Posted on 03/03/2006 10:18:21 AM PST by Mount Athos
Two prominent pollsters -- one a Democrat, the other a Republican -- agreed Thursday that Democrats appear poised this year to win back seats in Congress. GOP pollster Ed Goeas even conceded that "if this environment holds, you have to assume [the election] will tip for the Democrats" and they will win control of the U.S. House.
Republicans have controlled the House since 1995 and currently outnumber Democrats 232 to 202 (there is one independent) But a series of ethical and political missteps have placed the Republicans at a disadvantage eight months before voters go to the polls.
"[Voters] continue to be very dissatisfied with the government and that sets the stage for change," said Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake of Lake Snell Perry Mermin and Associates.
She and Goeas, who heads the Republican strategy firm, The Tarrance Group, Thursday released their latest George Washington University Battleground Poll.
Lake likened the political environment to the 1994 elections in which Republicans aggressively campaigned on a plan to reform Congress, calling it the Contract with America. Republicans won the majority of the seats for the first time in 40 years.
According to the survey of 1,000 registered likely voters from Feb. 12 to the 15, 46 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress from their district, while 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican. There was a 3 percent margin of error.
Congressional job approval was also fairly low, with 56 percent of voters expressing their disapproval. More voters believe that the Democrats in Congress will be better at solving the biggest problems facing the U.S. than Republicans.
"For the first time we're seeing Democrats emerging ahead on dealing with the problems facing the country. You see Democrats emerging with a very clear advantage on the economy, which is quite important because in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, voters were not clear what the Democratic alternatives on the economy were," said Lake.
Although almost two thirds of voters believe America is on the wrong track, Goeas said, "I don't see an anti-Republican mood. I don't see an anti-Democrat mood. I see an anti-Washington mood."
Goeas noted that Republicans have an advantage because they have control of both houses of Congress and the presidency to make changes before November, swaying public opinion in their favor and against what Democrats have termed the "culture of corruption."
"If we have a leader we can make those changes now, versus waiting till after an election," he said.
Goeas pointed to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as that leader. With 65 percent of respondents viewing him favorably, McCain has strong support among Republicans and Democrats, according to Goeas.
"In John McCain you have the one individual we have at a national level who is seen as a reformer, seen by the American public as in a position to change things," Goeas said.
Lake noted that while McCain is viewed favorably, he often disagrees with President Bush, whose job approval rating came in at 46 percent. "The President is a drag on his party," Lake noted.
She said Republicans have already begun to voice their disagreements with the Bush administration on issues such as the Dubai port deal, the National Security Agency's wiretapping program, immigration reform and the response to Hurricane Katrina.
But Goeas warned against Republicans turning their backs on the president, saying that the strategy would only hurt them in this year's elections.
And the Detroit Lions are poised to win next year's Super Bowl.
B.S. The way House seats have been gerrymandered only 33 real contests appear on the horizon.
I vote every time our polling place is open. I'll be there for our local primaries and also in November.
If they do it will not be because I sat at home on election day.
Nothing new under the sun. Principled Republicans will vote for the rightward most candidate who is viable. That will be the Republican.
The party in power usually loses seats in off year elections. We'll lose a handful, but our lead is big enough to survive this, provided we all get out and become activists.
Because, you see, the only, and I mean ONLY, principled stand is to oppose the leftward most candidate running for office. That will always be the Democrat in this particular time in America, in every single race.
The only way to have even the barest chance to make any progress on matters is to ensure the Democrats do not make major gains in Congress this year.
All FR stalwarts must send money to GOP candidates in vulnerable districts, or perhaps volunteer their time for those campaigns. Remember the Texas Strike Force in 2004. It does not matter if you live in those districts. Prevention of Democrat victory is vital.
I think that poll fails to take into account Democrats. As in, the ridiculously lame candidate they'll choose for themselves in the primaries.
Needless to say, I'm not too worried.
"For the first time we're seeing Democrats emerging ahead on dealing with the problems facing the country."
Only if b*tching about something can solve a problem do the Dems have a solution.
Kind of like how everybody wants to get rid of pork, except their own.
IF IT HAPPENS, you want to see DFems stop using the term "bipartisan"?
Yeah. Right.
Oh, please please please do hold your breath waiting for the demonrat takeover.
Dream on.
Doesn't work to push this early. Plod along and let the MSM throw their dirt...then overwhelm them closer to the election.
Ask Presidents Kerry, Dukakis, and Mondale how they like February polling.
Exactly. All of these polls about who people want to have in control of Congress are meaningless. Many people can be very unhappy about how things are in Congress, but they are still happy with their own representative. I live in a very conservative district, yet we had a Democrat (albeit a fairly conservative one) as our congressman for well over a decade, in his last several elections the GOP didn't even run anyone against him.
The Tarrance Group has a good track record. But the House will come down to the individual elections and districts.
Excellent, let the DUmmies swoon, 8 months is an eternity in politics.
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