Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Yesterday’s post was OBE’d so to day is a little larger. Today is crazy as well, so running late.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The 30th World Climate Conference in Belém is not yet over, but it is already becoming apparent that the event, announced as the “Conference of Truth,” will go down in the history of climate conferences as a turning point.

No head of state from the four largest CO2-emitting nations—China (33%), the USA (12%), India (8%), and Russia (5%)—is showing up in Belém.

Even before the conference, the New York Times headlined: “The whole world is fed up with climate policy.” And the fact that Bill Gates, one of the biggest supporters and sponsors of climate policy, explicitly warned against excessive, shortsighted climate policy just 14 days before the conference, and put prosperity back in focus — a major blow.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/12/german-energy-professor-cop-30-is-a-failureonly-europe-remains-committed/

OBSERVATION - A whole lot more at the link above. On a globalist level, the climate change agenda has reached a melt down as reality has set in, destroying a lot of the fear mongering. Oh that will still be used, but harsh economic conditions setting peoples minds back.

***
Baton-wielding protesters stormed the COP30 summit in Belem, Brazil, on Tuesday, with video showing some dressed in indigenous outfits, according to multiple reports.

The COP30 summit is the 30th annual meeting of parties to the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), an agreement to reach “net-zero” carbon emissions by 2050, according to the conference’s website. Video posted on X and aired by the BBC showed the protesters kicking doors and forcing their way into the building.

https://dailycaller.com/2025/11/12/feather-headed-protesters-storm-un-climate-summit/

***
Apple is launching Digital IDs, a feature that allows you to create and store an ID in Apple Wallet using your US passport. In the announcement, Apple says Digital ID acceptance will begin to “roll out first” at TSA checkpoints for domestic travel in over 250 airports across the US.
You can present your Digital ID in place of a REAL ID at TSA checkpoints using your iPhone or Apple Watch. But Apple notes that it isn’t a replacement for your physical passport, and that you can’t use it for international travel or border crossings.
Apple already allows you to store your driver’s license in Apple Wallet in 12 states and Puerto Rico, but the new Digital ID option offers an alternative for people whose home state doesn’t support digital driver’s licenses or don’t already have a REAL ID or state ID. Apple first announced Digital IDs during its Worldwide Developers Conference in June, and the feature was supposed to arrive with iOS 26 before Apple quietly delayed it.

https://www.theverge.com/news/819077/apple-digital-id-launch-tsa

OBSERVATION - Globalist exist not only in govts, but mega corporations and will use all to push towards a common goal of switching everyone to a digital ID that will eventually be tied in to their bank account and controlled by a social data score. Apple and others are in the conditioning process for such a system. For such a reason I refuse to use the biometric unlocking systems for my iPhone.

Amazon has done similar with their biometrics and stores.

***
As if the COP 30 couldn’t get any more bizarre, now things have broken down over the definition of a “woman” with more conservative countries demanding it stays with the biological definition, while more woke delegates want the broader, social definition.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend forecast - Things pretty much unchanged from last weekend. Scattered protests - mostly signs and shouting - across the country. There is currently no major leftist unifying event for them to rally to. That said, localized incidences of violence may spring up, like last weekends Antifa assault on at TPUSA rally on the Berkeley campus. Be attentive to your local news.

***
Seattle voters have chosen Katie Wilson, a communist — technically a “Democratic Socialist” — to lead one of the most consequential cities in the country — the yin to Zohran Mamdani’s yang.

OBSERVATION - This follows Antifa’s dominance of the city, forcing leadership further to the left. Related associations in other major cities are also reflecting this trend to the hard left, like NYC, Chicago and LA. Within the CW2 matrix this is sharpening the separation of these populous blue cities from the surrounding red areas. This entrenches the leftist control of state house, further attacking red areas. Should things go sideways these islands of blue will find themselves dangerously isolated from the food and other supplies they need. Civic breakdown will see rises in gangs and the soft, vocally ‘tough’ progressive citizens who voted this anarchy on themselves will either cower to the violence or try to escape.
The smart and mostly red residents are already in the process of leaving these festering hell holes.

***
SecState Rubio. Today, building on @POTUS’s historic commitment to uproot Antifa’s campaign of political violence, the Department of State is designating four Antifa groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists. The United States will continue using all available tools to protect our nation from these anti-American, anti-capitalist, and anti-Christian terrorist groups.

OBSERVATION - Placed here because it strengthens the ability to go after domestic Antifa cells.

***
(FO) People familiar with the matter said Southern District of Florida U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones is using unconventional interrogation tactics to oust prosecutors in the U.S. Attorney’s Office.
Two federal prosecutors resigned last week after Quiñones ordered the prosecutors to sign integrity statements under threat of criminal prosecution.
People familiar with the plans said Quiñones is recruiting prosecutors and restructuring the U.S. Attorney’s Office chain of command, in preparation for conspiracy investigations into former officials involved in investigations against President Trump.

Forward Observer Observations - Biden and Obama holdover career officials in the Trump administration are attempting to undermine Trump through leaks and strategic noncooperation. The groups building up for a planned 2028 color revolution attempt said they will use these career officials through an “inside-outside” strategy. This move by Quiñones, restructuring of the DOJ and other federal agencies, and the clamp down on media access in the Pentagon are likely indicators that the Trump administration is aware of this effort and attempting to mitigate its impact.

MY OBSERVATIONS - This is a critical move by Quiñones especially in the face of the developing assault on the Deep State efforts to take out Trump under the Biden regime and before with Russia Gate. This is the stealth govt that has to be purged and it looks like he is going at it aggressively and in the right way.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***

Attorney General Pam Bondi said a man confronted New Jersey U.S. Attorney Alina Habba at her office on Wednesday, and fled the scene after destroying property. According to two New York Times sources, the man was stopped by security when he approached the building with a baseball bat, but was allowed to enter after he returned without the bat.

Police are searching for the man after he escaped the facility.

OBSERVATION - The security guards should be fired. First he should never have been allowed back in without the bat and second, why weren’t police immediately summoned.

***
The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD) said it is investigating the detonation of an improvised explosive device (IED) yesterday. The LVMPD said two men dressed in black placed an IED outside of a restaurant at 2:19AM PST, and the explosion was reported by employees who arrived at 10:36AM PST. LVMPD said no one was injured.

OBSERVATION - Test run by either Antifa wannabes, illegals or jihadis.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Growing concerns on Wall Street that the Fed will not lower rates again as expected.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR has been expanded by the DoW at Trump’s direction.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Top House Democrats said they will renew the Obamacare subsidy fight in January 2026. House Democrat leaders said Democrats will have renewed leverage ahead of the 31 January 2026 funding deadline.

OBSERVATION - Whenever the democrats claim that this is a republican healthcare crisis, I will ask when 0bama became a republican.

Illegal Immigration –

Biden-appointed Judge Jeffrey Cummings has ordered the Trump administration to release over 600 illegal immigrants who were just arrested during a Chicago ICE operation.

***
During an interview on Fox News yesterday, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) official Greg Bovino said several hundred CBP agents are undergoing quarterly training in West Virginia ahead of a new federal surge. Bovino said the CBP agents could be redeployed to Chicago, IL, or deployed to New York, Cleveland, OH, or Charlotte, NC.

China -

Some reports that China is already doing work arounds to negate the trade agreement of recent weeks between Xi and Trump.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Kremlin spokesman Peskov accuses Europe of “preparing for war” with Russia, pointing to rising defense budgets.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-50 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the massive overnight Russian attack:

Shot down:
405/430 Shahed and other type drones
2/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
0/1 Zircon anti-ship missile
6/6 Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles
6/9 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles

Kyiv was the primary target.

Russian losses per 14/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1040 men
+2 ACVs
+35 artillery

Ukrainian missiles slammed into the oil terminal of Russian port of Novorossiysk. Videos posted to social media show the port of Novorossiysk is almost entirely ablaze, with clouds of thick smoke seen billowing from the oil export terminal on the coast of the Black Sea.
A drone also hit a large S-300/400 battery protecting Novorossiysk harbor.

Overnight, a refinery in Saratov, Russia, was also targeted in Ukraine’s large-scale drone and missile attack. The extent of the damage is still being assessed.

YESTERDAY

Russia launched 138 strike drones and 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile. 102 drones were taken down - Ukrainian Air Forces

ISW. The situation in the Hulyaipole direction is deteriorating, although Russian forces will probably spend considerable time setting conditions for efforts to seize the settlement.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian forces will likely attempt to isolate and encircle Hulyaipole from the northeast in accordance with a new campaign design that aims to degrade Ukrainian defenses to enable advances through infiltration tactics.
Elements of three Russian combined arms armies (CAAs) are currently arrayed to either conduct or support offensive operations against Hulyaipole.

Russian losses per 13/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1180 men
+2 tanks
+11 ACVs
+9 artillery
+2 AD systems

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

In the battle for Pokrovsk, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck a concentration of Russian troops from the 51st Army in the village of Zatyshok, Donetsk region. Despite poor weather, Ukrainian drones hit the target where personnel from Russia’s 1st and 9th Motorized Rifle Brigades were gathering under cover of fog.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pokrovsk and now Hulyaipole are focuses of Russian attacks, to the point of this is probably the more official start of their winter offensive. Russian success based on the thick fog at both locations, sheltering them from the lethal drone defenses. Infiltration followed on by superiors numbers is a formula Russia has had success with this year. That along with Russia applying encirclement movements - though at near glacial speeds.

Next few weeks are going to be rough for Ukraine in these areas.

Large drone/missile attack hit a number of civilian apartments and other facilities not military related. Again, fog may be in play restricting machine guns and other optically tracking ADA systems from taking down more drones.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Body of another hostage turned over to Israel

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF launch raids on the southeastern areas of Khan Yunis city in the southern Gaza Strip

***
Trucks entering the Gaza Strip today were hijacked by Hamas militants, as has become routine.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

Associated Press: US draft resolution to grant a UN mandate for an international stabilization force in Gaza faces opposition from Russia, China, and Arab states

Russia on Thursday proposed its own draft of a UN resolution on Gaza in a challenge to a US effort to pass its own text at the Security Council that would endorse President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, according to a copy of the draft seen by Reuters.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The bold Gaza peace plan of Trump is slowly falling apart - first the refusal of Hamas’ to disarm and be removed from the region and second the so called other guarantors of the plan are sitting on their hands.

In the north, Lebanese reluctance to confront Hezbollah to disarm and remove from the region south of the Litany River is causing that ceasefire to fall apart as well.

I am expecting Israel to intensify its attacks in Lebanon next month as the deadline given by the US to Lebanon will have passed. Israel will also continue to reduce Hamas pockets within the Yellow Zone and continue to reject any amnesty plans for the trapped Hamas fighters.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

The British maritime security firm Ambrey reported that a Marshall Islands–registered oil tanker en route from the UAE to Singapore encountered three Iranian boats that diverted the ship to an Iranian port.

OBSERVATION - Iran resorts to this when it feels the need to reassert its bad boy image and promote fear in the region, especially in the realm of its ability to mess with global oil shipments

**
IAEA: Iran has not been complying with its obligations to provide information on controversial uranium stocks since the attacks on the country by Israel and the US

***
(FO) The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 32 individuals and entities based in Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, China, Hong Kong, India, Germany, and Ukraine for supplying missile fuel precursors and drone technology to Iran. These sanctions targets Iran’s ability to make rocket and missile fuel,

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

On Thursday, Adraee reports: false Lebanese reports circulated about an Israeli airstrike in the area of the village of Toul in southern Lebanon. Upon investigation, it was revealed that the car explosion resulted from a failed Hezbollah attempt to smuggle weapons. Hezbollah continues to violate the understandings, with its members operating under civilian cover and endangering reside

***

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported on Thursday that Israeli warplanes launched an airstrike at dawn on the southern town of Aitaroun, firing two air-to-surface missiles. The attack was followed by another raid on the western outskirts of the town of Tarfalsieh in the Tyre district of southern Lebanon, and then two more strikes targeting the same area, according to the agency.

