Posted on 10/31/2004 10:49:50 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
3-Way Race:
Bush: 49%
Kerry 46%
Nader/Other/Undecided: 5%
Definite Voters:
Bush 46%
Kerry 41%
Unaided Ballot:
Bush 46%
Kerry 42%
Unsure: 11%
Other: 1%
George W. Bush - Job Approval Rating:
Approval: 53%
Disapprove: 45%
Unsure: 2%
George W. Bush - Favorable/Unfavorable:
Favorable: 55% (41% Strongly)
Unfavorable: 43% (33% Strongly)
No Opinion: 2%
John Kerry - Favorable/Unfavorable:
Favorable: 52% (33% Strongly)
Unfavorable: 46% (35% Strongly)
No Opinion: 3%
Safeguarding America from a terrorists threat:
Bush 56%
Kerry 36%
None/Unsure: 8%
Dealing with Iraq:
Bush 55%
Kerry 40%
None/Unsure: 6%
Creating jobs:
Bush 41%
Kerry 50%
None/Unsure: 9%
Keeping America prosperous:
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
None/Unsure: 8%
Is a strong leader:
Bush 54%
Kerry 39%
None/Unsure: 7%
Shares your values:
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%
None/Unsure: 6%
Right/Wrong Track:
Right: 42%
Wrong: 53%
Unsure: 6%
Congress:
Republican: 46%
Democrat: 43%
Undecided: 11%
Dumb question alert: What is an "unaided ballot"?
53% job approval.......thats a 1984 reagan-like number
It's hard to imagine internal numbers like this not leading to a Bush Victory.
Could mean two things...:
1> That means it's just between the two candidates, ie no nader.
2> That's the results not counting the democRATs vote fraud.
an "unaided ballot" is when a pollster asks who a person is
voting for without giving any choices.
That's where you ask 'who will you be voting for this year' without giving them names.
Otherwise, the question is asked 'will you be voting for john kerry, George W Bush, or ralph nader'.
It usually indicates a greater commitment to and knowledge of a candidate, because it makes the responder come up with his own answer, instead of just picking from a list.
The internals do look good for Bush. They might as well throw the wrong track, right track numbers out of the poll: they don't predict anything about Bush just general issues that could include such things as cultural dislike for Hollywood.
its crazy, all the internals in many polls are very good for Bush, yet that translates to a couple points up on Kerry. They must treat the internals different from the popular vote numbers? Just doesnt make sense otherwise.
That's where they don't give you a choice but just ask who you will vote for. You have to know the name of the candidate.
Unaided simply means the questioner asked, "Who will you vote for?" without offering names.
actually it's 55%
Thank You.
"Dumb question alert: What is an "unaided ballot"?"
It is their likely voter screen. They ask "which candidate are you probably going to vote for?" instead of mentioning the name Bush/Kerry or Republican/Democrat. If you don't know the name of the men running are are probably not going to vote.
For those that want to mention that Battleground was highly unreliable please not they stopped polling two weeks before the election in 2000. By all accounts there was a large swing the last four days of the election in 2000.These guys are very good.Since it is bipartisan there is no sauce to tilt one way or another.
The unaided ballot numbers I believe could be a pretty big deal. Notice Kerry only got 42%. That makes me think the remaining percentage that he got in the 3 way question are the "not really likely" to go to the polls Tuesday....If they needed a list to choose from, I doubt they follow national politics at all and consequently have little motivation to vote.
Yep. In 1996, the Right track number was only 39% and Clinton still won.
It is confusing. But, remember, Bush is down in those domestic number internals. Bush is up, though, because the election is about terrorism and not those demestic issues. The Bush campaign deserves a lot of credit for getting to focus on Bush's best issue.
look again,amigo...55 is favorablility....job approval is 53 :)
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