bomb to target the Fort Worth area.
Of special note, he was listed as “white” in the booking records.
OBSERVATION - We don’t need to make arguments that these unvetted foreigners are a threat to our country. Their actions are making it for us.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States has deployed, installed, and activated a long-range, phased-array, military, radar at a main airport in Trinidad & Tobago. It covers the entire Venezuela coastline and deep inside the country.
The AN/TPS-80 G/ATOR is a multi-mission radar system for the U.S. Marine Corps that can perform air surveillance, air defense, air traffic control, and ground weapon locating.
OBSERVATION - Another key command and control feature that speaks to the ability to conduct a very intense military operation against Venezuela should the word be given.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Trump may be angling to nullify DEI judge appointments made by the Biden White House, as the Biden DID NOT sign their commissions as required by law
DEI Justice Ketanji Brown-Jackson could be in danger of losing her seat, for example.
Statutes dating back to 1792 (1 Stat. 281) and still in force (28 U.S.C. § 172, 5 U.S.C. § 2902, and others) require that commissions be “signed by the President” and “sealed with the Great Seal.”
If a staffer used the autopen to “sign” Biden’s name without his authorization on the commission for Article III judges, the argument can (and should) be made that their rulings are not enforceable.
OBSERVATION - Part of this analysis suggests that biden had no idea or approval of these selection in general. Making a case against KBJ would be hard because of the many public pronouncements by biden of her being his choice. The technicality would be in using autopen versus physical signature.
But the autopen scandal, as noted before, extends far beyond this aspect, into pardons, and other executive actions that now could be considered null and void. This day has been coming and now it is here.
Illegal Immigration –
The Treasury Department published a memo warning that they will now be seizing any and all remittances sent abroad by illegals.
As part of his escalating crackdown on illegals, President Trump’s Treasury has issued a memo stating it will begin seizing remittances sent abroad by illegal aliens, with all suspicious transactions over $2,000 to be flagged.
pic.twitter.com/a2h2xQG9R1
OBSERVATION - Illegals sending remittances to out of nation ‘family and friends’ has long been a problem as millions (billions) of dollars have left the economy via that route. Shutting this off would reportedly create havoc in the economy of Mexico, for instance, given that the inflow of US money has a huge impact on spending (or money available for spending). Same to for other Central/South American countries, to varying degrees. Once again, stripping a financial incentive from the illegals and making them vulnerable to arrest will create more leverage to self deport.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Economic Impact –
Putin has signed Russia’s 2026 budget, allocating at least $166 billion to the war against Ukraine, one-third of all spending and the highest military outlay since the Soviet era. To fund it, Russia slashed social programs.
OBSERVATION - This budget is also loaded with a lot of tax increases boost funding. Given the amount of funding and the glacial advance pace in Ukraine, the Russia people are not getting much for their money and pretty soon it will bounce back against putin.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.
RUMINT –
Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, put it to the Ukrainian leadership that their country’s long-term interests would be better served by a tariff relief rather than long-range Tomahawk missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.
This comes days after a Bloomberg News report that Witkoff told Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide that the two should work together on a ceasefire plan for Ukraine and that Putin should raise it with Trump.
OBSERVATION - WTH, Witkoff is becoming a Russian asset.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 122 attack drones and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 104 drones, including Shaheds and Geran variants. Hits from 18 drones and both missiles were recorded across 13 locations. Debris fell in 2 more.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones once again attacked energy infrastructure in occupied Donetsk region. Several explosions were reported, as well as power outages across the region.
Russian losses per 30/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1160 men
+5 tanks
+14 ACVs
+7 artillery
+2 MLRS
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia appearing to making another push from the north after a few days of relative inactivity.
***
(NOTE - this is another analysts view/report of actions around Pokrovsk. While containing a hint of propaganda, views seemingly are parallel to other analysts)
POKROVSK: UKR forces have inflicted stinging defeats on Russian troops over the past 48 hours, frustrating Moscow’s long-running bid to capture the city.