***
Guterres: UNIFIL will support the Lebanese army’s efforts to deploy south of the Litani River to ensure the area is free of any illegal weapons.

OBSERVATION - UNIFIL is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. See comments under Israel above

***
Guterres: The presence of Israeli forces north of the Blue Line and their raids on Lebanon are a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and Resolution 1701.

***
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed to JNS on Wednesday that it is building a barrier at the Israel-Lebanon border and that the security wall is entirely on the Israel side, countering Arab media reports that the work is being carried out beyond the Blue Line. “Contrary to Lebanese reports, the barrier in question is located within Israeli territory and does not cross into Lebanese territory,” the IDF said.

Syria -

Clashes between Al-Hijri-led Druze factions and the Syrian Internal Security Forces in the countryside of Suwayda, Syria, have ended, reports Al-Arabiya.
The Druze National Guard paramilitary group claimed armed groups affiliated with Syria’s General Security Service attacked sites in Ira, Slaim, and Al-Majdal.
Syrian state media quoted the Internal Security Forces Command, alleging that rebel groups in Suwayda violated the ceasefire for the third day in a row, and the ISF responded.

***
Syrian Foreign Minister, Asaad Al-Shaibani:

Russia was a partner to the former regime and it participated in increasing the suffering of the Syrian people.
Our approach to Russia is pragmatic and we do not want to face this state.
The Russian role in Syria will not be that of the past.

***
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa laid out his positions on a number of topics, including the talks about a security arrangement with Israel, in an interview with The Washington Post following his historic visit to the White House on Monday.

The former terrorist noted that “direct negotiations” with Israel are ongoing and had advanced “a good distance” toward an agreement.

“But to reach a final agreement, Israel should withdraw to their pre-December 8 borders,” Sharaa said.

https://allisraelnews.com/syrian-president-shara-conditions-security-deal-on-israeli-withdrawal-from-golan-heights-claims-trump-supports-him

OBSERVATION - Syria wants the Golan Heights back, something that wont happen. For those of us grey enough to remember, when Syria occupied the Heights, they used it for artillery observation to rain shells on Israeli settlements to the west. Syria lost the hills for good after the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela has announced a “massive mobilization” of its military in response to the increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean Sea.
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said Tuesday that Venezuelan military and reserve forces would carry out training exercises through Wednesday in response to the “imperialist threat” from the United States, according to CNN. Padrino López said that the order to put Venezuela on a war footing came from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/maduro-orders-massive-military-mobilization-as-u-s-carrier-group-nears-venezuela

***
Senior U.S. military officials, including SecWar Hegseth and Chairman Caine, briefed President Trump on updated options for potential land strikes in Venezuela yesterday. The President hasn’t made his decision yet.

President Trump launches Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR, a new mission led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and @SOUTHCOM. The operation targets narco-terror groups in the Western Hemisphere and aims to stop drug flows threatening the U.S.

Central / South America General-

Ecuador will vote this weekend on whether or not to reestablish U.S. bases in Ecuador that were closed in 2009. Ecuadorian President Noboa expects the vote to pass but anonymous Ecuadorian authorities say that even a “no” vote will not derail security plans with the United States.

OBSERVATION - Continued movement to the right in Central and South America. They not only see the economical benefits of realigning with the US but security concerns as well

Globalism / Great Reset –

All continues not to be well at the COP 30 -

A top United Nations official reportedly directed Brazilian authorities to immediately address concerns like leaky light fixtures, unbearable heat, and inadequate security personnel at the COP30 climate conference in Belém, according to Bloomberg News.

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell reportedly wrote to Brazilian officials on Wednesday, demanding that the state manage security lapses like unsecured doors and insufficient security staffing, according to Bloomberg News. Stiell reportedly noted in the letter that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s office asked state police not to disperse the activists that stormed COP30 on Tuesday, according to the publication.

“The security forces and command structure required to execute the security plan were all present on the ground during the incident but failed to act,” Stiell wrote, according to Bloomberg News. “This represents a serious breach of the established security framework.”

COP30 attendees are being asked not to flush toilet paper at the venue or elsewhere around Belém, but to dispose of it in trash cans instead, according to an email from the COP30 operations team reviewed by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

“The UN can’t even figure out how to allow toilet paper in toilets at their own summit, but they want to tell the world how to manage and plan their energy economies for the year 2100!” Marc Morano, author and publisher of ClimateDepot.com, who is in Brazil covering the conference, told the DCNF.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/14/un-official-orders-brazil-to-get-it-together-over-absolute-climate-fest-dumpster-fire/

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***

Seven more members of a North Texas Antifa cell allegedly involved in a terrorist ambush shooting on an ICE facility have been federally indicted on charges that include providing material support for terrorism, using an explosive, rioting and multiple counts of attempted murder. This follows the first two in the cell who were indicted last month in the historic case. This case is the first time in U.S. history that Antifa members have been federally indicted on terrorism charges.

The DOJ in the Northern District of Texas explicitly calls them members of a “North Texas Antifa Cell,” breaking with the DOJ tradition of avoiding naming Antifa.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1989576013932605666?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Remember, this is from an ambush of law enforcement agents last summer.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Trump administration will require millions of food aid recipients to recertify their information to receive benefits, part of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ effort to overhaul the program, she told Newsmax on Thursday.

On “Rob Schmitt Tonight,” Rollins said she plans to “have everyone reapply for their benefits, make sure that everyone that’s taking a taxpayer-funded benefit through ... food stamps, that they literally are vulnerable and they can’t survive without it.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/snap-benefits-donald-trump/2025/11/14/id/1234653/

OBSERVATION - USDA identified hundreds of thousands of cases fraud from red states that provided their data on program recipients. It is believed that the amount of fraud will skyrocket once blue state eventually give up their data. The left will scream to high heaven over the requirement to recertify and it will likely face legal challenges from cherry picked democrat activist judges.

TRUMP Watch –

Anyone who thought the BBC’s apology to Donald Trump was going to stop his threat of a lawsuit was, quite frankly, deluded.

The president, based on his GB News interview, is clearly hurt by what he sees as an “egregious” edit, and he has now apparently upped the amount he says he will sue the corporation for.

While on board Air Force One on Friday, Trump told reporters the figure would be “anywhere between $1bn [£759m] and $5bn”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0yz5r8lypo

OBSERVATION - The width of the Atlantic Ocean is not enough to protect the BBC from this egregious edit job. Even the recent resignations of key persons won’t stop it.

China -

The United States agreed a $330 million deal for the sale of fighter jets and other aircraft parts to Taiwan on Nov. 13 in the first such deal since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, prompting anger from China.

The Pentagon said in a statement that the proposed sale will improve Taiwan’s “capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16, C-130,” and other aircraft.

https://thelibertydaily.com/u-s-agrees-330-million-sale-fighter-jets/

OBSERVATION - Needless to say, China is foaming at the mouth over this.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia claims to be ready to negotiate in Hungary, but maintains that Ukraine must completely capitulate before any ceasefire can take place.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-50 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense intercepted 93 targets overnight. Russia launched 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles and 135 attack drones, mostly Shaheds, from multiple directions. Two Kinzhals and 91 drones were shot down. Some hits and debris were recorded at 17 locations.

Russian losses per 15/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1000 men
+6 tanks
+19 ACVs
+20 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Ryazan’s oil refinery was hit again overnight. Locals heard over ten explosions and a large fire broke out near the site. This refinery is one of Russia’s top five and a key fuel supplier for several regions. It’s been targeted at least five times now.

Using heavy fog as cover, Russian forces set up a pontoon crossing between Yalta and Dachne, moving around 10 vehicles across. Although detected late, Ukraine’s 42nd Mech Brigade quickly struck back with drones, taking out 2 tanks, 5 armored vehicles, and personnel.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

The following is part of an ISW assessment of current battles in eastern Ukraine - one of several I’ve posted recently as they contain the best OSINT analysis I’ve seen.

ISW assessments- Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk over the last several days suggest that Russian forces in Pokrovsk are prioritizing the seizure of the settlement itself. They do not appear to be focused on supporting efforts by the 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA, formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) to close the pocket from the north and northeast with a complementary attack from the south at this time. (My observation - reported fighting on the northern flank of the Pokrovsk pocket shows a decrease in reported Russian attacks over the past few days.)

Russian forces may be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk for a number of reasons. Russian leadership may seek to exploit the informational effects that the town’s seizure will likely generate, or may hope that the seizure of Pokrovsk will facilitate a subsequent effort to close the pocket.

Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern shoulder of the pocket and a continued Ukrainian presence within Pokrovsk are complicating Russian advances and Russia’s ability to close the pocket, but that fact should not be enough in itself to cause the Russian command to be distracted from the effort from the south.

The 51st CAA has also been struggling to advance from the northeast, moving more slowly than the 2nd CAA (Central Military District [CMD]) is moving within Pokrovsk and on the western flank of the pocket. The 51st CAA’s slower tempo could also be contributing to Russia’s apparent and possibly temporary prioritization of the seizure of Pokrovsk.

The Russian military command is notably not pursuing the standard measures one would expect in such a battlefield configuration, namely focusing forces and means on completing the encirclement, which would normally be the fastest and least costly way to seize the entire area. The Russian military command can change its focus at any time, however.

Russian forces continue to advance within the pocket in the Pokrovsk direction while Ukrainian forces continue efforts to prevent Russian advances on the northern shoulder of the pocket.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1989536336261316926?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk continues to be fierce. ISW analysis suggests that something else may be causing some diversion of focus on sealing the deal there- that being shifting of resources to other areas where the Russia army is trying to take advantage of fog to negate much of Ukraine’s FPV dominance. FYI the fog is similar to the Tule fog in Kalifornia, occurs in between storm systems and can be thicker than pea soup.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ongoing operations in Gaza

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Reported airstrikes in the Gaza City area.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces carried out raids and arrests during an incursion into the town of Beit Rima, north of Ramallah, and several other areas in the West Bank.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

What appears to be relative calm obscures a lot of activity in the back ground. Israel continues to methodically reduce Hamas presence in the Yellow Zone. Right now, because of the separation, Israel cannot direct evacuation of civilians away from Hamas controlled areas, making it difficult for Israel to work and minimize civilian casualties at the same time.

Still watching the pressure needle continue to rise as it is growing more apparent the Israel and Hezbollah will be getting back into a more serious scrum here within the month. No Israeli homeland warnings or evacuations for the north, one of the key indicators of impending operations in Lebanon.

Similar pressure cooker rise with Iran, though likely on a longer term- year basis. See more under Iran below

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran’s Foreign Ministry says the IRGC navy seized the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Talara after an Iranian court issued a seizure order. Tehran claims the vessel, carrying 30,000 tons of petrochemicals, was transporting “illegal cargo” in violation of Iranian regulations, and that the operation was conducted to “protect national interests.”

OBSERVATION - The Marshall Islands are a protectorate of the US and IMHO the reason the tanker was targeted. This seizure may signal a new round of aggressive IRGC piracy, particularly due to the drawdown of US Naval assets in the region.

Any increase in piracy could accelerate the movement of the USS Washington movement to CENTCOM still currently scheduled for early 2026.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Lebanon’s central bank announced Friday a series of new restrictions on money changers and transfer companies, in a move widely seen as a response to mounting US pressure to dismantle Hezbollah’s financial lifelines, AFP reported.

The decision comes days after a visiting American official declared Washington’s intent to sever Tehran’s funding to Hezbollah. According to the US Treasury, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have funneled over $1 billion to the terror group this year, primarily through Lebanese money exchange firms.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/

OBSERVATION - You can bet corruption will allow these exchanges to continue but under a different ‘name’.
Lebanon is running out of time to deal with Hezbollah before Israel does the job.

