After a balmy fall, weather realities fast approaching the Redoubt with lows in the single digits (maybe even sub zero) forecast for the end of the month. Wee doggies.
Globalism / Great Reset –
COP30 climate talks evacuated after fire breaks out
Georgina Rannard and BBC climate team in Belém, Brazil
…
The talks were in the final hours of trying to agree on next steps to tackle climate but the fire has disrupted negotiations.
“It was climbing the walls and onto the ceiling. People were screaming,” Dr Harshita Umesh, who was giving a talk next to the place where they fire broke out, told BBC News.
“Then I ran, I think I tripped and fell.”
…
“People are pretty traumatised and shocked,” she added.
“There’s a huge panic, people have been running out of here, it’s a very dramatic moment… UN security guards are telling us to leave,” said BBC Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt.
“It looks actually as if they are beginning to get it under control but you can see huge columns of smoke rising up into the air through the hole that’s been burnt in the top of the conference centre.”
…
One eyewitness told the BBC that he believes an electrical fire was the cause.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/20/did-a-battery-fire-just-kill-the-cop30-climate-conference/
OBSERVATIONS - Some reports suggest that a battery (lithium?) was the source of the fire. Oh the irony.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
Weekend Forecast - Announced demonstrations in DC by “Removal Coalition”, do not appear to be mobilizing many at this stage.
Elsewhere, same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.
Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (not change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.
***
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt told Newsmax that Democrats trying to prompt military service personnel to ignore orders from President Donald Trump amounts to “treason.”
He said this needs to be stopped immediately. “And here’s the warning for the Trump administration. If you don’t hold them accountable here, this is only going to get worse.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/blaine-holt-treason-sedition/2025/11/20/id/1235432/
OBSERVATION - This general nails it. If these six democrats walk without any serious pushback or at minimum sanctions, democrats will become more aggressive. In the case of Kelly, UCMJ should fully drop down on him.
ADDITIONAL - Per 18 USC § 2387:
Whoever, with intent to interfere with, impair, or influence the loyalty, morale, or discipline of the military or naval forces of the United States:
(1)advises, counsels, urges, or in any manner causes or attempts to cause insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military or naval forces of the United States; or
(2)distributes or attempts to distribute any written or printed matter which advises, counsels, or urges insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military or naval forces of the United States—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both, and shall be ineligible for employment by the United States or any department or agency thereof, for the five years next following his conviction.
***
Evidence is mounting that the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) is not just a civil-rights organization supporting student protests but part of a larger, coordinated network with ties to Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other terrorist organizations. This network is paying cash rewards to students who face disciplinary action for engaging in anti-Israel protests on American campuses.
A New York Post investigation uncovered that CAIR-California paid $1,000 to students suspended, arrested, or losing housing or scholarships for their involvement in disruptive anti-Israel activism. Through its “Champions of Justice Fund,” CAIR allocated $20,000 to students leading actions such as building takeovers, blockades, and confrontations with Jewish students. These financial incentives appear designed to encourage more militant actions. As Joel Finkelstein, founder of the NCRI, explained, the payments reward “criminality and violence,” creating a structure for escalating confrontations.
OBSERVATION - Recent moslem extremism has resurrected CAIR which has been relatively dormant for many years. Follow the money, probably leads to Soros based NGO as well as terror nations like Iran and Qatar.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
For the first time in U.S. history, arrested violent far-left defendants have admitted in federal court to being members of an organized Antifa terror cell. Seth Sikes, Joy Abigail Gibson, Lynette Read Sharp, Nathan Baumann, and John Phillip Thomas — pleaded guilty to providing material support to terrorists and being part of an Antifa cell in a July 4 ambush attack on the Prairieland ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1991684689833480585?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - How much this will do to chill Antifa violence in the future is uncertain. What is clear is that they are losing the freedom of movement in the legal realm, having dodged numerous other law suits since 2016.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. employers added a surprisingly solid 119,000 jobs in September, the government said, issuing a key economic report that had been delayed for seven weeks by the federal government shutdown.
