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Last week, the Politico Battleground poll showed Obama with a 1-point lead over Romney. It was consistent with their polling throughout the campaign season, with Obama clinging to a small, but steady, lead over Romney. Today's Politico poll, though, taken last week, finds a 3-point shift towards Romney. The challenger now leads Obama by 2-points among likely voters, 49-47. In the swing states, Romney leads 50-48, hitting the critical 50% threshold. Let's note at the outset that this polling sample is D+4. I think that's a slight understatement of GOP turnout, but its certainly a defensible sample. Politico, somewhat surprisingly,...

Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 --- and it's getting worse. Mitt Romney's likely voters are much more enthusiastic than his, and these numbers mainly came from polling data collected before Obama laid a debate egg in Denver: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but thereÂ’s been a notable shift of intensity from the...

The message attached to a new Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll (P-GWUBP) is a study in literary gymnastics. As hard as the authors tried to twist the data of the survey, reading it brings you to only one logical conclusion: Mitt Romney is moving toward a solid victory and probably a landslide in November. The report starts with background information whose only purpose is to try to discourage readers from sticking with “yesterday’s news” and stop reading before they get to the devastating news for Barack Obama. Once the actual report starts the “good” news for Obama fans is provided:...

In 2002 to the surprise of no careful observer, Democrat Georgia Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney was beaten in a primary and rendered unable to run for re-election. McKinney was defeated rather easily (58/42) by Denise Majette a first time candidate. Ordinarily this local primary would have little significance, but the results of a McLaughlin and Associates poll done two weeks before that Election day changes that view. The survey found that Majette had a slight lead, but the really startling news was that while McKinney enjoyed over a 90% name recognition rate, just 28% knew who her opponent was. In other...

The latest Battleground Poll numbers have been released. There have been more than twenty Battleground Polls over the last ten years, and the most consistent datum in these polls has been the response to Question D3, which asks Americans to identify their ideology. Sixty percent of Americans called themselves "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative," while thirty-six percent of Americans called themselves "very liberal" or "somewhat liberal." The Lilliputian "moderate" or "refused/don't know" has seldom for either been higher than two percent. The poll taken in late August 2011 appears to show a trend away from this overwhelming conservative majority. Question...

The latest Battleground Poll, the last before the midterm election, has just been released. It has good news for Republicans. By a margin of 48% to 42%, respondents favor Republican congressional candidates over Democrat congressional candidates...

According to Battleground Poll results over the last ten years, conservatives are about sixty percent of the population, liberals are roughly thirty-five percent, and all the others -- moderate, don't know, and refused to answer -- are consistently about five percent. Not all polls show the same results as the Battleground Poll. Many polls, which reveal only a slight amount of information on their internals or which switch the questions that the polling organization asks to fit the current needs of the left, show smaller percentages of Americans as conservative (but also smaller groups of Americans as liberals). Gallup, one...

Good news for conservatives in the latest Battleground Poll. The political implications are profound, if the already-energized conservative base takes even more initiative. In August 2008, I wrote an article on "The Biggest Missing Story in Politics." The article explains that conservatives are an overwhelming majority of America. One year later, I wrote an update on that theme, this time based on the Gallup Poll, which showed that conservatives outnumber liberals in virtually every state of the union. I have been writing about the remarkable Battleground Poll results in many articles for many years. The Battleground Poll reveals the internals...

The Battleground Poll, the most respected and thorough of all public opinion polls, released its latest results on August 20th. Although many people read this poll for the data on voter preference in upcoming elections, for voter opinions about the two major political parties, for what things matter most to voters, I always zip past this data in the first fifteen pages of poll results and go straight to Question D3, which very quietly and totally ignored proclaims the biggest missing story in American politics and which is the only story, in the long run, that really matters. I have...

Republicans who run away from President Bush will only help Democrats win control of Congress in November, top Republican pollster and strategist Ed Goeas said yesterday. Republicans would be making the same mistake as Democrats in 1994, when they ran from President Clinton, worsening the anti-incumbent atmosphere and resulting in Democrats losing both the House and the Senate. Mr. Goeas based his conclusions on results of the bipartisan George Washington University Battleground 2006 Poll released at the National Press Club. Democratic pollster and top strategist Celinda Lake said, "Republicans will not benefit from any presidential coattails. In fact, many Republicans...