Syria -

Tensions are still elevated following recent skirmishes between Druze and Syrian security forces in S Syria.

Misc of Note –

Freepers in Kalifornia, and especially in S Kalifornia better be alert to flooding and a major storm system it taking aim. Make sure you have your bug out bags ready, important documents ready and escape routes identified and monitored. Also make sure friends/family you may be staying with are alerted too. Get out early and avoid the rush.

BTW - don’t leave pets behind.

Globalism / Great Reset –

In a new report, IEA, a body whose research helps to shape global energy policies, has admitted that countries’ commitment to climate change action is declining rapidly.

The IEA had been predicting that “fossil” fuel consumption would peak in 2025. But now it says that demand for oil and gas will continue to rise.
A few months before the IEA’s report, the US energy secretary had said that the IEA’s modelling of peak hydrocarbon fuels was “complete nonsense” and threatened withdrawal of funding if the IEA did not reform.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Convicted violent felon and Portland Antifa ringleader Alissa Azar, who identifies as a journalist, is trying to mobilize her comrades to the @ICEgov facility in Portland to face off with Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio.

Antifa want to riot and attack like before but they are also afraid of being federally prosecuted given some of their comrades have been charged with terrorism offenses in Texas.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1989771683532537891?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - The importance of the federal terror prosecutions in TX mentioned yesterday has put Antifa in the US under the microscope - with a resultant chilling of activity.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The United States successfully carried out a test of the B61-12 tactical thermonuclear bomb - but using a non-nuclear, inert version - back in August, according to a newly released statement from Sandia National Laboratories under the US Department of Energy.

The tests took place in Nevada from August 19 to 21, which involved F-35 fighter jets deploying and releasing dummy versions of the bomb. The effort was conducted in partnership with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA).

This marks the only B61-12 stockpile flight test series carried out on an F-35 to date.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The CR expires at the end of January, when Congress will face the same spending challenge once again. Media is already building the fear factors of another shut down - a very real possibility.

Illegal Immigration –

Border Patrol sending agents and armored vehicles to Charlotte and New Orleans. Resources are being redeployed from Chicago, after wrapping up the surge there.
Of course liberal mayors and state officials are already decrying the surge.

China -

Four Chinese Coast Guard ships entered Japan-administered waters near the Senkaku Islands’ on a “rights enforcement patrol.”
Tensions have continued escalating between Japan and China since Japan’s PM implied the nation might intervene if China were to invade Taiwan.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-50 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched another drone strike overnight, 176 drones and 1 Iskander-M missile. Ukraine’s air defense downed or jammed 139 drones, mostly Shaheds, across the north, south, and east. Hits were recorded in 14 locations.

The Lukoil refinery in Volgograd has been hit again, this time by long-range Liutyi AN-196 drones.

Russian losses per 16/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+860 men
+3 tanks
+3 ACVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS

Russian sources claim they reached Rusyn Yar near Kostyantynivka, in the 93rd Mech Brigade’s sector. Using thick fog for cover, they tried to exploit drone blind spots. But Ukraine’s 93rd had ground robotic systems in place. These units detected them, relayed coordinates, and FPV drones did the rest.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Russia continues to exploit the fog in Eastern Ukraine to infiltrate and continue assaults which largely negate Ukraine’s FPV advantage. Ukraine is shifting to more traditional ground based sensors and observation posts to identify and direct FPV and artillery fire to break up attacks.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu reiterates no Palestinian state

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed developments in the Middle East in a phone call on Saturday, the Prime Minister’s Office and the Kremlin said in a joint statement.

The two focused on the situation in the Gaza Strip, especially regarding the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

The pair also discussed the status of Iran’s nuclear program and issues related to further stabilization efforts in Syria.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Netanyahu: “Absolutely NO to a Palestinian state.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu opened today’s cabinet meeting with a blunt clarification:
Israel’s policy has NOT changed, no Palestinian state, under any circumstances.

Netanyahu’s statement comes directly in response to the U.S.-backed amendment inside the new UN framework for Gaza, which shifts language toward endorsing a “pathway to Palestinian statehood.”
His message to Washington was unmistakable: Israel rejects any political process that advances Palestinian sovereignty west of the Jordan River.

OBSERVATION - Some believe the ‘pathway’ is an effort to appease Saudi Arabia and get them to sign onto the Abrahamic Accords. The ‘pathway’ wording is similar to a similar Trump move back in 2020.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

Outside elements are trying to get Israel to allow Turkish soldiers into Gaza. Israel holding a hard NO line.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Situation remains relatively static, Hamas continues to rebuild its forces and dominance over the population. Israel continues to reduce Hamas forces and facilities within the Yellow Zone. It seems to me that Israeli action in the Yellow Zone has slowed considerably over the past week.

Similar in Lebanon, though Israel continues to nail Hezbollah leaders and sites daily.

My only assumption at this time is Israel is in planning stages to expand operations in both areas.

Efforts to put Turkish boot on the ground in Gaza, with some degree of US support, is rightfully being rejected by Israel. Turkey has been very vocal about ‘protecting’ Hamas and threatened on numerous occasions to invade Israel to secure the Temple mount area. Turkish support to overthrow Assad in Syria has essentially granted them access at will to N Israel and forces in Gaza to southern and central Israel. Anyone thinking that Turkey will now be a good boy is going to find out otherwise.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iranian media say 16 dams are below ten percent capacity, and 20 provinces have recorded zero rainfall.

Social media postings showing Iranian military officers calling for the return of the Shah dynasty seem to be on the increase, though I don’t see any attempted coup in the making. However, the suffering of the civilian population (food, water, power) is increasing dramatically at the expense of Iran’s military program and elites. A developing powder keg.

Syria -

Since yesterday the Syrian Government Forces have repeatedly attacked positions of the SDF in the countryside of Raqqah (Northeastern Syria), the STG launched more attacks in an attempt to infiltrate the frontline positions of the SDF - as clashes took place, both sides have deployed reinforcements to the frontline

OBSERVATION - Numerous agreements to incorporate the SDF into the Syrian military have been made in the past, then Syria does stuff like this which reinforces the need of the SDF to remain armed and independent.

Mexico -

The Secretariat of Citizen Security of Mexico City is reporting that 100 police officers were injured during today’s anti-corruption demonstration in front of the National Palace, claiming that a large violent group directly assaulted police elements with punches and explosive devices, while some officers were stripped of their shields and communication radios, with at least 40 officers requiring hospitalization across Mexico City.

Rioters protesting against the leftist government of President Sheinbaum tear down the protective barrier protecting the National Palace.

OBSERVATION - I saw a new article noting the erection of a protective fence around the National Palace earlier this week, but it didn’t give a context other than there was unrest surrounding the assassination of the mayor of Uruapan, Carlson Manzo, and associated grumblings towards the govt.
Clearly, there must have been announced plans for a protest. Manzo was assassinated by cartels and anger has been growing because of increased cartel actions / violence that many see being condoned by Sheinbaum. Could continue to be spicy down there.

Central / South America General-

U.S. Marines in Haiti exchanged gunfire this week with suspected gang members, according to U.S. military officials - WaPo

OBSERVATION - Marines are protecting the US embassy.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A landmark declaration at COP30—marking first time information integrity is prioritized at UN Climate Conference.

They want to control all information & deem what is or is not the truth regarding “climate change”

This is a dangerous declaration. What concrete action are they going to take exactly? Their narrative is under threat & they want total control over it.

That is to say, any science which disputes the Global Warming mass line narrative attack will be punishable in more legitimized ways than merely debunking or other extra legal means.

https://vladtepesblog.com/2025/11/16/canada-has-signed-on-to-more-criminalization-of-counter-narrative-speech-at-the-brazil-climate-con/

OBSERVATION - Totalitarians have to have complete control over the narrative in order to dull the minds of the sheeple and insure control. Now this effort is looking to go beyond the current censorship efforts into criminalizing the presentation of counter narrative scientific facts and analysis.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025

NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

President Donald Trump revised the scope of his global tariffs Friday, scrapping levies on several grocery staples in an effort to address mounting concerns about stubbornly high food prices.

A White House fact sheet accompanying the order states “certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States.” Notable affected items include “coffee and tea; tropical fruits and fruit juices; cocoa and spices; bananas, oranges, and tomatoes; beef; and additional fertilizers.”

https://dailycaller.com/2025/11/15/donald-trump-announces-rollback-beef-coffee-banana-tariffs-affordability-crisis-executive-order/

OBSERVATION - Democrats claiming proof that tariffs are hurting americans.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Obama Judge Boasberg blocked Trump admin CDL restrictions meant to prevent tragedies like the Florida crash where an illegal migrant trucker killed three people. His ruling keeps 190,000 noncitizen CDL holders on US roads. Another Obama judge undermines safety.

OBSERVATION - At first I couldn’t believe the headline. A very clear law and Boasberg issues his judicial fiat to eliminate it. The republicans better step up and put this rabid down down.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

The White House is getting ready for the visit of Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud

TRUMP Watch –

Trump:
“House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide”.

Democrats spent four years not lifting a finger to release the Epstein files, but when they found a weapon against Trump, suddenly they’re pretending to be all about transparency.

The problem is, their gambit just blew up in their faces.
President Trump called their bluff Sunday night, posting on Truth Social that House Republicans should vote to release the files. “House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide,” Trump wrote.

The statement is a true masterclass in political chicken. Democrats want the public to believe they’ve got dirt on Trump when they really don’t. Now we get to see if they really want to see what the files say.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/11/17/trump-just-completely-turned-the-tables-on-democrats-over-the-epstein-files-n4946070

OBSERVATION - The whole Epstine matter I’ve pretty much ignored because it has little to do with the internal threats to the country - but a lot of political soap opera. I bring this out now because it is seemingly a flip that Trump has been holding in his hand for just the right moment. The observation is right, the democrats for four years under biden had every opportunity to uses these files against Trump. They threw everything else at him in an effort to neutralize him. Full release of these files could well open a whole new axis of attack on the deep state, and create shockwaves that could shake the nation to its core. Or then again come out as a nothing burger. IMHO something in the middle is building.

Illegal Immigration –

Customs and Border Patrol agents arrested 81 people in Charlotte during their first day of an immigration enforcement operation known as “Charlotte’s Web.” Immediate results, WCNC reported that the commander overseeing the operation, Gregory K. Bovino, described on X that those arrested Saturday had “significant criminal and immigration history.” Border Patrol is conducting this surge on. its own, without the support of ICE, outlets report.

OBSERVATION - This is essentially a Border Patrol operation and not ICE. BP is taking over lead in some of these sweeps because the administration thinks they will be more aggressive in their prosecution of illegals.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Economic Impact –

Russian businesses are starting to feel the pinch of higher taxes due to funding needs of the Ukraine war.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 2 Iskander-M missiles and 128 drones, including around 80 Shaheds. Ukraine’s air defense downed or jammed 91 drones. Hits were recorded at 15 sites from drones and 2 from ballistic missiles.

The two missiles struck residential areas in central Balakliya, Kharkiv region. Three people were killed and ten injured, including children.

Russian drone has attacked Turkish-owned gas tanker on the border between Romania and Ukraine

Ukraine struck the 500 kV “Veshkayma” substation in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region overnight. The substation had only recently been partially restored, now it’s hit again.

Russian losses per 17/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1160 men
+2 tanks
+3 ACVs
+17 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

An attempted Russian breakthrough near Novopavlivka has reportedly been contained. Fifteen Russian troops were eliminated, two captured. All assault groups were neutralized. The 59th Brigade provided timely reinforcement, and clearing operations are now underway in the area.