The increase in payrolls was more than double the 50,000 economists had forecast.
OBSERVATION - Good news, but there are bumps too
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the personal phone records of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan in 2022, seeking the Ohio Republican’s phone data covering a more than two-year period.
The subpoena, obtained by Fox News Digital, shows a federal prosecutor who later worked on special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 investigation ordered Verizon to hand over the phone data, also known as toll records, reaching back to Jan. 1, 2020.
The request appears to be the most expansive yet of the publicly known subpoenas targeting senators and current and former House members during Arctic Frost, the investigation that led to Smith bringing election-related charges against President Donald Trump.
Smith did not begin working as special counsel until seven months after the subpoena was issued, meaning the request pre-dated his time at the DOJ.
The subpoena for Jordan’s records appears to be one of the first known ones in the Arctic Frost probe and was issued during a time when Jordan was serving as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, which conducts oversight of the DOJ.
OBSERVATION - People from the biden regime need jail time for this. This kind of stuff has only been seen in communist dictatorships and is the stuff revolutions are made from.
***
A federal judge ruled today that Trump’s deployment of the National Guard troops to Washington, DC was illegal.
U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb said that while Trump may be the commander in chief of the Guard, his power is constrained by federal laws that limit how those troops can be federalized and deployed, particularly in Washington, D.C., which is controlled by Congress.
“The Court rejects Defendants’ fly-by assertion of constitutional power, finding that such a broad reading of the President’s Article II authority would erase Congress’s role in governing the District and its National Guard,” Cobb wrote in a 61-page ruling.
OBSERVATION - Another ruling by an activist judge that is going to be overturned on appeal.
***
The DNC took out a $15 million loan in October, the latest sign of financial distress for the official arm of the Democratic Party.
The party ended the month with $18.3 million in the bank — $15 million of which came from the loan.
OBSERVATION - Is this evidence that the cutoff USAID funding has hit the DNC coffers hard?
TRUMP Watch –
ABC News might soon find itself staring down another expensive defamation lawsuit from President Trump, and honestly, it wouldn’t come as a shock. On a recent episode of The View, Joy Behar confidently claimed that it was “obvious” Trump was a pedophile connected with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, implicating him in Epstein’s crimes. This wild accusation came without a shred of evidence tying Trump to Epstein’s criminal activities. In fact, Trump is arguably one of the few prominent figures who did the right thing and severed ties with Epstein years ago, unlike many Democrats who have since been ensnared in the fallout.
OBSERVATION - ABC and the hags at the ‘view’ just can’t keep their mouths shut. And its likely to cost them, again.
Illegal Immigration –
Last Wednesday, US District Court Judge Jeffrey Cummings ordered the Trump administration to release on $1,500 bond hundreds of detainees after he determined the arrests violated a local consent decree barring warrantless arrests of immigrants.
The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday sided with the Trump administration to keep those on the list in custody, just one day before detainees were set to be released.
Though the appeals court did not explain why it sided with the Trump administration in the detention case, its decision comes just a day after a three-judge panel with the 7th Circuit blocked a different judge’s order because they believed the judge had overstepped their authority by imposing strict limits on how federal agents could operate in Chicago.
OBSERVATION - Some sanity at the 7th Circuit Court.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia has said it is yet to receive anything official from the US on its peace plan, after Ukraine’s Volodymr Zelensky said he was ready to work with the Trump administration on its “vision” to bring an end to the war.
The widely leaked US plan includes proposals that Kyiv had previously ruled out, such as ceding areas of the eastern Donetsk region that it still controls, reducing its army in size, and pledging not to join Nato.
Russian officials continue to reiterating their commitment to Russia’s original war aims and blaming Ukraine for Russia’s own unwillingness to compromise.
