Free Republic

KEY FACTS Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 72% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 29% as of about 8:45 p.m. EST.

An election forecaster who previously predicted a landslide victory for Vice President Kamala Harris has switched his prediction to former President Donald Trump. Thomas Miller, a data scientist who accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election result, previously backed Harris to win in 2024, telling Newsweek in September that the Democrat was on track to win more than 400 votes in the Electoral College, according to his model. The model, which relies on betting odds as opposed to polling data aggregates, is now saying that Trump is the favorite, with its most recent prediction estimating the Republican could win 345 votes...

These numbers vastly differ from the polls, particularly the national polls, which continue to show Harris ahead by a few percentage points. But which one should you believe?Maxim Lott, the guy who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, personally thinks you should believe the betting sites, not the polls.“These are really accurate,” he told Fox News. “They’re more accurate than just trying to look at polls or especially more accurate than listening to pundits bloviating. [The bettors] look at all sorts of historical data; they look at trends. I find the percent more useful than the polls.”“Last cycle we had more than a billion...

Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Betting Odds

I'm making a bold prediction today she's got this based on the following evidence: She's on the listDonald Trump Shortlist: Tulsi Gabbard's VP Chances Soar"Tulsi Gabbard's odds of becoming the 2024 Republican vice-presidential candidate surged with a leading bookmaker after Donald Trump said she was on his short list during a Fox News town hall on Tuesday".She wants itTulsi Gabbard ready to ‘serve my country’ as Trump’s vice president if asked“If that call came, I would say yes, and I'd be honored to serve my country in that way and to be in a position, first, to help win this...

What do people willing to put money down on it say about Trump in the wake of last night's closing Republican National Convention? They're in. MarketWatch reports a huge swift swing toward President Trump, a record high. Betting odds have shifted dramatically toward President Donald Trump, though former Vice President Joe Biden remains narrowly ahead. The U.K. site Betfair reported the greatest convention period improvement of any candidate since election trading began on the Betfair Exchange in 2004, as Biden's odds are the longest since May. Betfair on Friday said the current odds imply a 51% chance of Biden winning....

In a trend that began in July, the once-slumping odds that President Trump will win reelection have risen from 36% to an average of 50-50, with some gambling sites giving him a better than even chance of winning. Oddschecker’s Pete Watt said Friday that Trump’s odds haven’t been this positive since May 28, 92 days ago, and come on the morning after the president accepted the Republican Party’s nomination to run for a second term. Joe Biden still has a slight edge with the gamblers, at 52%. He had a 63% chance of winning in mid-July. “This election has ebbed...

Oddschecker.com is a great resource for those Freepers who like to follow the betting odds for the candidates. New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina primary tabs are at the top of the form.My experience with this kind of betting is that the odds don't begin to solidify until the primary gets close...and we are getting pretty close to Iowa.

Odds on U.S GOP 2016 nominee. Date: Uncertain Highlights ======= Jeb Bush 3-1 Rand Paul 5-1 Scott Walker 10-1 Ted Cruz 16-1 Mike Huckabee 28-1 Sarah Palin 33-1

Alaska : R Murkowski loses 45.0% : -1 Colorado : R Coors even bet 50% : flat to -1 Florida : R Martinez wins 63% : +1 Georgia : R Isakson wins 96.5% : +1 Illinois : D Obama wins 98.0% : -1 Louisiana : R Vitter wins 61.0% : +1 Kentucky : R Bunning wins 79.0% : flat N.C. : D Bowles loses 42.0% : +1 Oklahoma : D Carlson loses 46.0% : flat S.C. R DeMint wins 80.0% : +1 S.D. D Daschle wins 56.0% : flat