The Dobropillia–Kostiantynivka highway, briefly cut by Russian forces during their push on Dobropillia, has been retaken by Ukraine’s Air Assault and National Guard units.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces reportedly have resumed the attempt to encircle Pokrovsk rather than directly assault it.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Though still underpressure, Ukraine is still stiffening its defenses in the Pokrovsk sector and Russia is about to lose its fog advantage. The Tule type fog develops in still wind conditions and inversions. From the weather forecasts I’ve seen, weather systems are starting to pass through the region, stirring up the air and limiting fog development. Further, the accompanying rains will continue to make the soils muddy, inhibiting cross country movement by Russia, forcing them again to the roads - kill zones for FPV.

I’ve not seen if Ukraine has adapted its FPV to the fog using thermal viewfinders or not. This is a lot more expensive than more standard optics but great for identifying heat signatures (ie people and equipment) within a cold surrounding (fog).

Russia has been making some small gains along the southern edge of the front lines as Ukraine has shifted forces there to the Pokrovsk fight.

Poland –

Polish PM Donald Tusk:
Unfortunately, the worst suspicions have been confirmed. An act of sabotage occurred on the Warsaw-Lublin route (Mika village). An explosive device detonated and destroyed the railway track. Emergency services and the prosecutor’s office are working on the scene. Damage was also found on the same route, closer to Lublin.

OBSERVATION - Most likely Russians, because Poland is the largest staging area for aid coming into Ukraine. Russia is unafraid to do so at this stage because they are mostly immune from counter effects from Poland short of actual war and the plausible deniability of the acts themselves.

Europe / NATO General –

Unidentified drones continue to harass European airports and military facilities over the past weeks.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas reduction within the Yellow Zone continues.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Defense Minister Katz: I have just been updated by the Deputy IDF Chief of Staff that the operation to destroy Hamas’s terror tunnels in Gaza is progressing well. The IDF is demolishing the tunnels through explosions or by filling and pumping liquid concrete into them throughout all areas under its control. The multinational force led by the United States is expected to handle the demilitarization and disarmament of Hamas in Old Gaza.

***
In a joint statement, Palestinian factions object to the US draft resolution set to be voted on by the UN Security Council.

Specifically, they reject international management of Gaza, any clause related to disarmament, the proposed role of the ISF, and any foreign military presence.

They also demand the preservation of UNRWA and for international mechanisms to hold Israel accountable for ‘violations’ of the ceasefire.

***
The Israeli Air Force hit multiple targets in Gaza overnight

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Much of the action is on the larger geopolitical level as the effort to deal with Hamas and the problems of disarming them continue to rise. Short of the resumption of war, this issue will not be solved by any international coalition. Too many arab states openly saying they want Hamas disarmed behind the scenes doing what they can to sabotage the effort - they want Israel to have a proximal military threat.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran’s water and power woes are almost biblical. The start of both are linked to the Oct 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and their overt support of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi, eventually cumulating on directly attacking Israel. Genesis 12:3 comes to mind.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

The Israeli army confirms carrying out a drone strike in southern Lebanon last night, saying it killed a Hezbollah operative. The strike, near the village of Mansouri, south of Tyre, killed Muhammad Ali Shuweikh, who the military says served as Hezbollah’s local representative in the village, and as part of his role, he was responsible for liaising between the terror group and the residents “on economic and military matters.” “The terrorist acted to seize private property for terror purposes,” the Israeli army adds

OBSERVATION - Another day, another Hezbollah leader bites the dust.

Mexico -

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum slammed today’s fiery Gen Z protests outside Mexico City’s National Palace, preaching that “one should never use violence to bring about change.”

But hold up, thousands hit the streets demanding real action on skyrocketing crime and corruption, sparked by the brutal murder of Uruapan mayor Carlos Manzo, who got 0 help fighting the narcos.

She’s quick to cry foul on protesters knocking down barriers and clashing with cops, but where’s that energy for the cartels she’s basically letting run wild?

Her Morena party’s “hugs not bullets” nonsense has emboldened the gangs, leading to record politician killings and a narco grip that’s bleeding Mexico dry.

Yet she accuses the march of being a right-wing bot-fueled setup instead of listening to fed-up citizens.

These Gen Z folks aren’t the villains; they’re calling out her tolerance for cartel chaos.

If she wants non-violence, start by cracking down on the real thugs terrorizing the country, not demonizing kids fighting for a safer future.

Source: Bloomberg,
@AZ_Intel_

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1989853423534313610?s=20

***
A couple of weeks ago, Sheinbaum completely ruled out a new “war on drugs”…
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out a new “war on drugs” as a response to the assassination of a regional mayor who was shot at a Day of the Dead celebration, a brazen killing that has sparked national outrage.
“Returning to the war against el narco is not an option,” Sheinbaum told reporters Monday, referring to the bloody anti-crime offensive launched almost two decades ago. “Mexico already did that, and the violence got worse.”

Links to narco related corruption and her election are deep -

During the election that resulted in her coming to power, 37 other candidates for office were assassinated by the cartels…

Claudia Sheinbaum was elected as Mexico’s first female president Sunday following the deadliest election campaign in the country’s modern history.

More than three dozen candidates were assassinated, including a local government candidate in central Puebla state who was killed on Friday, increasing the total number of those killed to 37 ahead of Sunday’s vote, according to data from security consultancy Integralia obtained by Reuters.

https://endoftheamericandream.com/is-mexico-on-the-verge-of-collapse-a-massive-uprising-erupts-as-protesters-that-have-lost-all-faith-in-the-government-storm-the-presidential-palace/

OBSERVATION - Will have to see if the people keep the pressure on. The protest at the National Palace was a definite shot across the bow of her presidency. Mexico is spiraling into a failed narco/terrorist state and that crime/terror most certainly will eventually spill into the US to a greater degree than we currently see. Whether or not pressure will cause her to resign is yet to be seen.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

State Dept is designating Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Headed by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted the institutions of government in Venezuela and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted by and with other designated FTOs as well as for trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe.

By naming Maduro as the leader of a designated terrorist organization, the U.S. has effectively moved him into its counterterrorism framework, where lethal force can be authorized. It lowers the threshold for the U.S. to act against him.

***
Rumors that Trump’s been chatting up Venezuela’s epic 300+ billion barrel oil stash in private huddles with top brass and aides.

Maduro allegedly floated a deal weeks back to basically gift the U.S. prime access, skipping any military drama altogether.

OBSERVATION - Unconfirmed, but it seems to be following the current narrative. Maduro is wetting himself all of a sudden when faced with US military might targeting the drug cartels operating out of Venezuela. Any expansion of effort could well cause his regime to fall and him running for his life.

Big Discord outage this morning has interrupted many of my news sources

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***

(FO) Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights President Brandon Lee said the group is preparing activists and local leaders in Charlotte, NC to resist the Trump administration’s federal surge.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of North Carolina said it is reaching out to ACLU affiliates in Illinois and California to discuss legal strategies against the Charlotte, NC federal surge. The ACLU of North Carolina said the biggest points of legal pressure on the federal surge will likely be use of force, detention conditions, and racial profiling.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said a vehicle ramming attack targeting law enforcement in Charlotte, NC ended with one law enforcement officer injured. DHS said the driver had previous arrests for resisting arrest, and firearms were found in the vehicle.

NOTE - “Ramming” has been a growing tactic by the left to disrupt ICE/DHS enforcement operations. In part to impair operations and secondly, to create opportunities by activists to attempt to take custody of the arrestee and release them.

OBSERVATION - Chicago and Portland’s actions to counter deportation operations resulted in some successes as the Trump administration has been forced to delay expanded operations pending appeals to higher courts. Another facet is the efforts of local law enforcement collection of information that may be used in an attempt to bring local criminal charges to federal agents. Already in NC a judge has ruled no NG deployments will be allowed.

***
(FO) The Revolutionary Communist Party, USA’s Refuse Fascism organization, announced their “Surround the White House 1.0” protest over the weekend. The next “Surround the White House 1.0” protest event is scheduled for today at 3pm EST.

OBSERVATION - RCP is struggling to get any kind of turnout for their events.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
Trump’s attempted assassin - Thomas Crooks - has jumped back into the forefront this week with revelations that he had a much larger internet foot print than the biden FBI let known. Recent discoveries show that Crooks had a very definite furry fetish, and associated transgender ideology streak. It goes further than that, apparently having a very violent attitude and calling for violence. In fact, it has been reported that those who he interacted with reported him for those violent posts. He was know to law enforcement.

The “why wasn’t this made known” question is rising. IMHO it is because Crooks wrapped the LGBT etc. cloak around him, describing himself with the pronouns “they/them” on many accounts. The LGBT woke mafia is deeply entrenched in govt agencies like the FBI and do all to suppress any press concerning sexually deviant shooters.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

In a long-awaited move, the Veterans Administration (VA) under the Trump administration is restoring those rights to veterans who were unfairly discharged.

A major policy shift could restore education benefits to thousands of veterans who were separated from military service for refusing the COVID vaccine during the Biden administration, according to The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

The move follows President Donald Trump’s January executive order — Executive Order 14184 – Reinstating Service Members Discharged Under the Military’s COVID Vaccination Mandate.

This directed federal agencies to identify service members affected by the former vaccine requirement and to take steps to reinstate or restore certain benefits.

In response, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth went on to instruct military departments to facilitate discharge upgrades for those who were involuntarily separated because they declined the COVID vaccine and received a characterization of service that affected their benefits.

https://redstate.com/wardclark/2025/11/17/covid-purge-now-reversed-trump-orders-veterans-education-benefits-restored-n2196275

OBSERVATION - And many on the left continue to say Trump hates the military, yet give biden a pass for these punitive measures because they wouldn’t accept the faux wuhan narrative and unjustly had their application for exemption rejected in a blanket manner.

***
Two U.S. officials said California National Guard troops deployed to Portland, OR, and Texas National Guard troops deployed to Chicago, IL will return to their states this week. 100 of the 200 federalized Oregon National Guard troops will also be demobilized. U.S. Northern Command said it will be shifting and “rightsizing” its Title 10 footprint in Los Angeles, CA, Portland, OR, and Chicago, IL to ensure an enduring and long-term presence in each city.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Fox News reports, Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) notifies ICE she has fired a staffer who was accused by ICE of pretending to be the attorney of a previously deported illegal alien in an effort to free him from federal custody. Duckworth tells ICE in [the] letter that she was not aware of, and didn’t authorize or direct the staffer’s conduct.

***
With President Donald Trump now endorsing the push to release all Jeffrey Epstein files, top House Republicans — including chairs Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and James Comer, R-Ky. — are quickly lining up behind the bill, Politico reported Monday.

Further, a growing number of Senate Republicans are now open to voting for the measure in light of the president’s about-face, according to the report.

A vote could come as early as Tuesday in the Republican-controlled House.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house-gop-jeffrey-epstein/2025/11/17/id/1234944/

OBSERVATION - What ramifications will this release have on the politicians on Capitol hill as well as other influencers, donors, etc across the spectrum. Or will this all turn out to be a dud?

TRUMP Watch –

Trump gets down at a McDonalds convention - want fries with that.

Illegal Immigration –

Supreme Court Gives Trump Administration Major Win in Decisive 8-1 Ruling

“The ruling was 8–1 in support of the president’s position, with the sole dissent originating from Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson...”. The ruling allows the US to remove protected legal status originally granted by been for Venezuelan illegals. Now they can be deported back to where they came from.

OBSERVATION - 8-1 is a big signal to activist judges, that they will likely continue to ignore, that the Executive has the power to act in these matters. Clearly another blow to the judicial insurrection that has been going on for the past 10 months.

Japan –

Japan issues warnings to citizens visiting China to stay away from large groups.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Economic Impact –

Russian Urals crude has plummeted to $36 per barrel — the lowest level in more than two years — just days before sweeping new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s largest oil companies come into force.
The discount to Brent crude has ballooned beyond $23 a barrel as buyers pull back sharply, wary of falling afoul of looming secondary sanctions.