Two prominent pollsters -- one a Democrat, the other a Republican -- agreed Thursday that Democrats appear poised this year to win back seats in Congress. GOP pollster Ed Goeas even conceded that "if this environment holds, you have to assume [the election] will tip for the Democrats" and they will win control of the U.S. House. Republicans have controlled the House since 1995 and currently outnumber Democrats 232 to 202 (there is one independent) But a series of ethical and political missteps have placed the Republicans at a disadvantage eight months before voters go to the polls. "[Voters] continue...

  Still Great News in the Battleground Poll by Bruce Walker 03 November 2005 Conservatives are winning, and winning convincingly, the ideological battle for the hearts and minds of Americans.I have written articles soon after the various Battleground Polls have come out over the last three years.  People trained, like the dull, illiterate drones in Bradbury's Fahrenheit 451, are accustomed to acquiring information only from images, with tools like bright colors replacing, as much as possible, the precise data of words and of numbers.  These dullards are also conditioned to believe that if information is important, it will be presented...

The November 2004 Battleground Poll shows that sixty percent of Americans consider themselves either "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative," while only thirty-three percent consider themselves "very liberal" or "somewhat liberal."I have written often about the one public opinion poll which has proven most reliable and which has provided a hidden, but vital, bit of information about America: the Battleground Poll. This poll is one of the few which are the collaboration of two partisan polling organizations, in this case a Republican polling organization, The Tarrance Group, and a Democrat polling organization, Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates. This collaboration provides a...

3-Way Race:Bush: 49% Kerry 46% Nader/Other/Undecided: 5% Definite Voters:Bush 46% Kerry 41% Unaided Ballot:Bush 46% Kerry 42% Unsure: 11% Other: 1% George W. Bush - Job Approval Rating:Approval: 53% Disapprove: 45% Unsure: 2% George W. Bush - Favorable/Unfavorable:Favorable: 55% (41% Strongly) Unfavorable: 43% (33% Strongly) No Opinion: 2% John Kerry - Favorable/Unfavorable:Favorable: 52% (33% Strongly) Unfavorable: 46% (35% Strongly) No Opinion: 3% Safeguarding America from a terrorists threat:Bush 56% Kerry 36% None/Unsure: 8% Dealing with Iraq:Bush 55% Kerry 40% None/Unsure: 6% Creating jobs:Bush 41% Kerry 50% None/Unsure: 9% Keeping America prosperous:Bush 46% Kerry 46% None/Unsure: 8% Is a strong leader:Bush...

The rock solid statistic in the latest Battleground Poll, the number that actually means something, the salient political fact that I have been raising in articles for the last several years, is found in the "housekeeping" section of the questionnaire: Question D3 on Page 11 of the sixteen page questionnaire. It bears repeating: "When thinking about politics, do you consider yourself to be..." and then it lists six options for responders, which are "Very conservative," "Somewhat conservative," "Moderate," "Somewhat liberal," "Very Liberal," and "Unsure/Refused." Precise recitation of these options is important because Leftists typically respond to polls which show that...

Washington-AP -- President Bush doesn't seem to be lagging behind Democrat John Kerry in the polls -- despite widespread worries about Iraq. A new poll suggests the reasons for that may be personal. A pollster says Bush appears to hold an edge among voters when it comes to strong leadership, saying what he believes, and being steady. The pollster says Kerry still has problems with some voters seeing him as "flip-flopping" on the issues. A bipartisan Battleground Poll sponsored by a Washington college finds Bush and Kerry running about even among likely voters, with 48 percent each in a two-way...

The Battleground Poll shows the economy and the war on terror are the keys to the election. As I have noted in several past articles, the Battleground Poll is the most accurate, most balanced and most understandable of all the myriad polls which float in and out of the daily news. One Republican and one Democrat polling organization collaborate to provide a detailed, objective and accurate analysis of public opinion. The Battleground Poll does not ask questions like “Which would you prefer more, reelecting President Bush or preventing Armageddon?” The last of four Battleground Polls in the Bush Presidency was...

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) appears vulnerable on several fronts, including support for whether he deserves re-election and worries about the country's direction, but Democratic rival John Kerry (news - web sites) has been unable to capitalize on those weaknesses, a bipartisan poll suggests. The result six months before the Nov. 2 presidential election is a tight race between a vulnerable incumbent and a challenger who has not yet defined himself, according to the Battleground 2004 poll released Wednesday. The survey was conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. Bush and Kerry were...