Despite dense fog and a 15-to-1 numerical disadvantage, UKR defenders repulsed more than two dozen Russian assaults, reclaimed contested city blocks along the Donetska Railway, and kept vital supply lines open to Myrnohrad.
UKR Airborne troops and SOF , backed by relentless FPV-drone strikes, destroyed three Russian BMPs, wiped out a company-sized assault near Rodynske, (north of Pokrovsk) and killed or wounded an estimated 400 attackers across the sector.
Precision F-16 raids obliterated a Russian command post and drone launch site in the rear. Ukrainian commanders say aggressive counter-attacks and interdicted Ru logistics have turned Pokrovsk into a graveyard for Russian momentum.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Indicators suggest that the fight for Pokrovsk is anything but over.
A point I made a while ago is more pertinent now. Russian ‘assaults’ have withered to small squad and maybe platoon infiltration attempts. Russia is unable to mount larger unit attacks due to personal and equipment shortages. Any movement of tanks/armor get swarmed by drones almost immediately and inspire of the creativeness of Russian designs to protect them, they get disabled and destroyed anyway. Coordination between adjacent units is also lacking. Russia throws small units of men into conflict with little more than hope that the fog holds out.
“Modern” warfare states that forces should be concentrated for a breakthrough with follow-on forces moving quickly behind to exploit any successes. That hasn’t been seen by Russians since early periods of the war, when they still had a lot of tanks and armored vehicles.
This all comes around to say that, though Russia has a degree of initiative in Pokrovsk, they are doing so at great cost.
Finally, the more I read about Witkoff and his negotiating blunders, the madder I get. He is clueless should these reports be verified. Tariff relief will mean nothing if your country is ruled by Russia. And if, as it appears, he is in essence operating as an agent for Russia, he needs to be dumped ASAP.
Europe / NATO General –
ISW. Lithuanian authorities reported on November 29 that they detected over 60 balloons flying into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus overnight and that an unspecified number of balloons forced the Vilnius International Airport to temporarily suspend operations in the early morning of November 29, impacting 22 flights and 3,000 travelers. Aerial incursions have forced Vilnius International Airport to suspend operations several times in recent months.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and the ongoing Russian airspace violations are likely part of “Phase Zero” — Russia’s broader informational and psychological condition-setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
Belarus is Russia’s de facto cobelligerent in the war in Ukraine, thus, Belarusian incursions into NATO airspace
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1994994805256949855?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Not directly identified, the launching sites for these balloons is Belarus.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas continues to be reduced in Gaza, both inside and out of the Yellow Zone.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Rafah: 3-4 militants were killed while trying to escape from a tunnel in Jenin district of Rafah. Israeli army forces this morning identified a number of militants who were trying to escape from an underground tunnel in the Jenin neighborhood in Rafah. An aircraft attacked the cell, and it is estimated that between three and four militants were killed. Israeli army forces are currently conducting scans of the area in order to locate the bodies, identify the dead, and check whether among those killed are also Hamas commanders who were involved in managing the underground operation.
https://t.me/yediotnews25/114073
***
Israel launches a series of airstrikes on the city of Rafah, Shuja’iyya neighborhood in Gaza City, and in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli forces launched a campaign of raids and arrests during a raid on the town of Al-Zawiya in the city of Salfit at dawn today.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Intensity of IDF actions in Gaza remain at a relatively low level. IDF methodically eliminating Hamas when they get identified and located. I suspect that the level of action is concurrent with Trump’s desire to get an international force together to disarm Hamas. How long Trump/Israel will let that float is uncertain. Given that Hamas absolutely refuses to disarm will require a pretty substantial and experienced combat force - and few nations want to step up for that mission.
Clock continues to tick on expanded operations against Hezbollah.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran just launched a ballistic missile from its western Ilam province.
Target: Iraqi Kurdistan
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards: “The Iranian Air Force recently attacked bases loyal to Israel in the Iraq area and attacked military positions of armed Kurdish militias carrying out actions for Israel”
In previous cases Iran blamed Iraqi Kurdistan to be a base of an Israeli Mossad station
This is the first time since the 12-day war in June that Iran has launched ballistic missiles not as a test, but as an actual strike.