OBSERVATION - This continues to be a big blow to the Russian war effort. Russia is almost at the point of losing money in order to make money.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down or suppressed 101 drones overnight, including Shaheds, Geran-type, and others, out of 114 launched. The attack also included 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Russia’s overnight drone attack appeared to focus on Dnipro.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Zuivska TPP in occupied Donetsk region. Locals reported blackouts in several cities afterwards.

Russian losses per 18/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+960 men
+13 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

It is beginning to look like there Pokrovsk pocket is folding. OSINT sources show most of the town under Russian control/influence and a push southward on the northern flank has gained more territory. These pincers have almost completely closed off supply routes into the pocket.

Analysis and Future Operations —

If the OSINT analysts are correct, Pokrovsk is slipping out of Ukraine control and recent developments may suggest Ukraine in the process of pulling out to defensive lines further to the west. This will be the biggest win for Russia in over a year and one that cost them considerably in men and material. Pokrovsk was a fortress city and its loss will place more stress on the defense of Dontesk

Poland –

Poland accuses Russian intelligence of directing sabotage operations against its rail network.

In a further confirmation of the inquiry lines in Poland, the Polish security services minister’s spokesperson, Jacek Dobrzyński, confirmed that “everything indicates” that Russian intelligence services were behind the rail sabotage incidents in Poland over the weekend.

“The fact is that everything indicates that this ... we can already confidently call it a terrorist attack, was initiated by special services from the East,” he later added.

OBSERVATION - Russia has been suspect in other actions across other nations in Europe in response to their support of Ukraine. Getting very dangerous in crossing swords with Poland who is in many ways less restricted in rooting out the terrorists than say France or Germany.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- UN Security council votes to approve the Trump Gaza peace plan

——— GENERAL ——————————-

In 2026, the IDF intends to have 60,000 reservists on active duty at all times to address security challenges in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Previously, before October 7, the army typically deployed just 6,000 reservists, Ynet reports.

OBSERVATION - This will place a serious stress on Israeli business and other conditions.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Reports from the eastern areas of Khan Younis that it has been targeted by airstrikes, artillery shelling, and gunfire.

IAF strikes in Gaza Rafah and Khan Yunis overnight.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

The U.N. Security Council has voted 13-0, with both China and Russia abstaining, in favor of adopting a resolution authorizing the creation of a Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force in the Gaza Strip, as outlined in U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict.”

Key elements of the resolution is the elimination of an armed Hamas from Gaza and the independent military force - not UN lead - to institute stability and disarmament. Also included is a ‘pathway’ to a Palestinian state, provided Hamas and other terror groups are disarmed and removed.

***
The United States has conveyed a message to the mediators and to the countries expected to take part in Gaza’s international force (ISF) that it will allow Israel to resume the war in Gaza if Hamas does not disarm.
Israel Hayom has learned that the U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated this explicitly during the Security Council deliberations.
(Israel Hayom)

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Its one thing to get the UNSC passage of this Gaza plan. It is a whole other matter to get it put into action, especially when facing a radical and violent oriented jihadist Hamas. Israel’s increase in reserves on active duty reflect his reality that they may have to go at it again with both Hamas and Hezbollah and must have forces at the ready. Israel reserves can fall in on equipment in a very short order, but the current projected situation suggests that Israel cannot wait days to respond and must be ready in hours.

Key note is the apparent US support for Israel to take it to Hamas outside the Yellow Zone should things fail diplomatically. That is a degree of freedom of action that nations stepping up to man the coalition need to remember. They need to do their job or they may get caught up in Israeli vengeance against Hamas.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Authorities in Iran have sprayed clouds with chemicals to induce rain, in an attempt to combat the country’s worst drought in decades. Known as cloud-seeding, the process was conducted over the Urmia lake basin on Saturday, Iran’s official news agency Irna reported.

RELATED BUT UNRELATED - The rains the Iranians had been praying for have caused devastating floods across large parts of western Iran. The Iranian meteorological service has warned that additional flooding is expected.

OBSERVATION - Soils are so dry there is very little water soaking into it and almost instantly runs off - like water on concrete. Iran is so far behind in needed precipitation these floods are but a drop in the bucket and will do little to alleviate drought conditions.

Iraq -

Iraq confirmed final election results, showing that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list came first with 46 seats in the 329-member parliament, the election commission said.
A new government could still be months away amid wrangling to build a majority.

OBSERVATION - The mix of Shia / Sunni / other members of parliament is critical and I’m still looking to see how that mix has fully played out. It will very much establish how much clout Iran will have over Iraq.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

The visit of Lebanon’s Armed Forces commander to the USA was cancelled.
The reason for the cancellation of the visit - the fact that the latest message from the Lebanese army criticized only the Israeli conduct and not Hezbollah regarding the situation in Lebanon.

OBSERVATION - US is not having any patience with Lebanon trying to shift blame on Israel while ignoring its obligations to disarm and remove Hezbollah from S Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia –

Trump is concluding meetings with the Saudi crown prince. Key topics are sale of F35 and assistance in developing civilian nuclear power.

Syria -

Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Negotiations with Syria have reached a dead end and stalled due to a dispute over withdrawal from areas controlled by Israel. Israel does not want to sign a “security agreement” but rather a “peace agreement” with Syria. Israel rejects Shara’s demand to withdraw from the territories it seized after the fall of Assad

OBSERVATION - Some media outlets are saying that Shara has Trump’s support for such a withdrawal. Highly doubtful.

Mexico -

Tactics and weapons developed in the Ukraine war are rapidly spilling into the narco cartel wars in Mexico. Defense News previously reported that members of Latin American drug cartels had joined Ukraine’s foreign fighter volunteer units to gain FPV drone training.

Attacks made by explosive-equipped drones surged to over 260 in 2023. In 2024, a drone ambush was reportedly followed by an infantry-style attack in a remote community in Mexico, according to AP.

https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2025/11/14/how-cartels-are-adopting-drone-tactics-from-ukraine/

OBSERVATION - Drones are cheap technology and the adaptations are highly lethal. Gives cartels a whole new arsenal against competing gangs as well as any military / police efforts to suppress them. Something the US needs to go into with eyes wide open should we start striking cartels in Mexico. Retribution can come across the border.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Trump said that he may open talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro amid U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean

“We may be having some discussions with Maduro, and we’ll see how that turns out,” Trump told reporters on Sunday in West Palm Beach, Fla., according to Reuters. “They would like to talk.”

OBSERVATION - Will Maduro bow the knee? What is the end game? All the while the drug boat count IIRC has reached 21.

Snowy hump day here in the Redoubt.

Globalism / Great Reset –

As the world’s climate delegations gather in Belém for COP30 (November 10th-21st), they do so under a very different geopolitical sky. The United States has withdrawn from the UN’s climate process altogether, and its diplomats have just led a successful rebellion at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to block a global carbon tax on shipping. The episode marks not only a turning point for global climate policy but a moment of historical resonance. Europe’s effort to impose its moral and regulatory hegemony on the world has been checked by the US.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/18/trumps-eisenhower-moment-cop30-and-the-end-of-europes-green-agenda/

OBSERVATION - More details at link. Trump has sucked the oxygen from the room at COP 30. Unless pressure is maintained though, the globalists will be back at it again - they play the long game most in America are inept about.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
(FO) Demonstrators blocked the road to the Charlotte, NC ICE field office yesterday. The ICE field office is accessible only by a single entrance from the main road.

***
“We witnessed
@CMDROpAtLargeCA
and his team being assaulted in Charlotte while at a gas station getting snacks and using the bathroom. “

“A self-proclaimed anti-ICE activist hopped a curb, barreled into the parking lot and drove aggressively at agents. Agents gave the individual a warning—They then tried to box agents in to prevent them from leaving. Agents issued another warning. The individual then backed up into a government vehicle, then took off leading agents on a high-speed pursuit for about a mile. “

“The individual who is reportedly a U.S. citizen was arrested for assault on a federal agent but denied any wrongdoing.”

https://x.com/AliBradleyTV/status/1990532662952382741?s=20

OBSERVATION - First hand account of vehicular attacks on fed agents, a growing and dangerous tactic being used in an attempt to stop or disrupt ICE and related operations.

This is the second vehicle assault in the area since operations in the Charlotte area began. The driver claimed they were part of a local rapid response group

(FO) Local Charlotte activists are likely taking cues from both Portland, OR and Chicago, IL anti-ICE efforts. Charlotte rapid response groups will likely increase accompaniment of CBP patrols, which could lead to more confrontations between federal agents and activists. It is not clear yet if vehicle rammings and flash de-arrest demonstrations targeting CBP will occur at similar levels to Chicago, due to a likely more cooperative state government. However, vehicle rammings appear to be emerging as a direct action tactic of choice against CBP and ICE in blue states

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House and the Senate voted in favor of The Epstein Files Transparency Act. The bill directs the Attorney General to release the documents under her control related to Jeffrey Epstein. It is now to be submitted to President Trump, who has said he will sign the bill when it gets to his desk.

OBSERVATION - Breaking out the popcorn

***
Progressive critics of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) including the Progressive Change Campaign Committee began openly campaigning for Schumer to be replaced as the Senate Democrat leader. Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) member Chi Ossé filed to run in the 2026 primary election against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Ossé is a political ally of DSA Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani.

OBSERVATION - More popcorn

***
President Trump Demands Immediate Release of Gold Star Mom Tina Peters, Jailed in Colorado for Exposing 2020 Election Fraud

OBSERVATION - Its going to take a major lawsuit on civil rights violations to get her freed. IIRC, she was arrested and convicted because she exposed the lack of security of voting machines, with passwords posted on the machines.
One of the major complaints is how she is being treated in prison - by overt actions that should cause those involved to be jailed for a long time, such as unheated conditions, denial of medical care, etc. These are not unlike much of what the J6’rs reportedly experienced during pre and post trial confinement.

TRUMP Watch –

Big deal with Saudi Arabia

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025

Cloudflare suffered a major internal service outage that disrupted multiple products globally and triggered widespread failures on major sites like X.

The company says it does not suspect a cyberattack but acknowledges that errors, slow performance, and login issues are still occurring.

A core fix has been deployed, but Cloudflare cautions that it will take more time to stabilize the system.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/cloudflare-suffers-network-disruptions-multiple-customers-impacted

OBSERVATION - Just a taste of what could happen as a result of a more substantial and deliberate attack on the internet.

Illegal Immigration –

During an interview over the weekend, acting ICE Director Todd Lyons said the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will begin investigating U.S. companies that employ illegal aliens.

OBSERVATION - This has been one component that has been missing in the operations - holding companies accountable. They are required by law to verify citizenship / immigration status of all hires. Now, place some hurt on them and suddenly you will likely see more pressure on illegals self deporting rather than face arrest.

China -

Chinese Foreign Ministry:

“If Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait situation... China will strike back decisively,” and warns Japan, “not to play with fire on the Taiwan question, for those who play with fire will perish by it.”

OBSERVATION - Continued tough words from China, who realize that the new PM is a pretty tough cookie and they want to shape the opinion battlefield early and fast. See also Japan below.

Japan –

Japan announced the successful integration of a hypersonic weapon onto its ships and aircraft. The weapon is slated to enter service in 2026.

OBSERVATION - The acceleration of Japan’s military sector in preparation for a face off against China has been impressive.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force report on last night’s attack.

Shot down:
442/476 Shahed and other type drones
34/40 Kh-101 cruise missiles
7/7 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile

7 missiles and 34 UAVs have hit 14 locations, and debris from shot down ones fell in 6 locations.

Strikes hit Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Kyiv, and other regions, with children among the wounded.

A residential neighborhood in the Ukrainian city of Ternopil, western Ukraine was heavily damaged in Russia’s overnight cruise missile attack. At least two fatalities have been reported, with Ukrainian rescuers searching for survivors.