Economic Impact –
U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil firms have officially taken effect, potentially stranding 48 million barrels of Russian crude at sea, Bloomberg reports. Indian refineries are now turning to Middle Eastern suppliers, while traders scramble to reroute Rosneft and Lukoil shipments already in transit. Even in Asia, not all barrels may find buyers.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
European and Ukrainian officials are rejecting Trump’s 28-point peace proposal, calling it one-sided and tailored to satisfy Putin. The plan demands Ukraine give up territory, slash its military, and welcome Russia back into global institutions, all while European allies were shut out of the drafting process. According to the Wall Street Journal, EU leaders are preparing to unveil their own alternative peace plan, more favorable to Ukraine, within days.
***
During the night of Nov 20–21, Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine using 115 UAVs, including around 70 Shaheds. Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down or jammed 95 of them. However, 19 struck targets across 12 locations, hitting civilian areas in Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
Russian losses as reported by Ukraine.
+1050 men
+3 ACVs
+20 artillery
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
The fight for Pokrovsk is close to coming to an end. Recent OSINT analysis indicates that Russian forces are close to closing off the pocket west of the town and that Pokrovsk is mostly under Russian control.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Pokrovsk’s days are numbered. Depends on how stubborn Ukraine is.
“Peace” talks and plans have bubbled to the surface again, and Witkoff has dredged up the same old format that has gotten nowhere in the past. Trump really needs to retire this guy from the negotiations business. I can’t see Ukraine and Europe agreeing to even a 10th of what’s in the document. And of course, Russia will do the bait and switch to keep the west off balance .
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Continued strikes against Hamas across all Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu: I am pleased that Egypt is allowing anyone who wants to leave Gaza to do so, and Trump’s plan includes granting the right to leave Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli airstrikes targeted eastern Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza Strip
***
Remember the trapped Hamas terrorists in the Rafah tunnel?
There are unconfirmed reports that all communication with them has been lost since last weekend. Estimates indicate that around 80 remain trapped in the tunnel, relying on mediators to secure a “safe passage.” Many reportedly have been taken out by IDF as they tried to escape. The Chief of Staff has ordered: either they surrender with their hands raised, or they will be killed.
***
The city of Beit Hanoun ( NE corner of Gaza) is a central Hamas terror stronghold in Gaza.
Underground: Beneath civilian homes, Hamas built an extensive tunnel network.
Above ground: Thousands of structures served as weapons storage facilities, firing positions, and command centers for terrorists. Additionally, armed terrorists operated from inside an elementary school, and beneath it a tunnel shaft lead to an underground tunnel.
https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/65629
OBSERVATION - This was a key city set up to target Israel’s central region - Tel Aviv. The link has a very informative video on the extent of the stronghold - especially the complex tunnel network. The integration of the tunnels with schools, mosques and other ‘protected’ sites shows the depth that Hamas took to hide and protect its network.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
IDF report disrupting major terror operations in Judea and Samaria this week, with extensive raids leading to numerous arrests and the seizure of firearms, explosives, and illegal weaponry. Around 15 vehicles purchased using terror-linked funds were also confiscated, and several planned attacks were stopped before they could be carried out
Israeli forces raided West Bank’s Tulkarem, Salfit, Qalqilya among other locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Haven’t heard from the Houthi’s or Iranian backed Iraqi militias lately.
———INTERNATIONAL ————————
The United States is currently in intense discussions with several nations in an effort to assemble the International Stabilization Force (ISF) as authorized by the recent UN Security Council Resolution 2803.
According to recent reports, besides talking to Arab and Muslim nations about contributing troops to the ISF, the U.S. is also talking to European countries, which have expressed an interest in participating in the training of Palestinian security forces who will take over the policing of the enclave after the ISF has finished its role.
OBSERVATION - Good luck with that.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
While the Trump administration struggles to put the bits and pieces together for a Gaza peace force - from largely uncooperative nations, Israel continues to eat away at Hamas.
Of note the declining numbers of the trapped Hamas forces within the Yellow Zone. No one is coming to their ‘aid’ so it time for the surrender or jihad death decision.