OBSERVATION - Some analysts are saying that this is part of the effort by Iran to rebuild its “tough guy” image in the region.
***
Anti-regime protests erupted again in Iran, this time in Qir and Karzin County, Fars Province. Iranian protesters fought back against the Islamist regime’s oppressive security forces, forcing them to retreat after stones were thrown. The protests began when regime agents attempted to confiscate citizens’ vehicles, prompting locals to resist and spark the protests. Videos of the confrontation have gone viral on Iranian social media, with calls for other cities to join and for a new uprising against the totalitarian regime.
OBSERVATION - The general public is increasingly oppressed and the fuse is short. I have no understanding why the regime would try to confiscate private vehicles, unless it is to bolster their supply lost in the 12 day war.
***
Iranian state news agency IRNA reported yesterday that electricity production has been stopped at Kharkheh Dam, the largest earthen dam in the Middle East and one of the largest in the world, due to a “decrease in the reservoir’s water levels.”
OBSERVATIONS - It has reached what is called zero pool. Double hit, no power and no drinking water.
Iraq -
Patriotic Iraqi Shia Movement/PSM political party leader Muqtada Al Sadr refuses to discuss what his group wants. Since the national elections on November 11, Sadr’s party has aligned itself with factions that control 137 of the 329 parliamentary seats. While that’s only 42 percent of the seats, adding a few more small factions could give Sadr a chance to form a new government. The current government is led by Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who is no friend of Sadr and will have to make deals with several factions to hold onto his job. Sudani also wants to maintain good relations with the United States and continued assurances of American assistance in dealing with an increasingly unstable and aggressive Iran. While Iran maintains outwardly peaceful relations with Iraq, that could change if the new Iraqi government goes through with a plan to disarm the pro-Iran PMF/ Popular Mobilization Forces militia. Iran sees this as another effort by Israel and the Americans to curb Iranian power in the reg
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/2025113055332.aspx#gsc.tab=0
OBSERVATION - Sadr continues to play a big role in Iraqi politics, even though largely sitting the latest election out on the sideline. Though Sadr’s alliance religiously is linked to Iran, they maintain a relative strong independence streak from Iran and the US as well.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Trump inferred that he was shutting down Venezuelan airspace “in its entirety” amid a surge in drug trafficking from the South American nation, he announced Saturday morning.
“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Trump wrote in a morning Truth Social post.
OBSERVATION - No orders reportedly have been given, but the inference is enough to put further pressure on the Madaro govt and keep the PSYOPS level high.
Should the US choose to attack land based Venezuelan sites, the most probable scenario would be air strikes and missiles. Boots on the ground one of the least likely, early scenarios.
We have a good supply of Marines in the region and the 82d Abn just a short flight away, but I think the last thing Trump wants is the potential for US ground forces to get bogged down in action and have casualties that the left will pounce upon here in the States.
Central / South America General-
The Dominican Republic has agreed to allow U.S. forces restricted access for refueling and logistical operations, including KC-135 tanker aircraft for maritime patrols and C-130 Hercules cargo planes for disaster relief and reconnaissance.
Dominican President Luis Abinader emphasized the temporary nature of the deal, citing a tenfold increase in drug seizures due to U.S. collaboration. However, critics suspect broader geopolitical motives, particularly against Venezuela.
Misc of Note –
La Niña, associated with cool water over the tropical Pacific, has a significant impact on Northwest weather, influencing temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.
As described below, La Niña has strengthened recently, and some decidedly La Niña weather is now in the forecasts.
According to the latest observations, we are about to transition from a weak to a moderate La Niña. (Previous forecasts did not indicate a transition)
La Niña winters tend to be associated with an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and associated cold northerly flow over the Northwest. La Niña winters tend to be cooler than normal over the Northwest, generally with more snow than typical.
OBSERVATION - While still largely in the tea leaves stage, weather forecasters have an abundance of historic data from which to base their predictions on. A strengthening La Nina will make for an interesting winter season. Check your winter preps. Monitor for severe weather as forecasts become more shorter ranged and accurate.