Thick smoke from a burning warehouse was observed over the Western Ukrainian city of Lviv. Lviv’s regional governor says an energy facility and an industrial site were hit overnight, triggering emergency power outages across multiple regions as Ukraine’s grid was targeted; no casualties reported in Lviv so far, per early official updates.

Ukraine drones hit a power plant in Novomichurinsk of Ryazan region

Russian losses per 19/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+850 men
+1 tank
+1 ACV
+12 artillery
+1 MLRS

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

It appears that Russia is trying to consolidate its gains in Pokrovsk and are gaining ground into Myrnohrad.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another big drone/missile attack, centering mostly on Western Ukraine. This is where war supplies and much of its industry is operating from, so Russia is attempting to starve the Ukraine war machine of essential munitions and equipment. Included are power plants

Time is running out for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as it is becoming more apparent that Russia has the upper hand. Still the potential for a couple more weeks of heavy fighting before Russia takes full control of the rubble that once was those cities.

Poland –

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has activated the CHARLIE alarm level for all railway lines managed by PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A. and PKP Linia Hutnicza Szerokotorowa Sp. z o.o., with the order remaining in effect until February 28, 2026.

CHARLIE is the third-highest of Poland’s four “stopień alarmowy” levels, invoked when authorities assess a confirmed or highly probable terrorist threat, or a significant risk to state security or critical infrastructure.

RELATED
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced this morning that they have identified the two suspects in yesterday’s sabotage of several sections of crucial rail line in Poland, with at least one attempt successfully blowing up a rail section using C4, as a pair of Ukrainian nationals long since linked to intelligence services in Russia. One of the suspects was previously convicted for sabotage in Lviv, while the other is from the Donbas in Eastern Ukraine. Both were living in Belarus and entered Poland this fall, fleeing back into Belarus after their attempts at sabotage on Sunday.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1990803807157031043?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Europe / NATO General –

In response to Russia’s large drone/missile attack on Ukraine that focused on western regions of the country, major air operations by NATO Air Forces were initiated over Poland overnight. A NATO E-3A “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft and an Airbus A330 Multirole Tanker Transport (MRTT) were up and orbiting over Eastern Poland, while a Polish Saab 340 Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft heads east towards the border with Belarus and Ukraine, and a Spanish Airbus A400M Atlas - potential operating as an aerial-refueling tanker - took off from Lithuania and is heading south in the direction of Poland.

A Russian kamikaze drone briefly crossed into Romanian airspace several times during strikes on Ukraine, prompting Germany to launch two Eurofighters and Romania two F-16s. The drone left without causing any harm.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ongoing operations in Gaza to reduce Hamas further.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF launched airstrikes behind the “yellow line” in the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Deceivingly minimal report today. The world is resetting to the UN SC resolution on Gaza and seeing how that will pan out. Meanwhile, Israel still finding and targeting Hamas and Hezbollah elements and blowing them sky high.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran released the oil tanker it seized in the Strait of Hormuz last week along with all 21 of its crew members.

OBSERVATION - No mention, but I suspect that some sort of ransom was paid for its release.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

The IDF issued a warning to residents of two towns in southern Lebanon ahead of airstrikes against Hezbollah infrastructure. “The IDF will attack military infrastructure belonging to the Hezbollah terror organization throughout southern Lebanon, in response to its prohibited attempts to rebuild its activities in the area,” warns Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman. With the announcement, the IDF publishes maps showing the locations of sites that are going to be targeted, in the towns of Taybeh and Tayr Debba.

***
IDF: “We struck operatives operating inside a Hamas training compound in the Ein al-Hilweh area of southern Lebanon. The targeted military site was used by Hamas terrorists for training and preparation aimed at planning and carrying out attacks against IDF forces and the State of Israel.

Saudi Arabia –

Trump announced last night the promotion of Saudi Arabia to the status of a major non-NATO ally, similar to the status Biden granted to Qatar (Major non-Nato Ally)

***

Saudi Arabia and the US signed a series of significant agreements in various fields following the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to Washington, as follows:

1. Saudi Arabia will invest one trillion dollars in infrastructure, industry, and technology.

2. A strategic defense agreement was signed between the US and Saudi Arabia (SDA).

3. Arms deals - Saudi Arabia is purchasing from the US: F-35 aircraft and 300 Abrams tanks.

4. An agreement for nuclear cooperation for civilian purposes under a strict standard of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

5. Strategic minerals agreement - cooperation and coordination of national strategies.

6. A memorandum of understanding was signed on artificial intelligence - granting Saudi Arabia access to American artificial intelligence technology.

7. An agreement to expand commercial and regulatory cooperation.

8. A financial cooperation agreement between the countries’ finance ministries in the fields of customs, standards, and capital market regulation.

OBSERVATION - Saudi Arabia’s status and power have risen a notch in the past 24 hours – Trump makes sure to highlight this and gives his “dear” guest all the honors that money can buy. In the Middle East, they definitely understand what this means.

Entrance into the Abrahamic Accords still iffy. Must convince SA that pathway to statehood for Palestine is satisfactory. Not that SA cares one bit for Hamas, but more for local and regional consumption.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

President Donald Trump has authorized the CIA to prepare covert operations inside Venezuela as part of a broader pressure campaign on the Nicolás Maduro regime, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

According to the Times, Trump signed off on CIA planning for clandestine measures that officials described as potential “battlefield-shaping” actions.

The paper reported that while the president has not authorized U.S. combat troops on the ground, the CIA has been instructed to develop options that could include sabotage, cyber operations, psychological campaigns, or other covert tools.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-cia-covert/2025/11/18/id/1235122/

OBSERVATION - Though this report is unconfirmed, the steps and logic claimed do represent what would be considered to be “battlefield-shaping” actions. Trump has a large military force off shore with tremendous capabilities to strike Venezuelan cartel targets hard. However, airstrikes alone won’t necessarily work as a stand alone. CIA ops would be critical in targeting cartel leadership and where they sleep at night. The Israeli campaign against Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran shows successful HUMINT can decapatite targets.

I don’t see standard boots on the ground any time soon. Any insertion is currently lacking battlefield preparation and will likely consist of (at least initially), relatively small raids on key targets, not a massive invasion. I think Trump at this time would be very satisfied just to bomb those sites.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Six elected Democrats have released a video urging uniformed military personnel and intelligence agents to defy orders from President Trump and the Department of War

The Democrats try to weasel by referring to “illegal orders.” But no one in the Trump administration has issued illegal orders. What are they talking about? Who knows? Given that they identify nothing specific, the only reasonable interpretation of the video is that they are encouraging resistance, across the board, to lawful exercise of authority by the executive branch.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/11/sedition.php#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Weasel wording aside, this is a VERY dangerous step, calling for mutiny by our service members and even govt employees. In the video, the Democrats say threats to the U.S. constitution “aren’t just coming from abroad, but from right here at home.” This is only a notch or two away from starting a civil war - attempting to begin it within the military and govt.

***
A Civil Emergency Order has been issued in Broadview, Illinois, after anti-ICE rioting, bomb threats, and a death threat against the mayor triggered a major law enforcement response, the Department of Homeland Security said Wednesday.

DHS officials said the declaration underscores how extreme the threats have become after weeks of escalating violence around the local ICE processing facility.

DHS directly blamed the unrest on misinformation pushed by sanctuary-area politicians and activist groups.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/dhs-civil-emergency-order-broadview/2025/11/19/id/1235202/

OBSERVATION - The federal judge who prevented the use of NG troops to defend the facility ought to spend a day there to see just how ‘peaceful’ it is.

***
Attacks on ICE agents have significantly increased, an 8,000 percent increase in death threats reported by the Department of Homeland Security in 2025 compared to the same period last year. Some sources also cite a 500 percent increase in all assaults on ICE agents.

Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin warned that criminals, including illegal aliens and U.S. citizens, are now using cars as weapons against federal agents, placing both officers and the public at risk. She emphasized that DHS officers will continue arresting the most violent criminal illegal aliens and that anyone who uses a vehicle to attack law enforcement will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/11/nearly-100-vehicular-attacks-ice-agents-this-year/

OBSERVATION - Left resorts to violence as it is their only tool.

***
Republican Florida Rep. Byron Donalds slammed New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani on Wednesday, saying he has no authority to impose “international law.”

Mamdani doubled down on his vow to enforce the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits the city, repeating the position he announced before his election. Appearing on “Kudlow,” Donalds said Mamdani will take an oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution and New York’s own laws when sworn in.

“Mamdani, I think, came out the other day and said that New York City is going to follow international law. Who the hell is he? He does not have the authority to do that,” Donalds told host Larry Kudlow. “When he gets sworn in as the next mayor of New York, he’s still in that oath going to pledge allegiance to the Constitution to protect the laws of the city of New York and of the United States. That’s part of the oath.

https://americafirstreport.com/that-is-insanity-byron-donalds-has-to-remind-mamdani-why-he-cant-force-nyc-to-follow-international-law/

OBSERVATION - Will be interesting to be a fly on the wall when he meets with Trump. His radical plans lay the foundation and normalization of a secession scenario in the near future where cities/states refuse to fall under federal law and jurisdictions.

***
Anti-lslamic protestors faced off against radical moslems in Dearborn MI. The protestors are rising up against increased moslem dominance of city govt (due to voting in a block) that is designed to shove out Christians and import more islamists. Protestors also calling for ICE support because it is reported that a substantial number of these moslems are here illegally.

This growing development of Islamic enclaves is growing and giving them leverage to force Islam on non-moslems. I’ve been noting for a while now that should CW2 conditions go spicy, these moslem enclaves will likely form limited partnerships with violent leftists in a fight against the US govt and those on the right (red).

***
(FO) The Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) released a call to action for people to join anti-ICE protests in North Carolina, and to join PSL’s Action Network. According to PSL, protests were organized in Charlotte, Raleigh, and Asheville this week.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday announced the designation of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) as terrorist organizations, prompting enforced state government action against them.

OBSERVATION - TX is seeing a swarm of Islamist sites trying to establish enclaves throughout the state. In concentrating, they are now moving to control local govts because they are unafraid to intimidate US citizens and the citizens are afraid to push back so that they are not labeled “islamophobic”

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +4.2%… a massive expansion.

OBSERVATION - Markets just beginning to wrap their arms around this because the Prime rate from the Fed is inhibiting the ability to take advantage of this growth.

POLITICAL FRONT –

(FO) Washington, D.C. Federal District Judge James Boasberg said he plans to move forward with a criminal contempt of court investigation against Trump administration officials over deportations under the Enemy Aliens Act.
Boasberg said hearings will begin after the Thanksgiving holiday, and he will compel current and former officials to testify.

FO Analysis - If Boasberg follows through with criminal contempt charges against current Trump officials, this will likely lead to a direct confrontation between the lower federal courts and the administration. The courts could issue arrest warrants for Trump officials, however the White House would likely ignore the warrants.

OBSERVATION - Boasberg is in up to his eyebrows in doing the deep state’s bidding. His is going in part against USSC decisions on Trump’s power to deport. Should he try to execute a ‘nuclear option’ a constitutional crisis could evolve. Boasberg is currently facing growing pressure by congress to impeach him for his actions und biden that illegally surveilled congress critters in Smith’s investigation to rope in and take out Trump supporters over a wide range of bogus and inflated charges.

***
(FO) The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals paused a lower federal court’s order restricting federal agents’ use of force against protestors in Illinois. The order restricted ICE and other federal agencies from using less lethal equipment including tear gas and pepper spray, and required federal agents to wear body cameras. The 7th Circuit judges said the order was overbroad and impermissibly infringed on the separation of powers.

TRUMP Watch –

President Trump said Wednesday he will meet New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the White House on Friday, telling WABC and posting online that Mamdani had asked for the sit-down. Trump said the meeting will take place in the Oval Office.

OBSERVATION - Will Trump read him the riot act, or smother him with honey?