See Lebanon below as things are developing there.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that relocating Iran’s capital from Tehran has become unavoidable, citing overcrowding and limited water resources, Iran International reported on Thursday.
The government has identified the underdeveloped Makran region in southeastern Iran as a possible new capital. No timeline for the move has been announced.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-874696
OBSERVATION - Iran just doesn’t even begin to have the money for such a move. All its funds are being channeled into its military programs.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Lebanese army commander says Israeli attacks hinder the deployment of its forces in the south
Other reports that Hezbollah is working frantically to reestablish bases from which to resume attacks on Israel. Enough for the Israeli cabinet to meet in special session to decide on future actions. The limited strikes since the ceasefire haven’t been enough to stop the effort — and the Lebanese govt and military have been impotent in holding up their end of the bargain. This all points to a much more, all out air campaign by Israel, likely to begin in December, following Trumps deadline of the end of this month for Lebanon to get the job done.
It is uncertain how much Hezbollah has been able to restore its strategic weapons - guided rockets and other missiles - which will be their go to weapon of retaliation. I don’t think Hezbollah has restored its fighting strength, though I’m pretty sure all of their arms storage locations were not hit by Israel. Should sustained combat resume, Hezbollah will suffer greatly from the cut off of its supply chain thru Syria. It can get some smuggled materials, but the volumes will be lacking and increased pressure by Israel on storage locations will quickly impact Hezbollah operations. Israel’s forward deployment into S Lebanon will also disrupt Hezbollah ground attack plans into Israel.
In short, a large and likely sustained air campaign is coming, probably next month. How Hezbollah (and Lebanon) responds will have to be seen then.
Thanks Godzilla. The 5 affiliated with Antifa should be executed. Are we serious about International Terrorist Organizations? Send a message to all terrorists
It's time to change the laws on 'nonprofits'... if these folks are involved in fake astroturn 'protest' they must put that in their tacc filings. THE PUBLIC HAS A RIGHT TO KNOW.
Globalism / Great Reset –
There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other. It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead. As we have seen so many times before, these issues tend to be alarmingly accurate.
The reason why they are so accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of influence over the course of human events. If they are absolutely determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to happen.
Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of global chaos in 2026.
The Economist has been around since 1843, but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.
Ultimately, it is a publication by the elite and for the elite.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9165#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Snyder of the “End of the American Dream “ is a quintessential doomer and many of his predictions just haven’t paned out over the years.
However, his observations on the issue of “The Economist” are similar to those made over the years by many others, as us common people try to read the tea leaves at to what the elite are thinking. Even at that point, many claims on past covers haven’t really panned out either. This is 2025 and the world has entered a post-wuhan time of increasing chaos and the symbology reflects that. 2026 could prove to be a major year in the world and where it is headed.
Just a matter of keeping our eyes and ears open for advance inklings of the globalist plans and actions to bring those plans about.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
Weekend Forecast - Announced demonstrations in DC by “Removal Coalition”, do not appear to be mobilizing many at this stage.
Elsewhere, same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.
Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (note change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.
***
“Removal Coalition” rally today, not much on the web concerning this event.
***
(FO) A coalition of activist groups called for “coordinated economic shutdown” they are calling The Mass Blackout (Nov 26 - Dec 2.)
The coalition urged Americans to stop online and in-person shopping, stop work, and “remove the regime.” The coalition includes Blackout the System, The People’s Sick Day, The Progressive Network, American Opposition, and the Money Out of Politics Movement.
Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, also called for a boycott of Home Depot, Target, and Amazon from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.
NOTABLE FO ANALYSIS - Boycotts, strikes, and other tactics that are disruptive to an economy are often vital parts of resistance and revolutionary movements. What separates a boycott as a form of protest and one of resistance or revolution is intent. As a form of protest, a boycott is aimed at getting a company to choose a different policy. As a form of resistance or revolution, a boycott is intended to build economic pressure against the sitting government to resign or abdicate. So, when a protest movement like “Blackout the System” engages in boycotts to “remove the regime,” it’s not a simple protest, but a tactic of a revolutionary movement.
MY OBSERVATION - Growing development of a ‘color’ revolution focusing on a sector or pillar of society to place pressure on the governing administration.
How successful with this be? Probably only the hard core will turn out. The rank and file progressive democrats rely too much on these businesses to avoid and boycott them all together. Leftist boycotts haven’t been very successful in the past, in comparison to those by the right, “go woke, go broke” is one example.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
A new report reveals how artificial intelligence programs, ChatGPT and others, have been documented to advise those with ill intentions “on how to attack a sports venue, buy nuclear material on the dark web, weaponize anthrax, build spyware, bombs” and more.
It is in an extensive documentation compiled by the Middle East Media Research Institute that the startling warnings are contained.
In the report, Gen. (Ret.) Paul E. Funk II, formerly the commander of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, explained, “Artificial Intelligence (AI), the rapidly developing technology, has captured the attention of terrorists, from al-Qaida through ISIS to Hamas, Hizbullah, and the Houthis.”
He cites the study, “Terrorists’ Use Of AI So Far - A Three-Year Assessment 2022-2025,” for its “unsettling contribution to the public debate on AI’s future global impact.”
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9164
OBSERVATION - More at link. Very disturbing but not surprising. Evil will use all resources at hand to conduct evil. And AI today seems more than willing to produce the information
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat supplier, is planning to close one of its largest beef-processing plants in Nebraska at a time when a cattle shortage in the U.S. squeezes meatpacking companies
OBSERVATION - True that US cattle herds are down, Tyson has proceeded to decimate the meat processing sector ever since wuhan, and that portion of the industry is still suffering. Some going a far as to suggest that this is a covert effort to damage the food chain here in america - remember how the globalist are waging war against meat - wanting people to eat bugs instead.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Marjorie Taylor Greene has flamed out, as she has announced that she is resigning from the House of Representatives, effective January 5, 2026. Her seat will be filled by a special election
OBSERVATION - Well, bye meme
***
The U.S Supreme Court has overturned a lower court and rules that Texas redistricting map is perfectly legal
OBSERVATION - The opinion was rather scathing.
***
President Donald Trump called for Democrats who participated in a video calling for U.S. military personnel and federal employees to “refuse illegal orders” to be put on trial for “seditious behavior” yesterday.
OBSERVATION - On cue, these democrat cry bullies are saying that they are the victims of a mean old Donald Trump. No, in reality they got slapped up side the head with the legal ramifications of what they were trying to accomplish.
What is scary, there are enough senior officers that boot licked their way into the command structure via 0bama and biden that will see this as justification to disobey ANY order they want to deem as ‘illegal’. This is a recipe for revolt people and dangerous as tossing a lighted match into a powder house.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani had their first face-to-face meeting at the White House. During his visit to the Oval Office on Friday, Trump congratulated Mamdani (D-N.Y.) for his win in the Big Apple.
Mamdani expressed his appreciation for a “productive” meeting with Trump, recalling that the two spoke about affordability, which was the overarching focus of his campaign. He said they discussed rent, groceries, utilities, and “the different ways in which people have been pushed out,” saying that he looked forward to working with Trump to deliver affordability.
OBSERVATION - Many on both sides are scratching their heads over the honey sweet, buddy buddy press conference and appearance of congeniality . Some analysts thing Trump played Mamdani like a fiddle, cutting out his radical leftist base, while at the same time reassuring NYC businesses that the wont be allowed to go nutz.
Perhaps an old saying may be in effect - hold your friends close, and your enemies even closer.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
(FO) The Trump administration’s National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross said the administration’s new National Cyber Strategy will shift the U.S.’s focus from defensive to offensive cyber operations. Cairncross said the new strategy will target adversary state-linked hackers in order to shape adversary behavior and deter future cyber attacks. The new National Cyber Strategy appears to be preemptive offensive actions against foreign adversary cyber operations designed to push foreign adversaries out of that gray area.