***

Trump announces that he has officially signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405), which - besides a few exceptions - gives the Justice Department a period of thirty days to release all files related to their case against convicted sex offender and trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

OBSERVATION - More popcorn. Initial readings are that the democrats have suddenly been handed the tar baby they’ve been demanding and things are getting sticky. REMEMBER - Biden had these files for 4 years and couldn’t produce anything to condemn Trump even though he threw everything else at him.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025

The Center for Internet Security (CIS) said ubiquitous technical surveillance, the widespread collection and aggregation of digital data, presents an “existential threat” to U.S. law enforcement. According to CIS, criminal organizations and cartels have already used technical surveillance vulnerabilities to target law enforcement agencies including the FBI.

https://learn.cisecurity.org/countering-ubiquitous-technical-surveillance

Illegal Immigration –

MASSIVE ICE RAID at a club in San Antonio, Texas, targeting Tren de Aragua gang members.
Over 140 illegal aliens were arrested, including gang members and illegals from multiple foreign countries.

China -

Taiwan said Thursday it detected 16 Chinese warships in waters around the island, one of the highest numbers this year, as Beijing intensifies military pressure on Taipei.

The navy vessels, along with 34 Chinese aircraft, were spotted near Taiwan in the 24 hours to 6:00 am (2200 GMT) Thursday, according to the defence ministry’s daily tally.

Beijing has been holding its biggest maritime drills in years from near the southern islands of Japan to the South China Sea, Taiwan authorities said this week.

Around 90 Chinese warships and coast guard vessels have been involved in the exercises that include simulating attacks on foreign ships and practising blockading sea routes, a Taiwan security official said Wednesday.

There has been no announcement by Beijing’s army or Chinese state media about increased military activity in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or Western Pacific Ocean.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241212-taiwan-says-detects-16-chinese-warships-around-island

OBSERVATION - Currently looking like another exercise in blockading Taiwan could be developing. Typhoon season is pretty much past (June - October) so the ocean is calming to permit large scale naval operations by China.

Japan –

(FO) Anonymous Japanese government sources claim the new Japanese Prime Minister is considering revising the ban on foreign nuclear weapons in Japanese territory. The sources claim her primary concern is that this would prevent nuclear-armed vessels from entering port and weaken perceived nuclear deterrence.

***
(FO) The U.S. Ambassador to Japan, said on the Japan-China tensions, “from the president and from myself and from the embassy, for the prime minister, we have her back” and promised to “help in any way we can.” The Taiwanese Foreign Minister called on Taiwanese people to head to Japan and buy Japanese goods to counter China’s cessation of purchases.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Reports began surfacing on Wednesday that the US and Russia had prepared a new proposed framework to end the war, requiring major concessions from Ukraine including giving up territory and dramatically shrinking its military.

It was reportedly drafted by President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

Neither Washington nor Moscow have officially confirmed the plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdgrqwnq9o

OBSERVATION - Witkoff is out of his league again and the reports of this plan are all Russia and no Ukraine. This is a ‘Chamberlin” style peace accord.

***
Ukraine faced an overnight attack with 136 strike drones launched from multiple directions. Air defence, EW units and mobile groups shot down or suppressed 106 Shaheds, Herberas and other types. Twenty nine drones hit sixteen locations, with debris falling in three more.

Russian losses per 20/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+890 men
+1 tank
+2 ACVs
+19 artillery

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vesele village of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine

Ukrainian forces successfully hit a series of substations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast overnight, knocking out power to a large portion of the border area. Russian authorities have confirmed major outages in the Glushkovsky, Rylsky, and Korenevsky districts.

Reports from Russian channels indicate overnight drone strikes hit Ryazan, with a fire breaking out at an industrial site near the Ryazan oil refinery. Additional strikes were recorded on power substations in Kursk region.

Ukraine’s 11th Corps confirms fighting on the southern outskirts of Siversk, a key stronghold on the Lyman axis. Russians tried to enter the south of the city but were reportedly stopped and eliminated. Intel suggests they are preparing new assaults with armor, clearing routes and probing logistics lines ahead of a larger push.

Partisan Resistance ——

A sudden blaze on a railway line in Perm Krai destroyed an entire train of fuel tankers. Advisor to the former Mariupol mayor Petro Andriushchenko reports that nine tank cars went up in flames, with Russian sources already calling it a sabotage attack on the rail network.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Fierce fighting continues on the ground. With the advances at Pokrovsk, Russia still hasn’t been able to seal the deal. However they are getting closer with what appears to be a push on the northern side to flank the city deeper than it has been.

A lot more aggressive russian attacks, reflecting probable efforts of the ‘winter offensive’. Fog impairment of FPV drones hurting Ukraine defenses, however, they have yet to really begin to exploit the same conditions for their counter attacks.

Rumored peace talks and plan really stink to high heaven and reflects in most ways Russia’s demand for complete capitulation of Ukraine. Isn’t going to go very far unless Russia manages a massive breakthrough on the front and even then Russia would toss any agreement to the side.

Poland –

Poland has announced that it will be closing the last remaining Russian consulate in the country, located within the city of Gdańsk, in response to Sunday’s act of sabotage against critical railway lines in Poland, which was reportedly carried out by operatives with the Russian Security Services (FSB) who have since fled into Belarus.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ongoing operations in Gaza to reduce Hamas further.

- Netanyahu visited troops in occupied S Syria.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu visited the Israeli-occupied territory in southern Syria today. Syria has launched complaints.

Netanyahu:
Today I visited the buffer zone area in Syria, received an operational briefing, and met with the fighters who bravely defend Israel every day.

***
The Knesset just advanced a bill that would shut off all electricity and water to any property registered to UNRWA and reclaim Israeli land the agency has been using for decades.

Key points
- 28–8 vote in first reading
- No utilities for any UNRWA facility
- State can seize land used by UNRWA compounds
- Comes after evidence UNRWA staff joined the Oct. 7 massacre
- ICJ still insists Israel route aid through UNRWA

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel carried out a significant wave of airstrikes earlier tonight on the Gaza Strip, targeting a reported meeting of Hamas leaders in Gaza City as well as several other terror sites in Northern and Southern Gaza.

Israeli Army Radio, quoting a security source: The airstrikes on Gaza were a response to the shooting at our soldiers in the Yellow Zone today.

***
Last night, IDF tanks advanced into Shujaeyya in Eastern Gaza City, pushing into the yellow line. Sources in Gaza report the placement of new yellow demarcation blocks deeper inside Gaza following military advances.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Situation still relatively static. Israel continues to methodically reduce Hamas presence in the Yellow Zone while taking care of business in Hamas controlled Gaza. Same for Hezbollah, Israeli airstrikes becoming more aggressive and larger.

Expect loud squealing from the UN and UNRWA. It has been pretty well documented that UNRWA has collaborated with Hamas for many years now so actions by Israel are fully justified.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Following the evacuation orders - the IDF struck several targets in southern Lebanon

Saudi Arabia –

F-35 fighter jets the U.S. plans to sell Saudi Arabia will be less advanced than those operated by Israel, in line with a U.S. law that guarantees Israel’s military edge in the region, U.S. officials and defense experts said on Wednesday - Reuters.

OBSERVATION - An Israeli concern is that these F35 would be a challenge to their air superiority in the region. Israeli F35s are already stocked with a bunch of Israeli modifications for combat in the region, so Saudi aircraft at this stage would pose little threat. Saudis already possess F15s and it hasn’t seem to affected Israeli operations against Iran or Houthis

Mexico -

(FO) The U.S. Embassy in Mexico warned U.S. citizens yesterday that there will be significant protests this afternoon in Mexico City concurrent to a military parade. The Embassy says the groups participating in the protest were also present at the 15 November protest which turned violent.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, issued her “Freedom Manifesto” yesterday calling for a regime change in Venezuela. The Manifesto also calls for a return of the “nine million Venezuelans […] forced to flee their homeland.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/18/maria-corina-machado-venezuela-freedom-manifesto/

OBSERVATION - There were a number of uprisings a few years ago against Maduro and the corrupt elections that sealed his power. He used criminal gangs (how many migrated to the US?) to violently put down those protests and leaders. Not sure if the anti-Maduro faction is strong enough to deal with open fighting, but the timing suggests it is building off US threats against his regime and ties to narco-terrorism.

Misc of Note –

Washington’s Mount Rainier has been sending up a flurry of strange signals for days, briefly raising concern that something inside the volcano might be shifting.

Since Saturday, instruments on Mount Rainier have picked up what looked like constant vibrations beneath the surface, thousands of tiny tremor-like bursts blending into one another.

The unusual seismic rumblings were detected by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN), where seismometers on Mount Rainier recorded three straight days of persistent, high-energy signals across the volcano’s west flank.

At first glance, the pattern resembled a volcanic tremor: a kind of nonstop hum or roar that forms when magma, hot water, or gas is moving around inside a volcano.

The activity at Mount Rainier began with a sharp spike around 5:00am ET on November 15. After that, the line becomes increasingly fuzzy, displaying vibrations that never seem to subside.

Later analysis, however, suggested that ice buildup on one of the seismic stations may have distorted the readings, creating the appearance of relentless tremor-like noise.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15303731/America-deadliest-volcano-tremor-phase-eruption.html

OBSERVATION - Rainier has the potential for a very deadly eruption when the next on occurs. Mud flows from melting glaciers (Lahars) will inundate vast areas (many pervious flows mapped for urban planning like flood plains), and that doesn’t even cover the cashflow and pyroclastic flows of the eruption proper.

This episode looks to have been identified. Time will tell if icing at one of the seismometer stations is the cause for what looked like volcanic, harmonic tremors.

After a balmy fall, weather realities fast approaching the Redoubt with lows in the single digits (maybe even sub zero) forecast for the end of the month. Wee doggies.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP30 climate talks evacuated after fire breaks out
Georgina Rannard and BBC climate team in Belém, Brazil

…
The talks were in the final hours of trying to agree on next steps to tackle climate but the fire has disrupted negotiations.
“It was climbing the walls and onto the ceiling. People were screaming,” Dr Harshita Umesh, who was giving a talk next to the place where they fire broke out, told BBC News.
“Then I ran, I think I tripped and fell.”

…
“People are pretty traumatised and shocked,” she added.
“There’s a huge panic, people have been running out of here, it’s a very dramatic moment… UN security guards are telling us to leave,” said BBC Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt.
“It looks actually as if they are beginning to get it under control but you can see huge columns of smoke rising up into the air through the hole that’s been burnt in the top of the conference centre.”
…
One eyewitness told the BBC that he believes an electrical fire was the cause.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/20/did-a-battery-fire-just-kill-the-cop30-climate-conference/

OBSERVATIONS - Some reports suggest that a battery (lithium?) was the source of the fire. Oh the irony.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend Forecast - Announced demonstrations in DC by “Removal Coalition”, do not appear to be mobilizing many at this stage.
Elsewhere, same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.

Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (not change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.

***
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt told Newsmax that Democrats trying to prompt military service personnel to ignore orders from President Donald Trump amounts to “treason.”

He said this needs to be stopped immediately. “And here’s the warning for the Trump administration. If you don’t hold them accountable here, this is only going to get worse.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/blaine-holt-treason-sedition/2025/11/20/id/1235432/

OBSERVATION - This general nails it. If these six democrats walk without any serious pushback or at minimum sanctions, democrats will become more aggressive. In the case of Kelly, UCMJ should fully drop down on him.

ADDITIONAL - Per 18 USC § 2387:
Whoever, with intent to interfere with, impair, or influence the loyalty, morale, or discipline of the military or naval forces of the United States:
(1)advises, counsels, urges, or in any manner causes or attempts to cause insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military or naval forces of the United States; or
(2)distributes or attempts to distribute any written or printed matter which advises, counsels, or urges insubordination, disloyalty, mutiny, or refusal of duty by any member of the military or naval forces of the United States—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both, and shall be ineligible for employment by the United States or any department or agency thereof, for the five years next following his conviction.