Illegal Immigration –
Trump has announced via a post on Truth Social that he will be “terminating, effective immediately” the Temporary Protected Status (TPS Program) for Somalis in Minnesota. There are only around 700 Somalis that are actually on TPS across the United States, with the rescinding of the status requiring a directive from the Department of Homeland Security before the expiration of the next period under the TPS Program for Somalia.
OBSERVATION - Just the tip of the iceberg on the Somalian problem in Minnesota as there are even more who’ve snuck into the country and congregated into the community where they can be camouflaged from the prying eyes of ICE / BP
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
***
ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.
Other Key Takeaways:
Reported Russian government insiders also indicated that the Kremlin does not support the proposed 28-point peace plan.
Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands.
The Kremlin has thus far failed to set conditions for the Russian people to accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1992095511168348583?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - I’ll try to tie up the Russian / Ukraine plan below in Misc
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Trump has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and arms supplies for Ukraine to force it into accepting the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, Reuters reported Friday citing two unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Washington has presented Ukraine with a 28-point plan seen as endorsing some of Russia’s key demands, including further territorial concessions, curbing the size of the Ukrainian military as well as foreclosing Ukraine’s path to join NATO.
Kyiv, it is understood, is under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions, expected to sign a framework of the deal by next Thursday.
***
Overnight, Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea and 104 attack drones including Shahed, Geran, and others from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down or jam 89 of them. Hits were recorded at 15 locations.
Explosion was reported in Odesa region, from a ballistic missile strike
Russian losses per 22/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+4 tanks
+7 ACVs
+9 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation remains serious and dynamic.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Ukraine still tenaciously holding on to areas of the Pokrovsk pocket. I still believe it has become a losing battle and they need to be careful not to let a sizable force get trapped.
Trump’s peace plan demands - See my comment below under Misc.
Poland –
Poland’s lower chamber of Parliament unanimously voted to move the Russian Embassy in Poland due to its proximity to the Polish Defense Ministry. Politicians previously raised this issue for decades but tabled it to maintain stable relations with Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Ukraine’s allies will seek to “strengthen” a US plan to end the war with Russia when they meet at the G20 summit in South Africa, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has said.
The summit begins a day after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Ukraine faced “one of the most difficult moments in our history” over pressure to accept the plan - leaked details of which have been seen as favourable to Moscow.
Zelensky held phone talks with Sir Keir and the leaders of France and Germany on Friday. Afterwards, the PM said Ukraine’s “friends and partners” remained committed to securing a “lasting peace once and for all”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx9xnpll8o
OBSERVATION - Uniformly, European allies have rejected the Trump plan, seeing it essentially as a surrender by Ukraine and a threat to longer term peace and stability in Europe. This ‘plan’ may have caught many of them by surprise since Trump had been hardening against putin of late.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas bunkers/tunnels continued to be destroyed
- Hamas fighters trying to escape trapped in tunnels in Yellow zone being taken out or captured.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army is using large quantities of explosives to destroy buildings in the northern Gaza Strip, and the sounds of explosions can be heard in the settlements surrounding Gaza. Most likely Hamas underground tunnels/bunkers.
***
Earlier today (Friday), approximately 15 terrorists emerged from underground terror infrastructure at two different locations east of the yellow line in eastern Rafah.
Following ISA intelligence, the IAF has so far eliminated six terrorists.
Simultaneously, IDF troops apprehended five terrorists who surrendered to them and were transferred for further questioning by the ISA inside Israel.
One captured terrorist: “We went out of the tunnel in search of food and water”.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli conduct anti-terror operations in Silwad town, northeast of Ramallah
———INTERNATIONAL ————————
Ankara has announced that it is recruiting 2,000 Turkish soldiers and training them as a brigade that will join the International Stabilization Force (ISF), slated to deploy in the Gaza Strip as part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. This step dovetails with another Turkish move revealed a few days ago, the issuance of 37 arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on allegations of war crimes and genocide.