***
Evidence is mounting that the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) is not just a civil-rights organization supporting student protests but part of a larger, coordinated network with ties to Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other terrorist organizations. This network is paying cash rewards to students who face disciplinary action for engaging in anti-Israel protests on American campuses.

A New York Post investigation uncovered that CAIR-California paid $1,000 to students suspended, arrested, or losing housing or scholarships for their involvement in disruptive anti-Israel activism. Through its “Champions of Justice Fund,” CAIR allocated $20,000 to students leading actions such as building takeovers, blockades, and confrontations with Jewish students. These financial incentives appear designed to encourage more militant actions. As Joel Finkelstein, founder of the NCRI, explained, the payments reward “criminality and violence,” creating a structure for escalating confrontations.

https://israel365news.com/414153/cairs-cash-rewards-for-campus-unrest-and-the-extremist-network-behind-it/

OBSERVATION - Recent moslem extremism has resurrected CAIR which has been relatively dormant for many years. Follow the money, probably leads to Soros based NGO as well as terror nations like Iran and Qatar.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***

For the first time in U.S. history, arrested violent far-left defendants have admitted in federal court to being members of an organized Antifa terror cell. Seth Sikes, Joy Abigail Gibson, Lynette Read Sharp, Nathan Baumann, and John Phillip Thomas — pleaded guilty to providing material support to terrorists and being part of an Antifa cell in a July 4 ambush attack on the Prairieland ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1991684689833480585?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - How much this will do to chill Antifa violence in the future is uncertain. What is clear is that they are losing the freedom of movement in the legal realm, having dodged numerous other law suits since 2016.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

U.S. employers added a surprisingly solid 119,000 jobs in September, the government said, issuing a key economic report that had been delayed for seven weeks by the federal government shutdown.
The increase in payrolls was more than double the 50,000 economists had forecast.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-employers-added-surprisingly-solid-119000-jobs-in-september-government-says-in-delayed-report/ar-AA1QMBtL

OBSERVATION - Good news, but there are bumps too

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Department of Justice subpoenaed the personal phone records of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan in 2022, seeking the Ohio Republican’s phone data covering a more than two-year period.

The subpoena, obtained by Fox News Digital, shows a federal prosecutor who later worked on special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 investigation ordered Verizon to hand over the phone data, also known as toll records, reaching back to Jan. 1, 2020.

The request appears to be the most expansive yet of the publicly known subpoenas targeting senators and current and former House members during Arctic Frost, the investigation that led to Smith bringing election-related charges against President Donald Trump.

Smith did not begin working as special counsel until seven months after the subpoena was issued, meaning the request pre-dated his time at the DOJ.

The subpoena for Jordan’s records appears to be one of the first known ones in the Arctic Frost probe and was issued during a time when Jordan was serving as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, which conducts oversight of the DOJ.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-doj-subpoenaed-jim-jordans-phone-records-covering-more-than-two-years

OBSERVATION - People from the biden regime need jail time for this. This kind of stuff has only been seen in communist dictatorships and is the stuff revolutions are made from.

***
A federal judge ruled today that Trump’s deployment of the National Guard troops to Washington, DC was illegal.

U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb said that while Trump may be the commander in chief of the Guard, his power is constrained by federal laws that limit how those troops can be federalized and deployed, particularly in Washington, D.C., which is controlled by Congress.

“The Court rejects Defendants’ fly-by assertion of constitutional power, finding that such a broad reading of the President’s Article II authority would erase Congress’s role in governing the District and its National Guard,” Cobb wrote in a 61-page ruling.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/11/20/federal-judge-rules-trumps-national-guard-deployment-in-dc-illegal-n3809118

OBSERVATION - Another ruling by an activist judge that is going to be overturned on appeal.

***
The DNC took out a $15 million loan in October, the latest sign of financial distress for the official arm of the Democratic Party.
The party ended the month with $18.3 million in the bank — $15 million of which came from the loan.

OBSERVATION - Is this evidence that the cutoff USAID funding has hit the DNC coffers hard?

TRUMP Watch –

ABC News might soon find itself staring down another expensive defamation lawsuit from President Trump, and honestly, it wouldn’t come as a shock. On a recent episode of The View, Joy Behar confidently claimed that it was “obvious” Trump was a pedophile connected with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, implicating him in Epstein’s crimes. This wild accusation came without a shred of evidence tying Trump to Epstein’s criminal activities. In fact, Trump is arguably one of the few prominent figures who did the right thing and severed ties with Epstein years ago, unlike many Democrats who have since been ensnared in the fallout.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/11/20/joy-behar-just-put-abc-on-the-brink-of-another-huge-trump-lawsuit-n4946236

OBSERVATION - ABC and the hags at the ‘view’ just can’t keep their mouths shut. And its likely to cost them, again.

Illegal Immigration –

Last Wednesday, US District Court Judge Jeffrey Cummings ordered the Trump administration to release on $1,500 bond hundreds of detainees after he determined the arrests violated a local consent decree barring warrantless arrests of immigrants.

The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday sided with the Trump administration to keep those on the list in custody, just one day before detainees were set to be released.

Though the appeals court did not explain why it sided with the Trump administration in the detention case, its decision comes just a day after a three-judge panel with the 7th Circuit blocked a different judge’s order because they believed the judge had overstepped their authority by imposing strict limits on how federal agents could operate in Chicago.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/appeals-court-blocks-federal-judge-s-order-to-release-hundreds-of-immigrants-arrested-in-illinois-immigration-crackdown/ar-AA1QQ91L?ocid=BingNewsVerp

OBSERVATION - Some sanity at the 7th Circuit Court.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia has said it is yet to receive anything official from the US on its peace plan, after Ukraine’s Volodymr Zelensky said he was ready to work with the Trump administration on its “vision” to bring an end to the war.
The widely leaked US plan includes proposals that Kyiv had previously ruled out, such as ceding areas of the eastern Donetsk region that it still controls, reducing its army in size, and pledging not to join Nato.

Russian officials continue to reiterating their commitment to Russia’s original war aims and blaming Ukraine for Russia’s own unwillingness to compromise.

Economic Impact –

U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil firms have officially taken effect, potentially stranding 48 million barrels of Russian crude at sea, Bloomberg reports. Indian refineries are now turning to Middle Eastern suppliers, while traders scramble to reroute Rosneft and Lukoil shipments already in transit. Even in Asia, not all barrels may find buyers.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

European and Ukrainian officials are rejecting Trump’s 28-point peace proposal, calling it one-sided and tailored to satisfy Putin. The plan demands Ukraine give up territory, slash its military, and welcome Russia back into global institutions, all while European allies were shut out of the drafting process. According to the Wall Street Journal, EU leaders are preparing to unveil their own alternative peace plan, more favorable to Ukraine, within days.

***
During the night of Nov 20–21, Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine using 115 UAVs, including around 70 Shaheds. Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down or jammed 95 of them. However, 19 struck targets across 12 locations, hitting civilian areas in Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Odesa.

Russian losses as reported by Ukraine.

+1050 men
+3 ACVs
+20 artillery

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

The fight for Pokrovsk is close to coming to an end. Recent OSINT analysis indicates that Russian forces are close to closing off the pocket west of the town and that Pokrovsk is mostly under Russian control.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pokrovsk’s days are numbered. Depends on how stubborn Ukraine is.

“Peace” talks and plans have bubbled to the surface again, and Witkoff has dredged up the same old format that has gotten nowhere in the past. Trump really needs to retire this guy from the negotiations business. I can’t see Ukraine and Europe agreeing to even a 10th of what’s in the document. And of course, Russia will do the bait and switch to keep the west off balance .

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Continued strikes against Hamas across all Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu: I am pleased that Egypt is allowing anyone who wants to leave Gaza to do so, and Trump’s plan includes granting the right to leave Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli airstrikes targeted eastern Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza Strip

***
Remember the trapped Hamas terrorists in the Rafah tunnel?
There are unconfirmed reports that all communication with them has been lost since last weekend. Estimates indicate that around 80 remain trapped in the tunnel, relying on mediators to secure a “safe passage.” Many reportedly have been taken out by IDF as they tried to escape. The Chief of Staff has ordered: either they surrender with their hands raised, or they will be killed.

***
The city of Beit Hanoun ( NE corner of Gaza) is a central Hamas terror stronghold in Gaza.
Underground: Beneath civilian homes, Hamas built an extensive tunnel network.
Above ground: Thousands of structures served as weapons storage facilities, firing positions, and command centers for terrorists. Additionally, armed terrorists operated from inside an elementary school, and beneath it a tunnel shaft lead to an underground tunnel.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/65629

OBSERVATION - This was a key city set up to target Israel’s central region - Tel Aviv. The link has a very informative video on the extent of the stronghold - especially the complex tunnel network. The integration of the tunnels with schools, mosques and other ‘protected’ sites shows the depth that Hamas took to hide and protect its network.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IDF report disrupting major terror operations in Judea and Samaria this week, with extensive raids leading to numerous arrests and the seizure of firearms, explosives, and illegal weaponry. Around 15 vehicles purchased using terror-linked funds were also confiscated, and several planned attacks were stopped before they could be carried out
Israeli forces raided West Bank’s Tulkarem, Salfit, Qalqilya among other locations.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Haven’t heard from the Houthi’s or Iranian backed Iraqi militias lately.

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

The United States is currently in intense discussions with several nations in an effort to assemble the International Stabilization Force (ISF) as authorized by the recent UN Security Council Resolution 2803.

According to recent reports, besides talking to Arab and Muslim nations about contributing troops to the ISF, the U.S. is also talking to European countries, which have expressed an interest in participating in the training of Palestinian security forces who will take over the policing of the enclave after the ISF has finished its role.

https://allisraelnews.com/us-in-discussion-with-various-nations-regarding-gaza-stabilization-force-hopes-to-deploy-in-early-2026

OBSERVATION - Good luck with that.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

While the Trump administration struggles to put the bits and pieces together for a Gaza peace force - from largely uncooperative nations, Israel continues to eat away at Hamas.

Of note the declining numbers of the trapped Hamas forces within the Yellow Zone. No one is coming to their ‘aid’ so it time for the surrender or jihad death decision.

See Lebanon below as things are developing there.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that relocating Iran’s capital from Tehran has become unavoidable, citing overcrowding and limited water resources, Iran International reported on Thursday.

The government has identified the underdeveloped Makran region in southeastern Iran as a possible new capital. No timeline for the move has been announced.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-874696

OBSERVATION - Iran just doesn’t even begin to have the money for such a move. All its funds are being channeled into its military programs.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Lebanese army commander says Israeli attacks hinder the deployment of its forces in the south

Other reports that Hezbollah is working frantically to reestablish bases from which to resume attacks on Israel. Enough for the Israeli cabinet to meet in special session to decide on future actions. The limited strikes since the ceasefire haven’t been enough to stop the effort — and the Lebanese govt and military have been impotent in holding up their end of the bargain. This all points to a much more, all out air campaign by Israel, likely to begin in December, following Trumps deadline of the end of this month for Lebanon to get the job done.

It is uncertain how much Hezbollah has been able to restore its strategic weapons - guided rockets and other missiles - which will be their go to weapon of retaliation. I don’t think Hezbollah has restored its fighting strength, though I’m pretty sure all of their arms storage locations were not hit by Israel. Should sustained combat resume, Hezbollah will suffer greatly from the cut off of its supply chain thru Syria. It can get some smuggled materials, but the volumes will be lacking and increased pressure by Israel on storage locations will quickly impact Hezbollah operations. Israel’s forward deployment into S Lebanon will also disrupt Hezbollah ground attack plans into Israel.

In short, a large and likely sustained air campaign is coming, probably next month. How Hezbollah (and Lebanon) responds will have to be seen then.

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