These developments come as Ankara invests heavily in increasing visibility in Gaza via Turkish and Palestinian aid organizations. Turkish posters and flags are flying across the Strip, including on bulldozers clearing debris and searching for deceased hostages.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9162
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
International noise over the trapped Hamas fighters has effectively disappeared and recent capture of those attempting to escape tell the story that their supplies are running out and their position to remain in the tunnels is becoming precarious. Good.
Israel has flat out rejected any Turkish military presence in Gaza. Turkey is as hostile towards Israel as Hamas and will not be a good mix.
Movement towards an expanded operation against Hezbollah continues to grow and develop.
Iraq -
ISW. Iraqi Government Formation: Iranian-backed Iraqi Parties Are Poised to Control the Next Government
Iranian-backed political parties are preparing to form the next Iraqi federal government after winning over a third of the seats in the recent parliamentary elections. These parties may exclude or at least weaken Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani, despite his coalition winning the plurality of seats.
OBSERVATION - Iraq’s new government is starting to form. The shift towards Iranian shia elements was accelerated in part by Sadr’s pulling back from the elections and not having an Iraqi shia to counter balance Iran’s version of shia.
Looks like at the bottom line, Iraq is facing a period of instability, though at this stage no outright rebellion.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli airstrike on a car in Nabatieh district, southern Lebanon, kills Hezbollah target
***
The Israeli army followed-up about strike against a Hamas training compound inside the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp in southern Lebanon earlier this week. The military said it killed 13 militants, including Jawad Sidawi, a trainer involved in plotting attacks from Lebanon against Israel. The military said the site demonstrates Hamas’ growing presence in Lebanon despite Beirut’s pledge to disarm armed groups in the camps
***
Sarit Zehavi, a leading Israeli security expert on Hezbollah from the Israel Alma Research and Education Center, told Fox News Digital that Hezbollah does not currently “have the capability to carry out an October invasion. They had it prior to Oct. 7, 2023. They can send in a few terrorists. I want to believe it will take a few years to get those capabilities back.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/
OBSERVATION - Like I noted previously, Hezbollah lost a lot of its capabilities to launch a large scale ground assault on Israel. Their primary elements will be their limited missile/rocket stockage and resistance to any Israeli ground operations. With out a doubt, Mossad intelligence has a long list of prioritized targets should the go order be given to intensify operations against Hezbollah.
Misc of Note –
What is with Trumps sudden switch back on the Ukraine war. In just the past few weeks, Trump unleashed a new round of sanctions on Russia and roped in many supporting countries, like India, to cease oil purchases - noting explicitly how Russia has been disingenuous in its willingness to talk peace and end its aggression.
Now all of a sudden, Ukraine has been given a deadline to accept a “peace” plan that will decimate the country and essentially give Russia nearly all of its demands - all on the backs of Ukraine.
On the Russian side, Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit. Total capitulation of Ukraine to Russian rule.
Additionally, the kremlin says it rejects the plan. This brings up a very BIG question - just who in the heck was this “Russian” Witcoff reportedly “negotiated’ this deal with?
Smells like Lucy holding the football again. putin wants to undermine western support for Ukraine and what better way than to sow dissension arising from a ‘peace’ plan that will not see the light of day and Trump some how being convinced to issue a Thursday (Thanksgiving) deadline for Ukraine to accept - except that Ukraine was not part of the plan discussions.
I do not think Trump or Witcoff are grasping putin’s game and that a wildly swinging foreign policy against Russia is not making the world safer. You must have consistency. Regan knew that and held the course that caused the Russian controlled Soviet Union to implode.
You cant one day extend sanctions of Russia and the next try to force Ukraine to essentially surrender. It plays right into putin’s hands